Real Estate Mkt / Coronavirus

[N44125]

What do you think? Will the Coronavirus have an adverse affect on the Real Estate market? Will sales go down? Will prices be depressed?

Just curious........

[patfla06]

I would say yes to both.
The stock market has taken a huge hit and with no end in sight.

[vintageogauge]

Sales will slow down due to people not traveling, prices will remain stable unless this goes on for a very long time.

[karostay]

Developer will reduce new home prices to reduce over build inventory and the domino effect will follow

[tophcfa]

What do you think? Will the Coronavirus have an adverse affect on the Real Estate market? Will sales go down? Will prices be depressed?

Just curious........

I have been thinking about this also. I am guessing the Villages Developers are starting to get more than a little bit nervous about this. Think about it, let’s go all in on doubling the size of the Villages, buy lots of land and start a massive expansion. Why not, the retiring baby boomers are experiencing rapid growth in their retirement accounts from the prolonged bull stock market and are incredibly optimistic about their prospects. And many of them also have juicy defined benefit pension plans. These boomers will have no problem paying a premium for our active lifestyle.

Now, all of a sudden, those once opportunistic potential homebuyers are watching their retirement dreams evaporate into thin air, and if they have a clue, should also be very worried about the viability of their defined benefit pension plans. And many may now be reconsidereing when they can afford to retire, no less buy a second home. Not a good time to mortgage our future on a dream retirement home that we can snowbird to until we someday become frogs. I suspect many future frogs will be doing their croaking up north.

[manaboutown]

Wish I owned a cemetery in which I could raise the price of the lots I had to sell.

[tophcfa]

Wish I owned a cemetery in which I could raise the price of the lots I had to sell.

Better to own a whatever it is that does cremations. That seems to be the way things are going these days.

[manaboutown]

Better to own a whatever it is that does cremations. That seems to be the way things are going these days.

A crematorium? No thanks.

[skarra]

Absolutely yes.

I was in that situation a few weeks back with a pending sale, and now I have delayed my move as I wait to see what happens to real estate prices all round. I'd also much rather put my money to work in the stock market given the bargains that are out there now.

[Texased]

Absolutely yes.

I was in that situation a few weeks back with a pending sale, and now I have delayed my move as I wait to see what happens to real estate prices all round. I'd also much rather put my money to work in the stock market given the bargains that are out there now.

I agree that home sales will slow drastically, and not only real estate but luxury items such as boats, RV's, and even automobiles to an extent. The coronavirus is definitely a factor but also due to the stock market tanking. People who are invested in the stock market have lost wealth, if even on paper until they sell, and this is a huge factor.

I have been re-allocating my investments by selling bonds and buying stock. There are bargains to be had if one has the timeframe to wait for the market to come back, which it will.

[MandoMan]

There are always a lot of homes for sale at The Villages and lots being purchased. However, I’m expecting a sudden glut of hundreds more than usual being sold by estates and children. This means more buyers will be bidding below the asking price and getting it. But if you’ve lived in TV for ten years, the selling price of your home has probably doubled.

[Dlbonivich]

There was a shortage of inventory across Florida. 3.3 million short. Very low inventories here. People still want to come. May have choices short term, but I believe it will rebound. Younger people want to buy homes in family neighborhoods, so I believe baby boomers will have opportunities to sell their homesteads and come here.

[Chatbrat]

Absolutely, if the virus hits TV, and there are lots of deaths--heirs will be unloading the properties; especially if they have not intention of moving here and the big IF, who would want to live in a house that a person died from Coronavirus

[Drdoug49]

There is the wealth effect of the stock market,when they look at their portfolio and see it has shrunk by a third, they will no longer have the confidence to buy a second or retirement home. Also if this pandemic boomarangs, and all group activities are suspended again, why buy in TV. Other areas will become more attractive, prices will drop here as well as we enter a deep recession

[txfan]

I just bought a lot and they sure don’t go down. I guess I can watch inventory prices and switch to one of those, if desired!

[Byte1]

Absolutely, if the virus hits TV, and there are lots of deaths--heirs will be unloading the properties; especially if they have not intention of moving here and the big IF, who would want to live in a house that a person died from Coronavirus

Depends on the price of such house. I am sure that there are a lot of homes in The Villages where someone has died. A good deal is still a good deal.

[dewilson58]

Like a speed bump.

[Drdoug49]

Just saw infections disease expert on squawk box, this could be the new normal for the next 18months until we get a vaccine. if this is the case, demand for TV houses will drop off a cliff and prices accordingly

[Chatbrat]

Another aspect, this is a maximum density community, a lot of houses are right on top of each other (akin to Levittown, right after the war)--the transmission of the disease once its starts will be rampant--especially for those living in high rise senior housing

Hope I'm wrong it won't be pretty--real estate value should be your last worry

[Bay Kid]

Interest rates will be low, a good time to buy. Some people made lots of money selling off from the stock market. Not much else to do so go find that dream home.

[72lions]

Let me suggest a different scenario. Building of new homes will slow slightly but will still be more significant than other communities. Prices will remain stable. With mortgage rates at historic lows, some will partially finance their purchases which isn't done much today. The market will rebound. It is currently where it was 3 years ago and if you don't have to liquidate, there are many opportunities out there. During the last recession, the sky did not fall in The Villages.

[Schmuckerron]

[QUOTE=N44125;1728530]What do you think? Will the Coronavirus have an adverse affect on the Real Estate market? Will sales go down? Will prices be depressed?

Just curious....what ever happens will be temporary.

[twoplanekid]

This Iris located across the street from me in Lake Deaton was listed at around $564,000 a month ago to then drop a little several weeks ago. Now it's listed for $499,000. It's dropping into the good deal range??

Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/S218.57?new&preowned&homesites&lng=-81.99227488690232&lat=28.839114603881214&lvl=4)

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Better to own a whatever it is that does cremations. That seems to be the way things are going these days.

Let's keep up with the times: Washington to allow human composting to turn dead bodies into soil - Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-state-human-compost-bodies-into-soil-2019-5)

[karostay]

I just bought a lot and they sure don’t go down. I guess I can watch inventory prices and switch to one of those, if desired!

You really don't buy a lot here you just reserve a space for potential build with in
1 year or it reverts back to the developer

[karostay]

Interest rates will be low, a good time to buy. Some people made lots of money selling off from the stock market. Not much else to do so go find that dream home.

No matter how low interest rates go you still need green backs to pay the mortgage. Many new or pending retires nest eggs have dropped by 30% or more .
No matter how fast this pandemic passes recovery will likely be slow

[guitarguy]

With a 15 year morgage around 2.75 percent why tap investments to pay for a house?
Even if you sold your house up north to migrate to FL, a morgage at these rates is worth considering. You can establish a nice emergency fund very quickly. Marketing people will be making buyers aware of this

[Drdoug49]

“There’s never been a better time to buy”. Seems like some people on this forum are realtors. We are in a different paradigm, a pandemic that may come back after this summer. A vaccine is 18 months away What if TV becomes an epicenter of death, are people socially distancing here as trump says to
I hope Iam wrong, but housing prices could collapse here with our residents the majority of whom are virus deniers

[rustyp]

Interest rates will be low, a good time to buy. Some people made lots of money selling off from the stock market. Not much else to do so go find that dream home.

Interest rates are going to be low for quite some time. Why would you run out now and buy a house Vs waiting to see what will happen to the market after this virus thing. House prices have not moved down or at least not drastically in the last month. There will certainly not be a demand for prices to rise in the near term future given the market loses and investors decreased ability to buy. Buying a house two months from now is almost guaranteed to be cheaper than today.

[cj740@comcast.net]

Better to own a whatever it is that does cremations. That seems to be the way things are going these days.

I believe that is called a crematorium.

[jimlambert]

Throw in a case of toilet paper if you are selling your home! Sale guaranteed!

[davem4616]

The economic impact of closing everything down / wages lost / etc. will stretch out for more than a few quarters, the negative impact will ultimately decline like 'a dragon's tail'...things will return to what will be "the new normal'

Back in 2008 when the stock market tanked it took awhile for many things to come back to where they were previously...albeit some never did, or came back with a different model

One huge difference is that the 2008 crisis didn't put so many people out of work like we're seeing now....it was more of a hit to our accumulated wealth

regarding the impact on R/E:

In 2008 we had a second home down in Ft Lauderdale in a 55+ community...just before the stock market tanked in 2008 the house across the street from us (which was not on the canal) sold for $215K....the new owners are still underwater...(but that community was built in the late 60's/early 70's...).

