Florida vs NY Covid-19 Comparison is Enlightening

[Bobcuse]

My daughter is a Nurse Practicioner who oversees healthcare for the elderly in nursing homes in NY. She believes that the Florida numbers of Covid-19 cases are significantly lower than New York's (even after excluding NYC) because the more elderly population in Florida is wiser and more responsible than the younger generation who don't practice the mitigation guidelines for whatever reasons. ( 75% of Florida cases are under age 65). Interesting perspective. Everyone has an opinion but the facts are as follows as of April 20:

Florida Population: 21,646,155 Cases: 27,058 Deaths: 823


New York Population: 19,491,339. Cases: 242,786. Deaths: 13,869


Knowing NYC is the big hotspot, I isolated these numbers. Here are the results:


NYC Population: 8,770,000 Cases: 136,806 Deaths: 10,344

Non-NYC Population: 10,721,339. Cases: 105,980 Deaths: 3.525


I didn't remove the Florida hotspots Miami, Ft Lauderdale, etc. but as you can see the Florida cases are significantly lower than NY with or without NYC. Florida's number would be 10 times higher with NY's ratio of cases per population. Now I can see why reopening should be significantly different state by state.

This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown with two females in Florida for 6 weeks.

[skarra]

Interesting stats. Thanks for sharing.

[TomOB]

Florida's testing is woefully inadequate compared to NY. NY has almost as many positive tests as the total amount of testing done in FL.

[justjim]

Yes, interesting information. The two are different in many ways too. New York City density and younger population is a huge difference. Although Florida has travel, it pales in comparison to the international flights in and out of NY. There is compelling evidence that the virus originated overseas and was carried to the United States. Many of us moved to Florida for the mild winter climate. Of course there are other reasons, and high on the list is the opportunity for an active lifestyle that a community with amenities like The Villages. Common sense distancing, washing of hands and following Coronavirus guidelines will help get us through this experience. Most of us have survived tough times before and will again. :boxing2:

[Velvet]

Florida's testing is woefully inadequate compared to NY. NY has almost as many positive tests as the total amount of testing done in FL.

Testing rate doesn’t influence death rate. Dead is dead.

[Lindsyburnsy]

Exactly.

[kcal63]

Interesting stats but will they hold up ? Please check back in, in a month.

[Stu from NYC]

Still wonder how accurate the statistics are in the first place but thanks for the sharing

[swooner]

My daughter is a Nurse Practicioner who oversees healthcare for the elderly in nursing homes in NY. She believes that the Florida numbers of Covid-19 cases are significantly lower than New York's (even after excluding NYC) because the more elderly population in Florida is wiser and more responsible than the younger generation who don't practice the mitigation guidelines for whatever reasons. ( 75% of Florida cases are under age 65). Interesting perspective. Everyone has an opinion but the facts are as follows as of April 20:

Florida Population: 21,646,155 Cases: 27,058 Deaths: 823


New York Population: 19,491,339. Cases: 242,786. Deaths: 13,869


Knowing NYC is the big hotspot, I isolated these numbers. Here are the results:


NYC Population: 8,770,000 Cases: 136,806 Deaths: 10,344

Non-NYC Population: 10,721,339. Cases: 105,980 Deaths: 3.525


I didn't remove the Florida hotspots Miami, Ft Lauderdale, etc. but as you can see the Florida cases are significantly lower than NY with or without NYC. Florida's number would be 10 times higher with NY's ratio of cases per population. Now I can see why reopening should be significantly different state by state.

This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown with two females in Florida for 6 weeks.
Ridiculous analysis.

[gbs317]

Ridiculous analysis.
Why is that a ridiculous analysis?

[Bridget Staunton]

Your wonderful, thanks for the analysis

[Rsenholzi]

Really? I think it’s because we can’t get tested like they are doing in NY. Testing here in the Villages was open for about 10 days and then they closed for lack of testing supplies. Most tested were for research not because people thought they had it. Most of those were turned away. I believe only about 900 were test in an area with 160,000 homes. Then they finally opened again for 2 days only? I believe our numbers are low not because people are wiser here but because of lack of testing.

[Shadia328]

Thank you! I compared Oakland County, Michigan ( my home, suburban Detroit) with Lake, Marion and Sumter counties. Adjusting for population differences, they have 13 times the cases we have. I think this is interesting, because Oakland county has virtually no public transportation. Poor Detroit. Not sure when I will return.

[Transplant]

If you have symptoms there are no shortage of tests. Call your doctor.

[ficoguy]

NY re-classified 7,000 deaths from unknown to virus, to pump up the numbers. They are crying poor mouth with 10 loaves of bread under their arms. The Comfort and The Javits field hospitals only had 20 and 90 patients between them, respectively. And that's Federal money paying for those. Cuomo told Trump to get the Comfort outta there - they need the dock space for commercial traffic. NY NY - always thumbing their nose at the rest of us. Here's mud in your eye......

