Slowdown or recession?

[Arctic Fox]

.
Important article on Page A9 today (Sunday)

It must be important as the same article is also on page A19
.

[billethkid]

If one did not hear the words slow down or recession what would they have to say about the economy based on their current experience, life style, spending/saving.

Most would not know any difference.

It is a numbers/trends/political/media driven guessing game that is not detectable in most of our lives.

[ColdNoMore]

If one did not hear the words slow down or recession what would they have to say about the economy based on their current experience, life style, spending/saving.

Most would not know any difference.

It is a numbers/trends/political/media driven guessing game that is not detectable in most of our lives.

Therein lies the major disconnect...of so many people here. :oops:

We really do live in a "bubble" and any attempt at inferring that our (mostly) retired lives, from a period where pensions existed and there wasn't nearly as huge a disparity in an average company's employees wages and the very highest paid in the company, is like purposely sticking ones head in the sand and screaming..."things are great and all is well." :ohdear:

[GrumpyOldMan]

The last recession resulted in several trillions of dollars of lost wealth. Some recovered, some didn't I would say for those that didn't it was significant.

In my case, I lost my 401k, my credit rating, home and wife. 10 years later I have almost recovered most, but not all.

So, yes in most of YOUR lives it may not have been detectable. But for myself and MANY others lives it was very detectable. Politics had NOTHING to do with it, economics did.

[Aloha1]

In 2008, the "great recession" was supposedly caused by mortgage defaults. Yet over 94% of Americans with mortgages paid and continued to pay on time. How in the heck did only a 6% default rate cause that mess? I suspected then and suspect now that other factors were at work.

Now we have the media and talking heads going on and on about another pending recession despite record low unemployment, low interest rates, and a healthy consumer base.. As one commenter on CNBC put it Friday, "We're just talking ourselves into a recession". And we will if this keeps up.

[Boomer]

Therein lies the major disconnect...of so many people here. :oops:

We really do live in a "bubble" and any attempt at inferring that our (mostly) retired lives, from a period where pensions existed and there wasn't nearly as huge a disparity in an average company's employees wages and the very highest paid in the company, is lipurposely sticking ones head in the sand and screaming..."things are great and all is well." :ohdear:



CNM, I agree. There is so much of a prevailing attitude of “I got mine. Too bad ya don’t got yours.”

I do not understand why there are those who cannot acknowledge that the system does not work like it once did for regular hardworking people.

Remember the old “3-legged stool” for retirement that so many of us are of an age to remember. As I recall, the 3 legs on the stool were Social Security. Pension. Individual investments and savings.

Some of us knew how to make the 401s and 403s work for us while we were still working. Many had the opportunity to tax defer more money because of not having to pay through the nose for health insurance premiums, deductibles, etc. which, now, even those with good jobs have to absorb more of.

Many of us did quite well when selling our houses, especially after the cap gains law changed in the late 90s where we did not have to reinvest primary residence profits in more expensive homes and could leave a closing table with the next house already paid for and a chunk of tax free change in our pockets. (I know that law is still in effect but I think the early Boomers and Beyond were the ones who reaped the most profits from real estate.)

We had a lot of advantages over what the next generation(s) can expect. (I wrote a dissertation about that yesterday, somewhere around here.)

Anyway, Cold, just wanted to say I, too, don’t get how people do not get it.

[Barefoot]

Now we have the media and talking heads going on and on about another pending recession despite record low unemployment, low interest rates, and a healthy consumer base.. As one commenter on CNBC put it Friday, "We're just talking ourselves into a recession". :agree: I've thought for a while that the media is talking us into a recession.
And I'm not in the Bubble right now, I'm up north for six months.

[graciegirl]

CNM, I agree. There is so much of a prevailing attitude of “I got mine. Too bad ya don’t got yours.”

I do not understand why there are those who cannot acknowledge that the system does not work like it once did for regular hardworking people.

Remember the old “3-legged stool” for retirement that so many of us are of an age to remember. As I recall, the 3 legs on the stool were Social Security. Pension. Individual investments and savings.

Some of us knew how to make the 401s and 403s work for us while we were still working. Many had the opportunity to tax defer more money because of not having to pay through the nose for health insurance premiums, deductibles, etc. which, now, even those with good jobs have to absorb more of.

Many of us did quite well when selling our houses, especially after the cap gains law changed in the late 90s where we did not have to reinvest primary residence profits in more expensive homes and could leave a closing table with the next house already paid for and a chunk of tax free change in our pockets. (I know that law is still in effect but I think the early Boomers and Beyond were the ones who reaped the most profits from real estate.)

We had a lot of advantages over what the next generation(s) can expect. (I wrote a dissertation about that yesterday, somewhere around here.)

Anyway, Cold, just wanted to say I, too, don’t get how people do not get it.

We got ours and they can get theirs but it is going to take some new skills like doing without and not buying unnecessary things and learning to save when they don't have much money. Not going on vacation, not going to musical events, and not having expensive food either out or at home. Not updating expensive phones, not getting tattoos, not buying on time.

In fact that is just how we did it.

[Boomer]

We got ours and they can get theirs but it is going to take some new skills like doing without and not buying unnecessary things and learning to save when they don't have much money. Not going on vacation, not going to musical events, and not having expensive food either out or at home. Not updating expensive phones, not getting tattoos, not buying on time.

In fact that is just how we did it.


Actually, Gracie, you will be surprised that I partially agree with what you said in the above quote — but only to the extent that what you say about bad money habits applies only to some of the people all of the time. But broad brush painting with generalizations is not something I ever agree with.

Overall, I remain of the opinion that the deck is stacked against generations behind us.

While the Orwellian talkers on television tout the unemployment rate, nobody ever talks about what kind of jobs those are and if there are healthcare benefits. Then they talk about the wonders of corporate tax cuts — which corps are using a large percentage of for stock buybacks. Thus, the market.

We are being had. And it has been oh soooo easy.

[graciegirl]

Actually, Gracie, you will be surprised that I partially agree with what you said in the above quote — but only to the extent that what you say about bad money habits applies only to some of the people all of the time. But broad brush painting with generalizations is not something I ever agree with.

Overall, I remain of the opinion that the deck is stacked against generations behind us.

While the Orwellian talkers on television tout the unemployment rate, nobody ever talks about what kind of jobs those are and if there are healthcare benefits. Then they talk about the wonders of corporate tax cuts — which corps are using a large percentage of for stock buybacks. Thus, the market.

We are being had. And it has been oh soooo easy.

My dear. You just used three in your defense of not agreeing with broad brush generalizations.

The tax cuts were to level the playing field and make U.S. Corporations equal to their global competition, in part. U.S. Corporations, "big business" is often spoken about as the devil incarnate, and usually by the segment of the population who did not ever work for private enterprise.

There are all kinds of factors at play in this kind of discussion. All kinds of biases and attitudes. I have yet to meet a person who has been a teacher in public schools for more than ten years who EVER sided with big business. I have yet to meet anyone who has earned a good living working for big business who didn't support the tax cuts.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Actually, Gracie, you will be surprised that I partially agree with what you said in the above quote — but only to the extent that what you say about bad money habits applies only to some of the people all of the time. But broad brush painting with generalizations is not something I ever agree with.

Overall, I remain of the opinion that the deck is stacked against generations behind us.

While the Orwellian talkers on television tout the unemployment rate, nobody ever talks about what kind of jobs those are and if there are healthcare benefits. Then they talk about the wonders of corporate tax cuts — which corps are using a large percentage of for stock buybacks. Thus, the market.

We are being had. And it has been oh soooo easy.


People focus on unemployment, but seldom mention employment rate which is at a all time low.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

People focus on unemployment, but seldom mention employment rate which is at a all time low.

Employment rate is at a low because people are working multiple jobs to cover the same expenses that a single job used to cover. When 20 people are working a total of 34 40-hour workweeks, the "unemployment rate" goes down.

[ColdNoMore]

Snip>....The tax cuts were to level the playing field and make U.S. Corporations equal to their global competition, in part. U.S. Corporations, "big business" is often spoken about as the devil incarnate, and usually by the segment of the population who did not ever work for private enterprise<...Snip

You really should start doing your own research and try to think for yourself, instead of just listening...to whatever sources are feeding you the lies you spew. :oops:

Tax Cuts (http://www.marketplace.org/2019/05/29/where-did-trump-tax-cuts-go/)

The economy “has been doing well since the tax cut.

