US Home Values Bottomed Out?

[dreamweaver]

Are there any financial/economist/predictors out there? What are your opinions on the housing slump that has affected many parts of the country? How long do you think it will last before prices are on the rise again? So many of us are just hanging in waiting for our northern homes to sell so we can finally make it down to TV. Opinions????

[graciegirl]

Looking at my watch. In my opinion it should bottom out soon.

My opinion only, for what it is worth. We bought in April. Got a new home for what we considered a very good price. I think some are lower still here.

As my sainted mother would say about your selling your house. "Things are bound to get better soon".

[barbie]

Prices here in Maryland are the same as they were a year ago. Nothing has dropped but things are just sitting too. We put our house on the market in mid April after returning from our annual winter in TV and its just not moving. We should have made the move a year ago but it just wasn't the time. A year ago our house would have sold within the first couple of weeks. Now we can't get people in to look. There is just so much inventory out there now.

If it ever sells we'll be one of "The Village People" to. If its meant to be it will happen.

Its not like we're miserable here. There is just so much more for us in TV.

[784caroline]

IN N Va I have been reading it will not get any better until mid 2009 at the earliest. Even that prediction does not mean price increases.....most likely it means stabilization of prices and not reductions. Since the fall of 2006 prices home prices (400-500K range) have dropped about 21% but there are still many houses available who cannot sell even with a 21% price reduction. There is simply put alot of inventory out there either foreclosures or people that need to move and cant. Once things start to stabilize in fall 2009 and into 2010, you then will have the people who rented instead of selling and NOW have to sell for tax purposes ie need to live in your principal residence 2 out of the last 5 years for no capital gain tax. This will result in another increase in the number of properties available for sale which would not be good for price appreciation. In fact the people who NEED to sell because of tax reasons could actually bring the market price back down because of the "time" issue an these properties may be harder to sell since they are now occupied by tennants!
My prediciton is that it is not going to be the hey-days in real estate (2004-2005) for a number of years to come.

[chuckinca]

Read in the San Francisco paper today that 44% of May home sales in Contra Costa County and 26% ditto in Alameda County were foreclosures. These are the two "East Bay" counties with a total population of about 2.5 Mil. The article further stated that due to the large number of foreclosure sales it was driving the average sales prices down to about 25% of what it was at the peak; however, sales of non foreclosed homes were only about 5 - 7% lower than the peak. Historically, foreclosure sales are much lower than normal sales.

[jadebox]

My friend, a Realtor, in San Antonio sold 6 homes this month. I need to ask him if the sellers got good prices for them.

[tkret]

Don't forget that the MAJOR job layoffs haven't begun yet. Of course, the airlines and banks have started to furlough employees but what about the other industries once the consumer really starts keeping the purse closed. When the other parts of the economy look to conserve cash by letting employees go, foreclosures will rise even further. This is the worse housing mess since the Great Depression. 2009 is too early for the end. IMHO we're only in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game hoping it doesn't go into extra innings.
Keep an eye on the unemployment rate; layoffs are the enemy of housing.

[784caroline]

HOPE
Any house can sell if you give it away and alot of people have to do that in ordder to move on with their lives. Granted not all major markets are effected as much as others but from what I am reading MOST are. Houses are selling in N Va but at dramatically reduced prices. The fact that they are selling is GOOD...but there are alot of them out there!

[Barefoot]

Selling at market value is not "giving your house away". It is accepting what a willing purchaser will pay, and moving on with your life. Prices now in TV are also low. Win/win!

A Villages sales rep tells me that due to the increase in gas prices, and the cost of purchasing and transporting building materials, the price of Villages new homes will soon be going up. Hard to see how this can happen if the prices elsewhere are going down! But the Villages Sales Department has always maintained that because TV is "unique", the price decreases aren't as severe in TV.

I hope that tkret is wrong, but IMHO, I think he may be right.


When the other parts of the economy look to conserve cash by letting employees go, foreclosures will rise even further. 2009 is too early for the end. IMHO we're only in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game hoping it doesn't go into extra innings.

[Franz and Pat]

We live in Maine, on the water with a dock and a deep salt water mooring for a boat. We thought we would have no trouble selling. Think again. We have lowered the price 50K since it went on the market-- no takers. Only three lookers. With the high fuel costs even the boaters are down about 50%. Well, we got tired of waiting and bought in the villages about a month ago. Will be down in October. Will return to Maine next summer to try again. It sort of gets one down. But thinking on the bright side-- we are moving on with our life. See you in the fall.

Franz and Pat :bigthumbsup:

[tkret]

Here is food for thought: historically when the inventory of unsold homes on the market is at 6 months or under, prices tend to rise. However, when that figure rises above 6 months, of course the opposite takes place. Currently, on a national level, the inventory of unsold homes is just under 10 months with some areas of the country significantly higher than that.

When a merchant has too much inventory on his store shelves he has no alternative than to put it on sale. Homeowners, although they don't think so, MUST price their homes to market. They must price it at what a consumer (buyer) is willing to pay for it.

[dreamweaver]

Thanks for all interesting input. From your comments and from what I'm hearing on the news, the hard hit areas will not begin to rebound for at least another year to year and a half. In fact, perhaps we haven't seen the end of the decline yet - especially in places like the Northeast. Trouble is that the foreclosures are bringing our property values down. Those who bought 3 years ago have seen a decline in value of approximately 13% - so far. Can you imagine the influx of people to TV once the market gets back on track, whatever back on track means.

[inda50]

Don't forget that the MAJOR job layoffs haven't begun yet. Of course, the airlines and banks have started to furlough employees but what about the other industries once the consumer really starts keeping the purse closed. When the other parts of the economy look to conserve cash by letting employees go, foreclosures will rise even further. This is the worse housing mess since the Great Depression. 2009 is too early for the end. IMHO we're only in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game hoping it doesn't go into extra innings.
Keep an eye on the unemployment rate; layoffs are the enemy of housing.


I agree, with all the news I think it may only be the sixth inning

[captain1202]

Agree with "tkret".

Some things to think about.....

Gas at $4,$5,$6 /gallon. Who can afford 100 mile commutes on a daily basis?

Food prices increasing dramatically due to drought, floods, ethanol, etc. up about 23% year over year.

Heating oil at sky hi prices...$650 for a tank fill. That shoe will drop this fall.

Increases to come from utilities for energy related costs.

Municipalities increasing taxes due to revenue shortfalls

Not to mention bank failures, and the soon to arrive consumer credit crisis.

Oh, and the likely bankruptcy of at least one major auto maker and perhaps more than one major airline.

The dollar is dropping like a stone due to the Fed's lame policies which is and will continue to wreak havoc on the cost of our imports, which if you haven't noticed is just about EVERYTHING we use on a daily basis.

These are just the basics. Seriously, does anyone remember a time when so many thing s were lining up in a financial "Perfect Storm"? I don't.

It's all going to be a BIG problem on folks with fixed incomes VERY soon.

Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.....

[graciegirl]

We need to stop the bleeding. Try to encourage legislation to keep people from getting loans with ARM and making them have a down payment. Hopefully this awful time will scare people into realizing that the old habits of saving and living within your income are good ones.

The oil issue is not easily resolved and that is frightening. We will have to make drastics changes there. I am absolutely without an answer.

[Boomer]

OK, folks. This is what's up. I did not know I was going to write this. I did not plan to stay so long at the keyboard this morning. I tuned in to this thread. And whoops! I was off and running. (typing) I am not a cutter nor am I a paster. I just tell stories. You do not have to read them. But here goes:

I wish I could find out who said, "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it is bad economics."

I am a fan of business. But lending industry practices that we have witnessed recently do not resemble ethical business in any way, shape, or form. The bloated in DC have been so wined, dined, and propped up by lobbyists that they can no longer recognize ethical business practices, if they ever could.

The CEO of one of the largest lenders was selling his stock through programmed stock sales. Yeah, I know. That's legal. He set it up ahead of time. And he and so many other lenders set up those wide-eyed American Dreamers.

