Stock Market Rally or Not?

[handieman]

The stock market has recovered from it's dismal low of the 6000's and is up today well into the 8000's. Would like your opinion on whether this is the beginning of a recovery or will it just wander aimlessly and take most of our remaining lifetime to regain the 13-14,000 figure
Handie

[dfn8tly]

Handie;

I'm afraid to talk about it as I might jinx the market. Certainly I wouldn't dare do any opining. I will say the last few weeks I've slept a little better at night, or could that have been the scotch?

[KayakerNC]

There is always the possibility that we are in a "Bear Rally", and haven't seen the bottom yet.
Still...my 401K (TSP) is at least moving in the right direction.

[Boomer]

I don't know either, but since you asked, I will put forth my worthless opinion.

I think the market might tank again before the end of the year and then regain its legs some, only to remain rather flat for quite a long time.

And another thing, right now we are still under the 15% tax rate for cap gains and dividends. But will Congress in its infinite wisdom punish investors by hiking those rates? If so, it seems to me that could be the kiss of death for sure. But what do I know?

For now, I am looking at dividend payers. Solid companies with reasonable dividends. I can get paid to wait.

Boomer Buynhold

[GMONEY]

This deal is hard to figure out. But it has been slowly creeping up now for a few weeks or more. Loos good to me. I just checked and it was over 8300. Might be a good time to check investments. It has been steady even with the Chrysler deal going on........

[spk7951]

I still do not trust this market. I could be wrong and maybe this is the beginning of a good run-up or maybe just a tease. But either way I do not believe we will see the fast run-ups we saw in the late 90's and back when 14,000 was hit.

[cabo35]

Boomer, we must have gone to different schools together. I categorically agree with your assessment. It is consistent with a market projection I heard that said there would be a late Spring Obama bounce followed by a nasty slide.

I am tempted to time the "bounce",and sell off the rest of our market holdings (we unloaded a lot when it was around 10,000 and going down). Like you we held onto dividend producers. My strategy of trying to time the market is contrary to every principle of investing I have ever read and everyone should take it with a grain of salt.

Without hijacking handieman's interesting thread....where do you put it if you cash in? Dear handie, I am referring to places other than those associated with the anatomy.

The only thing that could change my mind is if Obama commits to keeping the tax rates on dividends and capital gains in place. Wouldn't it be nice if he reduced those rates to encourage investors? .....laughter subsides....daydreams morph back to reality after an excursion into the sublime.

[Yoda]

,I have not seen enough to make me want to put new money in. The market may be forecasting a recovery. I will have to wait and see. I cannot afford to put money in and be wrong.

Yoda :sigh:

[Boomer]

Boomer, we must have gone to different schools together. I categorically agree with your assessment. It is consistent with a market projection I heard that said there would be a late Spring Obama bounce followed by a nasty slide.

I am tempted to time the "bounce",and sell off the rest of our market holdings (we unloaded a lot when it was around 10,000 and going down). Like you we held onto dividend producers. My strategy of trying to time the market is contrary to every principle of investing I have ever read and everyone should take it with a grain of salt.

Without hijacking handieman's interesting thread....where do you put it if you cash in? Dear handie, I am referring to places other than those associated with the anatomy.

The only thing that could change my mind is if Obama commits to keeping the tax rates on dividends and capital gains in place. Wouldn't it be nice if he reduced those rates to encourage investors? .....laughter subsides....daydreams morph back to reality after an excursion into the sublime.

Cabo,

If you find your answer, please let the rest of us know. Just where is the ROI to be found? Especially when not wanting to invite insomnia.

Utilities have been calling to me. I have a little Duke. Might buy some more. The dividend is somewhere between 6 and 7% for Duke lately. I am looking at Dominion. I think I might have missed Sempra. Maybe that kind of return is not a thrill to some, but for financially conservative, no longer a spring chicken me, it works OK.

I do know for sure that I will not start buying any of those "investment products" from those guys who send me letters and call me on the phone, even if they do want to buy me dinner first.

Boomer

[GMONEY]

Ended up another good day today on the DOW. Closed over 8400 today!! if it will only stay that way.. See what happens tommorrow... But for today it looks like: :beer3:

[Boomer]

I am guessing that we will give most or all of yesterday back by the end of the week. I just do not think we are to the point where we can expect too much too soon. I just can't see where there is any truly good news to fuel the market up and keep it there.

Please keep in mind that I have no idea what I am talking about. I apply no science to any of this stuff. I have no credentials for finance. (Heck, around this place I get accused all the time of being an English major.)

This market is a skittish operation under constant assault from the media. I wish sometimes that it was like the old days when my dad would try to catch the news for the close or would squint at the tiny print of the NYSE listings in the newspaper that was delivered to our door each day.

I sometimes think that this market has no hope of ever making any sense. If any of you TOTV guys who market-watch ever had a crazy girlfriend in your younger days, well, if you look back on that and compare, I think you will get the idea of just how predictable I think this market is. About as predictable as that crazy girlfriend of yours. Some days you could do no right. Some days you could do no wrong. Some days she was a lot of memorable fun. Some days she terrified you. And there was no rhyme or reason to any of it. (Hey! Maybe I am an English major. That crazy girlfriend thing was an analogy or a metaphor or a simile or a personification or something like that.)

And no, I was not the crazy girlfriend.

