Apartments...Why??

[Villages Kahuna]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.

[Topspinmo]

IMO when they sold to districts that should of sealed residential building. IMO the problem is the commercial properties are for most part setting empty. Now what left? turn property into multilevel apartments where it’s more profitable to build up than out and more stable income.

IMO Bottom line It won’t become house resale problem for 10 years out when apartments flood the market. I agree majority that will be moving into apartments probably will use few outside apartment area amenities due to fact they are one step from assisted living or nursing home. IMO as long as there balance in just enough apartments not flood of them and of course age restrictions strictly enforced.

[Stu from NYC]

Very interesting

[Ladygolfer93]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.

There is nothing left to say but the old saying, you hit the nail RIGHT ON THE HEAD ! The valuation of publicly traded shares, how those stats are determined, etc. etc. Many have wondered for 15, even 20 years when that would happen, you could "see" it coming, though it has a huge downside, the residents "could" gain the same rights as other citizens in "normal" communities, but it would also mean those elements that, as you so clearly explained, create the kinds of income streams stock holders expect. Koo Doo's for "seeing" what the constant stream of "unusual" events, not in the interest of making live more comfortable for the retiree residents, or a better quality community, only a continued march toward those elements many came to escape.

[John41]

Considering the developers past behavior I don’t think I ever trusted them. Good, affordable houses yes. Ethics no. Zoning will constrain how many apartments can be built in an already densely built community. And I believe the new commissioners in Sumter will act on behalf of the residents. Part of the vacancy issue is the outrageous rents the developer charges along with sticking his nose into merchants financial statements.
But I think the commercial manager says they have a 90 percent occupancy rate anyway. You are correct that if they want to cash out the business value with be the present value of the business cash flow. With interest rates so low it makes the present value larger so maybe that is why the rush to dump low yielding assets. On the other hand with all the land in Southern Oaks they could make money from just home building to live a comfortable retirement for many years.

[Jim 9922]

You provide a good hypothesis as to the "why" behind the several significant different development trends appearing in the last couple of years. As noted, the developer family has strengthened its future repeating income streams.
I personally would be saddened if the developer leaves us to be saddled with a public corporation which in turn is saddled with significant leveraged debt and only interested in maximizing future short-term cash flows and quick payback to shareowners. Not only that, but a lot of the rights governing our community which we have trusted to the developer would be transferred to the succeeding corporation.

[TNGary]

Kahuna,
Very insightful perspective. A bit fuzzy to me at first, but after reading your comments it all appears very logical. A true game changer for TV. We have a lot of talented and well versed folks on this site. To support Kahuna's position, many individual owned entities once run by the Initial owner, next are run by the family, then do go public and are run by accounts to maximize short term gains. I hope your wrong Kahuna but I am afraid you nailed it. Wow

[tophcfa]

Kahuna,

You are indeed very forward thinking and I agree that you are on to something. There is no way the developers (or should I say their consultants/advisors) would have changed the families business model so abruptly without a valid reason. Why worry about pi$$ing off lots of existing homeowners, who bought into the dream, when their new vision is setting up an exit strategy. I have been racking my brain trying to think of why such an about face on a successful business model would take place in such a short time period. I think I am getting old, have been retired too long, and am loosing my edge, I should have come to the same conclusion as you. As a fellow retired investment banker, thanks for your intuitive perspective (and as an investment banker, I am sure you know what the CFA in tophcfa stands for). Here is hoping that whatever happens, the new business model does not trash what we bought into during the remaining active years of our lifetime. Stay tuned!

[jamorela]

Your perspective makes sense to me.

[GOLFER54]

What you concluded makes absolute sense to me. As a resident here for over 15 years, the changes I saw were usually a benefit for those living here. However in the last couple of years, it seems greed is their number one priority and those folks that have purchased their homes by these on going Constructions of apartments are no doubt upset, as they are losing the value of their investments and privacy.

[Annie66]

I just hope your musing does not give the developer a thought they didn't have before your post.

[Bob in Fishers]

As long as we live in a free enterprise system property owners can buy sell develop as they see fit

[FromNY]

Thank you, very insightful.
The possibility also is that those who will in the future retire to TV are a completely different demographic group. Less Veterans, less traditional family units.Even less incomes. Look around Florida. There are communities with apartments and or condos in the middle of town squares. Places like Clermont, Melbourne Beach. Naples. Maybe the developers have more insight then we think. Actually would welcome Condos or Townhouses no yard work. Change happens and we can work to be part of it. Heck in 17 years all of a sudden every street corner has an Assisted living , memory care, nursing facility. Now that is preparing for all of us getting very needy. Sure the singal family home will always be the dream,will the economy support that? My opinion is to stay educated to the changes. Find what works for you. Or start the process of where do I want to age out?

[Stu from NYC]

I just hope your musing does not give the developer a thought they didn't have before your post.

The developer seems to be several steps ahead of us all the time.

If this is their direction it has been planned for some time. They must be shaking their head about the Sumter commission election and how it affects their plans.

[UseYourBrain]

He commercial properties are empty because they charge too much rent. Just lower the rents and have them filled out and they would be making more money through volume

[crash]

As long as we live in a free enterprise system property owners can buy sell develop as they see fit

Which is fine except they seem to be able to change the zoning to whatever they want. It is this ability that scares me. How many apartments could they build on the polo field. The other thing is that we need to stop letting them share amenities and the building of apartments would stop.

[joeharing]

Time for storage facilities to be erected, the most income producing per square foot enclosures on the planet. Oh yes, they can be several stories high. UP up and away !!!!

[maryl]

I agree and I am so glad I am out of there I seen this happening now the Villages is no longer the place to live
And the siblings that are ruining it I wish them bad luck for destroying there parents dream

[dewilson58]

. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.
.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. .
.


What were your assumptions in order for the family to cash out with a billion each?? 10% return on apartments, 90% occupancy, five times earnings, etc. Jus wondering. My quick and dirty indicates it would be over 100,000 apartments. They have less than 1,000 apartments now. I don't think the sky is falling in my lifetime.


Please share...............we bean-counters need facts.

[Madelaine Amee]

He commercial properties are empty because they charge too much rent. Just lower the rents and have them filled out and they would be making more money through volume

This I can comment upon ........ Southern Trace used to have a small, very good, local jeweler. Their rent was increased causing them to look for another property. The store is still empty. A great little family business has relocated out of TV.

[Bill1701]

I'm sure the developer has researched all this and knows what they are doing. If there wasn't a demand for apartments, they wouldn't build them. Many older people here, and that means the Spanish Springs area, can no longer keep up their homes and don't want to move away. An apartment meets their needs.

[Rsenholzi]

Interesting thoughts! Thanks for sharing them

[justjim]

OP, you have made some good business points. However, for residents to believe that building a few apartments inside the bubble will somehow “destroy” The,Villages as we know it is a stretch in my opinion. Simply put, the Developer saw a need for apartments and it was a good business decision to build them. Building the Lofts was a good decision as it brings more possible business to Brownwood. I am told there is a waiting list for the apartments. Crossing Rt 44 also is an enhancement for the Developers money outlay for their Brownwood investment. I don’t see what is happening in Southern Oaks area (south of 44) as making much or any traffic concerns for the northern half of The Villages. As far as Katie Belles and Hacienda Country Club being turned into apartments, time will tell on these projects. In short, when there is no longer a demand for upscale apartments within the bubble, they will cease to be built. I don’t see any of these recent “business decisions“ affecting my lifestyle here in The Villages. “You can’t unring the bell.” Anonymous.

[JohnN]

Why? Simple ......... $$$$$$$$

[msimon2310]

Not sure I agree on BBC two fronts.

First: The space occupied by the original club is not practical for traditional homes as they could only fit a few. An apartment complex on the other hand will allow many more living spaces especially one 3 floors or more. I think this is more of a density issue and how to maximize the return on the space that is there.

Second: the family already has a very substantial income from commercial property they are renting; the championship golf courses and numerous other places where they seem to have their little hands.

I do not think ‘cashing out’ is what they have in mind. I do think that maximizing the opportunity and increasing the revenue stream are what they are looking for as with each generation there are that many more of ‘them’ to turn into billionaires. I think we should be prepared for them to do thinking outside the box so to speak looking for additional ways to use this space to their best advantage.

Only time will tell.

[72lions]

Your crystal ball may be accurate but certainly not anytime soon. The Villages south f 44 will ultimately be larger than that north with 10-15 years of growths even if no more land is purchased.

I see little change in direction when apartments/condos will mak up 1% of the residents. Frankly I’m surprised that the early multi family buildings in Spanish Springs and Glenview weren’t carried forward over the last 20 years.

[Villagesgal]

I have lived here for 19 years and have heard all this for 19 years. It's nothing new, yet it has not happened yet and probably never will. When we moved here we were told there would never be any assisted living facilities here, that residents would move back home when they needed help to live, well guess what, when the developer saw a need 100,000 people later who didn't want to leave here as they got older, they changed their minds and built assisted living facilities within the Villages. Good for the developer and good for us who live here and don't want to leave. This benefits them and us. Now the developer is building apartments for those who do not want to maintain a home, but are not ready for assisted living. Again, a move that benefits us and the developer. People were up in arms when the developer started building family sections. This was to draw top doctors, dentists and other professionals to this area for the residents. When we moved here there were very few doctors here and they were terrible, you had to go to Ocala, Leesburg or farther to find a decent doctor or dentist, now because of great family housing and a top notch school you have many good doctors and dentists to choose from. People complain about a few empty store fronts, when we moved here there was only Spanish Springs, nothing else, you had to drive to Ocala or Leesburg for shopping, no Lowes, no Home depot, nothing. The developer has a 20 to 30 year plan, always did and it keeps extending out. So many posters have only lived here a short time and don't have a real idea of the changes here in the Villages and how they have profited the developer AND the residents. As far as the family, they have always seen to it that their children are educated in ways that will further the family business. Those who say they are greedy are crying about some slight they see that doesn't fulfill their own wishes. Through the 19 years I've lived here I see all the things we now have that enrich our lives, all done by the family to enrich their pockets which have also enriched our lives. The sky is not falling, enjoy the years you have left.

