The Villages at buildout

[Plexer2]

I recently had a discussion with a friend about house values in The Villages at build out. He thinks all our property values will skyrocket because there are no more new homes to be built. I do not agree! I think there are just too many homes available and being a retirement community, people do pass on. I think at any one time there will always be a ton of houses available on the resale market. And so many of the houses are identical models. Price might be a determining factor in whether your house moves or not. Am I nuts, what do you think?

[cleanwater]

Depends on supply and demand. The Villages needs to offer better value than alternative housing options.

I see the following four issues as fundamental to maintaining housing value.

1. Can we make the transition to a new form of effective government once the developer is not in total control? We'll need excellent government that can keep facilities and services in good order for reasonable cost. Owners need to start taking getting invovled in government and that is something new. Can we make the transition without major problems?

2. Can we evolve our facilities as people's likes and dislikes change? This requires making decisions to modify facilities and develop new means to pay for them.

3. Will the golf course owner(s) see it in their interest to keep all the courses in good shape and with reasonable pricing? The future owner may not be the current owner and certainly won't be concerned about home sales.

4. Will the commercial interests continue to sponsor free nightly entertainment in the Village Squares?

What do others see as issues to maintain house value?

[784caroline]

If you plan to retire here in TV I dont think you think of property values the same way as you did up north when you were planning for retirement. Now that you are retired of course you dont want to lose money. but i along with most other people are not planning to move anytime soom either...if at all, so how the markets react in the short term does not really matter. If they go up too fast we all pay more taxes. IN TV there are alot of the same model house, but what distinguishes them from each other is location and if you talk to people at the pools or wherever, they all live in a good location for them. Some like a golf course view, others want to be within a mile of the square or close to a rec center, others by the Learning Center etc etc etc. All the houes of similar models pretty much cost the same to build. Of course house options will differ and add to the price but the real factor is again the lot location. AS we are seeing with this recent Real Estate shake up, Golf view lots with a $150,000 premium, are no longer going for that price.

Price will always be a determining factor if your house moves or not but Bottom line is what happens 5,10, 15 years down the road as it pertains to TV Real Estate, is not as important as getting to TV in the first place.

[Peachie]

I really like that answer, Caroline. If one is ever going to live in the moment, retirement is the time!

[Bryant]

Plexer2 mentions "people do pass on". I also assumed when you pass, your kids will sell the house, take the money and run. In a discussion with 1 (31 yrs. old) of my 2 children, I said "you and your sister can sell the house when we pass away and split the money". Her reply was, "heck no, I'm buying her out, I want to live in the Villages". Can you beat that. Out of the mouths of babes!!

[JohnN]

I think property prices will increase (don't know about "skyrocket") due to supply and demand. Right now the builder tosses out a lot of new construction and supply is good. When that stops, demand may well be higher than supply and prices will increase.

That said, as a retiree, I'm not really concerned about property prices.
My kids/estate can worry about that one.

[MMC24]

I think TV will be like any other retirement community that has reached their build out stage. The demand will dictate the price for pre-owned homes that become available. I do not think prices will skyrocket but TV properties will command a certain premium because IF our amenities remain the same in the future as they are today, future retiree's will want to gain ownership and will pay a premium to buy-in to our lifestyle. Today, other surrounding communities offer more "house-for-the-money but they do not have the TV amenities, hence, our prices are higher. I believe this will be the same in the future.

[rshoffer]

I recently had a discussion with a friend about house values in The Villages at build out. He thinks all our property values will skyrocket because there are no more new homes to be built. I do not agree! I think there are just too many homes available and being a retirement community, people do pass on. I think at any one time there will always be a ton of houses available on the resale market. And so many of the houses are identical models. Price might be a determining factor in whether your house moves or not. Am I nuts, what do you think?I think all bets are off until the current economic crisis is addressed. Last nite our President suggested that our 401 K's could be wiped out. I'm sure I'm in the minority but my entire retirement livelihood is a 401-K and annuity. People who are currently in the same boat and about to retire may take a wait and see stance for a while.

[rekop]

I tend to think that at least some other retirement communities will go the route The Villages has, regarding amenities. Let's face it, its worked so well here, someone is bound to copy the idea! If so, then TV will be competing with those communties. If the other communities have larger, nicer lots, etc., we might be at a disadvantage. Also to consider, at buildout our homes will be older than they are now, so we may be competing with homes in other communities that are newer. Also, who knows how the maintenance of the grounds is going to be here in the future. I see even now that there are nowhere near the number of landscape people employed by TV that we used to have 3 or 4 years ago. If you walk along the sidewalk, I see weeds near the road that make it look a little unkempt. I don't mean to sound negative, but these are considerations that buyers will make. I just don't see it as a "given" that our property values will rise or rise substantially.

