The Potential of Swine Flu on Mexico & USA

[Guest]

Today, April 28th, the Wall Street Journal noted the following about the Swine Flu.

1. Travel, Tourism is being hit by the impact of Swine Flu – particularly in Mexico where the tourists are nearly gone in such areas as Cancun and Cozumel.
2. Mexico has closed all public schools and universities.
3. The streets of Mexico City are deserted – no one is out shopping.
4. Deaths are up to 141 as of last night.
5. Illegal immigrants are coming across the border in very high numbers, both to escape the dangers in Mexico and access free medical care in the United States.
6. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano went on the record saying, “Passive observation is all that is required at this time.” Ms. Napolitano seems to have trouble with dealing with our borders, both northern and southern.

Predictably, members of Congress proceeded to blame the other party even though President Bush had upgraded CDC capabilities to deal with such an event, stockpiled large quantities drugs and supplies that might be needed and pushed through needed legislation to allow drug companies to product large quantities of vaccines quickly. President Obama, on his part has reacted quickly and calmly - this could be his first big test and so far he is doing well.

It is now clear that Mexico's economy is going to take a big hit from this and has the potential for complete collapse. The last time things got this bad, the big US banks stepped in with large loans that boosted the Peso and brought Mexico back. Those loans are still due and our banks may face another large write-off.

The influx of illegals will compound the problems of providing social services, law enforcement, medical care and education. With most of our states already feeling pinched, the situation will get worse. All we can hope is that this virus burns itself out quickly as did the bird flu virus of a few years ago. A true pandemic could bring this nation to its knees.

[Guest]

My money is on DHS at this time.

At this moment there should be already a DHS crisis action team working 24/7 adjacent to the National Operations Center to coordinate all necessary information from all agencies/departments involved. CBP already has protocols in place, working with the the Public Health Service, to monitor border crossings at Ports of Entry and to take custody of anyone who is believed to be contagious. Coast Guard and CBP Air/Marine will activate existing plans for mass emigration along all waterways. CBP and ICE will patrol the rest of the border where illegal crossings occur to funnel as many as possible to intercept locations. Other support agencies (FEMA, various state/local agencies and other FedOps) will provide coordinated aid/services as necessary and determined by DHS. Throughout all of this effort there will be 4-a-day updates of all efforts/results to government senior leadership, and spot reports/decisions as required/appropriate.

Having just left that environment, I have my faith in the professionals who are on-the-job for just this type of headache. While this period of heightened alert is in effect, the "system" kicks into a higher gear. Overtime and special missions will occur, but the work will be done.

[Guest]

Steve,

You are one of the most perceptive people on this board. And I share your respect for the professional capabilities of our various government agencies - be it DHS, our military including the Coast Guard, FEMA, CIA, etc. This situation, I believe, is different from anything we may have anticipated - a 'black swan' if you will.

The Mexican Government is struggling in its war, and yes it is a war, with the drug cartels. Mexican income from the manufacturing plants along the border with the US is rapidly decreasing as US demand for their products drop. Oil prices are dropping precipitately, meaning that the income from oil is dropping rapidly. Tourism, Mexico's second largest industry, after drugs, is already collapsing. It is not a stretch to see that our neighbor to the south may well drop into a state of anarchy similar to that of Somalia or the area along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border. If that even comes close to happening, the implications for us are potentially disastrous!

Concurrently, we are already seeing the impact in our country. Central Florida, like much of the United States, lives on income from tourism and vacations. This is already drying up as people elect to cocoon rather than vacation. Will we, like Mexico, close the schools, sports events, churches, etc? We may have to. Imagine the NBA playoffs without a single spectator in the stands - this is the way soccer matches are being played today in Mexico. And this is less than two weeks into Swine Flu or as our government wants to call it, "H1N1 flu." Now doesn't that make us all feel better?

As I pointed out earlier in this thread, it disgusts me that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle have tried to use this to partisan advantage. This 'pandemic' may fizzle out, it may be the worst we have seen since the flu epidemics of the early 20th century (I truly have prayed to God that it get not worse than this) or it may wind up somewhere in between. In any case, this is not time for partisanship.

I have never been a one to call, 'wolf', but do believe that we may face a unique challenge here. Aside from the possible deaths, the potential effect of the collapse of the Mexican economy upon the United States is very real. Should Al-Queada use this time to strike on tourism sites or simply our markets, the current recession could turn into something much, much worse.

Just my thoughts,

Wayne

[Guest]

I feel the same about the politicians and a significant number of the appointees. It's all about their personal survival, as Sen. Spector just so aptly demonstrated as he seeks 6 more yreas in the Senate, over and about the 29 (plus one to go) years he's been there so far. When is enough, enough?

Mexico is politically weird to me. The central government controls the military and it seems very little else. The states seem to have more autonomy than any in the USA, and it shows in the level of corruption.

The flu situation is a tough one. We've had good people involved in trying to put a handle on pandemic issues for quite a while - whether they be natural occurrences or terrorist initiated. It's looked at as a "weapon of mass destruction" as far as impact, natural or man-made notwithstanding. The bottom line is, is that there is no perfect solution to the problem.

It would not surprise me to see massive US aid, with support from FEMA, USPHS and DOD be invited into Mexico by its current government, especially going into the border states.