Stock Markets

[tvbound]

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cashed-covid-19-rally-040028323.html)

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?

[Two Bills]

Been in cash since retired 25 years ago.
No spectacular gains, but no catastrophic losses either.
Just sat back, played golf, travelled, and watched the world go by!

[retiredguy123]

Actually, the S&P 500 Index is only down about one percent over the past 12 months. The only thing that might make sense would be to convert your stocks to cash, because the bond prices are already too high with no place to go but down. I don't plan to do anything because selling stocks would mean paying a huge amount in capital gains taxes, and I don't need the money. Nobody knows where stock prices will go in the future, so I think it is a personal decision to make. I usually don't try to predict the stock market, but it does seem strange to me that the stock market has stayed as high as it has recently.

[Stu from NYC]

I believe in the future of the US and think that in the long run the stock market will continue to go up with peaks and valleys.

Best thing to do is find no load mutual funds and invest for the long run and not to try to outsmart the market.

[Tom52]

Unless you sold just prior to the recent downturn you locked in your loss and have already missed some of the recovery.
Anyone that gets nervous and feels they must sell during a market panic obviously did not understand their risk tolerance. Knowing your market risk tolerance and establishing the appropriate equity percentage is the best way to position yourself to be able to stay the course and still sleep well during market gyrations.

The market goes up and down but over time it has always been an upwards direction. This time it will do the same. Question is how long will it take? If you cannot accurately predict when to time the market you will likely do worse than staying the course. There is much data out there to support this.

[tvbound]

Unless you sold just prior to the recent downturn you locked in your loss and have already missed some of the recovery.
Anyone that gets nervous and feels they must sell during a market panic obviously did not understand their risk tolerance. Knowing your market risk tolerance and establishing the appropriate equity percentage is the best way to position yourself to be able to stay the course and still sleep well during market gyrations.

The market goes up and down but over time it has always been an upwards direction. This time it will do the same. Question is how long will it take? If you cannot accurately predict when to time the market you will likely do worse than staying the course. There is much data out there to support this.

I went to cash last week, which is what precipitated my thought on starting a thread about it now. As I mentioned, I hung on when it went all the way down into the 6,000's and was glad I did as I watched it steadily climb out of the low's of the Great Recession. Ironically though, given that when I started this thread the DOW was almost unmoved at about 24,100 and it closed about 400 points lower after I started this thread, so maybe there's some secret Street followers of this site? lol

I also forgot to mention in my initial post that even before Covid-19 happened, I thought the market was way overvalued and was due for a major correction sometime this year anyway. While we'll just have to wait and see what happens in the coming months, it's comforting to know that even if I miss out on a huge run-up (highly unlikely IMHO) - I'm not going to be checking every day, nor be hurt if the bottom does fall out.

[davem4616]

after the 2008 dip we put enough cash into annuities so that we never had to worry again about where our next hot dog was coming from

I recall one of my doctors equating keeping his retirement money in the stock market as akin to betting in a casino

we have a mixed portfolio...actually more complex than I wanted...but it works for us

we actually believe that things will eventually come back....and we've been cherry picking some nice stocks lately that we believe will weather this storm

it all comes down to how much risk you're willing to take...and how much free cash you actually have

[Stu from NYC]

Important to have a safety net but for us we think we cannot time the market and just invest in good mutual funds with good record of success and if they do not perform adjust portfolio accordingly

[DDVeteran]

Three words...certificates of deposit. Nabbed a 5 year 4.2% in July of 2018. Just hoping 2023 brings back an interest rate normalcy.

[J1ceasar]

Theres a rule of 100 for investing. Take your age subtracted from 100 the remaining amount is what you can invest in the stock market. Or think of it this way if you lost everything you have invested in the stock market what will you have left to live on comfortably.
While it is true the stock market has averaged about 8% over its life there have been long periods of minimum growth. Well most of us no longer will be going to work there is no true opportunity 2 have wages deposited in the future so risk tolerance is truly what you have to think about

[Stu from NYC]

Theres a rule of 100 for investing. Take your age subtracted from 100 the remaining amount is what you can invest in the stock market. Or think of it this way if you lost everything you have invested in the stock market what will you have left to live on comfortably.
While it is true the stock market has averaged about 8% over its life there have been long periods of minimum growth. Well most of us no longer will be going to work there is no true opportunity 2 have wages deposited in the future so risk tolerance is truly what you have to think about

When most of us only lived to about 65 the rule of 100 made sense but now that we live longer we do need growth and the vast bulk of money earning 2% or so will not cut it. After inflation and taxes that 2% means over time your funds have less value.

