Tropical Storm Maria

[Rapscallion St Croix]

Are you kidding me?

Tropical Storm Maria expected to be a hurricane Sunday | Miami Herald (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article173811681.html)

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/bgbwg/picture173817756/alternates/FREE_768/11%20am%20maria%200917

[Wiotte]

This is hurricane season. Expect the expected.


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[billethkid]

No surprises during hurricane season except for whose turn it is:

hurricane path history - Google Search (https://www.google.com/search?q=hurricane+path+history&safe=active&tbm=isch&imgil=mwPnOHUbsoi6qM%253A%253BA5x_wz88DXlPGM%253Bh ttp%25253A%25252F%25252F2010-2014.commerce.gov%25252Fblog%25252F2012%25252F08%2 5252F13%25252Fnoaa-provides-easy-access-historical-hurricane-tracks.html&source=iu&pf=m&fir=mwPnOHUbsoi6qM%253A%252CA5x_wz88DXlPGM%252C_&usg=__eW9PCy7C8b38I3EuGFsLNwCk28o%3D&biw=1366&bih=604&ved=0ahUKEwjloa3Q1KzWAhWHWSYKHfkNAhcQyjcIUA&ei=lKW-WeWHF4ezmQH5m4i4AQ#imgrc=s4OnopviEUafhM:)

[fred53]

Are you kidding me?

Tropical Storm Maria expected to be a hurricane Sunday | Miami Herald (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article173811681.html)

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/bgbwg/picture173817756/alternates/FREE_768/11%20am%20maria%200917

is that someone is surprised it's happening at this time of year. You might think they didn't realize that Florida is in the path of many hurricanes....wow!

[Chatbrat]

We had a long time out--its our turn now--

[graciegirl]

We had a long time out--its our turn now--

Hope God or Mother Nature or that guy from the weather channel, what is his name? is not listening to you.:oops:

[justjim]

Keep your "fingers crossed" or whatever brings you good luck that Maria doesn't become another Irma. Just was watching The Weather channel myself and its projected path takes it toward the islands that already got a disastrous hit from hurricane Irma. After that, The Weather Channel makes no further path projections calling a projection path as "too early."

[raynan]

OMG, if Jim Cantore shows up here, run for the hills!

[autumnspring]

Keep your "fingers crossed" or whatever brings you good luck that Maria doesn't become another Irma. Just was watching The Weather channel myself and its projected path takes it toward the islands that already got a disastrous hit from hurricane Irma. After that, The Weather Channel makes no further path projections calling a projection path as "too early."


RE: Erma
Doesn't even have a good song.
RE: Maria
Can't get the song out of my head.

GREAT MONEY MAKER FOR THE GOVERNMENT
You pay to have a hurricane named after you.
THE CONTRACT WOULD NEED TO EXCLUDE ANY STORM DAMAGE.

[DARFAP]

Hurricane now.

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[jsw14]

Maria is Mad that her Mom (Irma) didn't do that much damage in Florida. Maria is ON the move to clean-up the mess......

[billethkid]

And by the looks of her she knows the way to FL!

[tuccillo]

The longer range NWS and ECMWF global models suggest it will stay out over the ocean and possibly impact New England as it turns north. It is still pretty far out and it will be several days before reliable guidance, regarding any possible US impact, will be available.


And by the looks of her she knows the way to FL!

[Kazmi]

Tuccillo in comparing Irma's path to Maria's it doesn't seem to similar. She's running a track lower than Irma's. Does that have any significance?

[tuccillo]

Good question. The issue is what is going in with the larger scale flow well north of the storm. With Irma, there was a substantial blocking ridge over the western Atlantic which maintained a southern track. With Maria, the longer term model solutions suggest a deep trough in the western US with ridges in the eastern US and over the Atlantic at about 55W. The weakness in between the ridges may allow Maria to curve north and miss the US.

Tuccillo in comparing Irma's path to Maria's it doesn't seem to similar. She's running a track lower than Irma's. Does that have any significance?

[Kazmi]

Good question. The issue is what is going in with the larger scale flow well north of the storm. With Irma, there was a substantial blocking ridge over the western Atlantic which maintained a southern track. With Maria, the longer term model solutions suggest a deep trough in the western US with ridges in the eastern US and over the Atlantic at about 55W. The weakness in between the ridges may allow Maria to curve north and miss the US.

Jose's position and speed heading north?

[$EGeownz]

Has all the electrical power been restored @ The Villages? I have a new portable generator capable of running everything in a house and then some.Prior to Irma I was thinking of selling it w/my house here in CT. when I come down, due to many stating the Villages hasn't lost power [I]since for ever [/but now I don't know.

[tuccillo]

Yes, some of the lower heights in the upper levels, say 500 millibars, is due to Jose. However, a ridge building in the eastern US is simulated to form regardless of Jose. The simulations are still pretty far out in time.

Jose's position and speed heading north?

[Schaumburger]

Hope Maria turns out to be a fish storm.

From The Sound of Music: Lyrics Excerpt: How Do You Solve A Problem Like Maria

Music: Richard Rodgers
Lyrics: Oscar Hammerstein II

How do you solve a problem like Maria?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means Maria?
A flibbertigibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Many a thing you know you'd like to tell her
Many a thing she ought to understand
But how do you make her stay
And listen to all you say
How do you keep a wave upon the sand

Oh, how do you solve a problem like Maria?
How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?

[billethkid]

Has all the electrical power been restored @ The Villages? I have a new portable generator capable of running everything in a house and then some.Prior to Irma I was thinking of selling it w/my house here in CT. when I come down, due to many stating the Villages hasn't lost power [I]since for ever [/but now I don't know.

I treat my generator cost(s) as if they were home owners insurance.
Hoping to never use either one.
If I had one in Connecticut or any place else it would be coming to TV....
Ya just never know!

[patfla06]

Unfortunately it reminds me of the early 2000's when we had one scare after another.

Hurricane Charlie was really a nail biter.
Didn't know where it would hit and was a Cat 4.

[justjim]

The Weather Channel is now showing models that takes Maria out to the North Atlantic. This is very good news.

[Taltarzac725]

The Weather Channel is now showing models that takes Maria out to the North Atlantic. This is very good news.

Hurricane Maria Takes Aim at Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands - NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-irma/still-reeling-irma-caribbean-digs-hurricane-maria-n802181)

Why do I keep thinking of The Sound of Music? How do u solve - YouTube (https://youtu.be/yYvyh3IIdDk)

National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

Maria looks prone to hit the Carolinas to me and not Florida.

[justjim]

The Weather Channel is now showing models that takes Maria out to the North Atlantic. This is very good news.

Whoa! I didn't mean to downplay Maria hitting those folks in the Caribbean who have already suffered more than their share. However, hurricane Maria missing the U.S. mainland is good news. :MOJE_whot:

[Kazmi]

I just hope that she doesn't bounce around like Irma did that led her in our direction. All the models are still based on Jose impacting her direction and he's losing strength (Mike's Weather Page).

[tuccillo]

The latest cycle of the NWS spectral code has Maria coming pretty close to the Outer Banks but the ECMWF code has it well out to sea. The solutions are quite different past about 8 days. It is still very early.

I just hope that she doesn't bounce around like Irma did that led her in our direction. All the models are still based on Jose impacting her direction and he's losing strength (Mike's Weather Page).

[Taltarzac725]

The latest cycle of the NWS spectral code has Maria coming pretty close to the Outer Banks but the ECMWF code has it well out to sea. The solutions are quite different past about 8 days. It is still very early.

I hope you will keep us informed tuccillo of your insights into these storms. Thank You!

[dewilson58]

Maria,

We are not open for business.

Sincerely,
The Villages

:024:

[Dan9871]

The latest GFS model track for Maria has it a bit further from the east coast 7 days from now than the one from this morning. The European track shows about the same thing. Maria is still a problem for PR. Model tracks for 7 days out can end up being different from what the final track is but for now both the US GFS and the European models show no east coast landfall.

[Kazmi]

My prayers go out to all in St Croix/US VI/PR. Maria is a Cat 5 175 MPH winds.

[tuccillo]

The latest cycles of the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes continue to show the development of a deep trough in the western US and a ridge in the eastern US. This developing pattern should keep Maria out to sea. The NWS code does suggest some impact to southeastern New England in 7 days but the storm track remains over water. A short wave does eventually make it through the ridge and kicks Maria out to the northeast. However, the timing will be important for any potential impact with New England. 7 days is too far out in time for reliable guidance.

[dewilson58]

As forecasted, the old women is down to a 3.

[Chi33]

Irma was supposed to hit Miami... just saying...

[dewilson58]

Down to Cat 2

[Chi33]

Sandy was cat 1

[dewilson58]

Tucc,

With no hurricanes bearing down on Florida..............What are you doing with all your extra time???


:confused:

[graciegirl]

Tucc,

With no hurricanes bearing down on Florida..............What are you doing with all your extra time???


:confused:

I hope he enjoys it and I am sure you do too.

Tuccillo, you were a huge help before Irma. Many thanks. We need to get a bunch of TOTV'rs together at one of the squares. So many good people.

[tuccillo]

I am back to playing golf, albeit outside The Villages until Thursday.

Tucc,

With no hurricanes bearing down on Florida..............What are you doing with all your extra time???


:confused: