Massive Drop in Homebuyer Interest

[jacksonbrown]

So, I've been talking with my "real estate" friends, mostly MLS Realtors, not so much TV sales agents as they are much more closed mouth.

The Realtors (R) are seeing a significant downturn in buyers' interest, much more than the 2008 housing debacle.

This article speaks to it. (https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/massive-drop-in-homebuyer-interest)

[Stu from NYC]

With so much uncertainty to me not a time to move if you do not have to

[michaelUK]

So, I've been talking with my "real estate" friends, mostly MLS Realtors, not so much TV sales agents as they are much more closed mouth.

The Realtors (R) are seeing a significant downturn in buyers' interest, much more than the 2008 housing debacle.

This article speaks to it. (https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/massive-drop-in-homebuyer-interest)

All sounds a bit flimsy to me with a quoted 92% indicating a significant drop in interest but how many were polled and from what part of the country? I wonder if realtors are simply indicating a reduction in interest in viewing Open Houses where most realtors ply their trade.

[ficoguy]

his one feels different.....authorities are saying the economy could be in the dumper for 2 years.....the prospect of an unfavorable change in the Administration that is not friendly to those who are deemed "wealthy" for saving money and living prudently and now can enjoy the fruits of their toils....

[vintageogauge]

I don't know how much of a drop there is but there sure is not a slow down in building, we drove through DeLuna, Chitty Chatty, and Bradford yesterday and the number of homes going us is staggering. There are also a lot of re-sale homes south of 44 that are sold in just a few days. I really don't feel that we can truly believe anything we are told, if you check with Trulia once a week and count the number that are sold you'll see that they are still very high. One thing is sure and that is TV is not concerned about it, they are already starting on several recreation areas and neighborhood rec. centers south of Bradford in 2 or 3 new villages, they are not slowing down at all.

[champion6]

I don't know how much of a drop there is but there sure is not a slow down in building, we drove through DeLuna, Chitty Chatty, and Bradford yesterday and the number of homes going us is staggering. There are also a lot of re-sale homes south of 44 that are sold in just a few days. I really don't feel that we can truly believe anything we are told, if you check with Trulia once a week and count the number that are sold you'll see that they are still very high. One thing is sure and that is TV is not concerned about it, they are already starting on several recreation areas and neighborhood rec. centers south of Bradford in 2 or 3 new villages, they are not slowing down at all.I agree. And from today's Daily Sun:
The number of single-family housing permits issued during the first quarter in Sumter County grew year-over-year by about 21.8%, largely because of construction south of State Route 44 in The Villages, according to the county's Building Services Department. The department issued 748 permits over the three months ending March 31.

To me, that's an indication for the pace of building. What you noted seeing in Trulia is an indication for the pace of selling.

[retiredguy123]

I don't know how much of a drop there is but there sure is not a slow down in building, we drove through DeLuna, Chitty Chatty, and Bradford yesterday and the number of homes going us is staggering. There are also a lot of re-sale homes south of 44 that are sold in just a few days. I really don't feel that we can truly believe anything we are told, if you check with Trulia once a week and count the number that are sold you'll see that they are still very high. One thing is sure and that is TV is not concerned about it, they are already starting on several recreation areas and neighborhood rec. centers south of Bradford in 2 or 3 new villages, they are not slowing down at all.
I don't know how The Villages finances construction, but interest rates are extremely low. So, it is a great time for a builder to borrow money and build. And, The Villages can control the supply of new houses by how many of them they release for sale. They may be able to build a lot of houses and keep them off the market for a few years, especially if they are not paying much interest on the loan.

[davem4616]

Here we go again...somebody finds a statistic, or asks a couple of folks and that becomes their reality and starts running around like chicken little that the sky in falling

Nobody knows what's going to happen next month let alone six months from now...it's going to be what it's going to be...we'll just have to wait and see

I've stopped listening to the talking heads that merely recite what someone else writes for them to read...or it's just their biased, group think opinion based on their limited knowledge

If prices go down in TV and I sell....prices are also going to be down where ever I go to....so it's a wash

but I'm not planning on selling any time soon....

[Velvet]

Of course there is a down turn in homebuyers interests... duh.... Most people near retirement age are worried about going outside for any reason at all, even to the grocery store and they are thinking will I live through this, not, should I be changing houses at this dangerous time.
This will change as soon as the pandemic is not so virulent.