[ValSetz]

Saw the same thing happen with Independent, Assisted and Memory care units. You are spot on. In 2010 I was looking to move my mom into assisted living. There were a number of new facilities all on the outskirts of the Villages. All of a sudden we had a flurry of new facilities built inside the Villages.

[tophcfa]

I just hope your musing does not give the developer a thought they didn't have before your post.

Really, an enterprise the size of the Villages has consultants and investment bankers feeding them every possible option. It’s just which options the current generation of decision makers pursues.

[tophcfa]

As long as we live in a free enterprise system property owners can buy sell develop as they see fit

You are absolutely correct, within zoning constraints of course. But it needs to be added that the “as they see fit” part can vary greatly depending on their time horizon and end game plan.

[KRM0614]

Very interesting although I would expound on it. The Morse’s have equity interests in the contractors who service this placeThe Morse’s also receive a royalty fee for every business who rents from them as well. They also built a design center where the house add ins are marked up 300-500% also utilizing their equity own contractors They purchased the water company and the residents through increases indirectly paid for the purchasing costs. Along with other revenue streams too long to mention here notwithstanding the medical stream, exploring possibility of an IPO might open their financial and legal dealings to scrutiny.not just financials but their business practices and legal expenses. If they go public, the residents may become very unhappy because they know they have to pay dividends and meet projections. Translated into real life the expenses to live here will skyrocket due to going public. It’s also possible they want to monetize their shares to bring in outside investors.

[graciegirl]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.



I do think something different. And if the worst happened and they sold it? Well I am sure you are more than a dozen years older than when I first read you on this Forum. We can't change the future and we really don't have as much of it to enjoy as we did some years ago.

I trust in the integrity of Jennifer, Tracy and Mark. I see no reason not too. I see what I perceive as a recent rather organized attempt to discredit them that I really think is in part political.

So I disagree. I have very few good qualities but I will admit being vain about my judgement on people's character. I am not wrong too often.

[theruizs]

Wish some of those apartments were sold as condos, or they had villas that included all exterior maintenance. We’d like to downsize and not have to worry about yards, exterior painting, etc., but I don’t like the idea of paying thousands a month in rent.

[NJRICHARD]

The density equation should be considered when building any high rise apartment building. When a relatively small amount of land normally used for single family homes is replaced with a 'high rise', the density increases immediately; the amount of people, golf carts, visitors, etc. Large concentrations of people in a small area must be carefully calculated as to the comfort of the people already living here versus the profit motive.....unfortunately the profit motive almost always wins out. The Villages as we know it will also change.

[dewilson58]

If they go public, the residents may become very unhappy because they know they have to pay dividends and meet projections. Translated into real life the expenses to live here will skyrocket due to going public.


Agree. Just like when Walmart went public. OH WAIT. Walmart is the cheapest place to shop. Hmmmmm. I guess I disagree.


The sky is falling, the sky is falling.


:1rotfl:

[OhioBuckeye]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.

Since the Morse’s are in the business to make money, I’m making a big guess but Katie Belle’s probably isn’t making money for them. So renting or selling apartments is money always coming in. Kahuna, I know TOTV doesn’t want me to talk about anybody or bad mouth a political party. Maybe TV sees the writing on the wall & thinks if a certain political party wins the election & they do get away with what they say they are going to do. It could lose a lot of profit for TV or even bankrupt them. So who know why Morse’s are doing something else with Katie Belle’s but all most of us know it has to have something to do with money! If Katie Belle’s was making a profit Morse’s wouldn’t be doing what they are doing. Believe me Morse’s have made more money than you or me in 4 life times. They built & sold 120,000 plus home & pretty much own TV. They probably see the writing on the wall about where our country is headed. Good post, Kahuna!

[billethkid]

Two or more ways to think about the issue.

One the specific of how does what is going on affect me and my lifestyle?

How does the issue of apartments affect TV overall?

My opinion....... the overall scheme/concept of TV the addition of a few apartment buildings within the thousands of acres and among hundreds of thousands of residents will have very little impact (unless you live within sight of the complex).

[ProfessorDave]

OMG! I should have thought of this. All of your logic fits! I've had experience taking very large public companies private - and large private companies public - and - you nailed it. How did I miss that? My thoughts were buried in the weeds. Thanks for sharing...

Some of the the responses to your thoughts are typical of this site. For example, in what way do you thoughts "discredit" the Morse family? They don't. Most billionaire family's at some time do things to make it easier for family members more flexibility in their longer term investments. The Walton's is a great example.

I'm also recognize that there are consistent contributors who resent any negative thoughts shared. To me - that is so naive, and not very "democratic" in the logic. For example - on the one hand, I thank God every day that I was born in the United States; I thank God everyday I found The Villages by accident. I thank God every day that my early career foundation began at Johnson & Johnson. HOWEVER, none of those are perfect - and by a God given ability to apply "critical thinking" - I constantly questioned lots of things they did. Frankly, the Founding Fathers of our country deliberately set up our form of government precisely to insure "HEALTHY TENSION" - because without it, you have less optimal results.

Therefore, with all due respect, those who want to be ostriches... defend the Morses on every challenge anybody has - enjoy the darkness. And for everybody who sees the Morses as the enemy of the people, hopefully that agony is fulfilling in some way.

To me - some of the Morse's approach (process) I've witnessed in the past year especially is disappointing. A society is not purely based on "if I own it - I can do anything I want" which is such a naive view of how societies work and function. (PS: the father of capitalism - Adam Smith - didn't even believe that!)

In summary. The original post sheds some extraordinarily insight hypothesis on the "drivers" behind recent decisions. The hypothesis is just that - a "best guess" - BUT - it is a very plausible best guess - which is why I find it interesting, whether true or not. I dislike some of the strategic decisions the Morse family has made - and as importantly - how they communicated them - and the perceived attitude of arrogance they demonstrated. For me, that means a) I trust them less, b) I'm less likely to refer friends and family to move here - or - be even more careful where in The Villages they move, but c) I personally still find this to be by far my best option for living the rest of my life on this earth. I don't find any of that incongruent. But in the "black and white" thinking society we live in, I'm sure that some reading this post think it is intellectually incongruent.

[askcarl]

If all of The Kids are in fact Billionaires, Why even live here? Among all the hate and discontent.

I doubt anyone, outside The Family, has any real idea of their Net Worth. I do know that The Family has made Billion $ at risk investments multiple times over the decades in the development of farmland in the middle of nowhere. Cows outnumbered humans in these counties.

So, what should be the reward for being All In on a dream many years ago. And then double down over and over? Some real history: The Villages, Florida - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Villages,_Florida)

Every one of us made it here by making many choices, many decisions. Some good, Some not so good. None of us had the Brains or guts to attempt a Dream this Grand. 1960's Laws against selling land by mail. 1980's Savings and Loan debacle. 2000's dot.com crash. 2008 Market "correction". Not one guarantee of success. Many times and reasons to bailout. Plenty of crushed Florida Developments. [PDF] A Brief Florida Real Estate History - Free Download PDF (https://silo.tips/download/a-brief-florida-real-estate-history) Starting on page 22 to 31.

This business, The Family, is doing exactly what all businesses do. Respond to Change. To economic forces, Laws, customer expectations (market forces, competition, labor costs etc), a Pandemic and not declaring bankruptcy. No nefarious plan to ruin our lives.

Would the vitriol be as intense if any group from this list ran the show? The World’s Largest Public Real Estate Companies 2020 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2020/05/13/the-worlds-largest-public-real-estate-companies-2020/#1aab07ab62f4)

The only Constant is Change. If you had stayed in your last town, it has changed. If you stay here long enough, The Villages will change. Will it be for better or worse? That depends largely on our ability to adapt to the changes or continue with a This Sucks outlook.

Is this place perfect? Far from it. Is there a better place to be? Feel free to post the address.

[tophcfa]

Very interesting although I would expound on it. The Morse’s have equity interests in the contractors who service this placeThe Morse’s also receive a royalty fee for every business who rents from them as well. They also built a design center where the house add ins are marked up 300-500% also utilizing their equity own contractors They purchased the water company and the residents through increases indirectly paid for the purchasing costs. Along with other revenue streams too long to mention here notwithstanding the medical stream, exploring possibility of an IPO might open their financial and legal dealings to scrutiny.not just financials but their business practices and legal expenses. If they go public, the residents may become very unhappy because they know they have to pay dividends and meet projections. Translated into real life the expenses to live here will skyrocket due to going public. It’s also possible they want to monetize their shares to bring in outside investors.

Another very interesting and insightful post. Having to open up their books by going public could open up a huge can of worms. However, that could be avoided by selling to a private equity firm that would be the only party privy to the books. After a period of time the private equity firm could take the enterprise public to cash out. Not saying that’s what will happen, but it’s certainly a possibility?

[Topspinmo]

Two or more ways to think about the issue.

One the specific of how does what is going on affect me and my lifestyle?

How does the issue of apartments affect TV overall?

