Did we blow it with the lockdown?

[GoodLife]

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-06)

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

[Stu from NYC]

Good question but hopefully one of the vaccines being tested now will be available by end of the year and stop the virus in its tracks

[Velvet]

Just a thought, as the virus mutates, and it is thought that it is already a different strain in Europe and US than it was in Asia, and immunity for one strain does not give immunity for the next strain. So Sweden may well have paid all those deaths in vain.

[Ben Franklin]

The problem with herd mentality is it allows others to infect you and kill you, even if you take precautions. The question then becomes a moral one. Is assisted suicide not the same thing? Is abortion not the same thing? All three allow someone else to take your life. At least with assisted suicide, you have given permission to be killed. Just a query.

[GoodLife]

The problem with herd mentality is it allows others to infect you and kill you, even if you take precautions. The question then becomes a moral one. Is assisted suicide not the same thing? Is abortion not the same thing? All three allow someone else to take your life. At least with assisted suicide, you have given permission to be killed. Just a query.

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

[GoodLife]

Just a thought, as the virus mutates, and it is thought that it is already a different strain in Europe and US than it was in Asia, and immunity for one stain does not give immunity for the next strain. So Sweden may well have paid all those deaths in vain.

Good thought. At this point we don't know how long immunity lasts or if it works against all strains. I'm sure it will be studied.

There are not widespread reports of large numbers of people getting infected twice, most of those reports are of individuals who have relapsed or possible faulty testing.

[davem4616]

The jury is still out on whether the Swedes got it right...but time will certainly tell

I do wonder though if the approach that Sweden took would have actually worked in the States...the two cultures are very different

this takes the post a little off course, but it is about the Swedes, so I'll share:

Back in the 1900's a manufacturing company in central Massachusetts, where I was raised, sent recruiters to Sweden and brought hundreds of Swedes over to America to work in their factory. Their research had indicated that Swedes were much more inclined to adapt and follow direction and far less likely to organize into a union than other nationalities or the local US workers at that time were. This one company wanted to avoid having to deal with a union. That company ended up with a predominant Swedish workforce and to this day never did unionize. All of the other large manufacturing firms in that same city did unionize.

[GoodLife]

The jury is still out on whether the Swedes got it right...but time will certainly tell

I do wonder though if the approach that Sweden took would have actually worked in the States...the two cultures are very different

this takes the post a little off course, but it is about the Swedes, so I'll share:

Back in the 1900's a manufacturing company in central Massachusetts, where I was raised, sent recruiters to Sweden and brought hundreds of Swedes over to America to work in their factory. Their research had indicated that Swedes were much more inclined to adapt and follow direction and far less likely to organize into a union than other nationalities or the local US workers at that time were. This one company wanted to avoid having to deal with a union. That company ended up with a predominant Swedish workforce and to this day never did unionize. All of the other large manufacturing firms in that same city did unionize.

Very true

Swedes are Osjälviska (selfless)

[GoodLife]

Good question but hopefully one of the vaccines being tested now will be available by end of the year and stop the virus in its tracks

Lots of smart people working on it!

[billethkid]

When the vaccine is released and available to the public let us hope the general public is more responsive to it than they have been with flu shots.

In my opinion those who have decided for what ever reason to not get a flu shot will also not get the Covid-19 vaccine.

[chet2020]

I don't hate the Swedish approach. They have the advantage of 50% of their population being in single-person households vs. 30% in the U.S. so it makes more sense for them. The question is whether they will get to herd immunity before a vaccine or treatment is developed. If they do, they made the right call. If they don't, well, I won't criticize them because they made a reasonable gamble. At least they have a plan, we're just treading water.

[oneclickplus]

The problem with herd mentality ...

Herd mentality is indeed a problem. However, we are discussing herd immunity which is a good thing.

[tsmall22204]

I feel that folks have far too much time on their hands what with the stay at home guidelines. They read and put together strange hypotheses hoping to save the world. I feel it is healthy to be informed but harmful to try to inflict your beliefs on others.

[Astron]

I hope we develop head immunity and a vaccine, but that doesn’t always work. Think about the common cold. Time will tell.

[roscoguy]

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.

[Joanne19335]

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-06)

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Hate to be negative here, but the fat lady is just warming up.

[golfing eagles]

Hate to be negative here, but the fat lady is just warming up.

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

[Eg_cruz]

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-06)

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
I really do not believe anyone’s numbers. FYI 206 per million is higher then must country Switzerland is the 18th highest cases recorded so not sure they doing that great. If you believe the recorded data then China is doing great with only 3 per million deaths....lol. I think we may have made mis-steps absolutely but I truly believe our death toll would have been so much higher.....only time will tell and all our Monday Morning Quarterbacks won’t change anything unless we are willing to learn from this.

[catlady1955@aol.com]

Sweden has advantages that we don’t. At any sign of illness they can go on paid sick leave and they have socialized medicine.

[La lamy]

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-06)

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

I disagree that "the only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced". I also really want them to work on treating the virus with effective methods, rather than wait for a vaccine that may be ineffective for the inevitable mutations of this virus (which is already happening).

[Skunky1]

The pain will continue until the lesson is learned

[matandch]

Herd immunity will require a horrendous death toll to get there. Mothers, fathers, grandparents, sisters, brothers, friends, maybe me and you will be sacrificed to accomplish this goal. Is it worth it?

[theruizs]

What does the implied affair with the pretty have to do with anything? At any rate, the best defense against this virus getting out of hand would have been requiring everyone to wear masks or a face covering (nose and mouth) when anywhere in public. The mask or covering drastically reduces the chance that an infected individual will spread the virus, not 100% of course, but I think better than what we are doing now. It would still be a good move and then we could open things up much quicker. Why there is so much resistance to that is beyond me. Why do some think it such a big deal, or some kind of infringement of their rights? Is a lockdown and business closures better? Get everyone wearing a mask or covering and then get things back open with little to no restrictions.

[drgoofy]

Herd immunity works great if you're not the member of the herd being culled.

[golfing eagles]

What does the implied affair with the pretty have to do with anything? At any rate, the best defense against this virus getting out of hand would have been requiring everyone to wear masks or a face covering (nose and mouth) when anywhere in public. The mask or covering drastically reduces the chance that an infected individual will spread the virus, not 100% of course, but I think better than what we are doing now. It would still be a good move and then we could open things up much quicker. Why there is so much resistance to that is beyond me. Why do some think it such a big deal, or some kind of infringement of their rights? Is a lockdown and business closures better? Get everyone wearing a mask or covering and then get things back open with little to no restrictions.

Agree 100% for INDOOR environments. Completely unnecessary OUTDOORS

Here are the findings of a recent study:

"Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. Although this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognized by the community and by policy makers. Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilization. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon."

Now here is a question I would really like a legitimate answer to:

I have seen dozens of people driving alone in their car with the windows up and wearing a mask. WHY???. I'd like to hear from any of those people as to what they are thinking, since I can't come up with a reason.

[graciegirl]

Agree 100% for INDOOR environments. Completely unnecessary OUTDOORS

Here are the findings of a recent study:

"Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. Although this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognized by the community and by policy makers. Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilization. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon."

Now here is a question I would really like a legitimate answer to:

I have seen dozens of people driving alone in their car with the windows up and wearing a mask. WHY???. I'd like to hear from any of those people as to what they are thinking, since I can't come up with a reason.

I am not one of those people. I have to think they think they are doing the right thing. They aren't really, wearing masks in their cars.

But, I like THEM a tad better than those who are all concerned about losing their rights because of temporary rules set up for a very unusual happening.

[GoodLife]

I really do not believe anyone’s numbers. FYI 206 per million is higher then must country Switzerland is the 18th highest cases recorded so not sure they doing that great. If you believe the recorded data then China is doing great with only 3 per million deaths....lol. I think we may have made mis-steps absolutely but I truly believe our death toll would have been so much higher.....only time will tell and all our Monday Morning Quarterbacks won’t change anything unless we are willing to learn from this.

I believe the numbers from western countries. China numbers are garbage. They actually banned funerals Feb 1st in a childish attempt to hide their death totals. Third world countries lack testing capabilities to give a true picture.

It seems you missed a key point in in my post. The data we see about total cases, death rates etc is just a snapshot in time. We haven't even finished the first quarter of this game. The winners are determined when the game is over.

[theruizs]

Agree 100% for INDOOR environments. Completely unnecessary OUTDOORS

Here are the findings of a recent study:

"Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. Although this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognized by the community and by policy makers. Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilization. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon."

