Coronavirus no worse than the 1957 Flu

[GoodLife]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425

[B-flat]

My 2 cents I believe in 1957 people were tougher, there was no instant communications, the media reported news not created hysteria. I also believe people weren’t traveling as much or affluent as they are today. It adds up to a number of factors.

[John41]

China wasn’t a factor either which keeps seeding the US

[Nucky]

///

[graciegirl]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY (https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman)

[tvbound]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425

I've noticed what looks like a lot of homemade graphs and spreadsheets showing up in some member's posts, that anyone could pretty easily do on their own. It would be helpful in determining the veracity of their source, if a link or citation were included with these graphs and spreadsheets. Thank you.

[tvbound]

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY (/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman)

Thank you for the link, it really helps.

[Two Bills]

I was in the UK. military in 1957, and half our battalion went down with the Asian Flu. No one died, but a lot were very ill. I had just a mild dose of it.
Don't think we were any tougher than those of today, but there definitely were not anywhere near as many obese people around which may have kept numbers down.
With no internet, news of the severity of it was not readily available, which led to less rumour and info overload.
We were not that long out of WW2, and the general attitude, was a bit of flu was nothing compared to what many had been through.
We just got on with it.

[GoodLife]

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY (https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman)

As the info I posted shows, the USA only had 172 million people in 1957, so deaths per million is a better way to compare,

[GoodLife]

I've noticed what looks like a lot of homemade graphs and spreadsheets showing up in some member's posts, that anyone could pretty easily do on their own. It would be helpful in determining the veracity of their source, if a link or citation were included with these graphs and spreadsheets. Thank you.

The white info graphic was posted by Balloux. I am pretty sure that the guy who sequenced the coronavirus genome knows how to get accurate numbers.

[Villages Kahuna]

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this.

Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

[GoodLife]

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this. Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

1957 flu was a double peak pandemic that lasted about 8 months

85427

The 57 flu killed a lot more young people than covid, which kills mainly the old

[DeeCee Dubya]

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

[Travelhunter]

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this.

Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

Well said

[David Fletcher]

It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.

[papillon]

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

[Travelhunter]

At the end is an interesting link that provides a detailed comparison between COVID and the Asian flu
A different viewpoint than the author of this thread with rationale

My Reason colleague Brian Doherty cites a brand new study that suggests that early adoption of stringent public health measures, e.g., closing down schools, theaters, churches, and so forth, in response to the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic actually experienced a more robust economic bounce back than cities that reacted more slowly.

In the meantime, assuming that the epidemiological models are even approximately right, the chief reason why the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. may be held down to 1957 pandemic flu levels is because modern public health officials have recommended social distancing measures instead of just letting the current epidemic run its course.
Article below
How Will Coronavirus Pandemic Deaths Compare to the 1957 Flu Pandemic? – Reason.com (https://reason.com/2020/03/31/how-will-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-compare-to-the-1957-flu-pandemic/)

[Topspinmo]

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY (https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman)


Population was lot lower then and China hasn’t taken over the world yet by stealing. Until China get rid of its wet markets and enter’s the 20 century with food handling more virus’s to come. Each time outbreak happens it seems to get more deadly.

[Lindsyburnsy]

Many people who hv had COVID19 but didn’t die, have had a plethora of ongoing lung, heart, memory, kinetic, etc issues after months of recovery from the virus. Personally, I am doing all I can to protect you and myself from getting it. “Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425

[Jacob85]

I can never understand the fascination people have in trying to minimize this virus. You cannot really compare it to any other illness because it is a new virus and we don’t know everything about it. I was alive in 1957 and I think if 145,000 people had died in 4 1/2 months we would have heard something. This virus has cause damage in every organ in some people and unique issues in young children such as inflammation in their bodies. The highly contagious aspect of this virus from people with no symptoms is another unique factor.

[toeser]

As the info I posted shows, the USA only had 172 million people in 1957, so deaths per million is a better way to compare,

Our population has grown 92% since then. Can you imagine how horrible life would be in this country if our population is 633 million in 2083, or 1,216,500,000 in 2146? The world's biggest problem is population growth, not a pandemic. Both the U.S. population and the world's population has continued to grow right through this pandemic.

[banjobob]

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.. I agree this virus is a fear factor gone berserk.

[toeser]

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

Reasonable estimates are that likely 10 times as many people have been infected as the number officially confirmed.

I personally know of two people who have very likely had it, were never hospitalized, and not counted in the totals.

[graciegirl]

. I agree this virus is a fear factor gone berserk.

Oh. I respectfully and intensely disagree with this post.

[BarryD]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425
One big difference - thanks to the foresight of Maurice Hilleman, when the 1957 flu arrived, a vaccine was ready - and even with a vaccine, 60,000 - 100,000 Americans died

[GoodLife]

Please quit with herd immunity BS. Please. 4 million have been identified as positive. Let’s say the number represents 1/2 actually infected. That represents 2% of the population. Herd immunity requires something closer to 50-60% and that assumes antibodies provide long-term immunity which has not been shown. So again, just STOP.

Sorry but no, I won't stop :icon_wink:

It's obvious that many do not read the numerous links I have posted.

To review:

CDC Director recently stated that there are 10 times more asymptomatics than confirmed positives tested. Other scientists think it could be 20 times.

New studies by scientists have discovered that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity to covid 19 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, say scientists (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12146931/uk-may-have-herd-immunity-prevent-second-coronavirus-wave-scientists/)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

Yes antibodies fade with time, but your T and B cells retain memory of the virus and can produce new antibodies if they are needed. T cell memory of Sars 1 tested as effective 17 years after exposure. Antibodies don't need to last forever to stop a pandemic anyway, just a few months will do nicely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months | medRxiv (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20151126v1)

If you don't understand all the science, just look at graphs of deaths or cases in places like Sweden or New York. Only a small percentage of residents in each place tested positive but their graphs for deaths and cases look the same, rising up to a peak and then descending towards zero. Neither place has had a big surge in new cases. Why? It can't be lockdowns and masks because Sweden did neither. The only explanation is that a herd immunity threshold was reached in both places. There are other countries and states where you see the same thing.

85429

Florida has had a big surge in cases because the threshold has not been met here yet. But it looks like the surge in new cases is starting a downward trend, just as I predicted at the beginning of July in another thread. If this downward trend in cases continues then the death totals will start to go down as well in a few weeks.

85430

[GoodLife]

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

This does not take into account the huge number of asymptomatics who had the virus, did not get sick or die.

The official CDC estimate for Infection Fatality Rate is 0.65%

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box)

[graciegirl]

Sorry but no, I won't stop :icon_wink:

It's obvious that many do not read the numerous links I have posted.

To review:

CDC Director recently stated that there are 10 times more asymptomatics than confirmed positives tested. Other scientists think it could be 20 times.

New studies by scientists have discovered that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity to covid 19 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, say scientists (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12146931/uk-may-have-herd-immunity-prevent-second-coronavirus-wave-scientists/)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

Yes antibodies fade with time, but your T and B cells retain memory of the virus and can produce new antibodies if they are needed. T cell memory of Sars 1 tested as effective 17 years after exposure. Antibodies don't need to last forever to stop a pandemic anyway, just a few months will do nicely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months | medRxiv (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20151126v1)

If you don't understand all the science, just look at graphs of deaths or cases in places like Sweden or New York. Only a small percentage of residents in each place tested positive but their graphs for deaths and cases look the same, rising up to a peak and then descending towards zero. Neither place has had a big surge in new cases. Why? It can't be lockdowns and masks because Sweden did neither. The only explanation is that a herd immunity threshold was reached in both places. There are other countries and states where you see the same thing.

85429

Florida has had a big surge in cases because the threshold has not been met here yet. But it looks like the surge in new cases is starting a downward trend, just as I predicted at the beginning of July in another thread. If this downward trend in cases continues then the death totals will start to go down as well in a few weeks.

85430

I always wonder whether the goal is to educate or show power. To further understanding or to be right.

I wonder this about posters and public figures on this issue.

I wish that the internet MSN News Feed did not FEED us opinion pieces, even from valid sources as headlines. I wish there was a clear distance between science and politics.

I wish all could see that we got another bug from that area which is gonna badly harm us. It requires a much more complicated vaccine. I don't know that anything other than our own individual choices can protect us. I don't know what will happen but it is NO hoax and no plot. It is a terrible killer with awful spikes all over it and it kills a lot of older people and harms a lot of younger people and there is no cure for it.

[Chabill]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425

What's your point... or is this just FYI?

[merrymini]

Population was lot lower then and China hasn’t taken over the world yet by stealing. Until China get rid of its wet markets and enter’s the 20 century with food handling more virus’s to come. Each time outbreak happens it seems to get more deadly.

It seems to be the case that the wet market blame was a ruse by china to deceive. They were not practicing good lab protocols which may be worse than letting it out on purpose. It goes to show how you can bring a country or countries to its knees with the help of the media and non critical thinking of the people who watch the media. Numbers are fascinating. People do not understand how easily manipulated they are. Do not believe all you hear or see.

[ldivens]

What to make of this? It might all be about power and money now, life was a lot different back then.

[davem4616]

It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.


Here, here! Spot on.

[ldivens]

I know of several people who never even took the test and were notified they were positive. They were in several different states. Most people at risk have co-morbidities which make this virus a real problem for them and they should take precautions all the time. The biggest problem with the covid-19 numbers is the money our government has allocated that encourages the cases and deaths to be "doctored" because of the "elective" surgery shutdown. There have been studies that indicate keeping healthy people locked up for long periods of time away from people their immune system to be compromised and can cause mental health issues. These people out of work are worried about feeding their families, yet hundreds of thousands are out there protesting, destroying small businesses and spreading the virus and killing even more people either with violence or covid-19.

[SoCOLDinNY]

I can never understand the fascination people have in trying to minimize this virus. You cannot really compare it to any other illness because it is a new virus and we don’t know everything about it. I was alive in 1957 and I think if 145,000 people had died in 4 1/2 months we would have heard something. This virus has cause damage in every organ in some people and unique issues in young children such as inflammation in their bodies. The highly contagious aspect of this virus from people with no symptoms is another unique factor.


I cannot understand the fascination people have in exploiting the virus as a death sentence. The next round of fear and anxiety will be centered around the vaccine.

[Micki]

My 2 cents I believe in 1957 people were tougher, there was no instant communications, the media reported news not created hysteria. I also believe people weren’t traveling as much or affluent as they are today. It adds up to a number of factors.

They were definitely tougher!

[Micki]

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

And it is was done on purpose.

