Real Estate market turning?

[l2ridehd]

Here is an interesting arlticle on Florida real estate. Seems maybe a sign that this market may be at the bottom. My tracking shows prices have stablized except for the occasional great buy. But step through the Villages pre-owned and look at the number of pending. Highest % I have seen in a long time. If your waiting on the sidelines, might be the time to make a move.

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-021209.cfm

[katezbox]

My husband and I just bought a new home in Bonita; we close mid-April. We planned to buy a re-sale but found that for the model we wanted, there were better values in the new homes. Whether you take advantage of a neighborhood closeout or buy in a new neighborhood where you can somewhat customize and still save 5%, it seemed like a better deal. It could be that our home is a newer model and the owners that are now selling them bought at the peak of the market. But for whatever reason, their prices seemed high - even factoring in that some has prepaid their bonds.

One thing about TV is the age 55 restriction takes away the huge value swings being seen in other parts of the state and country. By limiting who can buy (i.e. speculators looking the "flip"), there is a more equitable match of supply and demand.

I do think that now the time IS right to buy in TV. Interest rates are low and some of the neighborhood closeouts are terrific values.

Kate

[Dirigo]

[QUOTE=l2ridehd;188525]My tracking shows prices have stablized except for the occasional great buy. QUOTE]


Where are you getting your sales information?

[l2ridehd]

For 3.5 years I have been tracking listed price vs selling price. I get the listing price from 3 sources. The Villages VLS listings, MLS using Realtor.com and Lylesellsfla.com and FSBO. Probably not 100%, but at least 90% plus of the available market. Then I use the county web sites to get the actual selling price. Marion and Sumter were easy, Lake a little more challenge, but also less Villages homes sold there. I had to get on a couple Realtors e-mail lists in order to get home addresses, but that was easy to do as well.

I threw out the top and bottom 5% variance. The reason for that is you will see a home on the market for 280K that sold for 335K and another 280K that sold for 190K. I was able to track down a couple of these strange sales and found that one home sold with a new golf cart, a car, and furnished and another time one was bought by a child of the owner. It helps get a truer picture of the actual market and what you as a buyer or seller could expect. I have about 3 years of this data. For the past 6 months I have only tracked Sumter county as that was where I was most interested. However the county does not seem to matter very much, Marion, Lake or Sumter.

What the data shows on average is for VLS, selling price runs 95% - 96% of asking price and for MLS its 94% - 95% and FSBO runs 89% - 91 % of asking price. Again this is an average and even by removing the top and bottom 5% there are still a few that fall out of this range on both sides.

For a while I tried to track the new home sales, but found that very difficult as most sold for just a little over asking price. I assume that is because people add some extra item. But is was still close to 100% almost every time so not worth tracking.

[rshoffer]

For those interested in what's happening south of 466a I suggest you put your US Keds on and stroll down Buena Vista from 466a all the way down to rt 44. It is completely paved, street lights up, some cart tunnels in place and, most importantly, I recently observed some surveying activity. Who knows, this might mean things are about to start moving down there?

[Dirigo]

For 3.5 years I have been tracking listed price vs selling price. I get the listing price from 3 sources. The Villages VLS listings, MLS using Realtor.com and Lylesellsfla.com and FSBO. Probably not 100%, but at least 90% plus of the available market. Then I use the county web sites to get the actual selling price. Marion and Sumter were easy, Lake a little more challenge, but also less Villages homes sold there. I had to get on a couple Realtors e-mail lists in order to get home addresses, but that was easy to do as well.

I threw out the top and bottom 5% variance. The reason for that is you will see a home on the market for 280K that sold for 335K and another 280K that sold for 190K. I was able to track down a couple of these strange sales and found that one home sold with a new golf cart, a car, and furnished and another time one was bought by a child of the owner. It helps get a truer picture of the actual market and what you as a buyer or seller could expect. I have about 3 years of this data. For the past 6 months I have only tracked Sumter county as that was where I was most interested. However the county does not seem to matter very much, Marion, Lake or Sumter.

What the data shows on average is for VLS, selling price runs 95% - 96% of asking price and for MLS its 94% - 95% and FSBO runs 89% - 91 % of asking price. Again this is an average and even by removing the top and bottom 5% there are still a few that fall out of this range on both sides.

For a while I tried to track the new home sales, but found that very difficult as most sold for just a little over asking price. I assume that is because people add some extra item. But is was still close to 100% almost every time so not worth tracking.


You are my kind of guy!

As someone who has spent the last 17 years in the property valuation business I must say I am impressed with your research. I have started doing the very same thing from the same data sources and have begun to draw the same conclusion. Once in a while you see an outlier, a clinker, and you know there were other circumstances involved with the sale. I did see a villa that sold for $95K but it must have been a family sale or a serious fixer upper.

After you understand the system it must be fairly routine to keep your data up to date, but you must have been quite a while setting it up and learning the lingo for Map Lot Block Unit etc.

Do you have this data in a spreadsheet? If so, if I send you a PM would you be willing to share it with me? I would love to see it!

