Where is the Bottom to Dow Jones?

[2BNTV]

I was wondering if anyone has any insight to where Dow Jones bottom will be? Does anyone know?

My investment broker doesn't really know but is saying a loss of 35% is bottom. As usual, investment brokers are saying that long term investors should stay calm and not miss the upswing.

As of yesterday, the market was 1400 points above when Trump took office, (please, no political commentary).

I am staying put as I missed the downturn and don't want to miss the upswing. I timed the last downswing during last market upheaval and it turned out great.

[retiredguy123]

17,650

[DeanFL]

16,405

We should do a poll, winner gets...nothing.

[rustyp]

15660

[dewilson58]

I was wondering if anyone has any insight to where Dow Jones bottom will be? Does anyone know?




No.

[Fishers2tall]

10,000

[karostay]

That's the million dollar question

[Villageswimmer]

I think OP was being facetious.

[Nucky]

16,405

We should do a poll, winner gets...nothing.

16,406 From years of watching the Price Is Right! :1rotfl:

[Ashley from UK]

I was wondering if anyone has any insight to where Dow Jones bottom will be? Does anyone know?

My investment broker doesn't really know but is saying a loss of 35% is bottom. As usual, investment brokers are saying that long term investors should stay calm and not miss the upswing.

As of yesterday, the market was 1400 points above when Trump took office, (please, no political commentary).

I am staying put as I missed the downturn and don't want to miss the upswing. I timed the last downswing during last market upheaval and it turned out great.
Its down there with the GBP:USD FX.

2 weeks ago we put down our 20% deposit. Since then as a result of FX our home has risen $45k, and if it hits £1:$1 our hone will cost us $100k more...

So sell $ now at 1.15 and buy them back later when the return to 1.29.... We hope........god we hope it returns in the next 12 weeks

[Fredman]

I am not selling in fact i am considering converting my bonds into equities.

[tophcfa]

Obviously no one knows, but around 11,800 would represent a 60% sell off from the highs and would be about what happened during the Great Depression. I am not saying that’s what will happen, but that’s probably an absolute worst case scenario.

[ColdNoMore]

My WAG is the absolute bottom will end up being around 17,500, but that will be in about a month from now...after the peak of cases/deaths is reached.

I'm also guessing, that because of the emergency stimulus' that are being reviewed/enacted, it will yo-yo in the next few weeks and even get back up to around +-22,000...before that April bottom is reached.

Since it's all a guess anyway, and my kids will eventually be the beneficiaries of the good/bad choices I've made, it will be interesting to revisit this thread...around tax time. :ho:

I'm just glad now that I decided not to be greedy around Christmas of 2018 when it dropped, then rose back to just below 26,000...and moved about 75% of my investments into mostly cash, cash equivalents and treasuries.

Of course, the other 25% predicated by FOMO...has taken a butt kickin'. :(

[manaboutown]

Only The Shadow knows...

[Rwirish]

Yes we all know where the bottom is but we are not sharing.

[jimbo2012]

If U wait for the bottom you'll likely miss it, U can do several small buys on the way down
at the mini dips.
Always down averaging along the way.

Last time I took advice of a broker was '86 '87 told me buying a margin will make a lot of $$
Don't ask how that worked out :ohdear:

[Cranford61]

17,650the bottom of the DJA was yesterday because I cashed out all my stocks at the opening bell. Voila, Dow tanks early so I lost even more, and ended up +188. I did this as a public service because historically, I move the markets. Buy and the markets fall, sell and the markets rise. No applause please.

[collie1228]

The mainstream media likes to quote the Dow, as they are generally lazy and don't have to do any real reporting and it's easy. The real question is not when the Dow will rebound, but what great stocks are now on sale. For instance, Apple Computer, one of the best performing tech stocks ever, is now on sale at $247 a share, down from about $330 just a month ago. Yes, it may go down some more in the near future, but does anyone really believe that it's heyday is over? Not me. I'm dollar cost averaging my way back into this market, and Apple is on the top of my list.

[Eg_cruz]

Unfortunately nobody really knows so hang tight it will get better

[Dcurrie911]

I’m predicting two lows. The first will be directly related to the virus which I think will bottom at about 17500. The markets will start to recover but then the economic impacts will surface maybe 1-2 qtrs later sending the market down again. 13000-15000 depending on how long and how much more is shut down. IMHO

[noslices1]

As low as it is right now, it’s probably a good time to buy, but only stocks that are guaranteed not to go BK. The futures are up 600 points already today, but I believe it will be up a bunch by fall.