My opinion....... the overall scheme/concept of TV the addition of a few apartment buildings within the thousands of acres and among hundreds of thousands of residents will have very little impact (unless you live within sight of the complex).

Or they build more that few, lots of empty commercial lots and buildings around.

[Topspinmo]

Very interesting although I would expound on it. The Morse’s have equity interests in the contractors who service this placeThe Morse’s also receive a royalty fee for every business who rents from them as well. They also built a design center where the house add ins are marked up 300-500% also utilizing their equity own contractors They purchased the water company and the residents through increases indirectly paid for the purchasing costs. Along with other revenue streams too long to mention here notwithstanding the medical stream, exploring possibility of an IPO might open their financial and legal dealings to scrutiny.not just financials but their business practices and legal expenses. If they go public, the residents may become very unhappy because they know they have to pay dividends and meet projections. Translated into real life the expenses to live here will skyrocket due to going public. It’s also possible they want to monetize their shares to bring in outside investors.

You don’t become billionaires by spending you’re own money.

[fsusix]

Very well explained and said - thank you for sharing.

[car1chr2]

Spot on. Thanks.

[Stu from NYC]

Very interesting thread.

I have been thinking they are looking for new revenue streams when they started with apartments. Try a few things and see what works and go full steam ahead.

No idea if they are considering going public or selling out. At some point they presumably would want to diversify their investments.

Interesting to find out what local entities they either own or have invested in.

[chewy]

Without the financial support of Villages residents for decades the Morse Family would not have reached their level of success. The comments on this link are concerning. It is an ethical and transparency responsibility of the Morse Family to HONESTLY respond to the comments provided. We have little control over their plans for the future but at a minimum we deserve to be informed of them. I will interpret NO RESPONCE as being complicit in support the statements provided.

[Villages Kahuna]

What were your assumptions in order for the family to cash out with a billion each?? 10% return on apartments, 90% occupancy, five times earnings, etc. Jus wondering. My quick and dirty indicates it would be over 100,000 apartments. They have less than 1,000 apartments now. I don't think the sky is falling in my lifetime.

Please share...............we bean-counters need facts.The estimate of the worth of each of the Morse siblings wasn’t mine. I just used their worth as estimated by Forbes when they added all three to their listing of the Forbes 400 richest people in the world.

But I agree with you that the steps necessary to increase the repeatable earnings of The Villages enterprise will take a few years.

[graciegirl]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.

I think that the Morses are doing what they have always done well. Changing to keep up with the times and the market and changing as their customers needs change. I do not see that they are "changing things in a callous manner".

They have a ready market for this very successful place for years to come if they want to continue. And if they don't. That is their choice. Someone will come and not do it as well. I have watched businesses being bought and sold for decades and the first thing the new owner or director does is try to do it a new and better way when it was a raging success. Remember some years back the new CEO of JCPenney nearly killed the company by changing it's focus from middle class clothing and great drapes and good underwear for kids to being a trendy junior store?

Anyway, I will remind everyone that a steady market of people turning older are looking to join us here in The Villages. Why NOT? It's a great place.

baby boomers retiring every day - Bing (https://www.bing.com/search?q=baby+boomers+retiring+every+day&cvid=9315e71066f3490cbed642c1cb718578&pglt=43&FORM=ANSPA1&PC=DCTS)

[geobet]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.
Some people will die, end up in heaven, and still find something to complain about

[BarryD]

Thanks. You have presented an insightful interpretation of the facts many of us have observed. Your comments and the other people who added further comments did not seem to address a potentially important question. What, if anything, can we, the residents, do about all this? We bought into the dream and promises. Can we protect our assets and the standard of living we've come to enjoy?

[Marty94]

Prior to moving to TV, I lived in a condo association on an ocean front. Our homes were all individually owned and stand-alone. We had one common pool and we paid the developer an amenity fee. The developer who was very much in the pockets of city council also owned an adjacent piece of land and wanted to put up a high-rise apartment building. The developer had a reputation of building very attractive structures whether it was commercial or residential and we were told that it would increase our property value. Homeowners were less than optimistic and put together a legal team to fight the development as there were many million dollar homes in eye sight of this property. For years, homeowners were able to block the development based on environmental impact, but I had a gut feeling that sooner or later the developer would win out. In addition, over time our amenity fees increased from $85/month to over $250/month and there was no legal cap; each year the fees increased. With the concern that traffic would substantially increase (we had only one street that entered our subdivision that we would all be sharing) and knowing that my backyard would be in view of this proposed project, I made the decision to sell. My house sold quickly, after all, it was practically on the beach. Since then, the high rise was built and I’ve continued to stay in touch with my neighbors who informed me that as soon as the construction was completed, the developer sold it all, to include oversight of the association property. Although most of the apartments were sold as condos, my neighbors have noted that new management has failed to keep up with owners renting them out on **** and AirBnB. The homeowners have again tried to fight this, but the city will not take action. My neighbors have reported that their amenity fees increased to $600/month, traffic is a nightmare and although their assessed values have not decreased, homes are on the market 6 months or more and are selling roughly at what they paid for them and sometimes at a loss after realtor fees.

At present, there are five villas around me for sale. The units for sale are lovely, fully furnished, some professionally decorated including the golf cart, and are only a few years old. In my opinion, they are priced very well, basically what they paid for them a few years ago plus realtor fees and maybe $10k to cover furnishings. The units are in a great location (between Sumter and Brownwood), poured concrete and include the most popular floor plans, but the only ones sold in the last 6 months were corner units as buyers are inclined to purchase new units South of 44.

Watching the changes in the Villages concerns me as it must many homeowners. I retired very young. I’m not 100% sure this is my forever home. Perhaps I missed out on my opportunity to sell at a profit, but I do hope the changes made don’t significantly impact me. I hope our amenity fees remain relatively stable (although I know that’s wishful thinking). More so, I hope all the new construction doesn’t create such a saturation of new homes that I can’t sell if I choose to go that route. In the meantime... there are plenty of great buys in my neighborhood.

[npwalters]

I do think something different. And if the worst happened and they sold it? Well I am sure you are more than a dozen years older than when I first read you on this Forum. We can't change the future and we really don't have as much of it to enjoy as we did some years ago.

I trust in the integrity of Jennifer, Tracy and Mark. I see no reason not too. I see what I perceive as a recent rather organized attempt to discredit them that I really think is in part political.

So I disagree. I have very few good qualities but I will admit being vain about my judgement on people's character. I am not wrong too often.

I'm curious; since you place great stock in your ability to sense "the integrity of Jennifer, Tracy and Mark". Have you ever had a chance to participate in a long one on one with any of them?

They are so far removed from most of us normal residents that I only know what any Morse looks like from photos. I wouldn't recognize them if I passed on the street. I'm hoping that you have a better base for your opinion than the other 99% of us do.

[jimjamuser]

Responding to #1 original thread. - Great thread, good hypothesis, logic, and details. Your credentials and experience make your hypothesis very strong. I would add that golf is decreasing in popularity with younger people and retirees. Shopping Centers are decreasing in value. Shopping Malls are defaulting nationally. Carl Ichan is shorting them. The market is up, but CEOs and other inside traders are shorting their Company stocks. TV Land seems to have been created for Baby-boomers that demographically are in decline. The Developers see this "writing on the wall" and may feel they NEED to act soon. Also, the CV adds risk to all society and could speed up their need to act. Wealthy older people are more risk-averse. The Developers could be just appealing to younger customers. Or "cashing out" as you sa, could be their best move.

[Dilligas]

What is the difference in luxury apartments (recently added to TV) and the mass of assisted living units added to and around TV?

As the boomer generation begins to age (now the early boomers in mid 70's) the consideration of luxury apartment/condo living is becoming a way of avoiding the necessary up keep of a free standing home or villa for many.

Also consider...if what you deplict is the developer's plan....why haven't they begun with other large areas like the compound, the stables north of the polo grounds, etc?

If as you say, the building of repeatable & dependable capital flow is their plan, why invest south of SR44, where the profitable return is many years away?

However, there are always negative thinkers that figure the glass is half empty.

[dewilson58]

They are so far removed from most of us normal residents that I only know what any Morse looks like from photos. I wouldn't recognize them if I passed on the street. I'm hoping that you have a better base for your opinion than the other 99% of us do.


Hang around Brownwood...............you can see them all you want.
They actually walk the square like normal people. :faint:

Jennifer has stopped a number of times for a conversation.


:ho:

[jimjamuser]

I agree and I am so glad I am out of there I seen this happening now the Villages is no longer the place to live
And the siblings that are ruining it I wish them bad luck for destroying there parents dream
A lot of truth there!

[Stu from NYC]

What is the difference in luxury apartments (recently added to TV) and the mass of assisted living units added to and around TV?

As the boomer generation begins to age (now the early boomers in mid 70's) the consideration of luxury apartment/condo living is becoming a way of avoiding the necessary up keep of a free standing home or villa for many.

Also consider...if what you deplict is the developer's plan....why haven't they begun with other large areas like the compound, the stables north of the polo grounds, etc?

If as you say, the building of repeatable & dependable capital flow is their plan, why invest south of SR44, where the profitable return is many years away?

However, there are always negative thinkers that figure the glass is half empty.

Developer is a smart group of people constantly looking for new ways to make money but in the short and long run.

Apparently they think they can do so by adding homes south of here as well as apartments.

Just wondering if our experience will start to deteriorate down the road.

[Mrprez]

However, there are always negative thinkers that figure the glass is half empty.

And that profit is a four letter word.

[Polar Bear]

No comment. I just want to live my life and enjoy it.

(But congratulations to those of you who think TV has been ruined and got out in just in time! :))

[Mrprez]

No comment. I just want to live my life and enjoy it.

