Guest
02-21-2009, 10:19 PM
Israel has a new government, lead by the hawkish Benjamin Netenyahu, with an ultra-conservative and hawkish block (the Likud Party) controlling their Knesset. The Likud block is sufficiently strong that they can overturn any government, calling for a new election, should the Prime Minister and the administration not perform to their liking. The controlling Likud supports and encourages the furtherance of new Jewish settlements on the West Bank. Their platform also rejects outright the concept of the formation of a Palestinian state and government. The U.S. disagrees strongly with both those positions.
It has been reported that Iran is somewhere between months and up to five years from the successful development of a nuclear weapon. Iran does have rockets with sufficient range to deliver nuclear a warhead on Israel and has tested them frequently. Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has said he intends to remove Israel from the face of the earth. We should be aware that Iran is actually a constitutional theocracy and the ultimate political power in Iran legally lies with Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Supreme Leader of Iran. While the Ayatollah is ultra-conservative and a fundamentalist Shiite Muslim, his intentions relative to Israel are less well-known. But their religious precepts reject the Israelis as being among the most hated infidels.
New Prime Minister Netanyahu has said he would attack Iran to destroy their nuclear development activities. In fact, Israel requested "bunker-busting" bombs from the U.S. in 2008 (the Iranian facilities are located in deep bunkers or in mountains), but the U.S. denied the Israeli request.
There are now reports that Netanyahu has requested that the U.S. pre-emtively attack the Iran nuclear facilities with air strikes to protect against what he believes to be an imminent attack by Iran on Israel. Other reports suggest that Saudi Arabia has also suggested that the U.S. consider an attack on Iran to protect the Saudi oil industry from possible attacks from Iran or effects of an Iranian attack on Israel. It should be noted that Iraq and Iran are the only Shiite Muslim countries in the Middle East, all the other countries in the region are dominated by Sunni Muslims. The Sunnis and the Shiites are bitter enemies. Much if the violence in Iraq are sectarian attacks of one group against the other.
Our government has consistently said that Israel is our most important ally in the region and we have made clear statements that we would take any action, including military, to defend Israeli interests. Our relationship with Saudi Arabia is more difficult to measure. Oil is fundamental to our relationship and the Saudis have been quite successful over the years in using oil to influence the U.S. to perform as they wish. They treat us as an ally, but only at a distance. After permitting us to establish military bases in the kingdom when they were threatened by Saddam Hussein, they demanded that our bases be closed immediately after the conclusion of the first gulf war. We are not even permitted overflight rights over the kingdom. Saudi Arabia is the home to the most madrassas, which train young radical Muslim fundamentalists. They sponsor and fund hundreds of other madrassas in other countries. Most of the terrorists who flew the 9/11 planes as well as Osama bin Laden are Saudis.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia, who we call our strongest allies in the Middle East, have apparently asked that we use our military power to neutralize the aggressive and militaristic Iran. Such an attack would clearly result in a rapid escalation in military conflict in the region and possibly terrorism there and elsewhere in the world. Iran has a well-trained standing army and air force of over 1 million soldiers plus about 500,000 trained reserves, all well-equipped with the latest weaponry provided to them by Russia. An attack against Iran would certainly result in their military response against Israel. Israel has an exceedingly well-equipped and trained army and claims it can defend itself. But we should be aware that the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated the strength of the Israeli ground forces at 125,000 troops, including 40,000 career soldiers and 85,000 conscripts, with an additional 600,000 men and women in the reserves. A pre-emptive attack against Iran would also result in a likely escalation of terrorism in Iraq where the Shiites outnumber Iraqi Sunnis by a large plurality. How the other Sunni countries in the region might react is difficult to predict, but no other Middle Eastern Arab country has military capability anywhere close to that of Israel and Iran. An expansion of Iran-fueled terrorism in the Middle East and possibly in the rest of the world is also a possibility.
Our most important allies in the Middle East have apparently requested that we pre-emtively attack Iran. Israel has a powerful lobby in Washington. Saudi Arabia is a major source of oil for the U.S. We have been concerned about Iran's nuclear development program for years, but have not conducted diplomacy with Iran since the Shah was overthrown in 1979. The Iran President is a loose cannon and their Supreme Leader is an ultra-conservative and has been bitterly critical of Israel, but whether he would order or approve an attack on Israel is uncertain. Whether Iran really would initiate a nuclear attack on Israel is uncertain. But if they did, the damage to Israel would be complete before anyone could react. Saudi Arabia has estimated that normal weather and wind patterns would blow the radioactive materials resulting from a nuclear attack on Israel the few hundred miles from Israel to the primary Saudi oil fields in a matter of hours, with the probable result that they would be shut down for years until the radioactivity was abated.
What should we do?
It has been reported that Iran is somewhere between months and up to five years from the successful development of a nuclear weapon. Iran does have rockets with sufficient range to deliver nuclear a warhead on Israel and has tested them frequently. Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has said he intends to remove Israel from the face of the earth. We should be aware that Iran is actually a constitutional theocracy and the ultimate political power in Iran legally lies with Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Supreme Leader of Iran. While the Ayatollah is ultra-conservative and a fundamentalist Shiite Muslim, his intentions relative to Israel are less well-known. But their religious precepts reject the Israelis as being among the most hated infidels.
New Prime Minister Netanyahu has said he would attack Iran to destroy their nuclear development activities. In fact, Israel requested "bunker-busting" bombs from the U.S. in 2008 (the Iranian facilities are located in deep bunkers or in mountains), but the U.S. denied the Israeli request.
There are now reports that Netanyahu has requested that the U.S. pre-emtively attack the Iran nuclear facilities with air strikes to protect against what he believes to be an imminent attack by Iran on Israel. Other reports suggest that Saudi Arabia has also suggested that the U.S. consider an attack on Iran to protect the Saudi oil industry from possible attacks from Iran or effects of an Iranian attack on Israel. It should be noted that Iraq and Iran are the only Shiite Muslim countries in the Middle East, all the other countries in the region are dominated by Sunni Muslims. The Sunnis and the Shiites are bitter enemies. Much if the violence in Iraq are sectarian attacks of one group against the other.
Our government has consistently said that Israel is our most important ally in the region and we have made clear statements that we would take any action, including military, to defend Israeli interests. Our relationship with Saudi Arabia is more difficult to measure. Oil is fundamental to our relationship and the Saudis have been quite successful over the years in using oil to influence the U.S. to perform as they wish. They treat us as an ally, but only at a distance. After permitting us to establish military bases in the kingdom when they were threatened by Saddam Hussein, they demanded that our bases be closed immediately after the conclusion of the first gulf war. We are not even permitted overflight rights over the kingdom. Saudi Arabia is the home to the most madrassas, which train young radical Muslim fundamentalists. They sponsor and fund hundreds of other madrassas in other countries. Most of the terrorists who flew the 9/11 planes as well as Osama bin Laden are Saudis.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia, who we call our strongest allies in the Middle East, have apparently asked that we use our military power to neutralize the aggressive and militaristic Iran. Such an attack would clearly result in a rapid escalation in military conflict in the region and possibly terrorism there and elsewhere in the world. Iran has a well-trained standing army and air force of over 1 million soldiers plus about 500,000 trained reserves, all well-equipped with the latest weaponry provided to them by Russia. An attack against Iran would certainly result in their military response against Israel. Israel has an exceedingly well-equipped and trained army and claims it can defend itself. But we should be aware that the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated the strength of the Israeli ground forces at 125,000 troops, including 40,000 career soldiers and 85,000 conscripts, with an additional 600,000 men and women in the reserves. A pre-emptive attack against Iran would also result in a likely escalation of terrorism in Iraq where the Shiites outnumber Iraqi Sunnis by a large plurality. How the other Sunni countries in the region might react is difficult to predict, but no other Middle Eastern Arab country has military capability anywhere close to that of Israel and Iran. An expansion of Iran-fueled terrorism in the Middle East and possibly in the rest of the world is also a possibility.
Our most important allies in the Middle East have apparently requested that we pre-emtively attack Iran. Israel has a powerful lobby in Washington. Saudi Arabia is a major source of oil for the U.S. We have been concerned about Iran's nuclear development program for years, but have not conducted diplomacy with Iran since the Shah was overthrown in 1979. The Iran President is a loose cannon and their Supreme Leader is an ultra-conservative and has been bitterly critical of Israel, but whether he would order or approve an attack on Israel is uncertain. Whether Iran really would initiate a nuclear attack on Israel is uncertain. But if they did, the damage to Israel would be complete before anyone could react. Saudi Arabia has estimated that normal weather and wind patterns would blow the radioactive materials resulting from a nuclear attack on Israel the few hundred miles from Israel to the primary Saudi oil fields in a matter of hours, with the probable result that they would be shut down for years until the radioactivity was abated.
What should we do?