[Marykess1802]

16,405

We should do a poll, winner gets...nothing.
Winner gets...toilet paper 🧻 I have a roll I can spare for such a valuable endeavor LOL

[jimbo2012]

If they don't have strong balance sheets they may not survive.

the weak ones may borrow $$ but when they need to pay it back............:pray:

[bragones]

Dow will bottom when COVID19 is demonstrably under control. Negative economic impact that will follow is likely already factored into today's depressed value.

[dcurrie947]

10,000
Love your greyhound! We have an IG!

[bigeasy]

If 1.5 trillion in aid don't stop the fall-there is no bottom.

[jimbo2012]

if it don't they'll get more

[DeanFL]

kinda on topic. I did not want to miss this 'downturn'. I have had a relatively large (for me) sum of liquid $$$ in Synchrony Bank, for emergencies, easy to access $$$ if cash if required. A week ago I decided getting (now) 1.8% was unwise considering the potential of great returns in the Market, eventually.

Contacted my investment guy - we invested 30% of that cash into American funds, Growth Fund and Small Cap World Fund. Both should provide a great return WHEN the Market makes the vertical move. Bought when the Dow was about 20,600. I will probably do the same $$$ move next week.

Little doubt the US Market will skyrocket later this year (if not earlier) - we may be back at 29,000 Dow in a year.

It's 'my kid's' money anyway... you know...

[DeanFL]

kinda on topic. I did not want to miss this 'downturn'. I have had a relatively large (for me) sum of liquid $$$ in Synchrony Bank, for emergencies, easy to access $$$ if cash if required. A week ago I decided getting (now) 1.8% was unwise considering the potential of great returns in the Market, eventually.

Contacted my investment guy - we invested 30% of that cash into American funds, Growth Fund and Small Cap World Fund. Both should provide a great return WHEN the Market makes the vertical move. Bought when the Dow was about 20,600. I will probably do the same $$$ move next week.

Little doubt the US Market will skyrocket later this year (if not earlier) - we may be back at 29,000 Dow in a year.

It's 'my kid's' money anyway... you know...

[Michael Charles]

16,405

We should do a poll, winner gets...nothing.

Winner should get a 2 month supply of TP and hand sanitizer!!

[Satjr35031]

Remember it took 108 years to get to 10,000 and only twenty days to lose 10,000

[dougawhite]

the bottom of the DJA was yesterday because I cashed out all my stocks at the opening bell. Voila, Dow tanks early so I lost even more, and ended up +188. I did this as a public service because historically, I move the markets. Buy and the markets fall, sell and the markets rise. No applause please.

That's my line buy when I sell, sell when I buy, you'll be rich. I went to cash at 20K. I'll probably get back in late summer at the same point on its way back up.

[dadoiron]

0 is the true bottom but it will never get there.

[MandoMan]

If I had pulled out all my money a month ago, I would put it all back into the same mutual funds now. I’m kicking myself that I didn’t.

[Lisa99]

We'll know well after it's actually hit bottom, starts coming back up and stays up.

I rebalance quarterly so will be buying more index fund equities soon to get my AA back into balance.

[jnafix]

Thank you Villagers for sharing your wisdom. This was one of the best posts that I have yet to read.

[Scudder]

I was wondering if anyone has any insight to where Dow Jones bottom will be? Does anyone know?

My investment broker doesn't really know but is saying a loss of 35% is bottom. As usual, investment brokers are saying that long term investors should stay calm and not miss the upswing.

As of yesterday, the market was 1400 points above when Trump took office, (please, no political commentary).

I am staying put as I missed the downturn and don't want to miss the upswing. I timed the last downswing during last market upheaval and it turned out great.

The Dow is just a barometer of a few leading stocks. Worry about your own stock holdings which could have an entirely different trajectory.

[jimbo2012]

The Dow is just a barometer of a few leading stocks. Worry about your own stock holdings which could have an entirely different trajectory.

If any of you watch Cramer at 6 Mad Money

That's exactly what he says.

Also doesn't like funds etf's etc.