I am weary of hearing, "But the borrowers should have known." Yeah, they should have. But they did not. And their lenders knew they did not. And their Congress knew they did not. There seem to be no laws to protect the American people from the lending industry. Things have happened that should never have happened. And we will all pay.

I don't care about the speculators. I do care about those first home buyers who walked right into it, trusting the guy with the briefcase and the big desk, telling them what they wanted to hear. Vile stuff out there. And we will all pay.

I saw it coming. And I am certainly not a learned economist.

In the fall of 2006, I actually rescued a good friend's daughter from one of these loans. We are talking about a smart young woman with a good job who was walking right straight toward the wall, the cliff, whatever. Her parents could not get her attention. She was hell-bent on doing this "on her own." And thought she understood it. She is in her 20's. And she knows how to do some serious math. Whoda thought?

I asked if she would at least let her dad introduce her to someone at their local, longtime, conservative, bricks and mortar bank to see what that lending department could offer her. It worked out fine. I have no idea why she listened to me. But she did.

There is another circumstance that I have seen up close. A couple in their late 30's who are family friends transferred west. Both have excellent jobs. They bought last fall in a nice neighborhood, getting what they thought was a good deal.

They had to sell their SC house for less, but they felt they were buying for less and the new jobs dictated a move.

This couple knew not to get into the wrong kind of mortgage. And they did not. This young couple did everything they were supposed to do.

And they settled into their new and quite lovely neighborhood.

Now they are watching their neighbors walk away. They are watching their neighborhood turn to rental where possible. They are watching growing grass and general property neglect. They are surrounded by yards that have unmaintained pools. They are even seeing multiple families live in one house. And we are talking about those Ken & Barbie houses. And this young couple did things as they should have been done.

I care about the people in my little stories. I care about those who are like them. Those I do not know. And I care about the fact that we will all pay in one way or another, or in many, many ways. And I care that those who should pay, will not.

So anyway, you did not have to read it. If you are reading this sentence, I guess you did. I did not intend to write it. But I did. So I will hit send. And I will move forward with my life. But I will still care very much. And I still believe that "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it is bad economics." And I still wish I knew who said it. And I wish I had.

I just looked back and saw that I did not give my opinion, directly anyway, on when the overall housing market will bottom. Well, I do so love my sayings. And one of my favorites is "It's not over 'til the fat lady sings." And I'm sad to say that I don't hear her. And I'm really sad to say that I'm not even sure she is approaching the stage. I guess, truth be told, I don't even think I see her limo pulling up to the theater.

Boomer

[tkret]

Note what the Chief Economist of LendingTree.com says about the prospect of the end of this mess. His opinion is in the middle of the article.

http://www.kansascity.com/438/story/684260.html


Don't forget that the MAJOR job layoffs haven't begun yet. Of course, the airlines and banks have started to furlough employees but what about the other industries once the consumer really starts keeping the purse closed. When the other parts of the economy look to conserve cash by letting employees go, foreclosures will rise even further. This is the worse housing mess since the Great Depression. 2009 is too early for the end. IMHO we're only in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game hoping it doesn't go into extra innings.
Keep an eye on the unemployment rate; layoffs are the enemy of housing.

[ConeyIsBabe]

WOW Boomer......... that was interesting; makes sense to me.

I'm-a-thinking I might just stay put, hold on to my savings, and wait it out :dontknow:

[captain1202]

Boomer,
Great piece. The most disturbing thing about it all is the complete lack of ANY leadership in Washington around any of these issues. It's almost like they are letting it happen.
I just get so furious about the whole thing I can't even articulate it.

[another Linda]

Thanks so much for your post, Boomer. My daughter is also in a bad situation with this mess. No, she didn't get an ARM and she isn't in danger of losing her house. But both she and her husband now have close to 2 hour commutes and a new baby. They'd love to move closer to their jobs but the house is now worth probably $20K less than the mortgage on it. If they did sell, not only would they have nothing to put down on another house, they'd still owe a bundle on this one. A realtor told them to just walk away, but then who would give them another mortgage? And I'm sure they aren't alone.

[railroader12]

Great article Boomer. I just purchased in Hemingway village, unable to wait for the market to turn around. Plus we got a great price, even made a few dollars according to the prices on TV's web sit. I had my house on the market since January here in South New Jersey and no takers. We are selling it our selves, had open houses with visitors but no buyers. Two years ago, this house would have sold in less then a week. But it's like you say, no one in DC is listing or even cares. It seems the name of the game is GREED.

[tkret]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080702/usa_paulson_economy.html

[Happy62]

OK, folks. This is what's up. I did not know I was going to write this. I did not plan to stay so long at the keyboard this morning. I tuned in to this thread. And whoops! I was off and running. (typing) I am not a cutter nor am I a paster. I just tell stories. You do not have to read them. But here goes:

I wish I could find out who said, "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it is bad economics."

I am a fan of business. But lending industry practices that we have witnessed recently do not resemble ethical business in any way, shape, or form. The bloated in DC have been so wined, dined, and propped up by lobbyists that they can no longer recognize ethical business practices, if they ever could.

The CEO of one of the largest lenders was selling his stock through programmed stock sales. Yeah, I know. That's legal. He set it up ahead of time. And he and so many other lenders set up those wide-eyed American Dreamers.

I am weary of hearing, "But the borrowers should have known." Yeah, they should have. But they did not. And their lenders knew they did not. And their Congress knew they did not. There seem to be no laws to protect the American people from the lending industry. Things have happened that should never have happened. And we will all pay.

I don't care about the speculators. I do care about those first home buyers who walked right into it, trusting the guy with the briefcase and the big desk, telling them what they wanted to hear. Vile stuff out there. And we will all pay.

I saw it coming. And I am certainly not a learned economist.

In the fall of 2006, I actually rescued a good friend's daughter from one of these loans. We are talking about a smart young woman with a good job who was walking right straight toward the wall, the cliff, whatever. Her parents could not get her attention. She was hell-bent on doing this "on her own." And thought she understood it. She is in her 20's. And she knows how to do some serious math. Whoda thought?

I asked if she would at least let her dad introduce her to someone at their local, longtime, conservative, bricks and mortar bank to see what that lending department could offer her. It worked out fine. I have no idea why she listened to me. But she did.

There is another circumstance that I have seen up close. A couple in their late 30's who are family friends transferred west. Both have excellent jobs. They bought last fall in a nice neighborhood, getting what they thought was a good deal.

They had to sell their SC house for less, but they felt they were buying for less and the new jobs dictated a move.

This couple knew not to get into the wrong kind of mortgage. And they did not. This young couple did everything they were supposed to do.

And they settled into their new and quite lovely neighborhood.

Now they are watching their neighbors walk away. They are watching their neighborhood turn to rental where possible. They are watching growing grass and general property neglect. They are surrounded by yards that have unmaintained pools. They are even seeing multiple families live in one house. And we are talking about those Ken & Barbie houses. And this young couple did things as they should have been done.

I care about the people in my little stories. I care about those who are like them. Those I do not know. And I care about the fact that we will all pay in one way or another, or in many, many ways. And I care that those who should pay, will not.

So anyway, you did not have to read it. If you are reading this sentence, I guess you did. I did not intend to write it. But I did. So I will hit send. And I will move forward with my life. But I will still care very much. And I still believe that "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it is bad economics." And I still wish I knew who said it. And I wish I had.

I just looked back and saw that I did not give my opinion, directly anyway, on when the overall housing market will bottom. Well, I do so love my sayings. And one of my favorites is "It's not over 'til the fat lady sings." And I'm sad to say that I don't hear her. And I'm really sad to say that I'm not even sure she is approaching the stage. I guess, truth be told, I don't even think I see her limo pulling up to the theater.