(But congratulations to those of you who think TV has been ruined and got out in just in time! :))

Or should get out while the getting is good.

[jimjamuser]

Reference post 38....very intelligent post. Impressive. I have some different thoughts about" TV Land being the best place to live (in the whole world). I have not traveled the world, but judging by simple US current events like CV and racial tension - If I had your background, I would probably have moved to New Zealand, Finland, or some similar country.

[Jayhawk]

We have little control over their plans for the future but at a minimum we deserve to be informed of them.

WHY?

What are your future plans? Do all the other residents "deserve to be informed of them"?

The Villages developer has an annual everning where they discuss plans that are baked in. There are frequent inserts and stories in the paper (which you may or may not appreciate).

Surely they don't have to tell us about everything that crosses their desks?

[vintageogauge]

I have no problem with the apartments that are in the works within TV however he apartments The Villages are building are a drop in the bucket when compared to the apartments going up in Lady Lake or Fruitland Park, wildwood, and those proposed for Coleman. These are not age restricted for the most part and will have a great affect on the open areas such as the squares, restaurants, walking trails, and some amenities such as dog parks where ID's are rarely checked within TV than those that are being mentioned above. The workforce needs places to live and they are preparing for them by building new schools. There are also several new RV parks and expansions to existing parks that are in the works so, it is not just "The Family" that will be cashing in on apartments and/or condominiums. With the number of new residents and nearby residents the commercial buildings should soon be getting tenants.

[jimjamuser]

If all of The Kids are in fact Billionaires, Why even live here? Among all the hate and discontent.

I doubt anyone, outside The Family, has any real idea of their Net Worth. I do know that The Family has made Billion $ at risk investments multiple times over the decades in the development of farmland in the middle of nowhere. Cows outnumbered humans in these counties.

So, what should be the reward for being All In on a dream many years ago. And then double down over and over? Some real history: The Villages, Florida - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Villages,_Florida)

Every one of us made it here by making many choices, many decisions. Some good, Some not so good. None of us had the Brains or guts to attempt a Dream this Grand. 1960's Laws against selling land by mail. 1980's Savings and Loan debacle. 2000's dot.com crash. 2008 Market "correction". Not one guarantee of success. Many times and reasons to bailout. Plenty of crushed Florida Developments. [PDF] A Brief Florida Real Estate History - Free Download PDF (https://silo.tips/download/a-brief-florida-real-estate-history) Starting on page 22 to 31.

This business, The Family, is doing exactly what all businesses do. Respond to Change. To economic forces, Laws, customer expectations (market forces, competition, labor costs etc), a Pandemic and not declaring bankruptcy. No nefarious plan to ruin our lives.

Would the vitriol be as intense if any group from this list ran the show? The World’s Largest Public Real Estate Companies 2020 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2020/05/13/the-worlds-largest-public-real-estate-companies-2020/#1aab07ab62f4)

The only Constant is Change. If you had stayed in your last town, it has changed. If you stay here long enough, The Villages will change. Will it be for better or worse? That depends largely on our ability to adapt to the changes or continue with a This Sucks outlook.

Is this place perfect? Far from it. Is there a better place to be? Feel free to post the address.
I know a former Villager that chose to leave and got to a development in Costa Rico. Check that out.

[Madelaine Amee]

I know a former Villager that chose to leave and got to a development in Costa Rico. Check that out.

I have been going through these posts and wondering how much worse it can get and now you are giving us Costa Rico. Really! Are you aware that even the resort complexes are behind 12ft walls and have armed giards patrolling the walls at night due to the amount of crime on the Island. The threat from crime | U.S. Embassy in Costa Rica (https://cr.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/local-resources-of-u-s-citizens/safety-and-security/the-threat-from-crime/)

Are you seriously suggesting that large numbers of elderly retirees should sell ttheir attractive homes in TV to set up life again in PR.Let me suggest you go for it and let us know how you make out!

[Polar Bear]

...None of us had the Brains or guts to attempt a Dream this Grand...
Or how about...the desire. :)

[gidget72]

Dear Kahuna Thank you...at least it is something to think about and watch out for..

[Mrprez]

I have been going through these posts and wondering how much worse it can get and now you are giving us Costa Rico. Really! Are you aware that even the resort complexes are behind 12ft walls and have armed giards patrolling the walls at night due to the amount of crime on the Island. The threat from crime | U.S. Embassy in Costa Rica (https://cr.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/local-resources-of-u-s-citizens/safety-and-security/the-threat-from-crime/)

Are you seriously suggesting that large numbers of elderly retirees should sell ttheir attractive homes in TV to set up life again in PR.Let me suggest you go for it and let us know how you make out!

Where is Costa Rico? Are you talking about Costa Rica? What has Puerto Rico have to do with this?

[mamamia54]

I agree and I am so glad I am out of there I seen this happening now the Villages is no longer the place to live
And the siblings that are ruining it I wish them bad luck for destroying there parents dream

Wow!

[jimjamuser]

I have been going through these posts and wondering how much worse it can get and now you are giving us Costa Rico. Really! Are you aware that even the resort complexes are behind 12ft walls and have armed giards patrolling the walls at night due to the amount of crime on the Island. The threat from crime | U.S. Embassy in Costa Rica (https://cr.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/local-resources-of-u-s-citizens/safety-and-security/the-threat-from-crime/)

Are you seriously suggesting that large numbers of elderly retirees should sell ttheir attractive homes in TV to set up life again in PR.Let me suggest you go for it and let us know how you make out!
Just know 1. I did not say that I researched the subject into oblivion. The button I hit was QUICK reply, not University Dissertation! I do that sometimes. Next time I will call you and say, "Mama may I" first!

But, thanks for the link, I WILL read it.

[champion6]

I have no problem with the apartments that are in the works within TV however he apartments The Villages are building are a drop in the bucket when compared to the apartments going up in Lady Lake or Fruitland Park, wildwood, and those proposed for Coleman. These are not age restricted for the most part and will have a great affect on the open areas such as the squares, restaurants, walking trails, and some amenities such as dog parks where ID's are rarely checked within TV than those that are being mentioned above. The workforce needs places to live and they are preparing for them by building new schools. There are also several new RV parks and expansions to existing parks that are in the works so, it is not just "The Family" that will be cashing in on apartments and/or condominiums. With the number of new residents and nearby residents the commercial buildings should soon be getting tenants.There are a lot of apartments nearby.

Fruitland Park
Fruitland Acres Apartments, Urick St
Mirror Lake Manor Apartments, E Mirror Lake Dr
Spring Lake Cove Apartments, Spring Lake Rd

Lady Lake
Arden Place Apartments, N Clay Ave
Arlington Oaks Apartments, Arlington Ave & Shilo Ave
Caleb's Place Apartments, Old Dixie Hwy & Sunny Oaks Way
Carmendy Square Townhomes, Old Dixie Hwy & Sunny Oaks Way
Hammock Oaks, PROPOSED 2020, CR 466 & CR 100, Cherry Lake Rd
Lady Lake Square Apartments, PROPOSED 2020, CR 25 & Griffin Ave
Lake North Apartments, CR 466 & Lake North Cir
Lakewood Villas of Lady Lake, Old Dixie Hwy & Sunny Oaks Way
Oakleaf Village Apartments, CR 466 & Lake North Cir
Parkside at East Village, NE 136th Loop Rd
Rolling Acres Apartments, CR 466 & Rolling Acres Rd
The Cove at Lady Lake Apartments, Hwy 27/441
The Quarters Apartments, CR 25 & Fennell Blvd

Wildwood
Club Wildwood Apartments, Huey St
Pepper Tree Apartments, Pepper Tree Ln & US 301
The Wilds at Trailwinds, APPROVED 2019, Trailwinds Village
Wildwood Commons Apartments, Lee St & Clark St
Wildwood Preserve, APPROVED 2020, Powell Rd & CR 144
Wildwood Terrace Apartments, S Old Wire Rd & Gilliam St
Wildwood Townhomes, E Gulf Atlantic Hwy

Sumter County
Lake Sumter Crossings, APPROVED 2018, CR 466 & CR 100,Cherry Lake Rd

The Villages
Hacienda Hills, ANNOUNCED 2020, Hacienda Hills
Katie Bell's, ANNOUNCED 2020, Spanish Springs
The Lofts, Brownwood

Bushnell
Bushnell Garden Apartments, Jumper Dr S
Misty Woods Apartments, Jumper Dr N

Lake Panasoffkee
Graceville Apartments, N CR 470
Leisure Living Town Homes, CR 463B
Panasoffkee Apartments, CR 482

Webster
Webster Apartments, E CR 478

[jimjamuser]

I have been going through these posts and wondering how much worse it can get and now you are giving us Costa Rico. Really! Are you aware that even the resort complexes are behind 12ft walls and have armed giards patrolling the walls at night due to the amount of crime on the Island. The threat from crime | U.S. Embassy in Costa Rica (https://cr.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/local-resources-of-u-s-citizens/safety-and-security/the-threat-from-crime/)

Are you seriously suggesting that large numbers of elderly retirees should sell ttheir attractive homes in TV to set up life again in PR.Let me suggest you go for it and let us know how you make out!
Maybe it was the Dominican Republic? How about somewhere (?) in South America on the ocean and the Atlantic side? Is that a little better?

