Lack of info on how other countries are doing after lifting their lockdowns

[LiverpoolWalrus]

With all the hand-wringing going on fearing the worst after we reopen the economy, it seems to me it could be beneficial to focus like a laser beam on the experience of other countries. China, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy and Spain have all locked down. They were hit hard but eventually lifted their restrictions, or are in the process of doing so now.

I would think the media would report on how those countries are doing, but I'm not hearing or reading much of anything and there's very little information about this on the internet, that I've been able to find anyway. Our outcome should be similar to theirs, so where is the curiosity about how they're doing? We can learn a lot from these countries, and perhaps mitigate our fears...or substantiate them if lifting the restrictions is backfiring.

The media give the people what they want, so my guess is the American populace doesn't care too much about how the other hard hit countries have fared. Perhaps we would rather just worry and assume the worst?

[billethkid]

We get what the media wants us to have.....
And the silent majority goes along....

[Bogie Shooter]

Here are a few:
How European Countries Are Lifting Coronavirus Restrictions | Time (https://time.com/5822470/countries-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-europe/)
Iran begins lifting restrictions after brief virus lockdown (https://news.yahoo.com/iran-begins-lifting-restrictions-brief-110501314.html)
Coronavirus | Coronavirus: Belgium lockdown lift a guide for Spain, UK and Germany - AS.com (https://en.as.com/en/2020/04/25/other_sports/1587820373_314023.html)
Sicily will pay half the price of tourists' flights and a third of their hotel bill to lure holidayers back | MEAWW (https://meaww.com/sicily-holidaymakers-tourism-boost-discount-flights-coronavirus-lockdown)

[ficoguy]

Sweden has developed herd immunity.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Here are a few:
How European Countries Are Lifting Coronavirus Restrictions | Time (https://time.com/5822470/countries-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-europe/)
Iran begins lifting restrictions after brief virus lockdown (https://news.yahoo.com/iran-begins-lifting-restrictions-brief-110501314.html)
Coronavirus | Coronavirus: Belgium lockdown lift a guide for Spain, UK and Germany - AS.com (https://en.as.com/en/2020/04/25/other_sports/1587820373_314023.html)
Sicily will pay half the price of tourists' flights and a third of their hotel bill to lure holidayers back | MEAWW (https://meaww.com/sicily-holidaymakers-tourism-boost-discount-flights-coronavirus-lockdown)

Thanks Bogie. I read all four of them and none discuss the after effect of lifting their restrictions. Strange that they don't and stranger still that we as Americans citizens are not trying to find out.

[npwalters]

Like you, I have wondered what their experience is. Perhaps it's too soon to tell. More likely, the phased reopening is going OK and the press just downplays and ignores anything that isn't gloom and doom.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

My money's on your second hunch NP. But judging by social mania, there doesn't seem to be much interest in learning from other countries' experience. Has anyone ever mentioned it on this board? I did about a week ago and it quickly dropped into oblivion. Are we that influenced by the media that we only talk about what they talk about?

[Bogie Shooter]

Thanks Bogie. I read all four of them and none discusses the after effect of lifting their restrictions. Strange that they don't and stranger still that we as Americans citizens are not trying to find out.

In some cases may be too soon.

[Bjeanj]

I would guess that by going to a newspaper for that nation, one could see what they’re saying.

Coronavirus: 931 new cases, of which 15 are S'poreans and PRs; experts say too early to say S'pore has turned corner, Health News & Top Stories - The Straits Times (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-931-new-cases-in-singapore-of-whom-15-are-singaporeans-and-prs)
Vice health minister warns against loosening attitudes in combating coronavirus (http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200426000103&np=1&mp=1)

[blueash]

Thanks Bogie. I read all four of them and none discusses the after effect of lifting their restrictions. Strange that they don't and stranger still that we as Americans citizens are not trying to find out.

Your question is reasonable. And the TIME article tells you the answer. None of the countries has lifted restrictions. Some have eased restrictions and only in the last week. As you certainly know the incubation period is up to 2 weeks and then there is a delay between first symptoms and disease progression to the point a person may be sick enough to be tested, then longer until death. So it will take at least 3 weeks from any relaxation to know if it is causing a rebound. And 3 weeks out will only tell you something about that specific relaxation, not complete abandonment of restrictions.

