There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’

[GoodLife]

As these graphs from Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics show, there is no second wave of coronavirus happening. There have been some spikes in a few places, but overall the trends look very good. 70% of the spike in Florida is located in 6-7 counties. These graphs show national data. The only one going up is testing.

Upper left graph = rolling average of new case
Upper right graph = rolling average of tests
Lower left graph = rolling average positive test rate
Lower right graph = rolling average of deaths

84662

[GoodLife]

An inexpensive and widely available steroid is an effective treatment for COVID-19 patients, researchers have found. Dexamethasone, a low-dose steroid treatment, reduces the risk of death by one-third for COVID-19 patients on ventilators. For patients on oxygen, the risk of death is reduced by one-fifth. "This is the only drug so far that has been shown to reduce mortality — and it reduces it significantly. It's a major breakthrough," said Peter Horby, chief investigator at Oxford University.

Finally something that works on the most severe cases.

[Stu from NYC]

That is great news.

Hopefully getting closer and closer to resuming life as we would like it.

[zonerboy]

Perhaps the effectiveness of dexamethasone gives some indication that part of the damage done in severe cases of Covid-19 is due to immune system overreaction.

[gadaboutgal]

I don't think I'll start jumping for joy just yet--it may turn out to be another Hydroxychloroquine break-through.
I'll just wait and see what the news is next month.

[DonH57]

So with all this talk of spikes of new cases in Florida lately how many resulted in treatment and or hospitalization?

[JoMar]

Second wave is due in the fall and will come at the same time the flu starts and at the end of hurricane season :)

[ALadysMom]

For any who don’t already know, the statistics to watch are not the ones that are usually reported.

I am disappointed that the media has not been taken to school on this.

The infection RATE (percentage) of new positive-tested cases and the number of new hospitalizations are strong indicators of current local infectious activity.

Those stats show the case pipeline so we can decide what level of concern is appropriate to best protect our own health.

Too often the statistics that are quoted are the NUMBER of positive test results and the number of deaths. Those are often alarming statistics but they are not very useful if you need to know when YOUR risk is increasing or decreasing.

[blueash]

As these graphs from Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics show, there is no second wave of coronavirus happening. There have been some spikes in a few places, but overall the trends look very good. 70% of the spike in Florida is located in 6-7 counties. These graphs show national data. The only one going up is testing.

Upper left graph = rolling average of new case
Upper right graph = rolling average of tests
Lower left graph = rolling average positive test rate
Lower right graph = rolling average of deaths

84662

Call me dense, but I don't understand the point you are making. You talk about the data from Florida where 70% of the cases are from fewer than 10 counties, but then don't tell us that 70% of the population is in those counties so the data is exactly what should be expected in an uptick. Disease numbers are the highest where people live, duh.

And then you show graphs from national data whereas our experience with the first spike was that Covid hit population centers harder than rural areas. Florida data is available and it shows that in the last week the number of tests is NOT going up but the number of positive tests is, as well as a reported increase in hospital and ICU bed occupancy.

Here are the graphs for Florida. One shows the number of positive antigen [swab] tests for each day for the last 30 days. There is a very dramatic increase in the number of positive tests over the last 2 weeks. The other graph shows the number of tests done. You can see that more tests were done in the week labelled beginning May 1st than in any recent week. More tests is NOT the explanation for more positive results. There is of course a flaw in the charts on the website. If you go to the Dashboard and hover over the line labeled 5/1 it tells you that the line represents the tests done in the week ending May 17th, not May 1st. So the last bar on the chart is not the fourth week of May rather it is week of June 7th.

[ALadysMom]

An inexpensive and widely available steroid is an effective treatment for COVID-19 patients, researchers have found. Dexamethasone, a low-dose steroid treatment, reduces the risk of death by one-third for COVID-19 patients on ventilators. For patients on oxygen, the risk of death is reduced by one-fifth. "This is the only drug so far that has been shown to reduce mortality — and it reduces it significantly. It's a major breakthrough," said Peter Horby, chief investigator at Oxford University.

Finally something that works on the most severe cases.

That’s great news! Every chip we take out of that big COVID iceberg (so to speak) means we are closer to safely living freely again. Thanks for posting it.

I’ve taken Dexamethasone a few times. It was very effective, quick acting, easily-tolerated & inexpensive. The only little side-effects were: I did get a little shaky/nervous, I had trouble sleeping, and it did give me a little “roid rage” irritability, but none of it was a really big deal. It was so effective I would take it again if I needed it without any hesitation, so thanks!

[blueash]

It is better seen on this detail from the daily report which shows the number of people tested each day in the last 14 dyas and the number of people who were positive. Note that on the first day shown at the far left just over 32,000 tests were done with 1000 positive, rounding number. However on the most recent day a 32,000 tests were done and 2700 were positive.

Anyone who is telling you that more positive tests are because of more tests being done is lying about the data. The second LOWEST number of tests were done yesterday and resulted in the third highest number of cases.

[ColdNoMore]

It is better seen on this detail from the daily report which shows the number of people tested each day in the last 14 dyas and the number of people who were positive. Note that on the first day shown at the far left just over 32,000 tests were done with 1000 positive, rounding number. However on the most recent day a 32,000 tests were done and 2700 were positive.

Anyone who is telling you that more positive tests are because of more tests being done is lying about the data.


The second LOWEST number of tests were done yesterday and resulted in the third highest number of cases.

But, but, but, that just can't be correct, as they are saying...

[GoodLife]

Originally posted by Blueash

Call me dense, but I don't understand the point you are making. You talk about the data from Florida where 70% of the cases are from fewer than 10 counties, but then don't tell us that 70% of the population is in those counties so the data is exactly what should be expected in an uptick. Disease numbers are the highest where people live, duh

I assume everyone here knows which counties have the largest populations. For a more detailed look at Florida's spike in cases see my other thread here:

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-non-villages-discussion-93/where-floridas-spike-coming-307780/

The Florida spike in 7 counties can't be attributed to just the fact that they have the highest populations. Counties like Dade were going along with 200-300 cases per day until June 12 when they shot up to 570. Same big spike in the other 6 counties. Something caused that spike. As you see in the other thread I think its the protests. Big protests = big spikes Small protests = small spikes No protests = zero spikes. Take a look at the county by county reports and perhaps you will see what I see. Some people think the spikes are caused by reopening, but the dates don't work so good for that. Florida reopened May 4, protests began May 27. Spikes start June 12.

More tests is NOT the explanation for more positive results.

I never said they did. My comment in the OP about the only thing going up Nationally was number of tests on a National level. NOT FLORIDA Nationally, new cases are going down, deaths are going down, percentage of postives/tests is going down. The only thing going up is tests on a National scale and the charts I displayed are National data. Get it? Here's what I said in OP

These graphs show national data. The only one going up is testing. So yeah DUH


If you want to discuss Florida spikes specifically, it would be better to do so in the other thread which is exactly about that. I do not think the spikes in Florida are because of more testing as it's obvious that hasn't gone up here.

[ALadysMom]

this was also in news released today about most effective treatments:
“ The only other drug to show benefit in a robust trial is Gilead Sciences Inc.’s remdesivir, an antiviral.”

Source: Bloomberg News

I try to stay somewhat current about treatments because based on experience I may urgently need to know. That’s what happened with my son’s H1N1. It’s important to be your own healthcare advocate so you can ask informed pertinent questions on the spot. The infectious disease dr was with us for an unscheduled 10-15 minute consultation. Glad I knew what to ask beforehand.

[ALadysMom]

UPDATE: Track Florida’s rate of positive COVID-19 tests (https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/06/18/update-track-floridas-rate-of-positive-covid-19-tests/%3foutputType=amp)

That’s a link to a website tracking PERCENTAGE of positive cases in Central Florida. There may be one for local counties somewhere too.

There is an uptick. Definitely not high enough to push the panic button yet.