[NavyVet]

Interesting theories and I certainly possible, though I'm not able to predict the future. I've been here 17 years, so have seen a lot of changes. I had hoped TV would be my forever home until my final move to an urn. I hope to be around another 20 years if I'm lucky. I am not yet 65, but am already researching/planning my exit strategy from TV. It may take 5 years or 10 years, who knows? It all depends on circumstances. I like my home, but feel it is not worth the amount of money I've spent (bonds, etc.) for amenities and 'lifestyle' I am unable to use. Down the road, I might as well sell my house and move to a CCRC and it won't be Freedom Pointe.

[CFrance]

Some people will die, end up in heaven, and still find something to complain about
In no way did I see this informed opinion as a complaint. It came out of past experience and knowledge of how businesses work.

[ronvillages]

Good article, residents need their own politicians elected. Start by rezoning the entire villages one acre residential.

[Number 10 GI]

Just know 1. I did not say that I researched the subject into oblivion. The button I hit was QUICK reply, not University Dissertation! I do that sometimes. Next time I will call you and say, "Mama may I" first!

But, thanks for the link, I WILL read it.

It is a fact that has been out there for a couple decades or more that the retirement communities in Costa Rica are walled and guarded enclaves due to the criminal element targeting the retirees. Residents are advised to only leave the community during the day and even then be extremely careful.

[tophcfa]

In no way did I see this informed opinion as a complaint. It came out of past experience and knowledge of how businesses work.

I totally agree. The OP, Kahuna, is not complaining at all. Kahuna is simply submitting an educated theory to be considered as to why the sudden seemingly change in the developers business model, with a focus on high density rental apartment complexes.

I would highly recommend everyone read the book Freakonomics (a photo of the book is attached). The book explains how peoples behavior can be easily explained by taking a close look at their incentives or motivations. Kahuna's theory that the developer might be setting up their enterprise for an eventual exist strategy (their possible motive), which would explain the recently observed events.

Thanks again Kahuna for the very thought provoking post/thread.

[Jayhawk]

I totally agree. The OP, Kahuna, is not complaining at all. Kahuna is simply submitting an educated theory to be considered as to why the sudden seemingly change in the developers business model, with a focus on high density rental apartment complexes.



So a few hundred apartment units (compared to 50,000 new homes being built south of 44) is a "focus on high density rental apartment complexes?" Or is it just another option for people who may prefer it?

[PugMom]

well, yeah. one day i may not want the house anymore. i wouldn't mind living on the square, i grew up in a city, it has charm if you like that sort of thing

[John41]

There was a very successful, respected businessman. For years his company was successful. He did very well for his investors year after year. Donated to charities. People loved him and put their trust in him with their money. Then some people started criticizing him, obviously an organized attempt from a few jealous individuals to discredit their idol. They must be anti capitalist his admirers thought. Then one day an article appears in the paper saying their idol might be a false god. The paper was the Wall Street Journal and the businessman was Bernie Madoff. The rest of the story is history. I am not saying the Morse’s are doing anything wrong but when it is my money I am skeptical and not trusting. As Ronald Reagan said “trust but verify”.

[birdiebill]

There is a lot of gloom and doom discussed here. While we all have to look out for ourselves, conspiracy ideas and theories seem to abound. Hacienda Hills and Katie Belles ceased to make a profit. Hacienda Hills building needed a very expensive upgrade if it was to exist. But in the four years we have been here, we were never impressed with it as a restaurant. Never ate there for dinner. Ate there numerous times for lunch after golf, but service was slow. Limited menu. Never crowded. Numerous changes of management. No one of us knows the number of units, number or size of buildings. We just know there will be age restricted apartments, amenities open for everyone, and a restaurant. Why not wait and see what the plans are before becoming so negative towards the developer? Likewise Katie Belles; never went there. Any business has to be supported by customers to stay in business. Restaurants can not survive on old people wanting a fine dining experience but only willing to pay fast food prices.

The comments about numerous commercial properties being vacant cause me to wonder where these tremendous number of vacancies exist. Brownwood has a few, but no developer would be building as many new commercial properties there if he and his advisers did not believe they would be able to fill them. The Lofts will help provide customers as well as the southern area via Megisson Road and the MMP over Brownwood Bridge. I am not familiar with all commercial areas but Colony, Pinellas, Lake Deaton Plaza, Lake Sumter Landing do not have many vacancies. The developer would rather have a tenant at “reasonable” rent than to have a retail site vacant. The developer can not just open a business. His retail rents have to be competitive with the retail rents in the local area. A prospective tenant has to decide the local population will support his business; will these retirees part with their hard earned money to support my business?

The differences we see in the business model may have as much to do with the people who will be retiring in the next few years having different preferences in living style and in retirement activities than those of us who have retired in the past 15 to 20 years. I personally like the recently shared developer’s vision for the Southern area. The medical center complex, the added charter school campus, the sports complex, the family living area for individuals who work in the Villages, as well as the conventional age restricted single family homes villages.

I often wonder if the Covid19 pandemic with its social distancing, masks, restricted activities, lack of entertainment at the squares, etc have affected all of our minds in a negative way. Conspiracy theories abound. So many have become exceedingly negative. I believe things will return to normal; don’t know when, but we will try to keep positive and choose to be happy with what we can do and not focus on what we cannot.

[Jayhawk]

There is a lot of gloom and doom discussed here. While we all have to look out for ourselves, conspiracy ideas and theories seem to abound. Hacienda Hills and Katie Belles ceased to make a profit. Hacienda Hills building needed a very expensive upgrade if it was to exist. But in the four years we have been here, we were never impressed with it as a restaurant. Never ate there for dinner. Ate there numerous times for lunch after golf, but service was slow. Limited menu. Never crowded. Numerous changes of management. No one of us knows the number of units, number or size of buildings. We just know there will be age restricted apartments, amenities open for everyone, and a restaurant. Why not wait and see what the plans are before becoming so negative towards the developer? Likewise Katie Belles; never went there. Any business has to be supported by customers to stay in business. Restaurants can not survive on old people wanting a fine dining experience but only willing to pay fast food prices.

The comments about numerous commercial properties being vacant cause me to wonder where these tremendous number of vacancies exist. Brownwood has a few, but no developer would be building as many new commercial properties there if he and his advisers did not believe they would be able to fill them. The Lofts will help provide customers as well as the southern area via Megisson Road and the MMP over Brownwood Bridge. I am not familiar with all commercial areas but Colony, Pinellas, Lake Deaton Plaza, Lake Sumter Landing do not have many vacancies. The developer would rather have a tenant at “reasonable” rent than to have a retail site vacant. The developer can not just open a business. His retail rents have to be competitive with the retail rents in the local area. A prospective tenant has to decide the local population will support his business; will these retirees part with their hard earned money to support my business?

The differences we see in the business model may have as much to do with the people who will be retiring in the next few years having different preferences in living style and in retirement activities than those of us who have retired in the past 15 to 20 years. I personally like the recently shared developer’s vision for the Southern area. The medical center complex, the added charter school campus, the sports complex, the family living area for individuals who work in the Villages, as well as the conventional age restricted single family homes villages.

I often wonder if the Covid19 pandemic with its social distancing, masks, restricted activities, lack of entertainment at the squares, etc have affected all of our minds in a negative way. Conspiracy theories abound. So many have become exceedingly negative. I believe things will return to normal; don’t know when, but we will try to keep positive and choose to be happy with what we can do and not focus on what we cannot.

Nominated for Best Post of the Topic. Good job !!!!!

[Northwoods]

I have lived here for 19 years and have heard all this for 19 years. It's nothing new, yet it has not happened yet and probably never will. When we moved here we were told there would never be any assisted living facilities here, that residents would move back home when they needed help to live, well guess what, when the developer saw a need 100,000 people later who didn't want to leave here as they got older, they changed their minds and built assisted living facilities within the Villages. Good for the developer and good for us who live here and don't want to leave. This benefits them and us. Now the developer is building apartments for those who do not want to maintain a home, but are not ready for assisted living. Again, a move that benefits us and the developer. People were up in arms when the developer started building family sections. This was to draw top doctors, dentists and other professionals to this area for the residents. When we moved here there were very few doctors here and they were terrible, you had to go to Ocala, Leesburg or farther to find a decent doctor or dentist, now because of great family housing and a top notch school you have many good doctors and dentists to choose from. People complain about a few empty store fronts, when we moved here there was only Spanish Springs, nothing else, you had to drive to Ocala or Leesburg for shopping, no Lowes, no Home depot, nothing. The developer has a 20 to 30 year plan, always did and it keeps extending out. So many posters have only lived here a short time and don't have a real idea of the changes here in the Villages and how they have profited the developer AND the residents. As far as the family, they have always seen to it that their children are educated in ways that will further the family business. Those who say they are greedy are crying about some slight they see that doesn't fulfill their own wishes. Through the 19 years I've lived here I see all the things we now have that enrich our lives, all done by the family to enrich their pockets which have also enriched our lives. The sky is not falling, enjoy the years you have left.
:bigbow:

[Laker14]

I have been a non-invested observer of TV since 2008, when good friends bought a place in Largo. The Mrs. and I have been down many times visiting, and have rented for the snowbird season the last two winters, and will be renting for 6 months this coming winter. We have the dough to buy, and are keeping our eyes open for a place that might suit us, although our rental arrangement is pretty sweet. I explain all of that because I think it qualifies me as knowledgable about TV, but without the biases inherent when one has invested a lot of money in a hopeful outcome.
What I've noticed over the years that concerns me the most about actually buying a place is the increased traffic on the pickleball courts and the executive golf courses. I don't see how increasing the density of the population is going to help that dynamic at all. That concerns me.
I wouldn't be buying a place with the idea that I need the property value to appreciate in order to make it work. I'm too old to be worried about that. But, I would be making an investment in a "lifestyle" that includes golf, and pickle, and the pools, and a few other incidental activities, and I'm not sure I would want to be anchored in a place where the developers/owners have so much control over how the community will evolve over the next 15 years. As a somewhat distanced observer, I think they've demonstrated well enough that their agenda is making as much money as they can, and if it's at the expense of the existing population who bought into a marketing promise 10 or 15 years prior, well, too bad for them.

[hardwick2112@yahoo.com]

Agree with your statement. Also, it is apparent the billionaire siblings have zero confidence in their siblings taking reign of The Villages to continue to make it special. That is what happens when you give 30-somethings a lofty title and responsibility without 1) earning it, 2) lack of experience and 3) intelligence to carry the vision forward.

[jbrown132]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.

Very insightful. When I first moved to The Villages in 2008, one of the big selling points was that The development would cap out between 90 and 100 thousand people. They talked about stopping at 466A then that became SR 42. Although large it was still quaint in many ways. You had the Katie Belle’s in Spanish Springs along with the Cattle Barons up above it. In Lake Sumpter you had the Deli, I don’t remember the name, where Panera is now. Both of these places were always packed and you could not get into Katie Belles without a reservation and you had to be a Villages resident to get in. It was something special. The developer then decided to get out of the restaurant business and the Deli went followed by the Cattle Barons and that is what caused Katie Belle’s to go down hill. Back then even in high season you could go out to dinner at the country clubs and have maybe a 20 to thirty minute wait. Now, on a Friday or Saturday night it’s 1 to 2 hours. So what is next? Is Glenview next to go if it needs repairs as is the excuse for tearing down Hacienda for more apartments. My point is The Villages is dense enough as it is without adding more density. In my working days I use to keep a saying on my office wall. It said “The market place is littered with the remains of companies that deviated from what they were good at.” A good thing for the developers to think about.

[LowOnCash]

If the residents of the Village do not stand up to the Village Corporate Group, what you have now will be gone forever. As far as they are concerned you are nothinjg but a Vin number and $ signs. The Apartments will destroy the values of the Villages for ever. Demand that they be stopped, Pickett the construction sites, get involved, they are taking over what you worked your life for.

Get Involved they will not stop without Opposition!

Stay Safe Mike

[NancyMo]

Very good point. I agree, but unfortunately there’s nothing we as homeowners can do about it.

[orlandoinkeywest@yahoo.co]

The question is how does this impact our property values? As a former realtor and real estate investor I suspect it will significantly decrease value over time.

[wjearly]

I think you are RIGHT ON!

[wamley]

Don't be surprised if more golf course are changed into housing or apartments. Loss of golf activity for many reasons will prompt, IMO. more golf course closings or reduction in gold course holes within the Villages from 27 hole course down graded to 18 holes and apartments erected. The IPO analysis by VILLAGES KAHUNA is right on.

[Jayhawk]

IMO. more golf course closings or reduction in gold course holes within the Villages from 27 hole course down graded to 18 holes and apartments erected.

Which golf courses have closed?

[Jayhawk]

The question is how does this impact our property values? As a former realtor and real estate investor I suspect it will significantly decrease value over time.

If you could also predict the stock market, you'd have everything covered.

[Laker14]

If you could also predict the stock market, you'd have everything covered.

do you think that increasing population density will increase pressure on shared amenities?

[Eg_cruz]

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.
Or it could be simple. Most single women don’t want the burden of a home and want to stay in The Villages.
Had a lot of clients leave the area for that reason.

[Jayhawk]

do you think that increasing population density will increase pressure on shared amenities?

Nope, because they are also adding more and more amenities as population grows.

Foe example, Hacienda pool was Priority only. The new one will be open to all residents. Same as The Lofts.

[NoMoSno]

Nope, because they are also adding more and more amenities as population grows.

Foe example, Hacienda pool was Priority only. The new one will be open to all residents. Same as The Lofts.
Do you think it will add more traffic to the already overcrowded single lane Morse Blvd. as well as the dangerous cart path that co-mingles with that traffic?

[Jayhawk]

Do you think it will add more traffic to the already overcrowded single lane Morse Blvd. as well as the dangerous cart path that co-mingles with that traffic?

Maybe, but so would a Costco or Trader Joe's which thousands of residents have been begging for. Progress happens.

[NoMoSno]

Maybe, but so would a Costco or Trader Joe's which thousands of residents have been begging for. Progress happens.
Along with progress comes upgrading existing infrastructure to accommodate the growth.

[Jayhawk]

Along with progress comes upgrading existing infrastructure to accommodate the growth.

How do you know that is not in the master plan? Not everything is public knowkledge, nor should it be when it's a private business.

[NoMoSno]

How do you know that is not in the master plan? Not everything is public knowkledge, nor should it be when it's a private business.
Widening Morse Blvd. and creating a proper MMP would be a major positive announcement I would think TV would want to share....but maybe not.
I suspect the county will only require a traffic light to be added.
Wonder how many more GC fatalities/accidents it will take before improvements are made?

[Jayhawk]

Widening Morse Blvd. and creating a proper MMP would be a major positive announcement I would think TV would want to share....but maybe not.
I suspect the county will only require a traffic light to be added.
Wonder how many more GC fatalities/accidents it will take before improvements are made?

So you're saying you don't know?

[NoMoSno]

So you're saying you don't know?
My words were "I suspect"
Figure it out.

[Old Bob]

I have lived here for 19 years and have heard all this for 19 years. It's nothing new, yet it has not happened yet and probably never will. When we moved here we were told there would never be any assisted living facilities here, that residents would move back home when they needed help to live, well guess what, when the developer saw a need 100,000 people later who didn't want to leave here as they got older, they changed their minds and built assisted living facilities within the Villages. Good for the developer and good for us who live here and don't want to leave. This benefits them and us. Now the developer is building apartments for those who do not want to maintain a home, but are not ready for assisted living. Again, a move that benefits us and the developer. People were up in arms when the developer started building family sections. This was to draw top doctors, dentists and other professionals to this area for the residents. When we moved here there were very few doctors here and they were terrible, you had to go to Ocala, Leesburg or farther to find a decent doctor or dentist, now because of great family housing and a top notch school you have many good doctors and dentists to choose from. People complain about a few empty store fronts, when we moved here there was only Spanish Springs, nothing else, you had to drive to Ocala or Leesburg for shopping, no Lowes, no Home depot, nothing. The developer has a 20 to 30 year plan, always did and it keeps extending out. So many posters have only lived here a short time and don't have a real idea of the changes here in the Villages and how they have profited the developer AND the residents. As far as the family, they have always seen to it that their children are educated in ways that will further the family business. Those who say they are greedy are crying about some slight they see that doesn't fulfill their own wishes. Through the 19 years I've lived here I see all the things we now have that enrich our lives, all done by the family to enrich their pockets which have also enriched our lives. The sky is not falling, enjoy the years you have left.

I agree with Villagesgal. I have also lived here 19 years, and have seen all of the things she mentioned, and I agree with her completely.

[jimjamuser]

I have been a non-invested observer of TV since 2008, when good friends bought a place in Largo. The Mrs. and I have been down many times visiting, and have rented for the snowbird season the last two winters, and will be renting for 6 months this coming winter. We have the dough to buy, and are keeping our eyes open for a place that might suit us, although our rental arrangement is pretty sweet. I explain all of that because I think it qualifies me as knowledgable about TV, but without the biases inherent when one has invested a lot of money in a hopeful outcome.
What I've noticed over the years that concerns me the most about actually buying a place is the increased traffic on the pickleball courts and the executive golf courses. I don't see how increasing the density of the population is going to help that dynamic at all. That concerns me.
I wouldn't be buying a place with the idea that I need the property value to appreciate in order to make it work. I'm too old to be worried about that. But, I would be making an investment in a "lifestyle" that includes golf, and pickle, and the pools, and a few other incidental activities, and I'm not sure I would want to be anchored in a place where the developers/owners have so much control over how the community will evolve over the next 15 years. As a somewhat distanced observer, I think they've demonstrated well enough that their agenda is making as much money as they can, and if it's at the expense of the existing population who bought into a marketing promise 10 or 15 years prior, well, too bad for them.
That sounds about right from a neutral observer. Population density can cause traffic problems. It can decreased quality of life. It can ruin the intangible, small town, friendly neighborhood aspects of TV Land.

[yankygrl]

In regards to village gal posting - so true. I’ve been here 10 years. I’ve heard the stories of Harold and Gary. I’ve heard how they were never crossing 441, 466, 466A (when I moved here) and then across 44. All of that and more has happened. Most of it has been for the good of the community. I know know idea what agenda this generation is working on BUT I can tell you IMHO, it is bassawards. Homes built with access to amenities, banks, grocery stores etc. Now as they move west and north they are building the rec. centers, championship golf course maybe a town square. “Something ain’t right Lucy”.

[Laker14]

Nope, because they are also adding more and more amenities as population grows.

Foe example, Hacienda pool was Priority only. The new one will be open to all residents. Same as The Lofts.

Are they adding more pickleball courts and/or executive golf courses?

[pauld315]

What were your assumptions in order for the family to cash out with a billion each?? 10% return on apartments, 90% occupancy, five times earnings, etc. Jus wondering. My quick and dirty indicates it would be over 100,000 apartments. They have less than 1,000 apartments now. I don't think the sky is falling in my lifetime.


Please share...............we bean-counters need facts.

They actually already make a ton of repeatable yearly income every year by leasing out over 7 million square feet of commercial property that they own which, contrary to what many think, is 98% leased according to their own website.

The Villages Commercial Property Management (https://thevillagescommercialproperty.com/)

[rjn5656]

Nice write up. Thanks. It makes you think.

[dewilson58]

They actually already make a ton of repeatable yearly income every year by leasing out over 7 million square feet of commercial property that they own which, contrary to what many think, is 98% leased according to their own website.

The Villages Commercial Property Management (https://thevillagescommercialproperty.com/)


Your info may or may not be true, but it is unrelated to my post. My post is specific to the topic of apartment rentals will be the future focus of TV.


:icon_wink:

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

I agree with Villagesgal. I have also lived here 19 years, and have seen all of the things she mentioned, and I agree with her completely. nice to see long time villagers that don’t have the attitude it was better the way it used to be, the family has seen what’s needed here and what many people want, more restaurants, doctors, dentist , more choices of living for those that don’t want to leave and enriching the lives of younger people by building schools, Quality housing , the same younger people that make out lives easier

[Bellbrookgal@gmail.com]

Thanks for that great insight. I wish this was something the Morse family communicated with us directly. Is the Morse family aware of the concerns the residents have? Do they know how their image is with the residents? Do we have a way to communicate with them? Has anyone here ever brought up concerns and actually talked to them?

[mtdjed]

From a different perspective.
According to Wikipedia, The Villages consists of a land area of about 32 square miles and something like 130,000 people. When we moved here in 2006, most everything for sale was a home on a lot or a more closely placed Villa. From our perspective, it appealed to us because that is what we were used to. However, not everyone that retires comes from a homey suburb. Some might be more comfortable in a multiple residence apartment or condo environment and still want to live in The Villages.

As residents age, they might also like the opportunity to downsize into an apartment or condo rather than sign into a conveyor belt facility which starts out at $5000 a month and goes up as the belt moves you from apartment to assisted living to elderly care to memory care.

I think there is room for the alternatives .

[PeoriaGal]

My husband has been commenting on a change in "the feel" of The Villages for a couple of years. After reading your article, the pieces of this puzzling and nagging feeling are taking shape. Sadly, you're probably right or at least in the ballpark. Thanks for your insights.

[Lisa22]

I'd like to add another possible consideration for the future of TV: the need for a new and high quality health care system to address the aging population. Is it possible that the new development projects along with their planned locations will help to address this future need?

The population aged 85 and older is the fastest growing age group in the U.S., and it is projected to be nearly six times as large by 2050 as this age group was in 1990. A 65-year-old person can expect to live another 17 years, and those who live to age 85 have an average of 6 more years of life remaining. This rapid growth of the oldest-old population will have a major effect on the health care system. (ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK232661/).

I am a 59 y.o. health care worker hoping to relocate and work/retire to TV in the next few years. I am thrilled to hear of the new Medical Village complex that will be developed in conjunction with the UF Health System. Is it possible that these new high-density developments will help to serve as alternatives to home ownership for older TVer's or help to attract high quality health care professionals in the short term as new medical services come on line?

I am one individual that is thrilled by the possibility of having a first rate health system in the same community that I wish to retire to as well as to be an individual that will also be able to contribute my knowledge and experience as a 25+ year health care worker coming from a top rated academic hospital system in the northeast U.S.

I wish to own a residence in TV someday and also share the concerns with how my future lifestyle will be impacted by high density living areas nearby.

Can someone help me to correlate whether these new developments are in close enough proximity to the current TV hospital and the future Medical Village complex? I am hoping that future needs for a first rate health system in TV helps to explain the recent developments that are occurring now?

[Laker14]

do you think that increasing population density will increase pressure on shared amenities?

Nope, because they are also adding more and more amenities as population grows.

[QUOTE=Laker14;1823371]Are they adding more pickleball courts and/or executive golf courses?


I'll take your lack of response as a "nope".

[ithos]

I believe there is a pent up demand for homes that have no yard to maintain whether they be townhomes or multifamily units. Not sure why they have not gone that route.

[tghoul]

I do not know why they are in a hurry to build more apartments. They have been leasing The Lofts since February and have leased less than 40 apartments. That is about 5 per month. At that rate it will take 50 months to fill up The Lofts

[Jayhawk]

[QUOTE=Jayhawk;1823162]Nope, because they are also adding more and more amenities as population grows.




I'll take your lack of response as a "nope".

The you either don't read the paper or just don't understand. Clearly they are always adding pickleball court and executive courses.

[Jayhawk]

I do not know why they are in a hurry to build more apartments. They have been leasing The Lofts since February and have leased less than 40 apartments. That is about 5 per month. At that rate it will take 50 months to fill up The Lofts

I guess 40 years of failed experiments by the Morse family keeps them from figuring out what the market wants.

Sarcasm meter at full tilt.

[Bilyclub]

I'd like to add another possible consideration for the future of TV: the need for a new and high quality health care system to address the aging population. Is it possible that the new development projects along with their planned locations will help to address this future need?

The population aged 85 and older is the fastest growing age group in the U.S., and it is projected to be nearly six times as large by 2050 as this age group was in 1990. A 65-year-old person can expect to live another 17 years, and those who live to age 85 have an average of 6 more years of life remaining. This rapid growth of the oldest-old population will have a major effect on the health care system. (ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK232661/).

I am a 59 y.o. health care worker hoping to relocate and work/retire to TV in the next few years. I am thrilled to hear of the new Medical Village complex that will be developed in conjunction with the UF Health System. Is it possible that these new high-density developments will help to serve as alternatives to home ownership for older TVer's or help to attract high quality health care professionals in the short term as new medical services come on line?

I am one individual that is thrilled by the possibility of having a first rate health system in the same community that I wish to retire to as well as to be an individual that will also be able to contribute my knowledge and experience as a 25+ year health care worker coming from a top rated academic hospital system in the northeast U.S.

I wish to own a residence in TV someday and also share the concerns with how my future lifestyle will be impacted by high density living areas nearby.

Can someone help me to correlate whether these new developments are in close enough proximity to the current TV hospital and the future Medical Village complex? I am hoping that future needs for a first rate health system in TV helps to explain the recent developments that are occurring now?



Hacienda Hills is pretty close to the current hospital. The Lofts at Brownwood not close to the site of the new hospital. The new hospital/research is the green area on the map.

Continuing The Dream (https://www.nxtbook.com/thevillages/TheVillages/ContinuingTheDream/index.php/#/p/2)

[Ismay C]

Hello All- I was wondering about the influx of apartments as well. However I am living on a street with folks who have lived in TV for 20+ years and in conversation one woman said she is looking to downsize but did not want to move away from friends. These apartments were very appealing to her downsize maintenance, close to friends..

I do appreciate the investment analysis but I also appreciate the change in demographics as well. Just saying...

[Ismay C]

Hello All- I was wondering about the influx of apartments as well. However, I am living on a street with folks who have lived in TV for 20+ years. In a recent conversation with one neighbor, she said she is looking to downsize but did not want to move away from friends. These apartments were very appealing to her. She could downsize her living space, the maintenance and still be close to friends..

I do appreciate the investment analysis but I also appreciate the change in demographics as well. Just saying...

[dewilson58]

I guess 40 years of failed experiments by the Morse family keeps them from figuring out what the market wants.

Sarcasm meter at full tilt.


We need a sarcasm emoji!!!

[amorep]

I find that with all these changes will come a point where the question "Why would I want to move to the Villages?" will eventually be asked. We are losing the lifestyle we bought into and I for one would not suggest it to a friend at this point. Soon it will become so crowded and the roads will be so packed that it will become unrecognizable. My real question is what will the reason be to chose the Villages?

[dewilson58]

My real question is what will the reason be to chose the Villages?


:1rotfl:

Same as last year, Same as five years ago, Same as 20 years ago.

[Laker14]

[QUOTE=Laker14;1824836]

The you either don't read the paper or just don't understand. Clearly they are always adding pickleball court and executive courses.

are they building any within a 20 minute cart ride of the new apartments at Hacienda?

Mistake by the forum: that's Jayhawk's quote, not mine.

[Kilmacowen]

Original poster Lisa 22, be prepared for a big drop in wage anywhere in Florida . You will not get the salary as the northeast, if dependant on that.

[Lisa22]

A big wage drop is ok with me. I simply want to become a Villager, make alot of new friends and still work a bit as I feel both too young and too insecure to retire completely just yet. I want to be a positive contributor to the community.

[Jayhawk]

are they building any within a 20 minute cart ride of the new apartments at Hacienda?



Your question was are they building more with the population growth and clearly they are.

I think we've beat this to death so I'll move on the the next Negative Nelly.

[Laker14]

Your question was are they building more with the population growth and clearly they are.

I think we've beat this to death so I'll move on the the next Negative Nelly.

And the follow up question you refuse to answer was "are they building any new executive courses or pickleball courts within a 20 minute cart ride of the new apartments at Hacienda", which of course would be more meaningful to the neighborhood than new courts on the other side of the turnpike.

Well you can move on if you like. But the reason you are moving on is because the answer to the question is "no". The concern raised is how the increased population density resultant from adding the apartment building at Hacienda will increase congestion at the neighborhood amenities, e.g. golf and pickleball. You have repeatedly denigrated those concerns. They are real. Building new courses and courts in the newly developed areas, south of Brownwood will do little, if anything ,to alleviate the neighborhood congestion around Hacienda.
There is a legitimate and understandable reason to be concerned that this could be the beginning of a trend. Any of the country clubs could be handled the same way. There is ample reason to believe that if comes down to a choice between increasing revenues, or maintaining the current density of population of a neighborhood, the current owners/developers will grab the cash, and if the area gets more jammed up at the pools, courts, and executive courses, well, that's just too bad for the folks who invested in what they believed was a certain lifestyle.

[Jayhawk]

And the follow up question you refuse to answer was "are they building any new executive courses or pickleball courts within a 20 minute cart ride of the new apartments at Hacienda", which of course would be more meaningful to the neighborhood than new courts on the other side of the turnpike.

Well you can move on if you like. But the reason you are moving on is because the answer to the question is "no". The concern raised is how the increased population density resultant from adding the apartment building at Hacienda will increase congestion at the neighborhood amenities, e.g. golf and pickleball. You have repeatedly denigrated those concerns. They are real. Building new courses and courts in the newly developed areas, south of Brownwood will do little, if anything ,to alleviate the neighborhood congestion around Hacienda.
There is a legitimate and understandable reason to be concerned that this could be the beginning of a trend. Any of the country clubs could be handled the same way. There is ample reason to believe that if comes down to a choice between increasing revenues, or maintaining the current density of population of a neighborhood, the current owners/developers will grab the cash, and if the area gets more jammed up at the pools, courts, and executive courses, well, that's just too bad for the folks who invested in what they believed was a certain lifestyle.

I'm moving on because you bore me, but I will say there are ALWAYS openings on the executive courses and the pickleball courts north of 466, which is where these apartments will be. So you are wasting your valuable time continuing with your head in the sand. Get over it. They are building the apartments and it won't harm in the least. And people will still be able to acces the courses and courts that are lightly used in the north areas.

Bye Felicia.

[npwalters]

I'm moving on because you bore me, but I will say there are ALWAYS openings on the executive courses and the pickleball courts north of 466, which is where these apartments will be. So you are wasting your valuable time continuing with your head in the sand. Get over it. They are building the apartments and it won't harm in the least. And people will still be able to acces the courses and courts that are lightly used in the north areas.

Bye Felicia.

I play pickleball north of 466. You are absolutely wrong. In the summer the courts are full every day. In the winter/high season it is normal to have a 20 to 30 person waiting line. That is true for EVERY PB court.

[Laker14]

I play pickleball north of 466. You are absolutely wrong. In the summer the courts are full every day. In the winter/high season it is normal to have a 20 to 30 person waiting line. That is true for EVERY PB court.

in the winter, the executive golf courses are fully booked, sunrise to sunset. You might be able to find a single opening somewhere, but essentially, all of the times are taken. The courses themselves are generally beat to smithereens from the constant onslaught of foot and cart traffic.

There are acres and acres of land still being developed, why not set up the apartments down there, where the opportunity still exists to build the appropriate infrastructure to the intended population density, rather than retrofit an apartment complex into an area not designed for that many people? Why? Because we can. Because we can make more money. Because we really don't care how it affects the existing neighborhood. Because no matter how much money we have, we still want more money.

[collie1228]

The Chinese have a saying, “Fu bu guo san dai,” or “Wealth never survives three generations.” America has its own version of this saying: “From shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations.” It is beginning to seem like The Villages has begun to be impacted by the "Third Generation Rule" of family business.

[FishnFool]

The you either don't read the paper or just don't understand. Clearly they are always adding pickleball court and executive courses.

There is not any formal or informal plan for any of those additional amenities north of 466, which is where the VLS has requested a change in zoning to construct the apartments. Folks are anticipating an increased pressure on the current amenities in that area if such re-zoning were to be approved. I live in this area. While I would welcome additional amenities in our area, it's not unreasonable to request to know where they will be and how much they could cost us.

This is why folks are asking questions of the officials who would vote on this issue. An added complexity to this area north of 466 is that it spans 3 counties, but since these Villages are next door to each other and interact with our shared VCCDD amenities, what happens in one Village/county can and does impact all of our LifeStyles north of 466.

Some people wish to be active in what happens to their/our community, others don't. But I hope we can all agree that we wish to continue the philosophy of "It's a beautiful day in the Villages!".

[tophcfa]

[QUOTE=Laker14;1824836]

The you either don't read the paper or just don't understand. Clearly they are always adding pickleball court and executive courses.

Really, tell me when they added the last executive course north of 466? And how about the last time they added to one of the terribly overcrowded sports pools north of 466? Cant wait for this answer!

[Jayhawk]

There is not any formal or informal plan for any of those additional amenities north of 466, which is where the VLS has requested a change in zoning to construct the apartments. Folks are anticipating an increased pressure on the current amenities in that area if such re-zoning were to be approved. I live in this area. While I would welcome additional amenities in our area, it's not unreasonable to request to know where they will be and how much they could cost us.

This is why folks are asking questions of the officials who would vote on this issue. An added complexity to this area north of 466 is that it spans 3 counties, but since these Villages are next door to each other and interact with our shared VCCDD amenities, what happens in one Village/county can and does impact all of our LifeStyles north of 466.

Some people wish to be active in what happens to their/our community, others don't. But I hope we can all agree that we wish to continue the philosophy of "It's a beautiful day in the Villages!".

I guess you missed it when someone posted the plan which CLEARLY mentioned a new resort pool, bocce, shuffleboard and cornhole courts. NORTH OF 466. All available to ALL residents and visitors.

But hey, no need to quibble over facts, right?

[Jayhawk]

Really, tell me when they added the last executive course north of 466? And how about the last time they added to one of the terribly overcrowded sports pools north of 466? Cant wait for this answer!

See post #138. Now I'm getting worn out having to tell you where everything is. Start looking it up for yourself and please, try to have a positive day.

By the way, we don't need additional executive courses north of 466. There are always openings there while south of 466 are full nearly every day.

:boom:

[tophcfa]

See post #138. Now I'm getting worn out having to tell you where everything is. Start looking it up for yourself and please, try to have a positive day.

By the way, we don't need additional executive courses north of 466. There are always openings there while south of 466 are full nearly every day.

:boom:

Even though I already knew the answer to my question you answered it anyways, there are no new sports pools or executive courses north of 466. You don’t need to tell me where things are, I already know, and I also know how difficult it can be to get t times at the executives. And every day is a positive day : )

[npwalters]

I guess you missed it when someone posted the plan which CLEARLY mentioned a new resort pool, bocce, shuffleboard and cornhole courts. NORTH OF 466. All available to ALL residents and visitors.

But hey, no need to quibble over facts, right?

Those are NOT facts. The developer has not committed to anything including the enticements mentioned above. Even if they actually do include these things there will be at least 500 new residents in the apartments trying to use them.

[graciegirl]

Those are NOT facts. The developer has not committed to anything including the enticements mentioned above. Even if they actually do include these things there will be at least 500 new residents in the apartments trying to use them.

Where does the 500 number come from? Is it this how many people are going to occupy the apartment building where Hacienda Hills Country club used to be? Is it 500 units in that building? Does anyone know how many units are in the Lofts at Brownwood? Are they all occupied by two people or are half occupied by one or like us do they have three?

Does the 500 number mean actual people? Think how many people living around a public pool in The Villages and think about how many use the pool? Pools are more crowded in high season on fair days all through out The Villages. All through out Florida.

Have never seen a crowd at Bocce, Cornhole or horseshoes anywhere in The Villages.

I hope that none of the things you worry about never happen. For you and for all of us. I have had in my life just reasons to be pessimistic. I don't think I am an unreasonable Pollyanna. I just think this will absorb nicely and do well.

[npwalters]

Where does the 500 number come from? Is it this how many people are going to occupy the apartment building where Hacienda Hills Country club used to be? Is it 500 units in that building? Does anyone know how many units are in the Lofts at Brownwood? Are they all occupied by two people or are half occupied by one or like us do they have three?

Does the 500 number mean actual people? Think how many people living around a public pool in The Villages and think about how many use the pool? Pools are more crowded in high season on fair days all through out The Villages. All through out Florida.

Have never seen a crowd at Bocce, Cornhole or horseshoes anywhere in The Villages.

I hope that none of the things you worry about never happen. For you and for all of us. I have had in my life just reasons to be pessimistic. I don't think I am an unreasonable Pollyanna. I just think this will absorb nicely and do well.

The 500 is an estimate of people. That is, of course, what matters when talking about who uses amenities. That is a conservative number based on up to 280 new apartments.

I too have never seen a crowd around Bocce, Cornhole or horseshoes. Doubt we ever will. Now, crowds at the pickleball courts, tennis, softball, or golf in the high season is another matter. Those are always crowded in the Spanish Springs area in the high season.

"I hope that none of the things you worry about never happen" Me too.

[FishnFool]

I guess you missed it when someone posted the plan which CLEARLY mentioned a new resort pool, bocce, shuffleboard and cornhole courts. NORTH OF 466. All available to ALL residents and visitors.

But hey, no need to quibble over facts, right?

I am aware of the wording in the amended amenity rights " If the amenity rights are utilized in this manner, VLS shall construct, at a minimum, a resort-style pool, sport and activity courts, walking paths and open spaces – all of which shall be accessible to residents and guests. "

I'm sorry but I've reread this whole thread and can't find anything from the VLS that they have committed to where any of those things will be built and details like what the specific "activity courts" would be?

They could build apartments on the HH site but the amenities else where couldn't they? I'm not saying they would do that but our elected officials should be able to answer some of these questions for residents before saying Yes to rezoning. It wasn't an accident that no one from VLS was at the AAC meeting to answer questions!

[Laker14]

[QUOTE=Jayhawk;1825035]

Really, tell me when they added the last executive course north of 466? And how about the last time they added to one of the terribly overcrowded sports pools north of 466? Cant wait for this answer!

tophcfa, I did not post that as quoted. Jayhawk did. I don't know why the board shows that as my quote.