[Peachie]

rekop, I think most of the people retiring are considering 10-25 years of additional living. For another community to get off the ground and evolve into what has been developed here would take more time than that. The lots in TV are very nice and I, for one, do not want to spend my hard earned money and time mowing grass for the last years of my life so I don't know how important "big lots" are to the majority of retirees. IMHO, TV will still be a beautiful place 30 years from now. Beyond that, our children can worry about it.

[Don H]

Does anyone know the projected date or time frame for buildout?

[Peachie]

Don H: Does anyone know the projected date or time frame for buildout?


I think it was 5-7 years but it's hard to predict in this economy.

[Frangyomory]

rekop, I think most of the people retiring are considering 10-25 years of additional living. For another community to get off the ground and evolve into what has been developed here would take more time than that. The lots in TV are very nice and I, for one, do not want to spend my hard earned money and time mowing grass for the last years of my life so I don't know how important "big lots" are to the majority of retirees. IMHO, TV will still be a beautiful place 30 years from now. Beyond that, our children can worry about it.

We have no children but do have nieces and nephews and they all want to live here. What I see them doing is likely using our place almost like a time share until one of them decides to buy the others out. They all think we have done the best for our retirement and love to visit. Now they are in their late 30s and early 40s and talk about "when" not "if" they move to the Villages...regardless of whether we leave the place to them or if they buy their own place.

We don't ever talk about home value. Since we don't plan to sell, we don't worry about the value of our home. We love it; we bought it; we are frogs and the kids will love it after we are long gone!!!!! That's the value to us.

[faithfulfrank]

I have a friend of mine who lives in another 55+ gated golf community close to TV, who says another factor to consider is the coming huge wave of boomers.......

Even if just a portion of them decide on Florida, the demand will once again be higher then the supply.....something we have not seen in years.

Frank D.

[SNOK]

Even though the economy may slow down the completion of the build out, the retiring boomers (boomers will be retiring for about 15-20 years) should still provide the demand to see it completed, even if it takes a little longer. I have been wondering what will happen to the marketing campaign for TV once the developer completes build out. One of the drivers in attracting prospects to TV the first time is the way in which it is marketed nationally and internationally. If the amenities and beauty are maintained by the districts and owners associations after build out, there will still need to be some national/international marketing program to continue to attact new visitors and keep the demand growing in order for the property values to continue to grow. I wonder where the marketing plan will be vested at that time.

[Peachie]

I think an earlier post gave a good indication... if TV remains a viable, entertaining and beautiful place to live, the children, nieces, nephews and other relatives will lap up a good portion of resales and the need for advertising may be minimal. The State of Florida, sunshine and the location of TV are all permanent and will be always be a big part of the draw. I think this is a bit like worrying what the prom will be like 10 years after one graduates from high school, lol. It won't matter! :wave: We're outta there.

[Bogie Shooter]

Don't you think the economic times will have a dramatic influnce on any build out date that is speculated on today? Three years ago it was projected to be done by 2010. At 200 new builds a month its going to take a lot longer than that.

[Peachie]

If that housing market opens up a little, Bogie, you'll see a big bubble of people wanting to move to TV and move now. There are a lot of people stuck with homes and in a holding pattern to move to "The Lifestyle".

[darylj2000]

We are one of those that are waiting for our house up north IOWA then we are coming to TV

[Just Susan]

If that housing market opens up a little, Bogie, you'll see a big bubble of people wanting to move to TV and move now. There are a lot of people stuck with homes and in a holding pattern to move to "The Lifestyle".

"ain't that the truth!!"

[rekop]

rekop, I think most of the people retiring are considering 10-25 years of additional living. For another community to get off the ground and evolve into what has been developed here would take more time than that. The lots in TV are very nice and I, for one, do not want to spend my hard earned money and time mowing grass for the last years of my life so I don't know how important "big lots" are to the majority of retirees. IMHO, TV will still be a beautiful place 30 years from now. Beyond that, our children can worry about it.


Many people don't seem to care about the size of the lots, but I have heard numerous commments about "why are the houses so close together?", that sort of thing. So some people do consider that. Most people I know have someone come in and do their mowing, so its not a physical issue of mowing, its more a privacy issue.

[gfmucci]

I understand "buildout" is somewhere between 2014 and 2016, depending on the economy and the rate of sales over the next few years. We are at the very beginning of the the "boomer" wave nationwide which will extend at least to 2020.

At that point in time, the "average" house in TV will be about 15 to 20 years old. The average age of the occupants will be rising as well. In the new neighborhoods the average age is proabably around 62, including full and part timers. In the older villages, the average age is well into the seventies. Yes, there is the occasional resale to younger buyers. But I would guess most buyers would rather live in neighborhoods of 60-year-olds than 80-year-olds if they have a choice. The average age of the entire community, not just the older sections, in 2020 is likely to be in the high 70s if not low 80s.

Ya gotta wonder whether retiring yuppies, and gen Xers will want to live among people that old. By then, many of the deed restrictions, including age restrictions may be expiring in the older neighborhoods, allowing younger families to move in. What do you know about the perpetualness of our present age restrictions? That would have a HUGE bearing on the future of TV. Maybe by 2030, that change (elimination of age restrictions) will be needed to maintain a market for resale here.

[JohnN]

Build-out estimate:

70,000 people now, 110,000 planned, 40,000 more people should be about 25,000 more homes. Closing on 300/month = 3,600/year

25,000 / 3,600 would be about 7 years or 2015.

Lots of things could change that, economy, builder buying more land, etc.

But it's an estimate.

[rshoffer]

Does anyone know the projected date or time frame for buildout? This is impossible to guess because the entire game has changed. It's Friday Morning, 645am, Sept 26th... wash Mutual has just failed... CNBC quote... "NO ONE IS LENDING ANYONE MONEY"... since not everyone who moves here pays cash for their home OR if they did, t:mad:hey got the cash from a buyer of their Northern home who LOANED the money to buy it, well..., the entire machine is gonna grind to a halt.:mad:

[Russ_Boston]

IBy then, many of the deed restrictions, including age restrictions may be expiring in the older neighborhoods, allowing younger families to move in.


Is this a fact? Is it written somewhere that the age restrictions ever expire or is this just your opinion as to what WILL happen? I think it is a key point if it is true.

Russ

[NJblue]

This is impossible to guess because the entire game has changed. It's Friday Morning, 645am, Sept 26th... wash Mutual has just failed... CNBC quote... "NO ONE IS LENDING ANYONE MONEY"... since not everyone who moves here pays cash for their home OR if they did, t:mad:hey got the cash from a buyer of their Northern home who LOANED the money to buy it, well..., the entire machine is gonna grind to a halt.:mad:

There seems to be contradictory views on the availability of mortgage money. Here is what is reported at bankrate.com:

Qualified borrowers can find conforming and FHA-insured mortgages easily. Jumbo mortgages are more scarce, but available. Rates went up in the last week, which is another way of saying that credit is tighter. But the mortgage marketplace isn't frozen, at least in part because of federal intervention.

"There's almost no difference in the availability of money compared to a year ago, with the exception of jumbos," says Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant with Palm Beach Financial Network in Stuart, Fla. "The main difference is that you have to provide documentation, such as W-2s, tax returns and bank statements. Welcome to the full-doc world."

I suspect that this view is more accurate than the view that "No one is lending money". Just look at the current mortgage rates - they average less than 6% for a 30 year mortgage. Last July they were in the high 6's. If money was that tight, one would expect the rates to be going very high rather than lower. Also, if some sort of a deal in Congress can be worked out, money should flow even more easily.

[Russ_Boston]

We shouldn't turn this thread into the current crisis thread. But the quote wasn't about the 'little' guy. It was meant that banks aren't lending to banks like they used to. They are all turning to the central bank for lending. You have to be careful when you listen to CNBC because, for the most part, they are talking about MACRO ideas and not the MICRO ideas that filter down to you and I.

[rsetterlund]

I have heard that Florida's zoning laws will change in 2012. The change is not allow cluster zoning, like TV, and require larger lots sizes. I have also heard that the developer will build all the homes they can be for the change, but limit the release of the new homes for sale.

I for one do not want a large lot. Have had these up north and not interested in that any more.

Hopefully price values will not rise rapidly. Just means higher taxes.

[Peachie]

RSetterlund: I have heard that Florida's zoning laws will change in 2012. The change is not allow cluster zoning, like TV, and require larger lots sizes."

