Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm expected to reach herd immunty

[GoodLife]

No lockdown in Sweden but Stockholm could see '''herd immunity''' in weeks (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html)

On the herd immunity vs lockdown debate, I found this in another article

Protecting a population from becoming infected with aggressive containment is like protecting a forest in the path of wildfire – unless continuous fire fighting efforts are made, the forest will eventually burn. Aggressive contact tracing, testing, quarantine and lockdowns minimise contagion and have substantially reduced early fatalities from COVID-19.

But unless those who remain uninfected are protected until effective pharmacological interventions (vaccines, prophylactics and therapeutics) come online, the ultimate burden of deaths may be the same in countries who opt for lockdown as in those who adopted more liberal containment strategies.

Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-are-we-underestimating-how-many-people-have-had-it-sweden-thinks-so-136893)

[GoodLife]

No lockdown in Sweden but Stockholm could see '''herd immunity''' in weeks (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html)

From another article:

Protecting a population from becoming infected with aggressive containment is like protecting a forest in the path of wildfire – unless continuous fire fighting efforts are made, the forest will eventually burn. Aggressive contact tracing, testing, quarantine and lockdowns minimise contagion and have substantially reduced early fatalities from COVID-19.

But unless those who remain uninfected are protected until effective pharmacological interventions (vaccines, prophylactics and therapeutics) come online, the ultimate burden of deaths may be the same in countries who opt for lockdown as in those who adopted more liberal containment strategies.

Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-are-we-underestimating-how-many-people-have-had-it-sweden-thinks-so-136893)

[ficoguy]

A virus needs to live. If it were to destroy all its hosts then it would be out if business....so, no, we all ain't gonna die....follow the bell curve....don't try to change the normal distribution...the longer this isolation stuff goes on the more you prolong the outbreak and you will have a 6 year bell curve instead of six months.

[stan the man]

No lockdown in Sweden but Stockholm could see '''herd immunity''' in weeks (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html)

From another article:

Protecting a population from becoming infected with aggressive containment is like protecting a forest in the path of wildfire – unless continuous fire fighting efforts are made, the forest will eventually burn. Aggressive contact tracing, testing, quarantine and lockdowns minimise contagion and have substantially reduced early fatalities from COVID-19.

But unless those who remain uninfected are protected until effective pharmacological interventions (vaccines, prophylactics and therapeutics) come online, the ultimate burden of deaths may be the same in countries who opt for lockdown as in those who adopted more liberal containment strategies.

Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-are-we-underestimating-how-many-people-have-had-it-sweden-thinks-so-136893)
I guess we will see in a couple weeks

[Velvet]

It doesn’t look like herd immunity is ever going to happen, just dead people. The WHO said there is no evidence at this time that antibodies prevent you from catching Covid-19 again.

[Arctic Fox]

It doesn’t look like herd immunity is ever going to happen, just dead people. The WHO said there is no evidence at this time that antibodies prevent you from catching Covid-19 again.

but that's not to say that your reaction to it the next time round won't be a lot less severe.

The flu virus changes every year, but whatever type of flu jab you get (and the manufacturers have to make an informed guess of what type they should make well in advance of flu season) tends to be better than no jab at all, even though you won't have antibodies specific to the actual flu virus.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

but that's not to say that your reaction to it the next time round won't be a lot less severe.

The flu virus changes every year, but whatever type of flu jab you get (and the manufacturers have to make an informed guess of what type they should make well in advance of flu season) tends to be better than no jab at all, even though you won't have antibodies specific to the actual flu virus.

So instead of dying like you did this time, you only..

hm, no that won't work will it?

Okay so instead of you being intubated and barely recovering, and being traumatized for the rest of whatever is left of your now-shortened life, you merely...

might end up dying afterall because the previous bout left you with scarring on your ravaged lungs, and any new illness that effects your lungs might kill you.

Hm, again.

[JoMar]

So much speculation so little data :)

[npwalters]

This from WHO four days ago. Note they say they EXPECT some immunity from previous infection but just don't know for how long. That is a more positive picture than the WHO says they don't know if immunity occurs at all. Some of y'all just want to grab the worst possible conclusion and run with it.

" More than 440,000 people worldwide are known to have recovered from COVID-19 — and their status is an important and lingering question. If people are immune after recovery, the thinking goes, they could resume normal life activities more quickly and provide both an economic boost and help in rendering essential services.

