Updates on Tropical Storm Dorian

[TOTV Specialist]

All eyes have been focused on Tropical Storm Dorian, and whether or not Florida lies in its path. As of now, Florida is within the storm’s forecast cone, and the storm is shown off the coast of South Florida around 2 a.m. this Sunday. According to an advisory this morning from the National Hurricane Center, the storm is 1,500 miles from South Florida, with sustained winds of 50 mph, and is moving northwest at 13 mph. Although considered a weaker storm physically, those who experienced damage from previous hurricane seasons are preparing.

“On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday,” Senior Hurricane Specialist John Cangialosi wrote in this morning’s weather advisory.

According to the NHC’s recent update, the storm is forecast to sustain winds over the next five days that are close to, but below the strength of a hurricane. A hurricane is marked by a minimum speed of 74 mph.

How Florida gets affected may depend on how Dorian passes through the high terrain of The Dominican Republic and Haiti, which make up the island of Hispaniola.

Dennis Feltgen, spokesperson for the National Hurricane Center, mentioned on Monday, “It is far too early to determine what impacts to the U.S. in general or South Florida in particular could occur as a result of Dorian. As of right now, residents do not yet need to activate their hurricane plan, but they should make sure they have one."

Dorian is following a late August route common for hurricane season. The storm is moving across the Atlantic into the Caribbean, which is typical during peak hurricane season. Also, the storm is projected to move northwest on Wednesday. This movement is another common aspect for peak season storms. This turn northwest is what could steer the storm towards Florida.

Although it is unclear whether or not The Villages will be impacted, it is still advised to remain prepared. We will monitor the storm and provide updates over the next few days.

The graphic is provided by the NHC, along with a link to their site below.

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204140.shtml?cone)

[maybe]

I have been making a lot of phone calls to various The Villages offices, and another, trying to get a number on how many inches of rain we can handle before the streets start flooding. I know this will vary from area to area, but they still should be able to give us some info, at least as to the highest risk village. One guy who might know, Trey Arnett, who was quoted in Thursday's paper, well, his office said he cannot give out such info without approval of The Villages. And so it goes.

[JoMar]

And when you get that information what will you do with it?

[NotGolfer]

I have been making a lot of phone calls to various The Villages offices, and another, trying to get a number on how many inches of rain we can handle before the streets start flooding. I know this will vary from area to area, but they still should be able to give us some info, at least as to the highest risk village. One guy who might know, Trey Arnett, who was quoted in Thursday's paper, well, his office said he cannot give out such info without approval of The Villages. And so it goes.

It most likely would be speculation anyway..not to be taken as fact. With Irma some area streets flooded temporarily, but think it was mostly due to storm drains being clogged. I was just out with this afternoon's "monsoon" (Friday) and going up towards Southern Trace on Buena Vista, the streets were quite full of rain (more than puddles) as it was coming down heavily. On the way home, it was still raining but not torrentially and all of that had dissapated. T.V. and area weather people do a really good job of keeping us apprised of what's going on. Listen to WVLG as well as other outlets for your information.

[thelegges]

I have been making a lot of phone calls to various The Villages offices, and another, trying to get a number on how many inches of rain we can handle before the streets start flooding. I know this will vary from area to area, but they still should be able to give us some info, at least as to the highest risk village. One guy who might know, Trey Arnett, who was quoted in Thursday's paper, well, his office said he cannot give out such info without approval of The Villages. And so it goes.

The rain goes to the storm drains, then into the ponds. During the last hurricane, our pond water was close to the top of the berm. Our pond was up by 10’. TV knows what they are doing, from the pond it goes to irrigation on the golf courses. So we never had water near our home. But then there were several complaints that all the courses were closed, we have rented since “07”, and bought our first home in 2010. However I do not stress over what could happen.

[njbchbum]

I have been making a lot of phone calls to various The Villages offices, and another, trying to get a number on how many inches of rain we can handle before the streets start flooding. I know this will vary from area to area, but they still should be able to give us some info, at least as to the highest risk village. One guy who might know, Trey Arnett, who was quoted in Thursday's paper, well, his office said he cannot give out such info without approval of The Villages. And so it goes.

As I recall, the only part of the Villages where no one could travel by golf cart was on the historic side because of ponding water at the base of the golf cart bridge. It took a good number of days before the police department was able to arrange for their crossing of 27/441. Homes on Paradise Lake also suffered some encroachment from the pond because of its raised level. And Aloha Ave also had issues which caused some inconsiderate folks to drive their carts across people's properties to get around the high water - leaving considerable ruts in those lawns!

