Hurricane Irma Status

[tuccillo]

We are really too far out in time for an accurate projection of where Irma is going but the latest NWS spectral model forecast does shed some light on the issues involved. In many ways this is a similar setup to Hurricane Sandy in that the timing of a short wave from the west is important.

There is a long wave trough in the eastern US at the moment and a short wave coming out of the upper Plains states is simulated to form a cutoff low over the Great Lakes. There is a blocking ridge over the western Atlantic. As this cutoff lifts northward, the steering flow will direct Irma northward with landfall over Delaware/Eastern Shore of Maryland on Sunday September 10. With the path of the hurricane aligned with the north/south coastline, small differences in the path can translate into large differences in where landfall takes place. If the cutoff low lifts out sooner or later (or doesn't form), the path of Irma will be dramatically different. The latest ECMWF model forecast takes a much more southerly route with Irma (with landfall around South Carolina) as it handles the short wave from the west differently (it moves the short wave out much faster). While these global models are run out to 15 days, the real limits on predictability is more like 3-4 days in these situations. The path of Irma is dependent on how well the larger scale flow in the higher latitudes is handled.

[Taltarzac725]

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone)

I have not watched the Weather Channel this much since 2004-2005. I miss the woman who went up with the people who fly into the storms. A good change from Jim Cantore and crew. http://kstp.com/news/nicole-mitchell/4520122/

[TommyT]

:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

[tuccillo]

Yes, this will be a ratings bonanza for the Weather Channel as we will be seeing this thing bearing down on the east coast for the next week. Start paying serious attention around Wednesday and until there is compelling evidence that it will stay out to sea. New solutions from the NWS spectral model are available every 6 hours and new solutions from the ECMWF spectral code are available every 12 hours.


HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone)

I have not watched the Weather Channel this much since 2004-2005. I miss the woman who went up with the people who fly into the storms. A good change from Jim Cantore and crew. http://kstp.com/news/nicole-mitchell/4520122/

[Sandtrap328]

Go to the app store and just pick a hurricane tracker app from the choices (either free or paid) and put it on your device.

Works good. The tracks are all from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center.

[JoMar]

Which ever way it goes the surfers will have a fun time :)

[justjim]

Remember last years hurricane Matthew? They had mandatory evacuation along several Florida eastern coastal counties including Brevard county where Port Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, and Kennedy Space Center are located. There was virtually no damage in Brevard county but the hurricane did a lot of damage further north along the coast of Florida. It is difficult to track a hurricane even up to the last three days before it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Florida. Irma's current location is too far away to know where it "might" make landfall in the United States.

[Bogie Shooter]

buy you water today

[tuccillo]

The latest 00Z runs of the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes are looking closer to each other than previous cycles with the NWS code agreeing with the more southerly track of the ECMWF code. The ensembles from the NWS code look pretty consistent through 144 hours so I would put that at the current limit of believability. Both codes show landfall around the South Carolina/North Carolina border area on Monday morning September 11. The forecast length at landfall is about 200 hours - that is really too far out for much confidence, however.

The ridge over the western Atlantic has stayed strong which is forcing a southerly route. The associated trough in the eastern US starts to lift out on Friday September 8 - the ECMWF code appears to have been more consistent in this regard.

We need to wait a few of more days to have more confidence in the model solutions in the time frame of a possible strike on the east coast. The trend for a more southerly route is troubling but we probably aren't in the picture.

[villages07]

The latest 00Z runs of the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes are looking closer to each other than previous cycles with the NWS code agreeing with the more southerly track of the ECMWF code. The ensembles from the NWS code look pretty consistent through 144 hours so I would put that at the current limit of believability. Both codes show landfall around the South Carolina/North Carolina border area on Monday morning September 11. The forecast length at landfall is about 200 hours - that is really too far out for much confidence, however.



The ridge over the western Atlantic has stayed strong which is forcing a southerly route. The associated trough in the eastern US starts to lift out on Friday September 8 - the ECMWF code appears to have been more consistent in this regard.



We need to wait a few of more days to have more confidence in the model solutions in the time frame of a possible strike on the east coast. The trend for a more southerly route is troubling but we probably aren't in the picture.



Tuccillo....thanks for sharing your expertise, especially potential impacts here in TV. I find your explanations technical but very understandable. Let's all hope it turns out to sea and doesn't affect the east coast.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Schaumburger]

Tuccillo....thanks for sharing your expertise, especially potential impacts here in TV. I find your explanations technical but very understandable. Let's all hope it turns out to sea and doesn't affect the east coast.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I echo villages07 comments...my flight back to Chicago is Saturday night, 9/9 so I am keeping an eye on the situation with Irma. I also hope Irma turns out to sea!

[Abby10]

I echo villages07 comments...my flight back to Chicago is Saturday night, 9/9 so I am keeping an eye on the situation with Irma. I also hope Irma turns out to sea!

I hear ya, Schaumburger. We are looking to fly down on Sept 12 to enjoy 3 weeks with the good folks in TV and will be watching carefully how this all plays out on this end as well.

In the meantime, praying for safe travels for your return home. :wave:

[Sgroemm]

After living through Superstorm Sandy, Irma or any of Sandy's other friends are not welcome here on the Jersey Shore!

[Dan9871]

Ryan Maue's latest simulation of Irma shows it turning back into the Atlantic without making US landfall. Based on latest data from ECWMF (European weather service). Of course this could all change in the next day or two...

Twitter (https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/904420469817913346)

[tuccillo]

The NCEP global spectral model still has landfall on the east coast based on on 12Z cycle. It is still way too early to make any reliable predications.

Ryan Maue's latest simulation of Irma shows it turning back into the Atlantic without making US landfall. Based on latest data from ECWMF (European weather service). Of course this could all change in the next day or two...

Twitter (https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/904420469817913346)

[Taltarzac725]

I am starting to stock up on canned goods just in case. We have a lot of bottled water from the last false scare around September or October of 2016. Ate all the canned goods already I had collected back then. 2016 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season) Not sure which storm in 2016 this even was that caused all the fuss?

Matthew probably? Hurricane Matthew - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Matthew)

[Dan9871]

It is still way too early to make any reliable predications.

Yup, that's why I said it could change in a day or two... but it is a change from the last ECMWF run which had a US land fall...

[tuccillo]

As I said, it is still too early to push the panic button. Missing the US has always been a possibility. Numerical guidance out at 200+ hours is not a certainty. The recent GFS ensembles would suggest some consistency at 144 hours. Reliable guidance, plus the NHC forecast for the time period of interest, will have to wait until Wednesday. Full disclosure: undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a developer of research and operational numerical weather prediction codes for NASA and the National Weather Service. I pretty much know what I am talking about.

Yup, that's why I said it could change in a day or two... but it is a change from the last ECMWF run which had a US land fall...

[Ecuadog]

... I pretty much know what I am talking about.

You guys are few and far between on TOTV.

[graciegirl]

As I said, it is still too early to push the panic button. Missing the US has always been a possibility. Numerical guidance out at 200+ hours is not a certainty. The recent GFS ensembles would suggest some consistency at 144 hours. Reliable guidance, plus the NHC forecast for the time period of interest, will have to wait until Wednesday. Full disclosure: undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a developer of research and operational numerical weather prediction codes for NASA and the National Weather Service. I pretty much know what I am talking about.

I knew you were smart. You are nice too.
:thumbup:

[justjim]

The biggest reason to not panic is to remember where The Villages is located. Those living along coastal areas evacuate to our area. Twice we had friends and relatives over from Brevard County and we had a great "Hurricane party". The last was hurricane Matthew last year in the first week of October. Unfortunately, we will miss the party as we will be in Illinois for wife's high school class reunion. However, our home will still be available if needed.

[tuccillo]

Rumsfeld said it best:

There are things we do not know we don't know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns.



I knew you were smart. You are nice too.
:thumbup:

[Schaumburger]

I hear ya, Schaumburger. We are looking to fly down on Sept 12 to enjoy 3 weeks with the good folks in TV and will be watching carefully how this all plays out on this end as well.

In the meantime, praying for safe travels for your return home. :wave:

Abby10, Hope your travels to TV on Sept. 12 are safe as well. Oh you get to be in TV for 3 weeks, you are so lucky.

[tuccillo]

The 12Z cycle of the NWS and ECMWF spectral transform models continues the "troublesome" trend from the 00Z cycle. Both codes are pretty consistent on how they handle a short wave that will dive into the east and the associated ridge over the western Atlantic. The time to really start paying attention continues to be Wednesday as that will be within the 5-day window of the official track forecast from the NHC. The models track Irma across northern Cuba and then quickly move north and impacts FL on mon/tues. There are still a number of possible scenarios including going up the east coast and also up the middle of FL. Missing FL altogether is still a possibility. With a "miss", the east coast may still see tropical storm force winds. When looking at any storm track forecasts keep in mind that the typical error in the track is about 200 miles at 4-5 days.

[Villageswimmer]

Thanks for the update, Tuccillo.

[Aloha1]

And if you watched the mainstream media tonite
(CBS, NBC) , they all are saying a direct hit on Florida:shrug:

Part of me says, what bull pucky but another part says maybe the chicken little announcers might cause someone to actually pay attention and save their life.

Regardless, Governor Scott issued an emergency preparedness order tonite and good for him. I am with Tuccillo on it being too early to tell but better safe than sorry.

[Ingenuity]

I drove to The Villages from Houston area, and arrived today. I have a final job interview(they were very accommodating by a phone and virtual interview last week). I will also be looking for a rental, and looking at homes to buy. My house sold, but my fiance's has not sold yet so we are late in getting down here.
It took me quite a while to get out of Houston because one must be creative to avoid the flood waters. Now Irma is coming? Wow, I hope Florida catches a break.

[kcrazorbackfan]

A bump to the north with Irma and Florida will look a lot different in about a week. All the containers are full of fuel, water and food is stocked up and the generator gets fired up tomorrow. Even have a 5 gal container full of dried food. Fingers crossed 🤞 that it doesn't turn north.

[patfla06]

After living in Florida 20 years I have never had to evacuate.

What worries me are the models showing it going right up the middle of the state.

Keeping any eye out and saying a prayer.

[tuccillo]

Yes, that is troublesome. I believe/hope the ECMWF code has a better handle on things and it goes up the east coast. Start paying serious attention on Wednesday.

After living in Florida 20 years I have never had to evacuate.

What worries me are the models showing it going right up the middle of the state.

Keeping any eye out and saying a prayer.

[Bjeanj]

Ok, I have a question, as I'm from Indiana and only been here a couple of years. How does a hurricane go up the middle of Florida? I thought when it went inland, it lost all its "fuel" more or less, which makes it die out. Tuccillo seems the expert here ... Can you help me understand?