[Micki]

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

Unfortunately it’s been proven the numbers are untrustworthy. People who went to have tests but left before actually being tested are being notified the test they did not take came out positive. People dying in accidents such as motorcycle related have Covid as the cause of death on their death certificates. In fact, most anyone who is positive for Covid, but dies for any reason, are going down as Covid deaths. People Have tested positive and then continued to get tested every other day until their tests come back negative. If they had seven tests each of those tests have been counted as a new infection. That’s seven new infections counted for one person! Finally, people who have had the unreliable test done nasally and had that test come out positive have also had blood tests for Covid, which are much more reliable, and had those tests come back negative. Just because you may have inhaled the virus doesn’t necessarily mean you are infected.

All of these things mentioned above show that we cannot trust the numbers being published, and that it’s a given that both the infection rates and death rates have been artificially inflated and do not reflect reality.

[bobnyce]

I am no scientist but shutting down the entire economy, except of course paying all government employees, is a very big step which has caused much unknown misery but not for government employees who stayed home and got full pay!!!!!! Wake up America and demand our politicians have the same rules and benefits as all of us, social security and medicare - not special everything that protects them and costs you!

[airstreamingypsy]

The 57 flu killed a lot more young people than covid, which kills mainly the old[/QUOTE]

Covid isn't finished killing. Why don't you wait til it's finished before you make projections.

[DecaturFargo]

Scientists are suggesting that October and November may be the deadliest yet. If that's the case, we will reach close to 300,000 deaths in the U.S.

[Micki]

Our population has grown 92% since then. Can you imagine how horrible life would be in this country if our population is 633 million in 2083, or 1,216,500,000 in 2146? The world's biggest problem is population growth, not a pandemic. Both the U.S. population and the world's population has continued to grow right through this pandemic.

There are other people who think this way. Bill Gates, the guy who wants us all to take the vaccine when it comes out also wants to lower the population of the earth to half a billion people. There’s a little over 7.8 billion people right now, which means the man who wants to save our lives also wants to eliminate 7.3 billion of us. Isn’t that odd? Not to worry, I’m pretty certain that in a couple of years we’re going to start seeing a drastic population reduction. Hope you’re prepared for it, chances are you and I are not going to be part of the half a billion.

[OETTING]

China wasn’t a factor either which keeps seeding the US

Please explain your post, and if able, offer evidence of your position.

[omimom]

Except - I just found this article that says a vaccine was ready by the time the 57 flu hit the US or we would have had MANY more deaths. Interesting - check it out.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY (https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman)

and another article estimating the death toll could have been over 1,000,000 had the vaccine not been ready-

Event Date
1957
Included in All Dates?
Yes
Unique ID
100808
Associated Media Filename


Maurice Hilleman and his colleagues at WRAIR identified a new influenza A virus, Type A2, Asian influenza, that caused a pandemic.

Hilleman noticed news reports of a severe influenza in Hong Kong. The number of cases and their description led him to think that a new type of influenza was emerging and that a pandemic threatened.

Hilleman and his team obtained a sample of the virus from a U.S. serviceman. They soon determined that most people lacked antibody protection from the new influenza virus. Only a few elderly people who had survived the influenza pandemic of 1889-1890 showed antibody response to the new virus.

Hilleman jump-started vaccine production by sending virus samples to manufacturers and urging them to develop the vaccine in four months. Worldwide, from 1957-1958, about 2 million people died from Asian flu, with about 70,000 deaths in the United States. Some predicted that the U.S. death toll would have reached 1 million without the vaccine that Hilleman called for. Health officials widely credited that vaccine with saving many lives.

[JimJohnson]

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY (https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman)

That’s a fact that debunks this OP,s thread. Why do some want this Covid 19 to be downplayed. Covid is in its early stages and is already far more deadly than the 1957 flu. If this Covid would have been taken seriously in Mar, maybe, but under the current handling, it is a disaster.

[OhioBuckeye]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425

I hear what you’re saying but if the people that had the flu wouldn’t or couldn’t go out & throwing up every which stitch & the people that my have Covid19 may not know they have it but may or will give it to people that may react to it differently. Just me but I would rather get the flu & be throwing up for a couple of days than being quarantined for 10 to 14 days or worse. COVID 19 been here for 6 to 7 months, flu last a month, maybe 2 months. I was 10 yrs. old in 57 & had the flu but I was fortunate & was only out of school for 1 week because I had the stomach flu & the Hershey Squirts! But you are right, but remember we didn’t have the medicines we have now. Wear a mask & keep your distant.

[GoodLife]

I always wonder whether the goal is to educate or show power. To further understanding or to be right.

I wonder this about posters and public figures on this issue.

I wish that the internet MSN News Feed did not FEED us opinion pieces, even from valid sources as headlines. I wish there was a clear distance between science and politics.

I wish all could see that we got another bug from that area which is gonna badly harm us. It requires a much more complicated vaccine. I don't know that anything other than our own individual choices can protect us. I don't know what will happen but it is NO hoax and no plot. It is a terrible killer with awful spikes all over it and it kills a lot of older people and harms a lot of younger people and there is no cure for it.

Most of the threads I start are based on scientists and scientific papers. "here's what this Nobel Prize winner is saying, here's what these highly cited epidemiologists are saying." I find most people do not understand or even read the links provided. so sometimes I will link a news article about the science if it correctly summarizes the main points. Of course I hope the science that shows herd immunity threshold is much lower than previously thought because that means this will be over sooner rather than later. You would think everyone would want that! I have never called this virus a hoax and am probably more careful than 90% of commenters here.

Your MSN news feed is full of garbage. Facts and stats are manipulated, opinion poses as news. Most of it is panic porn.

Yes covid 19 kills a lot of older people. 80% of deaths are over 65. But more than 50% of those deaths occur in nursing homes. Average time from entering nursing home to death is 12 months, WHEN THERE IS NO PANDEMIC.

As for harming a lot of young people, it's just not true. Look at the CDC stats by age group in link below.

So far 36 kids 14 and under have died from covid 19. All of them had preexisting health problems. So far this year 205 kids 14 and under have died from pneumonia. According to CDC more people 44 and less have died from pneumonia this year than from covid 19.

Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku)

[Chi-Town]

My first memory of a pandemic in this country was the Hong Kong Flu of 1968. My mother was sick in bed for days and days, and I had to call an ambulance to take my grandfather to the hospital where he recovered but was never the same healthwise. These people were really sick. That flu really took a toll on the elderly. But this covid-19 virus is the scariest I have ever seen.

1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html)

[NancyLee]

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

The garden-variety flu virus does not leave after effects that last as long as a person lives. A person's lungs will never be the same. One should listen to the medical experts more often. It would be better and safer than keeping one's head in the sand.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by graciegirl View Post
According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.


That’s a fact that debunks this OP,s thread. Why do some want this Covid 19 to be downplayed. Covid is in its early stages and is already far more deadly than the 1957 flu. If this Covid would have been taken seriously in Mar, maybe, but under the current handling, it is a disaster.

LOL I will take the CDC number of 116,000 as fact over a history.com link

In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.

1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html)

[Bucco]

Note in 1957....

We, as a country, were actually communicating with others in the world.

We had a plan in place, which was put into place as soon as we became aware. As in January of 2020.

To my knowledge, our country still does not have a plan....we were told one was being "worked on"

[GoodLife]

The 57 flu killed a lot more young people than covid, which kills mainly the old

Covid isn't finished killing. Why don't you wait til it's finished before you make projections.

Did you miss this part in my OP?

Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today.

[jimjamuser]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425
Herd immunity is a "happy talk" joke played on the US, that is about downplaying the severity of CV, which has and will KILL thousands in the US - as it has been proven in Sweden. It is pushed by one or 2 cable channels that specialize in propaganda and Soviet style indoctination. Also a few radio hosts.
Hundreds of REAL medical scientists and Doctors (the best in America) have signed a letter telling politicians to go back to "shut-down"mode. People can either believe these professionals or they can put their heads in the sand - listen to "happy talk" and the "down-pllayers". If you listen to the "down-players", then you and your friends have a chance of DYING. If you listen to the Professionals you have a good chance of LIVING. I choose living, just like I choose to snap my seat belt on when I drive. So, like me, YOU must choose. Think and choose wisely! Also ask yourself, "What is the motivation behind the "down-players"?????

[Gizemo33]

Good life, I have read your very detailed message twice and have reached the conclusion that you do not think the current worldwide panic and pandemic is actually as bad as it's being reported.

If I have misinterpreted what you were trying to say I extend my apology in advance and suggest you do not read any further.

If I'm correct, then I would suggest you just leave your house - go to the bars - go to the restaurants - don't wear a mask - don't take any precautionary measures and just say the hell with it.

In addition, please make sure that you DO NOT FOLLOW any of the precautions that I am going to state below;

Remember you should always wear a mask.

I would rather wear a mask now then a respirator later.

Remember correct social distancing -- 6 feet BACK or you could windup 6 feet UNDER.

Doing everything in your power to end COVID-19 is not a choice it is a NECESSITY!!!

It is time to stop the reopening of schools while we are in the middle of a pandemic. Children can die from COVID-19.

What about the exposure to the teachers - especially the older teachers.

This is the battle you should all be undertaking NOW!!! Public demonstrations need to start immediately.

PS -- don't tell Roxanne





Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425

[GoodLife]

Herd immunity is a "happy talk" joke played on the US, that is about downplaying the severity of CV, which has and will KILL thousands in the US - as it has been proven in Sweden. It is pushed by one or 2 cable channels that specialize in propaganda and Soviet style indoctination. Also a few radio hosts.
Hundreds of REAL medical scientists and Doctors (the best in America) have signed a letter telling politicians to go back to "shut-down"mode. People can either believe these professionals or they can put their heads in the sand - listen to "happy talk" and the "down-pllayers". If you listen to the "down-players", then you and your friends have a chance of DYING. If you listen to the Professionals you have a good chance of LIVING. I choose living, just like I choose to snap my seat belt on when I drive. So, like me, YOU must choose. Think and choose wisely! Also ask yourself, "What is the motivation behind the "down-players"?????

I rest my case with this prime example of not understanding or reading scientific links posted previously in the thread. :) Not even capable of understanding a graph which shows unmistakable evidence of low herd immunity thresholds.

I wonder what is the motivation of the "up players?"

[GoodLife]

Good life, I have read your very detailed message twice and have reached the conclusion that you do not think the current worldwide panic and pandemic is actually as bad as it's being reported.

If I have misinterpreted what you were trying to say I extend my apology in advance and suggest you do not read any further.

If I'm correct, then I would suggest you just leave your house - go to the bars - go to the restaurants - don't wear a mask - don't take any precautionary measures and just say the hell with it.

In addition, please make sure that you DO NOT FOLLOW any of the precautions that I am going to state below;

Remember you should always wear a mask.

I would rather wear a mask now then a respirator later.

Remember correct social distancing -- 6 feet BACK or you could windup 6 feet UNDER.

Doing everything in your power to end COVID-19 is not a choice it is a NECESSITY!!!