It was doing well for several years before the tax cut,” he said.

Most of us are paying a little bit less in taxes, but Howard Gleckman at the Tax Policy Center said the real winners are corporations; they saw their tax rate cut almost in half. He said companies were all of a sudden sitting on piles of cash.

“They looked around to see what they could do with it, whether they could make productive investments in workers or productive investments in new capital, new equipment, and they decided that they couldn’t,” he said. “So what did they do with the money?

They just gave it to the shareholders.” Not to their workers.

The president said wages would grow substantially and quickly as a result of the tax cuts. But we’re not seeing that.

What we are seeing is companies buying their stock back from shareholders. So if you have stock in your portfolio, you’re a little bit richer.

[Mleeja]

Getting back to the topic, I am of the opinion we will see a recession within the next couple of years. The harbinger of the recession will be corporate debt. Companies are taking on debt that they will not be able to payoff, refinance or issue bonds. This will trigger a collapse in the markets. I am definitely not a financial expert, but the ones I read and trust have been taking about a down turn long before the talking heads on CNBC or MSNBC.

[Bucco]

My dear. You just used three in your defense of not agreeing with broad brush generalizations.

The tax cuts were to level the playing field and make U.S. Corporations equal to their global competition, in part. U.S. Corporations, "big business" is often spoken about as the devil incarnate, and usually by the segment of the population who did not ever work for private enterprise.

There are all kinds of factors at play in this kind of discussion. All kinds of biases and attitudes. I have yet to meet a person who has been a teacher in public schools for more than ten years who EVER sided with big business. I have yet to meet anyone who has earned a good living working for big business who didn't support the tax cuts.

Problem is in October 2017 the country was told that this tax cut would give each family about $4000 per year and wage growth would occur instantly, and despite what economist said, we were told it was fake news that corporations were the only ones to gain.

An interesting spin that this post puts on it.

[Aloha1]

Problem is in October 2017 the country was told that this tax cut would give each family about $4000 per year and wage growth would occur instantly, and despite what economist said, we were told it was fake news that corporations were the only ones to gain.

An interesting spin that this post puts on it.

And you were told a lie. latest data out shows wages increased 4.2 % in 2018 and are up another 5% in 2019 to date. Recall the media stories of people who claimed the 2017 tax act cost them money because they didn't get as much back when they filed their tax return as they did before. Never occurred to them that they didn't pay as much in tax to begin with. The media is complicit in the dumbing down of America.

[ColdNoMore]

And you were told a lie. latest data out shows wages increased 4.2 % in 2018 and are up another 5% in 2019 to date. Recall the media stories of people who claimed the 2017 tax act cost them money because they didn't get as much back when they filed their tax return as they did before. Never occurred to them that they didn't pay as much in tax to begin with. .

Source?

Here's mine.

BLS (http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2019/real-average-hourly-earnings-increased-1-point-5-percent-over-the-12-months-ending-june-2019.htm)

For production and nonsupervisory employees, average hourly earnings increased 1.9 percent from June 2018 to June 2019. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 1.3-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.


The media is complicit in the dumbing down of America.
On that...we actually agree.

Of course, it all depends on what "media"...you choose to watch. :1rotfl:

[Aloha1]

So much does not make sense to me. Children ripped from their parents, caged, and nobody seems to notice. Too many seem to feel because those little kids are a different color, they are invisible and do not count.

Boomer, I must respectfully take issue with this comment. You call an acquaintance "far right wing" simply because their choice of media is different than yours. You quote a talking point from what others would call "far left media" as truth. Were you as concerned about this in 2009, 2010, 2012, or even 2015 when thousands were detained and children separated from their parents or is it only because the party in power in Washington has changed? Are you not aware of the child trafficking happened within the groups trying to enter our country illegally? I make these points to show that the choice of media one makes can be detrimental to the actual truth.

