Where Florida's spike is coming from

[GoodLife]

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Incubation period is UP TO 14 days. The George Floyd protests didn't occur "up to 14 days" ago. Also, those counties have had the most cases from the beginning, this is just more of the same.

In addition, it was around the same period of time (up to 14 days ago) that the Governor relaxed restrictions on staying home.

I'm sure the protests contributed to the added cases. But there would've been a new wave of cases, ESPECIALLY in the above-mentioned counties, even if there were no protests.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

We'll be able to draw a more informed conclusion as to whether the spike is attributable to the Floyd protests or the reopening a little later. If the percent positive on the state's Covid-19 dashboard goes down steadily after about June 19-20, it will be a pretty good indication the upsurge was due to the protests...and will not bode well for starting up concerts again.

However, if the numbers do come down in a week or so, the stock market and the rest of the country will breathe a sigh of relief that the reopening wasn't as ill-advised as some thought. That is, until the next wave in the fall.

[GoodLife]

Incubation period is UP TO 14 days. The George Floyd protests didn't occur "up to 14 days" ago. Also, those counties have had the most cases from the beginning, this is just more of the same.

In addition, it was around the same period of time (up to 14 days ago) that the Governor relaxed restrictions on staying home.

I'm sure the protests contributed to the added cases. But there would've been a new wave of cases, ESPECIALLY in the above-mentioned counties, even if there were no protests.

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds
The median incubation period of COVID-19 from exposure to the onset of symptoms is 5.1 days

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds | Hub (https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/09/coronavirus-incubation-period/)

New cases in Dade County were 517 on June 12. During the 2 weeks prior to that date they were ranging from 200-300 so no, this was a big spike and not "more of the same"

[PennBF]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

[GoodLife]

We'll be able to draw a more informed conclusion as to whether the spike is attributable to the Floyd protests or the reopening a little later. If the percent positive on the state's Covid-19 dashboard goes down steadily after about June 19-20, it will be a pretty good indication the upsurge was due to the protests...and will not bode well for starting up concerts again.

However, if the numbers do come down in a week or so, the stock market and the rest of the country will breathe a sigh of relief that the reopening wasn't as ill-advised as some thought. That is, until the next wave in the fall.

I don't think your assumptions are correct. If a protester gets infected, he may show symptoms 5-6 days later or he may be asymptomatic. Either way, he can infect others he has contact with, and then they take 5-6 days to show symptoms. And so on.

[Stu from NYC]

Be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[GoodLife]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

This has been going on for more than 2 months. Most people in TV are 65 plus and if they get so much as the sniffles, they are going to get tested. If there was a large scale infection of Villagers we would know about it by now.

[claricecolin]

The current spike now is most likely from Memorial day weekend. Numbers in the coming next 2 weeks are most likely from the protests and more things opening up.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

I don't think your assumptions are correct. If a protester gets infected, he may show symptoms 5-6 days later or he may be asymptomatic. Either way, he can infect others he has contact with, and then they take 5-6 days to show symptoms. And so on.

You may be right about exponential spread. But I'm leaning toward your side, GoodLife (if I'm interpreting your "side" correctly) - I tend to think the uptick is because of the protests, or at least I'm curious to find out. What data do you think we need then, and when, to identify the protests as the cause of the upsurge, if indeed any data will point to the protests as the cause?

Or, in your opinion, will the cause of the uptick forever remain unknown, and your message is merely to point to Florida's population centers, rather than an event, to explain the upsurge?

[Fairtoall]

Blackbird. Said in such a complete and logical way without any fat, posturing or hate showing that I can't imagine anyone alive not agreeing with your comment unless they only care about themselves and always have. Facts are wonderful. It ruins the ability to lie to yourself and have to endure the demons that haunt you when you can't sleep at night.

Well put and we all thank you.

[iht2209]

Lake county also had a raise in cases.

[NormaKW]

Agree

[Beyond The Wall]

I disagree. How can it be acceptable to gather in large groups, not wearing your precious masks, especially in areas with the highest concentration of the virus? As it is said, “ Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” The country and state listened to the “ Experts”, ( wrong at least 50% of the time) in March. All should never let it happen again. Bottom line, spike is from protesters .

[elevatorman]

This page also has a lot of data. Enter county at upper right, then click tabs across the bottom.
Experience (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/)

[GoodLife]

Lake county also had a raise in cases.

Lots of protests in Lake County, here's one in Clermont

84646

[Girlcopper]

This has been going on for more than 2 months. Most people in TV are 65 plus and if they get so much as the sniffles, they are going to get tested. If there was a large scale infection of Villagers we would know about it by now.
Exactly correct. Broward and Dade have a large population of tourists, and seasonal residents. Yeah, TV does too but So. fl is more densely populated. Those counties have been the highest in the state since this began so nothing has changed. They have increased the amount of testing areas so, of course, more tests more positives probably asystemic. So, if you want more testing in TV expect your positive results will soar

[raney3099]

We do. The urgent care on 42 by Mulberry you just walk in no appt. and get tested.