It is time to stop the reopening of schools while we are in the middle of a pandemic. Children can die from COVID-19.

What about the exposure to the teachers - especially the older teachers.

This is the battle you should all be undertaking NOW!!! Public demonstrations need to start immediately.

PS -- don't tell Roxanne

For the 1000th time. I am more careful than 90% of commenters here. Don't need or use a mask because I do not enter any buildings except home, and stay 20 feet or more from others when outside. Of course I think covid 19 is bad, mostly for the old or unhealthy. I think the panic and response with lockdowns for everybody was overdone. The media boosts the panic because most of them do not want the economy to recover "too soon" We would probably be over this already if we had just told the old and the unhealthy to stay home and let the young and healthy keep working and achieve herd immunity faster.

36 kids 14 and under have died from covid 19 in the USA. Pneumonia kills more people under 44 than covid 19. See CDC link previously posted.

Sweden kept schools open and had ZERO deaths in 19 and under age group. They had covid positives in 53 per 100,000 teachers and could not say if those teachers were infected while working or while having coffee or dinner at their open restaurants and bars.

[jimjamuser]

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this.

Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.
True that! Great informative and personal opinion.

[justjim]

It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.

Well said and spot on.

[jimjamuser]

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.
I call BS on the fact that the world economy is not crushed, only the US. Europe, especially Germany is back thriving! As is Japan, New Zealand, S.Korea, Australia and our neighbor Canada. WE are the ones that missed the boat. Incidentally on a per capita basis, ready for it ? - Florida is the #1 worse CV cases and deaths in the WORLD. Let THAT sink in!

[jimjamuser]

Please quit with herd immunity BS. Please. 4 million have been identified as positive. Let’s say the number represents 1/2 actually infected. That represents 2% of the population. Herd immunity requires something closer to 50-60% and that assumes antibodies provide long-term immunity which has not been shown. So again, just STOP.
I totally agree Mr Lion. You go big cat. You are roaring out the truth!!!!!!!

[Bob Magoon]

It was called the Asian Flu

[graciegirl]

It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.

EXCELLENT POST, sir.

[jimjamuser]

Our population has grown 92% since then. Can you imagine how horrible life would be in this country if our population is 633 million in 2083, or 1,216,500,000 in 2146? The world's biggest problem is population growth, not a pandemic. Both the U.S. population and the world's population has continued to grow right through this pandemic.
You ARE spot on!!!! The population growth problem UNDERLIES all US and world problems. It causes Global Warming. It causes starvation in the Muslim middle east and Northern Africa, whose people migrate northward and have caused problems for a stable Germany and other northern European countries. It promotes PLAGUES like our current CV plague! The US faces the problems of illegal alien migration caused by overpopulation. - A.I. and Robotics could cause future permanent unemployment of 30%. Society is going to be in turmoil for the foreseeable future.

[jimjamuser]

Sorry but no, I won't stop :icon_wink:

It's obvious that many do not read the numerous links I have posted.

To review:

CDC Director recently stated that there are 10 times more asymptomatics than confirmed positives tested. Other scientists think it could be 20 times.

New studies by scientists have discovered that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity to covid 19 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, say scientists (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12146931/uk-may-have-herd-immunity-prevent-second-coronavirus-wave-scientists/)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

Yes antibodies fade with time, but your T and B cells retain memory of the virus and can produce new antibodies if they are needed. T cell memory of Sars 1 tested as effective 17 years after exposure. Antibodies don't need to last forever to stop a pandemic anyway, just a few months will do nicely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months | medRxiv (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20151126v1)

If you don't understand all the science, just look at graphs of deaths or cases in places like Sweden or New York. Only a small percentage of residents in each place tested positive but their graphs for deaths and cases look the same, rising up to a peak and then descending towards zero. Neither place has had a big surge in new cases. Why? It can't be lockdowns and masks because Sweden did neither. The only explanation is that a herd immunity threshold was reached in both places. There are other countries and states where you see the same thing.

85429

Florida has had a big surge in cases because the threshold has not been met here yet. But it looks like the surge in new cases is starting a downward trend, just as I predicted at the beginning of July in another thread. If this downward trend in cases continues then the death totals will start to go down as well in a few weeks.

85430
I will remember this Florida prediction and get back about that in 2 or 3 weeks.

[jimjamuser]

I always wonder whether the goal is to educate or show power. To further understanding or to be right.

I wonder this about posters and public figures on this issue.

I wish that the internet MSN News Feed did not FEED us opinion pieces, even from valid sources as headlines. I wish there was a clear distance between science and politics.

I wish all could see that we got another bug from that area which is gonna badly harm us. It requires a much more complicated vaccine. I don't know that anything other than our own individual choices can protect us. I don't know what will happen but it is NO hoax and no plot. It is a terrible killer with awful spikes all over it and it kills a lot of older people and harms a lot of younger people and there is no cure for it.
I was thinking that myself. I am sssooo glad that someone had the goob-smackers to write it.

[P&WBryant]

There are none so blind as those who WILL NOT SEE.

[Stan P]

You forgot to mention one thing, we knew it was coming and already had a vaccine ready when it got to the US shores.

[jimjamuser]

Most of the threads I start are based on scientists and scientific papers. "here's what this Nobel Prize winner is saying, here's what these highly cited epidemiologists are saying." I find most people do not understand or even read the links provided. so sometimes I will link a news article about the science if it correctly summarizes the main points. Of course I hope the science that shows herd immunity threshold is much lower than previously thought because that means this will be over sooner rather than later. You would think everyone would want that! I have never called this virus a hoax and am probably more careful than 90% of commenters here.

Your MSN news feed is full of garbage. Facts and stats are manipulated, opinion poses as news. Most of it is panic porn.

Yes covid 19 kills a lot of older people. 80% of deaths are over 65. But more than 50% of those deaths occur in nursing homes. Average time from entering nursing home to death is 12 months, WHEN THERE IS NO PANDEMIC.

As for harming a lot of young people, it's just not true. Look at the CDC stats by age group in link below.

So far 36 kids 14 and under have died from covid 19. All of them had preexisting health problems. So far this year 205 kids 14 and under have died from pneumonia. According to CDC more people 44 and less have died from pneumonia this year than from covid 19.

Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku)
True about, " not calling CV a hoax". Kudos. True about nursing homes being a area that spreads CV and needs special attention. Children are more "spreaders" than they are victims of CV. That much is true of ALL statements made today. Keep up the sterling work.

[jimjamuser]

My first memory of a pandemic in this country was the Hong Kong Flu of 1968. My mother was sick in bed for days and days, and I had to call an ambulance to take my grandfather to the hospital where he recovered but was never the same healthwise. These people were really sick. That flu really took a toll on the elderly. But this covid-19 virus is the scariest I have ever seen.

1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html)
Roger that, Townee.

[Bucco]

That’s a fact that debunks this OP,s thread. Why do some want this Covid 19 to be downplayed. Covid is in its early stages and is already far more deadly than the 1957 flu. If this Covid would have been taken seriously in Mar, maybe, but under the current handling, it is a disaster.

First, we could have taken this seriously as early as late January, certainly early February when our intelligence community was doing so. Actually WHO had sent out the first, that i know of, reports to all members through the world as early as January 10.

Why down play it ?

You must understand the differences between 1957 and this year. In 1957, despite the many philosophical differences throughout the world, medicine was never made anything other than a threat to human beings. It had not much impact on P motives or aspirations. Scientists throughout the world talked to each other and shared information with no interference.

Today, and throughout this pandemic, we have failed on every level. Heads of state(s) deciding to interfere with real scientific data, research and suggestions for whatever reason.

This Corona virus has been full of overtones from the beginnings.

I offer a suggestion to try to THINKGLOBALHEALTH for information, and lots of pics addressing the who, what, where and when of this and other pandemics. I am not supplying the link since it "may" inadvertently take you to a page not allowed on here although that is NOT the nature of the site

[jimjamuser]

I rest my case with this prime example of not understanding or reading scientific links posted previously in the thread. :) Not even capable of understanding a graph which shows unmistakable evidence of low herd immunity thresholds.

I wonder what is the motivation of the "up players?"
I admitt to being old and feeble! Too old to read graphs (like comparing US cases and deaths to European countries). I can BARELY see the graphs with my 20-1000 vision. So I just listen to old audio tapes by Dr. Spock on Star Trek.

[Aloha1]

So many posters here with their own agenda. And a lot of misinformation. Herd immunity is not real?? It's a long standing medical science fact that diseases tend to die out when herd immunity is reached. Hundreds of "medical professionals" want the country shut down again?? Well about 125 people with a connection to medicine did ask that. Dr. Fauci, in response said that would be a mistake.

The facts have no agenda, they are just the facts. The OP is a good researcher and has presented well thought out posts. Stop with the criticism already. If you don't agree, post research to back up your point, not opinion.

The OP has NEVER said the virus is fake, a ruse, nor said anything about not wearing masks. To the contrary, he has been very consistent in his views about this virus, that it is deadly and we should take common sense precautions like wearing masks and social distancing. What the OP HAS said and posted are data points regarding the true state of this virus.

I had the Asian Flu in 1957 and was hospitalized for 5 days because I couldn't shake my 104 degree fever. Sickest I've ever been in my life.

I take this disease seriously and wear a mask when in stores or crowds (which I avoid), carry sanitizer wherever I go, and wash my hands when I come back from a store. But I will not let this virus prevent me from living life.

[graciegirl]

First, we could have taken this seriously as early as late January, certainly early February when our intelligence community was doing so. Actually WHO had sent out the first, that i know of, reports to all members through the world as early as January 10.

Why down play it ?

You must understand the differences between 1957 and this year. In 1957, despite the many philosophical differences throughout the world, medicine was never made anything other than a threat to human beings. It had not much impact on P motives or aspirations. Scientists throughout the world talked to each other and shared information with no interference.

Today, and throughout this pandemic, we have failed on every level. Heads of state(s) deciding to interfere with real scientific data, research and suggestions for whatever reason.

This Corona virus has been full of overtones from the beginnings.

I offer a suggestion to try to THINKGLOBALHEALTH for information, and lots of pics addressing the who, what, where and when of this and other pandemics. I am not supplying the link since it "may" inadvertently take you to a page not allowed on here although that is NOT the nature of the site

March is when the earliest cases were recognized in U.S. Before that was confusion world wide as to what exactly was happening. It was in February when people sickened and began to die in droves in Italy.

I think that not only public health but valid expert doctors and researchers in hospitals in the U.S. should be part of a team of experts that guide us. People do not have to work for the government to be expert on vaccines and communicable diseases. At the time of the Ebola outbreak, The U.S. went without a surgeon general for the better part of two years. It was Vanderbilt's physicians that guided us in the Ebola outbreak. Some members of the staff died in a hospital in Texas before that happened. It is unrealistic to blame people now when no one could have known how bad this would be.