[justjim]

Are we going into a recession or we just going into a so called slowdown was the original question and point of this Thread. Frankly I don’t have a clue if it’s one or the other. The so called “experts” are just about equally divided on this question. So.....take your pick. What I’m more concerned about is what economists in the past called a real depression. Even with some of the so called “safety nets” we have today, a depression would be something most of us only heard about from our parents or grandparents. Recently I read that 40% of Americans, if they were ask, could not come up with $400 in cash. Millions of Americans live from pay check to pay check and have no savings to fall back on should there be a sudden recession (loss of jobs) or worse a recession that lasts and becomes a real depression. Let’s hope if there is a slowdown that it doesn’t become a recession and the recession lasts long enough to turn into a depression. We Americans have a debt of not millions, not billions but trillions of dollars. Awful thought as we discuss the possibility of slowdown, recession or worse a depression. The deficit is a topic for another Thread but can be problematic if we enter into a serious downturn or recession.

[Nucky]

SLOWDOWN, Nothing more! Move Along!

[Love2Swim]

CNM, I agree. There is so much of a prevailing attitude of “I got mine. Too bad ya don’t got yours.”

I do not understand why there are those who cannot acknowledge that the system does not work like it once did for regular hardworking people.

Remember the old “3-legged stool” for retirement that so many of us are of an age to remember. As I recall, the 3 legs on the stool were Social Security. Pension. Individual investments and savings.

Some of us knew how to make the 401s and 403s work for us while we were still working. Many had the opportunity to tax defer more money because of not having to pay through the nose for health insurance premiums, deductibles, etc. which, now, even those with good jobs have to absorb more of.

Many of us did quite well when selling our houses, especially after the cap gains law changed in the late 90s where we did not have to reinvest primary residence profits in more expensive homes and could leave a closing table with the next house already paid for and a chunk of tax free change in our pockets. (I know that law is still in effect but I think the early Boomers and Beyond were the ones who reaped the most profits from real estate.)

We had a lot of advantages over what the next generation(s) can expect. (I wrote a dissertation about that yesterday, somewhere around here.)

Anyway, Cold, just wanted to say I, too, don’t get how people do not get it.

I agree with you and CNM...:bigbow:

[GrumpyOldMan]

The recession talk is directed at the 2020 election.

The economic indicators being discussed have been defined and generally agreed upon for a long time prior to the current administration.

If they apply, they apply regardless of who is in office. As far as I have read, no one is prediction a recession tomorrow, they are saying the economic indicators that have traditionally preceded a recession are lining up.

Also, if you look at history, there is typically a recession about every ten years - so it is about time.

[Love2Swim]

No. No. No. There you go. (sigh)

Yes. I was a secondary ed public school teacher for a long time, 35 years. Had I not been wired like I am to see people as individuals and to care about them and treat them fairly, I would have been terrible at my job. —Well, I wasn't.

You do not know the whole picture of who I am. I never implied that big business was the devil incarnate. My father worked for big business, as did Mr. Boomer. I also invest in stocks. To make an assumption just because I was a teacher is broad brush painting. (sigh, double sigh)

Like I keep saying, some of the answers to our problems are somewhere in the middle with compromise and discussion. But as long as we parrot and spew without thinking through, the future of our nation is at risk.

So much does not make sense to me. Children ripped from their parents, caged, and nobody seems to notice. Too many seem to feel because those little kids are a different color, they are invisible and do not count.

As parents and educators we know how important those first 5 years of life are. Children need nurturing and love for development. What in the hell are we thinking — hell is the operative word there.

How can we love and protect and teach and nurture our own and dehumanize those children. I cannot make that compute. Maybe you know. As a pre-school teacher, you surely well understand the needs of little ones. I am not attacking you. I truly would like to hear the justification for destroying the lives of innocent, defenseless children.

I asked a far right wing person I know, who adores his children and grandchildren, what he thought about those neglected children, imprisoned by hatred and getting more behind and lost every day. He told me that he had heard nothing about it. He listens to and watches only the extreme right wing media which has changed him. I once respected him. He is now full of venom. (I am so glad he lives far away from us now.) And yet, he sits in a pew every Sunday and convinces himself he is a pillar of Christianity. WWJD, huh?

We have become tribal and/or caught in the mindset of an “Us vs. Them” team sport. Ugly stuff.

(Oh well, that was only the beginning of a tangent about all the things going on around me that I just don’t get. Guess I went rather off topic but it is all connected as we choose who to admire and respect. I assume this post will be deleted. Actually, I could say a whole lot more, but why bother.)

I'm so glad your post was not deleted. Many of us feel the same as you do, and it is sad if people don't realize what is going on. What is sadder still, is those who do see what is happening who turn a blind eye and still call themselves a Christian.

[GrumpyOldMan]

I'm so glad your post was not deleted. Many of us feel the same as you do, and it is sad if people don't realize what is going on. What is sadder still, is those who do see what is happening who turn a blind eye and still call themselves a Christian.

Sadly this is nothing new. You would think we would learn, but instead history keeps repeating itself - in the 1930's we split apart families, deported millions and many of them American citizens:

Mexican Repatriation - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Repatriation)

[Moderator]

It's almost impossible to discuss economic conditions without bringing politics and parties into it. A few of the preceding posts have crossed the line ...if this trend continues, the thread will be closed.

Please focus on economic theories, conditions, and principles and leave politics and elections out of the discussion.

Moderator

[tophcfa]

The question is not will there be an economic slowdown, it is when and how bad will it be? The elephant in the room that no one wants to address is our unsustainable national debt, which has never grown either so large or faster. It is not political since both parties are responsible and no one from either side wants to address it. Pretty soon 100% or countries revenue wii be needed to service the interest on its debt! Just look at Greece or Puerto Rico as examples of what unstanable debt eventually leads to. The bigger the debt gets, the worse things will be when the bubble eventually bursts.

[Kenswing]

:agree: I've thought for a while that the media is talking us into a recession.
And I'm not in the Bubble right now, I'm up north for six months.
There might be something to that.. Today's headline: 34% of economists in survey expect a US recession in 2021

Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession..

Recession coming? 34% of economists expect one in 2021: NABE survey (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/19/recession-coming-economists-expect-one/2049015001/)

Then after all the doom and gloom they sneak this in as the last paragraph..

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

[graciegirl]

There might be something to that.. Today's headline: 34% of economists in survey expect a US recession in 2021

Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession..

Recession coming? 34% of economists expect one in 2021: NABE survey (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/19/recession-coming-economists-expect-one/2049015001/)

Then after all the doom and gloom they sneak this in as the last paragraph..

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

Opinion itself can sway the stock market. There are too many people in this country right now that would rather see a damaged economic situation than a good economic situation because of their attitude and mind set.

What a mess. What a disappointment.

[ColdNoMore]

Snip...>Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession<..Snip


C'mon, you're smart enough to know...it doesn't work that way. :oops:

That's analogous to reading where 40% of people have a favorable view of blankety-blank, then making the huge assumption...that 60% have an 'unfavorable' view of blankety-blank.

When in fact, it might simply be that...30% of that assumed 60% are actually "undecided." :ohdear:

Without reading the choices of answers, at best that type of silly interpretation is deceiving, at worst it is....

And actually, there is a higher number (in one survey earlier), that believe...it may happen even sooner.

Recession Fears (http://thehill.com/policy/finance/457905-one-third-of-economists-expect-recession-survey)

Approximately one-third of economists predict the U.S. will enter a recession in 2020, according to a survey published Monday.

Thirty-eight percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics forecasted the world's largest economy will enter a recession next year, a 4 percentage point decline from a similar survey in February.

Thirty-four percent of economists predicted the next recession will begin in 2021, a 9-point uptick since February.

As for me personally, I have the fervent hope that if things do slow down (and history says it will happen)...it is slow and the least amount of Americans are harmed.

It's also my personal experience, that no sane person 'roots' for an economic downturn/disaster...especially after seeing the havoc & damage of the last one.

[DAVES]

The last recession resulted in several trillions of dollars of lost wealth. Some recovered, some didn't I would say for those that didn't it was significant.

In my case, I lost my 401k, my credit rating, home and wife. 10 years later I have almost recovered most, but not all.

So, yes in most of YOUR lives it may not have been detectable. But for myself and MANY others lives it was very detectable. Politics had NOTHING to do with it, economics did.