[prntxpresn]

Buy gold & silver commodities. SDBuillion.com

[retiredguy123]

The reason why it is very difficult to time the bottom of the market is that, when it hits bottom, the event that caused stocks to go down is already over. The stock market reacts to anticipated future events that may or may not occur. If the event doesn't occur, then the market goes back up. If the event does occur, then it is too late to sell your stocks. Often, when a recession hits, the stock market is already on the way up because the market anticipated the recession in advance and has already bottomed out. So, you have to be able to predict the future to time the stock market.

[bebby17]

your broker does not want u to get out cause he doesnt make any money if u do
technical annalists say 1800 but who knows

[dewilson58]

The Dow is just a barometer of a few leading stocks. Worry about your own stock holdings which could have an entirely different trajectory.




Media is the only DOW watcher.

[DON10E]

I was wondering if anyone has any insight to where Dow Jones bottom will be? Does anyone know?

My investment broker doesn't really know but is saying a loss of 35% is bottom. As usual, investment brokers are saying that long term investors should stay calm and not miss the upswing.

As of yesterday, the market was 1400 points above when Trump took office, (please, no political commentary).

I am staying put as I missed the downturn and don't want to miss the upswing. I timed the last downswing during last market upheaval and it turned out great.

The following is my opinion only. Consult your professional investment advisor before taking any actions.

I assume virtually nobody in the villages has all of their money in stocks. A moderate allocation would be 60/40 stocks/bonds.

Before this disruption, most people should have had 3-6 months of expenses in cash. Money they may need in the next 1-3 years can be invested conservatively (maybe 20% stocks). Money they won’t need until 4-7 years can be moderately invested (40% stocks?). Money not needed for 8+ years can be invested aggressively 80-100% stocks). That’s before the disruption. If you had all of your money in stocks, this post is not for you.

-if you don’t need income from your investment accounts you should be able to wait indefinitely for a recovery.

THIS PART IS VERY IMPORTANT:

-If you are drawing income each month or year, consider drawing only from the bonds in your account. That will give the stock portion time to recover while your cash flow is maintained. With even just 40% in bonds you could have 8 or more years before you have to touch the stocks.

If you are taking Required Minimum Distributions from your IRA that you don’t need, simply reinvest the net withdrawal after tax in a non-IRA account, allocated the same way your IRA is allocated. When the recovery comes your non-IRA money will recover, too.

Before you act on any of this, consult your professional investment advisor. Your mileage may vary.

Subscribe to Netflix and wait it out. This too will pass.

[jfkilduff]

We will end up owing the DJIA money. Best assumption is investors are starting to move their money toward MAYBE medical or MAYBE MILITARY have to wait a while to c which one comes out of this on top

[Skunky1]

When you find yourself living underneath a 2 million dollar bridge you know the DOW bottomed out.

[wyealbert]

That's the million dollar question

Try TRILLION dollar.

[Topspinmo]

Wall Street big Ponzi scheme ran by billionaires. They control the market. At first hint of crisis they sell off which drive the markets way down, after all the peons have panic and lost most of they investments, the insiders Billionaire with Hugh cash buy in when its low enough for them to make Hugh profit. Now that the real players have brought back in it drives the market up. Now they wait for the next fabricated crisis. The smart little guy figures this out and sells off while market high before the insiders sell off And cause crash. You’re stock broker only cares about his fees that they suck off you’re Investment could care less if you make any money but keep you suckered in for his fee’s.

[valuemkt]

It can;t go below zero unless you trade on margin.

[DougandLaddi]

With all the negative news of getting ready for a couple of real bad weeks coming, you would of thought the DOW would be in a futures nose dive this morning but it is up over $700 so just maybe !! I normally would less likely to think this way but the market will be the first one to know.

[retiredguy123]

With all the negative news of getting ready for a couple of real bad weeks coming, you would of thought the DOW would be in a futures nose dive this morning but it is up over $700 so just maybe !! I normally would less likely to think this way but the market will be the first one to know.
The stock market has already "factored in" the bad weeks coming. That is the way it works, and why it is so difficult to time the market.

[collie1228]

Trying to time the market bottom is a fool's errand. From the famous words of one of the most esteemed investors in history, Warren Buffett, to be a successful investor, “simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful (Mar 6, 2020).” Stocks are on sale right now, and there is nothing wrong with investing during a crisis. It will end at some point, and stocks will rise in price. It may be today, it might be next year, but stocks will rise again.