Someone 65 will be around another 20 years or more and their funds must last for at least that much time.

[Rich42]

Every time a stock trades there is a winner and a loser. I love those cash people, they just keep feeding that loser group!

[nn0wheremann]

On March 31 I was down almost 25 percent from December 31. On April 30 that loss was cut to less than 12 percent. Bargains in the Blue Chips. I see no sense in capitalization of that loss.

[La lamy]

Three words...certificates of deposit. Nabbed a 5 year 4.2% in July of 2018. Just hoping 2023 brings back an interest rate normalcy.

Wow! Good for you,

[SacDQ]

Albert Einstein said, “When the number of factors coming into play…is too large, scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.”

[FredJacobs]

Depending on when you cashed out, hopefully you didn't take your paper losses and make them into actual losses. Will you return to the stock market? How will you know when the right time is to get back in? When you see a solid upward trend or when the market is back to where it was?

I spent 20 years as a Financial Consultant. I have faith in the market and have never sold during any of the market downturns. If you look at a graph of market performance over the last 70 years, you will see some serious market dips. You will also see that these are followed by recoveries that go well beyond the previous market highs. I have never panicked during a serious preferring to "ride it out." This way, I will never miss the upturn or have to worry when is the right time to get back in. During this current crisis and the market reaching "Bear" territory, I held my position, continued to receive dividends and, as of today, have recovered over 70% of my paper loss. I have good feelings about being made whole before year end.

[retiredguy123]

I think the overall economy will take several years to recover in terms of jobs, bankrupcies, business profits, tax revenues, etc. But, I am surprised that the stock market does not seem to have "factored in" these future economic hard times. The S&P Index today is at about the same level that it was a year ago, when the econony was great and no one had even heard about the Coronavirus. I don't understand it, but it just seems very unusual to me.

[Stu from NYC]

Depending on when you cashed out, hopefully you didn't take your paper losses and make them into actual losses. Will you return to the stock market? How will you know when the right time is to get back in? When you see a solid upward trend or when the market is back to where it was?

I spent 20 years as a Financial Consultant. I have faith in the market and have never sold during any of the market downturns. If you look at a graph of market performance over the last 70 years, you will see some serious market dips. You will also see that these are followed by recoveries that go well beyond the previous market highs. I have never panicked during a serious preferring to "ride it out." This way, I will never miss the upturn or have to worry when is the right time to get back in. During this current crisis and the market reaching "Bear" territory, I held my position, continued to receive dividends and, as of today, have recovered over 70% of my paper loss. I have good feelings about being made whole before year end.

No idea if we will be made whole by the market by the end of the year but agree with holding the course and riding it out.

Most brilliant people in the world cannot always time the market how can the rest of us?

[LSTOWELL]

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cashed-covid-19-rally-040028323.html)

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?

Exactly... Did that last month and happy to sit idle till after the election and a vaccination...
Easier to sleep at night

[LSTOWELL]

Actually, the S&P 500 Index is only down about one percent over the past 12 months. The only thing that might make sense would be to convert your stocks to cash, because the bond prices are already too high with no place to go but down. I don't plan to do anything because selling stocks would mean paying a huge amount in capital gains taxes, and I don't need the money. Nobody knows where stock prices will go in the future, so I think it is a personal decision to make. I usually don't try to predict the stock market, but it does seem strange to me that the stock market has stayed as high as it has recently.

Except for IRAs...no penalty to do that....cash out and wait till things quiet down then go back to mutual funds or stocks

[Stu from NYC]

Except for IRAs...no penalty to do that....cash out and wait till things quiet down then go back to mutual funds or stocks

People call that sell low buy hi.

[jedalton]

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cashed-covid-19-rally-040028323.html)

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?
the only problem you have is when do you get back in? You want to buy when stocks are on sale. I'm up $30,000 in last 4 months. Bought amzn, goog, tsla fb when they were very lows. it a 3-5 year hold on these stocks

[chrissy2231]

Buy physical commodity gold & silver. They will sky rocket like they did in the 1980s.

[vzw1pr]

Very simply, if your allocation keeps you up worrying about your wealth you are not balanced for your risk tolerance. This is a very basic fact of investing. Remember, when seeking financial advice what is good for one is not necessarily good for you! The bottom line its YOUR money.

[dougawhite]

For those waiting for the next major drop in the market it's simple. Just wait until I decide to buy back into the market. Guaranteed a huge drop will occur within days, or even hours of that moment.

[TABOR8]

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cashed-covid-19-rally-040028323.html)

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?
Do you have to pay a penalty to the investment company if you cash out?

[Jcreason]

So in your team!!!

[tvbound]

Do you have to pay a penalty to the investment company if you cash out?

I didn't actually "cash out" (take a distribution from) anything and therefore capital gains and/or gross income at the end of the year is unaffected. I just put all of it in a different fund, whose goal is to basically dog-paddle in place.

Looking at the DJIA just now (down 484 as of 1:40PM), maybe it was bad ju-ju even starting this thread. :doh:

[oldkatz]

Still spending and buying what I want only now online and I love the home delivery

[mmastin]

Hi, my name is Mike. I read all of the information and as a matter of fact, there is a lot of misconception as to rates of returns and fees.
I've been an accountant for over 40 years and have studied these investments as per my job for 40 years. There has never been any body that has made any where close to 8% return per year. In fact, the largest I've ever seen is 1% per year. The actual way to determine this is simple interest that every one learned in high school. Market value minus your cost basis = unrealized gain or loss divided by the number of years you have had the money invested.
The other thing I want to mention is the actual fees charged by mutual funds are not 1% or .5% per year. It is a deception. The real thing is expenses are always ratio'd against income, never assets, and when you look up the annual reports of each fund, including Vanguard, you will see the "expense to income ratio" is more like 60% of the income. Therefore, they take around 6-7% of your money every year before you make anything. So the market is going down, you still lose an additional 7%. Since the high of the DOW and the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, which is 95% of the market, it has lost as of today 21%, it will take you 30% to gain it back, but what are you gaining back to? A 1% per year rate of return.
These are just facts, not lies, that are presented to you by brokerage firms and mutual fund companies as they do not have a fiduciary responsibility, like accountants or doctors do, which means they can lie to you. There are many lawsuits currently going on that "so called financial advisors" are suing the department of labor not to implement the fiduciary law. In other words, they want to lie to you. These are not opinions. They are facts.
If you have any other questions regarding any of this, feel free to reach out to me via private message.

-- Mike Mastin
Accountant

[retiredguy123]

Hi, my name is Mike. I read all of the information and as a matter of fact, there is a lot of misconception as to rates of returns and fees.
I've been an accountant for over 40 years and have studied these investments as per my job for 40 years. There has never been any body that has made any where close to 8% return per year. In fact, the largest I've ever seen is 1% per year. The actual way to determine this is simple interest that every one learned in high school. Market value minus your cost basis = unrealized gain or loss divided by the number of years you have had the money invested.
The other thing I want to mention is the actual fees charged by mutual funds are not 1% or .5% per year. It is a deception. The real thing is expenses are always ratio'd against income, never assets, and when you look up the annual reports of each fund, including Vanguard, you will see the "expense to income ratio" is more like 60% of the income. Therefore, they take around 6-7% of your money every year before you make anything. So the market is going down, you still lose an additional 7%. Since the high of the DOW and the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, which is 95% of the market, it has lost as of today 21%, it will take you 30% to gain it back, but what are you gaining back to? A 1% per year rate of return.
These are just facts, not lies, that are presented to you by brokerage firms and mutual fund companies as they do not have a fiduciary responsibility, like accountants or doctors do, which means they can lie to you. There are many lawsuits currently going on that "so called financial advisors" are suing the department of labor not to implement the fiduciary law. In other words, they want to lie to you. These are not opinions. They are facts.
If you have any other questions regarding any of this, feel free to reach out to me via private message.

-- Mike Mastin
Accountant
Sorry, but I don't understand anything in your post. Where should people invest their money?

[mistervin]

Thanks

[Stu from NYC]

Hi, my name is Mike. I read all of the information and as a matter of fact, there is a lot of misconception as to rates of returns and fees.
I've been an accountant for over 40 years and have studied these investments as per my job for 40 years. There has never been any body that has made any where close to 8% return per year. In fact, the largest I've ever seen is 1% per year. The actual way to determine this is simple interest that every one learned in high school. Market value minus your cost basis = unrealized gain or loss divided by the number of years you have had the money invested.
The other thing I want to mention is the actual fees charged by mutual funds are not 1% or .5% per year. It is a deception. The real thing is expenses are always ratio'd against income, never assets, and when you look up the annual reports of each fund, including Vanguard, you will see the "expense to income ratio" is more like 60% of the income. Therefore, they take around 6-7% of your money every year before you make anything. So the market is going down, you still lose an additional 7%. Since the high of the DOW and the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, which is 95% of the market, it has lost as of today 21%, it will take you 30% to gain it back, but what are you gaining back to? A 1% per year rate of return.
These are just facts, not lies, that are presented to you by brokerage firms and mutual fund companies as they do not have a fiduciary responsibility, like accountants or doctors do, which means they can lie to you. There are many lawsuits currently going on that "so called financial advisors" are suing the department of labor not to implement the fiduciary law. In other words, they want to lie to you. These are not opinions. They are facts.
If you have any other questions regarding any of this, feel free to reach out to me via private message.

-- Mike Mastin
Accountant

Sorry do not believe mutual funds take anywhere close to 7% in fees

[jimjamuser]

Hi, my name is Mike. I read all of the information and as a matter of fact, there is a lot of misconception as to rates of returns and fees.
I've been an accountant for over 40 years and have studied these investments as per my job for 40 years. There has never been any body that has made any where close to 8% return per year. In fact, the largest I've ever seen is 1% per year. The actual way to determine this is simple interest that every one learned in high school. Market value minus your cost basis = unrealized gain or loss divided by the number of years you have had the money invested.
The other thing I want to mention is the actual fees charged by mutual funds are not 1% or .5% per year. It is a deception. The real thing is expenses are always ratio'd against income, never assets, and when you look up the annual reports of each fund, including Vanguard, you will see the "expense to income ratio" is more like 60% of the income. Therefore, they take around 6-7% of your money every year before you make anything. So the market is going down, you still lose an additional 7%. Since the high of the DOW and the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, which is 95% of the market, it has lost as of today 21%, it will take you 30% to gain it back, but what are you gaining back to? A 1% per year rate of return.
These are just facts, not lies, that are presented to you by brokerage firms and mutual fund companies as they do not have a fiduciary responsibility, like accountants or doctors do, which means they can lie to you. There are many lawsuits currently going on that "so called financial advisors" are suing the department of labor not to implement the fiduciary law. In other words, they want to lie to you. These are not opinions. They are facts.
If you have any other questions regarding any of this, feel free to reach out to me via private message.

-- Mike Mastin
Accountant
am pretty sure that Warren Buffet makes over 1% per year.

[tvbound]

am pretty sure that Warren Buffet makes over 1% per year.

I'm pretty sure, that you are absolutely correct.

I have to say though, I found it amusing reading Mr. Mastin's convoluted and amazingly incorrect analysis regarding investing.

[tvbound]

The latest jobs report shows almost 3M more are out of work just last week, so it's hard to imagine that the markets won't react to that.

I think we would be doing well, if even 75% of those jobs come back after a full reopening. My fingers are crossed.

[Stu from NYC]

I'm pretty sure, that you are absolutely correct.

I have to say though, I found it amusing reading Mr. Mastin's convoluted and amazingly incorrect analysis regarding investing.

Was scratching the remaining hair on my head constantly while reading it.

[tophcfa]

Call me old school, but I have always believed the value of any stock should be discounted future earnings. Future earnings are of course an estimate, but it is very reasonable to expect most companies future earnings to be much lower in light of the global economic upheaval caused by Covid 19. The rate used to discount future earnings should represent a risk free rate (US Treasury rate) appropriately adjusted for risk. Again, in light of the incredible amount of uncertainty currently existing, a much higher risk premium needs to be added to the discount rate. So lower expected earnings and much more uncertainty means stock prices SHOULD BE much lower. However, that’s not the case.

The current market represents values boosted by the Federal Reserve pumping absurd amounts of money into the system to artificially support the market above what the underlying fundamentals justify. This is not sustainable, very dangerous, and the cost of this will come back to haunt future generations. You know something is very wrong when the market does best when we get bad economic numbers, because that gives the market comfort that the Federal Reserve will keep acting irresponsibly. This is VERY SHORTSIGHTED!

[Rlord]

I'm in a similar situation but we sold and bought a home recently in the Villages. Things are crazy in the stock market and it may be overvalued. Thinking about selling everything and going into cash since the market has regained and because of market uncertainty .

I've put stop loss limits on some big gainers like Amazon and I'm selling aggressive covered calls in hopes of getting income on the looser stocks that I own. Also selling puts to create income instead of going to cash. Some sectors are doing fine but I will continue to be vigilant.

[Stu from NYC]

I'm in a similar situation but we sold and bought a home recently in the Villages. Things are crazy in the stock market and it may be overvalued. Thinking about selling everything and going into cash since the market has regained and because of market uncertainty .

I've put stop loss limits on some big gainers like Amazon and I'm selling aggressive covered calls in hopes of getting income on the looser stocks that I own. Also selling puts to create income instead of going to cash. Some sectors are doing fine but I will continue to be vigilant.

Too complicated to my way of thinking

[Duane McCartney]

I have been out of the market for over 5 years now as the market is just too much of a roller coaster ride as I was nearing retirement age. I moved all my retirement funds into different real estate investments. I have a diversified portfolio among office buildings, apartment building, trailer parks, and I own a lot of mortgage notes. As a former landlord, I discovered that being the banker (lender) on a property is far better than being the landlord (owner) of a property. The mortgage note business has changed my life for the better and has allowed me to retire without financial worry.

[tvbound]

Contently standing on the sidelines and watching the DJIA this morning, only one word comes to mind.


Icarus.

[TNLAKEPANDA]

50/50 annuities and index funds. The annuity returned 14% between 2/19 and 2/20.

[retiredguy123]

50/50 annuities and index funds. The annuity returned 14% between 2/19 and 2/20.
If you are referring to a stock market based indexed annuity, a 14 percent return was about 6 percent less than the S&P 500 return for that period. But, you really can't calculate the return on an annuity for an arbitrary one year period. There are so many fees, surrender penalties, loopholes, etc. And, the guarantee that you will not lose money usually only applies to how much you invested vs how much you cash in years later and does not include the fees. Annuities are so deceptive that the companies that sell them will not even allow you to read the contract until you have already bought it. I have asked several insurance companies to send me a copy of their annuity contract, and they all refused to send it to me.

[tophcfa]

Was scratching the remaining hair on my head constantly while reading it.

The only thing the post actually explains is that one should not take investment advise from an accountant.

[Fishers2tall]

For those waiting for the next major drop in the market it's simple. Just wait until I decide to buy back into the market. Guaranteed a huge drop will occur within days, or even hours of that moment.

:clap2::clap2::clap2::clap2:

I thought I was the only one that happened too !!!

[Paper1]

It seems markets have abandoned fundamentals. Government spending and Fed are the drivers. That said I’m not smart enough to understand this transition. I’m glad I’m not 40 pumping a large percentage of my income into the market with a long term view. Nothing about market today is long term. IMHO

[Stu from NYC]

It seems markets have abandoned fundamentals. Government spending and Fed are the drivers. That said I’m not smart enough to understand this transition. I’m glad I’m not 40 pumping a large percentage of my income into the market with a long term view. Nothing about market today is long term. IMHO

That is why dollar cost averaging works

[Plinker]

The only thing the post actually explains is that one should not take investment advise from an accountant.

Amen. Thank God he’s not my accountant. Runs ads all the time in the Daily Sun. He is not a CPA!

[skyking]

Compared to their all time highs:

DOW 86.4%

NASDAQ 95.6%

S&P 89.5%

We are just shy of "correction" territory.

[skyking]

It seems markets have abandoned fundamentals. Government spending and Fed are the drivers. That said I’m not smart enough to understand this transition. I’m glad I’m not 40 pumping a large percentage of my income into the market with a long term view. Nothing about market today is long term. IMHO

Long term is not an issue. Twenty five years from now investments will be up. Short term is the concern. Sell or invest now or in a month. Who knows?

[Stu from NYC]

Long term is not an issue. Twenty five years from now investments will be up. Short term is the concern. Sell or invest now or in a month. Who knows?

IMHO things are looking up right now however do as you think best as it is your money

[CFP Advisor]

50/50 annuities and index funds. The annuity returned 14% between 2/19 and 2/20.
Could you please share the name of the Insurance Company and the Type of Annuity you invested into? Example: Was it a Fixed Index Annuity or a Variable Annuity. Also share what Index you used or the percent you invested in Stock mutual funds inside the Variable Annuity.
That is a nice return and I think all of us are curious how you allocated the money.
Thanks for sharing!

[skyking]

June 5, 2020 9:40am

DOW 27,015

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

5 index funds covering about everything, same amount of money goes in each month , unless they send me something , I never look

[davem4616]

I've always followed the advice I received when I was in my 20's... "bulls and bears make money, pigs don't"

That's a rule of thumb that has worked for me...when a stock reaches a 20% gain, I usually get out....however if it's a growth stock in a company/industry that I really sense is going to continue to grow, or they pay a really nice dividend, I hang on

With everything that is going on now and with so many unknowns about what may/may not happen between now and year end, we've temporarily pulled all but 7% of our investable assets out of stocks. Today the fund managers and institutional investment houses have so many algorithms in their buy/sell programs that by the time I read about an issue impacting a stock or the market, the big guys already dumped their shares in some other market while I was asleep

We had a sizable cash position sitting on the side before this latest downturn...(pure luck, wife wanted to change her brokerage house and advisor and had cashed out of a 'managed' portfolio in her SEP)...so we cherry picked some nice opportunities, made a quick 14% and got back out of the market. Again, pure luck and will NEVER happen again.

[valuemkt]

The correct investment for retirees (actually anyone) is the one that allows them to Sleep Well at Night (SWAN). In my short time in The Villages, I've come across Day traders, financial experts, Active and former Real Estate investors of all types, and people content in keeping their hard earned savings squirreled away under their mattress. As long as your activities match your return expectations, you can sleep well at night and be just as happy and correct as the next person

[skyking]

5 index funds covering about everything, same amount of money goes in each month , unless they send me something , I never look

I agree. Most of my money is in index fund ETFs. The only stock I own is one which I accumulated as part of my compensation.

[anothersteve]

In times like these, you can always bet on gun and ammo stocks.
Even anti gunners will invest just to make the cash.

You can't make this stuff up !
Steve

[Mendy]

While the 40%+ recovery in 80 days is unprecedented, remember that the Fed is heavily subsidizing risk assets (stocks) amidst a stream of bad financial news. Also remember that other subsidies (i.e. extra $600 UE benefits) expire on 7/31. Will be interesting to watch the jobs report in August. Remain cautious at least until after the election and likely into Q1 2021. Hopefully we won't have a double dip, but wouldn't surprise me.

[Stu from NYC]

While the 40%+ recovery in 80 days is unprecedented, remember that the Fed is heavily subsidizing risk assets (stocks) amidst a stream of bad financial news. Also remember that other subsidies (i.e. extra $600 UE benefits) expire on 7/31. Will be interesting to watch the jobs report in August. Remain cautious at least until after the election and likely into Q1 2021. Hopefully we won't have a double dip, but wouldn't surprise me.

Only way we get a double dip is if we get a second wave and at same time less progress in treatment and vaccine than they are saying.

[ColdNoMore]

While the 40%+ recovery in 80 days is unprecedented, remember that the Fed is heavily subsidizing risk assets (stocks) amidst a stream of bad financial news. Also remember that other subsidies (i.e. extra $600 UE benefits) expire on 7/31. Will be interesting to watch the jobs report in August. Remain cautious at least until after the election and likely into Q1 2021. Hopefully we won't have a double dip, but wouldn't surprise me.

That's exactly the way I see it and the reason I got out and am standing on the sidelines... for the foreseeable future.

[Kenswing]

Only way we get a double dip is if we get a second wave and at same time less progress in treatment and vaccine than they are saying.
Even if we have a second wave I doubt the country will be buffaloed into shutting down again.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The only thing the post actually explains is that one should not take investment advise from an accountant.

Very true! An accountant knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing! I work in a group of them at the moment, and its a very painful and tedious experience arguing over how certain activities and costs go in which bucket, legally and illegally.

sportsguy

[skyking]

That's exactly the way I see it and the reason I got out and am standing on the sidelines... for the foreseeable future.

Wall Street closed out a monster August on Monday, with major benchmarks notching their best month in at least 20 years, bolstered by ultra-accomodative Federal Reserve policy, moderating coronavirus infections and rising optimism for a COVID-19 vaccine that may backstop economic growth.