[17362]

We'll be able to draw a more informed conclusion as to whether the spike is attributable to the Floyd protests or the reopening a little later. If the percent positive on the state's Covid-19 dashboard goes down steadily after about June 19-20, it will be a pretty good indication the upsurge was due to the protests...and will not bode well for starting up concerts again.

However, if the numbers do come down in a week or so, the stock market and the rest of the country will breathe a sigh of relief that the reopening wasn't as ill-advised as some thought. That is, until the next wave in the fall.

And let’s not forget Father’s Day... typically multiunit families get together. You know like Christmas and Easter.

[Bethwill]

I disagree. How can it be acceptable to gather in large groups, not wearing your precious masks, especially in areas with the highest concentration of the virus? As it is said, “ Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” The country and state listened to the “ Experts”, ( wrong at least 50% of the time) in March. All should never let it happen again. Bottom line, spike is from protesters .
I had heard that spike is a combination from migrant camps, protesters, AND more testing. No one thing. Live life with common sense.

[Mardarlowe]

Can't have a funeral but by all means a protest is acceptable. Comical.

[Andyb]

The re-opening was needed to save the economy. The protest only hurt everything, as most of these people don’t work and feed off the Government.
Since there is more testing, more cases. Really need to look at the number of hospitalization, to get a better picture of what is happening.

[GoodLife]

You may be right about exponential spread. But I'm leaning toward your side, GoodLife (if I'm interpreting your "side" correctly) - I tend to think the uptick is because of the protests, or at least I'm curious to find out. What data do you think we need then, and when, to identify the protests as the cause of the upsurge, if indeed any data will point to the protests as the cause?

Or, in your opinion, will the cause of the uptick forever remain unknown, and your message is merely to point to Florida's population centers, rather than an event, to explain the upsurge?

Without contact tracing, it's difficult to know source of infection, and doing contact tracing in a protest of thousands of people is probably impossible.

When your average time from exposure to symptoms is 5-6 days, and you get a large spike 5-6 days after huge protests it's a pretty good indicator.

Florida began reopening on May 4, if that is the cause why did it take until June 12 for a spike? Largest spikes on June 12 were in Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties and those counties are under tighter reopening restrictions than the rest of Florida.

[GoodLife]

The current spike now is most likely from Memorial day weekend. Numbers in the coming next 2 weeks are most likely from the protests and more things opening up.

If it was Memorial Day weekend (May23-25) the spike would happen before June 12.

Maybe I need to define what averages and medians mean?

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days. Overall, fewer than 2.5 percent of infected people started showing symptoms within 2.2 days, and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.

[sparky4840]

I heard. More rumors and fake news.

[coconutmama]

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf

We had a BLM rally here in TV on Sunday, plus a Villagers for Trump rally on the same day. However I believe most attendees were more cautious & respectful as far as masks than the protests outside of TV. Let’s see if we have a spike at the end of the month. Of course TV has had more grandchildren & guests this month than we’ve had since January, so that will muddy the factors. Not to mention more driveway parties without social distancing lately, and restaurants/stores relaxing masks...as it is said, “time will tell”

[jlo2012]

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf
I am not certain, but three relatives of mine recently tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19. They were never tested for the virus. They all had mild symptoms and have since recovered. They all received calls from the health department and are now part of the COVID-19 statistics. How many others are in the same situation but no longer contagious? Like I said, I am not certain this is the cause of recent spikes, but it could account for some of the stats.

[Luvs21putt]

You also have to factor in the delay in getting test results and then reporting

[rmd2]

[QUOTE=GoodLife;1785011]Lots of protests in Lake County, here's one in Clermont

Clermont was one that was the biggest spike in cases in the area. I didn't know there was a protest there but that could be the cause for the spike in Clermont.

[icedice]

You can test everyone in TV and the next day someone can go to Orlando ,catch the virus and infect many on return. .The onl y way to stop it is with a vaccine or never leave your house

[daca55]

I don’t think the spikes are due to the protests. I have been keeping track of the numbers since the middle of May and they have been going up daily. With the protests and with more things opening the number of daily cases has nearly doubled. Let’s face it the virus is still with us and to go back our old normal life won’t happen until we have a vaccine. Norge mean time wash your hands and wear a mask.

[Pamelah]

There has been a great deal more testing so of course the numbers will soar. Equally important or more so is the number of hospitalizations yet that’s often not reported.

[JulieER]

Not really amazing. The media covers current events on a larger scale.

[GoodLife]

I don’t think the spikes are due to the protests. I have been keeping track of the numbers since the middle of May and they have been going up daily. With the protests and with more things opening the number of daily cases has nearly doubled. Let’s face it the virus is still with us and to go back our old normal life won’t happen until we have a vaccine. Norge mean time wash your hands and wear a mask.

Maybe you need to keep better track of the numbers. New cases were falling thru most of May, a few upticks in June followed by a large spike June 12 thru 15.

Florida Coronavirus Cases Per Day (https://ycharts.com/indicators/florida_coronavirus_cases_per_day)

[bmit16]

Incubation period is UP TO 14 days. The George Floyd protests didn't occur "up to 14 days" ago. Also, those counties have had the most cases from the beginning, this is just more of the same.

In addition, it was around the same period of time (up to 14 days ago) that the Governor relaxed restrictions on staying home.

I'm sure the protests contributed to the added cases. But there would've been a new wave of cases, ESPECIALLY in the above-mentioned counties, even if there were no protests.



14 days is the max incubation time. George Floyd died on May 25th Memorial day. The protest started the next night May 26th. The op said the spikes started occuring around June 12th That is 18 days after the protest. The protest got more intense in the days following his death and are still going. I would say it is reasonable to assume the protest are playing a much bigger part than people want to admit.

[wiltma]

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf
Florida is hiding much of its numbers so probably x10

[Byte1]

Interesting. Someone produces facts and a theory that is supported by the facts and deniers it can't be so. I have also been watching the numbers for Sumter Co. and noticed that they had leveled off for a couple of weeks. The point being made was that areas with demonstrations had a spike in infected numbers. Whether or not you wish to see the correlation is a matter of your personal choice. Personally, I think the demonstrations are stupid and dangerous. The gov. is being overly lenient on these folks, no doubt due to it being an election year. Yes, my opinion.

[GoodLife]

Interesting. Someone produces facts and a theory that is supported by the facts and deniers it can't be so. I have also been watching the numbers for Sumter Co. and noticed that they had leveled off for a couple of weeks. The point being made was that areas with demonstrations had a spike in infected numbers. Whether or not you wish to see the correlation is a matter of your personal choice. Personally, I think the demonstrations are stupid and dangerous. The gov. is being overly lenient on these folks, no doubt due to it being an election year. Yes, my opinion.

Some would rather blame the spike in cases on reopening. The fact that they can say protests of millions chanting and screaming while shoulder to shoulder is just fine while fans at golf tournaments or church services in a parking lot are dangerous is pretty comical.

[Rich42]

Apparently OB Baby doesn't understand what "up to" means!

[kdholliday1004]

Once you have been tested you will not be recommending regular testing. Will go down was one of the worst 10 seconds of my life. Very uncomfortable. I will not do it again.

[ldivens]

The Governor needs to shut it down. I am writing him today and encourage all responsible citizens to do the same

[psoccermom]

Jerry Deming, mayor of Orlando, said that contact tracing showed their spike was coming from bars and night clubs.

[Eg_cruz]

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf
I looked back at Memorial day weekend. Where those countries don’t practice social distancing. The beaches were packed which in turn the restaurant and stores were. People had big parties at their homes with no regards to safety.

[aldeana]

The CVS website advertises that they offer "no cost" testing. Don't know if a doc's referral is needed. Check it out if you feel a need for testing.

[GoodLife]

Jerry Deming, mayor of Orlando, said that contact tracing showed their spike was coming from bars and night clubs.

A few dozen out of the several hundred COVID 19 cases from the past week point directly back to bars and nightclubs

Bar Owner: Social Distancing in a Bar a Recipe for Disaster (https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/coronavirus/2020/06/16/orlando-bar-owner-on-coronavirus-spikes)

[Dave Laluk]

The current spike now is most likely from Memorial day weekend. Numbers in the coming next 2 weeks are most likely from the protests and more things opening up.

I would agree that the spike we're seeing now is from Memorial Day Weekend AND the start of the re-opening. It takes about a week for exposed people to get symptoms. Another few days before they go to get tested. Another week to get results. Another week for the state to actually report them. So approximately 3 total weeks from exposure to seeing the published data. We may just be seeing the beginning.

[Indydealmaker]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.
Testing is very available in the villages I just got tested at CVS1 day notice took 10 minutes tops negative results in to the half days. There are lots of places.

[jacksonbrown]

Forget your political proclivities and see Dr. Siegel's explanation in the left-hand (videos) column here (https://www.foxnews.com/)

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Yes once again blame the family, I’m sure there more interested in sellers by house then saving lives, you want to get tested go ahead I have because of a possible exposure it turned out to be nothing

[kendi]

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf

Saw this from Mike Pence posted yesterday: "As the White House Coronavirus Task Force told America’s Governors today, despite hyperventilating by some in the media, only 11 counties out of over 3,100 are seeing a true acceleration in new Coronavirus cases & less than 2% of counties show any significant increase in cases." Wonder if the task force is including the seven you mention as part of the 11. Also wonder how much of the spike can be attributed to more testing. Not asking, just wondering. Usually I'd look into it, but not gonna waste time on it anymore. Time to move on.

[allsport]

Actually those counties went to the beaches on memorial day and that is the spike you are seeing. The outdoor protests are about 3 or 4 weeks away. It takes time to get the virus and then spread it and then more time, about 7 days, before you get sick enough to get admitted and then you have contaminated more and spread it farther. It is Memorial Day that you see.

[graciegirl]

Actually those counties went to the beaches on memorial day and that is the spike you are seeing. The outdoor protests are about 3 or 4 weeks away. It takes time to get the virus and then spread it and then more time, about 7 days, before you get sick enough to get admitted and then you have contaminated more and spread it farther. It is Memorial Day that you see.

From incubation to death takes about eight days. Two of my friends in Ohio just did it. Little family birthday party. No one in a million years thought both grandparents would pass. 80 and 81.

[GoodLife]

Actually those counties went to the beaches on memorial day and that is the spike you are seeing. The outdoor protests are about 3 or 4 weeks away. It takes time to get the virus and then spread it and then more time, about 7 days, before you get sick enough to get admitted and then you have contaminated more and spread it farther. It is Memorial Day that you see.

It doesn't take time to get the virus, you breath in a cloud of virus and you've got it unless you are immune in some way. Symptoms start on average 5-6 days later. People can start spreading virus 2 days before symptoms start. Most people get tested as soon as they get symptoms. I did not look at hospitalizations in OP, just new positive test results. Memorial Day may be part of this, but if that's true then it makes sense that protests are also part of this.

[kathy1516]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.
You don’t even need a doctors approval to get tested! Call Quest and get an appointment. Or you can have your doctor give you an order so insurance will cover. This is being done at CVS also. The tests are out there. Go get one if you’re worried.

[Byte1]

Jerry Deming, mayor of Orlando, said that contact tracing showed their spike was coming from bars and night clubs.

Ha! Proves the theory that STDs come from places of inebriation. :MOJE_whot:

[JoMar]

Some would rather blame the spike in cases on reopening. The fact that they can say protests of millions chanting and screaming while shoulder to shoulder is just fine while fans at golf tournaments or church services in a parking lot are dangerous is pretty comical.

The difference is they can't control the protests of milllions chanting and screaming while shoulder to shoulder without doing something wrong and appear on every news media across the country. Not having fans at private events can be controlled and when covered it's seen as a positive and prudent move by the owners and organizers. Same with churches although some are now optionally inside with spacing. Apples and oranges but I guess lumping everything together makes it easier huh? Our facts and perspective is only learded through hindsight with this sucker....everything looking forward is mostly speculation. The only thing we do know is that the only cure today is our immunce system and I'm not so sure I want mine to be the only line of defense.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

I don’t think the spikes are due to the protests. I have been keeping track of the numbers since the middle of May and they have been going up daily. With the protests and with more things opening the number of daily cases has nearly doubled. Let’s face it the virus is still with us and to go back our old normal life won’t happen until we have a vaccine. Norge mean time wash your hands and wear a mask.

Not according to the FL Department of Health. Percent positive went steadily down the first week of June, and then went up again.
Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)

[LiverpoolWalrus]

There has been a great deal more testing so of course the numbers will soar. Equally important or more so is the number of hospitalizations yet that’s often not reported.

True, change in hospitalization and death rates are the best metric. Next best is percent positive and that is published daily here in the following link. Percent positive was going down, then went up again. Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)

[LiverpoolWalrus]

14 days is the max incubation time. George Floyd died on May 25th Memorial day. The protest started the next night May 26th. The op said the spikes started occuring around June 12th That is 18 days after the protest. The protest got more intense in the days following his death and are still going. I would say it is reasonable to assume the protest are playing a much bigger part than people want to admit.

The spikes in percent positive started occurring, at least in Florida, on June 6.
Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)

[GoodLife]

I would agree that the spike we're seeing now is from Memorial Day Weekend AND the start of the re-opening. It takes about a week for exposed people to get symptoms. Another few days before they go to get tested. Another week to get results. Another week for the state to actually report them. So approximately 3 total weeks from exposure to seeing the published data. We may just be seeing the beginning.

Where is this info coming from? Unless they live in a cave, people know the symptoms and get tested as soon as possible. Back in April it might have taken a week to get test results, now it takes one day in most urban locations. They have new mobile labs that give results in 45 minutes. The state doesn't take a week to post results, they put them up as soon as they get them.

[GoodLife]

The difference is they can't control the protests of milllions chanting and screaming while shoulder to shoulder without doing something wrong and appear on every news media across the country. Not having fans at private events can be controlled and when covered it's seen as a positive and prudent move by the owners and organizers. Same with churches although some are now optionally inside with spacing. Apples and oranges but I guess lumping everything together makes it easier huh? Our facts and perspective is only learded through hindsight with this sucker....everything looking forward is mostly speculation. The only thing we do know is that the only cure today is our immunce system and I'm not so sure I want mine to be the only line of defense.

So you're saying that they can't control protests of millions because they would be "doing something wrong" but they can control fans at golf, churches etc because that is seen as "positive and wise"

That sums it up perfectly.

[jimjamuser]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.
Good post. Call for more PPEs and testing by cranking up the Defense Protection Act.

[wayneman]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.
The answer to your question is M O N E Y. Who is going to pay for all the tests. It's the same reason employees of hospitals no longer get tested unless they become symptomatic. Even if they have been directly exposed. No one wants the burden of paying for the test. And more importantly, we need way more antibody tests.

[Alto2548]

Can't have a funeral but by all means a protest is acceptable. Comical.

Not to mention several memorials and a funeral

[Alto2548]

The Governor needs to shut it down. I am writing him today and encourage all responsible citizens to do the same

That's just crazy talk. The shut down's sole purpose was to FLATTEN THE CURVE to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. NOT TO ERADICATE THE VIRUS.

Sorry for using all caps, but getting facts thru to all the "Karens" out there is extremely frustrating.

[donassaid]

You are spot on.

[queasy27]

Even if tests were being done at no charge 12 hours a day at every postal station, I still wouldn't bother unless I had symptoms.

It's a constant game of whack-a-mole. Guidelines for restarting TV and film productions call for performers/actors to be tested a minimum of three times a week and other office/BTS staff once a week.

[ALadysMom]

Incubation period is UP TO 14 days. The George Floyd protests didn't occur "up to 14 days" ago. Also, those counties have had the most cases from the beginning, this is just more of the same.

In addition, it was around the same period of time (up to 14 days ago) that the Governor relaxed restrictions on staying home.

I'm sure the protests contributed to the added cases. But there would've been a new wave of cases, ESPECIALLY in the above-mentioned counties, even if there were no protests.

...And the protests were an “essential activity!” Right?

[nututv]

...And the protests were an “essential activity!” Right?
You would be a racist if you thought otherwise. lol

[ALadysMom]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

Let me think for a minute...

So each time I test negative I will have suffered an unnecessary injury to the same mucous membranes deep within my nasal cavity which defend against viral invasions for absolutely no reason and I will have gained the knowledge that at that one moment in time I was A-ok but I will have also wasted about half of a day of my life getting each test.

But if I happen to test positive, I win the Grand Prize of being ordered into a 14-day home isolation while I feel fine but also gain some really nosey Government Contact Tracer Bloodhounds (who were probably unemployed waiters previously) to gather & record all of my private & sensitive personal information so they will contact each of my friends, loved ones, fellow shoppers, and dance partners (JK LOL). My private contact records will become indelible, permanent CyberSpace government records. They may not even bother to distinguish between those I may have incidentally crossed paths with from those I had more intentionally encountered—from when until when? And I’m sure my private contact records will forever receive Top Secret security status with NO UNMASKING, right? ;)
And being positive but asymptomatic, I would have not incurred the invasion of my nasal cavity nor the invasion of my privacy if only I spent my lovely day in paradise on happier pursuits.

Of course, if I am positive and symptomatic I get the invasions plus I will be sent home to suffer in isolation unless and until I get sick enough to require help.

But if I get sick, stay home and don’t get tested unless and until I require hospitalization then I will have no choice but to suffer the full impact of the burdens.

Sounds like a whole lot of fun.

How many times do you think I will want to repeat this? And how many kooky paranoid folks will want to repeatedly join me?

It’s no wonder there aren’t hoards of people who are lining up for repeat testing, right? What’s the sage saying? Fool me once...

(BTW I sadly suspect that Saturday Night Live may be missing a wealth of material here! We can either laugh or we can cry.)

PENN, there hasn’t been more testing in TV because there wasn’t a lot of interest (see above ^) and there hasn’t been a lot of need.

[shut the front door]

I am not certain, but three relatives of mine recently tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19. They were never tested for the virus. They all had mild symptoms and have since recovered. They all received calls from the health department and are now part of the COVID-19 statistics. How many others are in the same situation but no longer contagious? Like I said, I am not certain this is the cause of recent spikes, but it could account for some of the stats.

I have the antibodies and cannot spread the disease. Yet I still get yelled at in public and on this message board for not wearing a mask. All the message board self appointed doctors told me that my doctors are wrong. Not sure what medical school they went to, but they should probably inform the poor victims who are receiving my antibodies. They should also get in touch with the doctors who are giving these antibodies!

[ALadysMom]

Jerry Deming, mayor of Orlando, said that contact tracing showed their spike was coming from bars and night clubs.

And he based that on what? Oh, because bars & nightclubs are where locals go not where the tourists go. His slant is toward the one who spends more $

[ALadysMom]

I have the antibodies and cannot spread the disease. Yet I still get yelled at in public and on this message board for not wearing a mask. All the message board self appointed doctors told me that my doctors are wrong. Not sure what medical school they went to, but they should probably inform the poor victims who are receiving my antibodies. They should also get in touch with the doctors who are giving these antibodies!

Thank you for donating your immunity to help others.

A 20ish yo said she yelled back in retaliation at a busy-body senior while shopping without a mask (* = omitted Expletives) “I don’t have to wear a * mask because my * age group is not the one causing * problems. We * young people need to get out and work to pay for your * Medicare & Social Security. We already gave up weeks of our lives to keep you safe. You * old folks should stay at * home.” The senior retreated in silence.Yikes. Although it’s not fully accurate, I understand the frustration, don’t you? People should be very careful so their nose doesn’t get bit off if they stick it where it doesn’t belong.

[ALadysMom]

Can't have a funeral but by all means a protest is acceptable. Comical.

A big ol’ Texas funeral is great as long as it attracts the well-heeled.

[ALadysMom]

Florida is hiding much of its numbers so probably x10

Unlike some other states like NY, NJ, IL who count fingers & toes as individuals.

[shut the front door]

Thank you for donating your immunity to help others.

A 20ish yo said she yelled back in retaliation at a busy-body senior while shopping without a mask (* = omitted Expletives) “I don’t have to wear a * mask because my * age group is not the one causing * problems. We * young people need to get out and work to pay for your * Medicare & Social Security. We already gave up weeks of our lives to keep you safe. You * old folks should stay at * home.” The senior retreated in silence.Yikes. Although it’s not fully accurate, I understand the frustration, don’t you? People should be very careful so their nose doesn’t get bit off if they stick it where it doesn’t belong.

People minding their own business will never happen in TV. Just reading this message board or spending a day listening to the calls to community watch will make you shudder. There are literally tens of thousands of Gladys Kravitz here and they will never mind their own business. I just look at them and laugh.

[jimjamuser]

People minding their own business will never happen in TV. Just reading this message board or spending a day listening to the calls to community watch will make you shudder. There are literally tens of thousands of Gladys Kravitz here and they will never mind their own business. I just look at them and laugh.
Who is Gladys Kravitz? And who is John Galt?

[jimjamuser]

The answer to your question is M O N E Y. Who is going to pay for all the tests. It's the same reason employees of hospitals no longer get tested unless they become symptomatic. Even if they have been directly exposed. No one wants the burden of paying for the test. And more importantly, we need way more antibody tests.
Look at S. Korea or Germany for your answer. They tested quickly and their DPA was put into place to produce all the needed medical equipment. The US fiddled while CV burned. The result they quickly got back their economy and people went to work. We the US of A now leads the world in all the Bad CV stats. We have 15 to 29% unemployment(depending if you count people not trying). And out GNP is toast. Bottom line----better to spend money on tests early. You could say "the early bird avoids the CV".

[jimjamuser]

You would be a racist if you thought otherwise. lol
Who is John Galt?

[jimjamuser]

Let me think for a minute...

So each time I test negative I will have suffered an unnecessary injury to the same mucous membranes deep within my nasal cavity which defend against viral invasions for absolutely no reason and I will have gained the knowledge that at that one moment in time I was A-ok but I will have also wasted about half of a day of my life getting each test.

But if I happen to test positive, I win the Grand Prize of being ordered into a 14-day home isolation while I feel fine but also gain some really nosey Government Contact Tracer Bloodhounds (who were probably unemployed waiters previously) to gather & record all of my private & sensitive personal information so they will contact each of my friends, loved ones, fellow shoppers, and dance partners (JK LOL). My private contact records will become indelible, permanent CyberSpace government records. They may not even bother to distinguish between those I may have incidentally crossed paths with from those I had more intentionally encountered—from when until when? And I’m sure my private contact records will forever receive Top Secret security status with NO UNMASKING, right? ;)
And being positive but asymptomatic, I would have not incurred the invasion of my nasal cavity nor the invasion of my privacy if only I spent my lovely day in paradise on happier pursuits.

Of course, if I am positive and symptomatic I get the invasions plus I will be sent home to suffer in isolation unless and until I get sick enough to require help.

But if I get sick, stay home and don’t get tested unless and until I require hospitalization then I will have no choice but to suffer the full impact of the burdens.

Sounds like a whole lot of fun.

How many times do you think I will want to repeat this? And how many kooky paranoid folks will want to repeatedly join me?

It’s no wonder there aren’t hoards of people who are lining up for repeat testing, right? What’s the sage saying? Fool me once...

(BTW I sadly suspect that Saturday Night Live may be missing a wealth of material here! We can either laugh or we can cry.)

PENN, there hasn’t been more testing in TV because there wasn’t a lot of interest (see above ^) and there hasn’t been a lot of need.
That's a lot of "ifs and buts". By the way, who is John Galt?

[jimjamuser]

I have the antibodies and cannot spread the disease. Yet I still get yelled at in public and on this message board for not wearing a mask. All the message board self appointed doctors told me that my doctors are wrong. Not sure what medical school they went to, but they should probably inform the poor victims who are receiving my antibodies. They should also get in touch with the doctors who are giving these antibodies!
A gray area. Recent studies suggest that even people with antibodies MAY? give off SOME? CV to others. And the CV MAY? have mutated in Beijing?

[sloanst]

The protesters, rioters and looters where numerous, uncontrollable and have little respect for the law. Golfers simply don't fall into that category.

[Villagerjjm]

This has been going on for more than 2 months. Most people in TV are 65 plus and if they get so much as the sniffles, they are going to get tested. If there was a large scale infection of Villagers we would know about it by now.

That's great!! Tell me exactly... where are those tests available?

[TomPerrett]

The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

[NoMoSno]

That's great!! Tell me exactly... where are those tests available?
Quest, CVS, call your doctor.

[nututv]

Who is John Galt?

I'll bet Google knows. lol
Who is John Galt - Google Search (https://www.google.com/search?q=Who+is+John+Galt&rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS595US595&oq=Who+is+John+Galt&aqs=chrome..69i57.1424j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

[nututv]

A gray area. Recent studies suggest that even people with antibodies MAY? give off SOME? CV to others. And the CV MAY? have mutated in Beijing?
That's a lot of "MAY's and one some". By the way, who is John Galt?

[Topspinmo]

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf

Traveler's most likely? don't worry they will be switching back to virus. what they do.

[Topspinmo]

The Governor needs to shut it down. I am writing him today and encourage all responsible citizens to do the same

Dream on, there will be no second shut down of the country. pockets maybe. people HAVE to get back to work.

[Topspinmo]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

you can get tested about anywhere, But wait for it----------------------------------------------------------------------------you may have to paid for it! So, testing not problem unless you expect freebee, then you will have to travel.

[GoodLife]

The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

Please cite the scientific paper that shows time between exposure to symptoms is 12 to 14 days. I guess that's why the CDC and everybody else have people quarantine for 14 days right? So there's still a chance they can still spread the disease? LOL

Might want to notify John Hopkins about this, since their study and many others confirmed the following.

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days. Overall, fewer than 2.5 percent of infected people started showing symptoms within 2.2 days, and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds | Hub (https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/09/coronavirus-incubation-period/)

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Please cite the scientific paper that shows time between exposure to symptoms is 12 to 14 days.

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days...and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.[/url]

I admire your perseverance on this timeline thing. OK, we accept the average and median are 5.5 and 5.1 days respectively. But as you know, by definition, there are going to be x number of days that fall outside that average and median. Your own post cites up to 12 days (rounded). Given that the esteemed JH cites up to 12 days, I'll go with that.

A median of 5.1 days means there are as many days less than 5 as there are days more than 5. The fewest number of days for symptoms to occur is 2 according to what I've read, so adding 3 to 5.1 gives you 8.1 days. For fans of medians, I'd say a good estimate of onset of symptoms would be 2 to 8 days.

[GoodLife]

I admire your perseverance on this timeline thing. OK, we accept the average and median are 5.5 and 5.1 days respectively. But as you know, by definition, there are going to be x number of days that fall outside that average and median. Your own post cites up to 12 days (rounded). Given that the esteemed JH cites up to 12 days, I'll go with that.

A median of 5.1 days means there are as many days less than 5 as there are days more than 5. The fewest number of days for symptoms to occur is 2 according to what I've read, so adding 3 to 5.1 gives you 8.1 days. For fans of medians, I'd say a good estimate of onset of symptoms would be 2 to 8 days.

Yes, 2-8 days is a good estimate, but the highest number of symptomatic cases will be found from 5-6 days from exposure because that's where the median and average are located.

[Altavia]

Since the majority of new cases are younger people, I'm afraid the risk of exposure to non-symptomatic individuals has increased significantly.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

3
4
4
5
6
5
6
4
5
7
10

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases. A bit troubling, but not unexpected.

[GoodLife]

Since the majority of new cases are younger people, I'm afraid the risk of exposure to non-symptomatic individuals has increased significantly.

Yes, and the average age of protesters is mid 20s. A higher percentage of young covid positives are also asymptomatic.

The protests started in Minneapolis on May 26, rest of cities followed suit starting May 27, so those saying it takes more days to show symptoms, get tested, get results are not disproving that protests are the source for the spikes starting June 12.

[thevillages2013]

They are having sex with strangers again and then like a pregnancy test they are getting a COVID test

[tvbound]

It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

[ColdNoMore]

It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

If enough people will follow the guidelines...we should be OK. :shrug:

[LiverpoolWalrus]

It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

For Sumter county, where most Villagers reside, here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)

0
0
1
3
0
0
1
0
0
1
1

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases. Seems pretty stable - not a bad reading for the Villages.

And as Goodlife would say, it's because there were no protests in the Villages. In any case, it doesn't appear the reopening is having an adverse effect on the Villages, based on these data.

[davem4616]

from what I've been reading it seems like the huge numbers are coming from Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties

we all know what we need to do to stay safe

we all have free will...hopefully we also have good judgment

this is not over

[GoodLife]

New study on Italy shows 70% of covid 19 positives under age 60 are asymptomatic.

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2006/2006.08471.pdf

Median age of Florida positives is dropping a lot

84672

Percent of deaths per case is also dropping (blue line)

84673

So the spike we are seeing is mostly younger people. They think they are invulnerable, don't wear masks a lot, and also like to participate in protests, go to bars etc. Average age of protesters is mid 20s.

Death count lags positive tests by 3-4 weeks, I don't expect a lot of deaths from these spikes as it is mostly younger people, but they can spread it to us and are often asymptomatic. Beware the MIllennials :icon_wink:

[sallybowron]

How would we know?

[Aloha1]

How would we know?

How would you know what?

[Bay Kid]

The media, traveling and protest?

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

14 days is the max incubation time. George Floyd died on May 25th Memorial day. The protest started the next night May 26th. The op said the spikes started occuring around June 12th That is 18 days after the protest. The protest got more intense in the days following his death and are still going. I would say it is reasonable to assume the protest are playing a much bigger part than people want to admit.

Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

[graciegirl]

Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

And no matter what......we will all think the spike in cases of Covid-19 in Florida, is caused by a lot of unnecessary "fannin' around" with people who are standing way too close to you. If you think marching is a good thing, it isn't likely you are going to blame marching. If you think going to church is a good thing, you aren't going to blame going to church. Ditto the drinking with friends at a local bar and gathering for a meal inside anywhere. If you think the virus is a hoax and a conspiracy, you will not get sick no matter what you do, and what I choose to wear to your funeral is not going to matter to you, or the fact that I am not even thinking to go to your funeral since you are acting so damn stupid..and I couldn't go anyway because of social distancing which may not stop the mess but it won't hurt.

I don't mean YOU Orange Blossom Baby...I mean you as in people in general.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Did anyone see the beaches on Memorial Day , how about Texas where they barely closed down all has anyone looked at the map why are there not spikes in Nee York City , Boston’s there will be cases from marches, but there will b from many other irresponsible behavior . It’s scary to think that you can show what a good American you are by not wearing a mask

[billethkid]

Did anyone see the beaches on Memorial Day , how about Texas where they barely closed down all has anyone looked at the map why are there not spikes in Nee York City , Boston’s there will be cases from marches, but there will b from many other irresponsible behavior . It’s scary to think that you can show what a good American you are by not wearing a mask

I put that in the same category as people who choose to call those of us who subscribe to the CDC guidelines or staying home as "scared"....

that being self indulgent BS!

[GoodLife]

Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

I think you need to look at actual data on when the large spikes happened. In most counties it started on June 12, look it up on Florida dashboard. Floyd died on May 25. Protests followed that date with some of the largest in Florida on June 6 and 7

Spike dates

Orange and Hillsborough June 10
Dade and Palm Beach June 12
Broward June 15

Might want to look things up before leaping.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

3
4
4
5
6
5
6
4
5
7
10
9
10

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases.

Goodlife, I'm not convinced it's possible to identify one cause over another. If the upsurge is from the protests, it's going to have the same effect as if it came from relaxing restrictions. Exponential spread starting with the protests is going to continue to work its way through the population just the same as if it started with bars and restaurants, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

Only if the "protest effect" petered out over time, with a corresponding drop in the numbers would we be able to attribute the current spike to the protests. But I don't see that happening given the exponential nature of how the virus is spread.

[ColdNoMore]

And no matter what......we will all think the spike in cases of Covid-19 in Florida, is caused by a lot of unnecessary "fannin' around" with people who are standing way too close to you. If you think marching is a good thing, it isn't likely you are going to blame marching. If you think going to church is a good thing, you aren't going to blame going to church. Ditto the drinking with friends at a local bar and gathering for a meal inside anywhere. If you think the virus is a hoax and a conspiracy, you will not get sick no matter what you do, and what I choose to wear to your funeral is not going to matter to you, or the fact that I am not even thinking to go to your funeral since you are acting so damn stupid..and I couldn't go anyway because of social distancing which may not stop the mess but it won't hurt.

I don't mean YOU Orange Blossom Baby...I mean you as in people in general.

That's actually...a good post. :thumbup:


.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Protest outside with mask bad for out health , I’m sure there some truth to that , but most here don’t have a problem with a massive indoor rally with no masks required in a city with a big spike in cases . Hmmmm makes you wonder

[PugMom]

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

excellent post, but idk if Fl can actually perform a lot of these tests. it would take a significant effort to acquire that many kits & can you imagine how long those lines would be? lol. it would start a brand new thread :duck:

[Northwoods]

The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

Here is a quote from Harvard Health. Just dealing with the FACTS...

"How long is it between when a person is exposed to the virus and when they start showing symptoms?

Recently published research found that on average, the time from exposure to symptom onset (known as the incubation period) is about five to six days. However, studies have shown that symptoms could appear as soon as three days after exposure to as long as 13 days later. These findings continue to support the CDC recommendation of self-quarantine and monitoring of symptoms for 14 days post exposure."