I had heard that about the cluster zoning dateline also. And not to get too financial about purchasing a new home in TV, but if you require a mortgage you'd better have a gorgeous FICO or you won't be getting a loan, that's the lending issue.

[Coconuts]

Does the change in zoning laws mean that communities presently zoned for 55+ will then be opened up to anyone? or just that no new communities will be reserved for seniors only?

[784caroline]

If you can come up with 20% down payment and have a decent (not outstanding) FICO, you can get a loan.

Regarding the change in Cluster zoning...all that mean is that the price of housing will go up..along with the Bond fees..but granted you will have more space!

[gfmucci]

I have heard that Florida's zoning laws will change in 2012. The change is not allow cluster zoning, like TV, and require larger lots sizes.

"Zoning" is controlled by local government, either cities or counties, depending where the zoned land is located. All of TV is unincorporated, not in any city, but in one of three counties. The state does not "zone" or dictate zoning.

Age restrictions are allowed by Florida law and are enforced by deed restriction.

Florida Statutes, Title XLIV, CIVIL RIGHTS, Chapter 760, DISCRIMINATION IN THE TREATMENT OF PERSONS; MINORITY REPRESENTATION has an exemption section that allows age discrimination. The specific section that pertains to age 55 and older age restricted communities in Florida is quoted below:

3. Intended and operated for occupancy by persons 55 years of age or older that meets the following requirements:

a. At least 80 percent of the occupied units are occupied by at least one person 55 years of age or older.

b. The housing facility or community publishes and adheres to policies and procedures that demonstrate the intent required under this subparagraph [bold added for emphasis]. If the housing facility or community meets the requirements of sub-subparagraphs a. and c. and the recorded governing documents provide for an adult, senior, or retirement housing facility or community and the governing documents lack an amendatory procedure, prohibit amendments, or restrict amendments until a specified future date, then that housing facility or community shall be deemed housing for older persons intended and operated for occupancy by persons 55 years of age or older. If those documents further provide a prohibition against residents 16 years of age or younger, that provision shall be construed, for purposes of the Fair Housing Act, to only apply to residents 18 years of age or younger, in order to conform with federal law requirements. Governing documents which can be amended at a future date must be amended and properly recorded within 1 year after that date to reflect the requirements for consideration as housing for older persons, if that housing facility or community intends to continue as housing for older persons.

c. The housing facility or community complies with rules made by the Secretary of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development pursuant to 24 C.F.R. part 100 for verification of occupancy, which rules provide for verification by reliable surveys and affidavits and include examples of the types of policies and procedures relevant to a determination of compliance with the requirements of sub-subparagraph b. Such surveys and affidavits are admissible in administrative and judicial proceedings for the purposes of such verification.

One must look further for the document specified in bold face type in the statute which states: [the] "community publishes and adheres to policies and procedures that demonstrate the intent required under this subparagraph." It is up to the community how long the age restrictions may be in force. The sales documents for homes in each village should contain a copy of these required "policies and procedures". Like virtually all deed restrictions or "restrictive covenants" I've seen, they have an expiration date.

From The Villages Community Development District website...

"Since The Villages has been in the process of development over the last 40 years, the restrictions for various communities within The Villages have evolved over time. The following is a summary of many items covered in the Declaration of Restrictions. Please refer to the Declaration of Restrictions for you individual neighborhood for more detailed information.

1. Age Restrictions: The Villages is an adult community designed to provide housing for persons 55 years of age or older. All homes must be occupied by at least one person who is fifty-five years of age. Persons under the age of 19 years may visit for a maximum of 30 days per year but may not reside permanently in a any dwelling."

I would gather from this that age restrictions are via deed restriction and not through zoning.

[gfmucci]

Here is an abstract of a study about a community in Arizona that lost it's age-restricted status. The home price premium the residents enjoyed because of the age-restricted status deflated within 12 to 18 months. Note that Youngtown's age restrictions were enacted through local zoning while The Villages age restriction is based on deed restrictions.


Loss of Age-Restricted Status and Property Values: Youngtown Arizona

Karl L. Guntermann
Arizona State University - Supply Chain Management

Gareth Thomas
Arizona State University

Journal of Real Estate Research Vol. 26, No. 3, 2004

Abstract:
This study finds evidence of a large premium in Youngtown Arizona house prices that persisted over time and could be attributed to the town's age-restricted status. Age restrictions may act as a signal that the community provides facilities and services that meet the needs of the senior population and the assurance that those facilities and services will be available in the future. This assurance reduces uncertainty for future owners and it is the reduced uncertainty that is capitalized into house prices. The loss of the age restriction resulted in the elimination of the premium over approximately twelve to eighteen months.

The complete study can be viewed here: http://www.allbusiness.com/accounting-reporting/record-keeping/1014230-1.html

[Russ_Boston]

Good research but read the whole article.

Florida is NOT going to endanger its economy at any point in the future by disallowing age-restricted developments. TV is not a whole city despite its size. It is a single, albeit large, real estate deeded development that is age-restricted to 80/20 over 55. TV has no reason to ask for these restrictions to be removed. To my knowledge it is no where near the 20% under 55 anyway. I think you are off base if you feel that TV would be kids town in the future. There must be HUNDREDS of 55+ communities in FLA and thousands more across the country. They are not gimmicks.

Just my opinion.

[gfmucci]

Good research but read the whole article. Thanks. And I did.

I think you are off base if you feel that TV would be kids town in the future. There must be HUNDREDS of 55+ communities in FLA and thousands more across the country.
Just my opinion.

And without calling you "off base"*, my opinion is that in 20 years, after the baby-boomer demographic bubble has evaporated, and there is substantially less demand for "age-restricted retirement communities" we, or those who come after us, may find there is a much smaller market for the sale of TV homes - especially 30 to 40 year old homes. And the fact that there are "HUNDREDS of 55+ communities in FLA and thousands more across the country" makes the demographic shift even MORE significant. If this is true, than there there will be a much greater supply of age-restricted housing than demand and prices will fall relative to other housing options. If that happens, the owners of homes in TV (sans developer intervention or interest) may try to expand the potential buyer market (and prop up prices) by finding a way to eliminate the age restriction, which I believe is technically possible. And I didn't say "Florida" would do this. The homeowners, collectively, would attempt it.

I realize there are several "ifs" involved in this scenario. But they are all within the realm of possibility if not probability.

*An alternative manner of disagreeing besides telling someone is he is "off base" is to say "I disagree because..." or "I have a different view."

This whole topic is highly speculative. There is no correct answer today. That's just my opinion. I might be wrong.

[Russ_Boston]

Some good points to think about.

I do feel that FLA has been and always will be about retirement folk as its bread and butter. This started long before the baby boomer era and it will continue way past our era. Will the values fluctuate in TV as it ages? Sure but due more in part to ITS age not the age of the residents. In 20-30 it will require revitalization. You should start to see this in the oldest sections within a few years as the supply of new homes dwindle down to a trickle. TV will still be desirable based on its lifestyle so the older homes will be remolded one by one. Lesser communities that do not offer what TV does will suffer first.

That, of course, is just my prognostication.

[gfmucci]

:agree:

I should modify my previous speculation by saying "only the most revitalized, successful age-restricted communities will survive in 30 years." The Villages has a great start in being one of those survivors. I expect many of the less successful ones will look for ways to eliminate their age restriction.

But then, I could be wrong.:duck:

[JohnN]

I can't figure out what's going to happen in the November election, how our economy might/might now recover, nor how world events will change in the next year.

I sure can't see 30 years down the road and wonder/worry if TV will have different restrictrions. And likely I won't care because likely I won't be here.
I'll just take my chances with TV as is. It's heads and tails better than most, and in the here and now, that's my priority.

[gfmucci]

One year from now is easy to see...

No matter who is elected: Continued overspending by congress, deferring payments on stuff we can't afford until another bubble bursts.

The mega-trends define the future. Identify the magatrends and you pretty much have it.

I'm going to start a thread inviting people to describe the situation and characteristics of the retiree of 2030.

Look for it on the Non-Villages discussion forum.

[TomW]

As a prospective villager, the "entry price" is the key thing. No one can time the market to hit the exact bottom but would prefer to buy lower. After that, it doesn't matter unless you are selling for some reason. I think many of us have to be careful not to purchase too much house in retirement and become "house poor." And like many others, a good chunk of our retirement funds are invested in the stock market. Some days its a Lantana, some days a single-wide. Today, it would be a pup tent and hoping next year is better.

[gfmucci]

And like many others, a good chunk of our retirement funds are invested in the stock market. Some days its a Lantana, some days a single-wide. Today, it would be a pup tent and hoping next year is better.

Great line. I have the same thoughts.

[Russ_Boston]

I've got the tent and a blow up mattress. Now all i need is some flint to make fire. After yesterday's melt down I think it is "Operation villages 2012 instead of 2010!"