But for now, the answer to the question of whether people who have recovered can then be re-infected remains "an unknown," Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's emergencies programs, said.

"One would expect that a person who generates a full-blown immune response with detectable antibodies should have protection for a period of time," Ryan said. "We just don't know what that period of time is. We would expect that to be a reasonable period of protection, but it is very difficult to say that with a new virus."

[TexaninVA]

It doesn’t look like herd immunity is ever going to happen, just dead people. The WHO said there is no evidence at this time that antibodies prevent you from catching Covid-19 again.

Who really knows how good the WHO is?

They originally said, back in January, there was no human to human transmission.


...

[billethkid]

All the discussions always seem to be confined to who gets it and of those how many die from it.

What about the other 95%+++ that either don't get it....are asymptomatic and don't get it....and that other big number those who recover.

We know the high(er) risk numbers and can gather more info about those with pre-existing conditions.

With all the above in the hands of scientists and statisticians there is no doubt a common sense balance that allows the majority, low(er) risk population to resume to normal or normal-like existence.

I am afraid the politics have blunted America from doing what is the next most logical action to take. The lock downs and one size fits all stay at homes have accomplished the objective (for the most part)....

Aggressive implementation of the 3 phases of opening America plus some common sense.

[Velvet]

Four days ago they had hoped there might be some type of immunity from antibodies, today they see no indication of it. So if you get it again with your now weakened system from it previously, what’s your odds the second time?
The WHO may not be correct but do you see any health organization anywhere contradicting them?

Everybody, including me wants antibodies to work, but wanting doesn’t make it so.

[birdiebill]

Four days ago they had hoped there might be some type of immunity from antibodies, today they see no indication of it. So if you get it again with your now weakened system from it previously, what’s your odds the second time?
The WHO may not be correct but do you see any health organization anywhere contradicting them?

Everybody, including me wants antibodies to work, but wanting doesn’t make it so.

Part of the WHO response was left off. Full comment was; "We don't know even if the antibodies are protective, what degree of protection they provide, so it could be complete, it could be partial, or how long the antibodies last," Hayden added, "We know that antibody responses wane over time."

[Velvet]

Updated Saturday April 25, 2020

WHO:
"There is no evidence yet that people who have had Covid-19 will not get a second infection," WHO said in a scientific brief published Friday.”

That is crystal clear to me... no room for trying to explain it away. Do I want to hear that? Of course not!

[jebartle]

And this too will pass!

Vaccine in a year or so......

[Velvet]

And this too will pass!
.

And hopefully, you and I won’t pass along with it. ;)

[manaboutown]

Sweden'''s coronavirus response protects its economy | Fox Business (https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/sweden-coronavirus-response-economy?fbclid=IwAR1xRbfivazvNgDd65l0sMul6bpON4SCd gkdxcfTCJUHFNmXrbmv4oWdRz8)

[MOMOH]

Is there any evidence that getting coronavirus DOES NOT provide immunity? Have people gotten it twice? And, I'm not understanding why this virus would be so different from all the others that DO provide immunity. What other viruses don't provide immunity?

[Mikee1]

“We trust each other,” she said. “The people trust the authorities and the authorities trust the people. And I think that’s one of the biggest differences.”

A quote from the article which explains the major difference between them and the US

[rlcooper70]

You have it right - Sweden was willing to accept a certain number of deaths in order to keep society functional. In the US we are not .... we reference the tragedy of a death in comparison to profit and decide to focus on preventing a death. Societal Decisions versus protecting the individual? What's the right answer?

When I ask this question the reply is "what if it were your wife?" ... so perhaps there is no right answer.

[Leadbone1]

No lockdown in Sweden but Stockholm could see '''herd immunity''' in weeks (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html)

On the herd immunity vs lockdown debate, I found this in another article

Protecting a population from becoming infected with aggressive containment is like protecting a forest in the path of wildfire – unless continuous fire fighting efforts are made, the forest will eventually burn. Aggressive contact tracing, testing, quarantine and lockdowns minimise contagion and have substantially reduced early fatalities from COVID-19.

But unless those who remain uninfected are protected until effective pharmacological interventions (vaccines, prophylactics and therapeutics) come online, the ultimate burden of deaths may be the same in countries who opt for lockdown as in those who adopted more liberal containment strategies.

