Mortality Rate of the Virus

[coffeebean]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

[Two Bills]

Someone will be along shorrly to refute that method of collating, if it does not fit with the agenda!!:icon_wink:

[graciegirl]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

I don't know why so many people want to minimize the facts. I don't know why so many people think that Covid-19 is a hoax. I see it on both sides of the aisle and everywhere. It is foolish if you are older to have a driveway party during this time.

I saw in the news last night that thousands of people had rented a huge Beverly Hills Mansion to have a party. One dead, four others injured in Los Angeles mansion party shooting (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-dead-four-others-injured-in-los-angeles-mansion-party-shooting/ar-BB17z5eZ?ocid=msedgdhp)

[GoodLife]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million)

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)

[Bay Kid]

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Cases have everything to do with the mortality rate and here is why. In countries where there is less testing, fewer cases are discovered. Because of this, people are dying of Covid and those deaths are not recognized as Covid deaths because the people have never been tested so they are not considered a Covid death.

Here we have people that are dying of underlying conditions that have been exacerbated by Covid. In some countries if someone who has not been tested and found positive dies of a heart attack, it is listed as a heart attack death even though it may have been a Covid related death.

We also are counting the death of anyone who has Covid as a Covid death regardless of the cause of death. There have been people with Covid killed in car accidents that are listed as Covid deaths. I doubt that any other country is doing that.

Some countries such as Turkey and India, by the way, claim that they have fewer people dying because they are treating Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc.

I know that testing has shown these meds to have no effect, but some doctors in the US and other countries claim to have has success with them.

I honestly don't know what to think.

[billethkid]

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.

Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....

[DeanFL]

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.
Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....


Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....


or....it DOES NOT fit the Media's narrative...
.
.
.

[coffeebean]

You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million)

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)

According to the CDC Measures of Mortality, what you are commenting about is the "Death-to-case ratio". That involves "guestimating" how many asymptomatics are out there. Other countries do not test as much as the US, so using those stats is not really relevant.

Deaths per capita is a better marker for the mortality rate of this virus. That is comparing apples to apples with other countries.

[Stu from NYC]

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.

So very true

[GoodLife]

According to the CDC Measures of Mortality, what you are commenting about is the "Death-to-case ratio". That involves "guestimating" how many asymptomatics are out there. Other countries do not test as much as the US, so using those stats is not really relevant.

Deaths per capita is a better marker for the mortality rate of this virus. That is comparing apples to apples with other countries.

Sorry but no. Deaths per capita is a better way to compare the impact of the virus on various countries. The mortality rate of this virus, or IFR is always calculated by deaths divided by cases. Ask any epidemiologist, including the CDC which calculates this rate on the link I provided above.

Yes the amount of testing per capita affects the IFR, if you test at a lower rate your IFR will be higher, if you test at a higher rate your IFR will be lower.

The death per capita rate also has problems and is not always apples to apples. USA and some countries count any death where deceased tested positive for virus as a covid 19 death, even if they died in a traffic accident or were struck with lightning. Even with no test, if Doctor suspects death due to covid 19, death is coded as covid 19. Some countries only count deaths FROM covid, not WITH covid. Some countries do not include covid deaths from nursing homes, they only count deaths that occur in hospitals and not at homes.

The best way to count actual covid deaths is by measuring excess deaths in a given country. Most countries know their average deaths per year from all causes, so a spike in deaths over that average can be assumed in 2020 to be from covid 19.

Read this article with some charts to understand excess deaths better. As you will see, there are many countries doing much worse per capita than USA

Covid-19 data - Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | Graphic detail | The Economist (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries)

I realize now that you posted this thread in response to something you know who said. He was wrong which ever death rate you look at, but I don't pay attention to what any politicians say about this virus, USA does not have the best mortality rate per capita or IFR, but we are definitely not the worst either. I look at the science and numbers only.

[donfey]

I don't know why so many people want to minimize the facts. I don't know why so many people think that Covid-19 is a hoax. I see it on both sides of the aisle and everywhere. It is foolish if you are older to have a driveway party during this time.

I saw in the news last night that thousands of people had rented a huge Beverly Hills Mansion to have a party. One dead, four others injured in Los Angeles mansion party shooting (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-dead-four-others-injured-in-los-angeles-mansion-party-shooting/ar-BB17z5eZ?ocid=msedgdhp)


To which "facts" do you refer? Of course, Covid-19 is not a hoax. It's a serious epidemic and needs to be taken seriously. Reasonable people should exercise responsible and reasonable care to reduce the risk off contracting and/or spreading the virus.

That said, what we've seen in America over the last five months has been neither reasonable nor responsible. As the "facts" continue to change, the shotgun approach(s) proffered by Fauci, and often implemented as law, have been draconian. Worse, dissenting medical opinions, and that's exactly what they are, from both "sides," have been ridiculed and ignored, pretty much like anyone who disagrees with the religion of global warming.

So -
Should thinking, responsible people exercise discression when engaging with others, especially strangers? Of course we should.

Should businesses, open to the public but not "deemed essential" (by whom?) be forces out of business, and their employees lose their jobs? I think not.

Should we surrender our liberty while we "wait for a vaccine?" Not me.

[Velvet]

You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million)

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)

But... but... in 2018 Death rate from Covid was 0. Why not compare it to death rates in WW1 and WW2? Or any other causes of death.

[Bucco]

But... but... in 2018 Death rate from Covid was 0. Why not compare it to death rates in WW1 and WW2? Or any other causes of death.

We already compare the Covid tests to the period before it even existed as a step forward....why not ?

[Velvet]

What I am trying to say is that it doesn’t matter to me what the Covid death rate is compared to any other death rate. It is in ADDITION to other death rates unless someone can show how for example, lung cancer death rates have plunged since people with lung cancer are now dying of Covid instead.

[roscoguy]

Cases have everything to do with the mortality rate and here is why. In countries where there is less testing, fewer cases are discovered. Because of this, people are dying of Covid and those deaths are not recognized as Covid deaths because the people have never been tested so they are not considered a Covid death.

Here we have people that are dying of underlying conditions that have been exacerbated by Covid. In some countries if someone who has not been tested and found positive dies of a heart attack, it is listed as a heart attack death even though it may have been a Covid related death.
Not everybody that dies in the US have been tested for Covid either. The number of related deaths may well be underestimated in every country.

We also are counting the death of anyone who has Covid as a Covid death regardless of the cause of death. There have been people with Covid killed in car accidents that are listed as Covid deaths. I doubt that any other country is doing that.
This is absolutely false. It goes directly against the CDC guidelines for certifying Covid deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
This oft-repeated claim has also been debunked here: Are CDC Guidelines for Reporting COVID-19 Deaths Artificially Inflating Numbers? (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-guidelines-covid19/)

[roscoguy]

Maybe because they do not pay as well sooooooo.....

Oh, are we really doing this again??? Show us where you got the information that Covid deaths are paying anything. The conspiracy theory that just won't go away... :ohdear:

[HoosierPa]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.


Wow. A lot of information here but nothing I saw relating to COVID-19. Maybe it was buried somewhere in all the charts.

[oneclickplus]

What I am trying to say is that it doesn’t matter to me what the Covid death rate is compared to any other death rate. It is in ADDITION to other death rates unless someone can show how for example, lung cancer death rates have plunged since people with lung cancer are now dying of Covid instead.

What are you talking about? It is NOT entirely in addition to other deaths. COVID-19–associated mortality is higher in persons with underlying chronic health conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. A portion of this population with underlying chronic health conditions would have died even without being exposed to COVID-19.

There is a concept called "excess mortality"; that is, the additional deaths over and above the expected deaths. Not all COVID-19 deaths are "over and above" expected mortality. Therefore they do not ALL add to the number of deaths.

www [dot] cdc [dot] gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

[allus70]

So those with terminal cancer, severe cardiovascular disease etc.etc. are now surviving longer because of the pandemic?

[coffeebean]

Wow. A lot of information here but nothing I saw relating to COVID-19. Maybe it was buried somewhere in all the charts.

The linked information is not specific to Covid-19. I guess I should have titled the thread, "Mortality Rate of Illnesses". The information is how mortality rate is determined for all diseases.

[J1ceasar]

And of course your heart stops when you die so maybe that's really the cause of death? This is all foolish to argue percentages. The fact of the matter is if you get Colvin is one more thing that can cause you to die and that of all the people I get clothing anywhere from 20 to 60 per 1000 have died . Compare that 2 deaths from cancer or heart attacks where there is several million per year in the u.s. dying. And don't forget 50000 people died I'm getting in their car every year

[Russp]

Any body can make the numbers work for their scenario. Ask any real stats people

[graciegirl]

Most of us want the facts. Period.

Some of us want to make up conspiracy theories.

Some of us like to have the title of hall monitor.

I think anyone who doesn't take Covid-19 seriously and is old enough to live here is STUPID.

One of my friends wearing a mask was heckled by someone here and called "sheep".

She was a surgical nurse for thirty years.

Because most people live and survive the virus, that fact, should not minimize the real danger to the elderly who if they contract the disease have a much higher chance of dying of it. Usually choking to death alone with "concrete lungs".

We are still here. Hello. Show me your hands if you want to die.

No thank you.

[letsgossip]

If two people live in the same home and one of them dies of Covid, that's 50% mortality rate, that's the fact, to heck with the rest of the world when it's your family.

[villageuser]

Thanks to covid most all other causes of death are way down. Good news.

That is funny, but not true. Because of the process we have, we could have influenza/pneumonia deaths being attributed to Covid, but we can also have Covid-19 deaths being listed as influenza/pneumonia especially if the person never got a test. Which could be very likely considering how hard it still is for people to get a test. Also, where deaths for influenza and pneumonia have been much higher than the average for past years, especially at the beginning of the pandemic. The CDC did a very in-depth and lengthy report on all this which basically comes down to it is hard to know exactly what deaths are from covid-19, influenza, pneumonia, or something else. You may also be interested in:

Fact check: Confusion about CDC's COVID-19 death count (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/28/fact-check-confusion-cdcs-covid-19-death-count/3254404001/)

[SFSkol]

...One of my friends wearing a mask was heckled by someone here and called "sheep". ...




I'd rather be a Sheep than a Rack of Lamb.

[Swoop]

Not everybody that dies in the US have been tested for Covid either. The number of related deaths may well be underestimated in every country.


This is absolutely false. It goes directly against the CDC guidelines for certifying Covid deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
This oft-repeated claim has also been debunked here: Are CDC Guidelines for Reporting COVID-19 Deaths Artificially Inflating Numbers? (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-guidelines-covid19/)

Really? Explain this:
Dr. Ngozi Ezike | How COVID Deaths are Classified - YouTube (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw9Ci2PZKZg)

[JoelJohnson]

A better indication is outcomes. There are only two outcomes recovered and death. Add them together, you get Total outcomes, divide by number of deaths, you get a very real death rate.

[Fisherman]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

It amazes me that these forums have just become a place for people to “one up on each other “ like they are the expert and the only one right.
The truth of the matter, which ever way you, our government or other country chooses to calculate death ratios, they will always be inaccurate AND thousands of people have died. And many from COVID. Wouldn’t it be nice if we, as retirees, use this forum with respect for those that died and helpful information to keep each other safe in our community? We are so fortunate to have been sparred from a huge outbreak here. Enjoy each day, manage your own risk anyway you choose, but with regards for those around you and focus on getting us all to a better place.

[davem4616]

Most of us want the facts. Period.

Some of us want to make up conspiracy theories.

Some of us like to have the title of hall monitor.

I think anyone who doesn't take Covid-19 seriously and is old enough to live here is STUPID.

One of my friends wearing a mask was heckled by someone here and called "sheep".

She was a surgical nurse for thirty years.

Because most people live and survive the virus, that fact, should not minimize the real danger to the elderly who if they contract the disease have a much higher chance of dying of it. Usually choking to death alone with "concrete lungs".

We are still here. Hello. Show me your hands if you want to die.

No thank you.




All it takes is a little common sense and you dramatically decrease your chances of getting covid-19

I skip over all these 'facts and charts' that are continually being posted on TOTV regarding covid-19....I got the message awhile back, it's real and it's dangerous to us older folks

The only 'fact' and statistic that matters to me is whether my wife and I remain safe.

Guess what...we have control over that, by controlling our behavior and our actions

Everyone has 'free will'....you get to choose how you play the game of life

I'm just not interested in gambling when the stakes are this high

[MandoMan]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

Thanks for sharing. It’s pretty complicated, isn’t it? If we are measuring how many people out of 100,000 (Based on the entire population) have DIED of the virus, that’s useful, but if we only count those for were tested and found to be positive instead of those who have the symptoms but the test results didn’t come back in time or weren’t tested at all, we will have different numbers. If we exclude those who had pre-existing conditions but might have lived several more years, we are also inaccurate. If we try to measure how many people who have been diagnosed by testing actually die, then an area where almost everyone is tested, so lots of minor cases are caught, will have a very different result from one where very few tests are available, so only people with clear symptoms are tested to be certain. That wouldn’t be a case of trying to cheat on the statistics, but simply availability and the time it takes to get answers. Still, it’s infuriating to have to wait ten or twelve days for an answer, isn’t it?

The argument that the reason more people are being diagnosed is simply because more people are being tested, is partly right, in that if we didn’t test anyone and insisted that only those who tested positive could be counted, then we would officially have no new cases. But that’s a perfect example of the ostrich with its head in the sand approach. The counter-argument is clear: if we test more people and they are found positive, it is only because they ARE positive. We can’t really know from that alone if the frequency or ease of contracting the virus is increasing. We know only that more cases are being discovered because we are testing more. Given that we now know that many people who have the virus have no symptoms, it may be that it is no easier to catch now than a few months ago. We just know that it is continuing to spread. The numbers are rising, quite rapidly in some areas. To deny that there are a lot more cases but that instead there is just more testing ignores the fact that whichever is the case, a lot of people have this.

One thing about testing is that as we discover more cases and do the math to find the percentage of positive people who are hospitalized or who die, the mortality rate is dropping. Some sources think the mortality rate of the bubonic plague was around 40% of those who caught it, and the mortality rate of those with the pneumonic version (which is the main way people are catching Covid-19) was around 95%. By contrast, what are the current figures in this country for those who have it who die of it? One in twenty? (I’m really not sure of the figures right now.) Imagine if 40% of those who got it died! Would we be arguing over the need for masks?

[Girlcopper]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.
Statistics are all over the place everyday. Bottom line. Protect yourself. Protect others around you by wearing a mask and washing hands. I dont vare about statistics. I dont care if we are the highest rated for the virus or the lowest. Its here and will be for a long while. Exercise due diligence and stay healthy!

[donfey]

Cases have everything to do with the mortality rate and here is why. In countries where there is less testing, fewer cases are discovered. Because of this, people are dying of Covid and those deaths are not recognized as Covid deaths because the people have never been tested so they are not considered a Covid death.

Here we have people that are dying of underlying conditions that have been exacerbated by Covid. In some countries if someone who has not been tested and found positive dies of a heart attack, it is listed as a heart attack death even though it may have been a Covid related death.

We also are counting the death of anyone who has Covid as a Covid death regardless of the cause of death. There have been people with Covid killed in car accidents that are listed as Covid deaths. I doubt that any other country is doing that.

Some countries such as Turkey and India, by the way, claim that they have fewer people dying because they are treating Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc.

I know that testing has shown these meds to have no effect, but some doctors in the US and other countries claim to have has success with them.

I honestly don't know what to think.

As long as there's a political component and, sadly, there always is, the numbers will be manipulated to savor the views of the "reporter." One thing I noticed yesterday is that they reported "death WITH Covid" as opposed to death CAUSED BY Covid. It's still true that figures lie, and liars figure.

[UseYourBrain]

You are taking CDC guidelines. It is the states that are telling people how to fill out death certificates. I know people directly involved in Florida and they are counting all deaths WITH Covid. Not FROM Covid.

[Linda Taranto]

Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

[Luc582]

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3 (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html)

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.


Here is a one-page report, which provides accurate data.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=401e10ae-8d93-4576-bf9e-dad298f0e060

[achan]

Thanks for the explanation!

[oldtimes]

Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

We have a doctor friend who told us this also. There are a lot of cases but most people who get it do not die.

[Velvet]

What are you talking about? It is NOT entirely in addition to other deaths. COVID-19–associated mortality is higher in persons with underlying chronic health conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. A portion of this population with underlying chronic health conditions would have died even without being exposed to COVID-19.

There is a concept called "excess mortality"; that is, the additional deaths over and above the expected deaths. Not all COVID-19 deaths are "over and above" expected mortality. Therefore they do not ALL add to the number of deaths.

www [dot] cdc [dot] gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

I agree, but when would have they died? We are all going to die sometime, so do we compare that too?

I like the term “excess mortality” that would be a very relevant number with regards to Covid deaths for me.

[graciegirl]

Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

I wonder what their job was in the hospital or if this is just a continuation of the game of telephone.

On the first of July there were 17 people who had died from Covid-19 listed in Sumter County, Florida. It has very, very, slowly climbed to that number and held at 17 for awhile.

Today there were two added and we now stand at 40. In between we had a lot of folks came to visit folks here. We had some Fourth of July parties and out in the world people were rubbing elbows marching for BLM. A few driveway parties were held here in The Villages.

I am sure that there are some errors in the number of cases reported, but I think it is very likely that the cases of people who died from the virus may be underreported.

I am not terrified. I am not frightened. But I am not going to gather in a group for church or a party. Unless and until there is a damn satisfactory way to stop this damn bug. I am anxious for a vaccine or any medicine that will prevent or curtail the terrible inflammation and damage to the lungs and to the heart and to the circulatory system that it inflicts. I am tired of the pseudo-scientists jacking me around and telling me their implausible fairy stories. A bug is a bug. It doesn't vote. Some are damned nasty. I remember polio. When a small organism is gonna harm you bad, give it a wide berth.

[jimjamuser]

You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million)

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)
The mortality rate used internationally to compare countries for the good or bad medical practices, currently lists the US about 15 away from the MOST OR WORSE mortality rate. We are somewhat better than Brazil, but worse than Canada.
The mortality rate normally used is total deaths divided by total cases. As of today that would be 161,941deaths divided by 4,992,027 cases = 3.2%
If you were to make some assumptions and project no vaccine for 2 years and many anti-vaccers after that. Then included not ONLY those that would die, but ALSO added those who almost died with torturous pain, plus many who will have lifelong lingering problems. Then give you about 10% of all cases die or have BIG problems.
Note : it is NOT black or white, die or live. there is a gray unknown area of torture. That is why overall it is VERY bad to line up your beliefs with the so called "DOWNPLAYERS".

[jimjamuser]

A better indication is outcomes. There are only two outcomes recovered and death. Add them together, you get Total outcomes, divide by number of deaths, you get a very real death rate.
I am sorry but it is MORE than die or live. There are lingering after affects that have re-hospitalized some people. And some who later died. Some go home with a trach, a hose in your throat. Later they get blood clots.

[jimjamuser]

With respect to post # 30, we in TV land have NOT been spared yet. To early to say that. We are in maybe the 2nd inning of this Plague.

[jimjamuser]

Thanks for sharing. It’s pretty complicated, isn’t it? If we are measuring how many people out of 100,000 (Based on the entire population) have DIED of the virus, that’s useful, but if we only count those for were tested and found to be positive instead of those who have the symptoms but the test results didn’t come back in time or weren’t tested at all, we will have different numbers. If we exclude those who had pre-existing conditions but might have lived several more years, we are also inaccurate. If we try to measure how many people who have been diagnosed by testing actually die, then an area where almost everyone is tested, so lots of minor cases are caught, will have a very different result from one where very few tests are available, so only people with clear symptoms are tested to be certain. That wouldn’t be a case of trying to cheat on the statistics, but simply availability and the time it takes to get answers. Still, it’s infuriating to have to wait ten or twelve days for an answer, isn’t it?

The argument that the reason more people are being diagnosed is simply because more people are being tested, is partly right, in that if we didn’t test anyone and insisted that only those who tested positive could be counted, then we would officially have no new cases. But that’s a perfect example of the ostrich with its head in the sand approach. The counter-argument is clear: if we test more people and they are found positive, it is only because they ARE positive. We can’t really know from that alone if the frequency or ease of contracting the virus is increasing. We know only that more cases are being discovered because we are testing more. Given that we now know that many people who have the virus have no symptoms, it may be that it is no easier to catch now than a few months ago. We just know that it is continuing to spread. The numbers are rising, quite rapidly in some areas. To deny that there are a lot more cases but that instead there is just more testing ignores the fact that whichever is the case, a lot of people have this.

One thing about testing is that as we discover more cases and do the math to find the percentage of positive people who are hospitalized or who die, the mortality rate is dropping. Some sources think the mortality rate of the bubonic plague was around 40% of those who caught it, and the mortality rate of those with the pneumonic version (which is the main way people are catching Covid-19) was around 95%. By contrast, what are the current figures in this country for those who have it who die of it? One in twenty? (I’m really not sure of the figures right now.) Imagine if 40% of those who got it died! Would we be arguing over the need for masks?
Good post. informative. Great conclusion!

[Velvet]

I’m very concerned about bypassing CDC ... the more transparency the more control we have over this virus. Why would anyone not want to have as much information as possible? Ignorance can kill. Now I’m starting to feel uneasy about actual case counts in Florida.

[GoodLife]

The mortality rate normally used is total deaths divided by total cases. As of today that would be 161,941deaths divided by 4,992,027 cases = 3.2%

3.2% mortality rate is nonsense. Every Doctor and scientists in the world knows that there is a huge amount of asymptomatic cases out there that are never tested BECAUSE THEY DO NOT GET SICK. You have to assume a number of asymptomatics in order to calculate the true mortality or fatality rate of the disease.

The CDC currently states that the current Infection Mortality rate for USA is 0.65% and that is estimating asymptomatics as only 40% which many scientists think is low.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)

Scroll down to Table 1. This is what our top epidemiologists say. Don't be a science denialist.

[Alana33]

What would you rather do?
1. Wear a mask to protect yourself, family, friends, loved ones and others from catching and continue the spreading of a highly contagious virus?

2. Not take recommended precautions driven by science, infect your loved ones, spread disease, be hospitalized, breathe through a ventilator and incur massive hospital bills by not wearing a mask, etc.?

[jimjamuser]

3.2% mortality rate is nonsense. Every Doctor and scientists in the world knows that there is a huge amount of asymptomatic cases out there that are never tested BECAUSE THEY DO NOT GET SICK. You have to assume a number of asymptomatics in order to calculate the true mortality or fatality rate of the disease.

The CDC currently states that the current Infection Mortality rate for USA is 0.65% and that is estimating asymptomatics as only 40% which many scientists think is low.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)

Scroll down to Table 1. This is what our top epidemiologists say. Don't be a science denialist.
Let's try the KISS principle. And talk about motivation, the WHY? I understand WHY I am concerned about the risks of CV. I don't understand the WHY behind downplaying those same risks? If I am correct, I have a good chance of saving my life and others by "modeling" mask wearing. If I am wrong, no big deal. The opposite choice is a big deal - many die and are tortured as they die and later in life. To me, that is a big risk and a bad risk calculation. So, I MUST ask WHY downplay??????

[roscoguy]

Really? Explain this:
Dr. Ngozi Ezike | How COVID Deaths are Classified - YouTube (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw9Ci2PZKZg)

I don't feel any need to explain every youtube video. Please read the CDC's guidelines in the PDF I linked to.

[GoodLife]

Let's try the KISS principle. And talk about motivation, the WHY? I understand WHY I am concerned about the risks of CV. I don't understand the WHY behind downplaying those same risks? If I am correct, I have a good chance of saving my life and others by "modeling" mask wearing. If I am wrong, no big deal. The opposite choice is a big deal - many die and are tortured as they die and later in life. To me, that is a big risk and a bad risk calculation. So, I MUST ask WHY downplay??????

So you're saying the CDC is downplaying the risks and mortality rate? Because I am using their numbers. :1rotfl:

Here is their contact info, better let them know they are "downplayers" and doing it wrong.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30329
800-CDC-INFO | (800-232-4636) | TTY: (888) 232-6348

[GoodLife]

Now, I know a woman whose ex-husband's new girlfriend once dated the third cousin of a guy named Lenny who overheard a couple of surgeons who said...

Sorry, but this is really no more than another rumor or misunderstanding.

The CDC website has 3,721 death certificates in the COVID count which also list "intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events"

85652

Here are a couple dubious covid 19 deaths uncovered in Florida

This woman is an example of a death that appears to be “with” COVID: The woman “suffered an unwitnessed fall on July 8… imaging studies showed subarachnoid hemorrhage and subdural hematoma… While in the hospital, [She] underwent routine testing for COVID-19 and was found to be positive on the same day, although she was asymptomatic… [She] remained asymptomatic and required no breathing treatments, nor did she display any respiratory distress… [She] was transferred into a COVID-19 bed at [hospice] on July 10… remained at the center until her death on July 12. Her medical history included anemia, dementia, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hypothyroid, and multiple falls.”

Another case at Shands, a 35-year-old male, was listed as a Dade County death from COVID-19: “[The decedent] was working on the roof of a home in Middleburg on 5/28. It started to rain and the decedent and his coworkers stopped working. Bystanders in the neighborhood and the workers on the roof observed a flash of lighting and heard a loud explosion, and several workers were thrown off of the roof. Immediately following the lighting strike, a worker on the roof observed the decedent collapse, fall off of the roof, and land facedown on grass. The decedent’s muscles were reported to be contracted and shaking, and caused the decedent’s body to roll over onto his backside. It was also reported by the workers that the decedent’s eyeballs were rolled back into his skull. Bystanders in the neighborhood observed the decedent on the ground, called 911, and started CPR until EMS arrived on scene. Following the lightning strike, the workers observed a large hole on the roof that appeared burnt. According to medical records, the decedent was transported via EMS to Orange Park Medical Center and was found to have spinal fractures with spinal cord transection, a skull base fracture, and pulmonary contusions. He was transferred on the same day to UF Health Shands Hospital for further management and was admitted to the surgical intensive care unit on mechanical ventilation. He tested positive for the COVID-19 virus on 5/29 and was transferred to the medical intensive care unit. In addition to acute hypoxic respiratory failure and neurogenic shock, he was found to have a subarachnoid hemorrhage, bilateral pulmonary contusions, C3 & C7 spinous process fractures, complete T4 spinal cord transection, a skull base fracture. Trauma surgery, neurosurgery, and neurocritical care continued to follow the decedent and the decedent’s condition did not improve. Examinations were consistent with severe hypoxic brain injury and his prognosis was poor. The decedent’s family elected to transition to full comfort measures on 6/9 and he was pronounced dead on 6/9.”

Local COVID-19 death certificates all show multiple co-morbidities - Alachua Chronicle (https://alachuachronicle.com/local-covid-19-death-certificates-all-show-multiple-co-morbidities/)

So, not all rumors as it turns out.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Shouldn't population density also be a factor in the number of cases? It seems to me that in places where people are packed together that there would be more cases.

It seems that total population, population density, health care quality and a number of other factors need to me considered when developing any kind of opinion about a pandemic.

I also have to wonder that if, as some people believe, that this was a deliberate attack by China on the US, that China would have planted seeds at different times in several different areas of the US.

[roscoguy]

The CDC website has 3,721 death certificates in the COVID count which also list "intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events"

85652

Here are a couple dubious covid 19 deaths uncovered in Florida

...

...

So, not all rumors as it turns out.

There is no doubt in my mind that there are errors and some outright fraud in reporting hospitalizations or even possibly deaths related to COVID-19. There are also cases that are correctly reported as death with COVID-19, as opposed to from COVID-19 as in one of the cases you cite. The posts I responded to said "I know people directly involved in Florida and they are counting all deaths WITH Covid" & "All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital." The first statement is actually OK, as long as they don't include these with the 'from COVID' results. The second is just extremely unlikely: ALL deaths are recorded as from COVID-19? I can't even imagine what hospital would attempt that level of fraud or for what purpose. And, both of these posts are of the 'I know someone who told me' variety & can't be accepted as fact without more info. That was the basis of my "rumor" comment, not each and every individual case.

[canyonblue]

I also have to wonder that if, as some people believe, that this was a deliberate attack by China on the US, that China would have planted seeds at different times in several different areas of the US.

That's the real question isn't it: why? The how and the who is just scenery for the public. Bat virus, Wet Market, Trump, WHO, keeps 'em guessing like some kind of parlor game, prevents 'em from asking the most important question: why? Why was there a Pandemic? Who benefited? Who has the power to cover it up? Who?