The BIG question

[tvbound]

Recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of June or wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by Glenview and Sabel Chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466A (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated.

[villagetinker]

Some articles I saw recently indicated prices were holding steady (nationally), which I cannot believe. I think there was an article recently that we were doing better. I am waiting for the next shoe to drop, the high (very high) unemployment and the associated secondary effects. There have been several articles indicting we are in (or will be very shortly) a recession.
So here is what I think, if you are buying for profit you should probably wait to see what happens, if you are buying for enjoyment, life is too short, go for it.

[retiredguy123]

Buy at the end of June. Look for a house that has been on the market for more than 30 days, and make an offer. Housing values and appreciation have been too high over the past 5 years. Way more than the inflation rate.

[tvbound]

Some articles I saw recently indicated prices were holding steady (nationally), which I cannot believe. I think there was an article recently that we were doing better. I am waiting for the next shoe to drop, the high (very high) unemployment and the associated secondary effects. There have been several articles indicting we are in (or will be very shortly) a recession.
So here is what I think, if you are buying for profit you should probably wait to see what happens, if you are buying for enjoyment, life is too short, go for it.Thanks for your thoughts.

I agree about the potential for a recession, which is the only reason we haven't already bought. In fact, instead of just paying cash for the house we are also thinking of taking out a partial mortgage in case the stock market tanks big time, which that extra money could then be invested. That would give us even more money to play with, so the kids will have a bigger inheritance when the time comes. Particularly since home mortgages are at record lows right now and it wouldn't take much return from stocks, to come out way ahead in the long run going in that direction.

This will definitely be our last home and as we heard many times from the full-time residents when we rented, I guess that will officially make us "frogs."

[Bogie Shooter]

I still have one of those Magic 8 Balls. Not even it could answer your question :icon_wink:

[karostay]

I still have one of those Magic 8 Balls. Not even it could answer your question :icon_wink:

My Ouija board couldn't either

[tvbound]

Some articles I saw recently indicated prices were holding steady (nationally), which I cannot believe. I think there was an article recently that we were doing better. I am waiting for the next shoe to drop, the high (very high) unemployment and the associated secondary effects. There have been several articles indicting we are in (or will be very shortly) a recession.
So here is what I think, if you are buying for profit you should probably wait to see what happens, if you are buying for enjoyment, life is too short, go for it.

Yeah, thinking about a large recession is what's weighing on our minds.

Although this will be our last home and that will make us one of those frog couples we met when renting have told us about, it might also be an opportunity to invest when the markets are substantially down.

Which has us also thinking about taking out a partial mortgage instead of paying all cash, given the interest rates are so low and the extra money could then go into stocks as a bonus for the kids when that time comes.

Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts.

[VApeople]

I think it is better to "wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages".

I think a lot of people are living in a dream world and they pretend everything will be back to normal in a few weeks. By November they will accept the facts of life and not be so eager to make a large purchase like a car or a house. That may lead to a decrease in prices.

[rustyp]

Recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of June or wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by Glenview and Sabel Chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466A (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated.

FYI Real estate traditionally lags the stock market by quite a while. Example - Market bottomed 2009 The Villages property values bottomed Jan 2012.

[dewilson58]

You have the funds, you find the house..............BUY IT.

[tvbound]

I think it is better to "wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages".

I think a lot of people are living in a dream world and they pretend everything will be back to normal in a few weeks. By November they will accept the facts of life and not be so eager to make a large purchase like a car or a house. That may lead to a decrease in prices.

That is the way we are leaning right now. I guess the next 30 days or so, will tell if opening things up now was a good idea or takes us back close to the starting line.

[Ronnie61]

By the time November rolls around a lot of people don’t put their homes on the market because they’re renting them if they haven’t sold them by then ...so then you wait till the following year to see what is put up for sale after the high season of rentals. My advice would be to buy now. You’re not going to get some bargain basement just because you wait till November. It won’t make much difference in price ...this is gonna be a short term downturn in the economy and it’ll be back....

[tvbound]

You have the funds, you find the house..............BUY IT.

For us, there is no such thing as "the house."

We actually currently rent where we are now, having sold last year a large, beautiful home that not much here can touch, so we're moving for the lifestyle (and warmer weather), not the house.

In other words, we have already seen a number of homes that we could easily live with, so finding something acceptable will not be a problem for us.

[dewilson58]

For us, there is no such thing as "the house."

We actually currently rent where we are now, having sold last year a large, beautiful home that not much here can touch, so we're moving for the lifestyle (and warmer weather), not the house.

In other words, we have already seen a number of homes that we could easily live with, so finding something acceptable will not be a problem for us.


My point is Nike.................Jus Do It.

[karostay]

for us, there is no such thing as "the house."

we actually currently rent where we are now, having sold last year a large, beautiful home that not much here can touch, so we're moving for the lifestyle (and warmer weather), not the house.

In other words, we have already seen a number of homes that we could easily live with, so finding something acceptable will not be a problem for us.

whoooo hooooo !

[Velvet]

I don’t see why house prices would decrease in TV because of the virus. The same number of people still need to live somewhere. Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place. We did not lose any significant number of people to death. The place is one of the safest from crime and virus in the country. In a few months all the fun will be back our amenities can buy. A lot of people will still need to retire from all over. People are chomping at the bit to rent or own here. So why would the home prices in TV decrease?

[retiredguy123]

I don’t see why house prices would decrease in TV because of the virus. The same number of people still need to live somewhere. Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place. We did not lose any significant number of people to death. The place is one of the safest from crime and virus in the country. In a few months all the fun will be back our amenities can buy. A lot of people will still need to retire from all over. People are chomping at the bit to rent or own here. So why would the home prices in TV decrease?
I think they will decrease because they are artifically high as compared to 5 years ago. Why would a house that cost $400K in 2015 be worth $600-650K in 2020? The inflation rate is nowhere near that high. Also, potential buyers have lost money in their investments, and they will not be willing to spend as much on a house, especially when the future is so uncertain. So, I believe that sellers will need to accept a lower profit on their house. But, nobody really knows.

[Koapaka]

I think they will decrease because they are artifically high as compared to 5 years ago. Why would a house that cost $400K in 2015 be worth $600-650K in 2020? The inflation rate is nowhere near that high. Also, potential buyers have lost money in their investments, and they will not be willing to spend as much on a house, especially when the future is so uncertain. So, I believe that sellers will need to accept a lower profit on their house. But, nobody really knows.

This PLUS the fact as some owners pass on, their families/estates that will inherit the place will probably want to liquidate.
Facts are MOST folks here will not be "looking to have to live somewhere else" when their home becomes vacant. For those of us living in age restricted communities, this is just a fact of life. We bought at the high end of the market, but for us it is irrelevant, as what is left to the kiddos is left to the kiddos, be it more or less. We bought what we wanted and will enjoy until it becomes an estate asset for our kids. I too would wait and catch the wave action, UNLESS you want to move down and enjoy now specifically, and then the option is yours to enjoy based on desire. None of us is promised tomorrow.

[npwalters]

I have noticed more houses on the market north of 466A than previously. I have NO data to back that observation up but it seems that way to me.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

I’ve own 14 new homes , I would never put more then 20% down even if I planned on staying in a house , use the money for whatever else you choose, let the house go up in value even during a downtime your house will eventually turn a profit.

[tophcfa]

IF I was in your shoes, I would wait this out.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I don’t see why house prices would decrease in TV because of the virus. The same number of people still need to live somewhere. Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place. We did not lose any significant number of people to death. The place is one of the safest from crime and virus in the country. In a few months all the fun will be back our amenities can buy. A lot of people will still need to retire from all over. People are chomping at the bit to rent or own here. So why would the home prices in TV decrease?

There are always two sides to every economic valuation, supply and demand. You are only looking at the demand side of the equation. There is also the supply side

Current Demand issues:
The simplifying assumption of "Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place." may not quite hold up as thought. Most people relocating are coming from an existing job. Potential retirees laid off unexpectedly, and have to draw down their nest egg/potential down payment, which will reduce the potential demand on the size of the house. Current house prices are falling, albeit slowly at the moment, so people wanting a certain price on their existing home to move will have to wait longer. Current housing sales are slower, so if the potential TV retiree can't sell their house as quickly as anticipated, sales will slow in TV, causing the developer cash flow issues.

Current Supply / Developer issues:
The developer has had quite a few custom homes purchasers back out of the contractor, forfeiting their deposit. There are houses owned by the developer down $75K from the initial sale price. The developer is paying interest or forgoing future home development on the unsold, high end house just sitting there.

Finally, some people are conflating recent past housing sales trends with future sales trends. No doubt the housing sales / pricing / demand in the future from the virus will be affected by the economic recovery, or lack of one. We are effectively only two months into the lockdown created recession, and the economic effects are really yet to be understood. Most recent housing sales trend reports haven't been effected by the virus due to the purchase to loan cycle being one to two months and primarily centered around employment changes. Some banks are now pulling out of the housing loan markets due to the uncertainty of the fiscal support and the uncertainty of the recession.

So although the last housing cycle bust was 10 years ago, this event is completely outside the banking industry failures and self inflicted collapse, so the recovery will be completely different than 2008-2009, as will the depth of the collapse, if there is one.

Keep an open mind and adapt to the changing economics, which may be hard to do outside the industry.

sportsguy's opinion

[RoadToad]

If you are ready to occupy the new home, you should buy and move in.
You would "profit" by not wasting rent output of thousands (assuming you are renting as posh as you imply you were living) per month.

[retiredguy123]

I would just point out that the entire U.S. economy is collapsing. The Government has already spent $3 trillion to try to hold it together. Why wouldn't house prices in The Villages decline? Buying a house in this economy is risky.

[rlcooper70]

If you listen to the "experts" we are about to enter either a recession or a mini-depression with 20-25% unemployment and a drop in GDP of 20%. Does that sound like a time to buy? Or would you take a chance on waiting until the markets have a chance to digest what is said to be coming?

You are looking to buy a pre-owned house. The only question is whether someone will be selling. I'd take a chance and buy after the reality of this economic situation hits people.

[jrm4081@juno.com]

We live on Day Lily Run in the V. of Duval. We have quick access to both Brownwood and Lake Sumter. The house is a Gardenia, in great condition without too much done so you can do your own decorating. It is on the lower end because the people have purchased another smaller place. The address is 2652 Day Lily Run. The neighborhood is fantastic socially and all of the homes are $$$. The asking price is $324+.

[stadry]

if rusty's correct, there's still a drop coming in home $$,,, i think the same - rising tides lift all boats & the opposite's also true

[tjboxer79]

Normally there would be a price reduction during the summer, but after quarantining in this event, anyone close to retirement will do so and there will be a ton of people looking to get out of major cities...looking to buy in FLA. and likely here. I think the demand may outstrip supply, do prices go up...substantially. This guess will be enhanced if there is social unrest.

[davem4616]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I agree about the potential for a recession, which is the only reason we haven't already bought. In fact, instead of just paying cash for the house we are also thinking of taking out a partial mortgage in case the stock market tanks big time, which that extra money could then be invested. That would give us even more money to play with, so the kids will have a bigger inheritance when the time comes. Particularly since home mortgages are at record lows right now and it wouldn't take much return from stocks, to come out way ahead in the long run going in that direction.

This will definitely be our last home and as we heard many times from the full-time residents when we rented, I guess that will officially make us "frogs."


Wow, you are still willing to do without so that your adult kids will have an inheritance???

I invite you to move on to the next phase of life...live your life...your job raising the kids is over

We put all 5 through college on our dime, bought them cars, paid for the weddings, helped them get on their own feet....job done! Actually made a new house rule that kids are welcome for dinner anytime, but only grandchildren can sleep over...they laughed, but didn't push back

Our 5 know that IF there is anything left after we've enjoyed having the best possible time of our lives anything remaining is theirs...but they'd rather listen to the stories we tell them about our adventures


now, new vs. preowned in TV

Many of the 'pre-owned' homes are in great shape, however many will require substantial $$$ to renovate. Having contracted for renovations in FL and in the northeast I will say that there is no comparison...things are really different in FL (and not always in a good way so be very careful choosing a contractor in FL)

If you go new you're also going to spend money...we went new designer home and have spent 50K in upgrades with local contractors over the past 3 years

We had a small mortgage when we 1st bought here....once we no longer were itemizing our taxes we just paid it off...okay so cash reserves went down, however monthly expenses also went down

Nobody can predict the future with accuracy, however in the past home prices in TV seem to be insulated to an extend from what was going on everywhere else

Good luck...you've got some serious decisions to make...I hope it all works out for you

[Travelhunter]

Recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of June or wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by Glenview and Sabel Chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466A (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated.
Suggest you buy in the newer areas and purchase a new home
A new home lets you design it and pick out all the fixtures
The increase in prices in Fenney, both new and resale have increased in value beyond expectations and the same is true in the other areas being built
Everything is new including your neighbors

[tvbound]

If you are ready to occupy the new home, you should buy and move in.
You would "profit" by not wasting rent output of thousands (assuming you are renting as posh as you imply you were living) per month.

Regardless of when we purchase, we won't be moving to TV until fall as the summer is great up here. We did rent during the month of August one of the times, so as to get an idea of whether we could even handle the heat and humidity.

As to your belief that rent is wasted, not only are we in a much more modest house than we sold right now, I also don't have to worry about any of the maintenance, taxes, upkeep, Etc.

There are a number of books that have analyzed the difference between owning and renting for the last 30 years or so and was surprised as to how important it was as to when you purchased, when you sold and capital investments needed on the home, as to whether renting was always a money losing proposition over owning.

[jerseyjoy]

I won’t speculate, but I can tell you that we sold a 3/2 designer with pool in January, in one day, for 45k more than we paid two years prior. This week I have seen two 3/2 designer pool homes for sale, in the same vicinity (south of 466A)….one for 532k and one for 492k, both are less than we paid in 2018.

[tvbound]

Suggest you buy in the newer areas and purchase a new home
A new home lets you design it and pick out all the fixtures
The increase in prices in Fenney, both new and resale have increased in value beyond expectations and the same is true in the other areas being built
Everything is new including your neighbors

As mentioned earlier, we're buying the lifestyle not a house and a resale of whatever we end up choosing will not happen.

Not meant to offend anyone, but the new houses way down by the freeway are just too far away from what we feel is the heart of The Villages.

[merrymini]

Just like playing the market, who can say for sure? I think the housing market will take a hit. People have had a serious hit in the stock market and would not be feeling as flush and may have trouble selling their present home. Your finances will dictate. Being here is wonderful, no doubt, especially when activities are open!

[Stu from NYC]

It all depends upon the virus and its effects on the economy. No way to tell at this point.

Ask 12 economists and will probably get 13 answers.

[Villagesgal]

Speak with your financial people regarding rent vs own, then go with what's best for your financial situation. You brought up the point of not having to worry about maintenence issues, that's certainly part of the equation and will be a consideration for you. The lifestyle here is amazing. Don't put off your decision too long. Tomorrow is promised to no one. Enjoy life while you can, especially since as you keep implying, money is no object for you.

[La lamy]

I would just point out that the entire U.S. economy is collapsing. The Government has already spent $3 trillion to try to hold it together. Why wouldn't house prices in The Villages decline? Buying a house in this economy is risky.

As someone mentioned earlier, the demographic of house buyers in TV is older, mostly retired people who don't rely on work income. Even with stocks down a lot of us have our home paid off and can pay cash moving from one house to another.

[VApeople]

Not meant to offend anyone, but the new houses way down by the freeway are just too far away from what we feel is the heart of The Villages.

No one will be offended by your statement.

It is the same as someone saying they would not buy a house north of 466 because it would be too far from the beautiful walking and biking trails south of 44.

I think most of us think the "heart of The Villages" is right where we live.

[kendi]

Recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of June or wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by Glenview and Sabel Chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466A (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated.

The opinion of our Villages realtor is that once the bridges open the prices of the homes North of the bridges will drop.

[rustyp]

I won’t speculate, but I can tell you that we sold a 3/2 designer with pool in January, in one day, for 45k more than we paid two years prior. This week I have seen two 3/2 designer pool homes for sale, in the same vicinity (south of 466A)….one for 532k and one for 492k, both are less than we paid in 2018.

I would like to use this as an example of what I call the illusion of making money on real estate. Per the post they sold the house for $45K more than they paid two years prior. Also there is a hint of the sale was over $532K. Let's assume it sold for $600K. The sales commision at 6% would be $36K. Well that leaves $9K for profit. In two years they owned the house it would be very likely they put money into it, landscape, curtains, electrical fixtures, etc.Plus there was closing cost and if a mortgage two years of interest. Thus there was no money made.

[PennBF]

Every business has a goal to improve "incremental revenue" each year. That is revenue that was not booked the prior year, (e.g. new business or improvements on old, etc).Reducing costs will not bring in incremental revenue but it will improve profit. So, the
question is what will the Villages do long term, e.g. 5 year plan, etc. Example: I just saw a note in the news that there will be a meeting to discuss "trash collection". That is a flag there may be either increase costs which would be new revenue and good for the Trash Company and bad for the residents or altering the methods of collections (fewer) which would most likely alter the contract with the Trash Co. to benefit the Village Mgt. but add costs to the residents. Does anyone think it is for the benefit of the residents? Now take this action and expand it to Landscaping, maintenance, infrastructures, etc and that should provide some idea of the directions of The Villages. Results: More costs..Less Services.. When you bought here you should have considered this as what will be the future? One of the things that is kinda new to the typical Business Model's is the way the Villages were able to influence the Florida Government to develop laws most favorable to their business, such as being able to pack various
Community development Groups, having Statues that are most favorable to the Developer. WE LOVE THE VILLAGES AND PLAN TO BE FROGS HERE BUT DON'T KID OURSELVES REGARDING THE DIRECTIONS IT WILL GO. :popcorn:

[justjim]

The opinion of our Villages realtor is that once the bridges open the prices of the homes North of the bridges will drop.

I love a Realtor with a crystal ball! Sure, I would go with that Realtor, not.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Amen

[EnglishJW]

Some articles I saw recently indicated prices were holding steady (nationally), which I cannot believe. I think there was an article recently that we were doing better. I am waiting for the next shoe to drop, the high (very high) unemployment and the associated secondary effects. There have been several articles indicting we are in (or will be very shortly) a recession.
So here is what I think, if you are buying for profit you should probably wait to see what happens, if you are buying for enjoyment, life is too short, go for it.

What we've been told from friends in the business, is prices have remained firm but the actual number of sales is down significantly. This is anecdotal, not a study.

[tedquick]

Dear tvbound,

I sold real estate for 41 years, which only means that I sold real estate for 41 years but here are my thoughts: as villagetinker suggested, if you are buying for investment you might wait, but if you are buying for convenience, comfort, the home-of-your dreams, or whatever, then buy when you find the home that trips your trigger the most. (That’s what we did) We bought a floor plan that we loved (our number one consideration because of potential family visits) based on “location, location, location” (near where we knew we would spend most of our time). So we bought based on floor plan and future activities and then completely redid the home to our own personal tastes. We couldn’t be happier.

Oh, and one additional thought: you’ll need two Realtors in order to see all that is available, one from The Villages and then an independent broker. Make sure you are comfortable and trust the two with whom you choose to work. It is more important that you trust your Realtors than it is to like them, but best if you have both trust and like.

Best of luck. A good Realtor will make it fun.

[retiredguy123]

The opinion of our Villages realtor is that once the bridges open the prices of the homes North of the bridges will drop.
I think it is important to understand that real estate agents work for the seller. When a potential buyer refers to an agent as "our realtor" it is not accurate. Buyers should be wary of seeking advice from real estate agents because they are always going to put a positive spin on the housing market, especially during a difficult time such as this. They are being paid by the seller, not the buyer.

[TooColdNJ]

Wow, you are still willing to do without so that your adult kids will have an inheritance???

I invite you to move on to the next phase of life...live your life...your job raising the kids is over

We put all 5 through college on our dime, bought them cars, paid for the weddings, helped them get on their own feet....job done! Actually made a new house rule that kids are welcome for dinner anytime, but only grandchildren can sleep over...they laughed, but didn't push back

Our 5 know that IF there is anything left after we've enjoyed having the best possible time of our lives anything remaining is theirs...but they'd rather listen to the stories we tell them about our adventures


now, new vs. preowned in TV

Many of the 'pre-owned' homes are in great shape, however many will require substantial $$$ to renovate. Having contracted for renovations in FL and in the northeast I will say that there is no comparison...things are really different in FL (and not always in a good way so be very careful choosing a contractor in FL)

If you go new you're also going to spend money...we went new designer home and have spent 50K in upgrades with local contractors over the past 3 years

We had a small mortgage when we 1st bought here....once we no longer were itemizing our taxes we just paid it off...okay so cash reserves went down, however monthly expenses also went down

Nobody can predict the future with accuracy, however in the past home prices in TV seem to be insulated to an extend from what was going on everywhere else

Good luck...you've got some serious decisions to make...I hope it all works out for you
Davem, I commend you. This is off the topic of the initial post but bears mentioning. I see many folks that have more money to live on and play with than others do, so they can think about what they leave their children- it’s not hurting their lifestyles now. Some aren’t in that position. My child is doing better financially than we ever did. Material things and brand names have never been important to my daughter (and her husband), which will ultimately help them when they’re in the stage of life that we’re now in. On the other hand, I see how frugal some people live down here: dinner twofers with quantity rather than quality, picking through the racks of discount retail clothing stores and settling for things they may never have chosen at full retail or even on sale; cocktails are too expensive to order when dining out... they eat wherever they have a coupon for, etc., with more money in the bank or invested to leave the children.

I see my adult child and her husband investing in their future independently. Yet I’ve also known young couples who are relying on their future inheritances to make a large purchase or pay off their own kids’ college loans, for example. If we’ve raised them to be, and they have become responsible adults by now, it’s time to for us live life to its fullest- maybe even be frivolous by allowing ourselves some “wants” rather than needs. We’ve earned it.

IMO, doing without or with less, and living very frugally in order to leave our kids with an inheritance has become antiquated. Just saying...and not selfishly... if you can enjoy the remaining years of life with extra available bucks now, rest assured that our children will make it with or without us. If your kids have been spoiled all their lives, given the best of everything, (buying your 14:year old a Louis Vuitton purse?? ), you’ve done them a disservice from the start...no turning back now! At a time that we should be living, living, living, some are still saving, saving saving... for the kids.

[lindaelane]

You specifically want North Villages and its my understanding there has been little change in property value over time. There is reason to think this will continue. - - Check this out with an independent (not Villages) agent, because I cannot be sure. - - I can tell you the market price of my North Villages home has not budged in the four years I've owned it. I can also tell you I paid about what those who owned it before me had paid nine years before. Furthermore, I was told that prices in The Villages did not take much of a hit during 2008 - in other words, this is kind of a "real estate island" where little changes. Perhaps not true of new builds south of 466A. You need a professional opinion specific to the North Villages. Again, speak to an independent agent, not a Village employee who sells real estate here. (They are nice, but they do repeat the company line, which is not always strictly accurate.)

[Villages Kahuna]

Your choice seems may be a bet on whether the current “opening up” will cause a serious spike in new cases of coronavirus or not.

If the coronavirus situation gets worse we can expect the clamp down on travel and human interaction to be reinstated. That would be bad if you’re selling a house but good if you’re a buyer. But that also depends on whether you can travel here yourself. Being locked down up north or coming here and finding no place to stay while house shopping doesn’t help you.

Right now the curves have not completely flattened. President Trump estimates significant increases in deaths and in the next breath claims he’s done a spectacular job. The governors are a bit better but we shouldn’t forget that they’re all politicians running for re-election.

I’d suggest we should all seek information from reliable sources. Drs. Farci and Brix have become accepted sources of reliable information. The New York Times has begun to publish maybe the best and most understandable charts that I’ve seen. They show both daily numbers of new cases and deaths as well as a moving average. All the numbers are searchable down to the county level. Easy to understand and very accurate. By the way, Marion, Sumter and Lake counties are all well down the list of Florida counties which have had problematic numbers of infections and deaths.

So there you go, it’s a gamble. Personally I don’t think you’d save much money on the purchase of a Villages home by betting on some worst case scenario. That’s particularly true for new homes. The Villages will put sales spiffs on but they’re well-known for not panicking on pricing. Existing homeowners may be less disciplined but the new home prices tend to prop up used home prices as well.

I think if it were me, if I saw a home in a location I liked which checked all the boxes of features you want, I’d jump on it.

Good luck.

[davem4616]

Davem, I commend you. This is off the topic of the initial post but bears mentioning. I see many folks that have more money to live on and play with than others do, so they can think about what they leave their children- it’s not hurting their lifestyles now. Some aren’t in that position. My child is doing better financially than we ever did. Material things and brand names have never been important to my daughter (and her husband), which will ultimately help them when they’re in the stage of life that we’re now in. On the other hand, I see how frugal some people live down here: dinner twofers with quantity rather than quality, picking through the racks of discount retail clothing stores and settling for things they may never have chosen at full retail or even on sale; cocktails are too expensive to order when dining out... they eat wherever they have a coupon for, etc., with more money in the bank or invested to leave the children.

I see my adult child and her husband investing in their future independently. Yet I’ve also known young couples who are relying on their future inheritances to make a large purchase or pay off their own kids’ college loans, for example. If we’ve raised them to be, and they have become responsible adults by now, it’s time to for us live life to its fullest- maybe even be frivolous by allowing ourselves some “wants” rather than needs. We’ve earned it.

IMO, doing without or with less, and living very frugally in order to leave our kids with an inheritance has become antiquated. Just saying...and not selfishly... if you can enjoy the remaining years of life with extra available bucks now, rest assured that our children will make it with or without us. If your kids have been spoiled all their lives, given the best of everything, (buying your 14:year old a Louis Vuitton purse?? ), you’ve done them a disservice from the start...no turning back now! At a time that we should be living, living, living, some are still saving, saving saving... for the kids.



sometimes the answer to the question needs to go "off post" and be expanded so that one can step back a little and see the bigger picture and both the intended and unintended consequences

[davem4616]

Your choice seems to be a bet on whether the current “opening up” will cause a serious spike in new cases of coronavirus or not.

If the coronavirus situation gets worse we can expect the clamp down on travel and human interaction to be reinstated. That would be bad if you’re selling a house but good if you’re a buyer. But that also depends on whether you can travel here yourself. Being locked down up north or coming here and finding no place to stay while house shopping doesn’t help you.

Right now the curves have not completely flattened. President Trump estimates significant increases in deaths and in the next breath claims he’s done a spectacular job. The governors are a bit better but we shouldn’t forget that they’re all politicians running for re-election.

I’d suggest we should all seek information from reliable sources. Drs. Farci and Brix have become accepted sources of reliable information. The New York Times has begun to publish maybe the best and most understandable charts that I’ve seen. They show both daily numbers of new cases and deaths as well as a seven-day moving average. All the numbers are searchable down to the county level. Easy to understand and very accurate.

So there you go, it’s a gamble. Personally I don’t think you’d save much money on the purchase of a Villages home by betting on some worst case scenario. That’s particularly true for new homes. The Villages will put sales spiffs on but they’re well-known for not panicking on pricing. Existing homeowners may be less disciplined but the new home prices tend to prop up used home prices as well.

I think if it were me, if I saw a home in a location I liked which checked all the boxes of features you want, I’d jump on it.

Good luck.


I totally agree...just remember, he who hesitates is stuck choosing from what's left

[J1ceasar]

First congrats , any retirement community in Florida is better than anywhere else. Second, sounds like you'll have some money- buy it now if it makes your wife happy . The money doesn't matter.

Lastly - if you've sold your old place great - why wait to see what drops or not in value !

good luck and enjoy retirement. no stress needed...

[MissLaura]

“FROGS”? Just recently moved here and haven’t heard that term but I’m guessing it refers to everyone jumping from house to house?

[tophcfa]

“FROGS”? Just recently moved here and haven’t heard that term but I’m guessing it refers to everyone jumping from house to house?

Frogs are here till they croak

[tvbound]

Dear tvbound,

I sold real estate for 41 years, which only means that I sold real estate for 41 years but here are my thoughts: as villagetinker suggested, if you are buying for investment you might wait, but if you are buying for convenience, comfort, the home-of-your dreams, or whatever, then buy when you find the home that trips your trigger the most. (That’s what we did) We bought a floor plan that we loved (our number one consideration because of potential family visits) based on “location, location, location” (near where we knew we would spend most of our time). So we bought based on floor plan and future activities and then completely redid the home to our own personal tastes. We couldn’t be happier.

Oh, and one additional thought: you’ll need two Realtors in order to see all that is available, one from The Villages and then an independent broker. Make sure you are comfortable and trust the two with whom you choose to work. It is more important that you trust your Realtors than it is to like them, but best if you have both trust and like.

Best of luck. A good Realtor will make it fun.

Good advice and will take under advisement.

Thanks.

[tvbound]

Wow, you are still willing to do without so that your adult kids will have an inheritance???

I invite you to move on to the next phase of life...live your life...your job raising the kids is over



You've somehow made a large leap in assumptions.

We are living our life exactly as we want and are not "doing without" anything, just to provide a larger inheritance.

It was simply an ancillary comment, about having extra money to play with in the market(s).

[nevjudbaker]

I would think June. Many may be holding off on selling their home until November because the prices may come up or that is the time snowbirds come down to buy. You may have more choices. Also a realtor may know of some who are interested in selling but are waiting to put the house on the market.
If someone is listing their home now they will probably take best offer.
I met a couple who put their house up for sale in March. Their house sold immediately at ther first open house.
These houses sell fast so I don't think you will get a big price drop. I would think it would depend on what type of home you are looking to buy.
We just moved here. I don't see anything slowing down. Executive golf courses are full. People out driving their golfcarts all over. People meeting their friends at the squares or a nice shaded area visiting. Bikers & walkers are out. This is an unique area for Seniors. There is always going to be your negative comments but I don't see why homes will drop that much in price. Homes that are over priced because of extras in that home versus the same home without the extras may have to drop prices because most people won't pay for the extras. Unless someone really likes that particular home. Many extras can be outdated or not to their liking.
Bottom line is your priorities.

[Curtisbwp]

You must consider the $38,000.00 bond on new homes
I live in Sabel Chase (2nd home) and i love it here.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

I’ve own 14 new homes , I would never put more then 20% down even if I planned on staying in a house , use the money for whatever else you choose, let the house go up in value even during a downtime your house will eventually turn a profit.

I agree. I read somewhere that since 1985 property values in The Villages have never gone down. Even during the worse downturns and recessions they held their own. I doubt that we're going to see property values drop in the near future. If they were going tho, they would have by now. What real estate is doing in the rest of the country has very little to do with what prices do here.

It's not just inflation, it's supply and demand. It seems that The Villages cannot keep up with the demand. With the baby boomers coming to retirement age, that's not going to change.

[Jerseygirl08]

“FROGS”? Just recently moved here and haven’t heard that term but I’m guessing it refers to everyone jumping from house to house?

HAHAHA. that's exactly what I thought it meant when I moved here in 2009. Thanks for the chuckle !!:welcome:

[rphil11ort]

I bought my home using a reverse purchase. put about half down and will not have a mortgage payment the rest of my life. the bank does not own the home you do and if you pass your kids get any remaining equity and if the mortgage is under water by the time you pass at 150 year of age it can not go after your estate to get the difference

[Villagesgal]

You specifically want North Villages and its my understanding there has been little change in property value over time. There is reason to think this will continue. - - Check this out with an independent (not Villages) agent, because I cannot be sure. - - I can tell you the market price of my North Villages home has not budged in the four years I've owned it. I can also tell you I paid about what those who owned it before me had paid nine years before. Furthermore, I was told that prices in The Villages did not take much of a hit during 2008 - in other words, this is kind of a "real estate island" where little changes. Perhaps not true of new builds south of 466A. You need a professional opinion specific to the North Villages. Again, speak to an independent agent, not a Village employee who sells real estate here. (They are nice, but they do repeat the company line, which is not always strictly accurate.)

Both you and the former seller must have way overpaid.
I had my home built 18 years ago on a championship golf course north of 466. It is now worth 3 times what we paid. Neighbors who have sold, got 3 times plus what they paid, even homes not on the golf course here have increased 3X+ up to 4X their original value, so you are totally miss-stating values in general north of 466.

[Boilerman]

The opinion of our Villages realtor is that once the bridges open the prices of the homes North of the bridges will drop.

The Villages sales agents are highly incentivized by the developer to sell new homes instead of resales. Not a criticism, just a fact. Of course they’ll say that preowned homes north of 44 will soon drop.

[manaboutown]

I just checked Zestimates on homes of friends and family in Idaho, New Mexico and Southern California. They have actually increased in valuations since the beginning of the year. Now those as most of you know are Zillow estimates, for whatever they are worth.

[manaboutown]

The Villages sales agents are highly incentivized by the developer to sell new homes instead of resales. Not a criticism, just a fact. Of course they’ll say that preowned homes north of 44 will soon drop.

Villages agents are of course largely if not primarily working for the developer to sell new homes. They are there to sell all of the new homes it builds as fast as it can build them. In my experience they may put a spin on things to sell new homes.

[THUNDERCHIEF]

recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of june or wait until around november to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in the villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by glenview and sabel chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466a (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated. i think the best people to answer your question would be from the villages real estate

[Boilerman]

Villages agents are of course largely if not primarily working for the developer to sell new homes. They are there to sell all of the new homes it builds as fast as it can build them. In my experience they may put a spin on things to sell new homes.

Some Villages agents are better than others. The agent we used when we moved here was honest about preferring to sell us a new home but was fully supportive of us buying a preowned home. Unfortunately for her, the house we bought was through the MLS and she didn’t make any money from us. We felt bad but she understood.

I’ve heard stories from friends where the agent refused to show them any preowned homes.

[rphil11ort]

get inside the bubble. full of useful information about the villages. did you know in 2008 they sold over 2200 homes and in 2009 over 2100. good to know

[zmarkp]

I've been a real estate investor so I know a little about the game.

I found what I wanted here both in size and, more importantly, in _location_. And bought it two years before I moved here permanently. I did not rent it out.

I overpaid for it after getting into a bidding war. And while I could be happy just about anyplace in TV, I am 'happier' here.

You've heard of the time value of money? There's also the money value of time.

[jimjamuser]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I agree about the potential for a recession, which is the only reason we haven't already bought. In fact, instead of just paying cash for the house we are also thinking of taking out a partial mortgage in case the stock market tanks big time, which that extra money could then be invested. That would give us even more money to play with, so the kids will have a bigger inheritance when the time comes. Particularly since home mortgages are at record lows right now and it wouldn't take much return from stocks, to come out way ahead in the long run going in that direction.

This will definitely be our last home and as we heard many times from the full-time residents when we rented, I guess that will officially make us "frogs."
Borrowing to buy stocks sounds riskier than buying real estate. Be careful. The market is more volatile than at any time in our lifetimes.

[jerseyjoy]

Not saying we made money, and that was not my point. Was referring to the quick, inflated appreciation for two years, and how quickly it seems to be deflating. And you are assuming we used a realtor and paid a commission.

[manaboutown]

I’ve heard stories from friends where the agent refused to show them any preowned homes.

My first Villages agent evaded showing me even one preowned home.

[TimeForChange]

With the serious situation in the NE and Midwest and C19 I would think the demand for homes here will do nothing but rise on through the Summer (recession or not). FL is a very desired State for many reasons but we have so far weathered the virus pretty well here. My biggest concern is people coming here from the North to rent in the Summer just to get away from those hard hit areas and then bringing the virus down to us.

[rustyp]

Not saying we made money, and that was not my point. Was referring to the quick, inflated appreciation for two years, and how quickly it seems to be deflating. And you are assuming we used a realtor and paid a commission.

I wasn't picking on you. I was pointing out "the big question" commonly gets answered with you won't go wrong with real estate. Then the examples come as to I sold my house for twice what I paid. I put myself as the example this time. I happened to buy my house here in TV Jan 2012. It is now worth more than double. Double in eight years (without counting expenses = many) I consider that a poor investment. Don't lose sight of I purchased at rock bottom of the market and we are at peak and the OP was asking should I buy now. I give myself a failing grade if my purpose was investment. I rented here for five years prior to my 2012 purchase. The problem was the insecurity of not knowing if you could have the same place next season. I didn't have to pay taxes, lawn guy, bug guy, amenities fees, homeowners insurance, utilities, on and on. I negotiated with the landlord and cut one check which most times included a golf cart. Money wise I believe the renting was a better deal - certainly less responsibility. This response I predict will get a lot of static because no one I ever met here in TV has made a bad investment except me.

[tvbound]

i think the best people to answer your question would be from the villages real estate

Since I'm not looking at a new home and I've heard from several people that the sales people for The Villages are encouraged to push the new construction on the other side of the freeway harder than resales, I'm not sure they would be the "best people" to make a guess. I'm pretty sure it would be hard to find a single one of the TV paid salesperson that would suggest I should wait, versus "you need to hurry and buy now."

Unless there's some new construction north of 466A and that's not on the far eastern edge (or next to the old garbage dump), that I'm not aware of.

The person who mentioned in a previous post, about having both a TV salesperson and an independent Realtor to hear the pros and cons of each, seems to make the most sense to me.

[tvbound]

Borrowing to buy stocks sounds riskier than buying real estate. Be careful. The market is more volatile than at any time in our lifetimes.

"Borrowing" to buy stocks?

Since that is something I would never, ever, ever, even think of doing, I'm a little confused where you got that idea from any of my posts?

One only has to do a bit of reading about the Great Depression, to understand that buying stocks on margin was a big contributor to the market crash.

The obvious volatility of the markets (long before this virus thing), with the potential we are only on a temporary plateau before a significant plunge, is the exact reason I was looking for other's opinions on their guesses as to the best time to buy.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I think it is important to understand that real estate agents work for the seller. When a potential buyer refers to an agent as "our realtor" it is not accurate. Buyers should be wary of seeking advice from real estate agents because they are always going to put a positive spin on the housing market, especially during a difficult time such as this. They are being paid by the seller, not the buyer.

Nah, real estate agents work for themselves, for their commission. Being paid by seller is true, but if the difference in commission for the re agent is immaterial to them, they will prefer a quick sale versus the sellers ideal sale, especially if the ideal sale is expected in their mind to take 3-6 months longer.

Freakonomics Chapter 2: How Is the Ku Klux Klan Like a Group of Real-Estate Agents? Summary & Analysis | LitCharts (https://www.litcharts.com/lit/freakonomics/chapter-2-how-is-the-ku-klux-klan-like-a-group-of-real-estate-agents)

Summary:
Consider a textbook example of information asymmetry: selling a house. When a person sells a house, there are two major dangers: 1) setting the price too low and 2) setting the price too high. The job of a real estate agent is to find the “golden mean” between 1) and 2). But, as we saw in the Introduction to this book, real estate agents don’t always have their client’s best interests in mind: indeed, their monopoly on information about the real estate market may encourage them to sell a house for too cheap.
As we saw in the Introduction, a real estate agent’s incentives don’t always line up with those of the client. Given what we’ve learned about how experts use fear and ignorance to pressure people into changing their behavior, we can start to understand how real estate agents might convince their clients to sell their houses for a lower price than they’d like.

The authors of the book recall a close friend, “K.” K. wanted to buy a house for 450,000 dollars. K. phoned the seller’s agent and asked the agent to name the lowest price the homeowner might accept. The agent scolded K. for asking such an unethical question. But then, the agent said, “My client is willing to sell this house for a lot less than you might think.” After the conversation, K. offered 425,000 dollars for the house. So because of his own real estate agent’s actions, the seller of the house lost 20,000 dollars. Meanwhile, the agent himself lost only 300 dollars (his “cut” of the commission on the house).

Worked with too many sales people with too many incentive plans to modify sales rep behavior to believe that sales agents work for a company or a person. I have seen more than one sales rep hold their big deal as hostage for better commission rates, and other questionable behaviors, such as using the approach, "Danny, if you believe it, its not a lie!"

great theory, not in practice.

sportsguy's experience

[Travelhunter]

As mentioned earlier, we're buying the lifestyle not a house and a resale of whatever we end up choosing will not happen.

Not meant to offend anyone, but the new houses way down by the freeway are just too far away from what we feel is the heart of The Villages.

The center of the villages is moving. In the not to distant future Fenney will be the center of the villages
Many have said they will not move but the average villager moves three times
Your right you need to buy where your comfortable

[KSSunshine]

Recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of June or wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by Glenview and Sabel Chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466A (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated.

Of course no one can predict the future, but I'm betting that prices are going up! A home near us was listed for $275K more than the selling price a year ago. Golf Course view and pool. It is now pending, but don't know the actual price. The house next door listed for ~$225 more than it sold for 1 year ago. Golf course view but no pool (has room). Both properties had a very significant increase...got my attention!

[Villages Kahuna]

Take a look at this Wall Street Journal article. It addresses your question pretty well. I hope you can read it without a subscription.

Why Home Prices Are Rising During the Pandemic - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-home-prices-are-rising-during-the-pandemic-11588671002?emailToken=aeb9757e9acdaaa9ab5d6fef69d e2f2dlIQIhWS5KsA0Eu1AxzAK9wtiQDjciNS1u40TnZVCIO12E 4nHnLWdfwqFikv9Zn9cskC2w9V+ra0EIkGiMVMnjY4tLXTI1jd gF83OXhGQKWc%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share)

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

I’m in my 5th home in villages each of my other homes sold with a nice profit , your either looking at some strange numbers or you have other reasons for saying you house has not gone up in value

[tvbound]

I’m in my 5th home in villages each of my other homes sold with a nice profit , your either looking at some strange numbers or you have other reasons for saying you house has not gone up in value
Excuse me, but I'm confused. Whose post are you directing this at?

Thank you.