[Timothy_Thomas]

Testing may increase the total number of cases. It will not change number of deaths.

[ficoguy]

NY gets everything...and usually at the taxpayer expense
The orthodox communities in NY and NJ have a huge spread rate because there is no social distancing

[Tennisbum]

Florida's testing is woefully inadequate compared to NY. NY has almost as many positive tests as the total amount of testing done in FL.
Florida testing is lower due to the number of counties that have less then 10 cases and there is no real reason for the general population to get tested. Gulf County had one case and she if fine now. They test 200 people who had the "regular" flu!

[cindyfeh]

Our death rate per capita could be much higher. Many people claim Florida residency, but are not here right now. They are seasonal. I wonder what the actual death rate is . . .

[lindaelane]

Please...stop saying "Florida tested less than NY so the analysis is invalid".

You can ignore the "number of cases" column. This number is not comparable for any two states or countries due to differences in testing.

Pay attention to the "deaths" column. It is more valid for comparisons between states.

Its still not perfect, for instance, NY City added a large number of people "presumed to have died of Covid" and I'm not sure Florida has done that. But if this number was subtracted from NY's total, Florida would still have far fewer deaths. The difference in deaths is so great, its hard to attribute it to differential reporting.

So something is going on to make NY City different than Florida...that's obvious (public transport, international flights) but also NY State. Can it be fully accounted for by such things commuters to the NY suburbs (e.g. Westchester County) with subsequent travel by them and those they infect into the rest of the state? We don't know.

It's preliminary, but some scientists believe public transportation is the most common place in which the virus is spread. We do not have that here. It could make a substantial difference in rates of infection.

[diamond2005]

Then go to NY, please! Delta is ready, when you are.....

[ficoguy]

Many deaths in NY listed previously as "unknown cause" going back to February have been reclassified to CV19 deaths - Cuomo is pumping up the numbers, playing the game - and its working - the media is gah gah over his antics. Funny how his methods are viewed by the media as LEADERSHIP but when Trump does the same think he is a DICTATOR.

[caljeff]

Testing rate doesn’t influence death rate. Dead is dead.

I generally agree. However; increased testing would increase the denominator enumerating this percentage: deaths/total cases.

[mikeritz53]

Really? I think it’s because we can’t get tested like they are doing in NY. Testing here in the Villages was open for about 10 days and then they closed for lack of testing supplies. Most tested were for research not because people thought they had it. Most of those were turned away. I believe only about 900 were test in an area with 160,000 homes. Then they finally opened again for 2 days only? I believe our numbers are low not because people are wiser here but because of lack of testing.
Where are your numbers from. There are approx. 70,000 homes and total Pop. in The Villages at 125,000+ of which there are many not here FT. The testing at the Polo fields did around 2,500+ and it was not a test, close to 2,000 were symptom related.

[MandoMan]

My daughter is a Nurse Practicioner who oversees healthcare for the elderly in nursing homes in NY. She believes that the Florida numbers of Covid-19 cases are significantly lower than New York's (even after excluding NYC) because the more elderly population in Florida is wiser and more responsible than the younger generation who don't practice the mitigation guidelines for whatever reasons. ( 75% of Florida cases are under age 65). Interesting perspective. Everyone has an opinion but the facts are as follows as of April 20:

Florida Population: 21,646,155 Cases: 27,058 Deaths: 823


New York Population: 19,491,339. Cases: 242,786. Deaths: 13,869


Knowing NYC is the big hotspot, I isolated these numbers. Here are the results:


NYC Population: 8,770,000 Cases: 136,806 Deaths: 10,344

Non-NYC Population: 10,721,339. Cases: 105,980 Deaths: 3.525


I didn't remove the Florida hotspots Miami, Ft Lauderdale, etc. but as you can see the Florida cases are significantly lower than NY with or without NYC. Florida's number would be 10 times higher with NY's ratio of cases per population. Now I can see why reopening should be significantly different state by state.

This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown with two females in Florida for 6 weeks.

Thank you, retired numbers guy. Here is a related task for you. Could you now figure out similar numbers for Tri-County people who live IN The Villages and Tri-County people who do NOT live in The Villages? I think there is enough information available online now that you can figure that out.

My sense is that you will find that the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized, and dead of those who live IN The Villages is much lower per thousand than those who live in the Tri-County area but on the outside. This is probably a function of relative ages, ability to socially distance, number of people per household, socio-economic status, willingness to follow rules, education level, type of employment or unemployment, necessary (or unnecessary) contact with others, and more. I suspect that Villagers are MUCH safer than non-villagers, for a combination of these reasons. I hope you will figure out the numbers for us.