The answer is NOT that the media is hiding information from anyone. It is too soon both from the timing and the mild loosening of restrictions. Patience grasshopper.

[blueash]

Sweden has developed herd immunity.

This is not true. I will leave it up to those interested in using Google to see who is a reliable poster.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Your question is reasonable. And the TIME article tells you the answer. None of the countries has lifted restrictions. Some have eased restrictions and only in the last week. As you certainly know the incubation period is up to 2 weeks and then there is a delay between first symptoms and disease progression to the point a person may be sick enough to be tested, then longer until death. So it will take at least 3 weeks from any relaxation to know if it is causing a rebound. And 3 weeks out will only tell you something about that specific relaxation, not complete abandonment of restrictions.

The answer is NOT that the media is hiding information from anyone. It is too soon both from the timing and the mild loosening of restrictions. Patience grasshopper.

Thanks for your input, Blueash. I'm on the fence about lifting restrictions anytime soon (or rather "easing" them as the other countries have done, as you correctly point out). I can see the pros and cons of both sides. But I'm thinking it would be prudent to wait for some good data from those countries before we proceed.

I would just like to avoid additional large scale suffering and giving the critics an opportunity to say something like many more people are dying because of poor judgment and incompetence. We should have waited just a few more weeks to see how the other countries turn out first.

Our nation usually does a better job of planning than this, in my opinion.

[DAN48]

If anyone is hoping to hear this on TV, don't bother! The so-called "news" is repetitive opinion squeezed in between endless commercials.

[Labanz]

You must go outside the normal American news outlets and get your news from international news organizations, start with BBC and then search the internet or YouTube for more specific countries.

[crash]

With all the hand-wringing going on fearing the worst after we reopen the economy, it seems to me it could be beneficial to focus like a laser beam on the experience of other countries. China, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy and Spain have all locked down. They were hit hard but eventually lifted their restrictions, or are in the process of doing so now.

I would think the media would report on how those countries are doing, but I'm not hearing or reading much of

anything and there's very little information about this on the internet, that I've been able to find anyway. Our outcome should be similar to theirs, so where is the curiosity about how they're doing? We can learn a lot from these countries, and perhaps mitigate our fears...or substantiate them if lifting the restrictions is backfiring.

The media give the people what they want, so my guess is the American populace doesn't care too much about how the other hard hit countries have fared. Perhaps we would rather just worry and assume the worst?

China is going into another lock down of another city having a second wave.

[chipd331]

In the 1918 Flu pandemic Snt. Louis quarantined and shut down schools etc. they had a lower death rate than most other parts of the country. After the peak of deaths they lifted the quarantines, within one month the death rate doubled, going even higher than the first peak.
Until we have a vaccine, it's going to just keep going around




















































Thanks for your input, Blueash. I'm on the fence about lifting restrictions anytime soon (or rather "easing" them as the other countries have done, as you correctly point out). I can see the pros and cons of both sides. But I'm thinking it would be prudent to wait for some good data from those countries before we proceed.

I would just like to avoid additional large scale suffering and giving the critics an opportunity to say something like many more people are dying because of poor judgment and incompetence. We should have waited just a few more weeks to see how the other countries turn out first.

Our nation usually does a better job of planning than this, in my opinion.

[kenoc7]

Thanks Bogie. I read all four of them and none discuss the after effect of lifting their restrictions. Strange that they don't and stranger still that we as Americans citizens are not trying to find out.

There hasn't been enough time to see effects yet. Watch for spikes in about two weeks.

[greg.turay]

I have seen multiple web sites that Italy and Spain are both level 4 places and also the countries are closed to international tourists until the end of the year or beyond.

[WindyCityzen]

Depends what media you follow. I’m seeing plenty of info about other countries and the US is NOT comparing favorably.

[billethkid]

I have seen multiple web sites that Italy and Spain are both level 4 places and also the countries are closed to international tourists until the end of the year or beyond.

Unfortunately for Florida the powers that be in Tallahassee will be anxious to get the tourists back here ASAP....i.e. the tolerance for spring break beach goers!!!