[Colts Fan]

Anybody able to suggest what we should expect from a hurricane that would travel over land as far as from the tip of FL to TV? Wouldn't it diminish substantially? I know it is still uncertain as to the path, and that landfall could be closer.

[ColdNoMore]

Ok, I have a question, as I'm from Indiana and only been here a couple of years. How does a hurricane go up the middle of Florida? I thought when it went inland, it lost all its "fuel" more or less, which makes it die out. Tuccillo seems the expert here ... Can you help me understand?

Anybody able to suggest what we should expect from a hurricane that would travel over land as far as from the tip of FL to TV? Wouldn't it diminish substantially? I know it is still uncertain as to the path, and that landfall could be closer.

Worst case scenario would be for it to go all the way up the length of Florida slowly...while sucking moisture from both the Gulf AND Atlantic.

Just imagine rain like Houston received...from Miami to Jax. :22yikes:

While us in the middle of the state are not as vulnerable as say a flood prone location like Houston/NOLA/Miami/Etc....it could still be a nightmare. :(

Most people think of the wind damage from a hurricane, but it's the flooding...that causes much more damage and fatalities.

Hurricane Preparedness - Hazards (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/hazards.php#rain)

Heavy Rainfall & Inland Flooding

Tropical cyclones often produce widespread, torrential rains in excess of 6 inches, which may result in deadly and destructive floods. In fact, flooding is the major threat from tropical cyclones for people living inland. Flash flooding, defined as a rapid rise in water levels, can occur quickly due to intense rainfall. Longer term flooding on rivers and streams can persist for several days after the storm. When approaching water on a roadway, always remember Turn Around Don't Drown.

Rainfall amounts are not directly related to the strength of tropical cyclones but rather to the speed and size of the storm, as well as the geography of the area. Slower moving and larger storms produce more rainfall. In addition, mountainous terrain enhances rainfall from a tropical cyclone.

[Carl in Tampa]

The biggest reason to not panic is to remember where The Villages is located. Those living along coastal areas evacuate to our area. Twice we had friends and relatives over from Brevard County and we had a great "Hurricane party". The last was hurricane Matthew last year in the first week of October. Unfortunately, we will miss the party as we will be in Illinois for wife's high school class reunion. However, our home will still be available if needed.

:agree:

Folks, for Florida, the center of the state is the safe place.

Here is how you prepare for a hurricane.

1. Have an adequate supply of drinking water. Depending upon how many people are in your household, go out and buy a few cases of bottled water. Enough for several days. Just in case.

2. Have an adequate supply of canned food for the entire family for several days.

3. Plan on losing household electricity. Have some candles, and perhaps a Coleman camp lantern for illumination. Have a couple of flashlights and fresh batteries.

Have a battery operated radio for the likelihood that you will lose cable or satellite TV due to losing electricity.

You can go for days without electricity. Pretend you are out camping in the woods, except you have a nice house to stay in instead of a tent.

The odds are you will still be able to cook on your gas stoves.

(I have camp stoves and a propane gas grill. Cooking is no problem. Mainly I heat up soups and other canned goods.)

4. Fill up the gas tanks on your car and your golf cart. After a few days you may need to go get water or groceries.

You can handle this.

[patfla06]

Worst case scenario would be for it to go all the way up the length of Florida slowly...while sucking moisture from both the Gulf AND Atlantic.

Just imagine rain like Houston received...from Miami to Jax. :22yikes:

While us in the middle of the state are not as vulnerable as say a flood prone location like Houston/NOLA/Miami/Etc....it could still be a nightmare. :(

Most people think of the wind damage from a hurricane, but it's the flooding...that causes much more damage and fatalities.

Hurricane Preparedness - Hazards (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/hazards.php#rain)

This is exactly the scenario we would worry about.

Being inland you obviously don't get storm surge like the coasts. But if you get rain stalled will be a big problem. Yes going over land helps but Florida is flat and doesn't slow it as much.

Wind over 100 mph is a frightening thought.
All those loose items in your yards should be taken in.
(A reason I don't like all those rocks people put in their
Landscaping).

Praying it does not hit us or anyone else. :pray:

[tuccillo]

Once over land, the increase in boundary layer friction and less evaporation of water from the surface will begin to weaken the circulation. However, there will still be a lot of rainfall and wind. At some point, it will no longer have hurricane force winds.

Ok, I have a question, as I'm from Indiana and only been here a couple of years. How does a hurricane go up the middle of Florida? I thought when it went inland, it lost all its "fuel" more or less, which makes it die out. Tuccillo seems the expert here ... Can you help me understand?

[tuccillo]

Yes, the wind speeds will start dropping once over land. If this does happen, the NHC is pretty good at estimating when the winds will drop below cat 1 hurricane levels.

Anybody able to suggest what we should expect from a hurricane that would travel over land as far as from the tip of FL to TV? Wouldn't it diminish substantially? I know it is still uncertain as to the path, and that landfall could be closer.

[tuccillo]

The 00Z runs of the NWS and ECMWF models have essentially the same solution; Irma coming up the spine of FL, albeit the ECMWF code is about 12 hours faster than the NWS code. The official forecast from the NHC at 126 hours is very close to the NWS model with the position just south of the FL keys (2AM Sunday). One saving grace is the typical track errors at that forecast length are 200 miles. Staying out over water in the Atlantic, however, is appearing to be less likely. The forecasts from Wednesday onward should start to become much more reliable. Essentially, the NHC only puts out a 5 day track forecast (with an envelope) because there is little or no accuracy beyond that point. The global numerical model is run out to 15 days 4 times per day - often there is not a lot of skill beyond about 5 or 6 days, depending on the situation. Ensembles, based on slightly altered initial states, are run to provide some feel for when accuracy starts to diminish.

Here is the latest track, with an envelope, from the NHC.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/090514.shtml?cone#contents)

[tuccillo]

The 06Z NWS Spectral model run takes Irma up the east coast of FL and then makes landfall in SC. Still way too early for any accuracy on the track.

[fl boomer]

I lived on the East Coast of Florida during all the hurricanes in 2004, and I have a few suggestions for a "just in case" scenario. Clean out your freezer and throw away all that frozen food that you'll probably never use this week. Trying to get the smell out of a freezer after no power for several days is very difficult. Clean out your refrigerator too.

MAKE ICE!! You can buy the plastic Blue Ice containers that you freeze & use in your coolers or even put water in metal pans & freeze it. I keep several of the Blue Ice packs on hand, & only put them in the freezer during Hurricane season. You can use these to keep your food frozen longer. I like ice in my drinks, so put ice cubes in freezer bags. They won't last as long if the power goes off, but there's nothing better than an ice cold drink when it's hot & you don't have power.

Cell phones may not work, nor your home phone if it is connected to you internet/tv provider. A land line phone works best so you can connect to friends and relatives to let them know you're OK.

If you have a bath tub, put water in it in case you don't have water available. It can be used for flushing toilets, etc. Of course, most of the homes in TV do not have these.

Ladies, remember, if there is no power, then your hair dryer, flat iron, curling iron, etc. will not work!

Remove any furniture lawn ornaments, etc that you have on your porch, open lanai, etc. & put in your garage or house.

Lower your flag pole or remove your flag....in a strong wind, it will be in tatters.

Check any of the Hurricane Preparedness sites for additional information.

Let's hope we get "lucky"

[Chi33]

I was wondered from those with experience what the chances of flooding is? I feel our windows are strongly rated, but unlike from where I am from, there is no 2nd floor homes.

[jsw14]

I'll be gas'in up my Kipor Digital Generator. Run's for 8 hours on 5 gal's of gas. Plus we have a Freeplay Bay-Gen radio self powered. Just wind it up & it will play for 30 minute's. No battery's needed!!

I'll be fire'in-up the generator today, just too warm it up. Hopefully we won't have to use it....

http://i68.tinypic.com/10h0n85.jpg

[affald]

Fill any empty space in your refrigerator and freezer with ice. Fill plastic containers 3/4 to allow for expansion.

[patfla06]

Irma is now a Category 5. Right now winds of 175 mph.

They still are speculating on the parh.

We all need to watch this storm and have a plan in place.

I have never evacuated in 20 years but I would in a
Category 5!

[Lottoguy]

Just fill up your bath tub if you have to. It's fresh water!

[Villager Joyce]

My Mother, who currently resides in Heaven, just reminded me that if you make the bed and have on clean undies, no harm will come to you. It has worked for 65 years so who am I to argue with logic!?

[Greg Nelson]

Are the Keys being evacuated?

[Chatbrat]

Not yet

[tuccillo]

The 12Z cycle of the NWS Spectral code takes Irma up the east coast of FL with landfall near the GA/SC border. This is consistent with the 06Z cycle. The simulation puts Irma directly east of The Villages (on the east coast) around 5AM Monday Morning. This is still out at 6 days into the future so there can be substantial uncertainties. Everything considered, this would be a good outcome for The Villages (windy with several inches of rain), less so for others. The 5PM Forecast discussion by the NHC should be an interesting read. The ECMWF code runs a bit later than the NWS code.

For those who are wondering what a "model" is, here is brief description. Essentially a "model" is a computer code that solves the 3-dimensional equations for fluid motion that describe the atmosphere. These are basically conservation equations for momentum, pressure, temperature, and several moisture variables. These are time dependent partial differential equations so they can be numerically integrated from an initial state to simulate the future state of momentum, pressure, temperature, and moisture. For the NWS code, the initial state is created every 6 hours using various data sources around the globe. Forecasters will then look at the solutions and create the "worded" forecast that you hear/read on various media sources.

[justjim]

After living in Florida 20 years I have never had to evacuate.

What worries me are the models showing it going right up the middle of the state.

Keeping any eye out and saying a prayer.

Don't panic! If Irma comes up through the center of Florida, it will be much weaker by the time it gets to The Villages. Start planning for a "hurricane party"! My friends just went shopping and no bottled water left. Some people panic yesterday and carried most of it out of the stores. Selfish and greed... No problem---just fill up containers with tap water. Cheaper and better for the environment anyway.

[billethkid]

For those with enclosed lanais with slider/stackable windows, depending on your design, consider leaving them open to avoid pressure build up.

Ours for example has stackable sliders on three sides.....the manufacturer and installer state they are designed for 70 mph....and recommend leaving them open at higher wind speeds.

Our plan is to move the furniture toward the backside of the house and leave the sliders stacked open.

[patfla06]

Don't panic! If Irma comes up through the center of Florida, it will be much weaker by the time it gets to The Villages. Start planning for a "hurricane party"! My friends just went shopping and no bottled water left. Some people panic yesterday and carried most of it out of the stores. Selfish and greed... No problem---just fill up containers with tap water. Cheaper and better for the environment anyway.

I am usually the one who ignores the weather people and all their hype. At least I haven't heard the "hunker down" phrase yet!

Thank you for your kind words!

Even though I've been through this many times it gets worse as you get older.