Boomer

[Boomer]

I am guessing that we will give most or all of yesterday back by the end of the week. I just do not think we are to the point where we can expect too much too soon. I just can't see where there is any truly good news to fuel the market up and keep it there. -----------
Boomer


'Tis quite odd to be quoting myself here. But I just wanted to point out that.....wellllll.....I was wrong. OK. WRONG! We did not give it all back this week.

And then in the part of the quote I left out, I went on to talk about how this market is like one of those crazy girlfriends some of you guys had in your younger days. I think I am still right on that one.

I did buy into some utilities to lock in that dividend. Six and a half percent. Thrills and chills huh. Hey! I'm a boomer. Buffer that principal is the name of my game. Thrills and chills. It killed me to buy on the uptick. But so what. It's not like I am selling tomorrow. Utilities. Grandma stock. But wait! I am a grandma.

Recently I have been introduced to Jeremy Grantham. Well, not directly to Jeremy Grantham. But to reading Jeremy Grantham. I thought some of you might be interested, too. I had not heard of this guy. Maybe you had not either.

http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/243376/Ex-Bear-Jeremy-Grantham-Now-a-Snorting-Bull,-Says-Stocks-Going-to-Moon

Grandma Boomer Buynhold (Disclaimer: Do not pay attention to anything I say. I know nothing. No credentials.)

[The Great Fumar]

'Tis quite odd to be quoting myself here. But I just wanted to point out that.....wellllll.....I was wrong. OK. WRONG! We did not give it all back this week.

And then in the part of the quote I left out, I went on to talk about how this market is like one of those crazy girlfriends some of you guys had in your younger days. I think I am still right on that one.

I did buy into some utilities to lock in that dividend. Six and a half percent. Thrills and chills huh. Hey! I'm a boomer. Buffer that principal is the name of my game. Thrills and chills. It killed me to buy on the uptick. But so what. It's not like I am selling tomorrow. Utilities. Grandma stock. But wait! I am a grandma.

Recently I have been introduced to Jeremy Grantham. Well, not directly to Jeremy Grantham. But to reading Jeremy Grantham. I thought some of you might be interested, too. I had not heard of this guy. Maybe you had not either.

http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/243376/Ex-Bear-Jeremy-Grantham-Now-a-Snorting-Bull,-Says-Stocks-Going-to-Moon

Grandma Boomer Buynhold (Disclaimer: Do not pay attention to anything I say. I know nothing. No credentials.)

Thanks Boomer Very interesting ..had never read this guy before,,

fumar

[Campbell soup]

Grasshopper: Why is the sky blue Master?

Master: Because stocks are at the best price that they will be for a decade!
Don't stay a Grasshopper....become a strong Ant and buy now! INVEST
NOW!

;)

[Boomer]

This thread started on May 4. And here we are now, more than a quarter later. So how is the market doing? Are we at the top of a bounce?

I remain conservative. In the market. But in the market conservatively. Not totally.

I know buy and hold is out of fashion with some. But I think it just depends on what you're buying and holding.

And I also keep in mind that nobody is likely to ever give Mr. B and me good jobs anymore. And we don't want jobs anyway. Employers always want you to come on certain days, at certain times, yadda, yadda. Been there. Done that. Thus we remain conservative. I really think that retirees should never take serious risk with investments. But that's just me.

Boomer

[UMRJM]

I think that we are all hesitant to think that the there will not be a pull back from here, but even if there is a minor pull back there is a good possibility that market will hang arround here for a period and then go slowly up. If you pick good stocks there should be a good return over the next 18 months or so.

What are your thoughts now that we are into August all ready.

Boomer I am still looking for a investment club in the Villages have you found one.

[Boomer]

I think that we are all hesitant to think that the there will not be a pull back from here, but even if there is a minor pull back there is a good possibility that market will hang around here for a period and then go slowly up. If you pick good stocks there should be a good return over the next 18 months or so.

What are your thoughts now that we are into August all ready.

Boomer I am still looking for a investment club in the Villages have you found one.

Hi UMRJM,

I am still in Cincinnati. Over the next several months we plan to make a decision about buymg a home in TV that we would use as a second home. So at this point, I don't have any connection to an investment club there. But good luck in your search for one.

Boomer

[Boomer]

I think that we are all hesitant to think that the there will not be a pull back from here, but even if there is a minor pull back there is a good possibility that market will hang around here for a period and then go slowly up. If you pick good stocks there should be a good return over the next 18 months or so.

What are your thoughts now that we are into August all ready.

Boomer I am still looking for a investment club in the Villages have you found one.

In that last post, I meant to answer the other question, too. About thoughts now......

I am starting to be surprised at the market's immunity to what I still believe to be an economy in serious trouble. It is like the market is slowly taking a series of vaccinations or something. By that I mean that the market gets bad news and it's -- Yeah? So? Keep on going. (I find that behavior interesting.)

Something else (I guess it's not a new thing because I have mentioned it here already) is that as the expiration date for the tax cuts for dividends and cap gains grows closer, what will happen to the small investor? What if Congress starts drooling and votes for taking a bigger bite? Congress is known for being shortsighted and I really do wonder about what we are in for with that one. But we still have a while.

Meanwhile, I will just keep doing what I have been doing. Some in. Some out. Buy only what I know. Hold what I still know. And knowing my own risk tolerance or lack thereof.

Boomer