[HeyGeorge]

Sweden has developed herd immunity.
No lockdown! And the Swedes are doing fine

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

This is not true. I will leave it up to those interested in using Google to see who is a reliable poster.

I agree. It's still not known whether one develops an immunity after have the virus. We don't develop immunity after having influenza why do people think this is going to be different?

[cheweycat]

Shouldn’t our White House corona virus task force be talking about this?

[jimjamuser]

Sweden has developed herd immunity.
The CV curves for Sweden and the UK are going up. Not so for Denmark and Norway.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Depends what media you follow. I’m seeing plenty of info about other countries and the US is NOT comparing favorably.

"I have seen multiple web sites that Italy and Spain are both level 4 places and also the countries are closed to international tourists until the end of the year or beyond."

Thanks for the input. This is not about "other countries" in the general sense. Yes, there's an abundance of information out there about other countries. The topic is the health effects in countries that have eased restrictions, i.e., the health consequences of relaxing lockdowns.

For instance, according to a Reuters article on 4/21, Iran reopened stores and lower risk businesses on 4/20. Poland reopened stores, beaches and parks on 4/19. Austria reopened stores on 4/14. Reports of their success in continuing to keep the virus at bay (or not) after taking these actions are highly anticipated to those of us who feel their experience can be instructive for our country.

[Dana1963]

It is better to worry about your own country than others we are a large and diverse area of the world

[Two Bills]

The CV curves for Sweden and the UK are going up. Not so for Denmark and Norway.

Actually we are pretty much at the top of the curve.
But.
It seems probable now that UK will have the most deaths in Europe, per cases and population.
Our experts dithered at the outbreak with which way to go, herd immunity, or lockdown.
By the time lockdown was agreed, the virus was well established.
Hence our very high death rate per number of cases.
Lack of testing nationwide, and lack of protective clothing in nursing homes has not helped.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

It is better to worry about your own country than others we are a large and diverse area of the world

When someone says other countries' experience can be instructive for OUR country, are they not concerned for our own country?

[2newyorkers]

I have cousins in Brittany and Normandy France. There current stay home order is until May 11th.

[graciegirl]

Just saw this headline from CNN about Germany;

Germans face fines of up to $5,000 as wearing a face mask becomes mandatory (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/germans-face-fines-of-up-to-dollar5000-as-wearing-a-face-mask-becomes-mandatory/ar-BB13hfze?ocid=spartandhp)

[themartianchick]

Sweden has developed herd immunity.

That is a claim that Sweden has made but it doesn't really fit with the science. There is no proof that having had the COVID-19 virus actually makes you immune to getting it again as a full-blown (or even asymptomatic) illness. There have been some people in other countries who have gotten it a second time. They are just as contagious the 2nd time around and can spread it to others, especially if they don't take precautions and re-quarantine.

[M2inOR]

There are English news sources that have alternate news:

On YouTube there are live and recorded news stations: BBC, France 24 Live, DW English (Germany), Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and CBC/CTV (Canada) to name a few. Most are free.

Not only covering their own countries, but also their perspective of what conditions are in reports on other countries.

Just takes time and effort. No one source covers all aspects.

[npwalters]

That is a claim that Sweden has made but it doesn't really fit with the science. There is no proof that having had the COVID-19 virus actually makes you immune to getting it again as a full-blown (or even asymptomatic) illness. There have been some people in other countries who have gotten it a second time. They are just as contagious the 2nd time around and can spread it to others, especially if they don't take precautions and re-quarantine.

The science actually suggests that some people recovered and then showed symptoms again. Here is a piece from US Health and there are several other valid sources.

South Korea recently reported that a significant number of people with COVID-19Trusted Source have tested positive, then tested negative, only to test positive and experience symptoms, like fever, cough, sore throat, and fatigue, again.

Health officials in South Korea say it’s unlikely these patients got reinfected with COVID-19 a second time since they’re testing positive for a second time so soon, but rather that some people with COVID-19 may be experiencing a viral reactivation.

Health experts in the United States don’t think a reactivation of COVID-19 is likely since we’ve never observed viral reactivation in other coronaviruses.