I did pay close attention to the prices of new construction in the Broward/Palm Beach counties subsequent to 2008 for a number of years...New construction sales and development seemed to slow down, but they pretty much held the prices offered by the developers in the 55+ communities up and down the eastern FL coast in those two counties

Homes will still appreciate in TV over time...it's the life style, not the quality of the homes that sells TV....the expansion may slow down and the builder may not be building as many spec houses for awhile

[Rwirish]

I think the real estate market will go “south.”

[Yukon33]

I think the stock market will be back to 29,000 by November.

[Drdoug49]

TV. Sells a lifestyle, if most group activities are closed because of a pandemic, that’s a negative. If the virus returns in the fall, and government furthers the shutdown, the prices could stay depressed for years

[David Fletcher]

There is only one correct answer!!

Nobody knows for sure.

When was the last consumer lead recession? Hardest to get out of.

No time to own three boats or three golf carts!!!

[Barborv]

Actually, its a good time to buy. The rates have dropped on Mortgages. As this COVID 19 is a major concern, and I am NO WAY down playing it, We just need to be mindful, and follow directions from the CDC . Does anyone remember during the last administration the Swine Flu? Well, that killed over 1,000 Americans, including the young. But I don't remember the big Hype over the news, etc. This will pass, like anything else in history, and I do believe things will get back to normal.
BE WELL AND STAY SAFE!!

[Greyson]

A crematorium? No thanks.
You could make pizzas in the slow times

[Craig Vernon]

I have watched the home values in TV for a few years the rise has been incredible. I have visited three times and long to retire where many of you are. If home values fall then it will be a buying opportunity for my wife and I. Few years from retirement, income is stable and we have time to wait for the IRA/401k to come back. There have been many discussions about home values, taxes and cost of living in TV but most of you are retired and could care less. What a great place to be. Things will get back to normal in time for now stay safe and well....

[Meboko]

Really?

[Meboko]

Wish I owned a cemetery in which I could raise the price of the lots I had to sell.
Really?

[capecoralbill]

This Iris located across the street from me in Lake Deaton was listed at around $564,000 a month ago to then drop a little several weeks ago. Now it's listed for $499,000.[/url]

The owner bought it for 375 000 in May of 2015. This house has streets in the front yard, and backyard. And the smallest pool I have ever seen.

Sumter County Property Appraiser (http://www.sumterpa.com/GIS/)

[Kilmacowen]

The owner bought it for 375 000 in May of 2015. This house has streets in the front yard, and backyard. And the smallest pool I have ever seen.

Sumter County Property Appraiser (http://www.sumterpa.com/GIS/)

But how much in upgrades were put in? New houses are just basic and in need of several $$ in upgrades. Add in everything including realtor and closing fees and they probably will brake even.

[vintageogauge]

This Iris located across the street from me in Lake Deaton was listed at around $564,000 a month ago to then drop a little several weeks ago. Now it's listed for $499,000. It's dropping into the good deal range??

Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/S218.57?new&preowned&homesites&lng=-81.99227488690232&lat=28.839114603881214&lvl=4)

That is all it's worth if that. We had an Iris across the street from us sell in January before the virus for $535,000 with a full pool and on water rather than backing to a street.

[vintageogauge]

No matter how low interest rates go you still need green backs to pay the mortgage. Many new or pending retires nest eggs have dropped by 30% or more .
No matter how fast this pandemic passes recovery will likely be slow

Only if they have all their eggs in one basket. If their portfolio is 1/3 in the market they only lost 10% or so of their nest egg.

[vintageogauge]

There are about 10,000 people turning 65 every day and TV only needs to sell homes to 7 of them to maintain their current level of sales. Keep an eye on Bradford if they put them up as fast as Chitty Chatty they are not concerned.

[retiredguy123]

That is all it's worth if that. We had an Iris across the street from us sell in January before the virus for $535,000 with a full pool and on water rather than backing to a street.
I agree. Most pre-owned houses I have viewed are overpriced. A decline in values will be a good thing.