[Challenger]

I don't know how The Villages finances construction, but interest rates are extremely low. So, it is a great time for a builder to borrow money and build. And, The Villages can control the supply of new houses by how many of them they release for sale. They may be able to build a lot of houses and keep them off the market for a few years, especially if they are not paying much interest on the loan.

Builders/Developers don't borrow and build for stockpiling inventory into the face of a downturn. Becomes very expensive to finance .

[Stu from NYC]

I don't know how The Villages finances construction, but interest rates are extremely low. So, it is a great time for a builder to borrow money and build. And, The Villages can control the supply of new houses by how many of them they release for sale. They may be able to build a lot of houses and keep them off the market for a few years, especially if they are not paying much interest on the loan.

I do not think that many builders would build a lot of homes to keep off market, if this lasts a long time home prices will go nowhere but down.

[justjim]

We were here in TV in 2008-2010 during the economic downturn and the Village Developer kept building and selling new homes. Don’t underestimate their strength and strategy.

[billethkid]

Everything is relative.
Prior to the last financial collapse (2003-2005) TV was selling/building/closing over 400 homes per month. In many cases homes were allocated and or sold lottery style....they were so much in demand.

Then there was the financial collapse....TV sell/build/close rate DROPPED to 150-200 homes per month.......generating comments like we are seeing/hearing today......sales way down....lack of interest.....I always ask how many developers in the world would like to have TV problem of slow business at 150-200 per month.

I would think there is a magic number for build rate that TV that optimizes costs and they would try to maintain that rate as long as practical.

I would also comment that the term lack of interest, in my opinion, is not so accurate. The Covid-19 environment is keeping realtors from showing....keeping buyers from traveling/staying at hotels/etc.....which all do not add up to lack of interest.

Will end up more a timing issue. There will be a bounce when the environment is deemed "safe" again (what ever definition that takes on).

[Boomer]

When it comes to buying and/or selling real estate, or any other major change, I think that good decision makers always carefully examine their personal situations and then act according to the pros and cons. Answers will vary.

The problem now is that the unknown is something bigger and far more unknown than anything we have ever had to factor in.

My guess is sitting tight will be what many buyers will decide to do, if possible. I do know that is what I would be doing. Whistling in the dark just would not work for me right now.

[thelegges]

Last three houses we had an interest in sold in a week

[Marathon Man]

Of course there is a drop in interest. Anyone who is not 100% serious about purchasing a new home is not going to run around with a salesman going through other people's houses.

Sales - is there a significant drop in sales?

[ficoguy]

The developer does a reverse auction - he tells the builder what kind of home is to be built on what lot - then 3 builders submit their quote - so they build it say for $ 125,000 and the developer puts it in inventory for $ 225,000, discounts it to $ 216,208 - and you get a bargain!

[karostay]

Just ride around look at for sale signs..Noticed a some new ones past few days

[LiverpoolWalrus]

The Villages is unique in so many ways including its real estate market. We do not mirror the rest of the country. As long as the stock market’s decline is not sustained, we’ll be fine. Ten thousand people per day turn 65 in our country. Per day! And many of them have adequately prepared for retirement... in Florida.

This fact, combined with our unbeatable lifestyle and historically low interest rates is probably why the developer hasn’t slowed down.

Sure sales will slow if buyers can’t get in to see houses, but that’s a temporary blip.

Can we get a local non-Villages realtor to weigh in?

[retiredguy123]

I don't think The Villages is as unique as some people think. Retirement communities are being built all over Florida and the rest of the country. And, real estate agents may not be a good source of information to provide an honest assessment of the current and future state of the real estate industry. They are extremely biased. They seem to always put an unrealistic positive slant on the market, because their livelihood depends on selling houses.

[dewilson58]

Talked to my hairdresser, she said there has not been a significant drop.

[vintageogauge]

On April 30th 14 MLS listed homes were placed under contract within The Villages, not closed deals, just sold and pending closing. That figure does not include re-sales by TV agents, new homes, or lots. The information is available on Estately.

[ficoguy]

The builder finances and then TV developer buys it from the builder and puts it in inventory

[BobnBev]

Talked to my hairdresser, she said there has not been a significant drop.

Talked to my bra maker, she says there has been a significant drop, especially in people over 60. :1rotfl::1rotfl::clap2::a040::a040:

[thelegges]

So could someone tell the masses to stop bidding on houses In this massive drop in homebuyer interest :popcorn:

[thomp679]

Talked to my hairdresser, she said there has not been a significant drop.

But your hairdresser is in Orlando, so does she really know?