Boomer


YEP YOPU NEED TO GET A HOBBY -- Way too long to read

[Boomer]

but, but, but, but, but, but, Happy 62,

You said, "YEP YOPU (sic) NEED TO GET A HOBBY -- way too long to read."

And you yelled the first part at me.

sniff. sniff. sniff.

but, but, but, but, but, a few people liked it I think. sniff. sniff.

And, and, and, and, I am really a pretty nice lady. And I try to never be rude to anybody on here.

sniff. sniff. sniff. sniff.

And if you tell me who was making you read it, I will ask them politely to stop making you read stuff.

sniff. sniff. sniff. sniff. sniff.

but. but. . .

But right now I am going to go play with the alligators.

sniff. sniff. sniff.

but. but. but, Happy62, justsoyaknow, that was only the first chapter.

Boomer

[Peggy D]

Things here at the Delaware shore are at a standstill as far as houses being sold.

How bad is it?

A house down the street from us that when put on the market a year ago was listed at $600,000, a fair price for this house. The price was reduced to $400,000 this season
--and it still hasn't sold!!!

[samhass]

Don't cry, boomer. I loved your post. :bigthumbsup: I think you are a very smart lady and I never want to get to the point that I refuse to read a good post because it's "to long".
Let your fingers fly!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 040

[travelstiles]

:agree:
Boomer,
The post was not too long, and it said just enough to make me think about those individuals you described and really feel for them. There is something basically wrong when CEOs who mismanage a company walk away with huge golden parachutes. Many of us have seen it first hand, and the company cuts never seem to affect those who made the very decisions that caused the problems to begin with.
Individuals shareholders have very little say, as the large mutual funds and pension funds (in addition to wealthy foreign investors) make the calls that are perpetuating these problems, and it all boils down to the next quarterly profit report.
I am not saying there is anything wrong with profits, but there is no longer any long-term corporate (or government) strategy. Everything is focused on the next election or the next earnings report.
Yet how many of us even read, no less vote, on proxy statements when we receive them?
Financial education, disclosure and more transparency in corporate governance are needed.
I know, this was probably too long as well, but maybe we've all become too accustomed to "sound bites" and need to delve more deeply into the issues.
Thanks, Boomer, for your thoughts.

[Villages Kahuna]

If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in as much trouble as is being reported we aren't anywhere near the bottom of home prices.

Basically, the problem is this...Fannie and Freddie guarantee a huge proportion of the home mortgages made in the U.S. The losses being incurred because of the flood of sub-prime loans and now the resulting foreclosures has placed the underlying capital of Freddie and Fannie under tremendous stress. I've heard several experts say that they're nowhere near insolvency, but the financial markets are reacting in a way that they will have a very difficult time raising the money they need to continue to do their business.

That means that mortgage loans will become very, very difficult to get. Only the absolute most creditworthy borrowers are going to be able to get loans. The basic protection that any lender seeks in circumstances like this is to reduce the "loan-to-value" ratio that they'll lend. So, if lots and lots of buyers who might like to buy a house can't get financing, or if they can only borrow 60 or 70% of the purchase price, the number of homes sold is going to decline precipitously. But there will still be home owners who absolutley have to sell their homes. That could include lenders who own homes from foreclosure, people who are transferred by their companies who have agreed to "underwite" the sale of the transferred emplyee's house, or people who have very low mortgages outstanding on their houses and are willing to sell at a very low price just to get out. All those types of circumstances result in much lower sales prices for houses. MUCH lower!

So much of the future of home prices and home sales rests on the willingness of lenders to make loans. And without Fannie or Freddie to guarantee those loans, I think you're going to find lenders sitting on the sidelines for quite some time to come. I think that there is a reasonable argument that can be made for a further precipitous drop in home prices in the next year or so.

[Barefoot]

I think that there is a reasonable argument that can be made for a further precipitous drop in home prices in the next year or so.

Kahuna, I agree.

Interestingly, I have been recently warned by a Village agent that TV will soon be increasing prices on new homes because building supply costs are escalating due to increases in transportation costs. The Village agents insist the market decline hasn't really affected Village home prices because it is a "unique" market. That has always been their "party line" in spite of much evidence to the contrary. (If you peruse the MLS site, almost every house listed has been reduced in price, many substantially.)

[inda50]

thanks for your input Boomer and all the rest. Housing is still supply and demand, like just about every thing else, and at this time oil seems to be in demand, house owner in supply, jobs decreasing, not good situation for the country I love. Even rougher for the newer generation. No solution in sight, both candidates spouting the same old Republican and Democrate dogma.

[tkret]

still no sign of a bottom...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19953440/
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080724/home_sales.html

[l2ridehd]

Washington is doing nothing to solve these problems because they want bad news.* And housing and gas affect all of us so they are partying in the streets.* I live here and see it.* Congress will never take any action as long as they think bad news will cause voters to give them more power.* Get rid of the incumbents in both parties and continue to do that until they respond to voters.* Congress approval rating has fallen from 34% to 9% in the last two years.* It is because we elected a Democratic congress and have a Republican President.* Would be the same if it was reversed.* Nancy Polosi and the current incumbents will do NOTHING to solve ANY problem until after January 2009.* It's all about power.*

So my best guess is that action by DC will occur next January February time frame.* Those actions will start to have an impact by May or June and everything will be grand before the next elections.* Again all about power.* That cycle will happen regardless of who wins in November.*

However those that plan to buy in TV over the next 12 to 18 months should do it soon if at all possible.* Figure out what it will cost you to carry two homes for that amount of time and see if it makes sense to buy before prices head back up.* Buying now could save you as much as 25% of what it will cost you after your home sells.* So if your buying a 250K home in TV and your carrying costs for a year are 25K, you would probably save 25K by doing it now.* Later on that 250K home will be 300K.* Besides that you can at least start enjoying it now and over the longer term you will end up saving money.* TV does have a unique market and because of that it was one of the last places prices dropped and it will be one of the first to recover.* So IMHO now is a really good time to buy and carry two homes for a year.* Remember investment advise 101, buy when things are out of favor, sell when everyone else is buying.* If that is even a little bit true, now is the best time you will ever have to be a Villages owner.*

[ConeyIsBabe]

WAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal :'( :'( :'( Now I'm really depressed :'( :'(

On the phone..... ordering another truckload of madrone - for the wood stove :dontknow:

[Sidney Lanier]

At the risk of being accused of being a 'chicken little' by those who maintain in the face of what's going on around us that everything is just hunky dory (everything from stalled real estate to gas and heating oil prices to more and more foreclosures and the Fannie May/Freddie Mac situation to increases in the prices of food and just about everything else because of increased transportation costs and ... and ... and ... and ... you get the point ...), I believe that we are far from the end of what's going on.

However, to go back to the specific topic about whether real estate prices have reached their bottom and are starting back up, the best anyone's crystal ball can predict is that (1) it's really unknown at this point and (2) it's also going to depend where--this is a BIG country. Doesn't help much, does it? We ourselves were fortunate in that it was our intention to be snowbirds, so we didn't have to sell to buy in TV, but we know and are concerned about so many others who are caught between a rock and a hard place....

[Donna]

S.L., I really didn't need to read this....LOL

A BIG Rock, and a very, HARD place!! :yikes: :yikes: :yikes: :yikes:

[Just Susan]

I agree Donna. This is not the kind of thing those of us who are trying to get to TV needs to read.

It is hard enough keeping up a positive attitude.

I don't mean "rose colored glasses", "head in the sand while the world caves in around you" attitude either. I mean trying to stay motivated and upbeat, when you are up against impossible odds and an economy that is the result of Corporate greed and political Laissez-faire economics.

Of course the posters have the right to discuss this topic here, I just have to keep myself away from this kind of posting...or learn to love being depressed.

[Sidney Lanier]

Sorry, Donna and Susan&Tom, just an opinion; I could be (and wish I am) dead wrong....

