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View Full Version : Nursing home deaths are 50% or more of the total in many states.


GoodLife
05-10-2020, 09:53 AM
We can see from the data that about 80% of all covid 19 deaths are people over 65. The following are calculations of your probability of dying IF infected by covid 19 by age group.

80 + 21.9%
70-79 8%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%
40-49 0.4%
30-39 0.2%
20-29 0.2%
10-19 0.2%
<10 0.1%

So the older you are, the more likely to die from this disease, especially if you have other problems like obesity, diabetes, lung or cardiac problems.

However, what is starting to come out in the data is that a huge percentage of covid 19 deaths is coming from nursing homes. Over 50% in many states. Some states are very slow in reporting these deaths for various reasons, including political ones.

Here is a table calculating percentages of nursing home deaths out of total covid 19 deaths. Look at column G for the percentages attributed to nursing homes out of the totals. Many states are over 50%, some as high as 75-80%

Nursing Home COVID Deaths By State - Google Sheets (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/edit#gid=435667374)

So nursing homes, because of their age cohort and close living conditions, skew the numbers tremendously. So yes you are in danger the older and sicker you might be, but if you live in a single family home your chances are much better than if you are living in a nursing home.

ficoguy
05-10-2020, 09:56 AM
And densely populated neighborhoods with high concentrations of orthodoxy in New Rochelle NY, Brooklyn, NY, Lakewood/Toms River NJ

graciegirl
05-10-2020, 10:08 AM
And densely populated neighborhoods with high concentrations of orthodoxy in New Rochelle NY, Brooklyn, NY, Lakewood/Toms River NJ

Why do you think that? I understand the highly concentrated, but what does their faith have to do with it?

Perhaps you think it may be a certain blood type because of a common ethnicity? I have wondered about that too? Especially that black and brown people who have O+ blood in common are dying in greater numbers according to the very sketchy information I have read............But a lot of Jewish people with the same ethnic background are not conservative.

Is this some new and nasty crap circulating? or is this something to do with science? Or some new conspiracy smeary type thingy...……….. Oh I hope this isn't gonna be a racist mean hearted thing.

Sometimes I don't get things I read. Poor Davem. I nearly jumped down his throat. But I really don't know what you mean Ficoguy about Orthodox neighborhoods. Oh I hope I'm wrong. I have never been in an Orthodox neighborhood. Why would they be dying more?

Two Bills
05-10-2020, 10:26 AM
Many Orthodox Jews, Muslims and Christians put their fate in the hands of their God, carried on in their worship together in large numbers, ignoring all best known at time scientific advice.

Turned out, prayers were not as effective as self isolating.

davem4616
05-10-2020, 11:18 AM
so sad that so many of our elderly have passed in nursing homes without their loved one's being by their side or able to visit them

We were blessed to be able to visit our folks multiple times a week when they were living out the rest of their lives in nursing homes, as did all of our kids...

amazing how many folks are put in nursing homes and forgotten....the year after my mother passed I asked permission and visited the home that she had been in on Christmas Eve dressed in my Santa outfit....I went to every room...the joy on their faces was just
precious...one lady (who had befriended my mom and I'd speak Italian with) said 'I know who you are!'...another patted the bed and said, Santa you can spend the night here (as my wife was laughing hysterically outside in the hall). I think we received more joy that Christmas Eve than we gave to the folks in that nursing home

But back to the OP...these statistics are just one more reason that my wife and I are staying with our "Thelma & Louise" final exit plan....we have absolutely no interest in spending time in a nursing home...and besides, we've never been to the bottom of the Grand Canyon

...and I don't intend upon paying Hertz extra money for 'dropping the car off in a different location'

GoodLife
05-10-2020, 11:28 AM
But these statistics are just one more reason that my wife and I are staying with our "Thelma & Louise" exit plan....absolutely no interest in spending time in a nursing home...and we've never been to the bottom of the Grand Canyon

...and I don't intend upon paying Hertz extra money for 'dropping the car off in a different location'

I like this Thelma and Louise plan. The stats for nursing homes were pretty bad before covid 19 anyway. 53% die within 6 months, 65% within a year. Grand Canyon is a long drive from here so I think I'll just hire someone to come by daily, cook and clean, and buy some really expensive booze.

manaboutown
05-10-2020, 12:58 PM
No one I have ever known moved to a nursing home for rocking good times, to live it up and party hearty. They go because they must due to loss of independence from advanced age related conditions or serious health issues. At that point in life they are especially vulnerable to whatever bad bug comes along. Many small apartments and rooms all packed together, common hallways, dining rooms, elevators and gathering areas as well as staff that live off site coming and going all contribute to risk of communicable infections spreading quickly among residents.

GoodLife
05-10-2020, 01:17 PM
No one I have ever known moved to a nursing home for rocking good times, to live it up and party hearty. They go because they must due to loss of independence from advanced age related conditions or serious health issues. At that point in life they are especially vulnerable to whatever bad bug comes along. Many small apartments and rooms all packed together, common hallways, dining rooms, elevators and gathering areas as well as staff that live off site coming and going all contribute to risk of communicable infections spreading quickly among residents.

No one said they did. The point is that it looks like 50% of covid 19 deaths are coming from nursing homes, probably the biggest bungle of this whole mess. Some states like New York forced nursing homes to accept covid 19 positive seniors. These numbers also scare the heck out of anyone over 65 when their actual chance of catching and dying from the virus is much lower if they live in single family home.

speedo8357
05-10-2020, 01:53 PM
And heaven help you if you wind up in a NY nursing home, which were required to take recovering COVID patients. Now what bright light came up with the idea to stick COVID patients among high risk individuals in densely populated nursing homes!

gadaboutgal
05-10-2020, 01:54 PM
Wondering how the virus got in to the nursing homes to begin with.
Perhaps introduced by a younger person not showing symptoms?

Langwelld
05-10-2020, 04:16 PM
Good information. CDC figures indicate you have a 94% chance of surviving a Covid infection. Taking out the elder population I’m sure that percentage is noticeably higher?

GoodLife
05-10-2020, 05:53 PM
Good information. CDC figures indicate you have a 94% chance of surviving a Covid infection. Taking out the elder population I’m sure that percentage is noticeably higher?

Take out the nursing home population (50% or more of deaths) and your odds get even better.

lwmilo
05-11-2020, 07:06 AM
Dave, great plan.....must consider. B T W loved the movie...

Lorizim
05-11-2020, 07:37 AM
So how did the virus enter the Nursing homes in the first place? Family? Careless Caregivers?

sipops
05-11-2020, 10:09 AM
NYC mayor counted 3700 deaths as covid related because they died at home. This is without any type of autopsy being done and no factual cause of death. IF states were getting money for all those that did not die from covid 19 I bet the numbers would be much lower. Dr. Blix even admitted if a person dies in an auto accident and had a heart condition (but that was not the cause) they would count it as a covid related death.

RH5037
05-11-2020, 10:53 AM
I agree it is higher in nursing homes but I wonder how many of then have DNRs

Topspinmo
05-11-2020, 12:45 PM
We can see from the data that about 80% of all covid 19 deaths are people over 65. The following are calculations of your probability of dying IF infected by covid 19 by age group.

80 + 21.9%
70-79 8%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%
40-49 0.4%
30-39 0.2%
20-29 0.2%
10-19 0.2%
<10 0.1%

So the older you are, the more likely to die from this disease, especially if you have other problems like obesity, diabetes, lung or cardiac problems.

However, what is starting to come out in the data is that a huge percentage of covid 19 deaths is coming from nursing homes. Over 50% in many states. Some states are very slow in reporting these deaths for various reasons, including political ones.