[Byte1]

Oh my, the sky is falling!
Everyone has an opinion. One person on here is decent enough to give us REAL stats so that the rest of us do not need to speculate, and his motive is questioned.
In my opinion, he is merely providing information so that it will put many minds at ease as to exactly how much one needs to worry. In my opinion, you do what you feel you need to do to protect you and yours, and quit worrying what everyone else is doing. Just because one person has an opinion, does not mean that your opinion needs to demand that others conform to your standards. Best way to avoid the virus (in my opinion) is to stay home and accept no visitors. If you wander around in public, it is ONLY your fault if you become infected, not anyone else's that you feel is not protecting you enough.
I enjoy the OP's sharing of his information. I look forward to it. If you do not agree with it, then provide your own counter information.
Personally, I want three facts which will make it very easy to modify my current lifestyle.
I want to know how many COVID 19 hospitalizations in the Sumter Co. portion of the Villages.
I want to know how many related deaths that were CAUSED by COVID 19 in the Villages portion of the Villages.
I want to know how many of the hospitalizations have survived and have been released.

The number of positive tests for infection means nothing unless you test everyone in an area on the same day. EVERYONE. Testing a hundred one day and a thousand on another day and saying that there were more testing positive on the second day is not even scientific.

I believe that this virus has been around a lot longer than just since March. I believe it has been around at least since sometime last year and no one has realized it until this year. Since most folks that die from it have some other health issues, I believe that many have died from it and it was deemed death by the chronic condition. This is my opinion, and I will predict that when this is all over and more investigation is done, we will find out that the reason it is so widespread in such a short period of time, is that it was already here. Just my speculation, of course.

It is also my opinion that mass hysteria helps no one. I am not suggesting that anyone ignore the world situation, but running amok and crying that the sky is falling is not going to make you any healthier or prevent the outcome one bit. However, you may end up with stress related illness.

[Sherry8bal]

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

I totally agree with you!!

[The Mountaineer]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425
1957 swine flu
Deaths in America: 116,000

2020 coronavirus
Deaths in America: 149,000 (and it’s far from over)

[GoodLife]

So many posters here with their own agenda. And a lot of misinformation. Herd immunity is not real?? It's a long standing medical science fact that diseases tend to die out when herd immunity is reached. Hundreds of "medical professionals" want the country shut down again?? Well about 125 people with a connection to medicine did ask that. Dr. Fauci, in response said that would be a mistake.

The facts have no agenda, they are just the facts. The OP is a good researcher and has presented well thought out posts. Stop with the criticism already. If you don't agree, post research to back up your point, not opinion.

The OP has NEVER said the virus is fake, a ruse, nor said anything about not wearing masks. To the contrary, he has been very consistent in his views about this virus, that it is deadly and we should take common sense precautions like wearing masks and social distancing. What the OP HAS said and posted are data points regarding the true state of this virus.

I had the Asian Flu in 1957 and was hospitalized for 5 days because I couldn't shake my 104 degree fever. Sickest I've ever been in my life.

I take this disease seriously and wear a mask when in stores or crowds (which I avoid), carry sanitizer wherever I go, and wash my hands when I come back from a store. But I will not let this virus prevent me from living life.

Thanks :coolsmiley::coolsmiley:

Yet another study showing T cell immunity in large percentage of population, this is the 4th one I have seen confirming this, all in different parts of the world.

Singapore scientists uncover SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in recovered COVID-19 and SARS patients, and in uninfected individuals.

Singapore study shows that SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells are present in all recovered COVID-19 patients.

These T cells were also found in all subjects who recovered from SARS 17 years ago, and in over 50% of both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 uninfected individuals tested, suggesting that a level of pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 immunity is present in the general population.

Infection and exposure to coronaviruses induces long-lasting memory T cells, which could help in the management of the virus.

Scientists Uncover Evidence That a Level of Pre-Existing COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 Immunity Is Present in the General Population (https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-uncover-evidence-that-a-level-of-pre-existing-covid-19-sars-cov-2-immunity-is-present-in-the-general-population/)

So when you add up the large number of untested asymptomatics out there and even larger number of T cell immunes, you get a herd immunity threshold that is much lower - after the virus picks off the easy targets and infects a fairly small percentage of people, it loses steam and burns out. Just like in New York or Sweden.

[jimjamuser]

Oh my, the sky is falling!
Everyone has an opinion. One person on here is decent enough to give us REAL stats so that the rest of us do not need to speculate, and his motive is questioned.
In my opinion, he is merely providing information so that it will put many minds at ease as to exactly how much one needs to worry. In my opinion, you do what you feel you need to do to protect you and yours, and quit worrying what everyone else is doing. Just because one person has an opinion, does not mean that your opinion needs to demand that others conform to your standards. Best way to avoid the virus (in my opinion) is to stay home and accept no visitors. If you wander around in public, it is ONLY your fault if you become infected, not anyone else's that you feel is not protecting you enough.
I enjoy the OP's sharing of his information. I look forward to it. If you do not agree with it, then provide your own counter information.
Personally, I want three facts which will make it very easy to modify my current lifestyle.
I want to know how many COVID 19 hospitalizations in the Sumter Co. portion of the Villages.
I want to know how many related deaths that were CAUSED by COVID 19 in the Villages portion of the Villages.
I want to know how many of the hospitalizations have survived and have been released.

The number of positive tests for infection means nothing unless you test everyone in an area on the same day. EVERYONE. Testing a hundred one day and a thousand on another day and saying that there were more testing positive on the second day is not even scientific.

I believe that this virus has been around a lot longer than just since March. I believe it has been around at least since sometime last year and no one has realized it until this year. Since most folks that die from it have some other health issues, I believe that many have died from it and it was deemed death by the chronic condition. This is my opinion, and I will predict that when this is all over and more investigation is done, we will find out that the reason it is so widespread in such a short period of time, is that it was already here. Just my speculation, of course.

It is also my opinion that mass hysteria helps no one. I am not suggesting that anyone ignore the world situation, but running amok and crying that the sky is falling is not going to make you any healthier or prevent the outcome one bit. However, you may end up with stress related illness.
Ther is a reported case in Dec.

[Bucco]

March is when the earliest cases were recognized in U.S. Before that was confusion world wide as to what exactly was happening. It was in February when people sickened and began to die in droves in Italy.

I think that not only public health but valid expert doctors and researchers in hospitals in the U.S. should be part of a team of experts that guide us. People do not have to work for the government to be expert on vaccines and communicable diseases. At the time of the Ebola outbreak, The U.S. went without a surgeon general for the better part of two years. It was Vanderbilt's physicians that guided us in the Ebola outbreak. Some members of the staff died in a hospital in Texas before that happened. It is unrealistic to blame people now when no one could have known how bad this would be.

Not trying to place blame.

I simply know the US intelligence was discussing a possible serious problem in January. I know that WHO was sending package on infection and control in early January. I know the US government found the threat to be serious enough to put a ban on China Travel. So, from my perspective our country was aware of a potentially serious problem at minimum in late January. Facts is, on January 21, WHO said that the international threat was high. We were told it was no threat to our country.

On, I think Feb 24 or so, the stock market sunk on fears of the pandemic. We were told all was ok.

Would earlier intervention and following scientific advice at that early stage meant anything. I sure don't know, but seeing a thread comparing 1957 to this situation requires we notice the difference in response.

I am in no position to place blame, if there is blame to be placed.

[GoodLife]

1957 swine flu
Deaths in America: 116,000

2020 coronavirus
Deaths in America: 149,000 (and it’s far from over)


Did you miss the part where this comparison is based on an estimate of 220,000 eventual deaths from covid 19? Not the 149000 we have as of today?

As far as "far from over", nobody knows for sure. It may burn out and go away or it may come back as an endemic type virus. I am working on a post discussing this. Nobody knows for sure.

[anothersteve]

And now for a musical interlude;

The Police - Too Much Information HD - YouTube (https://youtu.be/W0q3Vh1Yr9Q)

Steve

[Yjacket74]

I don't know where you got that CDC number, but at this time there are over 140,000 deaths and over 4,000,000 confirmed cases. That makes the mortality rate at least 3.5% - not .65%. It's easy math 140,000 / 4,000,000. Besides the flu doesn't invade your brain, your blood system and other organs as the NYC pathologists have seen in their autopsies. So the coronavirus is helluva lot more dangerous than the flu - notwithstanding that we don't know what long-term effects will occur in people who were seriously sick and survived.

[Heyitsrick]

Not trying to place blame.

I simply know the US intelligence was discussing a possible serious problem in January. I know that WHO was sending package on infection and control in early January. I know the US government found the threat to be serious enough to put a ban on China Travel. So, from my perspective our country was aware of a potentially serious problem at minimum in late January. Facts is, on January 21, WHO said that the international threat was high. We were told it was no threat to our country.

On, I think Feb 24 or so, the stock market sunk on fears of the pandemic. We were told all was ok.

Would earlier intervention and following scientific advice at that early stage meant anything. I sure don't know, but seeing a thread comparing 1957 to this situation requires we notice the difference in response.

I am in no position to place blame, if there is blame to be placed.

What do you mean by "difference in response"? Was a vaccine available in January of 2020? Is one available now, anywhere in the world? That seems to be the "difference" from the response in 1957.

Much as some people seem to want to make this both political and a US-only issue, it's been a worldwide virus. There are stories out of Europe over the past few days warning of upticks in new virus numbers there.

Coronavirus: Spain drives fears of European 'second wave' - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53539015)

I just looked at a COVID-19 chart by country, including the death rate. The US is 43rd out of the top 50 countries with its death rate by percentage. NO DEATH from this is acceptable. But the US is at 3.58%, lower than:

The UK
Belgium
France
Italy
Hungary
The Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Ireland
Switzerland
Slovenia
Romania
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Lithuania
Poland

There's many more countries that I didn't list - the list above is the ones from Europe who have a higher death rate than the US.

• COVID-19 mortality rate by country | Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/)

The WH corona virus task force was formed on January 29, providing information and guidelines for US residents.

I'm not here to say the president nor anyone else (experts included) have been perfect, in retrospect. But for anyone to suggest nothing was going on in government and it was all fun and games is intellectually dishonest, at best.

[oldtimes]

All of this is just a moot point until it is someone that you know that gets the virus and dies from it. Then the numbers really don't matter.

[GoodLife]

I don't know where you got that CDC number, but at this time there are over 140,000 deaths and over 4,000,000 confirmed cases. That makes the mortality rate at least 3.5% - not .65%. It's easy math 140,000 / 4,000,000. Besides the flu doesn't invade your brain, your blood system and other organs as the NYC pathologists have seen in their autopsies. So the coronavirus is helluva lot more dangerous than the flu - notwithstanding that we don't know what long-term effects will occur in people who were seriously sick and survived.

How many times do I have to repeat this? The CDC's current Infection Fatality Rate is 0.65%

Why? Because like any sane person should know by now, confirmed cases by tests do not represent the true number of people that have been infected. There are millions of asymptomatic cases out there, they are not tested because they do not get sick at all or have very mild symptoms. Here in Florida, we are starting to uncover more and more of these asymptomatic cases because we are testing 100,000 per day and many of them are not sick but require a test to go back to work.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box)

Despite the media scare stories, Florida hospitals are not being overrun with covid cases and report as of today 25% available hospital beds and 18% available ICU rooms. Even the most infected counties like Broward or Miami Dade show 10% ICU availability. Only 15% of occupied beds are actually covid patients. The rest are normal surgeries etc. These are normal occupancy rates even when there is no pandemic.

Workbook':' Public (https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsCounty?%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y)

Median age of Florida new cases has been 41 for past two weeks, people of this age rarely die or even need hospitalization from covid 19 unless they have underlying health problems like obesity, diabetes, hypertension.

According to CDC more people 44 and under have died from pneumonia this year than from covid 19

Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku)

[allsport]

The flu is not he same as Covid19, it is not as contagious and not as deadly. Glad you were tough, try Covid and see.

[Gizemo33]

Larry Kudlow said this on national TV!!!! It must be true!!!! What he is trying to say is WE GOT THIS UNDER CONTROL!!!

SEE BELOW;

“I don’t deny that some of these hotspot states are going to moderate that recovery, but, on the whole, the picture is very positive, and I still think the V-shaped recovery is in place,” White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNN host Jake Tapper on “State of the Nation” on Sunday

[Topspinmo]

It seems to be the case that the wet market blame was a ruse by china to deceive. They were not practicing good lab protocols which may be worse than letting it out on purpose. It goes to show how you can bring a country or countries to its knees with the help of the media and non critical thinking of the people who watch the media. Numbers are fascinating. People do not understand how easily manipulated they are. Do not believe all you hear or see.

I do know enough to NOT eat Bats, bird Shyt nest soup, animals around the lab?. Yep, maybe they did accidently or intentionally release the virus? But, one thing that can't be denied it came from China probably 90 precent of the rest of viruses in last 30 years?

[TomPerrett]

I can’t get over people taking comfort by saying there was something worse so this is ok.
It’s like a drunk sitting at the bar spilling his drink and running his mouth. When the guy next to him passed out and fall of his bar stool. And the first guy says if I ever get that bad I’ll do something about my drinking.

[EdFNJ]

. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.


Or maybe because there was no internet, there was no cable TV, there was no 24hr news, no satellite communications, no TOTV and most people had no idea of the scope of what was happening?

[Two Bills]

There are other people who think this way. Bill Gates, the guy who wants us all to take the vaccine when it comes out also wants to lower the population of the earth to half a billion people. There’s a little over 7.8 billion people right now, which means the man who wants to save our lives also wants to eliminate 7.3 billion of us. Isn’t that odd? Not to worry, I’m pretty certain that in a couple of years we’re going to start seeing a drastic population reduction. Hope you’re prepared for it, chances are you and I are not going to be part of the half a billion.

:ohdear:

[gidget72]

Thank you for posting this ....very interesting

[Byte1]

I find it interesting that if one suggests that folks should not panic, not become hysterical and unhinged over something that they have no control over, then they are automatically declared "deniers." I have seen NO posts declaring this pandemic or the virus a hoax, yet if you do not run amok screaming "the sky is falling" you are accused of saying it is a "hoax."
One poster is patient enough and willing to invest his time doing some research and sharing it with us, and others that don't have a clue decide that he is making little of a national emergency.
How anyone of these hysterical Betties lived through the measles, mumps and polio one can only guess. I bet if some were old enough to understand what was going on during the stock market crash during the depression, they would have been one of those that jumped out of windows.
No one has been attempting to make "little" of the pandemic. All the posts are merely suggesting that we have lived through this type of stuff before and we are strong enough to live through it again. I have not seen any suggestions that you should run naked through Walmart with out a care in the world, or have a neighborhood BBQ at your home. The OP even suggested that he is more diligent in protecting himself than most other folks on here.
Isn't it amusing that some on here seem to one-up the next on how panic stricken we should be? Then there are others that seek to calm the mass hysteria and get chastised for it.

Remember, this is an election year and this plus BLM protests is a great tool to garner voter support when record and policies are not enough to move the scale. All this will be pass'e next year.

Am I being overly nonchalant during a crisis? Maybe I just try not to lose my mind when a predicament occurs that I have no control over, so I consider a positive result rather than expect the end of the world. Remember, an illness will have it easier to attack a stressed body than a calm, healthy body.

When someone suggests that you calm down, it does not mean for you to disregard the reality of the situation. It just means that you should attempt to reason coherently, not irrationally due to exigent circumstances beyond your control. Doctors and your Gov. officials are not always right. To misuse President Reagan's quote "trust but verify" which I believe he borrowed from an old Russian saying.

[Bucco]

I find it interesting that if one suggests that folks should not panic, not become hysterical and unhinged over something that they have no control over, then they are automatically declared "deniers." I have seen NO posts declaring this pandemic or the virus a hoax, yet if you do not run amok screaming "the sky is falling" you are accused of saying it is a "hoax."
One poster is patient enough and willing to invest his time doing some research and sharing it with us, and others that don't have a clue decide that he is making little of a national emergency.
How anyone of these hysterical Betties lived through the measles, mumps and polio one can only guess. I bet if some were old enough to understand what was going on during the stock market crash during the depression, they would have been one of those that jumped out of windows.
No one has been attempting to make "little" of the pandemic. All the posts are merely suggesting that we have lived through this type of stuff before and we are strong enough to live through it again. I have not seen any suggestions that you should run naked through Walmart with out a care in the world, or have a neighborhood BBQ at your home. The OP even suggested that he is more diligent in protecting himself than most other folks on here.
Isn't it amusing that some on here seem to one-up the next on how panic stricken we should be? Then there are others that seek to calm the mass hysteria and get chastised for it.

Remember, this is an election year and this plus BLM protests is a great tool to garner voter support when record and policies are not enough to move the scale. All this will be pass'e next year.

Am I being overly nonchalant during a crisis? Maybe I just try not to lose my mind when a predicament occurs that I have no control over, so I consider a positive result rather than expect the end of the world. Remember, an illness will have it easier to attack a stressed body than a calm, healthy body.

When someone suggests that you calm down, it does not mean for you to disregard the reality of the situation. It just means that you should attempt to reason coherently, not irrationally due to exigent circumstances beyond your control. Doctors and your Gov. officials are not always right. To misuse President Reagan's quote "trust but verify" which I believe he borrowed from an old Russian saying.

from my perspective....

....Nobody should be getting their data or taking suggestions that are posted on this site.

....And still Representatives and Senators in various states continually call this entire thing a hoax. (see Arkansas and Texas as examples.

....People die thinking until their last breath that it was a hoax (a number of sad stories about Covid parties)

So where does one go for advice.......government.....

....as recently as March of this year as companies were shutting down, our government said that it was NOT their responsibility.....actual quote is available.

.....Medical advisors.....Gov in Florida has put aside his medical advisors replaced by business advisors.

.....A number of folks, NOT medical people are straight forward in saying they want to discredit the world leader in this field (Dr F) so that locks that door


Everyone is looking for clarity and one trusted message.

Your advice ???......I think many on here are practicing safe habits and looking for some good news, but not from a forum......

Just my take on it

[Barefoot]

...

[GoodLife]

from my perspective....

....Nobody should be getting their data or taking suggestions that are posted on this site.

....And still Representatives and Senators in various states continually call this entire thing a hoax. (see Arkansas and Texas as examples.

....People die thinking until their last breath that it was a hoax (a number of sad stories about Covid parties)

So where does one go for advice.......government.....

....as recently as March of this year as companies were shutting down, our government said that it was NOT their responsibility.....actual quote is available.

.....Medical advisors.....Gov in Florida has put aside his medical advisors replaced by business advisors.

.....A number of folks, NOT medical people are straight forward in saying they want to discredit the world leader in this field (Dr F) so that locks that door


Everyone is looking for clarity and one trusted message.

Your advice ???......I think many on here are practicing safe habits and looking for some good news, but not from a forum......

Just my take on it

LOL A "take" without a single cite to back it up. I have cited the CDC in this thread several times to correct false comments made by many.

Purpose of this thread was simply to show that some previous outbreaks of the flu caused equal amounts of death and sickness as covid 19 and were not accompanied by the panic and economic chaos we see today.

Quiz time: Who said this?

“The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"

[Barefoot]

Am I being overly nonchalant during a crisis?
Maybe I just try not to lose my mind when a predicament occurs that I have no control over, so I consider a positive result rather than expect the end of the world.
Remember, an illness will have it easier to attack a stressed body than a calm, healthy body.
When someone suggests that you calm down, it does not mean for you to disregard the reality of the situation....snipped...:agree:

[Aloha1]

I do know enough to NOT eat Bats, bird Shyt nest soup, animals around the lab?. Yep, maybe they did accidently or intentionally release the virus? But, one thing that can't be denied it came from China probably 90 precent of the rest of viruses in last 30 years?

Actually over the last 2,000 years, at least two Black Death plagues, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Hong Flu, Asian Flu, Sars, etc.

[Aloha1]

LOL A "take" without a single cite to back it up. I have cited the CDC in this thread several times to correct false comments made by many.

Purpose of this thread was simply to show that some previous outbreaks of the flu caused equal amounts of death and sickness as covid 19 and were not accompanied by the panic and economic chaos we see today.

Quiz time: Who said this?

“The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"

Answer: Both Anthony Fauci AND Robert Redfield on March 26th in a New England Journal of Medicine editorial.

[GoodLife]

So, this is nothing more than your opinion and you have no facts to back it up.

Here is an eyewitness account by someone who was in college in 1957 and got sick with the flu.

Remembering the 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic (https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic)

And here is front page of New York Times during the height of the first wave of 57 flu. Sputnik and Jimmy Hoffa's election as Teamster's head were bigger stories than the flu. No big panic like today

85457

[GoodLife]

Answer: Both Anthony Fauci AND Robert Redfield on March 26th in a New England Journal of Medicine editorial.

Correct, you get a star :)

[EdFNJ]

Quiz time: Who said this?

“The overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"

Answer: Both Anthony Fauci AND Robert Redfield on March 26th in a New England Journal of Medicine editorial.

Correct, you get a star :)

Like you have said in multiple posts over and over (paraphrasing) "how many times does something need to be restated."

Of course what you are selectively picking are quotes from a full 4 months ago to fit your agenda which is like the beginning of history WRT this situation. As time moves on one would HOPE that things would be learned and opinions updated from new SCIENCE and practices. One would hope that procedures and understanding would change because of what has been learned. If you want to keep looking BACKWARDS in time quoting people's quotes that have little bearing on TODAY (or ever) I could post a bunch from famous people but it would probably get me banned for breaking the no politics rules.

Oh, I'd bet Anthony Fauci AND Robert Redfield DON'T say that anymore.

[Bay Kid]

In 1957 we had a media that was honest and leaders that loved our country.

[GoodLife]

Answer: Both Anthony Fauci AND Robert Redfield on March 26th in a New England Journal of Medicine editorial.

Like you have said in multiple posts over and over (paraphrasing) "how many times does something need to be restated."

Of course what you are selectively picking are quotes from a full 4 months ago to fit your agenda which is like the beginning of history WRT this situation. As time moves on one would HOPE that things would be learned and opinions updated from new SCIENCE and practices. One would hope that procedures and understanding would change because of what has been learned. If you want to keep looking BACKWARDS in time quoting people's quotes that have little bearing on TODAY (or ever) I could post a bunch from famous people but it would probably get me banned for breaking the no politics rules.

Oh, I'd bet Anthony Fauci AND Robert Redfield DON'T say that anymore.

First of all, I did not produce this comparison of 57 flu to coronavirus, a scientist named Balloux did, the same scientist who sequenced the coronavirus genome.

The facts speak for themselves, the fatality rates for the two diseases are virtually the same (0.65% and 0.67%) and the deaths per million are also very close. The 57 flu killed far more people per capita worldwide than covid 19 has so far (383 vs 84 per million) So the statement by Fauci and Redfield is a viable description, coronavirus is similar to a severe seasonal influenza.

[oldtimes]

There are other people who think this way. Bill Gates, the guy who wants us all to take the vaccine when it comes out also wants to lower the population of the earth to half a billion people. There’s a little over 7.8 billion people right now, which means the man who wants to save our lives also wants to eliminate 7.3 billion of us. Isn’t that odd? Not to worry, I’m pretty certain that in a couple of years we’re going to start seeing a drastic population reduction. Hope you’re prepared for it, chances are you and I are not going to be part of the half a billion.

Do you get your news from Facebook?

[ctmurray]

After your post I looked this up. And indeed the death rates are about the same. The BIG difference is that we have were shut down for weeks, some have been social distancing and wearing a mask, and hospitals have been aggressively trying to save lives. In 1957 they did none of these things. So Covid-19 is much more communicable and deadly. This is why the scientists and doctors involved recommended these mitigation efforts as they saw this from the early infections.

[GoodLife]

After your post I looked this up. And indeed the death rates are about the same. The BIG difference is that we have were shut down for weeks, some have been social distancing and wearing a mask, and hospitals have been aggressively trying to save lives. In 1957 they did none of these things. So Covid-19 is much more communicable and deadly. This is why the scientists and doctors involved recommended these mitigation efforts as they saw this from the early infections.

The 57 flu was just as contagious and deadly as covid 19. All you have to do is look at infection rate and deaths per million. The big difference between the two diseases is not social distancing and masks. In 1957, thanks to Hilleman, we had a vaccine ready. Without that vaccine, 57 flu would have killed A LOT more people.

[graciegirl]

The 57 flu was just as contagious and deadly as covid 19. All you have to do is look at infection rate and deaths per million. The big difference between the two diseases is not social distancing and masks. In 1957, thanks to Hilleman, we had a vaccine ready. Without that vaccine, 57 flu would have killed A LOT more people.

SO......that was then and this reality is NOW.

I think the point of our discussion now, today, with us, in The Villages, is just stayin' alive.........and most of us are trying to. NOT DEBATE WHAT USED TO KILL PEOPLE BETTER.

'I can tell by the way you do your walk you're a woman's man, no time to talk.'

[GoodLife]

SO......that was then and this reality is NOW.

I think the point of our discussion now, today, with us, in The Villages, is just stayin' alive.........and most of us are trying to. NOT DEBATE WHAT USED TO KILL PEOPLE BETTER.

'I can tell by the way you do your walk you're a woman's man, no time to talk.'

I just checked and most of us are not in the class room anymore.

So we talk about anything we please (within forum guidelines) :icon_wink:

[Byte1]

SO......that was then and this reality is NOW.

I think the point of our discussion now, today, with us, in The Villages, is just stayin' alive.........and most of us are trying to. NOT DEBATE WHAT USED TO KILL PEOPLE BETTER.

'I can tell by the way you do your walk you're a woman's man, no time to talk.'

What I took away from the information he provided is NOT that this ain't so bad, but that we have endured similar calamities and withstood, persevered and risen from the ashes a better nation and stronger people. Panic and hysteria is neither healthy or productive. Panic resulted in a toilet paper drought, as well as hand sanitizer scarcity and super markets being cleaned out like the results of a swarm of army ants.
But, like I have said before, if one is not running amok yelling "the sky is falling. It's the end of the world" then we are accused of saying this is all a hoax.

Personally, I look forward to the information provided by this OP. And he has NOT down-played this pandemic. He has only provided information so that many on here can feel more informed and knowledgeable about the illness and the degree of damage it is capable of. Let's face it, the media is not helping much, and seeks to sensationalize whatever they deem newsworthy. And who can trust the gov to provide details (either side of the political spectrum)?

I bet I would get a reaction if I was to don my bio-hazard suit to go shopping. When asked, I could simply say "didn't you hear, the CDC is recommending that everyone wear a bio-hazard suit for protection, because this thing will eat through your skin and hair."

[graciegirl]

I just checked and most of us are not in the class room anymore.

So we talk about anything we please (within forum guidelines) :icon_wink:

Is that all ya got?

[Bucco]

Perhaps we will hear the very latest US govt touted video. The star is Dr. Stella Immanuel.

In addition to her cures for Covid, she also believes that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

[graciegirl]

Perhaps we will hear the very latest US govt touted video. The star is Dr. Stella Immanuel.

In addition to her cures for Covid, she also believes that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

Government touted? The woman has a storefront church and questionable education at best. Government touted??????

[Bucco]

Government touted? The woman has a storefront church and questionable education at best. Government touted??????

Government and family tweeted her video labeled MUST WATCH

[NJRICHARD]

Facebook, Google/YouTube, Twitter Censor Viral Video of Doctors' Capitol Hill Coronavirus Press Conference (https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/07/27/facebook-censors-viral-video-of-doctors-capitol-hill-coronavirus-press-conference/)

[Bucco]

No vaccine worked on like in 1957, but lots of people tried to get attention....

"A group of public health and national security experts who sent some of the earliest and most dire warnings to officials across the .... administration about the gathering coronavirus crisis is now offering a searing assessment of how the federal government blundered through the critical first months of a lethal outbreak."

As coronavirus threatened invasion, a new '''Red Dawn''' team tried to save America - ABC News (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-threatened-invasion-red-dawn-team-save-america/story?id=72000727)

"“We were generally concerned that this was going to be a threat to our nation,” Marcozzi, now a senior official at the University of Maryland’s medical school, told ABC News."

[Two Bills]

Can you not wonder at some of the nonsense you read on TOTV concerning the virus, when questionable 'Doctors' like Dr. Stella Immanuel actually get airspace on the media?
Vaccines with micro chip implants to track you, population depletion plots fom a software seller, the list from dumbnuts gets longer each day!
Look after yourselves, because the lunatics are truly taking over the asylum!!

[Bucco]

Can you not wonder at some of the nonsense you read on TOTV concerning the virus, when questionable 'Doctors' like Dr. Stella Immanuel actually get airspace on the media?
Vaccines with micro chip implants to track you, population depletion plots fom a software seller, the list from dumbnuts gets longer each day!
Look after yourselves, because the lunatics are truly taking over the asylum!!

Ask yourself who EXACTLY is giving them the air space. Not networks...they report what is going on with our government.

[roscoguy]

Yeah...he must find some more obscure, mostly with a P twist, to copy and paste on here. This is an inflated ego on steroids.

Gets very old....his/her manipulated quotes...out of context, mis stated, and used to present his P views while believing he/she is intelligent.

He never address things like you questions, unless he can find an obscure website that fits his needs.

We are dealing with an ever changing situation, and one that does need any more P stimulation

:agree: This the same old pot, stirred by the same trolls. The comparison to Sweden (where the government didn't institute a lock down) didn't work out so well, so now let's compare COVID to ________ (fill in the blank). In these days of the internet, you can find an 'expert' - some very well-respected, others much less so - to back up any theory you like. (The one about Bill Gates , presented in an earlier post to this thread is a prime example. :MOJE_whot:)

We still hope that long-lasting herd immunity applies to Covid-19; but the simple fact is that nobody knows. It sure doesn't seem to have worked out well for Sweden. Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don'''t do what we did. It'''s not working. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-hoped-herd-immunity-curb-080003569.html)
The Mayo Clinic, WebMD & others aren't quite so rosy about the theory either:
Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know - Mayo Clinic (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808)
Herd Immunity: What Is It and Can It End The Coronavirus Pandemic? (https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1)
Sweden shows why herd immunity for coronavirus won'''t work in America - Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-call-herd-immunity-sweden-experiment-coronavirus-not-working-2020-5?op=1)

There were quite a few differences in the pandemics of 1957 and 2020. There was a vaccine for H2N2 in trial within 2 months of the virus reaching the US, so severe measures weren't likely considered necessary. Also, "Making a vaccine for a new flu strain is very different from making a vaccine for something completely new like COVID-19" Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY (https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman) This fact alone could explain a totally different reaction to the outbreaks. Plus, back in 1957, there were no politicians, bloggers, self-proclaimed visionaries, alternative news sources or conspiracy theorists calling H2N2 a hoax.
And really, even IF the death rates from H2N2 & Covid-19 eventually prove to be similar, SO WHAT?

[golfing eagles]

Perhaps we will hear the very latest US govt touted video. The star is Dr. Stella Immanuel.

In addition to her cures for Covid, she also believes that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

You mean that ISN'T the cause? :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[Bucco]

You mean that ISN'T the cause? :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Well, at least two, with influence, give it a shot and as a result, millions contemplating.

[GoodLife]

:agree: This the same old pot, stirred by the same trolls. The comparison to Sweden (where the government didn't institute a lock down) didn't work out so well, so now let's compare COVID to ________ (fill in the blank). In these days of the internet, you can find an 'expert' - some very well-respected, others much less so - to back up any theory you like. (The one about Bill Gates , presented in an earlier post to this thread is a prime example. :MOJE_whot:)

We still hope that long-lasting herd immunity applies to Covid-19; but the simple fact is that nobody knows. It sure doesn't seem to have worked out well for Sweden. Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don'''t do what we did. It'''s not working. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-hoped-herd-immunity-curb-080003569.html)
The Mayo Clinic, WebMD & others aren't quite so rosy about the theory either:
Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know - Mayo Clinic (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808)
Herd Immunity: What Is It and Can It End The Coronavirus Pandemic? (https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1)
Sweden shows why herd immunity for coronavirus won'''t work in America - Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-call-herd-immunity-sweden-experiment-coronavirus-not-working-2020-5?op=1)



You are trying hard and at least you come up with links but unfortunately they are either old and out of date or just completely wrong. Also, calling people trolls if they have a different view is contrary to the rules here and usually means a weak argument is coming. :icon_wink:

Mayo clinic link: June 6
Business Insider link: May 15

The opinion piece in USA Today is recent but appears to be written with an agenda as they leave out a lot of facts. Their biggest mistake is believing the estimate that less than 10% of Swedes have antibodies. Read this article at the NYT about antibody testing and you will understand things much better.

Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care? (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-antibodies-are-disappearing-should-you-care/ar-BB17cyyc?ocid=msedgntp)

All three articles you cite make no mention of very recent T cell research which shows huge percentages of people (50-80%) having T cell cross immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. The T cell immunity does not go away, they found it viable 17 years after SARS infections. This T cell immunity does not show up in an antibody test. It does show up in charts in places like New York and Sweden, where death and cases went up to a peak and then fell approaching zero, despite the fact that one place had lockdowns and masks and the other did not. Despite the fact that neither place had confirmed cases over 5% of their population. So far I have gotten zero comments that can explain this every time I post it.

85480

Comparing deaths rates and totals in different countries is more complicated than you think. Just because countries are neighbors does not mean they are comparable.

1. travel and tourism: Virus was seeded across the world by travelers. Places with more travelers from certain places got seeded with more virus. Sweden gets more travelers than Norway and Finland

2. How they count covid 19 deaths: Some countries, like USA and Sweden count virtually every death as covid 19 if the person was positive. Many countries only count it if covid 19 is the actual cause of death. Some countries, like Norway, do not count nursing home deaths or deaths outside of hospitals, Since nursing home deaths account for 50% or more of all covid deaths, this is like giving yourself automatic one puts on 9 out of 18 holes. "guys! look at my score" 60-70% of covid 19 deaths in Sweden were from nursing homes.

3. Ethnic groups: 18% of Swedens deaths were Somalis, which represent .69% of Sweden's population. Why? Because they did not follow basic social distancing guidelines and live in large multi generational family groups crammed into small apartments.

The only way to untangle the mess of inconsistent stats and differences between strategies is to look at excess deaths from covid 19. How many extra deaths over the yearly average of deaths from all causes. I will try to find some.

Sweden got hit hard, but when you compare their death rate per million (547) to other countries and US States, they don't even make the top 10

1. New Jersey 1757 deaths per million
2. New York 1665
3. Connecticut 1220
4. Massachusetts 1206
5. Rhode Island 921
6. Belgium 853
7. DC 805
8. Louisiana 733
9. United Kingdom 659
10. Michigan 632

Many countries and US States are seeing a new surge of cases and deaths. Sweden cases and deaths per day are heading towards zero with no surge. They may end up looking good when all is said and done.

The NYT wrote an article called "A cautionary tale" slamming Sweden, but the real cautionary tale was sitting right under their noses.

https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/

[Bucco]

You are trying hard and at least you come up with links but unfortunately they are either old and out of date or just completely wrong. Also, calling people trolls if they have a different view is contrary to the rules here and usually means a weak argument is coming. :icon_wink:

Mayo clinic link: June 6
Business Insider link: May 15

The opinion piece in USA Today is recent but appears to be written with an agenda as they leave out a lot of facts. Their biggest mistake is believing the estimate that less than 10% of Swedes have antibodies. Read this article at the NYT about antibody testing and you will understand things much better.

Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care? (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-antibodies-are-disappearing-should-you-care/ar-BB17cyyc?ocid=msedgntp)

All three articles you cite make no mention of very recent T cell research which shows huge percentages of people (50-80%) having T cell cross immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. The T cell immunity does not go away, they found it viable 17 years after SARS infections. This T cell immunity does not show up in an antibody test. It does show up in charts in places like New York and Sweden, where death and cases went up to a peak and then fell approaching zero, despite the fact that one place had lockdowns and masks and the other did not. Despite the fact that neither place had confirmed cases over 5% of their population. So far I have gotten zero comments that can explain this every time I post it.

85480

Comparing deaths rates and totals in different countries is more complicated than you think. Just because countries are neighbors does not mean they are comparable.

1. travel and tourism: Virus was seeded across the world by travelers. Places with more travelers from certain places got seeded with more virus. Sweden gets more travelers than Norway and Finland

2. How they count covid 19 deaths: Some countries, like USA and Sweden count virtually every death as covid 19 if the person was positive. Many countries only count it if covid 19 is the actual cause of death. Some countries, like Norway, do not count nursing home deaths or deaths outside of hospitals, Since nursing home deaths account for 50% or more of all covid deaths, this is like giving yourself automatic one puts on 9 out of 18 holes. "guys! look at my score" 60-70% of covid 19 deaths in Sweden were from nursing homes.

3. Ethnic groups: 18% of Swedens deaths were Somalis, which represent .69% of Sweden's population. Why? Because they did not follow basic social distancing guidelines and live in large multi generational family groups crammed into small apartments.

The only way to untangle the mess of inconsistent stats and differences between strategies is to look at excess deaths from covid 19. How many extra deaths over the yearly average of deaths from all causes. I will try to find some.

Sweden got hit hard, but when you compare their death rate per million (547) to other countries and US States, they don't even make the top 10

1. New Jersey 1757 deaths per million
2. New York 1665
3. Connecticut 1220
4. Massachusetts 1206
5. Rhode Island 921
6. Belgium 853
7. DC 805
8. Louisiana 733
9. United Kingdom 659
10. Michigan 632

Many countries and US States are seeing a new surge of cases and deaths. Sweden cases and deaths per day are heading towards zero with no surge. They may end up looking good when all is said and done.

The NYT wrote an article called "A cautionary tale" slamming Sweden, but the real cautionary tale was sitting right under their noses.

Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed - Foundation for Economic Education (https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/)


Direct from a Libertarian website .

You have the right....I prefer medical info from medical sites, not those with a P motive.

[Bucco]

This is a serious situation and not one for silly and dangerous games for some motive...


Dark money and PAC'''s coordinated '''reopen''' push are behind doctors''' viral hydroxychloroquine video (https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/dark-money-pac-s-coordinated-reopen-push-are-behind-doctors-n1235100)

[GoodLife]

Direct from a Libertarian website .

You have the right....I prefer medical info from medical sites, not those with a P motive.

LOL It's not a medical info article. The only medical info presented was a chart comparing Sweden to New York deaths. Do you not think this chart is accurate?

85485

The reason that the New York Times would pick Sweden as a "cautionary tale" when their own state's covid 19 death toll per million is the second highest in the entire world is easy to figure out unless you are 100% gullible. New York State put their citizens through a severe lockdown that caused 1000s of bankruptcies, historic unemployment and economic chaos and it didn't do a thing to stop the virus. New York killed more people in their nursing homes than the total deaths in Sweden.

When you're ugly don't look in the mirror.

One of the countries that actually has the numbers to look down their noses at Sweden is Norway. Here's what their Health Minister said recently.

Norway health chief claims coronavirus could have been controlled without lockdown.

Reflecting on the decision to shut Norway’s schools, which began reopening last month, Stoltenberg has concluded that “the scientific backing was not good enough”.

Norway health chief claims coronavirus could have been controlled without lockdown | The Week UK (https://www.theweek.co.uk/107093/norweigian-health-chief-coronavirus-no-lockdown-sweden)

[GoodLife]

duplicate post removed

[Bucco]

Folks need to be very very careful in relying on internet sites with this virus.

"WASHINGTON — Russian intelligence services have been spreading disinformation about the coronavirus pandemic, according to newly declassified intelligence, material that demonstrates how Moscow is continuing to try to influence Americans as the election draws closer."


Russian Intelligence Agencies Push Disinformation on Pandemic - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/us/politics/russia-disinformation-coronavirus.html)

[tvbound]

\\##

[tvbound]

You would think that most people would, by now, be much more cautious and do more research about what they read on the internet, after it's been proved how active many other countries are in trying to mess around and influence us with false information. Apparently not?

[Moderator]

Topic is comparison of 1957 virus to current COVID. Please return to topic or the thread will be closed.

Moderator

[Bucco]

Topic is comparison of 1957 virus to current COVID. Please return to topic or the thread will be closed.

Moderator

Point well taken. To explain, I believe the dependence on medical science in 1957 , and lack of any P interference is a very large piece of the comparison. Much because we had no internet, but we trusted the voice of the professionals and they had no interference at all.

This is serious, and. unlike 1957, we have zero direction.

Outside, and outside is defined as...outside our country, and outside the trusted medical folks, interference is daily and adds to the already tense situation.

I lived through 1957, and other real scares (HS grad in 57), and there was great comfort in the messages we received.

But, I will leave it be, that comparison is important, and reading graphs to support ones P bent is not helpful.

I apologize to the mods if I stepped out of line, but all my posts were intended to highlight what I think is a major difference,
.

[anothersteve]

This is serious, and. unlike 1957, we have zero direction.

.

It may not be the direction you would like to take, or think, but there is direction.

Steve

[Nick B]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

85425
Why do certain people defend the virus so vigorously? Should you feel better if you died from the Regular flu?

[Lottoguy]

I can assure you they did NOT wear masks or social distance back in 1957. One can only imagine how many more deaths we would have right now if we had not done this.

[Lottoguy]

They didn't wear masks or social distance in 1957. Why can't people understand how this has helped us at this point? They were not tougher, the human body is still the same.

[Two Bills]

I can assure you they did NOT wear masks or social distance back in 1957. One can only imagine how many more deaths we would have right now if we had not done this.

Agree on that.
Even the medics in our unit did not wear any protection in '57.
As for social distancing, it was never even mentioned or given a thought.

[Bucco]

Agree on that.
Even the medics in our unit did not wear any protection in '57.
As for social distancing, it was never even mentioned or given a thought.

I believe there was already a vaccine when it reached our country and it was less contagious

[GoodLife]

I can assure you they did NOT wear masks or social distance back in 1957. One can only imagine how many more deaths we would have right now if we had not done this.

Great! Can you explain to us why the covid 19 virus followed an infection and death curve in Sweden that rose to a peak and then plummeted after less than 10% of residents were infected while using no masks or lockdowns and only mild social distancing guidelines? Why does their chart of deaths and cases look the same as many lockdown/mask places?

When you are done explaining that, please expound on why New York, after enacting a strict lockdown and recommending facemasks, proceeded to enjoy the second worst deaths per million rate in the world?

85497

[Byte1]

Great! Can you explain to us why the covid 19 virus followed an infection and death curve in Sweden that rose to a peak and then plummeted after less than 10% of residents were infected while using no masks or lockdowns and only mild social distancing guidelines? Why does their chart of deaths and cases look the same as many lockdown/mask places?

When you are done explaining that, please expound on why New York, after enacting a strict lockdown and recommending facemasks, proceeded to enjoy the second worst deaths per million rate in the world?

85497

You brought the water to the horse, yet it refuses to drink. For some, fact is only valid IF it fits their political narrative.

[GoodLife]

You brought the water to the horse, yet it refuses to drink. For some, fact is only valid IF it fits their political narrative.

It's funny, I have posted that graph a million times asking the same questions and get zero answers. The data is looking straight into their eyes.

[roscoguy]

You are trying hard and at least you come up with links but unfortunately they are either old and out of date or just completely wrong. Also, calling people trolls if they have a different view is contrary to the rules here and usually means a weak argument is coming. :icon_wink:
Ooops, if I’ve violated the rules of ToTV, I apologize. I will be on the lookout, as usual, for those weak arguments, however. Thanks for the warning! :icon_wink:
Mayo clinic link: June 6
Business Insider link: May 15

The opinion piece in USA Today is recent but appears to be written with an agenda as they leave out a lot of facts. Their biggest mistake is believing the estimate that less than 10% of Swedes have antibodies. Read this article at the NYT about antibody testing and you will understand things much better.

Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care? (https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-antibodies-are-disappearing-should-you-care/ar-BB17cyyc?ocid=msedgntp)
Not trying that hard at all. Some of the links may not be quite as up to date as the latest ‘opinion’ you’ve found, but then again, they didn’t necessarily need to update an article without a compelling reason. The mistakes & agendas you allude to are, again, no more than opinion and not the end of this particular story. (You chose not to mention, but may have noticed, the WebMD article was reviewed on 7/15/20.) And, suggestion of latest research aside, none have been proven to be "completely wrong" as yet. Your optimism regarding the USA Today article is unfortunately only that; hopefully T-cells will prevent reinfection, but the science is not exactly definitive. T-cells do not equate immunity to influenza or the common cold, for example. Valid questions remain. There is even some dissension among experts, as is evident in the link you provide above. Did you misunderstand/discount the importance of those?

All three articles you cite make no mention of very recent T cell research which shows huge percentages of people (50-80%) having T cell cross immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. The T cell immunity does not go away, they found it viable 17 years after SARS infections. This T cell immunity does not show up in an antibody test. It does show up in charts in places like New York and Sweden, where death and cases went up to a peak and then fell approaching zero, despite the fact that one place had lockdowns and masks and the other did not. Despite the fact that neither place had confirmed cases over 5% of their population. So far I have gotten zero comments that can explain this every time I post it.

85480

Comparing deaths rates and totals in different countries is more complicated than you think. Just because countries are neighbors does not mean they are comparable.

1. travel and tourism: Virus was seeded across the world by travelers. Places with more travelers from certain places got seeded with more virus. Sweden gets more travelers than Norway and Finland

2. How they count covid 19 deaths: Some countries, like USA and Sweden count virtually every death as covid 19 if the person was positive. Many countries only count it if covid 19 is the actual cause of death. Some countries, like Norway, do not count nursing home deaths or deaths outside of hospitals, Since nursing home deaths account for 50% or more of all covid deaths, this is like giving yourself automatic one puts on 9 out of 18 holes. "guys! look at my score" 60-70% of covid 19 deaths in Sweden were from nursing homes.

3. Ethnic groups: 18% of Swedens deaths were Somalis, which represent .69% of Sweden's population. Why? Because they did not follow basic social distancing guidelines and live in large multi generational family groups crammed into small apartments.

The only way to untangle the mess of inconsistent stats and differences between strategies is to look at excess deaths from covid 19. How many extra deaths over the yearly average of deaths from all causes. I will try to find some.

Sweden got hit hard, but when you compare their death rate per million (547) to other countries and US States, they don't even make the top 10

1. New Jersey 1757 deaths per million
2. New York 1665
3. Connecticut 1220
4. Massachusetts 1206
5. Rhode Island 921
6. Belgium 853
7. DC 805
8. Louisiana 733
9. United Kingdom 659
10. Michigan 632

Many countries and US States are seeing a new surge of cases and deaths. Sweden cases and deaths per day are heading towards zero with no surge. They may end up looking good when all is said and done.

The NYT wrote an article called "A cautionary tale" slamming Sweden, but the real cautionary tale was sitting right under their noses.

Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed - Foundation for Economic Education (https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/)
OK, there may well be differences between Sweden & it’s neighboring Scandinavian countries. But not between Sweden & New Jersey or New York? Come on, let’s get back to apples and apples here. Like I’ve already pointed out, there are many reasons to discount these comparisons, including population density of the major cities as well as ALL the reasons you’ve included above to berate equating Sweden to their nearest neighbors, among others. The Swedes in general are healthier AND happier than Americans (yeah, I went there again), which we all know those affect the severity of the individual’s reaction to Covid-19. Plus the Swedish government did recommend mitigation efforts, some of which are included in your own chart: banning large meetings; working from home; limiting contact and avoiding crowded areas for those over 70 & closing secondary schools and universities. How many Swedes voluntarily complied with these recommendations? It certainly was spotty in the US, for many different reasons.

And really, what exactly IS your answer to my question: SO WHAT? Hammering in the opinion that the measures supported by much of the scientific community at the time of initial spread of Covid-19 in the US was somehow overreach by the government is confusing, given the poor showing we’ve had as a whole. Are you really suggesting a “let the chips fall where they may” (aka: herd immunity) philosophy would have somehow been better for the US, given the severity & high death rates in many areas? In the end, it seems to me that comparing the death rates of Covid-19 to anything else, including the 1957 H2N2 outbreak, without the myriad differences pointed out, is little more than flashy charts, graphs and potentially misleading numbers.
Finally, where exactly was all this latest research at the time that Covid-19 first entered the US? Well, it didn’t exist, did it? If it proves out, it could provide a very interesting hindsight perspective to the wisdom of the measures taken in this country. Some may claim to have foreseen the damage to come, but there is no shartage of self-proclaimed prophets these days...

[GoodLife]

Ooops, if I’ve violated the rules of ToTV, I apologize. I will be on the lookout, as usual, for those weak arguments, however. Thanks for the warning! :icon_wink:

Not trying that hard at all. Some of the links may not be quite as up to date as the latest ‘opinion’ you’ve found, but then again, they didn’t necessarily need to update an article without a compelling reason. The mistakes & agendas you allude to are, again, no more than opinion and not the end of this particular story. (You chose not to mention, but may have noticed, the WebMD article was reviewed on 7/15/20.) And, suggestion of latest research aside, none have been proven to be "completely wrong" as yet. Your optimism regarding the USA Today article is unfortunately only that; hopefully T-cells will prevent reinfection, but the science is not exactly definitive. T-cells do not equate immunity to influenza or the common cold, for example. Valid questions remain. There is even some dissension among experts, as is evident in the link you provide above. Did you misunderstand/discount the importance of those?


OK, there may well be differences between Sweden & it’s neighboring Scandinavian countries. But not between Sweden & New Jersey or New York? Come on, let’s get back to apples and apples here. Like I’ve already pointed out, there are many reasons to discount these comparisons, including population density of the major cities as well as ALL the reasons you’ve included above to berate equating Sweden to their nearest neighbors, among others. The Swedes in general are healthier AND happier than Americans (yeah, I went there again), which we all know those affect the severity of the individual’s reaction to Covid-19. Plus the Swedish government did recommend mitigation efforts, some of which are included in your own chart: banning large meetings; working from home; limiting contact and avoiding crowded areas for those over 70 & closing secondary schools and universities. How many Swedes voluntarily complied with these recommendations? It certainly was spotty in the US, for many different reasons.

And really, what exactly IS your answer to my question: SO WHAT? Hammering in the opinion that the measures supported by much of the scientific community at the time of initial spread of Covid-19 in the US was somehow overreach by the government is confusing, given the poor showing we’ve had as a whole. Are you really suggesting a “let the chips fall where they may” (aka: herd immunity) philosophy would have somehow been better for the US, given the severity & high death rates in many areas? In the end, it seems to me that comparing the death rates of Covid-19 to anything else, including the 1957 H2N2 outbreak, without the myriad differences pointed out, is little more than flashy charts, graphs and potentially misleading numbers.
Finally, where exactly was all this latest research at the time that Covid-19 first entered the US? Well, it didn’t exist, did it? If it proves out, it could provide a very interesting hindsight perspective to the wisdom of the measures taken in this country. Some may claim to have foreseen the damage to come, but there is no shartage of self-proclaimed prophets these days...

The T cell immunity in large percentages of the population has been confirmed by 3-4 studies done in different parts of the world. You don't have to believe or even understand this science, you can see it in data charts of cases and deaths per day in countries all over the world. I use the chart comparing New York and Sweden because it shows the same rise and fall of deaths even though the two places used completely different strategies. Both were hit hard by the virus, and in both places after less than 10% of residents were confirmed positive, the cases and deaths peaked and then started falling. Neither place has seen a surge in new cases or deaths like Florida and many other places. The only conclusion I and many scientists can see is that the virus hit a wall and ran out of targets that it could infect.

The wall is composed of aysmptomatics (CDC estimates 10 times confirmed tests) plus T cell immunes which the studies have estimated at anywhere from 50% to 80% of populations. It appears that Florida has now hit that wall as the new cases appear to have peaked and are going down. I predicted this would happen in another thread at the beginning of July by using a simple formula. I'm waiting a bit more to make sure this is not a false peak but it looks like we have hit "the wall" which is good news. Higher deaths will continue for a few more weeks as they lag new cases.

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As far as hindsight goes, there are many scientists I read who raised alarms about the Imperial College models that were believed and promoted by Fauci and panicked most of the world into extreme lockdowns and economic chaos. Those models turned out to be catastrophically wrong. One epidemiologist named Knut Wittkowski at Rockefeller University was saying way back in March that the lockdowns were not necessary and stupid. He proposed that only the elderly and others with pre existing health problems should stay at home, let younger people continue working, let schools stay open. He was also very prescient about nursing homes and said that they should lock down completely and require all staff to stay at the nursing homes 24/7 so that they could not bring the virus into that vulnerable population. YouTube censored his video because it went against WHO ideas and was considered misinformation.

I think Witkowski's plan would have resulted in fewer deaths overall and a LOT LESS economic chaos. He is not some lone whacko either, some of the most highly cited epidemiologists in the world like John Ioaniddis of Stanford agree with him and were warning against drastic lockdowns in March. Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt also at Stanford is where I first got the idea that herd immunity threshold could be as low as 20-30%. These are not "internet prophets" and are some of the most eminent and cited scientists in the world.

In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)