[justjim]

For those with enclosed lanais with slider/stackable windows, depending on your design, consider leaving them open to avoid pressure build up.

Ours for example has stackable sliders on three sides.....the manufacturer and installer state they are designed for 70 mph....and recommend leaving them open at higher wind speeds.

Our plan is to move the furniture toward the backside of the house and leave the sliders stacked open.

With all due respect, leaving a window open or even cracked is one of those hurricane myths. Google this to find out what it says about leaving a window open.

We have been through 3 hurricanes while living in Central Florida and The Villages is one of the safest places to live. That said, there could be some damage. Power failure, some roof shingles, tree damage, and flooding low areas such as tunnels etc. Hurricanes do sometimes spawn tornadoes and that could be more dangerous than the hurricane itself.

Bottom line, nobody knows for sure where this is going to make landfall---too early to know. By the end of this week, we will have a better idea about the path of Irma.

[affald]

Don't panic! If Irma comes up through the center of Florida, it will be much weaker by the time it gets to The Villages. Start planning for a "hurricane party"! My friends just went shopping and no bottled water left. Some people panic yesterday and carried most of it out of the stores. Selfish and greed... No problem---just fill up containers with tap water. Cheaper and better for the environment anyway.Clean the bathtub with Clorox and if Irma comes this way fill it with water. Good to flush and drink if need be.

[Wiotte]

My Mother, who currently resides in Heaven, just reminded me that if you make the bed and have on clean undies, no harm will come to you. It has worked for 65 years so who am I to argue with logic!?



What undies ? Commando mode is always the way to go. [emoji3]

[ShannonLee]

🙂

[Bonnevie]

just tried to find D batteries in Walgreens--none to be had. I have Amazon Prime so was able to order some that will be delivered Thurs. while we are pretty safe where we are I remember when Hugo hit SC which affected people 200 miles inland. so losing power would be a concern. and when Charlie hit Ft. Myers it cut thru central Florida. People who went to Orlando got caught up in it. But over all, we're still safest here.

[sallybowron]

Does anyone think we need to get plywood for our windows?

[affald]

Does anyone think we need to get plywood for our windows?It's unlikely Irma goes into the gulf and then comes at the villages from the west. Less likely it comes from the east.

If it hits the villages it will most likely from south after it loses strength over land.

Imo, No plywood needed.

[Bjeanj]

Well, this helps!

[Henryk]

The 12Z cycle of the NWS Spectral code takes Irma up the east coast of FL with landfall near the GA/SC border. This is consistent with the 06Z cycle. The simulation puts Irma directly east of The Villages (on the east coast) around 5AM Monday Morning. This is still out at 6 days into the future so there can be substantial uncertainties. Everything considered, this would be a good outcome for The Villages (windy with several inches of rain), less so for others. The 5PM Forecast discussion by the NHC should be an interesting read. The ECMWF code runs a bit later than the NWS code.

For those who are wondering what a "model" is, here is brief description. Essentially a "model" is a computer code that solves the 3-dimensional equations for fluid motion that describe the atmosphere. These are basically conservation equations for momentum, pressure, temperature, and several moisture variables. These are time dependent partial differential equations so they can be numerically integrated from an initial state to simulate the future state of momentum, pressure, temperature, and moisture. For the NWS code, the initial state is created every 6 hours using various data sources around the globe. Forecasters will then look at the solutions and create the "worded" forecast that you hear/read on various media sources.

Thank you for your definition and expertise in following the models. Although I couldn't repeat it, I think I understood it..., sort of, kind of..., uh, not really. But really, thanks very much.

[patfla06]

///

[patfla06]

Well, this helps!

Funniest post ever!

[justjim]

Clean the bathtub with Clorox and if Irma comes this way fill it with water. Good to flush and drink if need be.

Good thought. Most have other containers too around the house you can fill up with good ol' tap water. Should I mention you might want to put any lawn ornaments you have in the garage?

[Putt4Dough]

Irma hits Barbuda island

Huracan Irma entrando a Isla Barbuda. - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVFhnfVtspM)

[coffeebean]

This is exactly the scenario we would worry about.

Being inland you obviously don't get storm surge like the coasts. But if you get rain stalled will be a big problem. Yes going over land helps but Florida is flat and doesn't slow it as much.

Wind over 100 mph is a frightening thought.
All those loose items in your yards should be taken in.
(A reason I don't like all those rocks people put in their
Landscaping).

Praying it does not hit us or anyone else. :pray:
We lived in South Florida during Andrew. I distinctly remember Brian Norcross telling us anything along the ground would not become a missile. He told us to turn our large potted plants on their sides etc. Tornadoes, however, can make anything become a missile no matter where it is. I'm surely hoping the landscape rocks will stay put. There is an awful lot of them in TV.

[jsw14]

Don't panic! If Irma comes up through the center of Florida, it will be much weaker by the time it gets to The Villages. Start planning for a "hurricane party"! My friends just went shopping and no bottled water left. Some people panic yesterday and carried most of it out of the stores. Selfish and greed... No problem---just fill up containers with tap water. Cheaper and better for the environment anyway.

I'll be there at the Party Jim, my tap water is the same as your's...We can share the Water tooo.......

[DeanFL]

I only have one question:

Who has the key to close up the TV DOME when it's time?

[Carl in Tampa]

With all due respect, leaving a window open or even cracked is one of those hurricane myths. Google this to find out what it says about leaving a window open.

:agree:

We have been through 3 hurricanes while living in Central Florida and The Villages is one of the safest places to live. That said, there could be some damage. Power failure, some roof shingles, tree damage, and flooding low areas such as tunnels etc. Hurricanes do sometimes spawn tornadoes and that could be more dangerous than the hurricane itself.

Bottom line, nobody knows for sure where this is going to make landfall---too early to know. By the end of this week, we will have a better idea about the path of Irma.

Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.

[DARFAP]

Yellow font is virtually unreadable.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[jsw14]

Yellow font is virtually unreadable.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

:agree:... Just make it BOLD.......

[tuccillo]

Don't bother, it is a myth and scientifically doesn't hold up. The pressure difference isn't enough.

Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.

[graciegirl]

Don't bother, it is a myth and scientifically doesn't hold up. The pressure difference isn't enough.

Tuccillo are you here in The Villages now? What are your plans so we can do the same thing.

[tuccillo]

Yes, I am here. I have a tee time on Sunday morning - I am planning on shooting even par or perhaps a few strokes over ;-)

Regarding Irma, I will wait a few more days to see how the numerical guidance firms up. There is still a lot of "slop" in the solutions. I don't believe, at this time, that there will be any reason to leave but you never know. I suggest sitting tight and watching the weather forecasts. We are still 6 days out and nothing is certain, albeit I don't like the trends.

Tucillo are you here in The Villages now? What are your plans so we can do the same thing.

[njbchbum]

:agree:

Folks, for Florida, the center of the state is the safe place.

Here is how you prepare for a hurricane.

1. Have an adequate supply of drinking water. Depending upon how many people are in your household, go out and buy a few cases of bottled water. Enough for several days. Just in case.

2. Have an adequate supply of canned food for the entire family for several days.

3. Plan on losing household electricity. Have some candles, and perhaps a Coleman camp lantern for illumination. Have a couple of flashlights and fresh batteries.

Have a battery operated radio for the likelihood that you will lose cable or satellite TV due to losing electricity.

You can go for days without electricity. Pretend you are out camping in the woods, except you have a nice house to stay in instead of a tent.

The odds are you will still be able to cook on your gas stoves.

(I have camp stoves and a propane gas grill. Cooking is no problem. Mainly I heat up soups and other canned goods.)

4. Fill up the gas tanks on your car and your golf cart. After a few days you may need to go get water or groceries.

You can handle this.

Great recommendations - all of which were used during Superstorm Sandy!

Also used our outdoor solar path lights for nightime lighting - they charge during the day and are effective after dark.

We also made sure the propane tank for the gas grill was filled - often used as food defrosted in the freezer - made for some "fun" neighborhood smorgasbords!

Also had a small supply of kitchenware that could be used on the grill - learned to make what I call Cowboy Coffee:

Fill coffee filter with maximum/desired amount of grounds;
Secure with twist tie;
Toss into pot, bring appropriate amount of water to boil;
Boil to desired strength!

It's hard enough to cope with inconvenience - but doing it without morning coffee - no way! ;)

Re cellphones and laptops - we have car chargers for each so that they can be used thru power failures.

[OpusX1]

If on Friday the reports are for in excess of 100 mph winds on Sunday, we will bug out. My brother lives near Ashville.

[coffeebean]

Yellow font is virtually unreadable.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I use the yellow font in a quote where the back round color is dark green. I can see the yellow very easily on the dark green back round. I haven't seen anyone using yellow font on the creamy colored beige back round. I have, however, seen red font on the dark green back round. Now THAT is difficult for me to see.

[Happinow]

Does anyone think we need to get plywood for our windows?

I was just talking to my husband about that. I think we do at 100 mph winds.

[billethkid]

Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.

Visualize your bird cage that encloses three sides of the back of your house. Now instead of screen there are sliding stackable doors (referred to as windows) that can enclose all three sides or slide them and stack them with all three sides open.

These are the doors/windows recommended by the manufacturer to be stacked and all side open in the event of winds in excess of 70 mph.

[Carl in Tampa]

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa
Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.


Don't bother, it is a myth and scientifically doesn't hold up. The pressure difference isn't enough.

I love science. I also love experience. It's kind of like theory versus practice.

Several years ago my wife was home with our young son. She heard the tornado coming. She saw it coming. She felt a pressure building up in her ears.

She opened the front room jalousie windows. She heard the air hissing out as she did. She felt the air pressure in her ears lessen.

She saw a part of the roof of the house across the street fly up into the air. A part of the roof of the house next door flew up into the air. Our house was undamaged.

I recall that for decades science said that the Bumblebee was aerodynamically incapable of flight. Not knowing better, the Bumblebee flew anyway.

[Daddymac]

Hurricane Irma is a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185mph! The latest model data continues to be in disagreement as the hurricane approaches Florida. We do see agreement on the turn north, but where that turn occurs is the biggest question. The latest ECMWF model run shows this turn occurring much more west and it brings Irma up along the Western coast of Florida. The GFS is quicker to turn Irma and shows impacts across Eastern Florida into the Carolinas. If the turn happens quicker it could head out to sea, which shows up on a few ECMWF ensembles, but this is the least favored solution at this time. :pray::pray:

[tuccillo]

The 18Z cycle of the NWS spectral code shows a northerly track that is east of the 12Z cycle; well out over the water east of the FL coast with landfall near the NC/SC border. The path takes it through most of the Bahamas. While this would certainly be ideal for FL, the ensembles and other codes would suggest that it is not the most likely solution. The last 3 cycles of the NWS code have all favored the east side of FL.

The earlier 12Z cycle of the ECMWF code has Irma making landfall in southwest FL and then moving north up the spine of FL. The ECMWF code is run twice a day off of the 00Z and 12Z data dumps - will have to wait until early morning for the 00Z solution from the ECMWF code.

The NHC forecasters like the more southerly route in the 5PM discussion and track forecast. They would not have seen the 18Z cycle of the NWS spectral code for the 5PM discussion track forecast. Here is the latest track forecast:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/002047.shtml?cone#contents)

Tomorrow's 5PM discussion and track forecast from the NHC will be the interesting one to watch as we will see their thoughts on whether they favor the west coast of FL or up the spine of FL. However, we will be looking at 4-5 day track forecast with an average track error of 200 miles. Stay tuned.

[patfla06]

We lived in South Florida during Andrew. I distinctly remember Brian Norcross telling us anything along the ground would not become a missile. He told us to turn our large potted plants on their sides etc. Tornadoes, however, can make anything become a missile no matter where it is. I'm surely hoping the landscape rocks will stay put. There is an awful lot of them in TV.

I hope you're right!

[patfla06]

Wishing for the best, praying hard and hoping we will all be safe.

[tuccillo]

Sorry, it doesn't make any difference. There simply isn't enough pressure difference to cause an explosion. It is actually the time rate of change of pressure. This has been debunked for ages. Your ears will pop (i.e. sense a pressure change) with remarkably small differences in pressure. The roof flying off of one house and not another is not proof and is not a controlled experiment to prove a point. You can actually construct an argument that opening the windows will aid in the removal of your roof. The bumblebee story is actually another piece of urban myth.

There are lots of urban myths and scenarios that people construct that would appear to make sense but in reality just aren't true. It is never a question of "theory vs. practice". It is a question of whether it is actually true. One of my favorites is that a golf ball won't fly as far when it is humid because the air is "thick". It would seem to make sense and I am sure there are lots of people who believe this and swear by it (i.e. when it is humid I always need to take an extra club) but it isn't true. In reality, a golf ball will fly farther in humid air than dry air, albeit the difference is typically negligible.

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa
Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.




I love science. I also love experience. It's kind of like theory versus practice.

Several years ago my wife was home with our young son. She heard the tornado coming. She saw it coming. She felt a pressure building up in her ears.

She opened the front room jalousie windows. She heard the air hissing out as she did. She felt the air pressure in her ears lessen.

She saw a part of the roof of the house across the street fly up into the air. A part of the roof of the house next door flew up into the air. Our house was undamaged.

I recall that for decades science said that the Bumblebee was aerodynamically incapable of flight. Not knowing better, the Bumblebee flew anyway.

[DeanFL]

our next move:

[sallybowron]

Since my sister lives in SC and we have been planning on visiting her, we are leaving tomorrow and if the hurricane goes there, we will all go to stay with family in Cincinnati. Killing two birds with one stone. :2excited: Stay safe everyone!:pray:

[tuccillo]

The 00Z NWS and ECMWF spectral model cycles are now remarkably like each other. The NWS code is lifting the trough in the east out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is important as it impacts the steering current. Both codes are now taking Irma up the east side of FL and making landfall around SC. The NWS code is just a bit faster, which is consistent with lifting the trough out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is 4 cycles in a row that the NWS code has taken Irma up the east coast of FL. A limited area code, HWRF, is now also taking Irma up the east coast of FL with its 00Z cycle.

The 11PM NHC forecast discussion (which was prepared before seeing the 00Z runs) made reference to the earlier cycles of the NWS code as outliers and favored the more westerly ECMWF solutions. The official forecast track favors a path pointing to the western side of FL. It will be interesting to see if the 5AM forecast discussion favors a more easterly solution after seeing the 00Z cycle runs of both global codes and HWRF. Here is the official forecast track:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents)

Note that the envelope surrounding the official forecast track does encompass the east coast of FL. We are still out at 5 days with a correspondingly large potential error in the forecast track.

[Allegiance]

The 00Z NWS and ECMWF spectral model cycles are now remarkably like each other. The NWS code is lifting the trough in the east out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is important as it impacts the steering current. Both codes are now taking Irma up the east side of FL and making landfall around SC. The NWS code is just a bit faster, which is consistent with lifting the trough out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is 4 cycles in a row that the NWS code has taken Irma up the east coast of FL.

The 11PM NHC forecast discussion (which was prepared before seeing the 00Z runs), made reference to the 18Z (and previous cycles) of the NWS code but referred to them as outliers and favored the more westerly ECMWF solution. The official forecast track favors a path pointing to the western side of FL. It will be interesting to see if the 5AM forecast discussion favors a more easterly solution after seeing the 00Z cycle runs of both codes. Here is the official forecast track:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents)

Note that the envelope surrounding the forecast track does encompass the east coast of FL. We are still out at 5 days with a correspondingly large potential error in the forecast track.Great info. Thanks.

You believe the noaa link you provided will shortly change to a more easterly?

I hope.

[Nucky]

Thank You tuccillo.

[tuccillo]

Good question. I suspect the NHC forecasters will adopt a more easterly track with the 5AM forecast discussion and official track forecast based on the HWRF code being consistent with the latest cycles of the NWS and ECMWF codes. Ideally, they would probably prefer to see another ECMWF cycle (12Z cycle) bring Irma up the east coast before jumping in. Basically, you are looking for cycle to cycle consistency. The NHC forecasters are also looking at the ensembles from both global codes to judge their reliability. Regardless, we will continue to see a rather large envelope surrounding the track at 4-5 days.


Great info. Thanks.

You believe the noaa link you provided will shortly change to a more easterly?

I hope.

[Allegiance]

Tuccillo....thanks for sharing your expertise, especially potential impacts here in TV. I find your explanations technical but very understandable. Let's all hope it turns out to sea and doesn't affect the east coast.


Sent from my iPad using TapatalkLets hope. Things seem to be looking better for the villages.

Found this spaghetti model.

Irma Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane (https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-spaghetti-models/)

Most spaghetti goes east. Thank God

[Abby10]

Good question. I suspect the NHC forecasters will adopt a more easterly track with the 5AM forecast discussion and official track forecast based on the HWRF code being consistent with the latest cycles of the NWS and ECMWF codes. Ideally, they would probably prefer to see another ECMWF cycle (12Z cycle) bring Irma up the east coast before jumping in. Basically, you are looking for cycle to cycle consistency. The NHC forecasters are also looking at the ensembles from both global codes to judge their reliability. Regardless, we will continue to see a rather large envelope surrounding the track at 4-5 days.

Fortunate to have you here on TOTV. Thank you for your updates.

[Cisco Kid]

Here is a cool page to track the Hurricane day by day. As of now it shows FL a near miss as of Sunday.

Windfinder - wind, wave & weather reports, forecasts & statistics worldwide (https://www.windfinder.com)

[tuccillo]

For the fifth cycle in a row, the NWS spectral code has taken Irma up the east coast (based on the 6Z cycle). In the 5AM forecast discussion, the NHC forecasters were not fully convinced and only adjusted the track about half way east. Here is the link:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/085945.shtml?cone#contents)

Assuming the 12Z ECMWF simulation is consistent with the 00Z simulation in bringing Irma up the coast, I would expect another shift eastward in the NHC official storm track. Early this afternoon the 12Z ECMWF simulation will be available.

The SC/GA coast may be in the crosshairs.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

This shows the latest prediction from NOAA on the storm. It's not looking good for most of Florida. But it's only a prediction and we're still three days out.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/085945.shtml?cone#contents)

[Chatbrat]

What wind speed are new houses roofs and windows rated for in TV ?

[Villager Joyce]

For the fifth cycle in a row, the NWS spectral code has taken Irma up the east coast (based on the 6Z cycle). In the 5AM forecast discussion, the NHC forecasters were not fully convinced and only adjusted the track about half way east. Here is the link:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/085945.shtml?cone#contents)

Assuming the 12Z ECMWF simulation is consistent with the 00Z simulation in bringing Irma up the coast, I would expect another shift eastward in the NHC official storm track. Early this afternoon the 12Z ECMWF simulation will be available.

The SC/GA coast may be in the crosshairs.

I am extremely directionally challenged, but I see this coming right up the middle. What am I missing!

[asianthree]

What wind speed are new houses roofs and windows rated for in TV ?

We were told 120, but nothing in writing

[Allegiance]

Lets hope. Things seem to be looking better for the villages.

Found this spaghetti model.

Irma Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane (https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-spaghetti-models/)

Most spaghetti goes east. Thank GodSpaghetti is still mostly east. Just a few outliers are West. The "good" part of the storm is the west side, so if it passes east, good for us.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170906/1f8af8f8f08af1624ce75533ef47bc2a.jpg


I hope DR. Tuccillo agrees?

[Villager Joyce]

Spaghetti is still mostly east. Just a few outliers are West. The "good" part of the storm is the west side, so if it passes east, good for us.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170906/1f8af8f8f08af1624ce75533ef47bc2a.jpg


I hope DR. Tuccillo agrees?

I definitely like spaghetti better

[dewilson58]

Yes, I am here. I have a tee time on Sunday morning - I am planning on shooting even par or perhaps a few strokes over ;-)

Regarding Irma, I will wait a few more days to see how the numerical guidance firms up. There is still a lot of "slop" in the solutions. I don't believe, at this time, that there will be any reason to leave but you never know. I suggest sitting tight and watching the weather forecasts. We are still 6 days out and nothing is certain, albeit I don't like the trends.

With the possible winds, I would recommend a lower trajectory ball.

(Thanks for all your input)

[tuccillo]

The NHC forecasters had not fully adopted the thinking that the track was going to be along the east coast for the 5AM forecast discussion and track forecast. I believe the next update, assuming the 12Z ECMWF forecast agrees, will be further east. There is, of course, still some uncertainty.

I am extremely directionally challenged, but I see this coming right up the middle. What am I missing!

[graciegirl]

With the possible winds, I would recommend a lower trajectory ball.

(Thanks for all your input)

And use your one iron.

[graciegirl]

Thank you Tuccillo.

Thinking of all of you and saying some prayers.

[tuccillo]

See post #95.


This shows the latest prediction from NOAA on the storm. It's not looking good for most of Florida. But it's only a prediction and we're still three days out.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/085945.shtml?cone#contents)

[tuccillo]

I am cautiously optimistic. I would like to see another 24 hour period go by with the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes consistently bringing Irma up the east side of FL.


Spaghetti is still mostly east. Just a few outliers are West. The "good" part of the storm is the west side, so if it passes east, good for us.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170906/1f8af8f8f08af1624ce75533ef47bc2a.jpg


I hope DR. Tuccillo agrees?

[DeanFL]

And use your one iron.


As Lee Trevino once said:

"If you're caught on a golf course during a storm and are afraid of lightning, hold up a 1-iron. Not even God can hit a 1-iron"

[Ecuadog]

Thank you, tuccillo. I really appreciate that you share your knowledge.

[IADCathy]

Does anyone know of strong men who could be hired to move heavy furniture off the lanai and into a house?

[jnieman]

Does anyone know of strong men who could be hired to move heavy furniture off the lanai and into a house?

Call Albert 352-874-4689

[Putt4Dough]

Here's the latest Calibrated ECMWF EPS risk for Major Hurricane winds (>110mph) in association to #Irma; Not good for Florida & East coast

Even though latest models show eastward shift in track here in central Florida we still have greater than 50% chance of hurricane force winds >110 mph

Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice)

[Carolheap]

We are new to this part of FL. Do you think we need to get out of here? If we stay is there anything we need to do to prepare our house? We live n the preserve. Any chance of flooding and gator displacement?

[tuccillo]

Here is the latest NHC track forecast with an enormous envelope at 5 days. They have moved the track further east in alignment with the latest NWS and ECMWF spectral codes as well as HWRF.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?cone#contents)

[Sandtrap328]

We are new to this part of FL. Do you think we need to get out of here? If we stay is there anything we need to do to prepare our house? We live n the preserve. Any chance of flooding and gator displacement?

If there is very substantial rain and you live on a preserve, I would think there is good possibility of minor flooding. As for alligators, don't worry. However, snakes are much more common hazards in a flooded environment.

If you are thinking of evacuation, time is wasting. Go to Mid-Kansas or South Dakota if you want to be safe for sure.

If not really concerned, stock up on wine and cookies.

[tuccillo]

The NHC has the probability of hurricane force winds (> 74 mph) in our area at about 10% over the next 5 days. The probability of a 58 mph wind over the next 5 days in our area is about 25%.


Here's the latest Calibrated ECMWF EPS risk for Major Hurricane winds (>110mph) in association to #Irma; Not good for Florida & East coast

Even though latest models show eastward shift in track here in central Florida we still have greater than 50% chance of hurricane force winds >110 mph

Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice)

[dewilson58]

If there is very substantial rain and you live on a preserve, I would think there is good possibility of minor flooding. As for alligators, don't worry. However, snakes are much more common hazards in a flooded environment.

If you are thinking of evacuation, time is wasting. Go to Mid-Kansas or South Dakota if you want to be safe for sure.

If not really concerned, stock up on wine and cookies.

Wine & Cookies????...............don't give my Bride any ideas.

:icon_wink:

[justjim]

Too early yet but Florida and The Villages may dodge the hurricane (catastrophe) bullet once again. Of course, this could change but it's fair to say our odds have improved.

[Putt4Dough]

the nhc has the probability of hurricane force winds (> 74 mph) in our area at about 10% over the next 5 days. The probability of a 58 mph wind over the next 5 days in our area is about 25%.

see this

71261

[zmarkp]

We are new to this part of FL. Do you think we need to get out of here? If we stay is there anything we need to do to prepare our house? We live n the preserve. Any chance of flooding and gator displacement?

With hurricanes here in NC snakes would seek higher ground. My neighbor almost stepped on a moccasin coiled on his front step.

[chuckinca]

NC snakes can forecast hurricanes 7 days away!


I'll take a (BOOM) earthquake any day over the long drawn out drama of hurricanes.

.

[tuccillo]

I prefer the NHC guidance. That is all they do.

see this

71261

[Twodogs]

Just moved down recently, what tv station is the weather channel

[Henryk]

...

Also used our outdoor solar path lights for nightime lighting - they charge during the day and are effective after dark.

... Cowboy Coffee:

Fill coffee filter with maximum/desired amount of grounds;
Secure with twist tie;
Toss into pot, bring appropriate amount of water to boil;
Boil to desired strength!
...

Path lights: brilliant!

Coffee: My Polish grandmother made fresh coffee whenever the pot was empty. Get an old-fashioned on-the-stove percolator. Remove the stem and basket and throw them away. Dump grounds into pot and boil until they are white. Add canned condensed milk. Heat when necessary.

[tuccillo]

The 12Z cycles of the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes are nearly identical with the position of Irma in 120 hours (8AM Monday); just off the coast of Jacksonville. The 12Z HWRF is just a tad slower bringing Irma up the coast. There is still a large envelope of possible solutions but the cycle to cycle consistency of the models is encouraging. The next NHC forecast discussion and forecast track will be out at 5PM. I would expect the forecast track to follow the latest model simulations with a continued large envelope at 4-5 days.

[socrafty]

Thanks for your updates tuccillo, they are very much appreciated!

[Putt4Dough]

I prefer the NHC guidance. That is all they do.

The NHC wind probabilities forecast uses a very conservative montecarlo sampling method, which is only about 50% accurate for 5 day out hurricane wind probability. See this paper

Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product | Michael Splitt - Academia.edu (http://www.academia.edu/6931148/Evaluation_of_the_National_Hurricane_Centers_Tropi cal_Cyclone_Wind_Speed_Probability_Forecast_Produc t)

The ECMWF EPS Hurricane Force Wind probabilities are estimated differently. Basically they are saying if Irma follows their projected path just off the east coast of Florida and is still CAT 4 or stronger, hurricane force winds will reach out 100 miles or so from the eye. Irma has already set record for highest ACE in Atlantic with sustained winds of 180 mph more than 24 hours. It may get stronger when it hits super warm waters between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Basically, if its CAT 4 or stronger and eye is less than 100 miles from us look out.

[patfla06]

Thanks for your updates tuccillo, they are very much appreciated!

Ditto! 😊

[BK001]

Just moved down recently, what tv station is the weather channel


Hi,
We have Comcast and we get the Weather Channel on 24

[Barefoot]

justjim

Too early yet but Florida and The Villages may dodge the hurricane (catastrophe) bullet once again.
Of course, this could change but it's fair to say our odds have improved.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IMHO, the newscasters often choose sensation and drama, and worst-case scenarios,
to keep us hypnotized and glued to our screens.

[chuckinca]

Path lights: brilliant!

Coffee: My Polish grandmother made fresh coffee whenever the pot was empty. Get an old-fashioned on-the-stove percolator. Remove the stem and basket and throw them away. Dump grounds into pot and boil until they are white. Add canned condensed milk. Heat when necessary.

Add an egg to congeal grounds like my German grandma did.

.

[tuccillo]

The maximum winds are forecasted to drop as it moves up the coast. Given the track from the numerical guidance, 110 mph winds in our location are unlikely. The errors in the NHC wind speed probabilities include the implicit errors in the track forecast - typically 200 miles at 4 days.

Here are the latest probabilities for 34, 50, and 64 kts out through 120 hours - last column.

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)

The NHC wind probabilities forecast uses a very conservative montecarlo sampling method, which is only about 50% accurate for 5 day out hurricane wind probability. See this paper

Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product | Michael Splitt - Academia.edu (http://www.academia.edu/6931148/Evaluation_of_the_National_Hurricane_Centers_Tropi cal_Cyclone_Wind_Speed_Probability_Forecast_Produc t)

The ECMWF EPS Hurricane Force Wind probabilities are estimated differently. Basically they are saying if Irma follows their projected path just off the east coast of Florida and is still CAT 4 or stronger, hurricane force winds will reach out 100 miles or so from the eye. Irma has already set record for highest ACE in Atlantic with sustained winds of 180 mph more than 24 hours. It may get stronger when it hits super warm waters between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Basically, if its CAT 4 or stronger and eye is less than 100 miles from us look out.

[It's Hot There]

The maximum winds are forecasted to drop as it moves up the coast. Given the track from the numerical guidance, 110 mph winds in our location are unlikely. The errors in the NHC wind speed probabilities include the implicit errors in the track forecast - typically 200 miles at 4 days.

Here are the latest probabilities for 34, 50, and 64 kts out through 120 hours - last column.

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)

Calming number......let's hope the "good news" hold, we have a ways to go.

[Dan9871]

Latest GFS run (18z) moves Irma to the East, that is further away from the coast, but with higher wind speed.

[golfing eagles]

The maximum winds are forecasted to drop as it moves up the coast. Given the track from the numerical guidance, 110 mph winds in our location are unlikely. The errors in the NHC wind speed probabilities include the implicit errors in the track forecast - typically 200 miles at 4 days.

Here are the latest probabilities for 34, 50, and 64 kts out through 120 hours - last column.

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)

Question: If Irma made landfall at the southern tip of Florida and the eye stayed over land for 350 miles or so right up the middle of the state, how strong would it be by the time it reached TV. There is some debate over this on another thread

[Putt4Dough]

The maximum winds are forecasted to drop as it moves up the coast. Given the track from the numerical guidance, 110 mph winds in our location are unlikely. The errors in the NHC wind speed probabilities include the implicit errors in the track forecast - typically 200 miles at 4 days.

Here are the latest probabilities for 34, 50, and 64 kts out through 120 hours - last column.

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)

Yep, and here are current numbers for Miami, sorry but I wouldn't believe them if I lived there based on current track and strength projections.

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 48(80) 8(88)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) 11(63)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 8(40)

[tuccillo]

The 18Z NWS spectral code looks pretty similar to the previous runs and is keeping Irma off the east coast. It looks like the official forecast track from the NHC is a bit west of the spectral model's track. We still out at 4+ days so lots of room for error. They also continue to forecast a reduction in max wind speed and have it down considerably by the time it reaches our latitude. Numerical Weather Prediction codes don't do particularly well with tropical system intensity so this is an area where the forecasters add real value. Keep in mind that the highest winds are around the eye and they drop off quickly with distance, particularly over land where the boundary layer drag is higher (we do actually model that). Here is the latest forecast track from the NHC:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235728.shtml?cone#contents)

[Putt4Dough]

Hurricane-force winds can extend outward to about 25 miles from the storm center of a small hurricane and to more than 150 miles for a large one. The area over which tropical storm-force winds occur is even greater, ranging as far out as almost 300 miles from the eye of a large hurricane.

[pauld315]

Predictions keep moving east, it is now showing the eye skirting the east coast of FL. What I don't understand is that we all know the European models are historically more reliable, yet they don't just base their prediction on those that have been showing them east of FL. I am not a meteorologist but my prediction is that this will miss FL and might hit SC or NC but it might miss them as well. However, it is close, prepare as if it is going to make a direct hit.

[tuccillo]

Probably not that strong. It may drop down to cat 1 or tropical storm levels quickly. I would prefer to not see it come up the spine of FL as it would be pretty wet. For example, the latest spectral model simulation has Irma making landfall in SC. The model is covering the entire state with 5-10 inches of rain in 24 hours and that could be under done. Hugging the coast is problematic because of wind damage. Ideally, it would stay 100 miles off the coast but that may not be possible. We will probably see tropical storm level winds for a short period of time in The Villages and perhaps a couple of inches of rain.

Question: If Irma made landfall at the southern tip of Florida and the eye stayed over land for 350 miles or so right up the middle of the state, how strong would it be by the time it reached TV. There is some debate over this on another thread

[tuccillo]

The forecasters at the NHC look at a variety of numerical models including the ECMWF code. Both the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes are now showing essentially the same thing and are also essentially the same as the limited-area HWRF code. The NWS code actually started showing Irma coming up the east coast before the ECMWF code and has been pretty consistent for the last 6 cycles or so. We are still a ways out but it is starting to look like southeast FL and the coastal areas up the east coast will be impacted. Landfall could be around the SC/GA border. The NHC forecasters are reluctant to move the forecast track eastward any additional amount at the current time. Here is the latest forecast track from the NHC.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/030119.shtml?cone#contents)

Predictions keep moving east, it is now showing the eye skirting the east coast of FL. What I don't understand is that we all know the European models are historically more reliable, yet they don't just base their prediction on those that have been showing them east of FL. I am not a meteorologist but my prediction is that this will miss FL and might hit SC or NC but it might miss them as well. However, it is close, prepare as if it is going to make a direct hit.

[Schaumburger]

I have so enjoyed my visit to TV for the past five days, especially seeing what has changed in TV since my last visit in 2014. I was hoping to stay in TV until Saturday, but tonight I received a call from American Airlines; my Saturday night flight from Orlando to Chicago has been cancelled. I am now flying out of Orlando Thursday night to Charlotte, then flying from Charlotte to O'Hare.

I will be keeping all of you folks on TOTV and all Villagers in my thoughts and prayers this weekend as you all deal with Irma. I will be back in TV sometime to be determined after the snowbird season is over . . . take care and see you on the squares.

Irma please stay away from Florida and the southeast U.S.! :pray:

[tuccillo]

I am not sure you realize that these are essentially probability distributions. The cone or envelope of possible solutions is large and the percentages reflect that. If the cone was very narrow, the probabilities would be higher. Full disclosure: undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology, developer of research and operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for NASA and the National Weather Service.

Yep, and here are current numbers for Miami, sorry but I wouldn't believe them if I lived there based on current track and strength projections.

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 48(80) 8(88)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) 11(63)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 8(40)

[tuccillo]

The 00Z cycle of the NWS spectral model keep Irma off the east coast, actually pretty far off the east coast once it gets up to our latitude. The ECMWF 00Z cycle runs a bit later. Southeast FL is still looking like it may be seriously impacted. Landfall is near the SC/NC border. I am looking forward to the 5AM forecast discussion from the NHC to see what they are thinking. I suspect we will have to wait until Friday to see a forecast track from the NHC with a much narrower envelope of possible solutions. There is still a lot of uncertainty when Irma curves northward.

[NECHFalcon68]

Full disclosure: undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology, developer of research and operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for NASA and the National Weather Service.

Tuccillo- I continue to look forward to your updates. I know that the Weather channel and local stations have to be very conservative in their forecasts so as to protect lives, but your analyses appear to be more objective. Thanks for the info!

[MorTech]

You can go to windy dot com for this graphical info.

[Cisco Kid]

All the other models are caching up to this one now.

[tuccillo]

The large scale flow over the eastern US is controlling the steering current and will control when Irma makes the turn north. The NWS has been launching additional rawinsondes (instrument packages carried by a balloon) to help better define the initial state over the US in hopes of greater fidelity in the numerical simulations. If the turn north is sooner then a more eastern track north will happen. If it is later then a more western track north and greater impact to south eastern and coastal FL will happen. The turn north should happen Saturday afternoon/early evening. This is what the forecasters will be watching closely.

The latest cycles of the NWS and ECMWF spectral models appear to have diverged a bit with the 6Z cycle of the NWS code showing a more eastern track off the east coast and the earlier 00Z cycle of the ECMWF code being more western with the track north. The 00Z cycle of the HWRF code keeps Irma off the coast and looks more like the NWS spectral code. The NHC forecasters are favoring the more western track north with Irma crossing parts of southeastern FL and then moving back over water before making landfall in SC. The NHC forecasters are expecting a reduction in max wind speeds by the time it reaches our latitude (it is forecast to be over water). Keep in mind that there is still considerable uncertainty in the track of the storm and 100 miles one way or another is significant. Here is the 5AM updated track and envelope from the NHC.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/102752.shtml?cone#contents)

I just checked the weather.com and they have 30 mph winds forecasted for The Villages for Sunday and Monday. This might be too low for Monday.

[tuccillo]

The Weather Channel is pretty good although I would prefer they skip the drama associated with sending reporters into harm's way.

Tuccillo- I continue to look forward to your updates. I know that the Weather channel and local stations have to be very conservative in their forecasts so as to protect lives, but your analyses appear to be more objective. Thanks for the info!

[dewilson58]

Thanks Tucc

I continue to be encouraged.

There are a lot of brains on the ground analyzing the data, but I'm always impressed with the crews flying in and out of this beast.

[tuccillo]

In The Villages, we are probably in pretty good shape. It could get pretty ugly for the Miami area and coastal regions north of there. With a little luck, the max winds will diminish faster than expected and the track will be further east.

Thanks Tucc

I continue to be encouraged.

There are a lot of brains on the ground analyzing the data, but I'm always impressed with the crews flying in and out of this beast.

[Taltarzac725]

In The Villages, we are probably in pretty good shape. It could get pretty ugly for the Miami area and coastal regions north of there. With a little luck, the max winds will diminish faster than expected and the track will be further east.

I am going to be doing a lot of praying from now until late Monday night. Seems to work sometimes.

[nitch]

local hotels are filling up. my property manager has several rental properties (including mine) that are available and should be considered if displacement occurs.
this is not a add just a fyi to add to your contingency plans as a alternative to staying in a shelter.

[elevatorman]

I calculate the center of Irma is 882 miles from my home at 8 o'clock Thursday morning. This map shows current location HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone) This calculates distance to your location Latitude/Longitude Distance Calculator (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml)

[graciegirl]

I am going to be doing a lot of praying from now until late Monday night. Seems to work sometimes.

Very good plan.

Thank you Tuccillo for explanations and kindness.

Sending my guardian angel to protect all of you. As soon as I sober her up. She drinks, I don't.

Sending love and good thoughts to all.

[Putt4Dough]

I am not sure you realize that these are essentially probability distributions. The cone or envelope of possible solutions is large and the percentages reflect that. If the cone was very narrow, the probabilities would be higher. Full disclosure: undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology, developer of research and operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction models for NASA and the National Weather Service.

Yes I understand and don't doubt your expertise. I just think the NHC wind probabilities are too low. Their current numbers for Miami (and Villages) are much lower than other sources.

NHC

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 59(67) 25(92) 1(93)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 37(71) 1(72)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 32(49) 1(50)

ECMWF EPS

71272

[tuccillo]

I don't think you follow what is going on. It is a probability distribution spread over a large area of uncertainty. By definition, the numbers will be low reflecting many possible scenarios. It is best that you don't look at such data rather than misinterpret it. I suggest you just look at the weather forecast in the paper as that will tell you all you really need to know.

Yes I understand and don't doubt your expertise. I just think the NHC wind probabilities are too low. Their current numbers for Miami (and Villages) are much lower than other sources.

NHC

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 59(67) 25(92) 1(93)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 37(71) 1(72)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 32(49) 1(50)

ECMWF EPS

71272

[New Englander]

I closed on my Village of Pinellas Villa 10 days ago and stayed in it for a week. I'm back up north now and deeply concerned. There's nothing I can do except pray. Be safe and God Bless you all.

[tuccillo]

Just a suggestion. If you have one of those signs with your name that hangs from your outside lamp post, you might want to take it off and bring it inside as it will be getting gusty in Sunday and Monday. Those things can really rattle around.

[dewilson58]

I closed on my Village of Pinellas Villa 10 days ago and stayed in it for a week. I'm back up north now and deeply concerned. There's nothing I can do except pray. Be safe and God Bless you all.

It's scary because of all the hype, mis-information and media. Listen to the veterans (I'm not one), they have been thru this before. Tucc is giving really good information. Others are trying to prove something they can't do.

Lots of good people and neighbors in TV watching out for you.

[tuccillo]

Do you have a home watch service to keep an eye on things? Do your neighbors have your phone number up north? I believe you can count on your neighbors to let you know if anything needs attention.

I closed on my Village of Pinellas Villa 10 days ago and stayed in it for a week. I'm back up north now and deeply concerned. There's nothing I can do except pray. Be safe and God Bless you all.

[Ecuadog]

Just a suggestion. If you have one of those signs with your name that hangs from your outside lamp post, you might want to take it off and bring it inside as it will be getting gusty in Sunday and Monday. Those things can really rattle around.

Did that. I also put my house numbers on a piece of paper in my front window. Draw or print them large enough to be read from emergency vehicles in the street.

[New Englander]

Do you have a home watch service to keep an eye on things? Do your neighbors have your phone number up north? I believe you can count on your neighbors to let you know if anything needs attention.

The full time resident that lives across the street.

[Putt4Dough]

in the villages, we are probably in pretty good shape. It could get pretty ugly for the miami area and coastal regions north of there. With a little luck, the max winds will diminish faster than expected and the track will be further east.

71274

[Putt4Dough]

latest ECMWF rainfall predictions

71275

[ColdNoMore]

While I will be staying, I'm certainly not going to look down my nose at those who choose to get out...because they may turn out to have been the smart ones.

While I wouldn't be surprised with heavy rainfall and even winds that could reach 70+ mph, we could also very easily lose electricity for days...so that's the primary issue that I'm planning on and preparing for. :shrug:

[CowBubba]

Keep in mind, if you have a gas grill, you can purify water and cook food. I also have a pot for low country boil, so I am ready for anything.

[Chatbrat]

Unless you've been in Fl without a/c get ready- its akin to living on an old diesel submarine in extreme heat and not being able to shower until you returned to port or encountered a squall and getting a free shower from mother nature--honestly I don't think most people here ar ready for that degree of uncomforted

But I think we might have really dodged the bullet

[Aloha1]

First, thanks to our resident expert for his dedication to bringing us the latest data in a form all can understand. I noticed several of Tuccillo's posts were made at 2AM in the morning! I was scheduled to fly back Sunday but my flight is cancelled. SO, we'll have to wait and see. Prayers for all who are hunkering down.

Had a thought about the neighborhood pools in the event of a several day power failure. Wouldn't be good for more than a day or two but a dip in a local pool would help cool off everyone and make you feel cleaner.

[Putt4Dough]

Unless you've been in Fl without a/c get ready- its akin to living on an old diesel submarine in extreme heat and not being able to shower until you returned to port or encountered a squall and getting a free shower from mother nature--honestly I don't think most people here ar ready for that degree of uncomforted

But I think we might have really dodged the bullet

Really? Why?

Comparison of Andrew and Irma

71286

[Putt4Dough]

NHC finally gets to the party and get close to ECMWF wind predictions

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 56(81) 1(82)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 1(54)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) 53(92) 3(95) X(95)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 64(70) 7(77) X(77)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 7(53) X(53)

[Ragman]

New NHC 5:00 PM advisory shows Irma's eye 35 miles east of the Villages. Probability of hurricane force winds in TV went from 7% to 31%.

Wind Category 4 or upper end Category 3.

Even if the track moves farther west, we would still be in the right front (bad) quadrant.

I lived right on the coast for 20 years in the Florida panhandle and saw my share of bad storms, but never thought I would see a storm as scary as this in The Villages.

[tuccillo]

The 5PM NHC forecast discussion and track forecast have moved things west. This is consistent with the ECMWF 12Z cycle. Here is the latest NHC storm track:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154730.shtml?cone#contents)

I recommend that you follow the latest forecast from the NHC via the Weather Channel or network TV. There is likely to be some fine tuning of the forecast track but it is looking likely that the track will be up the east coast with some time over land.

[Moderator]

Please keep your posts on topic of the current weather system.

A number of posts were removed where some members were questioning others' facts and opinions.

You can disagree on the science but do it respectfully.

This is too important a topic to get hung up on personalities.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[tuccillo]

The 5 PM NHC forecast track is east of The Villages so we are on the "good" side of the track. There is still a lot of time before the track can be nailed down.

New NHC 5:00 PM advisory shows Irma's eye 35 miles east of the Villages. Probability of hurricane force winds in TV went from 7% to 31%.

Wind Category 4 or upper end Category 3.

Even if the track moves farther west, we would still be in the right front (bad) quadrant.

I lived right on the coast for 20 years in the Florida panhandle and saw my share of bad storms, but never thought I would see a storm as scary as this in The Villages.

[Putt4Dough]

Comparison in size of Andrew(left) and Irma, make your own judgement.

71288

[affald]

Thinking of chilling down the house to 70 degrees or as low as I can get it before impact so the house will at least stay cool for a while if power goes out. Thoughts?

[NotGolfer]

The storm has moved a bit to the west and they're saying it will go up the center of the state. The governor is speaking as I type (6:18pm) I watch Channel 6. Praying for the best and preparing for the worst!!

[jtdraig]

Thank you, Mr/Ms. Moderator! Much appreciated...

[dewilson58]

The Weather Channel just updated their maps and indicated The Villages with 4 inches of rain thru Monday.

Orlando up to 8 inches.

Still encouraged.

Thanks for all your updates Tucc.

[twoplanekid]

Did anyone see the new European track of Erma on the news today at 6 P.M. that takes it directly over the Villages? We may experience the eye of the storm.

[tuccillo]

The official forecast from the NHC has the track east of us. It is still 3 days out - lots of things can change.

Did anyone see the new European track of Erma on the news today at 6 P.M. that takes it directly over the Villages? We may experience the eye of the storm.

[tuccillo]

The 18Z (the latest cycle) NWS spectral model's precipitation forecast shows more like 5-10 inches with the track shift to the west. It is still 3 days out - keep following the latest results on the Weather Channel. With the latest westward movement of the track, I think wind is more of a concern for us in The Villages. I start to worry about losing roofing shingles. The numerical model guidance has really been a roller coaster over the last several day - up the middle of the FL, landfall over southwest FL, up the east coast, and now up the east half of FL. Saturday afternoon will be the time when the track is nailed down once it makes the turn to the north. I believe the official track is east of the latest ECMWF track (12Z cycle).

The 18Z NWS spectral model shows Irma over land for the southern portion of the east coast of FL and then moving over the coastal region of north eastern FL before making landfall again in SE GA. This is consistent with the 12Z cycle of the HWRF code. A 50-100 mile variance in the track actually make a big difference in how we are impacted. Stay tuned.

The Weather Channel just updated their maps and indicated The Villages with 4 inches of rain thru Monday.

Orlando up to 8 inches.

Still encouraged.

Thanks for all your updates Tucc.

[mopper]

Like many others I value Tucc opinions on this subject

[tuccillo]

Thanks so much. I really recommend watching the Weather Channel for the latest updates as we move into the final stages of this thing. We are still a couple of days out and the track and intensity can change but a track over land is starting to look more likely. Saturday afternoon is important for the move to the north.

Like many others I value Tucc opinions on this subject

[jtdraig]

Add my name to those who are very grateful for your updates. Thank you!!!!!!

[patfla06]

If someone can explain to me the " logic" on the Weather Channel tonight ---- they show Irma covering the entire state of
Florida with winds by us (when it gets to us) at around 130 mph.

Then in the right corner they say:
When it comes into Orlando the wind gusts will be
75+ mph, with 8" of rain.

How does 130 equal 75+???

[dewilson58]

Thanks Tucc

[tuccillo]

I didn't see this report on the Weather Channel but I can make a guess. The max winds near the eye wall might be expected to be 130 mph but away from the eye wall the winds will be less. The official track is east of us.

If someone can explain to me the " logic" on the Weather Channel tonight ---- they show Irma covering the entire state of
Florida with winds by us (when it gets to us) at around 130 mph.

Then in the right corner they say:
When it comes into Orlando the wind gusts will be
75+ mph, with 8" of rain.

How does 130 equal 75+???

[patfla06]

I didn't see this report on the Weather Channel but I can make a guess. The max winds near the eye wall might be expected to be 130 mph but away from the eye wall the winds will be less. The official track is east of us.

Thanks! :BigApplause:

[maryanna630]

Thanks, Tuc for being the voice of reason.

[Ragman]

I didn't see this report on the Weather Channel but I can make a guess. The max winds near the eye wall might be expected to be 130 mph but away from the eye wall the winds will be less. The official track is east of us.

I agree with what you are saying, but the NHC track is right over Orlando, so it does seem contradictory information. :shrug:

[Soxman]

We are really nervous with the track going right over us. Our windows are not built for that strength of wind. I wish someone would address inland situations on television.

[Blessed2BNTV]

Now I'm getting concerned, real concerned.

Tuccillo, are you staying in The Villages?

[Happinow]

I'm very worried...going to get the tiny laundry room set up tomorrow for us to stay in for the dangerous part of the storm. We will attempt to put a small air mattress down to sleep on the floor. Need to be away from the windows. We feel this will be the safest place for us.

[tuccillo]

Yes, we are staying in The Villages.

The 00Z cycle of the NWS spectral code will be available in about 2 hours. In the 11PM NHC forecast discussion, the forecasters are forecasting a pretty rapid drop in max wind speed after landfall. Here are the wind forecasts:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 74.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 76.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.2N 81.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 32.0N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 35.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

00Z the 11th is Sunday evening at 8PM and the position is south of us over Lake Okeechobee. These times correspond to the forecast track positions in the following link.


HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?cone#contents)

Now I'm getting concerned, real concerned.

Tuccillo, are you staying in The Villages?

[ColdNoMore]

Yes, we are staying in The Villages.

The 00Z cycle of the NWS spectral code will be available in about 2 hours. In the 11PM NHC forecast discussion, the forecasters are forecasting a pretty rapid drop in max wind speed after landfall. Here are the wind forecasts:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 74.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 76.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.2N 81.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 32.0N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 35.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

00Z the 11th is Sunday evening at 8PM and the position is south of us over Lake Okeechobee. These times correspond to the forecast track positions in the following link.


HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?cone#contents)

I just saw on the Weather Channel where we could have 100mph+ winds...even here.

It's so big, that it can get energy from both the Gulf and the Atlantic....since it's only 140 miles from one to the other here in The Villages.

I'm just accepting that I might lose shingles/part of my roof, maybe some windows, wind-driven water damage...but it shouldn't be life-threatening (minus tornadoes).

Anything less than that...and I'll feel lucky. :shrug:

[Blessed2BNTV]

Yes, we are staying in The Villages.

The 00Z cycle of the NWS spectral code will be available in about 2 hours. In the 11PM NHC forecast discussion, the forecasters are forecasting a pretty rapid drop in max wind speed after landfall. Here are the wind forecasts:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 74.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 76.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.2N 81.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 32.0N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 35.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

00Z the 11th is Sunday evening at 8PM and the position is south of us over Lake Okeechobee. These times correspond to the forecast track positions in the following link.


HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?cone#contents)

Thanks for your quick response. I will continue to watch for your posts.

[tuccillo]

This thing is still 3-4 days out and the envelope of where it could go is still very wide at that time period. The surface drag, once it gets over land, will take a toll on the max wind speeds. If the current 11PM forecasted track was to verify, it could be down to cat 1 level when it gets in our area. Stay tuned ...

I just saw on the Weather Channel where we could have 100mph+ winds...even here.

It's so big, that it can get energy from both the Gulf and the Atlantic....since it's only 140 miles from one to the other here in The Villages.

I'm just accepting that I might lose shingles/part of my roof, maybe some windows, wind-driven water damage...but it shouldn't be life-threatening (minus tornadoes).

Anything less than that...and I'll feel lucky. :shrug:

[Ragman]

The coordinates of the Villages is roughly:

28 degrees 56 minutes North

81 degrees 57 minutes West

That will give you some idea where we are in relation to the forecast advisory.

[Soxman]

We have frame and siding house. Hope it holds up. Large windows on east side of house supposed to good to 130 mph. Too late to find plywood. Will hunker down in the tiny laundry room, inside room with no windows. Hope the garage door is good. 2014 designer home.

[Ragman]

The 11:00 PM advisory from the NHC now has the "little black line" through Fruitland Park.

:(

[Taltarzac725]

The 11:00 PM advisory from the NHC now has the "little black line" through Fruitland Park.

:(

Scary stuff.

[Chatbrat]

Get ready to be without power for a week-no showers-stinky bug bitten-load your car with gas and important stuff-go towards TN

[tuccillo]

The 5AM NHC forecast track continues to mostly follow the ECMWF spectral code with the track moving just to the east of us. The 6Z NWS spectral code has the track a bit further east. It is forecast to be in our vicinity around early Monday morning as a cat-1 or cat-2 storm. This track still has a large envelope of possible locations but is starting to look more and more solid.

Here are the forecasted wind maximums. 6Z on the 11 is 2AM Monday morning and is still a bit south of us.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.7N 73.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.6N 77.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 23.3N 79.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 33.0N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

Here is the latest official NHC forecast track:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093751.shtml?cone#contents)

[Soxman]

So 105 mph winds for us.

[PPreu]

More like 75 mph.

[tuccillo]

Based on the current forecast, I think that is a reasonable number - could be a bit higher. The max winds will be decreasing rapidly as it moves north. We are still 3 days out and hurricane intensity is more difficult to estimate than the track. And the track forecasts typically have 200+ mile errors at 4-5 days.