[Donna]

Don't worry S.L., I love you anyway!!http://www.millan.net/minimations/smileys/yes.gif (http://www.millan.net)

I am trying to keep a positive attitude, homes are still selling in TV, anfd that is a good sign...http://www.millan.net/minimations/smileys/blissysmile.gif (http://www.millan.net)

Lets keep a positive attitude peeps...

[chuckinca]

In our Norcal East Bay neighborhood:

A home across the street put up a 4 sale sign two weeks ago and now has a sale pending sign! And not a vacant foreclosed property.

The two vacant, foreclosed homes across the street have had 4 sales signs up for six months or so - both have sold in the past month. No more vacant homes on our block!!!


Can offers over asking prices be far behind ? ? ?

[captain1202]

Anyone interested in a GREAT overview of what's going on in the financial markets should pick up Kevin Phillips new book, "Bad Money". Also on audio.

It's a fascinating treatise on the whole run-up to what we're experiencing now and how it's all been orchestrated by the Fed and the money people to create a financial industry that will replace the manufacturing and computer industries being shipped overseas.

I'm only 3/4 of the way through and will read it again to absorb it all but it really answers a lot of questions.

[Boomer]

I cannot stay away from matters of real estate. I have had a fascination with real estate since the late 70's. I was in junior high school at the time. (Boomer lies sometimes. This is one of those places where it is best to just smile and nod and not make any sudden moves. )

Actually, I like to learn what I can about money stuff in general. There is nothing sophisticated about the self-educating I have been doing for a lot of years. It's just an interest.

For anyone who does not know about this program but might be interested, I am linking you here to one of my favorite sources for that unsophisticated self-education of mine. This is NPR's "Marketplace Money." This is the weekend edition which is on for an hour.

Several topics each week are given a little once-over. This is the one from last weekend. Real estate is among the many topics visited. You can listen if you want to while you continue to read TOTV or whatever. That's what I do sometimes.

It was either this past weekend's show or the one before where, if I am remembering it right, somebody said to keep an eye on California because as goes California so goes the nation where real estate is concerned. But I can't swear that this is where I heard that one.

So anyway, here's a little light listening, nothing sophisticated about it, but I sure like it, "Marketplace Money" weekend edition.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/episodes/show_rundown.php?show_id=8

Boomer

[Peazoup]

Boomer,
Very interesting, but not very optimistic for the near future especially for those of us who bought during the high market three years ago. And for those of us waiting to sell, the outlook is pretty bleak.
Would love to hear from anyone who may have heard some good housing news in all of this.

[tkret]

Boomer and others who are interested in this:

Check out the following link. An article in Business Week published "way" back in the good old day of January of THIS year. It now appears that the author had it right. It is interesting to note on page 3 "Douglas Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Assn., predicts existing home prices will slip less than 2% this year before beginning to rebound in 2009." Unfortunately, Mr. Duncan has been proved quite wrong because the drop in 2008 is very much higher than a measly 2% as he predicted.
Also, on page 4, the article notes a 30-year Fixed Mortgage was 5.5%. Since that time (only 7 months) the average now for the same mortgage is over 6.5% with some charging 6.75%.

It is a long read but explains the situation and problems such as people now being upside-down on their home loans. Sellers will have to accept that their homes are not worth the same as they were a couple of years ago. Those who price their homes to market conditions and expectations are selling and avoiding even lower prices in the near future. Tough read but worth reading.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_06/b4070040767516.htm

[l2ridehd]

All these shows and national media information is more broad stroke for what is going on across the country. Not exactly what is happening in the Villages. That market is actually doing quite well. On new homes they sell about 50 a week and resale about 10 a week. And recently they have been removing incentives that they had in the past several months. So the microcosm in The Villages is somewhat different. That market never declined as much as the rest of the US and probably never will. Just look at foreclosures around the country and in TV. Much lower in TV. So it's good to try to have an understanding of the local market vs the national market. Many people who retire buy for cash or use cash from other sources to support those homes. There income is usually stable, social security, retirement annuities etc. so no lay offs or job losses. The hold up most people have moving there is the home they own it that "other market". But many buy now anyway and own two homes for some period of time.

[tkret]

Very true, l2ridehd, that The Villages is unique but it is not totally immune because many potential homebuyers want to relocate but not until they sell elsewhere in the country. When the housing crisis is over and homes begin selling again, TV will be a MAJOR beneficiary and prices will probably rise at a greater percentage rate than just about anywhere else. But, until that leveling out of home sales across the nation takes place, those in TV who MUST sell, and only those who must, will have to price accordingly. TV may not have had the large price reductions on resales that other parts of the country are experiencing, but the reductions are happening in TV, too. Like the stock market, if you don't have to sell, the lower prices today don't matter because those prices will rebound eventually and in The Villages it will be sooner than later.

[chuckinca]

Read recently that home values in California have dropped by over 1.3 Trillion Dollars since 12/05.

Across the US it must be 15 - 20 Trillion Bucks. Doubt that property taxes have dropped at all!

[ConeyIsBabe]

Peazoup........ we're in the same boat :'( Let's go sailing..........

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v202/rosarobin/RedSails.jpg

I've already taken down my FSBO sign. Maybe next year :dontknow:

[Peazoup]

:dontknow:

[Boomer]

tkret,

Thanks for the link to the Business Week article. For several years, my subscription to Business Week was a part of the self-educating I was doing. I cut my teeth on Money and Kiplinger Personal Finance and later on [i]Smart Money, but Business Week became my favorite.

I like the style of writing in Business Week. For me the articles have enough depth while not going the esoteric route. I do not like reading stuff that makes me feel like my head is being pinched in a vise. You know what, I think I am going to re-up that Business Week subscription. I know I can read stuff online, but I still like an old fashioned magazine with writing style that works for me and with some great cover art from time to time.

Boomer

Addendum: If anybody is reading this, I apologize for having turned the whole :edit: :edit: thing to italics while trying to just fix some :edit: :edit: :edit: comma or something. I do not know why I insist upon trying to edit something after I have sent it. I will never, never learn. Oh well, I just wanted you to know that "Business Week" is good for me. OK. Maybe somebody else will like it, too. And I also want you to know that these :edit: :edit: :edit: italics are straight from Hell.

[ouma1938]

This has been a very interesting thread and even though its depressing me even more than I was before its good to get such a good overview of the state of the market. My for sale sign is still up and I am probably going to leave it up and keeping hoping. I am a real estate agent and listing the house myself so I am able to market it well and also get interesting feedback. We have found here, (Upstate SC) that houses in the $120,000 - $200,00 range are still selling, slowly but steadily, but anything above that has slowed to a crawl. And the higher the price the slower the crawl. I have noticed though that in the past couple of weeks there has been more activity, calls and emails on property in general so maybe by 2009 CIB and I will both be in TV!

[Boomer]

That price range, mentioned here by ouma1938, is interesting. A few days ago I had a conversation with a banker, nothing official. I was just chatting him up. It's what I do sometimes. I chat up bankers when I run into them. I know. It's weird. Anyway, I asked him if he was seeing investor interest in the single family homes market. He told me that there has been a small interest in single family homes that are not in the really high price range but are in decent neighborhoods.

I was asking the question because I cannot help but wonder where people who still have decent jobs but who sadly stepped flat-footed into this mess, for whatever reason, are going to find nice places to rent. And while they are renting, the market will surely start to get better and the investment in the single family rental would increase in value.

I have to stop myself when I start thinking like this. My real estate instinct for some reason has worked OK. But I have never been in it as an investor. Started with the first house long ago for $25,000 and here we are, 7 houses later, in a single-story house perfect for us empty nester boomers.

As soon as that cap gains tax law got oh so friendly, I started thinking about doing the downsize to capture keeping the change. I think about this stuff. Mr. Boomer swears I am thinking about selling whatever house when we are moving into it. He still likes me though.

But now that we are in our little geezer ranch that we really like and plan to keep, I have started thinking about where all those decent :edit: over people are going to rent when they do not have their houses anymore.

And I keep trying to talk myself down from this one. I know it's the thrill of the chase for me. And I do not need to even be thinking this way. But I have never seen such a market as this one. There are some nice homes out there. And there are some nice renters who need them. But I keep asking myself, "What's wrong with this picture?"

I know the standard advice against single-family rentals. And I know about the headaches associated with all rentals. But I keep thinking there is a timing in this. I normally like paper investments, but maybe it's time to get one that I can see and touch.

I can't help but think that this market is changing all the rules. But I also can't help but think that I just need to get over this. It is not the time of my life to start being somebody's landlord. Even if they are really nice renters. With jobs. But I just cannot help but think about it.

And I think I am putting all this stuff out there hoping that somebody in TOTVland will come in here and say that my thinking about the single-family rental market is pure lunacy and then that somebody will explain why and then that somebody will tell this old racehorse to just get herself right back in the barn.

Methinks me thinks too much.

Boomer

[tkret]

OK Boomer, take a gander at this opinion by Barry Ritholtz the CEO and Director for Equity Research for Fusion IQ, an independent research firm.

Slowing Foreclosures?
Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 | 11:30 AM
in Credit | Data Analysis | Legal | Real Estate

Get ready for some more Housing bottom calls!

Thanks to some interesting regulations passed by New York, California, and Massachusetts, additional notice is required before initiating foreclosure procedures.

Hence, the defaults and repossessions procedures we woulod have seen begin in August and September wont show up until October and November.

Here is a an excerpt from the WSJ:

"When the research firm RealtyTrac Inc. releases its latest foreclosure report Thursday, don't be surprised if the number of filings declines again.

Last month, RealtyTrac reported that foreclosure filings totaled 252,363 in June, down 3% from the previous month. Some analysts are expecting the July data to show another decline or very little change.

If that happens, could the improvement be a sign that the foreclosure problem is ebbing? Probably not. The data may reflect several developments aimed at reducing foreclosures, including new state and municipal laws that put a temporary moratorium on foreclosures. Such laws are designed to give homeowners more time to work with their lenders and modify troubled loans. Some cynics say the laws are designed to give the appearance that the housing crisis is easing ahead of the November elections."

What are the new legislative rules for foreclosure notices ?

∙ California requires lenders to wait an additional 30 days after a homeowner misses the first payment before filing a default notice;

∙ Massachusetts now gives homeowners a three-months grace period after they default on their mortgage before the lender can file to foreclose. (The law is credited with an 84% drop in foreclosure petitions);

∙ New York which passed a bill last week that requires lenders to send a preforeclosure notice to certain borrowers at least 90 days before foreclosure proceedings may be initiated;

Of course, these notice requirements only delay the inevitable for the vast majority of foreclosures.

Expect more false bottom calls in the housing market of the next 90 days.

[villages07]

Hey Boomer,

If you're tempted to "invest" in real estate, why not buy a property in TV? You can rent it out for sure for at least 3-4 months a year, and use it yourself for vacations at other times of the year. While not the relative bargain that depressed markets in OH and other areas might be, a good investment nonetheless.

Just a thought.

[tkret]

Boomer,
IMHO Villages07 has an excellent idea here. I know that if I had money to invest in Real Estate I would most certainly consider TV. The rental market is in demand, the clients can be counted upon to be respectful of your property, and the upside potential in the future may be considerable. Great advice Villages07.


Hey Boomer,

If you're tempted to "invest" in real estate, why not buy a property in TV? You can rent it out for sure for at least 3-4 months a year, and use it yourself for vacations at other times of the year. While not the relative bargain that depressed markets in OH and other areas might be, a good investment nonetheless.

Just a thought.

[Boomer]

I know V'07 and I think about that one, too. I just can't get past the hangup that if I have a second home, I don't want to rent it out. I am just weird about that. I want to be able to just show up whenever I feel like it. And besides, renters feel most like renting when owners feel like being there. But I will give it some more thought. I am tied to a project here for right now, too.

Also, the weather here in the Ohio Valley is completely spectacular. But just wait. When winter arrives, with its usual vengeance, I will no doubt wish that I had not been such a grasshopper. I am up here in Ohio, just rolling around in my green, green grass and looking up at my blue, blue sky. Ohhhhhhh, I am going to be so sorry. You will all mock me when you see the Boomermobile cruising through the neighborhoods and you see me get my pale, pale self out and go from door to door, dragging my golf clubs behind me, begging Villagers to take me in. I know. I know. But I just don't want to be a landlord there. I just want to hang out when I want to hang out. I just don't want to own to rent in TV. Boomer is a complicated woman sometimes. Probably Boomer just needs to be the renter there one more time and then figure it all out.

I think the decision to make TV your permanent home is so much easier than making the decision to buy a second home, especially one that you don't want to rent out.

And tkret,

Thanks for the last article, too. This mess is making me sick. Really. It's not good for any of us. It never should have happened. I could see it coming and I am but a bumpkin. Why couldn't our alleged leaders see it? I guess the lobbyists got in their way. I hate seeing so many decent Americans having their lives put on hold because of the unrestrained greed of a relative few.

The kind of property I might want to buy as a rental here in Ohio would not necessarily be a foreclosure but one that is on the market for a different reason. Like maybe somebody who has sense enough to move totally to TV or something. I do not want to be Boomer Trump or anything. I am thinking about just one. And I am not even thinking about a bottom price, but just a nice place at a price that I know is good. I would not make a good speculator. But investing is a little different in my dictionary.

I really need to get over this. Like I said, I cannot stay away from matters of real estate.

Boomer

Hey, I hit send and saw that tkret thinks I should buy rental in TV, too. Wow. This is taking a whole new turn. More to think about it seems. This is a little like what I was working through in that "Quest for the Dress" thing a couple of weeks ago, but this one has a much bigger price tag. And I don't think the answer will come to me as quickly.

But thanks for the insight. It helps.

(I do not know why I just can't be a normal retired person. :dontknow: Of course, why would I start being normal now?)

[villages07]

Hey Boomer,

F16 has a lovely lakefront house in KY (near Cincinnati) for sale...last night on chat he was offering it to MariaB and was ready to throw Sadie Mae into the deal (but, I'm sure he was just kidding).

[samhass]

Boomer, If I don't leave my drawers there, I can rent it out. I am referring of course to any personal effects. We do not rent out our Pa home because we have so much personal "stuff" there. We had emptied the Mallory home and then completely refurnished it. I have nothing personal there so it's ok to rent it out. When the market turns and we can recoup our investment, then we'll sell it. For you as a buyer, now is a great time. I almost said perfect, but who knows?
Stepford awaits you...step into the light!! ;D We love living here.

[nanci2539]

We were extremely fortunate to have sold our home in IL in less than three months. I'm convinced it was the brilliant marketing of our sales rep and how I staged my home.

I have friends who are dying to move here but they have to sell their home first. They need the funds from the sale to buy here. Withdrawing from their investments or 401k involves pentalities plus one couple still has a mortgage on their home so buying a home here and having two motgage payments will hurt them financially.

I think if you have the funds to do both, keep the house up north and buy a home here, that's a great way to go but if you need the funds from your existing home to buy a home in TV; you're pretty much stuck.

[Boomer]

Oh V'07 and Sam, Ladies of Stepford, I know. I know. And Sam, thanks for the tip on keeping track of my drawers.


Hey Boomer,

F16 has a lovely lakefront house in KY (near Cincinnati) for sale...last night on chat he was offering it to MariaB and was ready to throw Sadie Mae into the deal (but, I'm sure he was just kidding).


And tell F16 for me that I know he would never throw in Sadie Mae. It is way too obvious to anybody who has ever seen the pictures on here, that the gorgeous redhead has F16 wrapped right around her paw. He's been had and he knows it.

Oh my, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and now Sadie Mae. All this talk of real estate is making my poor old Boomer head spin. (and I cannot seem to stop)

Peggy Sue Boomer

[Peachie]

Boomer, I think Sam has the type of setup that would make renting your home or villa in The Villages financially feasible. If you are out of state, it becomes more costly.... IMHO. It is not inexpensive, to say the least, owning two homes even if there are no mortgages involved. If you own in The Villages some of the expenses involved are: water, electric, perhaps gas, telephone, cable, taxes, bug control, lawn maintenance, weed pulling in the landscaping and trimming, exterior washing and perhaps painting, amenity fees, bond, (if applicable), maybe a savings acct for reshingling the roof because of shorter lifespan than northern roofs, insurances which would also have to cover renter liabilites and probably an umbrella policy to cover your personal assets and I may be missing other items. If you are out of state, you need to have someone to manage the property plus cleaning/replacement/repair expenses when the renter leaves. Then add the costs of owning your northern home. Mr Peachie and I very carefully weighed costs vs income and felt in the long run renting would help us pay for the cost of owning a second home but we could probably generate more income in investments. (We also don't like sharing our mattress and linens with others and we want to be here in February and March, not in a snowbank in Poedunk.) At this point in our lives, we want a little less responsibility and a little more time for pursuing interests we've never had time for previously. If villa rentals go to $4,000./mo prime season, we will rethink our current position, lol. Just another perspective...

[graciegirl]

tkret,

Thanks for the link to the Business Week article. For several years, my subscription to Business Week was a part of the self-educating I was doing. I cut my teeth on Money and Kiplinger Personal Finance and later on [i]Smart Money, but Business Week became my favorite.

I like the style of writing in Business Week. For me the articles have enough depth while not going the esoteric route. I do not like reading stuff that makes me feel like my head is being pinched in a vise. You know what, I think I am going to re-up that Business Week subscription. I know I can read stuff online, but I still like an old fashioned magazine with writing style that works for me and with some great cover art from time to time.

Boomer

Addendum: If anybody is reading this, I apologize for having turned the whole :edit: :edit: thing to italics while trying to just fix some :edit: :edit: :edit: comma or something. I do not know why I insist upon trying to edit something after I have sent it. I will never, never learn. Oh well, I just wanted you to know that "Business Week" is good for me. OK. Maybe somebody else will like it, too. And I also want you to know that these :edit: :edit: :edit: italics are straight from Hell.




Boomer.

I think that you should change your career of brain surgeon, aeronautical engineer, genetic programmer or whatever the heck your current "project" is and become a houses sales rep down here in TV. You are SO knowledgable on the subject and everyone will love you. Plus we all will be able to see and touch you and know if you are real! Plus you will make so much money you can take us out for dinner at least once a week.

Whatdya think? Huh? Huh?

Kind wishes, GG

[tankdvr1950]

For whats its worth....check out the article in today's WSJ.....if Mr Greenspan is right.....we will not see the bottom until possibly the end of next year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

[Boomer]

For whats its worth....check out the article in today's WSJ.....if Mr Greenspan is right.....we will not see the bottom until possibly the end of next year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news


tankdvr,

I am leaving today to hang out with people I can actually see, but I will check the article. Somewhere in this vast number of posts that I cannot seem to stop writing, I did a little rant on Greenspan.

Hellooooooo Alan, what were ya thinkin'? I know the drill about the fed's fear of inflation. I was around in the Carter years. (A mere child I was, of course. But around just the same.)

When Greenspan kept dropping that rate, every time he would come out and see his shadow, I used to yell at him. I would holler, "Hey, AG, I know you are a bloomin' genius. But you're lookin' a little tunnel visioned to me. I know you used to party with Ayn Rand. Well, maybe you shoulda been partying with Boomer. Because this ain't gonna work."

Greenspan was way too easy. Boomer always knew better than to be easy. But Alan would not listen to me.

I know. I know. Boomer is but a bumpkin. And I know it is/was a much bigger picture than just Greenspan. An economy that had been allowed to become a house of cards. Plastic cards. And I have no idea what happened to usury laws. I remember when I first began to see those payday loan places start showing up in strip malls. I did not get it. How could that be legal?

I was pretty tempted to buy a little banking stock a few years ago. But I could not do it. Something just was not right. I would rather have had Altria. At least tobacco warns about the poison being picked. Much more honest than banking.

I have got to get out of here. I could do two or three more verses. But it's lunch with the girls today. When I try to talk about this stuff with some of my friends, they look at me like I am from Mars. But I really am from Venus.

Boomer

[tkret]

For whats its worth....check out the article in today's WSJ.....if Mr Greenspan is right.....we will not see the bottom until possibly the end of next year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news



An interesting article and even the author, David Wessel, states that Alan's "crystal ball has been cloudy". Mr. Wessel is being kind. This is what AG "predicted" in 2006

"I suspect that we are coming to the end of this downtrend, as applications for new mortgages, the most important series, have flattened out. I don't know, but I think the worst of this may well be over."
-Alan Greenspan, October 6, 2006


Sorry, but those in the trenches, like RealtyTrac, for instance, say 2009 is too soon! Even with all the government attempts to help struggling homeowners, foreclosures continue to rise. This adds to the imbalance between between buyers and sellers. When this happens in any commodity, that effects the price of the item....too much inventory results in lower prices.

[Boomer]

(gottaleavegottastoplookingingottastoptalkingabout thisstuffgottagotalkaboutdifferentstuff.)

tkret,

I was going to read the article later, but I could not resist and read it post morning rant. I tried to tell AG. Really. I did.

Now, I fear that AG may be guilty of irrational exuberance.

Boomer Cassandra

[tankdvr1950]

i guess....after all is said and done...and all the "experts" chime in......no one really has the (correct) answer to the question.

[Peazoup]

I took the plunge. As there are such good buys in TV, I recently bought a home even though my "up north" home hasn't sold yet. I figure I can rent one or the other until the market picks up.
CIB and others waiting - have you considered doing this? 040

[ConeyIsBabe]

Peazoup........ YES..... I am considering buying & renting out a TV home and having it managed by someone; however, I still haven't visited TV yet. Maybe this winter :dontknow:

I've learned from experience to avoid speculation - therefore, I'll probably wait until I sell in Oregon and then rent for a year in TV and then invest in TV. I know, I know that y'all say that TV is all about the lifestyle - and it is - but it's also an investment and I want to get it right inasmuch as I got it WRONG when I bought my Oregon Dream Home at the height of the r/e market ::)

[inda50]

It looks to me like prices are continuing to drop. The middle class is shrinking at an alarming rate.

[ojm]

It would seem that there are some incredible values to be had in real estate right now. And at some point buyers will recognize this. That is the good news. The bad news is that along with tighter loan standards, inflation seems to be returning with a vengeance and mortgage rates could take a sharp upturn shortly. Adding to that, the barrage of bad news had had its effect and a lot of buyers are scared of commiting to a new or larger mortgages. Meaning, I don't have a clue when the real estate market will stabilize and I rather doubt anyone else does either. Tell me what the interest rate of a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be a year from now and I'll offer my 'expert' opinion.

[lag]

I commend your articulate writing skill I loved your quote on unrestraind greed Oh so true !! What a big mess we are in. Can You imagine running for the office of President of the US?
Yes It's not over till the fat lady sings I hope she's tuning up her vocals at least .
Hope this reply is not a mess to view
OK, folks. This is what's up. I did not know I was going to write this. I did not plan to stay so long at the keyboard this morning. I tuned in to this thread. And whoops! I was off and running. (typing) I am not a cutter nor am I a paster. I just tell stories. You do not have to read them. But here goes:

I wish I could find out who said, "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it is bad economics."

I am a fan of business. But lending industry practices that we have witnessed recently do not resemble ethical business in any way, shape, or form. The bloated in DC have been so wined, dined, and propped up by lobbyists that they can no longer recognize ethical business practices, if they ever could.

The CEO of one of the largest lenders was selling his stock through programmed stock sales. Yeah, I know. That's legal. He set it up ahead of time. And he and so many other lenders set up those wide-eyed American Dreamers.