Coronavirus: are we underestimating how many people have had it? Sweden thinks so (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-are-we-underestimating-how-many-people-have-had-it-sweden-thinks-so-136893)

I wish we had handled this the same as Sweden. They get it. You cannot stay locked in your house forever and sooner or later you’re going to have to go out and take your chances with this the same as you do any other virus or disease. Fortunately, there are a few antiviral medications now that can control this to a large degree. I choose to live my life and take my chances just like I do every other day. Those that choose to remain paranoid can just lock themselves in their houses for as long as they choose. What they don’t have the right to do is tell anyone else how they should be living their life.

[GoodLife]

Sweden was willing to accept a certain number of deaths in order to keep society functional. In the US we are not ....

I have some facts for you, Sweden has a lower death rate per million than the USA does due to coronavirus. In fact ours is almost double.

Sweden 3.96 per million

USA 6.56 per million

Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-04-26)

[davem4616]

We visited Stockholm last August...nice city, not really very crowded...public transportation also not very crowded

I too have been reading the articles referring to Sweden's approach to covid-19 with interest

I do wonder how much of their 'success' has to do with the limited travel coming into Sweden this time of year....I suspect that travel to Sweden in January/February is pretty low compared to other times in the year...as well as compared to the number of people from all over flying into NYC in January/February

We can learn from everyone, however, I sense that comparing what's going on in Sweden to the States is a little like trying to compare apples and oranges

[merrymini]

WHO has proven itself to be so wrong in the only thing it should be right in because of it’s political motivations. You have to be free from influence and they have blown it big time.

[Stu from NYC]

No idea what the right answer is but WHO has certainly lost a lot of its credibility.

[Love2Swim]

We visited Stockholm last August...nice city, not really very crowded...public transportation also not very crowded

I too have been reading the articles referring to Sweden's approach to covid-19 with interest

I do wonder how much of their 'success' has to do with the limited travel coming into Sweden this time of year....I suspect that travel to Sweden in January/February is pretty low compared to other times in the year...as well as compared to the number of people from all over flying into NYC in January/February

We can learn from everyone, however, I sense that comparing what's going on in Sweden to the States is a little like trying to compare apples and oranges

I agree. Another factor is the closeness of people living together, like New York City and Miami. They apparently don't have that in Sweden to the extent we do.

[GoodLife]

I agree. Another factor is the closeness of people living together, like New York City and Miami. They apparently don't have that in Sweden to the extent we do.

Percentage of Swedes who live in urban areas is 65%, about the same as USA at 64%

Do more people live in urban or rural areas? - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/urban-vs-rural-majority)

[Ben Franklin]

Population of Sweden: 10 Million. Population of USA 331 million. Density of Sweden 63 people per sq. mile. USA 96 people per sq. mile. Deaths from COVID 19: Sweden 2,194. 0.021% USA 54,265. 0.16%.

[graciegirl]

I wish we had handled this the same as Sweden. They get it. You cannot stay locked in your house forever and sooner or later you’re going to have to go out and take your chances with this the same as you do any other virus or disease. Fortunately, there are a few antiviral medications now that can control this to a large degree. I choose to live my life and take my chances just like I do every other day. Those that choose to remain paranoid can just lock themselves in their houses for as long as they choose. What they don’t have the right to do is tell anyone else how they should be living their life.

There are no anti viral medications now that can control this AT ALL.

[MandoMan]

As of this morning, the number of virus deaths in Sweden is twice the number of deaths in Florida. Five times as many have died in Sweden as in Denmark, which closed things down. Ten times as many have died in Sweden as in Norway, it’s closest neighbor, which isolated even more effectively than did Denmark.

I guess we will find out if the Swedes quickly achieve herd immunity. I hope they do. I hope we do!

The business angle is a very serious question. Things are not going to simply restart and return to normal. Only after businesses try to restart and do it for a few months will we know the effect on the worldwide economy. For example, I have a close friend who is a director of a major European bank and based in New York City. The CEO says employees will no longer have to come to the office in New York if it makes them uncomfortable. If employees want to come to the office, they can come only one day a week. (My friend says no way she is going back to the New York office—she’ll work from home.) Conferences in person will no longer be allowed. Flying to meet with clients will no longer be allowed. How will that affect the country? Well, for a few things, just for this bank, several thousand business-class flights won’t be made—every week. A thousand nights in expensive big city hotels will not be booked—every week. Several thousand meals in very expensive restaurants won’t be purchased—every week. This means tough times for airlines and thousands of airline employees, hotels and thousands of hotel employees, taxis and thousand of drivers, restaurants and thousands of employees. It means a huge drop in transportation and hotel and restaurant taxes that support many large cities with lots of business and tourism. My friend’s bank expects this to continue until vaccines are available and given to nearly everyone and until there are antiviral drugs developed and available. (And don’t expect new antiviral drugs to be cheap. Some are $12 per pill, but one recommended drug is $118,000 per weekly dose.)

So we may decide that Sweden did the right thing and saved its economy, while our panic destroyed ours. Would it be better to take the chance on two to ten times as many deaths? Tough question. Are you willing to lose your own life, your spouse’s, your son’s, your daughter’s, your grandchild’s?

[cheweycat]

Your evidence please.

[JulieER]

But then the hospitals, nurses, doctors wouldn’t be able to handle it....

[vermonster]

Is there any evidence that getting coronavirus DOES NOT provide immunity? Have people gotten it twice? And, I'm not understanding why this virus would be so different from all the others that DO provide immunity. What other viruses don't provide immunity?
What about the common cold?

[jebartle]

Update....19,000 cases, 2,200 deaths, back to the drawing board.

[GoodLife]

Update....19,000 cases, 2,200 deaths, back to the drawing board.

Death rate per million in Sweden still much lower than USA

Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-04-26)

[GoodLife]

As of this morning, the number of virus deaths in Sweden is twice the number of deaths in Florida. Five times as many have died in Sweden as in Denmark, which closed things down. Ten times as many have died in Sweden as in Norway, it’s closest neighbor, which isolated even more effectively than did Denmark.

I guess we will find out if the Swedes quickly achieve herd immunity. I hope they do. I hope we do!

The business angle is a very serious question. Things are not going to simply restart and return to normal. Only after businesses try to restart and do it for a few months will we know the effect on the worldwide economy. For example, I have a close friend who is a director of a major European bank and based in New York City. The CEO says employees will no longer have to come to the office in New York if it makes them uncomfortable. If employees want to come to the office, they can come only one day a week. (My friend says no way she is going back to the New York office—she’ll work from home.) Conferences in person will no longer be allowed. Flying to meet with clients will no longer be allowed. How will that affect the country? Well, for a few things, just for this bank, several thousand business-class flights won’t be made—every week. A thousand nights in expensive big city hotels will not be booked—every week. Several thousand meals in very expensive restaurants won’t be purchased—every week. This means tough times for airlines and thousands of airline employees, hotels and thousands of hotel employees, taxis and thousand of drivers, restaurants and thousands of employees. It means a huge drop in transportation and hotel and restaurant taxes that support many large cities with lots of business and tourism. My friend’s bank expects this to continue until vaccines are available and given to nearly everyone and until there are antiviral drugs developed and available. (And don’t expect new antiviral drugs to be cheap. Some are $12 per pill, but one recommended drug is $118,000 per weekly dose.)

So we may decide that Sweden did the right thing and saved its economy, while our panic destroyed ours. Would it be better to take the chance on two to ten times as many deaths? Tough question. Are you willing to lose your own life, your spouse’s, your son’s, your daughter’s, your grandchild’s?

First case of covid 19 in Florida Was March 2. Sweden's first case was January 24, so they are further along the curve.

[nikonuser1]

The problems with the process followed in Sweden are complicated. Sweden, like most other European countries, depends heavily on tourism. Even if Sweden reaches the the herd immunity what happens to the tourists who arrive there? What happens if Swedish tourists come to the USA, or any other country? Will all of those tourists carry the virus back home?

[ALadysMom]

Vaccines may never be available. There isn’t one for the common cold—another coronavirus—so why should we assume one will be forthcoming for COVID-19?

Witnessing people’s responses to this pandemic has been very intriguing. Liberals seem to want hard-line rules enforced while conservatives seem to want to maintain civil liberties and freedom of choice. Liberals have previously loved to point to Sweden as if they have superior, more learned systems of taxation, governance and healthcare EXCEPT regarding their no-lockdown handling of Coronavirus. Isn’t it a bit ironic?

Everyone will get infected. We don’t have immunity and we don’t have a vaccine. It’s really a question of when and how badly. Effective treatments are the best hope to help those who will get severely ill.

Somehow our original goal of “slowing the spread” has morphed into avoidance of infection indefinitely which is not possible.