One of the golf cart tunnels also suffered from high water making it impassible - but - I think there was some drainage work done there since then which should mitigate that problem from happening again. Sorry I don't recall which tunnel.

[maybe]

And when you get that information what will you do with it?

It is simple. If TV water engineers say that our pond is at a height at which another 6" of rain will flood the local streets, and 10" will begin flooding houses, and the storm is now predicted to dump another 12", we can decide, based upon information rather than pure guessing, whether we'd rather be stranded in our homes or sheltering elsewhere. If the prediction is another 15", then it would probably be wise to start moving things off the floor as much as possible, and moving your car(s) to higher ground.

Would not everyone prefer to have such information?

[skyking]

It is simple. If TV water engineers say that our pond is at a height at which another 6" of rain will flood the local streets, and 10" will begin flooding houses, and the storm is now predicted to dump another 12", we can decide, based upon information rather than pure guessing, whether we'd rather be stranded in our homes or sheltering elsewhere. If the prediction is another 15", then it would probably be wise to start moving things off the floor as much as possible, and moving your car(s) to higher ground.

Would not everyone prefer to have such information?

Pretend you live in Miami and call their city hall with the same question. See how they answer.

[graciegirl]

It is simple. If TV water engineers say that our pond is at a height at which another 6" of rain will flood the local streets, and 10" will begin flooding houses, and the storm is now predicted to dump another 12", we can decide, based upon information rather than pure guessing, whether we'd rather be stranded in our homes or sheltering elsewhere. If the prediction is another 15", then it would probably be wise to start moving things off the floor as much as possible, and moving your car(s) to higher ground.

Would not everyone prefer to have such information?

Maybe.

Maybe not.

I tend to side with SkyKing.

AND there are not definitive answers to every question.

[jeriteri]

Dorian looks like it will change it's path more up the coast north. That's Great for The Villages. Local news says maybe 40 mph winds here as well.

[Taltarzac725]

Dorian looks like it will change it's path more up the coast north. That's Great for The Villages. Local news says maybe 40 mph winds here as well.

Looks like Jim Cantore may be headed towards the Carolinas. He is in Stuart, FL right now.

[maybe]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think many home owners in Miami are dependent upon how full a neighborhood retention pond is as regarding their likelihood of being flooded.
I am not asking for guarantees on outcome. It is not always easy to make the call, but many areas do inform the public if an evacuation is in order or NOT. Based upon what the paper quoted Arnett as saying, the information is known. They just won't release it to the public.

[NoMoSno]

HURRICANE DORIAN (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145814.shtml?rainqpf#contents)

[Klearhead]

Just relax and my suggestion spend this time with a love one and know the comfort we can bring to each other in times of stress.

[graciegirl]

[QUOTE=maybe;1677584]Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think many home owners in Miami are dependent upon how full a neighborhood retention pond is as regarding their likelihood of being flooded.
I am not asking for guarantees on outcome. It is not always easy to make the call, but many areas do inform the public if an evacuation is in order or NOT. Based upon what the paper quoted Arnett as saying, the information is known. They just won't release it to the public.[/QUOTE:




Maybe. I clicked your screen name and a drop down record of your prior posts is easily seen. It seems that you have voiced similar concerns on this Forum in 2016, 2017, and many this year in 2019.

I think it safe to say that we all are worried that we will drown or fly away or the house could fall on us or those we love when a Hurricane threatens.. Sometimes the answer to some questions, such as how much rain it will take to lower or raise the ponds even with the measures The Villages has in place are in a word; unanswerable. Some factors such as how much moisture is in the soil is variable as to how much rain that part of town has received.

I wish your fears and all fears could be put to rest about this issue but sometimes definitive answers just aren't available.

[JoMar]

It is simple. If TV water engineers say that our pond is at a height at which another 6" of rain will flood the local streets, and 10" will begin flooding houses, and the storm is now predicted to dump another 12", we can decide, based upon information rather than pure guessing, whether we'd rather be stranded in our homes or sheltering elsewhere. If the prediction is another 15", then it would probably be wise to start moving things off the floor as much as possible, and moving your car(s) to higher ground.

Would not everyone prefer to have such information?

Simple? I suspect those number would vary by pond and by street. What may flood your street won't necessarily flood one across the street and your street might impact the one across the street. Your pond may hold x number of gallons and the one across the street y number of gallons and they could be interconnected so one impacts the other....and two hours later that could all change. How nice life would be if 1 + 1= 2 in every situation but life isn't like that. Most is speculation and the more we pressure for specifics the more we get speculation. Accept that and your life might be less stressful.

[retiredguy123]

I think people would respond to hurricanes better if Government officials and the media would tell the truth.

When they say, "mandatory evacuation", they really mean, "voluntary evacuation".
When they say, "looters will be prosecuted", they really mean, "looters will not be prosecuted".
When they say, "if you don't leave now, we will not rescue you", they really mean, "we will try to rescue you, no matter what you do".
The media keeps saying that the beach is a very dangerous place to be, but they always have reporters standing on the "dangerous" beach with a camera.
And, how many times do the weather experts say that this could be the worst storm ever?

Why not just be honest and tell the people the truth?

[Nucky]

I think people would respond to hurricanes better if Government officials and the media would tell the truth.

When they say, "mandatory evacuation", they really mean, "voluntary evacuation".
When they say, "looters will be prosecuted", they really mean, "looters will not be prosecuted".
When they say, "if you don't leave now, we will not rescue you", they really mean, "we will try to rescue you, no matter what you do".
The media keeps saying that the beach is a very dangerous place to be, but they always have reporters standing on the "dangerous" beach with a camera.
And, how many times do the weather experts say that this could be the worst storm ever?

Why not just be honest and tell the people the truth?

I agree with you in full. But the reason the information comes to everyone the way it does is because

MOST CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH! I think I heard that in a movie. :pray:

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

I think people would respond to hurricanes better if Government officials and the media would tell the truth.

When they say, "mandatory evacuation", they really mean, "voluntary evacuation".
When they say, "looters will be prosecuted", they really mean, "looters will not be prosecuted".
When they say, "if you don't leave now, we will not rescue you", they really mean, "we will try to rescue you, no matter what you do".
The media keeps saying that the beach is a very dangerous place to be, but they always have reporters standing on the "dangerous" beach with a camera.
And, how many times do the weather experts say that this could be the worst storm ever?

Why not just be honest and tell the people the truth?

Maybe if government enforced their claims, people would respond better.

Mandatory means - mandatory.
No rescue means - sucks to be you.
Beach is dangerous means - reporter reporting from 4 blocks away.
Looters will be prosecuted means - if we catch you, you're going to jail.

The only thing they really can't enforce is the mandatory evacuation. It's too easy to simply not be home when they barge into your home to forcibly remove you from it, and then go back in when they're gone.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Maybe if government enforced their claims, people would respond better.

Mandatory means - mandatory.
No rescue means - sucks to be you.
Beach is dangerous means - reporter reporting from 4 blocks away.
Looters will be prosecuted means - if we catch you, you're going to jail.

The only thing they really can't enforce is the mandatory evacuation. It's too easy to simply not be home when they barge into your home to forcibly remove you from it, and then go back in when they're gone.

Actually, I don't think that any government agency has the power to force you out of your home if you decide to stay.

I have heard of many people who have decided to ignore a mandatory evacuation and ride out the storm in their home but I have never heard of one of them being arrested or charged with a crime.

[MorTech]

I think people would respond to hurricanes better if Government officials and the media would tell the truth.

When they say, "mandatory evacuation", they really mean, "voluntary evacuation".
When they say, "looters will be prosecuted", they really mean, "looters will not be prosecuted".
When they say, "if you don't leave now, we will not rescue you", they really mean, "we will try to rescue you, no matter what you do".
The media keeps saying that the beach is a very dangerous place to be, but they always have reporters standing on the "dangerous" beach with a camera.
And, how many times do the weather experts say that this could be the worst storm ever?

Why not just be honest and tell the people the truth?

The soul purpose of the Mockingbird Mainstream Media is to bring eyeballs to advertisers whilst propagandizing irrational/emotion-driven mass-man.

Shock-n-Awe propaganda works.

"Dog Bites Man" = No views. Advertisers go away.
"Man Bites Dog" = 1M views. Advertisers happy.

If you want accurate storm tracking, watch what UPS and FedEx say and do. They have real skin in the game.

