Villages Housing Market

[l2ridehd]

For those that still wonder if the market in TV is changing. I have tracked the total number of VLS homes for sale for about 3 years. Today there are 450 available homes. About an average number based on the size of the market place. I have seen it as low as 390 and as high as 510. And there are about 9000 more homes for potential pre-owned since I started tracking this. So what has changed? Today there are 115 of those 450 resale homes pending. Meaning they have a valid offer and are waiting to close. I am sure a few will fall through for one reason or another, but more then 100 will go to close. That 115 pending is the most I have ever seen by about 25 homes. The market there is improving, prices are moving up, and sales volume is increasing. Good news for all owners, and a wake up call for those looking to buy, but waiting for the bottom to hit.

[Army Guy]

Interesting data, I2. We are the belief that the bottom of the market in TV has already been reached, last May, and that it indeed is heading up. What leads me to say that is, May 09, is when we were in the CYV seach/buy mode, and we bought the last CYV with a $20,000 discount, plus and already low price for an oversized corner end villa. I have continued as you, watching new CYV sales, and I have seen the prices for comparable ones priced higher and of course no where near the discount we got.
I totally agree with you, if you are thinking of buying TV buy NOW!
Army Guy

[BogeyBoy]

For those that still wonder if the market in TV is changing. I have tracked the total number of VLS homes for sale for about 3 years. Today there are 450 available homes. About an average number based on the size of the market place. I have seen it as low as 390 and as high as 510. And there are about 9000 more homes for potential pre-owned since I started tracking this. So what has changed? Today there are 115 of those 450 resale homes pending. Meaning they have a valid offer and are waiting to close. I am sure a few will fall through for one reason or another, but more then 100 will go to close. That 115 pending is the most I have ever seen by about 25 homes. The market there is improving, prices are moving up, and sales volume is increasing. Good news for all owners, and a wake up call for those looking to buy, but waiting for the bottom to hit.

Just curious, what is the source of your information?

Update - I see that you are getting this information from resale homes listed by The Villages sales department. (On The Villages website.) This may appear to be an average number based for this market place but does not take into consideration any homes offered by sale by owner or listed by real estate agencies. Add in the abundant number of new homes available through The Villages and it puts a lot of homes on the market. Things may be improving, but it is a long road back to where things were in 2005-2006. (Back then if you listed your home for sale you'd better be packed because chances were it would sell almost immediately.)

[BobKat1]

Do Pending sales include those with contingency offers?

If they do, that is another thing to consider. If potential buyers have to sell their current home before closing on the pending TV home, that could take a long time in this market, and a number of the pending offers could fall through.

The market does appear to be turning, slowly..

[l2ridehd]

Boogie, that is why I said VLS pre-owned homes. I do track MLS as well and I try to gather what I can about FSBO. My data has 100% of the VLS re-sale market, probably 90% of the MLS market and maybe 50% of the FSBO market. I do nothing with the Villages new home market. The data tracks almost the same in VLS and MLS which is 85 to 90% of the resale market. As to your comment "a lot of homes on the market", based on everything available it is still a very small % of the total when compared to other markets.

I responded using VLS resale homes as that has proved to be the most consistent view of the market place. Think of it as you wish, I stand by my original analysis.

[The Shadow]

I wonder if The Village sale people tell the home buyers about the IRS problems. I know it is not on a one day old Florida Association of Realtors, “Seller’s Real Property Disclosure Statement” that I have.

[njbchbum]

I agree that the Villages housing market bottom has already passed. I don't track the numbers of houses for sale, but for the past 4 years I have watched the prices of pre-owned homes. Last winter/spring I noticed that prices were beginning to creep up and up. When we visited in March we were fortunate enough to find our pre-owned at a price that we could not afford NOT to buy...it was market priced but our cash sale with 30 day close helped us get it at below market.

Remember, too, that now is the time to have your house for sale - the snowbirds have returned and many others are renting - 'tis the season! This is prime time for advertising. Potential buyers should take that into consideration...prices may drop a bit after they go back home - but one cannot be sure of that either.

The question of to buy or not to buy NOW always puts me into a conflicted state when I think of two old adages: Look before your leap & He who hesitates is lost.

[starflyte1]

Appreciate your time and work put into tracking the sales. We have bought a second home in TV and will be putting our original home in TV up for sale in the next two weeks. I was wondering how the prices and sales are going. Thanks again! Pat

[inda50]

I haven't seen anthing recently in this thread and I am wondering what the status is now with home prices. Do you think we will see any increase or decrease now that the incentives are over?? what do you think??

[Pturner]

Here's a link to the Trulia data:

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/The_Villages-Florida/market-trends/

[cats12470]

I was reading someone said something about an IRS problem.... is their a problem? Should we be worried? We only see positive things about the Villages... no negative.... so this one jumped out at us.... seems like most people love living in the Villages....

[SALYBOW]

I wonder if The Village sale people tell the home buyers about the IRS problems. I know it is not on a one day old Florida Association of Realtors, “Seller’s Real Property Disclosure Statement” that I have.

We are coming this weekend, Is this something we should be aware of?

[JimJoe]

Here is my prediction:
I believe after incentives are over and for the next year or two there will be another price drop in the villages home prices (about 10%) albeit less than what it will be nation wide. There is a current push is to increase the retirement age in America. That will hurt TV home prices also. The IRS issue could also hurt a bit but I see that as a minor concern.

[Jakel]

I'd like to understand more about the IRS issue too. I read articles posted a while ago, but I'd like to hear it in plain English. Exactly what was sold, was the amount $350 million, who bought the bonds which I seem to remember were sold tax free, and who is libel if the IRS determines they are not tax free?? How will new home buyers be affected by the final decision, Since this is my first post I want to Thank all of you veteran posters who have been so informative!

[inda50]

The Villages is a very unique market, alot the of pricing is dependent on what the developer does. Just outside the villages new homes sell for about 30 or 40 % less but the amenities are not equal.

[Pturner]

I was reading someone said something about an IRS problem.... is their a problem? Should we be worried? We only see positive things about the Villages... no negative.... so this one jumped out at us.... seems like most people love living in the Villages....

We are coming this weekend, Is this something we should be aware of?

Here is a link to thread on TOTV in which the issue was thoroughly discussed.

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21661&highlight=developer

As I commented in that thread, I think it makes sense to be aware of the issue before purchasing, and to weigh the risks and benefits. To us, the benefits are incomparable. TV is where we want to spend the rest of our lives when we retire. I believe this issue will play itself out in an equitable manner. I see no reason to think otherwise.

[Bogie Shooter]

I'd like to understand more about the IRS issue too. I read articles posted a while ago, but I'd like to hear it in plain English. Exactly what was sold, was the amount $350 million, who bought the bonds which I seem to remember were sold tax free, and who is libel if the IRS determines they are not tax free?? How will new home buyers be affected by the final decision, Since this is my first post I want to Thank all of you veteran posters who have been so informative!
It cannot all be repeated here again. Do a search on IRS there are hundreds of posts....what you read is what it was and is, nothing new has happened.
Here is an article that was in the Daily Sun-
http://www.districtgov.org/images/whatsnew/recnews2009031.pdf
Why worry, be happy!

[mulligan]

Check "zillow.com" an extremely user friendly real estate site. Lots of good info.

[graciegirl]

For those that still wonder if the market in TV is changing. I have tracked the total number of VLS homes for sale for about 3 years. Today there are 450 available homes. About an average number based on the size of the market place. I have seen it as low as 390 and as high as 510. And there are about 9000 more homes for potential pre-owned since I started tracking this. So what has changed? Today there are 115 of those 450 resale homes pending. Meaning they have a valid offer and are waiting to close. I am sure a few will fall through for one reason or another, but more then 100 will go to close. That 115 pending is the most I have ever seen by about 25 homes. The market there is improving, prices are moving up, and sales volume is increasing. Good news for all owners, and a wake up call for those looking to buy, but waiting for the bottom to hit.

12ridehd!

YOU are the person tracking the market in TV. I am glad someone replied to this post and although the questions were about the IRS issue, I am going to hijack this older thread to ask you what is your current assessment of the market in The Villages ?? Am I correct in thinking that the house prices are edging up slowly? The price we paid for our Camellia on a similar lot seems several thousand dollars higher than what we paid for it exactly two years ago...but figuring out similar lots is tricky.

Waiting to hear 12ridehd.:coolsmiley:

And I agree that the IRS issue will be resolved. :agree:Please read the previous threads about it. Lauren Ritchie, the reporter who covered the issue for the Orlando Sentinel is NOT my favorite journalist.

[billethkid]

in TV as cash for clunkers did for local car sales.
If you qualify and timing is right you get it. If not you buy where ever you were going to buy anyway.

Almost every developer in the country would love to have TV's slow sales of 250-300 homes per month.

One needs to keep the perspective of the market and it's environment and demographics.....and what happens else where is not an indicator of TV or any where else.

btk

[champion6]

Lyle Gant produces an interesting graph. Go to http://www.lylesellsfla.com/The_Villages_FL_listings/open_houses.shtml

On the right panel click on the red link, Villages Market Analysis. The yellow graph shows the average sale price. I believe I'm correct to assume that this is for sales for homes on the MLS only. i don't think The Villages sales (new and used) are reflected here.

[dolpterry]

The main reason for more sales in the last couple of months was the IRS tax breaks on first time and second ownership homes ,which i believe expired on April 30. You only needed a binding contract to qualify, closing could be at a latter date.

[JohnN]

dolpterry, the closing needs to be by June 30,
and I'm sure that led to an uptick in sales, plus the high season is over now so things should slow down a bit, but TV is always busy building. Their slow season would be the envy of most builders.

[2BNTV]

I am under the impresion the market for real estate is that when homes are sold for less when times are not good and you buy another home at a lesser price.
When the market is good, you sell your home for more and you will have the buy at a higher price.
IMHO - The question becomes, " Since the Villages is such a unique market because of it's lifestyle", is the value of home prices going up in relation to homes outside the bubble?

[Army Guy]

I would say at present, that the value has not dropped but is holding it's own, which to answer your question is totally opposite the majority of the US.

Army Guy