Why aren’t the most important statistics routinely reported— especially in central Florida—the current utilization rate of hospital beds, intensive care beds, and ventilators. Not overwhelming our healthcare system is the goal we have all sacrificed to achieve. How are we doing? And these stats are less open to interpretation than are the statistics involving (cause of) deaths or even numbers of infections since some who died were not diagnosed and many who are diagnosed don’t require hospitalization. The most important thing everyone wants to know is whether help (healthcare capacity) is available if you need it.

[Velvet]

Vaccines may never be available. There isn’t one for the common cold—another coronavirus—so why should we assume one will be forthcoming for COVID-10.

Everyone will get infected. We don’t have immunity and we don’t have a vaccine. It’s really a question of when and how badly. Effective treatments are the best hope to help those who will get severely ill.

Somehow our original goal of “slowing the spread” has morphed into avoidance of infection indefinitely which is not possible.



Please do not despair!
Vaccine already working but need testing on different people and whether feasible to produce in very large quantities. Just google vaccine updates.

[chet2020]

Sweden is not a perfect model. Someone came up with the clever idea of using the Open Table reservation system as a rough measure of social distancing. In the second week of March 2020, restaurant resos were down 40% in Stockholm from the same week one year earlier. The restaurants are open, but business is down and many are struggling to survive. The Swedish gov't did not require social distancing, but Swedes are social distancing nonetheless. The Swedish economy overall is not doing great. GDP for the year is estimated to decline 3.6% this year, according to the Swedish Finance ministry, which is worse than the U.S. If you think the Swedish approach to the crisis is a panacea, think again. Link - American Enterprise Inst.

Sweden’s coronavirus results don’t make the case for reopening the American economy | American Enterprise Institute - AEI (https://www.aei.org/economics/international-economics/swedens-coronavirus-results-dont-make-the-case-for-reopening-the-american-economy/)

[sallybowron]

It doesn’t look like herd immunity is ever going to happen, just dead people. The WHO said there is no evidence at this time that antibodies prevent you from catching Covid-19 again.

My son is a doctor in Minneapolis. We were talking to him today as he was called off because with the suspension of all elective surgeries there are not enough patients n the hospitals to warrant all the docs who were scheduled. He did say that they will have to cancel their trip down here in June to celebrate our fiftieth anniversary because his practice has told them all there can be no travel in June. While I am disappointed, I am also glad that their "little Germ factories" Won't be bringing us the virus. When he tells us of all the people at the hospitals who are working extra hours I offer up prayers for them. Please join me in these prayers, it is more than just nurses. :pray:

[sallybowron]

And this too will pass!

Vaccine in a year or so......
I think the bottom line is that we don't want to "pass" with it. A vaccine in a year to 18 months will be too late for many people our ages.
:ohdear::ohdear::ohdear::ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

[Two Bills]

Coronavirus: New Zealand claims no community cases as lockdown eases - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52436658)

[golfing eagles]

Is there any evidence that getting coronavirus DOES NOT provide immunity? Have people gotten it twice? And, I'm not understanding why this virus would be so different from all the others that DO provide immunity. What other viruses don't provide immunity?

Many. You can start with the common cold (because there are thousands of strains) and HIV (because it exhibits antigenic mutagenicity and mimicry)

[graciegirl]

Many. You can start with the common cold (because there are thousands of strains) and HIV (because it exhibits antigenic mutagenicity and mimicry)

Thank you. I looked up both of them, and again my medical knowledge increased. It is so good to have two medical doctors as frequent posters on this forum.

For some reason I can say thank you by clicking on the bottom with a plus sign to some posters and some posts and others I cannot because there is no plus sign. Does anyone know how that works?

[Travelhunter]

So instead of dying like you did this time, you only..

hm, no that won't work will it?

Okay so instead of you being intubated and barely recovering, and being traumatized for the rest of whatever is left of your now-shortened life, you merely...

might end up dying afterall because the previous bout left you with scarring on your ravaged lungs, and any new illness that effects your lungs might kill you.

Hm, again.
Well said

[Travelhunter]

Updated Saturday April 25, 2020

WHO:
"There is no evidence yet that people who have had Covid-19 will not get a second infection," WHO said in a scientific brief published Friday.”

That is crystal clear to me... no room for trying to explain it away. Do I want to hear that? Of course not!

There is so much conflicting, and rapidly changing data. I don’t know what to believe