The 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral code computes 5+ inches of precipitation in our area for the next 5 days. Some of that is before we start being directly impacted by Irma. If the track does come in a bit west of the NWS spectral code then higher amounts are possible. You may hear even higher amounts from forecasters as they adjust the raw model output.

More like 75 mph.

[villages07]

Any thoughts on what the predominant wind direction might be for the worst of the winds?

Also, which scenario is less dangerous for TV...storm coming up the spine that may weaken or storm going up the east coast so it is further away but might retain more of its strength?


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[NECHFalcon68]

Based on the current forecast, I think that is a reasonable number. The max winds will be decreasing rapidly as it moves north.

The 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral code computes 5+ inches of precipitation in our area for the next 5 days. Some of that is before we start being directly impacted by Irma. If the track does come in a bit west of the NWS spectral code then higher amounts are possible. You may here even higher amounts from forecasters as they adjust the raw model output.

Tuc - how dependable is that precipitation forecast? Recently we had a storm that brought close to 4 inches in 2 hours. 5 inches over 5 days doesnt seem to be an issue.

[tuccillo]

Precipitation computations inside of the forecast codes is complicated, difficult, and have significant errors as you get further out in time. Also, convective precipitation, as opposed to the steady rain associated with large cool weather systems, is more difficult. So, that is the number the forecast code is putting out and that is a pretty big number over a pretty large area. I should have prefaced my original comment with "that is a pretty big number". It could be, and probably will be higher. Along the coastal regions, the NWS code is putting out 10-15 inches and the HNC forecasters think the NWS spectral code is too far east so that would argue for higher amounts in our area. I suggest listening to what the forecasters are saying on the Weather Channel or network TV.

Tuc - how dependable is that precipitation forecast? Recently we had a storm that brought close to 4 inches in 2 hours. 5 inches over 5 days doesnt seem to be an issue.

[NECHFalcon68]

Precipitation computations inside of the forecast codes is complicated, difficult, and has significant errors as you get further out in time. Also, convective precipitation, as opposed to the steady rain associated with large cool weather systems, is more difficult. So, that is the number the forecast code is putting out and that is a pretty big number over a pretty large area. I should have prefaced my original comment with "that is a pretty big number". It could be, and probably will be higher. Along the coastal regions, the NWS code is putting out 10-15 inches. I suggest listening to what the forecasters are saying on the Weather Channel or network TV.

Capisce.
Thanks!

[jimbo2012]

Assuming it passes to the east the wind should start East > NE then north.

It is in a counter clockwise rotation

[larbud]

[QUOTE=jimbo2012;1444720]Assuming it passes to the east the wind should start East > NE then north.

It is in a counter clockwise rotation

[tuccillo]

Here is the latest precipitation forecast from the NHC forecasters. We are in the middle of the 6-10 inch band. If you draw a line between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, The Villages is not quite half way along that line (slightly west of the middle of the line). This seems like a reasonable estimation from the forecasters based on 5+ inches from the 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral model with an eastward bias on the track.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093751.shtml?rainqpf#contents)

[tuccillo]

The 11AM forecast discussion has the latest maximum wind forecasts. Here they are:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

12Z on the 11th (the 72 hour forecast) is Monday at 8AM. The position of Irma is forecasted to be just north of The Villages and the forecast maximum wind is forecasted to be 75 mph.

[villages07]

Here is the latest precipitation forecast from the NHC forecasters. We are in the middle of the 6-10 inch band. If you draw a line between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, The Villages is not quite half way along that line (slightly west of the middle of the line). This seems like a reasonable estimation from the forecasters based on 5+ inches from the 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral model with an eastward bias on the track.

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093751.shtml?rainqpf#contents)



The 11am update shows another significant shift to the west. A trend that started yesterday pm. Do you think this trend will continue and how much further can it shift..enough to greatly reduce our exposure?


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[NECHFalcon68]

The 11am update shows another significant shift to the west. A trend that started yesterday pm. Do you think this trend will continue and how much further can it shift..enough to greatly reduce our exposure?


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wouldnt a westerly shift put us in the NE quadrant where tornadoes are a problem?

[villages07]

wouldnt a westerly shift put us in the NE quadrant where tornadoes are a problem?



True...I was wondering about possibility of a big westward shift into the gulf that takes us out of the eye wall range.


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[tuccillo]

Wow - the storm track has shifted west with the 5PM forecast discussion. Here is the latest:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?cone#contents)

Please watch the Weather Channel or network TV to keep on top of the evolving situation.

[dewilson58]

Shifting West...........I assume it's best if it stays over land and not go out to sea.

Hoping the move West of TV (rather than "over") is an improvement.

THANKS Tucc!!

[ColdNoMore]

Tallahassee better be preparing...just in case.

[tophcfa]

Wow - the storm track has shifted west with the 5PM forecast discussion. Here is the latest:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?cone#contents)

Please watch the Weather Channel or network TV to keep on top of the evolving situation.

Tuccillo, your highly educated interpretation of the storm forecasts, as they are updated, is very much appreciated. IMHO, much more informative than watching the weather channel and other news sources. Please keep them coming.

[BostonRich]

Shifting West...........I assume it's best if it stays over land and not go out to sea.

Hoping the move West of TV (rather than "over") is an improvement.

THANKS Tucc!!

I know that the northeast part of the storm is the "dirty" or worst part. Also it's the section that spawns tornadoes. So moving west of us is probably not an improvement but actually could be much worse.

[tuccillo]

Based on the 11PM forecast discussion, we are still in the 6-10 inch range for rainfall:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?rainqpf#contents)

The NHC forecasted path continues up the west coast of FL:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?cone#contents)

The maximum forecasted windspeeds for Irma are about 100 mph as the storm is forecasted to pass to our west on Monday morning. We should experience something less than that.

[justjim]

Our houses in TV our built to handle 100 mph winds and then some.

[tuccillo]

The effective wind speeds are greater on the east side as a storm is moving north because the storm's forward motion is added to the wind speed from the pressure gradient.

I know that the northeast part of the storm is the "dirty" or worst part. Also it's the section that spawns tornadoes. So moving west of us is probably not an improvement but actually could be much worse.

[paulascorpio]

Our windows are made to withstand 129 mph winds......the roofs not sure.

[tuccillo]

The latest cycles of the forecast models show the storm tracks from the NWS spectral and HWRF codes to the east of the ECMWF code. The NHC forecasters are going with the more western track as Irma moves north. Here is the latest 5AM forecast track from the NHC:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?cone#contents)

The NHC precipitation forecast still shows us in the 6-10 inch range:

HURRICANE IRMA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?rainqpf#contents)

[socrafty]

tuccillo, any idea what the wind prediction is right now for us? These maps have me seeing cross-eyed! If I am looking at it correctly, they are saying 60mph, but not sure. Once again, thanks for all of your input on this storm!

[Cisco Kid]

>>>

[socrafty]

>>>

Thanks Cisco!

[tuccillo]

Gusts over 80 mph seems to be reasonable for Monday. I recommend watching the Weather Channel and/or the local news for the latest thinking by the NHC.

tuccillo, any idea what the wind prediction is right now for us? These maps have me seeing cross-eyed! If I am looking at it correctly, they are saying 60mph, but not sure. Once again, thanks for all of your input on this storm!

[graciegirl]

Gusts over 80 mph seems to be reasonable for Monday. I recommend watching the Weather Channel and/or the local news for the latest thinking by the NHC.

We won't have power on Monday is my guess. Could you ride around in your golf cart and tell us? I will share our Twinkies with you.

[fw102807]

>>>

What is the URL where you obtained this image?

[SFSkol]

PLEASE, PLEASE STOP posting uninformative posts. There are people posting here with really important data. SO PLEASE PLEASE STOP!

[Cisco Kid]

What is the URL where you obtained this image?

Mike's weather page on Facebook posted it from the national weather service . NWS Symbol Corner photo.
He is posting stuff from many weather sites.

[fw102807]

Mike's weather page on Facebook posted it from the national weather service . NWS Symbol Corner photo.
He is posting stuff from many weather sites.

Thanks good to know

[Cisco Kid]

PLEASE, PLEASE STOP posting uninformative posts. There are people posting here with really important data. SO PLEASE PLEASE STOP!

" IF " your are referring to Mike's weather page. You might want to check it out 1st, before to speak.

Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy! (http://www.spaghettimodels.com)

[SFSkol]

Not at all, that's exceptionally informative. I'm talking about people with thousands of posts that feel they just need to say something/anything. (My last post on this thread.) Keep the information coming.

[caz2345!]

TWC just posted TV will get 8" of rain!

[affald]

My noaa app shows storm moving due west at 9 mph.


I think that is good for us?? More slow interaction with cuba will lessen wind speeds and maybe the eye will be more west when it gets here.

[affald]

What is the best local radio station to listen to for tornado , hurricane info?

[affald]

Direction just changed to wnw 9 mph.

I hope the next update moves everything west.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

My noaa app shows storm moving due west at 9 mph.


I think that is good for us?? More slow interaction with cuba will lessen wind speeds and maybe the eye will be more west when it gets here.

The worst case scenario is if the eye is over the Gulf as it moves north. Hurricanes feed off of and strengthen when the eye is over warm water. The best thing that could happen is if the eye were to move up the center of the state. That would cause the storm to weaken the faster.

This eye is 70 miles wide so if it is just offshore over the Gulf, TV will be within the eye wall where the winds are the strongest.
Whatever strength it loses by going over Cuba will be regained when it moves northward between Cuba and Key West.

Right now, things do not look good for anyplace in the state of Florida.

[affald]

The worst case scenario is if the eye is over the Gulf as it moves north. Hurricanes feed off of and strengthen when the eye is over warm water. The best thing that could happen is if the eye were to move up the center of the state. That would cause the storm to weaken the faster.

This eye is 70 miles wide so if it is just offshore over the Gulf, TV will be within the eye wall where the winds are the strongest.
Whatever strength it loses by going over Cuba will be regained when it moves northward between Cuba and Key West.

Right now, things do not look good for anyplace in the state of Florida.I hope it goes very far west.

[Ragman]

As of now all the guidance follows the coastline almost exactly, dipping in and out.

NHC gives following wind percentages for The Villages:

THE VILLAGES 34 3 18(21) 74(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
THE VILLAGES 50 X 1( 1) 74(75) 12(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 45(45) 15(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)

Numbers are in knots.

I believe this will be a close call for us here in The Villages. Could go either way.

[jimbo2012]

Channel 2 news forecast max gusts at 80

They also said tornadoes associated with hurricanes are short lived and average 65-135mph

not the 200-300 mph we may think of

[Barefoot]

https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/DCT_SPECIAL29_1280x720.jpg?v=ap&w=1280&h=720&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

From the internet. Easy to understand. Can change on a dime of course.

[affald]

Go west young man!