Prices Going Up?

[westernrider75]

We were planning on buying in TV in about 2 years, but are tempted to do it now because of low interest rates and what appears to be prices increasing by about 5-7% annually. Are the prices consistently increasing? Probably most in a new build or newer preowned,

[JoMar]

We were planning on buying in TV in about 2 years, but are tempted to do it now because of low interest rates and what appears to be prices increasing by about 5-7% annually. Are the prices consistently increasing? Probably most in a new build or newer preowned,

We just did a refi and the appraisal agreed with your 5-7% over the 6 years we have been here. Lower than Zillow but I felt it was the right number.

[Packer Fan]

We were planning on buying in TV in about 2 years, but are tempted to do it now because of low interest rates and what appears to be prices increasing by about 5-7% annually. Are the prices consistently increasing? Probably most in a new build or newer preowned,

Yes, 5-7%. Don't forget you can lease it out, or furnish it and rent it out and it pays for itself. Not hard to do at all. Even if you just rent out Jan-April, it will cover your expenses easily. We bought a home for $245,000 closed in Jan of 2015. I could EASILY sell it for $310 to $320 today (bumped out Jasmine with a Golf Cart garage on a large lot). Of course, we bought 10 years early... :)

[westernrider75]

Is that 5-7% per year or for the total of the 6 years?

[dewilson58]

Is that 5-7% per year or for the total of the 6 years?


per year


look at a property on zillow and you can see the trend lines

[Toymeister]

Another factor not discussed is a likely increasing impact fee.

The impact fee is paid by the builder to the county and included in the home price, it will also be reflected in used homes as new homes are the competition. Currently it is artificially low due to shifting of the payment of the infrastructure bill (the purpose of the fee) to taxes. New commissioners will be elected which will correct that problem. Lowering taxes and increasing the fee.

[Stu from NYC]

Supply and demand more and more people want to come so prices go up with higher demand.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Is that 5-7% per year or for the total of the 6 years?

(320/245)^(1/6) = 1.0455 = 4.55%

However, the rate of increase may have something to do with retirement trends, tax rates and housing availability in TV and stock market asset accounts. Hard to disaggregate the effects, but if the trends continue, then 4% should be a minimum, with 5%-6% if labor inflation picks up, hardly likely. Labor inflation is different that product inflation.

sports guy

[JoMar]

Another factor not discussed is a likely increasing impact fee.

The impact fee is paid by the builder to the county and included in the home price, it will also be reflected in used homes as new homes are the competition. Currently it is artificially low due to shifting of the payment of the infrastructure bill (the purpose of the fee) to taxes. New commissioners will be elected which will correct that problem. Lowering taxes and increasing the fee.

I know you drank the Kool Aid but lets see how the new guys do when they understand the details.....you might be right but I choose to wait and see and not believe what political candidates promise.

[JohnN]

yes, the prices are going up. 5-7% per year is probably about right.

[Toymeister]

I know you drank the Kool Aid but lets see how the new guys do when they understand the details.....you might be right but I choose to wait and see and not believe what political candidates promise.

The men who won the Republican primary are of the highest character according to those who personally know them. The fact that the Morses' launched an all out attack against them is the clearest evidence of the Morses' fear that they will impact their ability to influence the county commissioners, some would say that the commissioners work for them. Wait, in fact the lame duck commissioners do run businesses dependent on the Morses.

Now it is unlikely that they will be be able to completely roll back the tax increase. However since they will hold the majority they are in a position to increase the impact fee.

[J1ceasar]

What details#? The budget jumped 50 million one year . 25%

[J1ceasar]

Easily avoided by. A more normal impact fee

[Rwirish]

Prices are going thru the roof

[ithos]

But for how long?

This from a Washington Post article:
Every day, 10,000 Americans reach the age of 65. (In 2024, that number will crest at about 12,000 a day.) And every year, fewer and fewer of them have traditional employer-sponsored pensions to support them. The system that was supposed to provide for them is shot through with holes.


I believe there will be a point when the supply will definitely outstrip demand. Other factors are that subsequent generations will not have the same level of retirement assets. Also it is quite clear that the expansion of The Villages will never stop until there are no longer any buyers.

Personally I plan on selling my home within the next 5 to 10 years. Maybe sooner if hyperinflation returns. Eventually massive budget deficits and exploding monetary expansion will force interest rates much higher.

[stadry]

if the prices are rising at that rate, evidently many homes are overpriced at the time of listing as there're many price reductions daily on zillow. our next door n-bor had thought our home would sell for $600K. he was very surprised when we said '$540K.'
it had been on market 74d thru tv real estate, not any Realtors.

if i were giving advice, it'd be buy now & rent. tax advantages are still good & your foot's in the door.

you also get a couple yrs to watch / evaluate mgmnt's direction & value offered for tv lifestyle.

remember, NOBODY cares about your $$ but YOU ! ! !

[chrissy2231]

My house increased nearly $59K in 4 years.

[dewilson58]

. New commissioners will be elected which will correct that problem. Lowering taxes and increasing the fee.


:1rotfl:
:1rotfl:
The commissh's elected are going to get an education.


I hope they do well, but lowering taxes of any significance??........:MOJE_whot:

[CoachKandSportsguy]

if the prices are rising at that rate, evidently many homes are overpriced at the time of listing as there're many price reductions daily on zillow.

if i were giving advice, it'd be buy now & rent. tax advantages are still good & your foot's in the door.

you also get a couple yrs to watch / evaluate mgmnt's direction & value offered for tv lifestyle.



I would second this advice, and that has been our strategy as well, with a fully paid house in New England, which is worth more than the mortgage in tv, we invested as a rental for now.

The other mistake to make is to assume that the house, in which you live, is considered an investment. Your house is not an investment, regardless of what marketing and sales will tell you. A house is an illiquid asset, but not an investment, unless you are renting it out collecting income

Sorry, But Your Home Isn't an 'Investment' - The Simple Dollar (https://www.thesimpledollar.com/investing/real-estate/sorry-but-your-home-isnt-a-good-investment/)

The word investment is used in a lot of different contexts and can mean a lot of different things. But from a purely financial perspective, this definition from the Merriam-Webster dictionary works well: “the outlay of money usually for income or profit.”

so from a cost to the purchaser point of view, house prices are currently rising faster than product inflation and with the expectation of slightly higher inflation, prices are predicted/expected to continue to rise at the current rate at a minimum

sports guy

[mydavid]

We were planning on buying in TV in about 2 years, but are tempted to do it now because of low interest rates and what appears to be prices increasing by about 5-7% annually. Are the prices consistently increasing? Probably most in a new build or newer preowned, The low interest rates give you more for your money, try to have your bond included in your mortgage or you will pay a much higher rate to have it included your property tax.

[KRM0614]

Actually no they’re not. If you buy new they gouge your but existing homes fell 1% value last month.
Don’t use citizens bank you can get better rates if you shop around, I would look around at otter communities a lot of what you saw here in the past won’t be operational after Covid. Don’t rush I did and regret moving here

[Velvet]

I would second this advice, and that has been our strategy as well, with a fully paid house in New England, which is worth more than the mortgage in tv, we invested as a rental for now.

The other mistake to make is to assume that the house, in which you live, is considered an investment. Your house is not an investment, regardless of what marketing and sales will tell you. A house is an illiquid asset, but not an investment, unless you are renting it out collecting income

Sorry, But Your Home Isn't an 'Investment' - The Simple Dollar (https://www.thesimpledollar.com/investing/real-estate/sorry-but-your-home-isnt-a-good-investment/)

The word investment is used in a lot of different contexts and can mean a lot of different things. But from a purely financial perspective, this definition from the Merriam-Webster dictionary works well: “the outlay of money usually for income or profit.”

so from a cost to the purchaser point of view, house prices are currently rising faster than product inflation and with the expectation of slightly higher inflation, prices are predicted/expected to continue to rise at the current rate at a minimum

sports guy

Depends on where you are. The homes in my area up north appreciated dramatically. My home sold for 540% more than what I bought it for while salaries during same period increased 82%. If you did not buy a home several years ago you not only can’t afford to buy one today unless you are in the top percentages of earners but would have difficulty even buying a 2 bedroom condo in this area. One of my best investments was buying property. Worked even better for Mr. Schwartz.

[vintageogauge]

Actually no they’re not. If you buy new they gouge your but existing homes fell 1% value last month.
Don’t use citizens bank you can get better rates if you shop around, I would look around at otter communities a lot of what you saw here in the past won’t be operational after Covid. Don’t rush I did and regret moving here

You are one of the very few with regrets, these homes are still selling like hot cakes even with Covid doing it's thing.

[stadry]

unless you move into a 'fixer-upper', update it, sell, & move into another fixer-upper' as a regular biz plan, personal homes should not be considered income producing,,, while there are some who live this lifestyle, generally agree our homes are not investment properties

[Dust Bunny]

Buy now inflation is coming! It is a result of the Fed's printing all that money for the bail out.

[Becca9800]

Same. We've been looking since Jan 2019 with intention to buy in Summer 2021. With costs going up (I've watched it real-time) and interest rates so low, we bought and will close the deal at the end of this month.

[Gulfcoast]

Prices seem to be going up in Florida, in general. It's almost as if people are fleeing here and I'm only exaggerating a teeny bit when I say that. We currently live in Florida so I anticipate that our current home will increase in value relative to the increase seen in TV. I don't feel rushed into buying right now.

[dzine]

yes, the prices are going up. 5-7% per year is probably about right.

After 9 years here, I do remember joyously watching prices rise the first 3-4 years. However, then there were 2 years where they fell drastically. Don't forget the laws of real estate ownership. We are not immune.
In fact, there was a time during last big RE recession when many subcontractors went bust due to Villages fall in sales. All depends on how many years you have.

And many here say it is hard to break even on rentals due to the overhead. Bond + interest, ammentity fees, insurance, re tax increases, lawn/ landscape/ pest control fees. About $1000 with utilities/ irrigation on top of mortgage.

[melpetezrinski]

"The other mistake to make is to assume that the house, in which you live, is considered an investment. Your house is not an investment, regardless of what marketing and sales will tell you. A house is an illiquid asset, but not an investment, unless you are renting it out collecting income"

I wouldn't be too sure about that statement.


"The word investment is used in a lot of different contexts and can mean a lot of different things. But from a purely financial perspective, this definition from the Merriam-Webster dictionary works well: “the outlay of money usually for income or profit.”

Exactly! Take your expenses related to your house (insurance, property taxes, amenity fees, water, sewer, irrigation, garbage, electric, gas, etc.) and see if that exceeds a 5-7% return on the value of your home. Mine doesn't and it isn't even close, so for me and probably many others, a house IS an investment. It might not be a wise, financial investment but a house CAN be an investment by definition.

[Velvet]

You can borrow against home equity, as a last resort. I find that in general if you buy in a desirable area (location, location, location) and with an increasing demographic for that area, the prices have to increase in the long run.

[Packer Fan]

But for how long?

This from a Washington Post article:
Every day, 10,000 Americans reach the age of 65. (In 2024, that number will crest at about 12,000 a day.) And every year, fewer and fewer of them have traditional employer-sponsored pensions to support them. The system that was supposed to provide for them is shot through with holes.


I believe there will be a point when the supply will definitely outstrip demand. Other factors are that subsequent generations will not have the same level of retirement assets. Also it is quite clear that the expansion of The Villages will never stop until there are no longer any buyers.

Personally I plan on selling my home within the next 5 to 10 years. Maybe sooner if hyperinflation returns. Eventually massive budget deficits and exploding monetary expansion will force interest rates much higher.


Typical Washington Post baloney and fearmongering about the retirement "Crisis". I was born in 1963, lots of my friends don't have Pensions, but they have HUGE 401k balances, Like 10 times our parents savings. Many are buying annuities to provide pension type income with some of it. Yes, in 20 years there will be less people retiring, but that is a long tail, and there will always be those with plenty of money.

[STLRAY]

Can TV home prices continue to rise at double the rate of income growth for much longer? With the youngest of the boomers about to retire and the oldest of the boomers reaching the age of their average life expectancy will demand decline enough to slow the rate of price appreciation?

[vintageogauge]

Can TV home prices continue to rise at double the rate of income growth for much longer? With the youngest of the boomers about to retire and the oldest of the boomers reaching the age of their average life expectancy will demand decline enough to slow the rate of price appreciation?

The oldest boomers are 74 like me and I sure as heck hope I haven't reached life expectancy. I thought I had a few more decades left.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Can TV home prices continue to rise at double the rate of income growth for much longer? With the youngest of the boomers about to retire and the oldest of the boomers reaching the age of their average life expectancy will demand decline enough to slow the rate of price appreciation?

yes they can. Because TV is a small regional pocket, and not the national average(s). There are many factors which can cause a local / regional difference, climate, taxes, security, demographics to name a few. The question should not relate to income growth, because mostly retired people not buying with income money, as a generalization. So your correlation is not really relevant, both in stock to flow and regional vs nation.

sportsguy

[Timothyimitchell]

I hope they keep increasing for everyone. I don't think they will. Lots of homes for sale on TV website. Lots of new homes being held back from the market by the villages. Combine that with quite a few more homes in the MLS, I think there are over 300 listed currently. Used to be right at 200, consistently. The real estate market is all supply and demand. Right now, supply exceeds demand. And I dont think it's close.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

We were planning on buying in TV in about 2 years, but are tempted to do it now because of low interest rates and what appears to be prices increasing by about 5-7% annually. Are the prices consistently increasing? Probably most in a new build or newer preowned,

My understanding is that property values in The Villages have either increased or stayed the same annually since 1985. They have never gone down. The best time to buy here is always now.