Now here is a question I would really like a legitimate answer to:

I have seen dozens of people driving alone in their car with the windows up and wearing a mask. WHY???. I'd like to hear from any of those people as to what they are thinking, since I can't come up with a reason.

Right, we don’t wear them when we walk. Although, if it looked liked we would be outside standing in a line or something we might. Also, masks don’t help restaurants or bars so social distancing would still be necessary. I just think most of these closures and lockdowns are overkill when masks actually are a better solution in many cases.

[GoodLife]

What does the implied affair with the pretty have to do with anything?

Lets see. The scientist whose phony models scared the world into enacting strict lockdowns and social distancing doesn't see fit to follow the rules himself. Reminds me of a mayor who closed all gyms but kept going himself.

[mtdjed]

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE
Your statement would apply to almost all comments made by TOTV contributors to this topic. People are only offering their opinions.

[graciegirl]

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

Until and unless we get some hard figures, some genuine data that can be trusted on who is sick, what they are sick with, what did they die of …., until then, the virologists and epidemiologists with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses will have difficulty with their projections.

I bet a lot of them are ready to BITE.

[amexsbow]

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

People are social animals, without social contact society dies and with it civilization. If we are to survive as a nation we must be pragmatic regarding our reaction to the dangers of the virus. The virus will not go away. Viruses which were prevalent decades ago are still around but not epidemic. If we do not open up our country we will destroy what took hundreds of years to create. People who are at risk or fearful can continue to self isolate. Those who want to live should be allowed to carry on with life as it was before the virus. Do we not drive because we might be killed in a car accident? Do people not smoke because they might die from cancer? If we allow bureaucrats and politicians to dictate our lives how long before they tell us what to eat and drink; what to wear and how to wear it. I am 74 and my group still plays pickleball. We would rather be free to choose how to live and die. People die, it should be their choice how they go. I will go with a smile on my face.

[GoodLife]

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

Actually she's right, the fat lady is just warming up, according to epidemiologists

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf

[theruizs]

Lets see. The scientist whose phony models scared the world into enacting strict lockdowns and social distancing doesn't see fit to follow the rules himself. Reminds me of a mayor who closed all gyms but kept going himself.

The mayor example is not the same thing. A better example is you find out the carpenter you hired is having an affair. Do you fire him because of the affair? He could be doing perfectly fine with the work you hired him to do. And if he isn’t, does it really have anything to do with the affair? That was really my question.

[JanetMM]

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-06)

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
That is why I am so torn. Spanish Flu back in 1918-1920 came in waves while social distancing and wearing masks. Weren’t there 500,000,000 deaths worldwide? What to do, what to do?

[GoodLife]

Your statement would apply to almost all comments made by TOTV contributors to this topic. People are only offering their opinions.

Read this and tell me if epidemiologists (not me) think the fat lady is about to sing.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf

see figure 1, we are currently on the left side of the timeline showing projected waves of the virus

[amexsbow]

Read this and tell me if epidemiologists (not me) think the fat lady is about to sing.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf

Thank you for providing proof of my post. Those of us who are willing to live life as we see fit should not be isolated by fiat. Those who want to isolate themselves should do so and not cast aspersions against those who do not want to isolate themselves. Freedom of choice, my body my choice is what the progressives preach but do not adhere to. (I am a conservative)

[Tom53]

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

[golfing eagles]

Actually she's right, the fat lady is just warming up, according to epidemiologists

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf

Not at all.

First of all the researchers in the article cited 3 different possible scenarios. None of them signal the end of civilization nor even suggest "the fat lady is just warming up"

Second, they are retrospectively comparing histories of 8 INFLUENZA epidemics since 1700 and extrapolating to possible COVID 19 future scenarios. Interesting, but hardly definitive. After all, just look at the early models that suggested 2 million + American deaths

[toeser]

And you know this HOW???

Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses, your statement is PURE CONJECTURE

Based upon how both organizations have done so far, I would put my faith elsewhere.

[fdpaq0580]

Agree 100% for INDOOR environments. Completely unnecessary OUTDOORS

Here are the findings of a recent study:

"Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. anAlthough this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognized by the community and by policy makers.[/B] Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilization. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon."

Now here is a question I would really like a legitimate answer to:

I have seen dozens of people driving alone in their car with the windows up and wearing a mask. WHY???. I'd like to hear from any of those people as to what they are thinking, since I can't come up with a reason.
I can only answer for me. I live close to the grocery store. I choose to wear my n95 while shopping there. After loading my groceries in my car I drove home (with the windows down,mind you). When I pulled into my garage I realized I was still wearing my mask. Since it hadn't been uncomfortable, I just didn't think to remove it. Silly me.?.

[Jacob85]

I am watching New Zealand which had a strict lockdown and is now starting with Phase 2 to open their economy with 19 deaths the last I heard! Is easy to talk about deaths like they are just numbers but these are people. New Zealand will have their economy as well as losing fewer people! This sounds much better to me then heard immunity!

[GoodLife]

Not at all.

First of all the researchers in the article cited 3 different possible scenarios. None of them signal the end of civilization nor even suggest "the fat lady is just warming up"

Second, they are retrospectively comparing histories of 8 INFLUENZA epidemics since 1700 and extrapolating to possible COVID 19 future scenarios. Interesting, but hardly definitive. After all, just look at the early models that suggested 2 million + American deaths

You asked for epidemiologists expertise, I gave it to you. Now you discount their opinion. Nobody is talking about the end of the world here. If we are in the first few months of a pandemic scenario that could last 2 years, as these epidemiologists say, then saying the fat lady is just warming up is quite logical.

The CIDRAP report stressed that no matter which scenario actually occurs, governments must be prepared for at least another 18-24 months of significant covid 19 activity.

The CIDRAP report compared the current coronavirus pandemic to past influenza outbreaks, stressing that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be compared to SARS or MERS, as these two viruses behaved in “substantially different” ways than the current coronavirus outbreak and that influenza pandemics are more comparable.

Dr. Moore is medical director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Dr. Lipsitch is the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. John Barry is a professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Dr. Osterholm is director of CIDRAP, University of Minnesota Regents Professor, and McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.

Be glad to see any experts you can come up with who have different scientific opinions.

[Ben Franklin]

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...

[Ben Franklin]

So please search ex dr Fauci employee arrested. It is a bit long but WOW,On YouTube it will blow your mind. If someone would post a link if they are able.

Wondering why some people see one person making as unprovable assertion (by the way she just wrote a book - maybe she's hawking) and take it as gospel truth, while ignoring all other scientists. SMH. Talk about herd mentality.

[justjim]

Those who want to join the herd step forward. That’s what I thought.

[golfing eagles]

You asked for epidemiologists expertise, I gave it to you. Now you discount their opinion. Nobody is talking about the end of the world here. If we are in the first few months of a pandemic scenario that could last 2 years, as these epidemiologists say, then saying the fat lady is just warming up is quite logical.

The CIDRAP report stressed that no matter which scenario actually occurs, governments must be prepared for at least another 18-24 months of significant covid 19 activity.

The CIDRAP report compared the current coronavirus pandemic to past influenza outbreaks, stressing that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be compared to SARS or MERS, as these two viruses behaved in “substantially different” ways than the current coronavirus outbreak and that influenza pandemics are more comparable.

Dr. Moore is medical director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). Dr. Lipsitch is the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. John Barry is a professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Dr. Osterholm is director of CIDRAP, University of Minnesota Regents Professor, and McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.

Be glad to see any experts you can come up with who have different scientific opinions.


Not at all. It is an interesting retrospective review of previous pandemics. They don't give a single opinion, they list 3 scenarios, and yes, we still need to be prepared for all 3. But it doesn't mean any of those nicely graphed scenarios will come to pass. What about scenario #4---the pandemic fizzles out and is not heard from again? I find that unlikely given that international travel will resume sooner or later and there are some mutations that may occur. I guess it depends on how you define "the fat lady singing". If it means there are zero cases for 5 years, then she is still singing. If it means the worst is over in 3-4 months, then she might still be whimpering, but all the major arias have been sung.
Most people don't know the difference in various scientific studies, but the best designed ones are multiple university sited, double blinded, placebo controlled prospective studies with at least 2500 patients. This type of retrospective comparison does not lend itself to such rigorous criteria. So take it for what it is worth and what it intended to show, but less so as a predictive indicator.

[tvoyager]

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...
My post was only to add information. Reply’s that degrade an individual should be meet with questions of replying’s own agenda(SMH)

[GoodLife]

Those who want to join the herd step forward. That’s what I thought.

LOL You're part of the herd whether you like it or not. As stated before, Sweden told seniors and people at risk to stay home. They advised younger healthier people it's ok to go out, practice social distancing. You, as a senior or at risk person do not need to catch the disease for herd immunity to take effect. 70-80% is what's required, then virus runs out of hosts and dies.

[GoodLife]

Thanks, but I didn't ask how Sweden was doing it, and you can not say, if one stays home and takes precautions, there is nothing to worry about. One still needs groceries and medicine, at minimal. Even if both are delivered, how many hands have touched the product? The virus stays active up to 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 days on plastic and metal and 4 days on glass.

Now, about my only questions...

I disinfect my groceries after delivery or curbside pickup, you can leave dry goods in garage for a few days. Over 99% of infections are from contact with other people inside buildings. Risk of groceries contamination is very low. Look it up on CDC guidelines.

Didn't answer your question comparing herd immunity to suicide or abortion because it's ridiculous.

[Quixote]

.... this takes the post a little off course, but it is about the Swedes, so I'll share:

Back in the 1900's a manufacturing company in central Massachusetts, where I was raised, sent recruiters to Sweden and brought hundreds of Swedes over to America to work in their factory. Their research had indicated that Swedes were much more inclined to adapt and follow direction and far less likely to organize into a union than other nationalities or the local US workers at that time were. This one company wanted to avoid having to deal with a union. That company ended up with a predominant Swedish workforce and to this day never did unionize. All of the other large manufacturing firms in that same city did unionize.


I'm chuckling while reading this. Back in the 1900s my cousin Joe owned textile mills in Fall River MA; his family were the first developers of tricot, a fabric used for women's undergarments. He gave me a tour of one of the plants including comfortable and attractive employee breakrooms and dining room (I was impressed), and as we walked he brought up the issue of union organizing. He said that he had found an ideal solution to not having it in his plants.

I asked how he managed that. He explained, "I pay my workers more, I provide better benefits, I give them more comfortable facilities, and it benefits me in return because they feel more a part of the business," going on to extol the benefits of employee loyalty. How simple, eh?...

[GoodLife]

Not at all. It is an interesting retrospective review of previous pandemics. They don't give a single opinion, they list 3 scenarios, and yes, we still need to be prepared for all 3. But it doesn't mean any of those nicely graphed scenarios will come to pass. What about scenario #4---the pandemic fizzles out and is not heard from again? I find that unlikely given that international travel will resume sooner or later and there are some mutations that may occur. I guess it depends on how you define "the fat lady singing". If it means there are zero cases for 5 years, then she is still singing. If it means the worst is over in 3-4 months, then she might still be whimpering, but all the major arias have been sung.
Most people don't know the difference in various scientific studies, but the best designed ones are multiple university sited, double blinded, placebo controlled prospective studies with at least 2500 patients. This type of retrospective comparison does not lend itself to such rigorous criteria. So take it for what it is worth and what it intended to show, but less so as a predictive indicator.

Dr Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is 'inevitable' The nation’s top epidemiologist said Tuesday the United States could be in for “a bad fall and a bad winter,” if it's not prepared for a second wave of the virus.

And LOL. Epidemiologists don't conduct double blinded placebo controlled clinical trials to predict the course of pandemics, especially with a new virus. They study past outbreaks that are have similar person to person spread, R factor etc

[Swoop]

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

And you are misusing the numbers. You are using a death rate that is derived by taking the number of people who have tested positive divided by the number of people who were coded as Covid deaths. That is incorrect. You have to use all those infected divided by those who died. If up to 80% are asymptomatic, they would never have been tested. Two independent antibody studies show that more than 50 TIMES more people have the antibodies than have had positive test results.

[amexsbow]

Just came back from Pickleball. What a beautiful day. Each day is a gift. You NEVER know when that gift will end. Live each day to the fullest. When I worked in Law Enforcement I never knew if any day was my last. At first I had a lot of anxiety. But then I realized that one must take chances in life based on what they want in life. Do what is prudent to the extent of your knowledge and risk tolerance. We all have to go in the end.

[GoodLife]

Sweden has a rate of just over 12% deaths per infected, the US is just under 6%. If we followed Sweden's plan we could have conceivably had 2,526,486 infected and 149,620 deaths at this point.

Deaths per million is nothing more than a statistic, and leads to a false sense of security. San Marino has a death rate of 1208/million, over 4 times US and Sweden, which resulted in 41 dead, yes 41!

Deaths per infection is reality!

So it comes down to choice, do I put my money on the chances of getting the virus, or do I go all in on the chances of surviving it.

Numbers don't lie, but they can be misused.

Didn't we go over this already. Death rate per infection is not reality.

Death rate per infection is a statistic skewed by many things including number of tests performed, percentage of deaths that are from nursing homes (most likely to die), and how good your Doctors are.

Death rate per capita is best for judging a country's success in combating a pandemic.

[rmd2]

Until and unless we get some hard figures, some genuine data that can be trusted on who is sick, what they are sick with, what did they die of …., until then, the virologists and epidemiologists with the CDC or WHO with a specialty in the pathogenesis of single stranded RNA viruses will have difficulty with their projections.

I bet a lot of them are ready to BITE.

I don't trust the WHO at all.

[amexsbow]

Could the statistics be skewed? Medicare pays $39,000 per day for Covid patients. Just saying. Money talks....

[chet2020]

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.

South Korea combined their lockdown with massive testing and contact tracing. They stopped the spread with the lockdown, then caught any lingering cases and got COVID positive people off the streets. We've stopped the spread just like South Korea did, but now everyone is just going to be let loose with no testing because of our bumbling the last couple of months. It's a wasted opportunity.

[sallybowron]

Good question but hopefully one of the vaccines being tested now will be available by end of the year and stop the virus in its tracks

I too am hoping that the vaccine is developed soon, but think about it. Where are they going to start using the vaccine . I am guessing it will not be The Villages. It will take months to vaccinate the whole USA and the world will want their vaccines also. We are looking at a year I bet,:pray:

[Tom53]

Didn't we go over this already. Death rate per infection is not reality.

Death rate per infection is a statistic skewed by many things including number of tests performed, percentage of deaths that are from nursing homes (most likely to die), and how good your Doctors are.

Death rate per capita is best for judging a country's success in combating a pandemic.

If you have a known number of deaths, and a known number of infected, the rate is real. You keep discounting nursing homes like those people aren't real. But your per capita reasoning also relies on the unknown numbers while the death per infection rate relies on actual posted numbers, real or not.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

[Ben Franklin]

I disinfect my groceries after delivery or curbside pickup, you can leave dry goods in garage for a few days. Over 99% of infections are from contact with other people inside buildings. Risk of groceries contamination is very low. Look it up on CDC guidelines.

Didn't answer your question comparing herd immunity to suicide or abortion because it's ridiculous.

My question wasn't ridiculous. What is ludicrous, however, is when people think someone's question is ridiculous, or dumb.

[sallybowron]

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred. Why do you think that it will be different than the Villages response to the lockdown. On the occasions that I had to go out (doctor, banking etc) we saw many people in groups, no six feet or masks there. Unfortunately many people here believe we are privileged and don't have to follows directives. That attitude will get more people killed than need to be.

[golfing eagles]

Dr Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is 'inevitable' The nation’s top epidemiologist said Tuesday the United States could be in for “a bad fall and a bad winter,” if it's not prepared for a second wave of the virus.

And LOL. Epidemiologists don't conduct double blinded placebo controlled clinical trials to predict the course of pandemics, especially with a new virus. They study past outbreaks that are have similar person to person spread, R factor etc

Of course Tony has to say that. I take a completely different approach when I'm the guy in charge and will be blamed for anything that goes wrong. And I agree with him, there will most likely be a second wave. The question is whether it will be larger than the first or an insignificant blip on the radar screen.

As far as epidemiologic studies go, are you asking me or telling me???? Because if you're telling, that REALLY would be a LOL :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[golfing eagles]

My question wasn't ridiculous. What is ludicrous, however, is when people think someone's question is ridiculous, or dumb.

Sorry, I have to side with Goodlife on this one. They used to say there are no dumb questions, but in reality, there are, and the jury is still out on this one:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[GoodLife]

Of course Tony has to say that. I take a completely different approach when I'm the guy in charge and will be blamed for anything that goes wrong. And I agree with him, there will most likely be a second wave. The question is whether it will be larger than the first or an insignificant blip on the radar screen.

As far as epidemiologic studies go, are you asking me or telling me???? Because if you're telling, that REALLY would be a LOL :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Tell you what, to further the discussion, can you show us any epidemiologists who say coronavirus will fade away completely soon and die off? The fat lady will sing? It's certainly possible, but I haven't seen any serious studies saying that.

Most I read say it may fade this summer, but will be back in winter unless vaccine or herd immunity.

I'd be glad to hear it. :)

[GoodLife]

It gets worse

Professor Lockdown statement to the Telegraph

Professor Ferguson said: “I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus, and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.”

So he had his lover over after testing positive, symptoms etc and no immunity test.

Rules are for the little guys

[golfing eagles]

Tell you what, to further the discussion, can you show us any epidemiologists who say coronavirus will fade away completely soon and die off? The fat lady will sing? It's certainly possible, but I haven't seen any serious studies saying that.

Most I read say it may fade this summer, but will be back in winter unless vaccine or herd immunity.

I'd be glad to hear it. :)

I'd be glad to hear it too. Unfortunately, no one knows.

[Tom53]

And you are misusing the numbers. You are using a death rate that is derived by taking the number of people who have tested positive divided by the number of people who were coded as Covid deaths. That is incorrect. You have to use all those infected divided by those who died. If up to 80% are asymptomatic, they would never have been tested. Two independent antibody studies show that more than 50 TIMES more people have the antibodies than have had positive test results.

Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

[golfing eagles]

Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

One thing is certain: Dead people don't care which number you use as a denominator

[Two Bills]

It gets worse

Professor Lockdown statement to the Telegraph

Professor Ferguson said: “I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus, and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.”

So he had his lover over after testing positive, symptoms etc and no immunity test.

Rules are for the little guys

I have heard of an antibody test, is this another test?

[GoodLife]

I have heard of an antibody test, is this another test?

Sorry, should have said antibody test.

[Swoop]

Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

So you are choosing to ignore the two independent studies that tested for antibodies? Those extrapolated numbers Show a mortality rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. Even the governor of NY is now acknowledging that there were most likely more than 2.7 million cases of the virus in his state alone.

[Two Bills]

Sorry, should have said antibody test.

Thanks. Thought they had gone a step further!

[Tom53]

So you are choosing to ignore the two independent studies that tested for antibodies? Those extrapolated numbers Show a mortality rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. Even the governor of NY is now acknowledging that there were most likely more than 2.7 million cases of the virus in his state alone.

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.

[Debi-G]

The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...

[justjim]

I too am hoping that the vaccine is developed soon, but think about it. Where are they going to start using the vaccine . I am guessing it will not be The Villages. It will take months to vaccinate the whole USA and the world will want their vaccines also. We are looking at a year I bet,:pray:

Each year we get a flu vaccine and they tell you right up front that it’s at best 50% effective. But, if you get the flu, it will likely be a milder form of the flu strain going around any particular year. Vaccines aside, our best bet for next year is to do everything we possibly can to improve and maintain a strong immune system.

[GoodLife]

The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...

Correct, but he had her over to his home even though he had tested positive and had symptoms "almost" 2 weeks before.

Reminds me of Chris Cuomo's altercation with a bike rider who saw Cuomo, his wife and 3 kids on a lot he owns 30 miles from his home while he was still under quarantine.

A few days later CNN staged a televised "emergence" from his basement quarantine.

[Swoop]

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.
Those studies are actual numbers, but unless you test ever single person in the United States, you have to extrapolate the numbers. That’s pretty basic science.
If you only use those who were sick enough to be tested and then tested positive, and ignore the mild and asymptotic cases, your results will be dramatically skewed.

[Tom53]

Those studies are actual numbers, but unless you test ever single person in the United States, you have to extrapolate the numbers. That’s pretty basic science.
If you only use those who were sick enough to be tested and then tested positive, and ignore the mild and asymptotic cases, your results will be dramatically skewed.
Interesting read..

Why experts are questioning two hyped antibody studies in coronavirus hotspots | World news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford)

Interesting paragraph..

"Both studies used an antibody test made by Premier Biotech company that has not been approved by the FDA and comes with an acknowledgment that it can record false positives."


Just an excerpt, but explains my reasons for being tired of studies.

[GoodLife]

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week

Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern (https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915?utm_source=thdailypm&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&newsletterad=&bcid=ccb9e3fe3a295b0fbc5b4872491caa5c&recip=27890347)

[jimjamuser]

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-06)

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
The UK, USA, and Italy were late to their shutdowns. Only China and S. Korea had a TRUE lockdown. S. Korea was early. They are now playing baseball. The US and UK have not resumed such activities.

[jimjamuser]

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

83985

Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-06)

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
Herd immunity depends on the positive CV people having long term 100% immunity, of which most Medical experts are skeptical. They could be reinfected or transmit it. Many unknowns.

[jimjamuser]

Just a thought, as the virus mutates, and it is thought that it is already a different strain in Europe and US than it was in Asia, and immunity for one strain does not give immunity for the next strain. So Sweden may well have paid all those deaths in vain.
Excellent point.

[jimjamuser]

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.
Yes, excellent point.

[ffresh]

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.

Unfortunately, the numbers are fictitious too. All we know is what we're told - whether it's true or false is another matter.

Fred

[jimjamuser]

Sweden has advantages that we don’t. At any sign of illness they can go on paid sick leave and they have socialized medicine.
A big plus, socialized medicine. This CV emergency reveals that.

[jimjamuser]

The pain will continue until the lesson is learned
Many lessons here.

[ffresh]

The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...

I know the sex drive is powerful, BUT not as powerful as the self-preservation drive. I think we have to conclude that the numbers from his "non-peer-reviewed" paper are lacking in credulity, or, to put in laymen's terms, full of shyte - and he knew it. Many of his predictions in the past have earned the same confidence. :icon_wink:

Fred'

[GoodLife]

Herd immunity depends on the positive CV people having long term 100% immunity, of which most Medical experts are skeptical. They could be reinfected or transmit it. Many unknowns.

They don't need long term immunity, just a few months will do the trick. For SARS, also a coronavirus, the previously infected were found to have an average of 2 years immunity.

Duration of Antibody Responses after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/)

Recent study on coronavirus antibodies

Reassuringly, we found that almost all participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in our study mounted an IgG immune response to this disease.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613v1.full.pdf

[Tom53]

Unfortunately, the numbers are fictitious too. All we know is what we're told - whether it's true or false is another matter.

Fred

They may or may not be fictitious, none of us know for sure.

[GoodLife]

The UK, USA, and Italy were late to their shutdowns. Only China and S. Korea had a TRUE lockdown. S. Korea was early. They are now playing baseball. The US and UK have not resumed such activities.

The first case in China was November 17, of course they are further along the curve.


Plus in China the government can lockdown entire cities plus lock people in their own homes.

[DanBrew]

A vaccine will be released to the public only when the appropriate individuals can profit from it. Oh well, make a buck anyway you can.

[graciegirl]

A vaccine will be released to the public only when the appropriate individuals can profit from it. Oh well, make a buck anyway you can.

I just read post after post of thoughtful people who made excellent sense on this thread. I was thinking this is amazing, so many people who are really thinking along scientific lines, so many people who have common sense and an ability to really see and interpret what is going on.

Then I read this, above. Bet you think "they" are keeping the cure to cancer to themselves too.

Anyway, to all the rest who just posted and gave me hope that the majority of people are thinking people who do not swallow whole ANYTHING...…...I just got slowed down. That's an anonymous forum for ya. Oh please don't put me in time out for saying this.

[chet2020]

Interesting read..

Why experts are questioning two hyped antibody studies in coronavirus hotspots | World news | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford)

Interesting paragraph..

"Both studies used an antibody test made by Premier Biotech company that has not been approved by the FDA and comes with an acknowledgment that it can record false positives."


Just an excerpt, but explains my reasons for being tired of studies.

It is tiresome, but the studies gave us a valuable piece of information - we are not even close to herd immunity. However, the data are indeed problematic to extrapolate hard numbers from (like death rate). We learn and improve the next study.

Roche now has an antibody kit with an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the FDA that claims 100% sensitivity, 99.8% specificity. There are a dozen other antibody kits out there now with EUAs with reasonably good sens/spec. We could now do a much better antibody study.

I'd like to see "someone" do a comprehensive antibody study in a city or county that was a hot spot, but is now under control and the deaths are at the tail end of the curve. Do it in a few different locations. We could then get a firmer idea of what the actual death rate is.