"Several trillions of dollars in lost wealth.: If we dare to see truth we are being had. Nothing that is real can simply disappear. We've heard the term trillions so many times that we've a Goering said, you say something often enough and people believe it is truth. A trillion dollars-what is that? In trying to explain it some describe it a freight trains full of 100 dollar bills. I read the interest on the national debt is now 40 billion dollars. Then it hit me that I do not comprehend what one billion is let alone 40 of them.

As to detectable-I regularly quip I shoulda, coulda mighta or hindsight is always 2020. "Politics had noting to do with it."
We hear the FED wants 2% inflation. Another big lie. They have never in history been able to achieve and hold a given rate of inflation. That 2% is a rate of theft. The 10 year treasury last time I looked was paying 1.7%. If, your purchasing power is falling at 2% and the government is paying you 1.7% and charging you income tax on that 1.7% (free of sate and local not fed tax) our country is simply hoodwinking you while they steal from you.

We being normal demand more and more. Our government uses our own money in the form of adding to the debt to buy our votes.

[Topspinmo]

The last recession resulted in several trillions of dollars of lost wealth. Some recovered, some didn't I would say for those that didn't it was significant.

In my case, I lost my 401k, my credit rating, home and wife. 10 years later I have almost recovered most, but not all.

So, yes in most of YOUR lives it may not have been detectable. But for myself and MANY others lives it was very detectable. Politics had NOTHING to do with it, economics did.


Must not been one of the insider’s ? Wall Street is rigged, it takes dive if someone spills quart of oil some where. Just one of the tactics to steal money, sell high and buy low if you are one of The insiders. I seen through the racket 25 years ago and got out and will never invest again.

[Bucco]

Must not been one of the insider’s ? Wall Street is rigged, it takes dive if someone spills quart of oil some where. Just one of the tactics to steal money, sell high and buy low if you are one of The insiders. I seen through the racket 25 years ago and got out and will never invest again.

Yet our government raves about increases and says it represents great success and yesterday blamed the Fed chairman referring to him as "clueless" and the indicators used as "crazy"

Again, does anyone remember press conferences and hard questions and follow ups ?????

[ColdNoMore]

Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession..


And THIS is why facts and research (and the point of my earlier post)...are so important. :oops:

It's not "whether," it's just the year...in question (click here) (http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/next-recession-trump-survey-shows-most-economists-predict-downturn-2021-2019-8-1028456445)

More than 70% of economists think a US recession will strike by the end of 2021

In the survey by the National Association for Business Economics, out Monday, 72% of economists predicted that a recession would occur by the end of 2021. That's up from 67% in February and according to data gleaned from more than 200 respondents.

The new figure combines the 38% of economists who said they expect a recession to strike in 2020 with the 34% who said they see one befalling the US economy in 2021.

So the TRUTH is, that the 34% predicting it happening in 2021 is ADDED to the 38% who think it will happen by 2020 (making the 72%).

Ironically, I missed the fact that the exact same thing...is in the link in post #28. :oops:

What a difference...the TRUTH and FACTS make. :ho:

[GrumpyOldMan]

And THIS is why facts and research (and the point of my earlier post)...are so important. :oops:

It's not "whether," it's just the year...in question (click here) (http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/next-recession-trump-survey-shows-most-economists-predict-downturn-2021-2019-8-1028456445)



So the TRUTH is, that the 34% predicting it happening in 2021 is ADDED to the 38% who think it will happen by 2020 (making the 72%).

What a difference...the TRUTH and FACTS make. :ho:

Also, few if any are laying this at the feet of the current administration, recessions are cyclical and its that time again.

What some are concerned about is the Fed lowering interest rates, and the administration asking for more. When a recession happens, being able to lower interest rates is an important tool to help soften the landing.

[ColdNoMore]

Also, few if any are laying this at the feet of the current administration, recessions are cyclical and its that time again.

What some are concerned about is the Fed lowering interest rates, and the administration asking for more. When a recession happens, being able to lower interest rates is an important tool to help soften the landing.

The exact same thing I mentioned in a post yesterday.

Those weapons that can help soften the blow of a recession (ie: tax cuts/lower interest rates/massive deregulation/etc.) have already been used...keeping this expansion going.

Economic weapons aren't any good...if there's no ammunition for them.

[Bucco]

Also, few if any are laying this at the feet of the current administration, recessions are cyclical and its that time again.

What some are concerned about is the Fed lowering interest rates, and the administration asking for more. When a recession happens, being able to lower interest rates is an important tool to help soften the landing.

Serious question....this trade war has nothing to do with the economic downturn in your opinion.? Do you believe, as our government does that China is writing us checks each time we raise the tariff ? The FED believes that the tariffs have an impact even though American businesses have said over the past year that the tariffs and retaliatory measures have forced them to increase prices, delay investment and cut jobs.

[ColdNoMore]

Serious question....this trade war has nothing to do with the economic downturn in your opinion.? Do you believe, as our government does that China is writing us checks each time we raise the tariff ? The FED believes that the tariffs have an impact even though American businesses have said over the past year that the tariffs and retaliatory measures have forced them to increase prices, delay investment and cut jobs.

Only the economically ignorant (or highly gullible), believe that tariffs are collected as income by a government and the companies paying them (the importer, NOT the seller) simply absorb the extra expense/cost...and doesn't pass it on to the eventual buyer of the product(s). :oops:

The truth about tariffs (Import Here) (http://www.ipi.org/ipi_issues/detail/who-pays-tariffs)

What’s NOT true is that tariffs on goods from China are paid by the Chinese, or that tariffs on goods from Mexico are paid by Mexicans.

When the United States levies a tariff on something, it is the US importer who pays the tariff, not the foreign exporter. A tariff is a border tax on the buyer, not the seller—tariffs make it more expensive for a buyer to import a good into the country.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Serious question....this trade war has nothing to do with the economic downturn in your opinion.? Do you believe, as our government does that China is writing us checks each time we raise the tariff ? The FED believes that the tariffs have an impact even though American businesses have said over the past year that the tariffs and retaliatory measures have forced them to increase prices, delay investment and cut jobs.

Serious answer...I have no idea. If you want to know what I believe? I believe the tariffs are not helping the situation. I do not believe the tariffs are making us money.

But those are my beliefs.

I will leave the analysis to the "experts" that have spent their lives trying to understand global economic policy.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Only the economically ignorant (or highly gullible), believe that tariffs are collected as income by a government and the companies paying them (the importer, NOT the seller) simply absorb the extra expense/cost...and doesn't pass it on to the eventual buyer of the product(s). :oops:

The truth about tariffs (Import Here) (http://www.ipi.org/ipi_issues/detail/who-pays-tariffs)

I do find it interesting how some people always point out that higher wages negotiated by unions (higher cost of doing business) are always passed on to the consumer, but some how higher product/material costs (tariffs) are not passed onto the consumer. Just saying...

And somehow soy bean farmers need a subsidy to reduce the impact of the reduced sales they are seeing, while average Joe consumer is some how not seeing those same impacts and do doesn't need the same relief.

I am sure it makes sense some how.

[ColdNoMore]

For anyone who may have been confused by the misdirection/falseness (whether intentional, or just through a lack of research effort) of Post #28 (and a couple of other ones)...I'll make it real simple.


POKE HERE (http://www.yahoo.com/news/economists-survey-34-expect-us-040446447.html)


74% of economists in survey see US recession by end of 2021


FACTS MATTER. :ho:

[Polar Bear]

I agree that costs (tariffs) get passed on to the consumer. But that means higher costs for the products. Higher costs almost always mean fewer sales. So it seems to me the country providing the product will still see reduced revenue.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Facts do matter and so do reporters and so do sources. Marcy Gordon whose article you linked us to, is not in the business of surveys or has a background in economics. It appears she is a travel writer and a an expert on wine. See here;

marcy gordon, - Bing (https://www.bing.com/search?q=marcy+gordon%2C&form=EDGHPT&qs=PF&cvid=02850fd7645c438c923e458323b5bc1f&refig=bb87c980b6f84f87a7d5f4b5c77a22d2&cc=US&setlang=en-US&elv=AY3%21uAY7tbNNZGZ2yiGNjfNDdnSmO%21UxCmQvr8n6Wq Ls632KEeYdYrh06pG5lDmiEWg8Qa9WRp02GQLAO03rM4D94nY2 N*ysl1e9UxNWmGCg&plvar=0&PC=DCTS)

She is quoting what could be very interesting information if it was handed to me by someone who is expert on such findings. I still say that seeing our good economy tank is a source of joy for you.

I don't usually read yahoo news, but because of this post, I checked it out for myself. Marcie Gordon isn't the one coming up with the data. She is writing ABOUT the data. The data is the actual data. It is factual, no matter who is writing about it.

The facts really are the facts. If some 4th grader wrote about it for her math class, it would still be true.

If one of your pre-school kids pointed to the actual survey results from the actual survey, and said "MOMMY MINE!" the results would be exactly the same.

[Aloha1]

[QUOTE=ColdNoMore;1674409][SIZE="2"]
Source?[QUOTE]

You are quoting a different metric from a different source. My post referenced the gross increase.

[Aloha1]

All this talk about the "Great Seers", Economists, reminds me of the oft quoted comment that "the majority of economists have successfully predicted 10 of the last 6 recessions".

Attitude and the media matter. If the media spews slanted news as it appears to be doing again, attitude gets negative. And when attitude gets negative....

[graciegirl]

I don't usually read yahoo news, but because of this post, I checked it out for myself. Marcie Gordon isn't the one coming up with the data. She is writing ABOUT the data. The data is the actual data. It is factual, no matter who is writing about it.

The facts really are the facts. If some 4th grader wrote about it for her math class, it would still be true.

If one of your pre-school kids pointed to the actual survey results from the actual survey, and said "MOMMY MINE!" the results would be exactly the same.

I am thinking they could have found somebody else to write the article. A nice math major would be good, or even a person with a business education. I am growing so tired of the media and their negative headlines and then something altogether different in the body of the article. And I am tired of people on this forum who are cheering for an economic downturn just to get back at the President who is a bumble mouth granted.. THAT is ugly and very transparent.

But at least the man has accomplished many good things including a robust economy, beefing up the military so we won't be sitting ducks and trying to keep the border secure which is extremely popular from both sides. I think it is safe to say that Americans welcome and applaud all hardworking people with good values and strong family ethics and do not want drug and human trafficking.

According to a MSN poll I read yesterday, 70% of those polled wanted strong borders.

[ColdNoMore]

Back on topic.


Slowdown or Recession?



72%...YES.




:D

[Big O]

Don't you people ever leave the house? It looks like you've spent all day sniping at each other. Will there eventually be a recession? Yes, of course. The fact that 72% of the economists surveyed say yes doesn't mean squat. Could it happen in 2024? Yes. Could it happen next week? Yes. Leave the house. Plant some flowers. Play some golf. Kick a dog. This may save you from the stroke you are heading for.

[Polar Bear]

Don't you people ever leave the house? It looks like you've spent all day sniping at each other. Will there eventually be a recession? Yes, of course. The fact that 72% of the economists surveyed say yes doesn't mean squat. Could it happen in 2024? Yes. Could it happen next week? Yes....
LOL! There ya go!!

The economy is just like the climate...the only thing constant is change. :)

[Topspinmo]

Don't you people ever leave the house? It looks like you've spent all day sniping at each other. Will there eventually be a recession? Yes, of course. The fact that 72% of the economists surveyed say yes doesn't mean squat. Could it happen in 2024? Yes. Could it happen next week? Yes. Leave the house. Plant some flowers. Play some golf. Kick a dog. This may save you from the stroke you are heading for.

some people just have to have the last word.

[Midnight Cowgirl]

But we all still love you:clap2:


barf

[Aloha1]

:bigbow::bigbow:Don't you people ever leave the house? It looks like you've spent all day sniping at each other. Will there eventually be a recession? Yes, of course. The fact that 72% of the economists surveyed say yes doesn't mean squat. Could it happen in 2024? Yes. Could it happen next week? Yes. Leave the house. Plant some flowers. Play some golf. Kick a dog. This may save you from the stroke you are heading for.

:bigbow: :bigbow: