tuccillo
08-27-2019, 11:41 PM
Below is the summary of the latest Dorian Forecast Discussion from The National Hurricane Center (11PM Tuesday). Item #4 is particularly noteworthy as the forecasted tracks are usually better than the forecasted intensity. Tropical storm/hurricane tracks typically respond to the larger scale forcing and errors in the numerical models at 5 days can be substantial. The latest official forecast has landfall along the Florida coast as a Cat 1 hurricane on Sunday evening but the "cone" of possibilities extends from Miami to Savannah, GA. The last 3 cycles of the NWS Global Model have been taking Dorian further and further to the north with the latest cycle (00Z Wed initial time) having landfall in North Carolina. The latest cycle of the ECMWF Global Model (12Z Tues initial time) takes Dorian through central Florida and into the Gulf. Still early to have a handle on things.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.
3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.
4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.
3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.
4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance.