Florida's spike may not be due solely to the protests

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health. Data are from June 7 to June 20 from a sample of Florida counties where no protests were held.

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases.

Highlands: 4, 0, 6, 4, 6, 10, 1, 2, 10, 8, 2, 4, 11, 10
Flagler: 0, 0, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 0, 3, 5, 3, 6
Wakulla: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0, 3, 5, 1, 0
Hamilton: 0, 5, 18, 9, 15, 29, 0, 17, 6, 17, 17, 29, 19, 20

Even right here in the Villages in protest-free Sumter County it looks like something might be happening, but it's too soon to say:
0, 1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 10, 2

Source: Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)

[GoodLife]

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health. Data are from June 7 to June 20 from a sample of Florida counties where no protests were held.

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases.

Highlands: 4, 0, 6, 4, 6, 10, 1, 2, 10, 8, 2, 4, 11, 10
Flagler: 0, 0, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 0, 3, 5, 3, 6
Wakulla: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0, 3, 5, 1, 0
Hamilton: 0, 5, 18, 9, 15, 29, 0, 17, 6, 17, 17, 29, 19, 20

Even right here in the Villages in protest-free Sumter County it looks like something might be happening, but it's too soon to say:
0, 1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 10, 2

Source: Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)

I've never said that protests are the source for 100% of the surge. I did find reports and photos of smaller protests in Highlands and Flagler counties. What we know for sure is that the median age for new cases in Florida has dropped from 55 to 35 recently, so the demographic for the surges is younger people. They feel pretty invulnerable to this disease because they are, several studies have shown that 60-70% of cases under age 60 are asymptomatic, they don't get sick, don't go to hospitals, and they die at a rate less than the common flu.

I also think part of the surge is coming from workplace testing. Average age for people who work is 42, and many businesses are testing their employees as they open up.

84721


Marion County has had a spike in new cases for the last 3 days. Median age of those cases for each day? 24 30 24

[Bay Kid]

It is ok to protest per some of our leaders. The so called deaths will be because good people went outside, went to church, had a bite to eat with a friend. Not 5-10-20,000 destructive protesters with no life. Never their fault.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

I also think part of the surge is coming from workplace testing. Average age for people who work is 42, and many businesses are testing their employees as they open up.

I used percent positive because it's a measure of how prevalent the virus is in a given population. Increasing the number of people tested whether it be from the workplace or anywhere else and seeing a corresponding increase in the number of positives is a completely different metric. That would be a measure of the prevalence of testing whereas the percent positive is a measure of the prevalence of the virus.

It's interesting to see the median age of those testing positive drop so precipitously to a cohort that statistically remains symptom-free. So the data we really need to see is daily rate of hospitalizations and the daily death rate to conclude whether or not we're getting this thing under control.

I'm not able to find hospitalization or death rates over time for Florida - only aggregate figures. Have you been able to find it, Goodlife?

[GoodLife]

I used percent positive because it's a measure of how prevalent the virus is in a given population. Increasing the number of people tested whether it be from the workplace or anywhere else and seeing a corresponding increase in the number of positives is a completely different metric. That would be a measure of the prevalence of testing whereas the percent positive is a measure of the prevalence of the virus.

It's interesting to see the median age of those testing positive drop so precipitously to a cohort that statistically remains symptom-free. So the data we really need to see is daily rate of hospitalizations and the daily death rate to conclude whether or not we're getting this thing under control.

I'm not able to find hospitalization or death rates over time for Florida - only aggregate figures. Have you been able to find it, Goodlife?

USA hospitalized

84725

USA Social interaction (cell phone data) vs hospitalization This shows you reopening isn't causing surge in hospitalization

84726

Florida hospitalized

84727

What you are seeing in the new surge of positives is a surge of asymptomatic young people who weren't getting tested much before. That level of positives may have been there for months but we didn't know because people with no symptoms do not ask to be tested. Now you have a lot of work place testing like this:

Tyson Foods said Thursday it has completed COVID-19 testing at its large Berry Street poultry slaughter and processing facility in Springdale. Of the 1,102 employees tested, 199 were positive, only one of which displayed symptoms.

Tyson said the other 198 positive cases were asymptomatic and would not have identified without the test.

We're not going to see a huge upsurge in hospitalizations or deaths from this surge unless old people lower their guard and start mingling with millennials.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

You're on the ball, GL. What is the source for the Hospitalizations graph?

In the old days, journalists would have analyzed the data and reported on the true story like you're doing. Now all we get from those talking heads is the meaningless "number of cases," over and over again.

[GoodLife]

You're on the ball, GF. What is the source for the Hospitalizations graph?

In the old days, journalists would have analyzed the data and reported on the true story like you're doing. Now all we get from those talking heads is the meaningless "number of cases," over and over again.

I follow various reporters, scientists, stats guys etc on forums and blogs. They use the data from the usual sources and produce lots of illuminating stats and graphs.

Yes, I think I should be getting paid for this! :icon_wink:

The main stream media is just pathetic.

[billethkid]

USA hospitalized

84725

USA Social interaction (cell phone data) vs hospitalization This shows you reopening isn't causing surge in hospitalization

84726

Florida hospitalized

84727

What you are seeing in the new surge of positives is a surge of asymptomatic young people who weren't getting tested much before. That level of positives may have been there for months but we didn't know because people with no symptoms do not ask to be tested. Now you have a lot of work place testing like this:

Tyson Foods said Thursday it has completed COVID-19 testing at its large Berry Street poultry slaughter and processing facility in Springdale. Of the 1,102 employees tested, 199 were positive, only one of which displayed symptoms.

Tyson said the other 198 positive cases were asymptomatic and would not have identified without the test.

We're not going to see a huge upsurge in hospitalizations or deaths from this surge unless old people lower their guard and start mingling with millennials.

Excellent presentation.
Displays the true nature of the pattern(s).