[maybe]

[QUOTE=maybe;1677584]Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think many home owners in Miami are dependent upon how full a neighborhood retention pond is as regarding their likelihood of being flooded.
I am not asking for guarantees on outcome. It is not always easy to make the call, but many areas do inform the public if an evacuation is in order or NOT. Based upon what the paper quoted Arnett as saying, the information is known. They just won't release it to the public.[/QUOTE:




Maybe. I clicked your screen name and a drop down record of your prior posts is easily seen. It seems that you have voiced similar concerns on this Forum in 2016, 2017, and many this year in 2019.

I think it safe to say that we all are worried that we will drown or fly away or the house could fall on us or those we love when a Hurricane threatens.. Sometimes the answer to some questions, such as how much rain it will take to lower or raise the ponds even with the measures The Villages has in place are in a word; unanswerable. Some factors such as how much moisture is in the soil is variable as to how much rain that part of town has received.

I wish your fears and all fears could be put to rest about this issue but sometimes definitive answers just aren't available.
-----------
Except that Trey Arnett, the "community's utilities engineer", was quoted in the paper, [Aug 29] as stating, "Based on the current predicted rainfall from Hurricane Dorian, The Villages' water management system is in good shape."
Sounds fine, but why can't we even be told what "predicted rainfall" he was referring to?! And if he knows that, logically he must have some idea about at what point we won't be in "good shape". That is all I ask. I doubt I am more in fear of a hurricane than you, but I am unhappy with the fear The Villages management apparently has of admitting at what point flooding would begin to occur.

[graciegirl]

-----------
Except that Trey Arnett, the "community's utilities engineer", was quoted in the paper, [Aug 29] as stating, "Based on the current predicted rainfall from Hurricane Dorian, The Villages' water management system is in good shape."
Sounds fine, but why can't we even be told what "predicted rainfall" he was referring to?! And if he knows that, logically he must have some idea about at what point we won't be in "good shape". That is all I ask. I doubt I am more in fear of a hurricane than you, but I am unhappy with the fear The Villages management apparently has of admitting at what point flooding would begin to occur.

I can tell YOU when I was in fear of flooding, when the weather channel was saying that upwards of 24 inches of rain was possible here where we live, several days ago. We all have the same information on all channels 24-7 and each of us can decide to get out of here anytime it seems dangerous to us. The Villages is not our mother.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Except that Trey Arnett, the "community's utilities engineer", was quoted in the paper, [Aug 29] as stating, "Based on the current predicted rainfall from Hurricane Dorian, The Villages' water management system is in good shape."
Sounds fine, but why can't we even be told what "predicted rainfall" he was referring to?!

Agreed. If a Villages official makes a public statement about his confidence in a system, and claims that his confidence is based on data, it is useful to people who are relying on that confidence, to know the source of the data.

If he had said "..current predicted rainfall from Hurricane Dorian, which according to the NOAA's National Hurricane Center is expected to fall within 10-18 inches in our area...."

That would've given some general idea. Doesn't need to be specific. Just is helpful to know where he's getting his info from. If he got it from fox and friends or morning joe, I'd buy an inflatable raft and call the rabbi for his final blessing. If he got it from an organization that specializes in weather, I'd know to sit tight and trust that all will be well. I'd still make sure I have enough water and stick an extra roll of toilet paper in a ziploc just in case though :)

[rustyp]

/////

[thelegges]

I think people would respond to hurricanes better if Government officials and the media would tell the truth.

When they say, "mandatory evacuation", they really mean, "voluntary evacuation".
When they say, "looters will be prosecuted", they really mean, "looters will not be prosecuted".
When they say, "if you don't leave now, we will not rescue you", they really mean, "we will try to rescue you, no matter what you do".
The media keeps saying that the beach is a very dangerous place to be, but they always have reporters standing on the "dangerous" beach with a camera.
And, how many times do the weather experts say that this could be the worst storm ever?

Why not just be honest and tell the people the truth?

Our oldest home on barrier island, Leo knocked on door, gave them 10 minutes, mandatory evacuation now. Last hurricane could not get past gates for 11 days. Still waiting to return from this hurricane.

[Bucco]

I am not sure what this thread is about.

Again, we blame the media for everything. While the weather channel, can be dramatic, their thrust is to keep us informed of possibilities. They make no decisions for anyone...that is local.

I find no problem with these forecasts. It is the weather, and if it were that predictable, it would always be 100% accurate.

If you decide to rely on some of the preposterous, and extremely dangerous, statements we had, that's your call.

I know what the local folks meant and I know what the "real" forecasters were saying. Why it confuses others is well beyond me.

Used to be we trusted those charged with informing us. If we lose that, we then have a whole lot more problem than hurricanes.