[rustyp]

Only if they have all their eggs in one basket. If their portfolio is 1/3 in the market they only lost 10% or so of their nest egg.

When the market was straight lining up all my acquaintances were High Fiving and it wasn't 30% in. But all of a sudden the silence is deafening. I'll give you free advice from my broker who I never listen too - actually he thinks he is my broker. Don't pull out - it will pass. Of course he doesn't make a dime if my money is not his firm.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Thankfully, my lot was very low, $12K, and then we built a Begonia, with a little stretch, but I couldn't have done this house without the low plot value. So I do believe that the expensive lots will not move and will be reduced. The house has a predetermined margin, not idea what it is, so the plot can be a large profit maker. I suspect that the lots will sit for a while and then get reduced, while the developer slows progress by finishing what has been started on spec. But that is just south of 466.

What may be more impactful is the potential increase in mortality rate north of 466, (not desirable, just predictive) such that beneficiaries who now cant afford to move into parent's house, will opt for a quick sale. Or they can sell their working home, and move into their parent's home for a low cost. Either way, there is a least one house for sale for every house which loses it owners. So the three major model inputs would be increase in mortality rate increasing existing houses for sale and percent going directly to market and the reduction in Fair Market Value to move the house, slowing / reducing new house sales and or profitability.

Friends of ours have been looking for a year or so, waiting for a steal of an existing house. Then during this winter, they were convinced that the best deal is a custom house, now, they will be back to looking for a steal. No worries, they are mostly dreamers.

but I also think that the developer will stop building spec houses, and move back to custom designers, commit to them by buying the plot, and let the market come back to them.

sportsguy musings

[capecoralbill]

Is it possible that if sales slow, the Developer might have time to look into the Sinkhole and Dry Lake problem in the Villages. I'm surprised anyone would by a house from the D if they knew the extent of the Sinkhole and Dry Lakes problems. I live near those condemned houses, and I CANNOT purchase a meaningful 'sinkhole' insurance policy.

Google the following for examples:
"sinkhole at 733 Winifred Way" and "sinkhole at 17092 McLawren Terrace" and "sinkhole at 2536 Botello Ave",
the last one is for sale now: 2536 BOTELLO AVE
Ranch Home:Stetson III
3 bed •2 bath •1575 sqft
Village Alhambra
$234,900
VLS#229297
there are more, but you get the idea, watch out for those waterfront views.
I heard there is a dry lake in Fenney, but that the D has attempted to fix it.

[DARFAP]

This is the least of anyone's worries at this point

[karostay]

Throw in a case of toilet paper if you are selling your home! Sale guaranteed!

For limited time only will include no extra cost up to a 12 month supply of toilet paper it will be 1 360 sheet roll..
Villages marketing like when Katie Bells was promoted as your restaurant

[stan the man]

Don't worry your children may get the same price you pay for it 15 years from now

[Kerry Azz]

I have watched the home values in TV for a few years the rise has been incredible. I have visited three times and long to retire where many of you are. If home values fall then it will be a buying opportunity for my wife and I. Few years from retirement, income is stable and we have time to wait for the IRA/401k to come back. There have been many discussions about home values, taxes and cost of living in TV but most of you are retired and could care less. What a great place to be. Things will get back to normal in time for now stay safe and well....

I like your attitude Craig, the villages is a marvelous place to retire to. Cost of living here is low and the neighbors are fantastic my life in retirement couldn’t be better. :welcome:

[gadaboutgal]

[QUOTE=
I heard there is a dry lake in Fenney, but that the D has attempted to fix it.[/QUOTE]
The so called dry lakes throughout The Villages were never really lakes. They were dug to act as drainage ditches when all the land was leveled for homes. There are a few "real" lakes within TV which you can see on earlier maps, i.e. Lake Spencer in Glenbrook.

[asianthree]

There are always a lot of homes for sale at The Villages and lots being purchased. However, I’m expecting a sudden glut of hundreds more than usual being sold by estates and children. This means more buyers will be bidding below the asking price and getting it. But if you’ve lived in TV for ten years, the selling price of your home has probably doubled.

People die here everyday, it takes a year or better to settle estates. Our preowned was estate with one child, by the time house could go on the market it was 11 months. That was 4 years ago.