I am weary of hearing, "But the borrowers should have known." Yeah, they should have. But they did not. And their lenders knew they did not. And their Congress knew they did not. There seem to be no laws to protect the American people from the lending industry. Things have happened that should never have happened. And we will all pay.

I don't care about the speculators. I do care about those first home buyers who walked right into it, trusting the guy with the briefcase and the big desk, telling them what they wanted to hear. Vile stuff out there. And we will all pay.

I saw it coming. And I am certainly not a learned economist.

In the fall of 2006, I actually rescued a good friend's daughter from one of these loans. We are talking about a smart young woman with a good job who was walking right straight toward the wall, the cliff, whatever. Her parents could not get her attention. She was hell-bent on doing this "on her own." And thought she understood it. She is in her 20's. And she knows how to do some serious math. Whoda thought?

I asked if she would at least let her dad introduce her to someone at their local, longtime, conservative, bricks and mortar bank to see what that lending department could offer her. It worked out fine. I have no idea why she listened to me. But she did.

There is another circumstance that I have seen up close. A couple in their late 30's who are family friends transferred west. Both have excellent jobs. They bought last fall in a nice neighborhood, getting what they thought was a good deal.

They had to sell their SC house for less, but they felt they were buying for less and the new jobs dictated a move.

This couple knew not to get into the wrong kind of mortgage. And they did not. This young couple did everything they were supposed to do.

And they settled into their new and quite lovely neighborhood.

Now they are watching their neighbors walk away. They are watching their neighborhood turn to rental where possible. They are watching growing grass and general property neglect. They are surrounded by yards that have unmaintained pools. They are even seeing multiple families live in one house. And we are talking about those Ken & Barbie houses. And this young couple did things as they should have been done.

I care about the people in my little stories. I care about those who are like them. Those I do not know. And I care about the fact that we will all pay in one way or another, or in many, many ways. And I care that those who should pay, will not.

So anyway, you did not have to read it. If you are reading this sentence, I guess you did. I did not intend to write it. But I did. So I will hit send. And I will move forward with my life. But I will still care very much. And I still believe that "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it is bad economics." And I still wish I knew who said it. And I wish I had.

I just looked back and saw that I did not give my opinion, directly anyway, on when the overall housing market will bottom. Well, I do so love my sayings. And one of my favorites is "It's not over 'til the fat lady sings." And I'm sad to say that I don't hear her. And I'm really sad to say that I'm not even sure she is approaching the stage. I guess, truth be told, I don't even think I see her limo pulling up to the theater.

Boomer

[tkret]

Are there any financial/economist/predictors out there? What are your opinions on the housing slump that has affected many parts of the country? How long do you think it will last before prices are on the rise again? So many of us are just hanging in waiting for our northern homes to sell so we can finally make it down to TV. Opinions????



http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/aug/15/bz-home-prices-tumble-18-locally/news-money/

[tony]

bump for tkret

[inda50]

I think home prices are starting to stablize

[Keedy]

It was interesting reading through these posts that are a year old. Still, we do not know if prices have bottomed out. I don'y see the bottom yet here in Taxachusetts. Not many houses moving, either.:confused:

[chuckinca]

Here in Norcal we hear that the housing in the San Joaquin Valley that was hit the hardest is starting to see some upward movement with multiple offers. Prices there are down around 50% from the top of the bubble.

On my street in the East Bay, there were two house empty for over a year and both have sold and are occupied. Another newly empty has gone on the market as "bank owned" and seems to be getting a lot of traffic.

Got our fingers crossed that this 2 will pass.

.

[Boomer]

When I saw this thread reappear, I looked back through it. It was weird to see something I had written a year ago on this topic. And the young couple I wrote about who had done everything right with their mortgage and all that. They are still in that Arizona house. But from what they thought was a dream house, they still see empty, neglected houses wherever they look.

This whole thing was vile. Still is. Sure. There were some stupid borrowers. But that is not the reason for the magnitude of this collapse. Unscrupulous lenders. Derivatives. No regulation. The arms and legs are still growing. So many jobs depend upon the housing market.

And then to have the car industry hit at the same time as housing. A hellish scenario.

I have heard that things are picking up a little. Once people begin to feel safer in their jobs, houses will move better. There is a lot of caution out there right now. If the tax credits had been expanded beyond first-time buyers (and I think a 3 years since owning time period) that would have moved some real estate. But nobody ever asks me. Even if I did see it coming. Just like all of you probably did, too. But we sure did not want to be right.

And please pardon another deja vu, but like I kept saying, "Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it's bad economics." But I still, to this day, do not know who said that first. And I still have not had the bumper stickers printed. It would be kind of long for a bumper sticker. But it would probably fit on the back end of my GM car.

Boomer

[TrudyM]

Here in the Puget Sound (Seattle) they didn't go as low as they did in alot of the US as we had less subprime lending. I don't know if it was state statues or what but the real wacked out loans that we were offered (and didn't take) in Atlanta in 2003 where not offered when we came here in 2006.

Here the low end ($400,00) of the market is comeing back and the High end (over a mil) of the market is also. But the sales volume is still low. Whats flat or still down here is the middle. But our housing prices have been 130% of the national average since the early 90's so they where and still are high compared to the average salary of the young working families. and there in lies the problem.

A recent appraisal on our house puts it at 2% above what we bought in 2006 but we have done work and have another 50 thousand of impovements left (that with ou doing the work)

[chuckinca]

Being 2% above a 2006 sale price is amazing!

Houses in the SF East Bay are about 33.3% or more less than the early 2006 prices.


.

[Yoda]

It was interesting reading through these posts that are a year old. Still, we do not know if prices have bottomed out. I don'y see the bottom yet here in Taxachusetts. Not many houses moving, either.:confused:

Our RE attorney says there are a lot of sales. His "business is booming."

Let us pray

Yoda

[TrudyM]

Hold the good thought. When we came back to Seattle in 06 I saw this house come on the market, that had view, was sturdy but needed alot of work. We got carried away with the money to be made and lept in. We (I hope) won't loose money but some of our friends think we are nuts to put more into it, as we could get our money out as a tear down. We just can't give up on the dream so away we go, once more into the breach. This is our 5th remodel and my husband says after this he sells my sawsall. (He has come home from work in the past to find walls torn out. I guess I'm nuts

[GrayGoose]

the whole economy will slow and be sluggish.... I'd say early 2010 at best.........

[TrudyM]

the whole economy will slow and be sluggish.... I'd say early 2010 at best.........
I appreciate your professional realtor's opinion. I have that right don't I, you are a realtor? We are planning to sell summer 2011. If the gas prices going up is a given then I need to buy more TS (tenaris they make pipes for oil drilling) stock maybe as a balance.

[GrayGoose]

I appreciate your professional realtor's opinion. I have that right don't I, you are a Realtor? We are planning to sell summer 2011. If the gas prices going up is a given then I need to buy more TS (tenaris they make pipes for oil drilling) stock maybe as a balance.

Yes, I am a Realtor with REMAX specializing in The Villages :pepper2:...... business is very slow in The Villages both new and Pre-owned.... Prices are still coming down... There has been a bump in pending...but mostly low end bargain hunters... See The Villages Market Analysis

http://www.lylesellsfla.com/frame.shtml?http://root.z57.com/filemanager/uploads/5/4/548b985f-b1ac-8bcb-64d9e991eb2fe491.pdf

[TrudyM]

Yes, I am a Realtor with REMAX specializing in The Villages :pepper2:...... business is very slow in The Villages both new and Pre-owned.... Prices are still coming down... There has been a bump in pending...but mostly low end bargain hunters... See The Villages Market Analysis

http://www.lylesellsfla.com/frame.shtml?http://root.z57.com/filemanager/uploads/5/4/548b985f-b1ac-8bcb-64d9e991eb2fe491.pdf

I thought that might be you. I used all the statistics from your site for my analysis model and I thank you. My realator here says that if we spend the 50 to 60 thou to update this place I can get an additional 200 thou for it (we have the best schools, shortest commute to the city, and near the new light rail to be completed in 2011(We Hope) if he is half right we will be having you find us a place in 2011,:thumbup: hang in there.

[BobKat1]

Yes, I am a Realtor with REMAX specializing in The Villages :pepper2:...... business is very slow in The Villages both new and Pre-owned.... Prices are still coming down... There has been a bump in pending...but mostly low end bargain hunters... See The Villages Market Analysis

http://www.lylesellsfla.com/frame.shtml?http://root.z57.com/filemanager/uploads/5/4/548b985f-b1ac-8bcb-64d9e991eb2fe491.pdf

GG, do you have an estimate of how many pre-owned homes are for sale in The Villages? The last time I looked on TV website there were over 500 thru them. Add in listings thru realtors and FSBO's there must be a lot. Tks.

[chuckinca]

Interesting that the monthly MLS sales over the past three years have stayed in the 15 - 25/mo range while the active listings has increased from around 100 to around 300/mo.

A lot of people in TV want to sell and can't - pretty much like everywhere else.


.

[l2ridehd]

Lets say there are 500 VLS homes for sale. And there must be close to that by realtors. Usually less then VLS, so say 400. And add another 200 FSBO, probably high, but possible. That's 1100 homes for sale. OMG is that a lot? If there are 40,000 homes, that is around 2.5%. My numbers must be way off, lets double it and say 5%. Still one of the lowest resale markets in the country. So stop the doom and gloom and realize that this is still a great market when compared to the rest of the country.

[BobKat1]

I was looking at it not from a gloom and doom perspective, but rather as a good time to buy!

[chuckinca]

Lets say there are 500 VLS homes for sale. And there must be close to that by realtors. Usually less then VLS, so say 400. And add another 200 FSBO, probably high, but possible. That's 1100 homes for sale. OMG is that a lot? If there are 40,000 homes, that is around 2.5%. My numbers must be way off, lets double it and say 5%. Still one of the lowest resale markets in the country. So stop the doom and gloom and realize that this is still a great market when compared to the rest of the country.


According to Lyle Gant's website, MLS had about 275 active properties at the end of April 09 (nearly three times what was active in May 06) and monthly sales of about 25 units.

.

[conn8757]

I don't know - it seemed like a good time to buy for us. We plan on living here at least 10 years - maybe more. We bought what we netted on our old home with a little left over for my husband to get his tricked out golf car. I just retired and was ready to get on with the rest of our lives -I figure as long as it is paid for it doesn't really matter what it cost or is worth if we are living in it. It only matters when you sell. By the time we sell, we will let our kids worry about what it is worth.

[l2ridehd]

I think it's a great time to buy. Never try to time the very bottom or the very top of any market. You will most always miss. However if your willing to hit within 20% of a top or bottom then you will almost always hit your target. The housing market is still moving, but % wise a very small amount. In some markets it has even started to move up. The low end of the market, (first time home buyers), is actually heating up with homes selling at or above asking price. High end market still weak, but stable.

So home prices will probably not move much one way or the other for a while, probably stay flat, but I would suggest that the downside of home prices has ended and the next move of any significance will be up. So if you have waited, planning to, thinking about it, looking with interest, or considering buying you are probably looking at your last low cost opportunity. Continuing to wait will almost certainly cost you more. In price, interest rate, deal structure, but in some way cost you more.

[BobKat1]

Well said. I agree that the best window of opportunity for buying is probably right now.

On the downside for wannabes like us, it's a tough time to sell. Kind of a good news - bad news scenario.

[Boomer]

Once upon a time the decision to buy a retirement home was easier. When the market was hot, or even when the market was just plain normal, a lot of buyers figured that if they bought and then for some reason needed or wanted to sell, it would be relatively easy to turn the property around fairly quickly.

Now Gray Goose says that recent bumps in TV’s pendings have been mostly on the low end. So who are those buyers? Those who want only to be landlords? Or maybe speculators?

Well, for what it’s worth, I think maybe TV is seeing buyers, for now, coming in with far greater caution than in the past. Tiptoeing in, getting the lay of the land, making sure it is what they want. Those types of buyers have always been there, but I bet there are more for now.

You know, many of us are used to our real estate taking really good care of us. Not only have we never lost money in real estate, but we may have become used to expecting some really seriously lovely profits. But now we know that was once upon a time. And the happy ending is not a sure thing.

The psychology of the market may be that retirement home buyers, in particular, are finding themselves in what, to some, may be a period of adjustment, while to others it is reality therapy. No longer throwing caution to the wind.

So who are those buyers of those lower cost TV homes? Landlords? Speculators? Maybe. But I have a feeling that a few could have been renting for awhile, maybe even for years. Some of those renters, who really love it in TV, perhaps have decided, after weighing the cost of years of renting, that it might make sense to just buy in on the lower cost end now. (In fact, I know somebody who did that. So that’s one.)

And there could be a larger number of those lower end buyers who plan to live there year round but are just being a lot more cautious than they might have been before all this economic mess. I know that people change houses in TV all the time, smaller to bigger, bigger to smaller. But I bet a bigger percentage start smaller now with a wait and see attitude. And if they come in with cash, they just might be holding onto a chunk of it by buying smaller than originally planned. Holding some back for stuffing the mattress. Stuffing the mattress with cash can go a long way for that cost of sleep factor. There has to be more mattress stuffing going on with the retirement home market now. And TV provides such a range of choices in houses. And everybody gets access to the same things. And the sunshine is everywhere.

But my little theory should not make anybody sad for the future of selling bigger homes in TV. My theory says that when the dust settles, those buyers coming in smaller will move up to the higher end in a larger percentage than usual.

So that is the trend theory according to Boomer. Please remember that it is totally useless, worthless information coming from me. Heck, I am in Ohio. I am not a real estate agent. Once had a license long ago. But I never really used it. Just wanted to know about real estate.

But I think if I were an agent in TV, I would be saying, “Gimme all those lower end listings I can get." Sure an agent would have to sell more of them to equal the price of one big sale. But if done right, I bet the agent will have a lot of repeat buyers down the road. All agents love those big sales, but getting those sales in today's market is not easy. I guess agents have to sell those smaller sales, in relation to bigger sales, at 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 maybe. So, for now, I guess the attitude has to be "If You're Not With The One You Love, Love The One You're With."

(But I really do not know anything about what's going on with real estate trends in TV. I am just sitting here typing because it started raining on me while I was working outside. So I hurried inside, lest I melt, and the next thing I know, here I am typing a bunch of you know what.)

Boomer, in theory

[chuckinca]

My 59 YO brother and his wife are looking for a manufactured home under $100K to use for 2 to 3 months in the winter. They don't want to sell their home in the Chicago Burbs and not be near their two daughters and four grandkids. I would imagine in about 5 years they would start spending more time in TV and less in Chgo.

Probably very typical.

[Boomer]

My 59 YO brother and his wife are looking for a manufactured home under $100K to use for 2 to 3 months in the winter. They don't want to sell their home in the Chicago Burbs and not be near their two daughters and four grandkids. I would imagine in about 5 years they would start spending more time in TV and less in Chgo.

Probably very typical.

Hey Chuck,

Soooo, it sounds like you could maybe agree somewhat with my theory posted this afternoon in this thread. I think there might be more full-timers of tomorrow than ever coming in through the historic side today.

..........Got the Ohio house where I want it. Need a little sunshine in my life come January. Hmmmmmmmm........

Uh oh, it is after midnight. Uh oh. I have no business typing.

Goodnight.
Boomer

[chuckinca]

Sort of - except that our mother lived in the historic side for nearly 18 years and we have spent many sunny days at the Tiki Bar Pool so it is like home to us.
(our other bro, from KC, has mom's place on Boone Ct)

This year the weather in Calif was nicer than TV so next winter we are coming down in February.

NIGHTY-NITE!

Chuck