What amount of rain will begin flooding in TV?

[maybe]

If any residents of The Villages have a connection with the powers that be in The Villages, try to get an answer to the most important question: Factoring in the current high level of the retention ponds, how many inches of rain can we have before houses begin to flood in the most susceptible village?

Actually, we should have that information available to us for every village, because without it, we cannot make much use of weather predictions of X inches of rain.

BTW, some seem to think that having a drain grate near your house in the road or your backyard somehow means your house could not be flooded. Maybe some drains go to a big lake, but most here simply go to a nearby retention pond, and when that pond is overflowing, don't expect your local drain to be of much good unless your house is on a hill or higher plateau.

[autumnspring]

If any residents of The Villages have a connection with the powers that be in The Villages, try to get an answer to the most important question: Factoring in the current high level of the retention ponds, how many inches of rain can we have before houses begin to flood in the most susceptible village?

Actually, we should have that information available to us for every village, because without it, we cannot make much use of weather predictions of X inches of rain.

BTW, some seem to think that having a drain grate near your house in the road or your backyard somehow means your house could not be flooded. Maybe some drains go to a big lake, but most here simply go to a nearby retention pond, and when that pond is overflowing, don't expect your local drain to be of much good unless your house is on a hill or higher plateau.

If, your home location is normally wet-puddles on your lawn etc, It will be wetter.

Will your storm drains take all the water? That depends on original design and residents as well as workers dumping trash-soda, water bottles, etc down the storm drains.

GONNA BE A TEST. Your house and property was BUILT to a certain spec. BUT, what about stuff added later-SOLAR COLLECTORS? POOLS? LAWN DECOR? PLANTINGS? SATELLITE DISHES? GLASSED IN LINAI?

[CowBubba]

We're so flat rain is not a concern, but tornados that can span from a huricane will be the culpri of destruction. I will hope real hard that we are all safe.

[autumnspring]

If any residents of The Villages have a connection with the powers that be in The Villages, try to get an answer to the most important question: Factoring in the current high level of the retention ponds, how many inches of rain can we have before houses begin to flood in the most susceptible village?

Actually, we should have that information available to us for every village, because without it, we cannot make much use of weather predictions of X inches of rain.

BTW, some seem to think that having a drain grate near your house in the road or your backyard somehow means your house could not be flooded. Maybe some drains go to a big lake, but most here simply go to a nearby retention pond, and when that pond is overflowing, don't expect your local drain to be of much good unless your house is on a hill or higher plateau.

I do not SEE any plan being put together. No effort to trim the palms or remove the spanish moss from the large oaks around here. That moss when wet is a lot of weight for the tree to hold up. Add expected 60-????? mph winds oh and wet ground, we will surely have a lot of downed trees.

We checked with the rec centers and were told THEY WILL BE CLOSED.

[tuccillo]

There may not be anyone available to answer that question in The Villages offices. You would probably need to talk with someone with a hydrology or civil engineering background with access to the infrastructure design and the assumptions that went into the design. It may turn out that getting any sort of detailed information could take some time. Our retention pond has what I believe is a weir but I am not sure where it flows to and, more importantly, what the water level is of where it flows to. We are currently about 3-4 feet below the top of the weir.

If any residents of The Villages have a connection with the powers that be in The Villages, try to get an answer to the most important question: Factoring in the current high level of the retention ponds, how many inches of rain can we have before houses begin to flood in the most susceptible village?

Actually, we should have that information available to us for every village, because without it, we cannot make much use of weather predictions of X inches of rain.

BTW, some seem to think that having a drain grate near your house in the road or your backyard somehow means your house could not be flooded. Maybe some drains go to a big lake, but most here simply go to a nearby retention pond, and when that pond is overflowing, don't expect your local drain to be of much good unless your house is on a hill or higher plateau.

[maybe]

Rain is a concern. The Villages is not perfectly flat. When the ponds fill, water will begin flooding the lowest areas, and the more it rains thereafter, the more streets and houses will flood.
The size and depth of the ponds should have been determined based upon an assumption of some maximum amount of rain. The question is, what amount of rain were they designed to handle.

[Down Sized]

Since they are in lowering the levels of several retention ponds. Obviously they believe that the ponds will not hold this amount of stormwater.

[maybe]

I called the "public safety" number today, and got referred to another office and then another. No one knew the answer. The last said she will ask a supervisor to call me back, hopefully by "tomorrow"!
I was repeatedly told that TV is working hard to lower the ponds as fast as they can, but no one could say that that will prevent flooding. Could it be that no one in authority has done the math, and no one knows what amount of rain will cause houses to flood?

[spring_chicken]

I called the "public safety" number today, and got referred to another office and then another. No one knew the answer. The last said she will ask a supervisor to call me back, hopefully by "tomorrow"!
I was repeatedly told that TV is working hard to lower the ponds as fast as they can, but no one could say that that will prevent flooding. Could it be that no one in authority has done the math, and no one knows what amount of rain will cause houses to flood?

Good grief, NOBODY can promise you that that will prevent flooding. What do you want, a written guarantee? Why keep pestering these people with useless questions while they are frantically trying to get The Villages hunkered down and safe?

[Cobh521]

I agree. The Villages is working diligently to prepare for the storm

[photo1902]

Good grief, NOBODY can promise you that that will prevent flooding. What do you want, a written guarantee? Why keep pestering these people with useless questions while they are frantically trying to get The Villages hunkered down and safe?

:bigbow:

[Biancarose]

I'm looking for someone to board my windows

[NotGolfer]

Good grief, NOBODY can promise you that that will prevent flooding. What do you want, a written guarantee? Why keep pestering these people with useless questions while they are frantically trying to get The Villages hunkered down and safe?

As for flooding....I doubt anyone can give you the answer you're looking for. This storm is the largest/strongest in recorded history! "They" don't have anything to compare with. Do we all have anxiety? I would expect so but be prepared for the worst and pray for the best!!

[Trayderjoe]

Good grief, NOBODY can promise you that that will prevent flooding. What do you want, a written guarantee? Why keep pestering these people with useless questions while they are frantically trying to get The Villages hunkered down and safe?

:BigApplause:

[asianthree]

The pond level behind our house was almost dry this summer. I do know they move water from one area to another. And will run sprinklers to lower the water. Since this will be the largest storm, no one can predict what will happen. But come Sunday you will have all the answers on flooding, power, and damage just look out your window and hope everyone south of us got to safer ground

[perrjojo]

And if we knew the answer it would not change the result st this point. Btw, flat land can flood when the ground is saturated.

[Villageswimmer]

I called the "public safety" number today, and got referred to another office and then another. No one knew the answer. The last said she will ask a supervisor to call me back, hopefully by "tomorrow"!
I was repeatedly told that TV is working hard to lower the ponds as fast as they can, but no one could say that that will prevent flooding. Could it be that no one in authority has done the math, and no one knows what amount of rain will cause houses to flood?


Not to be flippant but if someone gave you a number, what would you do with this information?

[Bogie Shooter]

Good grief, NOBODY can promise you that that will prevent flooding. What do you want, a written guarantee? Why keep pestering these people with useless questions while they are frantically trying to get The Villages hunkered down and safe?

Finally someone answered this silly question. I agree.
Do you think they will leave if they get the wrong answer?

[DianeM]

I thought it - you said it. Way too many variables to answer a ridiculous question. Did you have that type of information where you used to live?

[Polar Bear]

FWIW...

Most storm systems in Florida are designed to handle storms of nine inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 25 year design storm, in a routine and simple manner with little impact. They're also designed to handle storms of twelve inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 100 year design storm, in such a manner as to avoid a major disaster. Irma will drop much, MUCH more rain than that on many areas in a much shorter amount of time. So with respect to the drainage system...which includes streets, pipes, inlets, ponds, surface areas, everything...all bets are off. It's simply impossible to design for such an event. This is when emergency preparedness kicks in.

Your question, op, cannot be answered in as precise a way as you likely wish. Even the design storms listed above are approximations and based upon historic records. I can tell you from experience that a 25 year storm occurs much more frequently than once every 25 years. Same for the 100 year storm. That's simply the names they've had given to them over the years and they've stuck, giving some sense of magnitude even though the names are not particularly accurate.

Bottom line...12" of rain in 24 hours is about the maximum any normal drainage system is designed to handle. Irma will laugh at such numbers. But with adequate preparation, we can all still stay safe even as the drainage systems are overloaded for a period.

Polar Bear, P.E.

[maybe]

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?

[maybe]

FWIW...

Most storm systems in Florida are designed to handle storms of nine inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 25 year design storm, in a routine and simple manner with little impact. They're also designed to handle storms of twelve inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 100 year design storm, in such a manner as to avoid a major disaster. Irma will drop much, MUCH more rain than that on many areas in a much shorter amount of time. So with respect to the drainage system...which includes streets, pipes, inlets, ponds, surface areas, everything...all bets are off. It's simply impossible to design for such an event. This is when emergency preparedness kicks in.

Your question, op, cannot be answered in as precise a way as you likely wish. Even the design storms listed above are approximations and based upon historic records. I can tell you from experience that a 25 year storm occurs much more frequently than once every 25 years. Same for the 100 year storm. That's simply the names they've had given to them over the years and they've stuck, giving some sense of magnitude even though the names are not particularly accurate.

Bottom line...12" of rain in 24 hours is about the maximum any normal drainage system is designed to handle. Irma will laugh at such numbers. But with adequate preparation, we can all still stay safe even as the drainage systems are overloaded for a period.

Polar Bear, P.E.

Thank you very much for the relevant and informative post!

[gomsiepop]

I wish I had the same crystal ball that several responders have claimed the amount of rain that Irma will dump in our area. If they have the numbers for Saturday's lottery I will personally fund the amount and I promise I will split the proceeds. I have more respect for the media who are trying to update Floridians on what to expect in the next few days.

[dewilson58]

FWIW...

Most storm systems in Florida are designed to handle storms of nine inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 25 year design storm, in a routine and simple manner with little impact. They're also designed to handle storms of twelve inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 100 year design storm, in such a manner as to avoid a major disaster. Irma will drop much, MUCH more rain than that on many areas in a much shorter amount of time. So with respect to the drainage system...which includes streets, pipes, inlets, ponds, surface areas, everything...all bets are off. It's simply impossible to design for such an event. This is when emergency preparedness kicks in.

Your question, op, cannot be answered in as precise a way as you likely wish. Even the design storms listed above are approximations and based upon historic records. I can tell you from experience that a 25 year storm occurs much more frequently than once every 25 years. Same for the 100 year storm. That's simply the names they've had given to them over the years and they've stuck, giving some sense of magnitude even though the names are not particularly accurate.

Bottom line...12" of rain in 24 hours is about the maximum any normal drainage system is designed to handle. Irma will laugh at such numbers. But with adequate preparation, we can all still stay safe even as the drainage systems are overloaded for a period.

Polar Bear, P.E.

Thanks Bear!!

[Villageswimmer]

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?


Simply put, even if you know the exact amount of rain the storm sewers are designed to take, there are other factors that come into play. For example, localized flooding occurred in TV a few years ago in a low lying area.

The flooding probably shouldn't have occurred based on rainfall, but did due to debris, largely landscape pine straw, that clogged the drains.

You can't predict this. You can't control something that's uncontrollable. Further, you can't put faith in predicted rainfall amounts to base critical decisions upon. These predictions are merely guidelines and usually change frequently during a storm and can vary significantly within the isohyets. There are many variables and anomalies within a given storm. I was involved with a flood once caused by backwater from a beaver dam. No one knew it existed. I digress, but you get the point.

In your case, you might feel best if you base your decisions on a worst case scenario. That said, where in TV would you move your vehicle to "higher ground?" Do you think it's better sitting out unprotected with things flying around in the wind rather than in your garage?

That's a decision only you can make. There simply is no magic number. Nor is there a flood history of any reliability in TV. This land was agricultural before very recent residential development.

I hope this helps. Namaste.

[JoMar]

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?

Prepare for the worse.....the current estimate is 8". tomorrow it could be 18" Nobody knows and there are too many variables....plan for the 18" and if there is 8" you can smile, plan for 8" and if 18" shows up what the heck are you going to do.

[maybe]

Simply put, even if you know the exact amount of rain the storm sewers are designed to take, there are other factors that come into play. For example, localized flooding occurred in TV a few years ago in a low lying area.

The flooding probably shouldn't have occurred based on rainfall, but did due to debris, largely landscape pine straw, that clogged the drains.

You can't predict this. You can't control something that's uncontrollable. Further, you can't put faith in predicted rainfall amounts to base critical decisions upon. These predictions are merely guidelines and usually change frequently during a storm and can vary significantly within the isohyets. There are many variables and anomalies within a given storm. I was involved with a flood once caused by backwater from a beaver dam. No one knew it existed. I digress, but you get the point.

In your case, you might feel best if you base your decisions on a worst case scenario. That said, where in TV would you move your vehicle to "higher ground?" Do you think it's better sitting out unprotected with things flying around in the wind rather than in your garage?

That's a decision only you can make. There simply is no magic number. Nor is there a flood history of any reliability in TV. This land was agricultural before very recent residential development.

I hope this helps. Namaste.

Thanks for your post. Yes, I'd rather have my car get damaged from flying debris than get flooded, and totally ruined, in my garage. It is a matter of playing the odds, and the more info I have, the better I know the odds and how to play them. Rain amount predictions are not perfect, but they are much better than nothing.

[Paper1]

I have not asked for a guarantee, just info on what amount of rain the pond was designed to accept before flooding begins. It is not merely an academic matter. If the answer is 5 more inches of rain, and the prediction tomorrow is of 8 to 10 inches coming, then don't you think it would make sense to plan for the flooding by doing such things as moving your car from your garage to higher ground? And if the answer is it would require 12 to 14 inches of additional rain to flood your street, would not it make sense to then keep your car in the garage if only 8 to 10 inches are predicted?

Your question is fair, ignore the comments that attempt to ridicule you for asking. I was kind of curious myself if the Villages had a detailed elevation map but will not put request out on forum. Good luck in the coming few days.

[Bogie Shooter]

Your question is fair, ignore the comments that attempt to ridicule you for asking. I was kind of curious myself if the Villages had a detailed elevation map but will not put request out on forum. Good luck in the coming few days.

Elevation of The Villages,US Elevation Map, Topography, Contour (http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/ElevationMap/?gi=4175179)

https://www.distancesto.com/route-elevation/us/leesburg-to-the-villages/history/28903.html

[Sgroemm]

:smiley:As I teach my second graders, "there are no dumb questions, if it is on your mind, ask away"; perhaps we can alleviate your fear, share some knowledge, confirm your belief, or just offer some guidance.

[Paper1]

Elevation of The Villages,US Elevation Map, Topography, Contour (http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/ElevationMap/?gi=4175179)

https://www.distancesto.com/route-elevation/us/leesburg-to-the-villages/history/28903.html

Thank you for link. Helpful and interesting.

[coffeebean]

FWIW...

Most storm systems in Florida are designed to handle storms of nine inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 25 year design storm, in a routine and simple manner with little impact. They're also designed to handle storms of twelve inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period, called a 100 year design storm, in such a manner as to avoid a major disaster. Irma will drop much, MUCH more rain than that on many areas in a much shorter amount of time. So with respect to the drainage system...which includes streets, pipes, inlets, ponds, surface areas, everything...all bets are off. It's simply impossible to design for such an event. This is when emergency preparedness kicks in.

Your question, op, cannot be answered in as precise a way as you likely wish. Even the design storms listed above are approximations and based upon historic records. I can tell you from experience that a 25 year storm occurs much more frequently than once every 25 years. Same for the 100 year storm. That's simply the names they've had given to them over the years and they've stuck, giving some sense of magnitude even though the names are not particularly accurate.

Bottom line...12" of rain in 24 hours is about the maximum any normal drainage system is designed to handle. Irma will laugh at such numbers. But with adequate preparation, we can all still stay safe even as the drainage systems are overloaded for a period.

Polar Bear, P.E.

I didn't prepare at all for flooding. Mallory is at a high point in The Villages so I'm hoping for the best as I didn't prepare for the worst.

[Aloha1]

Map is out of date as it does not go beyond 466A which leaves out thousands of homes.

[Bogie Shooter]

Map is out of date as it does not go beyond 466A which leaves out thousands of homes.

Sorry. Guess you are on your own.