Here is a table calculating percentages of nursing home deaths out of total covid 19 deaths. Look at column G for the percentages attributed to nursing homes out of the totals. Many states are over 50%, some as high as 75-80%

Nursing Home COVID Deaths By State - Google Sheets (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/edit#gid=435667374)

So nursing homes, because of their age cohort and close living conditions, skew the numbers tremendously. So yes you are in danger the older and sicker you might be, but if you live in a single family home your chances are much better than if you are living in a nursing home.

The older you are The more likely you’re going to die Without viruses, nursing homes are higher risk anyway just from neglect.

Few years back was on news at my precious location that person was missing from nursing home. They found the poor sole between bed and wall. Been lying there for two days. Two day and 6 shifts and cleaning crews!

When I was aircraft mechanic I had to account for all my tools and hardware after each job. Something tells me there should been head count before shift changes? So, maybe not all are that bad, but who knows what goes on behind closed doors. I sure there are worse horror stories. But I found that one most horrifying.

Lindamct
05-11-2020, 01:37 PM
Reality:. Less than 1,800 people have been hospitalized in the state of Florida. Our population is over 21,500,000.
Sumter county:. 14 deaths from this virus over the whole season and only 41 hospitalized.

Don't listen to the fear and drama. Logic and Faith can not be found where fear exists.
We live in a beautiful place. Keep living and wash your hands🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Marvic 1
05-11-2020, 02:14 PM
So how did the virus enter the Nursing homes in the first place? Family? Careless Caregivers?

Because a North East State Governor allowed sick Corona Virus patients to be brought into and housed at senior nursing homes...

Barborv
05-11-2020, 02:53 PM
TWO BILLS, That's exactly it. They are still congregating in large numbers.

Boomer
05-11-2020, 02:55 PM
Caregiver jobs in a lot of our country’s nursing homes are very low paying. Turnover is high.

A long time ago, I was told by someone I know who was a nursing home administrator that when choosing a place, it is important to find out if the caregivers there are agency or direct employees of the facility. The answer you want to hear is that those who provide the day-to-day personal care are a part of the directly employed staff and that turnover is low.

If I were asking questions now, I would want to know if benefits are provided to employees at all levels, not just the top paid. That would be an excellent way to attract and keep good employees.

You might find that the therapy department is outsourced — PT, OT, Speech, etc. — and that can work just fine as long as the company used has a longstanding relationship with the facility and the same therapists are in the same place, long term.

I know a caregiver who really wanted to work in a nursing home. She was willing to drive past many of them in the city, about 15 extra miles, one-way, to get to a place where she was better paid and treated as a valuable part of the staff. Additionally and importantly, it is a place where the patient ratio is not insane, allowing her to do the job she wants to do — and to do it well. She is a kind soul who is allowed to blossom with the right employer.

Then there are the for-proft, non-profit worlds to navigate. Also, some nursing homes are strictly private-pay. Some are mostly Medicaid paid. There are also those where residents start as private pay, but do not get kicked out when the money runs out.

A continuum of care is where you can go to a private residence first, but as more care is needed, more care is available. Those tend to be the most expensive.

My point is that in all too many nursing homes, the frontline employees are too often underpaid and under appreciated. Attracting good employees and keeping them should be of top importance. At the cost that nursing homes charge — where does all that money go. (rhetorical question)

Medicare.gov has a section reporting on nursing homes, “Nursing Home Compare.” If you start looking at that, you might learn more than you ever wanted to know.

Lindamct
05-12-2020, 07:34 AM
I don't know about NY, but If you Google Florida Covid19 Dashboard you can get real numbers even by county. Keep in mind we have a population of about 21,500,000 and these numbers are cumulative since January. 1800 deaths and 8000 hospitalized. THE NUMBERS ARE DOWN!! Let's go back to living.
Our hospitals are closing and our Docs and nurses are being furloughed.
Let's just pray or hope, whichever you like, that a health related desaster does not happen now.