View Full Version : Traveling the Villages in 2030
twoplanekid
08-15-2015, 10:15 AM
If the current rate of growth is sustained, the population of The Villages could reach 175,000 or more by the year 2030. How will this many people and the larger area encompassed change how we get around.
Currently, traveling by car at 35 miles per hour from the Brownwood area to Spanish Springs takes a long time. For me, to drive a golf cart at 20 MPH that distance is a once in six month�s adventure. In 15 years, it might take 50 % longer to travel from the expanded Villages North to South without factoring in the increased traffic.
Who is thinking about a mass transit solution or a way to travel at a faster pace these greater distances to make a daily journey like this possible/enjoyable? Is this the responsibility of the Developer, the Counties, the Village government, the State of Florida or who? Where is the preparation in this planned community or where is the outer belt?
RickeyD
08-15-2015, 10:33 AM
If the current rate of growth is sustained, the population of The Villages could reach 175,000 or more by the year 2030. How will this many people and the larger area encompassed change how we get around.
Currently, traveling by car at 35 miles per hour from the Brownwood area to Spanish Springs takes a long time. For me, to drive a golf cart at 20 MPH that distance is a once in six month�s adventure. In 15 years, it might take 50 % longer to travel from the expanded Villages North to South without factoring in the increased traffic.
Who is thinking about a mass transit solution or a way to travel at a faster pace these greater distances to make a daily journey like this possible/enjoyable? Is this the responsibility of the Developer, the Counties, the Village government, the State of Florida or who? Where is the preparation in this planned community or where is the outer belt?
I can see a monorail on both Buena Vista & Morse with stops at all rec centers. A street car trolley can travel all the east/west roads connecting Buena Vista to Morse. As an added service adding a subway circumnavigating Odell Circle would be icing on the cake. Eventually the outer most Villages would simply be bedroom communities and those in the inner Villages can lobby for increased Federal funds to help with the maintenance costs of the new infrastructure.
Bogie Shooter
08-15-2015, 11:40 AM
Some people worry about the darndest things.
villagetinker
08-15-2015, 12:12 PM
Or maybe we will all have flying cars, but how will they implement the roundabouts?
manaboutown
08-15-2015, 12:15 PM
Beam me to Katie Belle's, Scotty!
Chatbrat
08-15-2015, 12:22 PM
In 2030 worry about being on the right side of the grass
NYGUY
08-15-2015, 12:46 PM
In My Humble Opinion, it ain't going to happen, and, as a result, I will concern myself with something important, like....is it 5:00 yet..:beer3:
graciegirl
08-15-2015, 01:10 PM
If the current rate of growth is sustained, the population of The Villages could reach 175,000 or more by the year 2030. How will this many people and the larger area encompassed change how we get around.
Currently, traveling by car at 35 miles per hour from the Brownwood area to Spanish Springs takes a long time. For me, to drive a golf cart at 20 MPH that distance is a once in six month�s adventure. In 15 years, it might take 50 % longer to travel from the expanded Villages North to South without factoring in the increased traffic.
Who is thinking about a mass transit solution or a way to travel at a faster pace these greater distances to make a daily journey like this possible/enjoyable? Is this the responsibility of the Developer, the Counties, the Village government, the State of Florida or who? Where is the preparation in this planned community or where is the outer belt?
I think you should move here full time, because spending so much time off campus is making you overthink things. Or take up golf.
twoplanekid
08-15-2015, 02:20 PM
You can blame these fine ladies who are my advisors. :) I met with them today on Scioto Street in Urbana. One just moved back to Urbana, Ohio from having spent over 30 years in the Villages and will be 100 very soon. Another, also from Urbana has been full time in the Villages for the past 20 years and the newbie to the Villages is my wife.
I know that most could care less about this topic. However, those in power should be thinking about this issue as it will take many, many years to accomplish reducing the gridlock that can occur with continual large population influxes to any one area of the country.
JoMar
08-15-2015, 02:30 PM
If the current rate of growth is sustained, the population of The Villages could reach 175,000 or more by the year 2030. How will this many people and the larger area encompassed change how we get around.
Currently, traveling by car at 35 miles per hour from the Brownwood area to Spanish Springs takes a long time. For me, to drive a golf cart at 20 MPH that distance is a once in six month�s adventure. In 15 years, it might take 50 % longer to travel from the expanded Villages North to South without factoring in the increased traffic.
Who is thinking about a mass transit solution or a way to travel at a faster pace these greater distances to make a daily journey like this possible/enjoyable? Is this the responsibility of the Developer, the Counties, the Village government, the State of Florida or who? Where is the preparation in this planned community or where is the outer belt?
An ultralight and a good sectional....:)
twoplanekid
08-15-2015, 02:46 PM
An ultralight and a good sectional....:)
As I recall, my weight shift Quicksilver top speed was no better than traveling in a car doing 35 MPH. And, most of the time I was flying into a head wind which reduced my ground speed to even less.
Fun, but little help to lessen the time!
billethkid
08-15-2015, 03:52 PM
If we are going to day dream about some third party donating some form of rapid transit for TV I would ask how many communities over 100,000 in the USA has such a system?
The extrapolation assumes the growth at the supposed end of developement will continue at the pace of the past peak period rate.
I will leave this for all the heavy thinkers....I am going out and finish measuring the passing clouds!
twoplanekid
08-15-2015, 04:49 PM
Look at the projected growth for the counties that the Villages reside in.
Population and Demographic Data (http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/)
http://edr.state.fl.us/content/population-demographics/data/methodology_projections.pdf
If true, we are going to see a lot of new faces on the roads in this area in 2030. I only mention public transportation because many in Europe believe that the US is lacking in this regard.
gadaboutgal
08-15-2015, 05:33 PM
[QUOTE=twoplanekid;1100050]If the current rate of growth is sustained, the population of The Villages could reach 175,000 or more by the year 2030. How will this many people and the larger area encompassed change how we get around,,,,QUOTE]
The fallacy in your assumption is that all the population growth in Sumter County will occur in The Villages. That information is not stated in the state's projections. The Villages occupies only one little corner of Sumter (and Lake and Marion, also)-leaving plenty of space for other developers.
MikeV
08-15-2015, 06:48 PM
Don't think I will be here then or if I am I won't know it.
twoplanekid
08-15-2015, 07:01 PM
[QUOTE=twoplanekid;1100050]If the current rate of growth is sustained, the population of The Villages could reach 175,000 or more by the year 2030. How will this many people and the larger area encompassed change how we get around,,,,QUOTE]
The fallacy in your assumption is that all the population growth in Sumter County will occur in The Villages. That information is not stated in the state's projections. The Villages occupies only one little corner of Sumter (and Lake and Marion, also)-leaving plenty of space for other developers.
Please note that I didn't state what percentage of the projected growth would be in the Villages. However, I would expect that a good percentage of that growth would be attributed to the Villages continuing to grow.
Overall, it projects a substantial growth for this area of Florida and one that will impact how we travel in this region in 2030. Again, I assume that the Villages will be a part of this continued growth pattern as our developer does more than most other developers.
Bogie Shooter
08-15-2015, 07:34 PM
On second thought the advice from Gracie should not be heeded!
dbussone
08-15-2015, 08:10 PM
On second thought the advice from Gracie should not be heeded!
Or not!
Loudoll
08-15-2015, 08:20 PM
If we are going to day dream about some third party donating some form of rapid transit for TV I would ask how many communities over 100,000 in the USA has such a system?
The extrapolation assumes the growth at the supposed end of developement will continue at the pace of the past peak period rate.
I will leave this for all the heavy thinkers....I am going out and finish measuring the passing clouds!
You said Third Party !
:jester:
outlaw
08-16-2015, 07:50 AM
Why do you need to have quick access from northern tip to southern tip of TV? I live north of 466 and rarely have any desire to go to Brownwood or other areas in the southern tip of the current TV boundary. I have two town centers and several recreation centers within easy access where I live. Look at Ocala or Leesburg (or virtually any town in the 100K+ population size). Neither has easy and quick access throughout their municipal boundaries. I think the obvious solution is to increase the MMP speed limit....
Taltarzac725
08-16-2015, 08:10 AM
Probably loops what come into play like with other densely populated areas with a way to get around.
I grew up in Reno, Nevada in the 1970s and remember they were starting to add more and more elevated highways and loops as quick ways to get around.
I sure hope that the Villages does not look like Tampa, Jacksonville, Miami, or other large Florida cities with all their business routes and the like.
There are some destinations like the Sharon now that draw people from pretty much any Village.
graciegirl
08-16-2015, 08:27 AM
[QUOTE=gadaboutgal;1100216]
Please note that I didn't state what percentage of the projected growth would be in the Villages. However, I would expect that a good percentage of that growth would be attributed to the Villages continuing to grow.
Overall, it projects a substantial growth for this area of Florida and one that will impact how we travel in this region in 2030. Again, I assume that the Villages will be a part of this continued growth pattern as our developer does more than most other developers.
Howsomeever...it may remain the same or become less populated as Urbana, Ohio has done over time. I am amused that it causes you to think about it. So far, so good. The folks who have been thinking about the growth here so far have done pretty good. PRETTY GOOD. The best prediction of future behavior is past behavior. May the Morses live long and continue to prosper and us with them.
Taltarzac725
08-16-2015, 08:43 AM
[QUOTE=twoplanekid;1100238]
Howsomeever...it may remain the same or become less populated as Urbana, Ohio has done over time. I am amused that it causes you to think about it. So far, so good. The folks who have been thinking about the growth here so far have done pretty good. PRETTY GOOD. The best prediction of future behavior is past behavior. May the Morses live long and continue to prosper and us with them.
If it continues to be modeled on Disneyland and the like, maybe an elevated monorail. The cost of that though would probably be way too high for the Morses to put one in from Brownwood to Spanish Springs Square. And how would they explain this with their humorous histories of various Squares? Walt Disney stayed there in 1890? Time travel?
graciegirl
08-16-2015, 08:59 AM
[QUOTE=graciegirl;1100348]
If it continues to be modeled on Disneyland and the like, maybe an elevated monorail. The cost of that though would probably be way too high for the Morses to put one in from Brownwood to Spanish Springs Square. And how would they explain this with their humorous histories of various Squares? Walt Disney stayed there in 1890? Time travel?
That is why it is better left to them.
Traveling all over this place in the car is not a problem. Many of us are used to traveling all over in their car. I really enjoy the long golf cart rides to executive courses all over this town. It isn't the destination, it is the lovely journey that is enjoyed. BUT...you have to live here awhile to absorb that wisdom.
Taltarzac725
08-16-2015, 09:02 AM
[QUOTE=Taltarzac725;1100358]
That is why it is better left to them.
Traveling all over this place in the car is not a problem. Many of us are used to traveling all over in their car. I really enjoy the long golf cart rides to executive courses all over this town. It isn't the destination, it is the lovely journey that is enjoyed. BUT...you have to live here awhile to absorb that wisdom.
That's true. We have been here since June or July of 2005. There have been many changes since then. It is still fun to tool around in the golf cart. Driving the car though is often a pain in the neck at certain times.
John_W
08-16-2015, 10:28 AM
I grew up in St. Petersburg, Florida. I can easily remember about 1960 when I was about 10 riding in a car on US Hwy 19 headed to Clearwater. We would travel on wide-open spaces like out in the country without seeing a building for miles. Finally after about 20 miles we saw a small highway sign that said, Courtney Campell Causeway Tampa with an arrow pointing to the right and an arrow pointing to the left that said "Clearwater Beach".
Today, this is US 19 & Hwy 60, and Hwy 19 continues like this for 60 miles until you reach Spring Hill and then it finally starts to thin out until you reach Crystal River.
http://x.lnimg.com/photo/poster_768/83b2ccc0f7ff4dea8fc82c540db219fd.jpg
tomwed
08-16-2015, 10:28 AM
I live near Brownwood. I like jumping on 301 and being on the north west end of town fairly quickly. If there was a quick way to drive to the north east end of town that would be great.
I like mass transit. Sometime I take the village bus tour to catch up and I have nothing better to do. It would be great to me to jump on a bus and go to Ocala, Disney or a place I could pick up Amtrak or Greyhound. But it has to be affordable. Right now it cost more to get to Ocala than it does for someone in Ocala to get to Miami. What's up with that?
It's funny. When I was a kid in the Jersey City area looking at older people getting on the bus or subway with me it never occurred to me that could also be enjoying the ride and meeting new people not just trying to get to their destination ASAP like me.
Bogie Shooter
08-16-2015, 12:00 PM
Why is a quick way needed?
twoplanekid
08-16-2015, 12:52 PM
[QUOTE=twoplanekid;1100238]
Howsomeever...it may remain the same or become less populated as Urbana, Ohio has done over time. I am amused that it causes you to think about it. So far, so good. The folks who have been thinking about the growth here so far have done pretty good. PRETTY GOOD. The best prediction of future behavior is past behavior. May the Morses live long and continue to prosper and us with them.
Funny you should bring that up as I just mentioned the Villages at an Urbana City Council meeting two weeks ago. As the Mayor and City council president are both class mates of mine, they tolerate my expressing my feelings about Urbana to others in attendance and on the local TV channel. My suggestions were to encourage everyone to tell others about Urbana in glowing terms and look at things differently or out of the box so to speak.
As most of you do with TV, I encourage people to visit Urbana and have kind thoughts about the community. When at EAA AirVenture in Oshkosh this year, I told people about the museums we have at Grimes Field and please fly in when in the area. I then invited local Urbana citizens to do the same when they travel about the country.
I then showed them my UMX Radian mod to suggest that they look at things differently. Will it fly? I told them that I now look at the phrase �growth can be a necessary evil� differently because of my new relationship with a community called the Villages in Florida. Growth can be exciting, fun, and make things possible that would be very difficult to achieve with a stagnant population. Almost all at the meeting suggested that they dust of the 2007 city growth plans for another look.
I love Urbana and will never lose that feeling I have for it as I/my wife plan our move to TV.
It does fly->
https://youtu.be/VGCbpuGeaUQ
Bavarian
08-16-2015, 01:39 PM
Why do you need to have quick access from northern tip to southern tip of TV? I live north of 466 and rarely have any desire to go to Brownwood or other areas in the southern tip of the current TV boundary. I have two town centers and several recreation centers within easy access where I live. Look at Ocala or Leesburg (or virtually any town in the 100K+ population size). Neither has easy and quick access throughout their municipal boundaries. I think the obvious solution is to increase the MMP speed limit....
The only reason to go to Brownwood's Square is for Cody's at lunchtime for their excellent Philly Cheesesteak. Square 1 burgers is down that way whaic has a large selection of unusual types of meat for their ground patties. Otherwise no need to go there.
Bavarian
08-16-2015, 01:46 PM
Why do you need to have quick access from northern tip to southern tip of TV? I live north of 466 and rarely have any desire to go to Brownwood or other areas in the southern tip of the current TV boundary. I have two town centers and several recreation centers within easy access where I live. Look at Ocala or Leesburg (or virtually any town in the 100K+ population size). Neither has easy and quick access throughout their municipal boundaries. I think the obvious solution is to increase the MMP speed limit....
The only reason to go to Brownwood's Square is for Cody's at lunchtime for their excellent Philly Cheesesteak. Square 1 burgers is down that way whaic has a large selection of unusual types of meat for their ground patties. Otherwise no need to go there.
Packer Fan
08-16-2015, 03:19 PM
Look at the projected growth for the counties that the Villages reside in.
Population and Demographic Data (http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/)
http://edr.state.fl.us/content/population-demographics/data/methodology_projections.pdf
If true, we are going to see a lot of new faces on the roads in this area in 2030. I only mention public transportation because many in Europe believe that the US is lacking in this regard.
Do you really care what Europeans think about it? Not sure we should care what they think, they can't even run their own continent :evil6:
tomwed
08-16-2015, 03:26 PM
I think the obvious solution is to increase the MMP speed limit....
How fast should it be?
I thought they were now considering 15 MPH?
graciegirl
08-16-2015, 03:28 PM
How fast should it be?
I thought they were now considering 15 MPH?
Game, set, match.
perrjojo
08-16-2015, 04:25 PM
The original concept was for The Villages to have a small town feel. That is why we have all of these villages and 3 separate town squares. As long as we continue to have small villages and adequate town squares the concept still works. You really don't HAVE TO GO FROM SPANISH SPRINGS TO BROWNWOOD. All you need will be in each area. Yes, sometimes you will venture out but the same happens in big metro areas and, Yes, you must deal with a little gridlock.
billethkid
08-16-2015, 10:12 PM
Why is a quick way needed?
Bee-eye-en-gee-oh!
What is it now 15 minutes to anywhere from anywhere in TV?
Does anybody really think a retirement community could support a rapid transit system?
Check out the demographics in the areas that have them. Along with core and metropolitan population numbers!
I will wait for the teleportation station.
romanpaula
08-17-2015, 02:49 AM
By 2030 the Villages will no longer be THE retirement community to live, think of all those Sun City places now. Heck, 5 more years at best.
Also some articles say we've already reached 200,000 residents in the snow bird season.
Bay Kid
08-17-2015, 06:33 AM
I will have someone driving me around TV in my old custom golf cart! Everything will still be just as beautiful as ever!!! Isn't life great?
graciegirl
08-17-2015, 06:46 AM
By 2030 the Villages will no longer be THE retirement community to live, think of all those Sun City places now. Heck, 5 more years at best.
Also some articles say we've already reached 200,000 residents in the snow bird season.
Keep romanpaula. I don't agree.
outlaw
08-17-2015, 07:07 AM
How fast should it be?
I thought they were now considering 15 MPH?
I think 35 mph would be reasonable at this time. After all, that's what the speed limit is on BV. Although there are some golf carts that can go 70+ mph.
mbh913
08-17-2015, 07:26 AM
Who or what is "the Village Government?" Maybe we ought to think about getting one somewhere on that 20 year time line.
graciegirl
08-17-2015, 07:36 AM
Who or what is "the Village Government?" Maybe we ought to think about getting one somewhere on that 20 year time line.
Hmmmm.
The Village government at this time is the Morse family south of 466.
And how they run things is the one thing I love more than any thing else about this place. Maybe because they do a great job, do not try to put themselves in the spotlight and have become a huge success without federal help and by doing it the old fashioned way working hard and investing their own money, time and time again.
This has caused them to be very rich. But they weren't very rich twenty years ago. It is the American dream and we are living it too.
Amen. There will be a moment of silence while y'all think about this.
rongeorge
08-17-2015, 07:50 AM
How about a high speed train (100 mph+)?
tntfox
08-17-2015, 08:11 AM
Teleportation, Beam me to Honest Johns. lol
twoplanekid
08-17-2015, 08:14 AM
Who or what is "the Village Government?" Maybe we ought to think about getting one somewhere on that 20 year time line.
The Village government that I am referring to is the CDDs under the collective banner of the Villages. Five residents of each residential CDD are elected by their CDD residents to run operations within the boundaries of that CDD. Three commercial CDDs are still controlled by the developer and CDD 11 which is temporally under the control of the developer as the developer initially installs the five officials to run a residential CDD.
With growth of the Villages, the influence of the developer on day to day operation of the residential CDDs fades. And to some extent, the developer has less control on the operation of the Villages as a whole.
2015+15= 2030 It will be here before we know it!
graciegirl
08-17-2015, 08:27 AM
The Village government that I am referring to is the CDDs under the collective banner of the Villages. Five residents of each residential CDD are elected by their CDD residents to run operations within the boundaries of that CDD. Three commercial CDDs are still controlled by the developer and CDD 11 which is temporally under the control of the developer as the developer initially installs the five officials to run a residential CDD.
With growth of the Villages, the influence of the developer on day to day operation of the residential CDDs fades. And to some extent, the developer has less control on the operation of the Villages as a whole.
2015+15= 2030 It will be here before we know it!
I have to ask. You thinkin' to be mayor? You really need to live here full time first and absorb how nice it is RIGHT NOW.
graciegirl
08-17-2015, 08:37 AM
I think you should move here full time, because spending so much time off campus is making you overthink things. Or take up golf.
This is the advice which shouldn't be heeded, Bogie?
Maybe you are right. You usually are.
dbussone
08-17-2015, 08:42 AM
The Village government that I am referring to is the CDDs under the collective banner of the Villages. Five residents of each residential CDD are elected by their CDD residents to run operations within the boundaries of that CDD. Three commercial CDDs are still controlled by the developer and CDD 11 which is temporally under the control of the developer as the developer initially installs the five officials to run a residential CDD.
With growth of the Villages, the influence of the developer on day to day operation of the residential CDDs fades. And to some extent, the developer has less control on the operation of the Villages as a whole.
2015+15= 2030 It will be here before we know it!
Keep in mind that a traditional governmental arrangement cannot work for The Villages. We exist within 3 municipalities: Lady Lake, Wildwood, and Fruitland Park. And 3 counties: Sumter, Marion, and Lake. If I recall, there are portions of TV that are also in unincorporated territory of Sumter County. A single governmental entity cannot, IMO, exist in this environment. The developer has arranged a masterful scheme to deal with the intricacies here. I, for one, love it....and a benevolent dictatorship.
twoplanekid
08-17-2015, 08:43 AM
Yes, once I meet the residency requirements for office I will be off to the races making changes.:crap2:
Polar Bear
08-17-2015, 08:47 AM
Almost all trips longer than about 15 minutes in TV are what I would call non-essential, elective travel...a restaurant you choose to go to, a special store, entertainment other than what's at the square nearest you, etc.. I don't see that changing no matter how much TV grows.
Mass transit is not required here. Of course that's an opinion from somebody who believes that mass transit is a money-sink in general, costing a fortune, paid for by everybody, used by very few. Very few, very specific types of environments warrant its consideration. TV is not one of them.
dbussone
08-17-2015, 08:52 AM
Almost all trips longer than about 15 minutes in TV are what I would call non-essential, elective travel...a restaurant you choose to go to, a special store, entertainment other than what's at the square nearest you, etc.. I don't see that changing no matter how much TV grows.
Mass transit is not required here. Of course that's an opinion from somebody who believes that mass transit is a money-sink in general, costing a fortune, paid for by everybody, used by very few. Very few, very specific types of environments warrant its consideration. TV is not one of them.
Agree 100%.
twoplanekid
08-17-2015, 09:09 AM
It�s always good to look at things from a different perspective and ask those questions that could result in better ways to go forward. I thank everyone for presenting their views on a subject that in the future will affect us all. Sorry, all of the political talk in the news is getting me fired up and in the mood to change things.:crap2:
don4345
08-17-2015, 09:11 AM
Monorails, Street Cars, are you kiddig me, you don't want to paint a line on the golf paths because it cost to much money. Wake up jump in the pool play some golf enjoy The Village .
dbussone
08-17-2015, 09:12 AM
It�s always good to look at things from a different perspective and ask those questions that could result in better ways to go forward. I thank everyone for presenting their views on a subject that in the future will affect us all. Sorry, all of the political talk in the news is getting me fired up and in the mood to change things.:crap2:
No need to apologize.
tomwed
08-17-2015, 09:13 AM
I think by 2030 we will have self driving carts, self driving cars and bicycles that stop at stop signs..Or even better, a self driving bus that stops at the 3 squares, hospital,fresh market,aldis,the new goodwill and walmart
don4345
08-17-2015, 09:21 AM
A buddy of mine went to one of the town meetings an a guy got up and asked ifnhe is in a golf cart do i have to stop at red lights!!! So stop signs i guess you just blow the off. Realy Sad
tomwed
08-17-2015, 09:44 AM
"The Villages grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014. Its population sat at an estimated 114,350 as of July." http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/26/the-villages-fl-americas-fastest-growing-metro-area.html
If it only maintained that growth, wouldn't the population be [.054 X 114,350] X [2030-2014] + 114,350 = 213,148?
Here comes Costco.
dbussone
08-17-2015, 09:57 AM
"The Villages grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014. Its population sat at an estimated 114,350 as of July." http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/26/the-villages-fl-americas-fastest-growing-metro-area.html
If it only maintained that growth, wouldn't the population be [.054 X 114,350] X [2030-2014] + 114,350 = 213,148?
Here comes Costco.
Nice try Tom. I wish! About Costco, not 213K people.
tomwed
08-17-2015, 10:16 AM
"The Villages grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014. Its population sat at an estimated 114,350 as of July." http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/26/the-villages-fl-americas-fastest-growing-metro-area.html
If it only maintained that growth, wouldn't the population be [.054 X 114,350] X [2030-2014] + 114,350 = 213,148?
Here comes Costco.
my math is wrong----it's a compound equation
year 1 114,350 x 1.054 = 120,524
year 2 120,524 x 1.054 = 127,032
year 16 =265,268
That's enough for a Costco and a Trader Joe's!
graciegirl
08-17-2015, 10:30 AM
Monorails, Street Cars, are you kiddig me, you don't want to paint a line on the golf paths because it cost to much money. Wake up jump in the pool play some golf enjoy The Village .
He isn't HERE. I think that is the problem. He is in Ohio thinking about the lovely new home he has purchased and has only occupied for a few weeks. It is making him overthink things. He is a very nice man, but a bit type A I am guessing. He really needs to take up both pickleball and golf, and join the Democrat club and find a nice church and enjoy a few hundred nights on the squares.
All this talk of changing my beloved Villages is getting ME upset. ;)
dbussone
08-17-2015, 10:31 AM
my math is wrong----it's a compound equation
year 1 114,350 x 1.054 = 120,524
year 2 120,524 x 1.054 = 127,032
year 16 =265,268
That's enough for a Costco and a Trader Joe's!
I'll forgo both to keep the population much lower!
I think we are projected to have a pop'n around 125K at buildout. And we sure won't have much internal growth ... what with the fertility rate here ... so I think 125K is probably pretty realistic. I.e., Unless the developer keeps finding more property around here.
Villager65
08-17-2015, 11:35 AM
Out of curiosity, what are you basing the growth rate on? The Villages approaches its buildout in about 2 years. Not trying to be sarcastic, but how can The Villages approach such a growth by 2030?
Polar Bear
08-17-2015, 11:53 AM
I hate to sound like a broken record, but "buildout" is a moving target, updated as each new phase comes along.
dbussone
08-17-2015, 12:02 PM
I hate to sound like a broken record, but "buildout" is a moving target, updated as each new phase comes along.
Polar - you are too young to be a broken record...how about a loop on a reel to reel recorder? 😃 (Just kidding, you know)
tomwed
08-17-2015, 12:26 PM
Out of curiosity, what are you basing the growth rate on? The Villages approaches its buildout in about 2 years. Not trying to be sarcastic, but how can The Villages approach such a growth by 2030?
I base the 5.4% growth rate from the following piece. The buildout changes everything.
The Villages, FL—America's fastest-growing metro area
Jacob Pramuk | @jacobpramuk
Thursday, 26 Mar 2015 | 11:55 AM ET
The U.S. migration to sunshine continues.
The Villages—a Florida area based around its namesake retirement community—was the fastest-growing U.S. metropolitan area for the second year in a row, the U.S. Census Bureau said on Thursday. Six Florida metropolitan areas ranked among the 20 fastest-growing in the country.
Growth in those metropolitan areas helped Florida become the nation's third most populous state.
The Villages grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014. Its population sat at an estimated 114,350 as of July.
Polar Bear
08-17-2015, 12:33 PM
Polar - you are too young to be a broken record...how about a loop on a reel to reel recorder? 😃 (Just kidding, you know)
Heheh. You ARE kidding! I'm old enough to be an accidental scratch on a hieroglyphic!! :a20:
dbussone
08-17-2015, 12:41 PM
Heheh. You ARE kidding! I'm old enough to be an accidental scratch on a hieroglyphic!! :a20:
Ok, so a not so dead sea scroll then?
jhdarien
08-17-2015, 12:59 PM
How true
FosterMomma
08-17-2015, 02:04 PM
I'm hoping to be alive then... that might just be good enough!
KEVIN & JOSIE
08-17-2015, 02:48 PM
I think we assume moving forward that the now young future Villagers will have enough retirement income to sustain The Villages lifestyle. With more elimination of defined pensions, difficulty saving for retirement, and employment with lower salaries, The Villages could actually decrease in population size by 2030. Young people today are experiencing difficulty trying to build their net worth. Not saying this is going to happen, just throwing out another scenario.
Bogie Shooter
08-17-2015, 03:03 PM
I think we assume moving forward that the now young future Villagers will have enough retirement income to sustain The Villages lifestyle. With more elimination of defined pensions, difficulty saving for retirement, and employment with lower salaries, The Villages could actually decrease in population size by 2030. Young people today are experiencing difficulty trying to build their net worth. Not saying this is going to happen, just throwing out another scenario.
Not all of them are having a problem.
KEVIN & JOSIE
08-17-2015, 03:09 PM
Not a blanket statement that ALL are experiencing trouble. Just saying that there may be enough to impact the future. Again, nobody has a crystal ball.
tomwed
08-17-2015, 03:25 PM
Village Van 160 for 2 people plus tip
Orlando to NYC 400 for 2 people round trip
In 2030 I want an airport nearby flying north everyday. With 40% of the villagers coming from the northeast I think this would be a real game changer. You could visit the grand kids more often if you didn't have to deal with the Orlando airport.
pauld315
08-17-2015, 08:07 PM
I thought The Villages was out of land to build on with about 55000 homes (approx 110000 residents) or has that changed ?
Polar Bear
08-17-2015, 09:03 PM
I thought The Villages was out of land to build on...or has that changed ?
It hasn't changed...it was simply never true. :)
tomwed
08-17-2015, 09:12 PM
I thought The Villages was out of land to build on with about 55000 homes (approx 110000 residents) or has that changed ?
I thought so too but I don't remember the source of that information. I think my realtor told me. That's why it seemed important to buy before everything was gone and got very expensive. No regrets.
NavyVet
08-17-2015, 10:38 PM
It takes me 25 minutes (by automobile) to get to the VA Clinic and I'm not even south of 466A. Try telling all the Veterans here, as well as many seniors who have lots of medical appointments and such, that anything over 15 minutes drive is non-essential, elective travel. It's not about being convenient to your favorite restaurant/golf course/bar; it's that TV is so large and spread out that a number of villages are quite a distance from anything IMPORTANT. Just saying.
outlaw
08-18-2015, 07:30 AM
I thought The Villages was out of land to build on with about 55000 homes (approx 110000 residents) or has that changed ?
According to the developer's sales people, you better hurry and buy your house in TV before the build out is completed any day, and prices for resales go through the roof.
outlaw
08-18-2015, 07:38 AM
Before I bought in TV, I talked to a man who had moved 5 times within TV in about 6 or 10 years (don't remember exactly the number of years). Anyway, he advised me that the most important thing is to decide WHERE to live in TV because it is so big, you could spend a lot of time going and coming to your places of interest and activities if you choose the wrong area. I think it's like any medium size municipality. You tend to narrow your "acceptable" locations to areas that provide the most overall conveniences for your particular interests.
funnygirl
08-18-2015, 10:32 AM
Are you sure the developer is going to keep on buying land and building?
Fred R
08-18-2015, 07:36 PM
In 2030 worry about being on the right side of the grass
The best response I've seen yet. Three cheers.
Justus
08-19-2015, 01:53 PM
Do you really care what Europeans think about it? Not sure we should care what they think, they can't even run their own continent :evil6:
:bigbow: Thank you!
tomwed
08-23-2015, 11:45 AM
In 2030 we will not have much of an electric bill if we install solar panels.
Sunroof is a Google project. https://www.google.com/get/sunroof/about/
Google takes on all sorts of problems and tries to solve them.
Using the data they gather from Google Earth Google can predict what your payback period will be if you install solar panels for electricity. Right now the software only works in Boston and the San Fran area but some people's payback period is 8 years according to a podcast I heard from TWIT [this week in technology] https://twit.tv/.
They say by next year the software will be available for the entire country.
Wouldn't this be a great area for solar power? What would the resale value of your home be if you didn't have an electric bill? Could the villages also be there own cable and internet provider? We are in a unique community where most people own their own homes and we do not support a school system. How to we leverage that power like the Morse's did for our mutual benifit?
2BNTV
08-24-2015, 07:10 AM
I realize this thread was started as a bit of whimsy but..................
I don't see the developer having that mush land nor would they destroy the beauty of TV, with a mass transit system. IMHO
I am more concerned about being alive in 2030!!!
Dr Winston O Boogie jr
08-24-2015, 07:32 AM
You can blame these fine ladies who are my advisors. :) I met with them today on Scioto Street in Urbana. One just moved back to Urbana, Ohio from having spent over 30 years in the Villages and will be 100 very soon. Another, also from Urbana has been full time in the Villages for the past 20 years and the newbie to the Villages is my wife.
I know that most could care less about this topic. However, those in power should be thinking about this issue as it will take many, many years to accomplish reducing the gridlock that can occur with continual large population influxes to any one area of the country.
Do you have information to the effect that those in power are not thinking about this issue?
It seems to me that with few exceptions, the powers that be have done a great job in planning this place. There's nothing to make me believe that they won't continue to do so in the future.
twoplanekid
08-24-2015, 08:19 AM
I believe that the developer group is as focused on an outerbelt as they are on having an airport in the Villages. My point is that it takes one a lot of time to travel from one end to the other in the Villages as is. If we would see an increase in the size of the Villages by 50% in 15 years, this drive would become even more painful. The developer probably does not have any better crystal ball to see into the future than we do.
It would be nice to make Micro Racetrack to Rolling Acers a partial outerbelt to travel at higher speeds and without roundabouts. I use it now as is but may not as many people in the new build area will discover this short cut.
graciegirl
08-24-2015, 08:52 AM
I believe that the developer group is as focused on an outerbelt as they are on having an airport in the Villages. My point is that it takes one a lot of time to travel from one end to the other in the Villages as is. If we would see an increase in the size of the Villages by 50% in 15 years, this drive would become even more painful. The developer probably does not have any better crystal ball to see into the future than we do.
It would be nice to make Micro Racetrack to Rolling Acers a partial outerbelt to travel at higher speeds and without roundabouts. I use it now as is but may not as many people in the new build area will discover this short cut.
The Morses are quietly behind the scenes, thinking and planning. I believe that they have thought of almost every possibility and have in their employ or at their fingertips, people whose exclusive job it is to be a Civic Planner. This place did NOT get to be this level of perfection without much planning and hiring the right people to do the job and earmarking the funds to do it out of their OWN pockets..
I don't see any of us needing to help the Morses think about the future of this wonderful monument to their lives work.
I get the sense that you think it would be better if we all could vote on decisions...and I do not agree with you.
TheVillageChicken
08-24-2015, 09:25 AM
If I am doing any travelling in 2030, it will just be my ashes in the wind.
twoplanekid
08-24-2015, 09:45 AM
I get the sense that you think it would be better if we all could vote on decisions...and I do not agree with you.
As this great nation of ours is a republic, I would tend to agree with your assessment of my beliefs. However, this should not and does not take away anything of how the Villages have been developed.
It�s a great place and many only need a few tweaks in the future to be made even better.
Bogie Shooter
08-24-2015, 11:16 AM
I believe that the developer group is as focused on an outerbelt as they are on having an airport in the Villages. My point is that it takes one a lot of time to travel from one end to the other in the Villages as is. If we would see an increase in the size of the Villages by 50% in 15 years, this drive would become even more painful. The developer probably does not have any better crystal ball to see into the future than we do.
It would be nice to make Micro Racetrack to Rolling Acers a partial outerbelt to travel at higher speeds and without roundabouts. I use it now as is but may not as many people in the new build area will discover this short cut.
What's the hurry?
Polar Bear
08-24-2015, 11:24 AM
...it takes one a lot of time to travel from one end to the other in the Villages as is. If we would see an increase in the size of the Villages by 50% in 15 years, this drive would become even more painful...
Just my opinion, but I'm not sure that many Villagers would agree with your dire description of the situation. I've never considered that drive to be anywhere near what I would call "painful".
I've experienced what were to me painful drives many times. The Villages has none.
Barefoot
08-24-2015, 12:01 PM
The original concept was for The Villages to have a small town feel. That is why we have all of these villages and 3 separate town squares. As long as we continue to have small villages and adequate town squares the concept still works. You really don't HAVE TO GO FROM SPANISH SPRINGS TO BROWNWOOD. All you need will be in each area. Yes, sometimes you will venture out but the same happens in big metro areas and, Yes, you must deal with a little gridlock. :agree:
You really need to live here full time first and absorb how nice it is RIGHT NOW.After you spend a few years in The Villages, perhaps you will absorb the ethos and be less concerned with getting around quickly!
tomwed
08-24-2015, 12:19 PM
From my house in Collier to Lopez is 14 miles. That's about an hour in a cart or bike. To me, anything longer than a half hour in a cart, once the novelty wears off, is not fun. It's discouraging.
Thanks to 301 I can be there in 22 minutes by car. I think if this is a thread about brainstorming than the possibility of a wider, faster route on the east side is worth examining.
They are widening 466A. I wonder if the long range plan is to widen it all the way to 441? A lot can happen in 15 years. If there is not a build out and TV continues to grow at the current pace it will have a population of 260,000.
tomwed
08-24-2015, 12:44 PM
:agree:
After you spend a few years in The Villages, perhaps you will absorb the ethos and be less concerned with getting around quickly!
I think you can have both. I walk the courses and do not own a cart. I have an e-bike and enjoy the ethos.
But in my little smart car I drive from my house in Collier to Lopez in 22 minutes and Fresh Market in 16 minutes. I like driving in the comfort of AC in the summer and heat in the winter listening to NPR.
I want to get to anyplace in the villages in 22 minutes. And this thread is about brainstorming and what will be 2030, isn't it?
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