Log in

View Full Version : Maybe It's Ireland, Not Greece


Guest
03-10-2010, 08:31 AM
I have posted before that the profligate spending by our political leaders for the last decade or so, and their inexplicable unwillingness to recognize the dire financial circumstances in which they've placed the country, will ultimately lead to a severe chage in the standard of living of all Americans. This change will be the result of wealthier countries in the rest of the world--countries who have exhibited far more responsible fiscal political leadership than has the U.S.--finally deciding that they won't continue to lend us money to finance our deficit spending. They will finally decide that they want their loans repaid, rather than lending us more by buying our Treasury securities.

China has already begun to reduce the amounts it chooses to lend to the U.S. It has been sending the message of it's concern over our financial condition to our government for about two years, and has finally begun to act on it's forewarnings. In the last month alone, it has reduced the amount it has loaned to the U.S. by $64 billion. They do that by either not buying as many T-bills and bonds from us when they are auctioned, or by demanding payment on the securities they do own when they come due.

The result will become apparent in not too long. If our political leaders don't decide to act more responsibly--and they won't of course--then our government will begin to simply print more money to repay our debts and pay for government spending. The effect we will first notice is increased inflation. Because our money is worth less, everything we spend it on will cost more.

But when all the artifical "fixes" fail, we'll wind up as an indigent debtor nation. I have said it would represent Greece. But maybe not. The government of Greece seems to continue to act with less responsibility than appears necessary. But Ireland has bit the bullet. Here's an excellent article from today's Wall Street Journal which explains just a bit what the effect it is having and will have on the Irish standard of living.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704486504575097672075207734.html

(For those of you who can't navigate to this link, I've cut and pasted the entire article in a posting below.)

Because our standard of living is the highest in the world, when the decline in our living standard begins it will be far more noticeable here than in other, poorer countries. I won't go into a litany of how our standard of living will decline and how quickly. I'd suggest that it might begin with the inability of our government to pay for things like healthcare, pensions, and government payrolls for all kinds of services they currently provide, even defense spending. That's already begun at the state levels--read the articles about what's happening in California. But we'll see it from our federal government soon enough.

We'd better stop arguing among ourselves about who was responsible and who isn't facing the problem, which party is right and which is wrong, and which segment of the population should suffer more than another. The answer is that our entire elected government has failed us, and failed us for some time now. It needs to be replaced completely!

Guest
03-10-2010, 08:54 AM
The link you provided is locked and can only be opened by subscribers of the WSJ.

Guest
03-10-2010, 10:36 AM
The link you provided is locked and can only be opened by subscribers of the WSJ.

+1 Sorry, I'm cutting my spending.

Guest
03-10-2010, 01:27 PM
Where did you get the $64B figure?

Did that factor in the recent re-valuation of the yuan? The Chinese have made the yuan more expensive compared to the dollar. It's *possible* that the Chinese loaned us just as many yuan as before, but that translated into $64B (USD) less.

Guest
03-10-2010, 04:11 PM
Where did you get the $64B figure?

I can't recall exactly where I read that, but it was probably either the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, or one of the weekly news magazines...a source no more exotic than that. It was within the last month.

As I recall the article, it explained that the Chinese had sold $64 billion of their holdings of U.S. debt on the open market (that is they sold the securities before their maturity). The net result was that they had reduced their holdings of U.S. debt, which was consistent with the statements they have been making for some time now. Our debt securities are denominated in U.S. Dollars, not any foreign currency.

The most recent figures available from the Treasury Department indeed show that China has reduced it's holdings of U.S. debt. So has Japan. At the same time, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Indonesia have increased their holdings of our bills and bonds.

The author was trying to track the funds flows and concluded that the U.S. might have ultimately been the buyer of our own debt, using "new borrowings" or an increase in the money supply (printed money) to fund the re-purchase.

Guest
03-10-2010, 04:24 PM
I have posted before that the profligate spending by our political leaders for the last decade or so, and their inexplicable unwillingness to recognize the dire financial circumstances in which they've placed the country, will ultimately lead to a severe chage in the standard of living of all Americans. This change will be the result of wealthier countries in the rest of the world--countries who have exhibited far more responsible fiscal political leadership than has the U.S.--finally deciding that they won't continue to lend us money to finance our deficit spending. They will finally decide that they want their loans repaid, rather than lending us more by buying our Treasury securities.

China has already begun to reduce the amounts it chooses to lend to the U.S. It has been sending the message of it's concern over our financial condition to our government for about two years, and has finally begun to act on it's forewarnings. In the last month alone, it has reduced the amount it has loaned to the U.S. by $64 billion. They do that by either not buying as many T-bills and bonds from us when they are auctioned, or by demanding payment on the securities they do own when they come due.

The result will become apparent in not too long. If our political leaders don't decide to act more responsibly--and they won't of course--then our government will begin to simply print more money to repay our debts and pay for government spending. The effect we will first notice is increased inflation. Because our money is worth less, everything we spend it on will cost more.

But when all the artifical "fixes" fail, we'll wind up as an indigent debtor nation. I have said it would represent Greece. But maybe not. The government of Greece seems to continue to act with less responsibility than appears necessary. But Ireland has bit the bullet. Here's an excellent article from today's Wall Street Journal which explains just a bit what the effect it is having and will have on the Irish standard of living.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704486504575097672075207734.html

(For those of you who can't navigate to this link, I've cut and pasted the entire article in a posting below.)

Because our standard of living is the highest in the world, when the decline in our living standard begins it will be far more noticeable here than in other, poorer countries. I won't go into a litany of how our standard of living will decline and how quickly. I'd suggest that it might begin with the inability of our government to pay for things like healthcare, pensions, and government payrolls for all kinds of services they currently provide, even defense spending. That's already begun at the state levels--read the articles about what's happening in California. But we'll see it from our federal government soon enough.

We'd better stop arguing among ourselves about who was responsible and who isn't facing the problem, which party is right and which is wrong, and which segment of the population should suffer more than another. The answer is that our entire elected government has failed us, and failed us for some time now. It needs to be replaced completely!

You again lump the spending of Bush with that of Obama when there is no comparison. Obama is the biggest spender of all time.

Obama believes like democrats and Liberals do that you can spend yourself into prosperity which is absurb, stupid thinking.

Guest
03-10-2010, 10:00 PM
VK...this time I can agree with you ! Makes no matter what party or what "side" is doing the spending.

Had this board been around during the Bush administration (rather than just the last throes during a primary campaign) you would have heard me complaining about spending then.

But this President, this Congress, this Senate is totally in a league of their own, not only for what they have spent but what they plan to spend...how they are doing it by lying and manipulation, and the sad part to me is that there is NOTHING we can do...ABSOLUTELY NOTHING except try to send a message a long 8 months from now.

They do not listen now and turn every signal into some kind of circus and name calling event.