[davem4616]

the OP is trying to compare apples and oranges

there are way too many differences between the state of NY and the state of FL to draw any real conclusions from this

[dougjb]

My daughter is a Nurse Practicioner who oversees healthcare for the elderly in nursing homes in NY. She believes that the Florida numbers of Covid-19 cases are significantly lower than New York's (even after excluding NYC) because the more elderly population in Florida is wiser and more responsible than the younger generation who don't practice the mitigation guidelines for whatever reasons. ( 75% of Florida cases are under age 65). Interesting perspective. Everyone has an opinion but the facts are as follows as of April 20:

Florida Population: 21,646,155 Cases: 27,058 Deaths: 823


New York Population: 19,491,339. Cases: 242,786. Deaths: 13,869


Knowing NYC is the big hotspot, I isolated these numbers. Here are the results:


NYC Population: 8,770,000 Cases: 136,806 Deaths: 10,344

Non-NYC Population: 10,721,339. Cases: 105,980 Deaths: 3.525


I didn't remove the Florida hotspots Miami, Ft Lauderdale, etc. but as you can see the Florida cases are significantly lower than NY with or without NYC. Florida's number would be 10 times higher with NY's ratio of cases per population. Now I can see why reopening should be significantly different state by state.

This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown with two females in Florida for 6 weeks.

What a fine analysis! I am sure no one ever travels between Florida and New York and vice versa. So, I guess you are suggesting opening up those low incidence areas so they can catch up to the high incidence areas. Makes total sense to me! HUH?

[haysus7]

The population in NYC is densely populated and public transportation made the virus spread faster

[RonGee]

Why is that a ridiculous analysis?

What do your numbers show?

[mwpoet]

We are not New York because they are denser, they have a big international airport bringing in people around the world and more minorities who are hit harder.

[LorrieR]

Curious though. What is the density of population in Miami compared to the density of NYC i regards to CoVid10?

[ficoguy]

Testing rate doesn’t influence death rate. Dead is dead.
Yep. Testing IQ doesn’t produce more dumb people

[hokie2]

Testing has nothing to do with the number of deaths. They do not test to see if you are dead or not.

[Tallrider]

Good work, thx. Including % wud b helpful ...just to be picky. I'm thinking a large factor is that up north there is a wider, closer variety of people around the aged than down here in retirement communities. Family is closer, etc. Climate? But I don't disagree with your analysis. Hang in there buddy.

[Barefoot]

I guess you are suggesting opening up those low incidence areas so they can catch up to the high incidence areas. HUH?There are lots of elderly people who have retired in Florida.
I don't think they should reopen Florida any time soon, because elderly people may catch COVID and die.

[EnglishJW]

NY gets everything...and usually at the taxpayer expense
The orthodox communities in NY and NJ have a huge spread rate because there is no social distancing

Factually, you are completely wrong with your comment on taxes. NY is in the top four of only 10 "donor" states.

The 10 'Donor States' That Give More to the Feds Than They Get Back (https://www.governing.com/week-in-finance/gov-taxpayers-10-states-give-more-feds-than-get-back.html)

[EnglishJW]

Curious though. What is the density of population in Miami compared to the density of NYC i regards to CoVid10?


This is not an exact answer to your question but it does provide some useful information on population density.

List of U.S. states by population density - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_density)

[merrymini]

People are playing with the numbers and that makes what they say “ lying” through you teeth. Underreporting or over reporting for their self serving reasons does not make the situation clearer. Unknown cause should be reported that way until they can be certain.

[dplars]

Agreed, a test is just a snapshot in time, its a good as the moment,

[RonGee]

NY re-classified 7,000 deaths from unknown to virus, to pump up the numbers. They are crying poor mouth with 10 loaves of bread under their arms. The Comfort and The Javits field hospitals only had 20 and 90 patients between them, respectively. And that's Federal money paying for those. Cuomo told Trump to get the Comfort outta there - they need the dock space for commercial traffic. NY NY - always thumbing their nose at the rest of us. Here's mud in your eye......
From what I understand, NY asked for what it estimated it would need to stay ahead of the virus. They didn't pick numbers off the top of their heads. Their estimates were calculated according to the White House guidelines and estimates.

[EnglishJW]

Curious though. What is the density of population in Miami compared to the density of NYC i regards to CoVid10?

There is a good source of information to answer your question here. I have it set to present the results for New York City. You can enter any major city, such as Miami, at the top to get comparative numbers. Simply stated, the density in NYC is more than double that of Miami.

New York, NY - USA.com™ (http://www.usa.com/new-york-ny.htm)

[manaboutown]

Nearly all NY coronavirus patients suffered underlying health issue, study finds | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/nearly-all-ny-coronavirus-patients-suffered-underlying-health-issue-study-finds?fbclid=IwAR0tA-YKoy-4IqKA9ziZJvEpUEFta1Xb9xvI0BM_rKVh8XAABK14X4SVrVg)

[nancymiller217@yahoo.com]

This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown.

Also a numbers person here. Here’s another couple of enlightening statistics:

The % testing positive in NYC ranges from 26-73%

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04222020-1.pdf

Whereas in FL, the percent testing positive is 9.7%

Experience (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429)

In Sumter county it’s about the same as FL as a whole, in Lake it’s less than 6%

So if you are in NYC and you have symptoms and think you have it, you probably do. In our area, not so much.

[ValSetz]

So in your world testing should be equal across the country rather than hot spots. NYC is a hot spot, as is Miami. We don't hear much about Miami, but because of the publicity given the governor of NY on CNN this is what you hear about most and the squeaky wheel always gets oiled first!

[blueash]

NY re-classified 7,000 deaths from unknown to virus, to pump up the numbers. They are crying poor mouth with 10 loaves of bread under their arms. The Comfort and The Javits field hospitals only had 20 and 90 patients between them, respectively. And that's Federal money paying for those. Cuomo told Trump to get the Comfort outta there - they need the dock space for commercial traffic. NY NY - always thumbing their nose at the rest of us. Here's mud in your eye......

Where do you get your information. I am continually impressed at the stuff you know that I have completely missed in my reading.

NY re-classified 7,000 deaths from unknown to virus, to pump up the numbers
Wrong, NY added to its death total any deaths where the MD or the coroner listed COVID on the death certificate as a secondary cause of death.. for example death caused 1. By pneumonia 2 probable Covid-19 Only those with the confirmed cause were initially counted.

The Comfort and The Javits field hospitals only had 20 and 90 patients between them, respectively.
The Comfort treated 179 patients
USNS Comfort leaving NYC after treating just 179 patients in 3 weeks - Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/usns-comfort-leaving-nyc-few-coronavirus-patients-three-weeks-2020-4)
I don't know how many were treated at Javits, but on one day there were 225
USNS Comfort and Javits Center mostly empty amid coronavirus (https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/usns-comfort-and-javits-center-mostly-empty-amid-coronavirus/)
And the Army-manned, 1,000-bed Javits Center field hospital — now serving lower-severity COVID-19 cases — had only 225 patients, officials said Thursday.

Cuomo told Trump to get the Comfort outta there

"Cuomo offered to have the ship deployed to another hard-hit area during a Tuesday meeting with the president.
"It was very good to have in case we had overflow, but I said we don't really need the Comfort anymore," Cuomo told MSNBC after the meeting. "It did give us comfort, but we don't need it anymore, so if they need to deploy that somewhere else, they should take it." Trump took him up on the offer"

Do you really think Trump takes orders from Gov Cuomo?

[blueash]

Testing rate doesn’t influence death rate. Dead is dead.

In one important way, testing is important. While dead is dead, determining the cause of death is important, obviously, to ascertain the extent of disease and its lethality.

In NY they are now recording as COVID deaths all cases where the MD or coroner includes COVID on the death certificate as proven or if in the judgement of the person, probable. This captures not just test positive deaths.

However this is not how every location or state is reporting their deaths. AFAIK Florida is only reporting test positive deaths as COVID. So if you die at home, untested, or a nursing home, untested, or in a hospital not yet tested and you have COVID symptoms but not proven, you are not a COVID death. While now there is an effort to test every employee (https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/04/19/florida-national-guard-plans-to-test-every-employee-at-long-term-care-facilities-for-covid-19/)in nursing homes, this is new. And it does not include patients.

So dead is not simply dead when you are discussing COVID deaths.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Gov. DeSantis on how Florida went from high risk to flattening the curve - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5vNhgR3eWQ)

[meme5x]

If people would stay a safe distance, wear a mask and wash their hands we’d get through this easier.... no gatherings

[Dreah]

That's because Gov.Cuomo knows what he's doing.

[yankygrl]

as a group we are social people . Isolation is not good for anyone - leads to several other issues physical and mental. I'd love to see statistics on suicide rate right now. You can follow all the guidelines and still be social lessening the loneliness.

[72lions]

Really? I think it’s because we can’t get tested like they are doing in NY. Testing here in the Villages was open for about 10 days and then they closed for lack of testing supplies. Most tested were for research not because people thought they had it. Most of those were turned away. I believe only about 900 were test in an area with 160,000 homes. Then they finally opened again for 2 days only? I believe our numbers are low not because people are wiser here but because of lack of testing.
160,000 homes? There aren’t even 160000 people

[ONTAP15]

The squeaky wheel was losing 800 souls a day. The squeaky wheel continues to lose 500 of it's citizens a day..