Dirigo

[l2ridehd]

I have several spread sheets because I was also trying to determine if certain neighborhoods had different valuations. I also did some work on equalization of square footage. Trying to take every home, add its pluses and minuses, take a fixed % for the lot square footage, same for the house and came up with a $$ per square foot for lot and house and then theoretically be able to compare any home with any other and see which is the best value. Problem is they became a little complex, so unless someone could sit down and explain it, I doubt it would be much value.

[rwcw]

I've been surprised at how well the prices are holding in The Villages. According to Realtytrac.com, there are 673 foreclosures in Lake county, 569 in Marion county and 55 in Sumter County. With this many foreclosures (1,297) "in the neighborhood" it's a little surprising to me that the Villages prices haven't fallen more than they have. Yes, yes, the Villages is a "special" place, but it may not be long before the people from up north discover that they can buy double the house for half the price nearby and I suspect that this will cause even more of a decrease in the selling prices here in the Villages, at least in the near future.

Don't get mad at me. It's just an opinion.

[Dirigo]

I've been surprised at how well the prices are holding in The Villages. According to Realtytrac.com, there are 673 foreclosures in Lake county, 569 in Marion county and 55 in Sumter County. With this many foreclosures (1,297) "in the neighborhood" it's a little surprising to me that the Villages prices haven't fallen more than they have. Yes, yes, the Villages is a "special" place, but it may not be long before the people from up north discover that they can buy double the house for half the price nearby and I suspect that this will cause even more of a decrease in the selling prices here in the Villages, at least in the near future.

Don't get mad at me. It's just an opinion.

I think we have a way to go until we hit bottom as well, Villages or not.

That said, I think TV prices will continue to be higher for the same size home because the homogeneous neighborhoods and strictly enforced deed restrictions which maintain the value of the homes. People want to buy where they can expect their investement will be protected.

[Dirigo]

I have several spread sheets because I was also trying to determine if certain neighborhoods had different valuations. I also did some work on equalization of square footage. Trying to take every home, add its pluses and minuses, take a fixed % for the lot square footage, same for the house and came up with a $$ per square foot for lot and house and then theoretically be able to compare any home with any other and see which is the best value. Problem is they became a little complex, so unless someone could sit down and explain it, I doubt it would be much value.

Yours is a very analytical approach to homebuying as opposed to the impulse buying mentioned in so many posts on TOTV.

I also wondered about price differences between neighborhoods. I am waiting until after our Lifestyle Preview to do any further research. Want to be sure we want to move to TV before I do all that work. Did you note any differences between neighborhoods?

[Cassie325]

Well....I have friends looking for a 3 bedroom CYV....stucco.....preferably with a bird cage off the lanai....18-20 inch tile floors throughout the living area...nice carpet in bedrooms....tile in bathrooms....granite counter tops....open floor plan...a pool or hot tub would be a plus. No grass...just rock and landscaping. Low or no bond. Believe it or not they prefer the Northern side of 466. Does not have to be furnished...or have a golf cart but the laundry must be inside.:faint:


Sounds a little picky I know:ohdear:....but how much would that go for now and does it exist and does anyone know of one available? They are willing to pay cash ASAP!!:a040:

[Dirigo]

Well....I have friends looking for a 3 bedroom CYV....stucco.....preferably with a bird cage off the lanai....18-20 inch tile floors throughout the living area...nice carpet in bedrooms....tile in bathrooms....granite counter tops....open floor plan...a pool or hot tub would be a plus. No grass...just rock and landscaping. Low or no bond. Believe it or not they prefer the Northern side of 466. Does not have to be furnished...or have a golf cart but the laundry must be inside.:faint:


Sounds a little picky I know:ohdear:....but how much would that go for now and does it exist and does anyone know of one available? They are willing to pay cash ASAP!!:a040:

Lyle Grant has an excellent website where he sorts listing by different criteria:

http://www.lylesellsfla.com/The_Villages_FL_listings/open_houses.shtml

[graciegirl]

There are a limited number of models here to choose from and in the price level of designer, those models are available in block/stucco and frame. The lot size and the view are pretty much in a set price structure. Inside lots make a house lower in price than those that have their backside on a street, wall, pond or golf course. When you sort through all of that, if you are in a market for a designer, than it is pretty easy. There are some variables, some have walk in showers and larger lanais and some Lantanas have stretched elevations. The appliance packages vary and so does floor covering.Some come with blinds and some do not. Now these are the ones already built. It is fairly easy to see how much difference a block/ stucco is compared to the same model in frame. So the assessment process is not QUITE as tricky as you may think. You can then compare new with resale and come up with what you think is desirable and a decent price.

Just don't expect to change anything on a new home already built. ANYTHING!

[rshoffer]

Well....I have friends looking for a 3 bedroom CYV....stucco.....preferably with a bird cage off the lanai....18-20 inch tile floors throughout the living area...nice carpet in bedrooms....tile in bathrooms....granite counter tops....open floor plan...a pool or hot tub would be a plus. No grass...just rock and landscaping. Low or no bond. Believe it or not they prefer the Northern side of 466. Does not have to be furnished...or have a golf cart but the laundry must be inside.:faint:


Sounds a little picky I know:ohdear:....but how much would that go for now and does it exist and does anyone know of one available? They are willing to pay cash ASAP!!:a040:If one of these turns up we'll trade our Camillia in Duval.... that's nEXACTLY what we're searching for.