It could very well be that the virus never left their system. It lingered, and they were never fully cured of the disease, and that’s what the subsequent COVID-19 tests are catching.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says we don’t have enough evidence to understand if and why some people may experience reactivation after recovery.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Thanks Bogie. I read all four of them and none discuss the after effect of lifting their restrictions. Strange that they don't and stranger still that we as Americans citizens are not trying to find out.you want to know what’s going on around the world , get off the internet for a while read the South China Morning Post , the London times or Mirror , the Jerusalem Post anyone of the different newspapers in Africa or South America you don’t have to read ever line, but you’ll get a better vision of the whole world , not just about the virus but about everything and you will find many different views that allow youn to form your own views I’ve always been amazed if it’s on the internet it’s true if it’s in the paper it’s fake . Journalists die all over the world for speaking the truth , while many of the so called internet reporters endanger them selves by consuming to much Red Bull and Twinkie’s in there mom’s garage

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Update: Five new cases in Wuhan, the city of about 11M people where the virus originated, according to yesterday's Reuters report. Only five cases after lifting the lockdown about a month ago - an isolated cluster at that. Zero would be better, but five doesn't seem nearly as bad as a lot of people here are expecting.

Excerpt: "BEIJING (Reuters) - Wuhan reported its first cluster of coronavirus infections since a lockdown on the city, the epicentre of the outbreak in China, was lifted a month ago, stoking concerns of a wider resurgence. The five new confirmed cases, all from the same residential compound, come amid efforts to ease restrictions across China as businesses restart and individuals get back to work...New confirmed cases reported in China since April have been low compared with the thousands every day in February."

China's Wuhan reports first coronavirus cluster since lockdown lifted - Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll-idUSKBN22N02F)

It's not clear if this is the first instance of *any* new cases since the end of the lockdown, or if this is the first instance of a "cluster."

South Korea seemed to be doing fairly well after lifting the restrictions until that one nightclub patron spread the virus to 86 other people.

South Korea Delays School Reopeningas New Coronavirus Cases Rise (https://www.seoulnews.net/news/265034081/south-korea-delays-school-reopeningas-new-coronavirus-cases-rise)

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Denmark might be onto something, according to their top infectious disease specialist. Thanks GoodLife.

Second coronavirus wave unlikely in Denmark: top expert (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-coronavirus-denmark-expert.html?deviceType=desktop)

[600th Photo Sq]

With all the hand-wringing going on fearing the worst after we reopen the economy, it seems to me it could be beneficial to focus like a laser beam on the experience of other countries. China, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy and Spain have all locked down. They were hit hard but eventually lifted their restrictions, or are in the process of doing so now.

I would think the media would report on how those countries are doing, but I'm not hearing or reading much of anything and there's very little information about this on the internet, that I've been able to find anyway. Our outcome should be similar to theirs, so where is the curiosity about how they're doing? We can learn a lot from these countries, and perhaps mitigate our fears...or substantiate them if lifting the restrictions is backfiring.

The media give the people what they want, so my guess is the American populace doesn't care too much about how the other hard hit countries have fared. Perhaps we would rather just worry and assume the worst?

Unlike for example the United Kingdom, they have various newspapers who favor the Conservatives or Labor parties. Mirror, Telegraph, Daily Mail, Guardian etc.

However, they pretty much are in agreement on their reporting and tell the truth regarding Covid 19.

Unfortunately not so much here the media have an agenda, plain and simple are not truthful in their reporting of Covid 19. :ohdear:

[GoodLife]

That is a claim that Sweden has made but it doesn't really fit with the science. There is no proof that having had the COVID-19 virus actually makes you immune to getting it again as a full-blown (or even asymptomatic) illness. There have been some people in other countries who have gotten it a second time. They are just as contagious the 2nd time around and can spread it to others, especially if they don't take precautions and re-quarantine.

You must have missed this comment I made recently:

1. Virtually everyone who recovers from the disease produces antibodies within 3 weeks and epidemiologists are confident this will provide immunity from the disease (time undetermined at this point) In the SARS epidemic, also a coronavirus, recovered patients were found to have an average of 2 years immunity. We only have a few months experience with covid 19 but these scientists found that 99.5% of all recovered patients developed antibodies.

After Recovery From the Coronavirus, Most People Carry Antibodies - The New York Times

Page Not Found | medRxiv (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...613v1.full.pdf)

2. Another part of the same study found that the “reinfected” patients in Asia probably weren’t reinfected at all. People who were still testing positive weeks after recovery likely didn’t have any live virus left in their system; what was being picked up in testing were the remnants of dead virus whose genome was still present. Researchers in South Korea who conducted a separate study came to that conclusion as well

[billethkid]

Let us all hope and pray that common sense prevails if and or when there is any increase of new cases.

The shutting down again of all America is not the answer. As cruel as it may come across there will have to be a level of acceptance of the levels of infection just as there is for the flu, many other life threatening causes.....including death by driving.

What we have going for us now is the medical community has had a major wake up call and should be more prepared. (let us pray).

[LiverpoolWalrus]

As cruel as it may come across there will have to be a level of acceptance of the levels of infection just as there is for the flu, many other life threatening causes.....including death by driving.

You hit the nail on the head with that one statement right there. That is the purple elephant in the room most are afraid to acknowledge. Nobody wants this reality and our leaders certainly cannot verbally admit this. It's cruel but it's reality.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

I'll continue to post reports as I come across them and welcome anyone else to do the same.

Seems there's been a resurgence in Iran unfortunately, partly attributed to crowded subways and a failure to maintain distance and wear masks.

Iran Sees New Surge in Virus Cases After Reopening Country - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/world/middleeast/iran-coronavirus-surge.html?referringSource=articleShare)

[graciegirl]

With all the hand-wringing going on fearing the worst after we reopen the economy, it seems to me it could be beneficial to focus like a laser beam on the experience of other countries. China, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy and Spain have all locked down. They were hit hard but eventually lifted their restrictions, or are in the process of doing so now.

I would think the media would report on how those countries are doing, but I'm not hearing or reading much of anything and there's very little information about this on the internet, that I've been able to find anyway. Our outcome should be similar to theirs, so where is the curiosity about how they're doing? We can learn a lot from these countries, and perhaps mitigate our fears...or substantiate them if lifting the restrictions is backfiring.

The media give the people what they want, so my guess is the American populace doesn't care too much about how the other hard hit countries have fared. Perhaps we would rather just worry and assume the worst?

Our daughter and son in law are still sheltering in place in London. She said they are rule followers over there. She is glad we are taking it seriously.

[JimJohnson]

Easy.
Follow the advice and instructions of the medical community and you will Live.
Follow the advice of so called political leaders and you will die.

[mulligan]

But seriously, all those news sources from the source that was hidden for months. How much can you trust information that comes from people that eat dinner with sticks.
???

[tvbound]

Easy.
Follow the advice and instructions of the medical community and you will Live.
Follow the advice of so called political leaders and you will die.

Rely on science, from trained scientists, instead of hunches from celebrities? Where's the adventure and chance of being seen as a tough guy in that? I'm sending thoughts, prayers and Clorox to the hunch follower's.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Easy.
Follow the advice and instructions of the medical community and you will Live.
Follow the advice of so called political leaders and you will die.

Isn't that just a little bit of an exaggeration? For anyone that gets infected with the virus, they have a 98% chance of surviving. For the general population, we all have somewhere around a 99.5% of surviving. Regardless of whose advice we follow.

[Bay Kid]

Never seen so many TV doctors. Every network have their experts to tell the people how they want you to act. Can't believe most of what is pushed on us.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Here's some good news from a health policy analyst.

Excerpt: "...the states that have started to reopen their economies, allowing crowds to take to beaches and bars, haven't seen a significant increase in the number of new coronavirus infections. 'I’m not convinced we’re going to have a notable uptick in cases for the virus' among protesters, Meekins said. 'We have weeks of states reopening, and we haven’t seen the surge we expected.'"

Will the protests lead to a spike in coronavirus cases? That depends - MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-protests-lead-to-a-spike-in-coronavirus-cases-that-depends-2020-06-03)