How many more Villages?

[Peggy D]

How many more Villages are there going to be? Anybody know?

[rshoffer]

I'd guess that there will be about 15,000 more homes to the infamous "buildout"... not sure how many homes are in a Village but I'm sure someone else knows. There are massive expanses of land south of 466A to be developed. The economy has slowed the pace somewhat... however there continues to be an unbelievable amount of home building going on.

[GrayGoose]

More like 35000 more homes...... Currently 40000 homes and about 60 villages.. You can do the math

[GrayGoose]

SOURCE DAILY SUN RATE PAGE

THE MARKET - WHY
BY THE NUMBERS...
23,000 Total acres of land contained within The Villages

75,000 Current population of The Villages

102,119 Projected population of The Villages by the year 2012

20 Average number of people who move into The Villages every day

50 Percentage of people moving into The Villages who
will pay cash for their home.

62/60 Average homebuyer�s age for men and women,
respectively

44,448 Average household income (in dollars) for the state
of Florida

93,800 Average household income (in dollars) for home
buyers in The Villages

92 Percentage of Villagers who read The Daily Sun
seven days a week

97 Percentage of Villagers who read The Daily Sun at
least two days per week

2 million Rounds of golf played per year by Villagers

198 million Dollars that Villagers will spend annually


:crap2:

[rshoffer]

more like 35000 more homes...... Currently 40000 homes and about 60 villages.. You can do the math35 thousand more homes would be close to 70 thousand more people... Are you sure about that number?

[Russ_Boston]

More like 35000 more homes...... Currently 40000 homes and about 60 villages.. You can do the math

Gray - Using your own numbers that you provided in the preceding notice from the Daily Sun the math is:

Current pop: 75,000 Number of current homes 40,000 = 1.875 people per house.

Buildout pop: 102,119 - current pop 75,000 = 27,119 more to go. Divide by the 1.875 people per house = 14,463 more homes.

So rounding off to 15,000 more homes seems about right. Wouldn't you agree?

15,000 homes divided by 7 closings per day (latest I read) = 5 years and 8 months to buildout.

[Taltarzac]

The number of houses per Village seems to vary a great deal too. That probably depends on the lakes, non-Villages property, and other sections in this area that prevent the Villages from throwing up more homes.

Winifred seems to be one of the Villages with the most houses if I remember correctly?

[chuckinca]

SOURCE DAILY SUN RATE PAGE

THE MARKET - WHY
BY THE NUMBERS...
23,000 Total acres of land contained within The Villages

75,000 Current population of The Villages

102,119 Projected population of The Villages by the year 2012

20 Average number of people who move into The Villages every day

50 Percentage of people moving into The Villages who
will pay cash for their home.

62/60 Average homebuyer’s age for men and women,
respectively

44,448 Average household income (in dollars) for the state
of Florida

93,800 Average household income (in dollars) for home
buyers in The Villages

92 Percentage of Villagers who read The Daily Sun
seven days a week

97 Percentage of Villagers who read The Daily Sun at
least two days per week

2 million Rounds of golf played per year by Villagers

198 million Dollars that Villagers will spend annually


:crap2:


If the 40,000 households spend their $93,800 every year it would be $3.752 Billion Spent.


.

[GrayGoose]

Gray - Using your own numbers that you provided in the preceding notice from the Daily Sun the math is:

Current pop: 75,000 Number of current homes 40,000 = 1.875 people per house.

Buildout pop: 102,119 - current pop 75,000 = 27,119 more to go. Divide by the 1.875 people per house = 14,463 more homes.

So rounding off to 15,000 more homes seems about right. Wouldn't you agree?

15,000 homes divided by 7 closings per day (latest I read) = 5 years and 8 months to buildout.

27 35 still a lot of new homes to go

[Dirigo]

5 years and 8 months to buildout.

Russ,

Great job of predicting buildout! I hadn't really put a date on it, just figured sometime around 2012 based on what I'd heard here.

5-6 years works into my plan very nicely.:) How's it work for yours?

Dirigo

[Russ_Boston]

If it takes me 5 y 8 m I think I'll just shoot myself:laugh:

2011 is the current bet.

[chuckinca]

Gray - Using your own numbers that you provided in the preceding notice from the Daily Sun the math is:

Current pop: 75,000 Number of current homes 40,000 = 1.875 people per house.

Buildout pop: 102,119 - current pop 75,000 = 27,119 more to go. Divide by the 1.875 people per house = 14,463 more homes.

So rounding off to 15,000 more homes seems about right. Wouldn't you agree?

15,000 homes divided by 7 closings per day (latest I read) = 5 years and 8 months to buildout.


And if they only close 5 days a week; 8 years and 3 months


.

[Russ_Boston]

and if they only close 2 per day for 5 day weeks with all the holidays then it's 12 y 6 m

OK that's very fuzzy math.:laugh:

[katezbox]

Russ,

Great job of predicting buildout! I hadn't really put a date on it, just figured sometime around 2012 based on what I'd heard here.

5-6 years works into my plan very nicely.:) How's it work for yours?

Dirigo

R & D -

From the TV website...

"Family owned and operated for over forty years, The Villages is currently home to approximately 75,000 residents with a projected build out of more than 107,000 by 2014. Over 12,000 people work directly for The Villages, or for businesses in the sprawling community, which has its own newspaper, radio station and television station. Residents living in The Villages have an average income that is almost double the U.S. average and are dedicated to supporting business and community growth."

To get to this go to www.thevillages.com - then scroll to the bottom, click contact us in the lower right-hand corner then click the second to last selection on the left "The Villages Commercial Property."

There is a lot of great info on demographics, etc etc.

Kate

[zcaveman]

If the 40,000 households spend their $93,800 every year it would be $3.752 Billion Spent.


.


I seriously doubt if 40,000 households have a 93,800 Average household income (in dollars).

If you figure me in, you only have 39,999 households and I am sure there are many, many more with much less income than that. I believe that in another post that fictitious number includes the income of those who have not yet retired but plan on moving to the Villages. They are using their current income.

[Halle]

:agree::agree:

I seriously doubt if 40,000 households have a 93,800 Average household income (in dollars).

I believe that in another post that fictitious number includes the income of those who have not yet retired but plan on moving to the Villages. They are using their current income.

The income is based on when the home is purchased according to the site it was obtained from.

[RCT]

And if they only close 5 days a week; 8 years and 3 months


. They close any day of the week.

[zummy]

I played golf with a guy at Bogart who claims ,thru conversing with one of the grandchildren's husband ,that the "family" recently purchased another 3400 acres south of the new Brownwood planned square. Looks like the villlages is not "building out" as they claim!

[zummy]

bump

[Army Guy]

If the above is true, would that not extend TV to the opposite side of the FL Turnpike? Gosh, I can see the golf cart tunnel now!

Army Guy

[BobKat1]

A little off topic, but has the development of Brownwood been delayed any with the slowdown in the housing market?

We were in TV earlier this month but didn't get down into that area during our short stay.

[collie1228]

If 50% of home buyers pay cash, I wonder how they "know" that the average household income for home buyers is $93,500, or the average age of homebuyers is 62/60, men/women. Speaking only for myself, when I'm paying cash, they don't get that kind of information from me. Methinks they are guessing.

[Russ_Boston]

You don't need 100% of any sample to extrapolate statistics. Even if they only have the data on 10% of the new homeowners they could (within a very small margin of error) make accurate statements.

This is how any survey is done.

But they should indicate that the numbers are extrapolated and what the sample size is.

[BobKat1]

I suppose the income level of buyers who are buying investment property in TV would be included too, no doubt driving the numbers up.

[billyb]

Don't confuse average with median.
If you have few multi-millionaires, those few will pull the average income way up, while most of the populace is far below.

[collie1228]

I hear what you are saying about statistics, but I took a couple of years of statistics in college myself, and there is only one way to come up with an "average" - and that's to add 'em up and divide by the number of units. You really can't extrapolate an average, as it only takes one outlier to throw the number way off. And the comment about median is absolutely correct - it is a lot more meaningful than average when the subject is income. When I see a list like this from a sales outfit, I don't believe any of it. Unless you fully explain your methodology, your statistics are meaningless.

[BobKat1]

I agree that median is more meaningful than average. You see the median used more often than averages when referring to housing prices, income etc.

[chuckinca]

If they did median instead of average in baseball hitting there would be mostly 500 and 250 hitters!

My mother lived in TV for nearly 20 years (and got 3 hole in ones on the exec courses) on about $15K a year and saved money nearly every year.

.

[JeanneBeannie]

God bless your Mother Chuck...3 holes in one?! :pepper2:. I am glad to hear what you said about what she lived on...I was starting to get worried about the earlier reports of estimated salaries in TV per year :22yikes:

[coach]

I think that the income stats come from numbers that are given on the owners survey. It was just done recently. One of the questions was "what is the range of your income". One person from each household could participate in the survey. I'm sure that many people who answered are still working and gave the income they are currently earning. Not what they will have in retirement. I say that because I still work and that is how I answered.