[Two Bills]

Trying to time the market bottom is a fool's errand. From the famous words of one of the most esteemed investors in history, Warren Buffett, to be a successful investor, “simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful (Mar 6, 2020).” Stocks are on sale right now, and there is nothing wrong with investing during a crisis. It will end at some point, and stocks will rise in price. It may be today, it might be next year, but stocks will rise again.

Absolutely, and with the prospect of some restrictions being lifted shortly, now may be the time to buy.
What to buy I haven't a clue.
Personally, went into cash bonds when retired to avoid this rollercoaster stuff.
However if I was still in the game, I would punt very soon.
Fiirst bit of goverment 'good news' and it will be 'Wacky Races' time.
JMO.:ho:

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

I only know about my own stocks. One, Lane Bryant, dissolved years ago, and my stock certificate is just a piece of nostalgia now, with no value at all.

I traded in my Israel bonds a decade after they matured, so I got a net profit from that.

Water Company was bought out by another company, which bought out all shareholders for pennies over the most it had ever traded for. So while I would've liked to remain invested another decade, I got to enjoy quarterly dividend checks for many many years, and I got the initial investment of $500 plus another $10,000 back.

Intel has been through a roller coaster since I got my first 10 shares. Doubled and split, then doubled again and tanked, then went up and down again, recession, dot-com bubble and bust, tech innovations, the current administration's back and forth against Huwei, and now the COVID-19 situation. After all is said and done, my stock is hovering near $60/share. That's pretty much where it's been for the past couple of years. It's also around $20/share more than it had been, except for an enormous spike around 2000/2001.

[skyking]

I’m predicting two lows. The first will be directly related to the virus which I think will bottom at about 17500. The markets will start to recover but then the economic impacts will surface maybe 1-2 qtrs later sending the market down again. 13000-15000 depending on how long and how much more is shut down. IMHO

April 14

Dow 23949 +2.39%
NASDAQ 8515 +3.95%
S&P 2846 +3.06%

[ColdNoMore]

As of yesterday, the DOW closed at 24,242.49.

After watching it run up on Thursday, but not stay, I decided to put everything into a fixed fund that guarantees only 3.5%.

Ironically, since I did it online after closing on Thursday it didn't take effect until after Friday's close so I actually saw an increase...over what I thought I had "locked in."

I'm very happy with what I've made since 2009 after a very steady and substantial rise after the Great Recession, but am afraid that when the realization that the massive stimulus currently being sent out will still result in thousands of businesses going under...it's going to be really ugly in a few months.

While I hope I'm wrong, I wouldn't be surprised to see the DJIA down in the 14,000-15,000 range by June.

And if I'm wrong and miss out...so be it.

The only thing I know for a fact regarding my investments is that I'm not going to worry about them...for a while. :shrug:

[DON10E]

Absolutely, and with the prospect of some restrictions being lifted shortly, now may be the time to buy.
What to buy I haven't a clue.
Personally, went into cash bonds when retired to avoid this rollercoaster stuff.
However if I was still in the game, I would punt very soon.
Fiirst bit of goverment 'good news' and it will be 'Wacky Races' time.
JMO.:ho:

Consider being very careful about holding bond funds. The ten year treasury bond is selling close to .6%. Not 6% but point-6 %. There's not a lot of room to drop from here. If rates go up the value of bond funds will drop. A rate increase from .6 to 1.2 could cause a 50% drop in the value of bond funds, depending on the bond maturities. Rates have never been lower in our lifetimes (well, mine anyway).

You said you're in cash bonds. Cash is an asset class and bonds are an asset class, but cash bonds is not an asset class, so decide how much of this post actually applies to you. Be careful. Also, feel free to ignore anything I say.

Good luck. Wash your hands!
😄

[tophcfa]

We will never know where the real bottom of the market is unless the Fed stops artificially supporting it by pumping unprecidented amounts of liquidity into it. A real market is supported by underlying economic fundamentals, not the Fed. There seems to be a very large disconnect between Main St. and Wall St.

[tophcfa]

Consider being very careful about holding bond funds. The ten year treasury bond is selling close to .6%. Not 6% but point-6 %. There's not a lot of room to drop from here. If rates go up the value of bond funds will drop. A rate increase from .6 to 1.2 could cause a 50% drop in the value of bond funds, depending on the bond maturities. Rates have never been lower in our lifetimes (well, mine anyway).

You said you're in cash bonds. Cash is an asset class and bonds are an asset class, but cash bonds is not an asset class, so decide how much of this post actually applies to you. Be careful. Also, feel free to ignore anything I say.

Good luck. Wash your hands!
������

Totally agree, bonds are a suckers play at these rate levels, especially with the eventual inflation that has to occur (declining value of the US $) because of how much the Fed is increasing the money supply. And that is only talking about US Treasury bonds, Corporate bonds will have it much worse with increased default rates.

[Yung Dum]

Personally, I couldn't care less. I got out of that money-making (or losing) roller coaster a long time ago and have never been so relaxed about my finances. I don't have to get rich, but I do have to live without constant worries about money. Retirement should be just that and not be about getting richer. Try to enjoy it.

[Paper1]

We will never know where the real bottom of the market is unless the Fed stops artificially supporting it by pumping unprecidented amounts of liquidity into it. A real market is supported by underlying economic fundamentals, not the Fed. There seems to be a very large disconnect between Main St. and Wall St.

Clearly there are a number of people contributing to this thread that know a hell of a lot more than I do about economics but you have identified the root case of what I think is going to eventually have a devastating impact on this economy and stock market when bill comes due. I have been concerned about the reckless election year stimulus spending for this virus and wondered why with this level of added debt, unemployment skyrocketing at never before seen rate, and people dying from the virus that the stock market is recovering at record rate. The answer is the same reason bank CD's have been paying 1% for years and will continue to do so unless economy crashes altogether. Since 2008 Fed has been enabling and seemingly encouraging congress's complete disregard for national debt. This is not about market fundamentals.Thank you for letting me add my two cents.

[Two Bills]

Consider being very careful about holding bond funds. The ten year treasury bond is selling close to .6%. Not 6% but point-6 %. There's not a lot of room to drop from here. If rates go up the value of bond funds will drop. A rate increase from .6 to 1.2 could cause a 50% drop in the value of bond funds, depending on the bond maturities. Rates have never been lower in our lifetimes (well, mine anyway).

You said you're in cash bonds. Cash is an asset class and bonds are an asset class, but cash bonds is not an asset class, so decide how much of this post actually applies to you. Be careful. Also, feel free to ignore anything I say.

Good luck. Wash your hands!
😄

Should have mentioned, I am in UK.
Wife and I have been in cash bonds from when we retired 24 years ago.
Didn't want to spend our retirement sweating on something we had no control over.
Most are small (now, very small) interest rate, plus inflation, and whilst not making us any wealthier, they have kept us and our savings safe from market fluctuations.
So we can budget and spend pretty much knowing what our bottom line is.

Stay well.
Don't cough in the supermarket!

[retiredguy123]

Personally, I couldn't care less. I got out of that money-making (or losing) roller coaster a long time ago and have never been so relaxed about my finances. I don't have to get rich, but I do have to live without constant worries about money. Retirement should be just that and not be about getting richer. Try to enjoy it.
That was my retirement plan many years ago. Transfer all my stock funds into bank CDs and live off the interest of about 4--5 percent. But, then the Federal Reserve started to artificially lower interest rates, and my stock funds skyrocketed in value. So, I would have had to pay an enormous capital gains tax and buy bank CDs that were paying less than 1 percent. I liked it better when banks actually wanted you to buy a CD. I even got a set of Corningware once from a bank when I bought a CD. Now, the banks get free money and they don't care if you buy their CDs or not.

[skyking]

Symbol Price Change % Chg
^DJI 24,633.86 532.31 2.21%
^IXIC 8,914.71 306.98 3.57%
^GSPC 2,939.51 76.12 2.66%

[TellerJohn]

I guess the Fed will not have to add buying stocks to its mandate now.

[skyking]

10,000

The Dow is now at 27,930.

The NASDAQ and S&P have set new records.

NASDAQ 11,311
S&P 3,397

CDs and fixed investments nearing zero.

[dewilson58]

Now let's all try to guess the next dip.


:blahblahblah:

[Stu from NYC]

Now let's all try to guess the next dip.


:blahblahblah:

According my barber it will be the first Thursday after the first Friday of a month to be determined

[tvbound]

It's pretty baffling as to what (other than greed and those who think they're smart enough to bail just in time) on what is driving the markets right now. It's a completely different situation than 2008, but eerily similar to 1987. I hope I'm wrong though.

[Paper1]

The Dow is now at 27,930.

The NASDAQ and S&P have set new records.

NASDAQ 11,311
S&P 3,397

CDs and fixed investments nearing zero.

National debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet also reached records today, I wonder if that has anything to do with stock market?

[justjim]

I had a college professor/CPA mentor and friend who passed just a few years ago. Boy howdy could I use his advice now. Bottom line as I see it is to remain diversified and stay the course similar to what we needed to do during the last stock market crash.

[Bucco]

It's pretty baffling as to what (other than greed and those who think they're smart enough to bail just in time) on what is driving the markets right now. It's a completely different situation than 2008, but eerily similar to 1987. I hope I'm wrong though.

This is not my "cup of tea" but when they went to zero on rates, they basically said that you can only make money on money in the market. .

High interest everything disappeared...left the markets as the only place your money had a chance, especially S&P because of the technology stocks.

Just a thought.

[skyking]

This is not my "cup of tea" but when they went to zero on rates, they basically said that you can only make money on money in the market. .

High interest everything disappeared...left the markets as the only place your money had a chance, especially S&P because of the technology stocks.

Just a thought.

Tech stocks have helped the NASDAQ which is 40% technology stocks. The S&P is 20% technology.

[retiredguy123]

National debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet also reached records today, I wonder if that has anything to do with stock market?
The national debt reaching a record has absolutely nothing to do with the stock market. The debt reaches a record every day. That is because the Government spends more money than they take in every minute of every day. Here is a link where you can watch your tax dollars going down the drain in real time all day long, 24/7.

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time (https://usdebtclock.org/index.html?taxpayer=)

[Boomer]

The market has been inflated and fake for the past couple of years because so much of the money from corporate tax breaks was spent on stock buybacks.

CEOs love stock buybacks because their compensation is tied to share price. But did the regular workers get raises? Were more good jobs created?

Now the market continues to climb. Why? Well, my guess is that buybacks are continuing. But also with the interest rate on CDs at almost zero, investors are turning to — or staying in — the market.

But it is naive to believe this climbing market can be in any way touted as a strong economy.

[dewilson58]

I had a college professor/CPA mentor and friend who passed just a few years ago. Boy howdy could I use his advice now. Bottom line as I see it is to remain diversified and stay the course similar to what we needed to do during the last stock market crash.


Exactly.

[dewilson58]

According my barber it will be the first Thursday after the first Friday of a month to be determined




I will listen to your barber if he/she gives nice cuts.

[tvbound]

When it comes to the current markets and stocks, I'm with this guy.

Market Crash 2020: Warren Buffett Is Ready to Pump In $146.6 Billion (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/market-crash-2020-warren-buffett-is-ready-to-pump-in-146-6-billion/ar-BB18c4sm)


"The market cap-to-GDP ratio, also known as the Warren Buffett indicator, suggests that the equity markets are significantly overvalued. This ratio stands at an astonishing 179%, which means the U.S. markets are trading at a premium of at least 79% and need to correct significantly.

There is too much uncertainty surrounding global economies and the market recovery makes little sense. It is based more on investor optimism rather than fundamentals, and you can see why Warren Buffett is taking a cautious approach to investing right now."

[Stu from NYC]

I will listen to your barber if he/she gives nice cuts.

Wish I had more hair to spend more time having it cut so as to listen to him pontificate on world affairs

[Paper1]

The national debt reaching a record has absolutely nothing to do with the stock market. The debt reaches a record every day. That is because the Government spends more money than they take in every minute of every day. Here is a link where you can watch your tax dollars going down the drain in real time all day long, 24/7.

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time (https://usdebtclock.org/index.html?taxpayer=)
I believe national debt has everything to do with Market. If the country was forced to balance it's budget in 2021 and Fed stopped printing money and buying debt I believe the market would tank, no crash. Our entire economy is now dependent on deficit spending, to say that is not propping up market is not logical. Our generation will never see bank CDs pay 4% again. IMHO

[retiredguy123]

I believe national debt has everything to do with Market. If the country was forced to balance it's budget in 2021 and Fed stopped printing money and buying debt I believe the market would tank, no crash. Our entire economy is now dependent on deficit spending, to say that is not propping up market is not logical. Our generation will never see bank CDs pay 4% again. IMHO
My comment was about the national debt reaching a "record". The debt reaches a record high every day, and the economy has been dependent on deficit spending almost every fiscal year for the last 100 years. Yes, deficit spending does prop up the market, but that is nothing new. I would love to see the country balance the budget, but the budget is controlled by Congress, who are elected by the voters. And, most voters have no interest in a balanced budget. The chance for a balanced budget in 2021 is about zero.

[Stu from NYC]

My comment was about the national debt reaching a "record". The debt reaches a record high every day, and the economy has been dependent on deficit spending almost every fiscal year for the last 100 years. Yes, deficit spending does prop up the market, but that is nothing new. I would love to see the country balance the budget, but the budget is controlled by Congress, who are elected by the voters. And, most voters have no interest in a balanced budget. The chance for a balanced budget in 2021 is about zero.

We have had a surplus during the second Clinton administration. Combination of both sides working together.

Unfortunately 9 11 happened and both parties decided lets run deficits all the time.

At some points deficit spending is good to help the economy but when they do it all the time spending gets out of control and inefficient govt spending crowds out small companies (from borrowing) who are the engine of our economy.

After the virus is under control we do need to get govt spending under control and at least run a balanced budget.

[retiredguy123]

We have had a surplus during the second Clinton administration. Combination of both sides working together.

Unfortunately 9 11 happened and both parties decided lets run deficits all the time.

At some points deficit spending is good to help the economy but when they do it all the time spending gets out of control and inefficient govt spending crowds out small companies (from borrowing) who are the engine of our economy.

After the virus is under control we do need to get govt spending under control and at least run a balanced budget.
The problem is that it is too late for a balanced budget, unless you are looking at gradually reducing spending over 10 or 20 years. If you forced a balanced budget in one year, I think the unemployment rate would increase to over 50 percent, and you would need to reduce Government pensions, Social Security, Medicare, and military spending drastically. And, the stock market would crash. That is because Congress has already spent money for many years into the future. The only way to balance the budget is to default on money that has been obligated. My opinion.

[Stu from NYC]

The problem is that it is too late for a balanced budget, unless you are looking at gradually reducing spending over 10 or 20 years. If you forced a balanced budget in one year, I think the unemployment rate would increase to over 50 percent, and you would need to reduce Government pensions, Social Security, Medicare, and military spending drastically. And, the stock market would crash. That is because Congress has already spent money for many years into the future. The only way to balance the budget is to default on money that has been obligated. My opinion.

I agree cannot do it at one time must be done gradually. They need to set a target date and make it a requirement that the deficit comes down so much a year until balance is achieved.

Than it would be nice if they continued acting responsibly running a surplus to pay down the debt.

Do I think this will happen. Unfortunately no.

[retiredguy123]

I agree cannot do it at one time must be done gradually. They need to set a target date and make it a requirement that the deficit comes down so much a year until balance is achieved.

Than it would be nice if they continued acting responsibly running a surplus to pay down the debt.

Do I think this will happen. Unfortunately no.
The requirement you are suggesting would require a constitutional amendment because Congress creates a new budget annually, and cannot control any other future spending decisions. But, I would be in favor of an amendment like that.

[Stu from NYC]

The requirement you are suggesting would require a constitutional amendment because Congress creates a new budget annually, and cannot control any other future spending decisions. But, I would be in favor of an amendment like that.

30 or so years ago Congress did pass some sort of a resolution about a balanced budget and for awhile followed it but after a few years ignored it.

Warren Buffet came up with an interesting idea how to balance the budget within a minute or two.

When times were good, if the congress ran a deficit of a certain size (do not remember the percentage) all sitting congressman would be ineligible to run for reelection.

That would be a wonderful amendment.

[Paper1]

30 or so years ago Congress did pass some sort of a resolution about a balanced budget and for awhile followed it but after a few years ignored it.

Warren Buffet came up with an interesting idea how to balance the budget within a minute or two.

When times were good, if the congress ran a deficit of a certain size (do not remember the percentage) all sitting congressman would be ineligible to run for reelection.

That would be a wonderful amendment.

The problem with balancing the budget is people who are paying for government services don’t want to pay anymore and those receiving said services don’t want them reduced. In order to be elected to political office you need both groups therefore the budget deficit was invented.

[Stu from NYC]

The problem with balancing the budget is people who are paying for government services don’t want to pay anymore and those receiving said services don’t want them reduced. In order to be elected to political office you need both groups therefore the budget deficit was invented.

If we had term limits perhaps we get people elected and they become leaders doing what is best for the country instead of what the think they need to do to get reelected.