Yesterday's rally and the virus

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Regarding the visit yesterday with an estimated 10,000 attendees: it will be an interesting test of how prevalent and contagious the virus really is. Presumably, the majority of attendees are from the Villages, so if there’s a sudden spike in positivity rates 2-14 days from now, it’ll be logical to trace it to yesterday’s event.

The potential good news, for me anyway, is if there is NO such spike, it could confirm that our fear of this virus just may be overblown, at least when it comes to being in crowds outdoors. An interesting experiment that I hope we're all watching.

[graciegirl]

Regarding the visit yesterday with an estimated 10,000 attendees: it will be an interesting test of how prevalent and contagious the virus really is. Presumably, the majority of attendees are from the Villages, so if there’s a sudden spike in positivity rates 2-14 days from now, it’ll be logical to trace it to yesterday’s event.

The potential good news, for me anyway, is if there is NO such spike, it could confirm that our fear of this virus just may be overblown, at least when it comes to being in crowds outdoors. An interesting experiment that I hope we're all watching.

I have heard from several sources that it was many more than ten thousand.

[Marathon Man]

Regarding the visit yesterday with an estimated 10,000 attendees: it will be an interesting test of how prevalent and contagious the virus really is. Presumably, the majority of attendees are from the Villages, so if there’s a sudden spike in positivity rates 2-14 days from now, it’ll be logical to trace it to yesterday’s event.

The potential good news, for me anyway, is if there is NO such spike, it could confirm that our fear of this virus just may be overblown, at least when it comes to being in crowds outdoors. An interesting experiment that I hope we're all watching.

Or, it could mean that no one attending the rally carried the virus.

[GoPacers]

Or, it could mean that no one attending the rally carried the virus.

Now there you go again, injecting logic in an emotional argument...

You are 100% correct though.

[Altavia]

Regarding the visit yesterday with an estimated 10,000 attendees: it will be an interesting test of how prevalent and contagious the virus really is. Presumably, the majority of attendees are from the Villages, so if there’s a sudden spike in positivity rates 2-14 days from now, it’ll be logical to trace it to yesterday’s event.

The potential good news, for me anyway, is if there is NO such spike, it could confirm that our fear of this virus just may be overblown, at least when it comes to being in crowds outdoors. An interesting experiment that I hope we're all watching.

Many attendees were from outside the Villages.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

My comments stand on either side of the IFS.

Very very shallow and rigid parameters to make such a claim either way

No claims were made, Bucco! Only a readiness to observe the outcome. There may or may not be a spike. It's way too early to tell. Nobody's making any claims. Not sure why you're being so critical. My only "claim" is that this could be an interesting epidemiological experiment, wholly objective, as experiments are.

Again, my hypothesis is predicated on the majority of attendees of yesterday's event being from the Villages. That's what WOULD make this assembly different from other rallies and demonstrations. From what I understand, attendees of political rallies and demonstrations are typically not all from one clearly defined local area like the Villages.

I admit I may be wrong in thinking most of yesterday's attendees were from the Villages, in which case it would not be possible to draw a conclusion about the prevalence or transmissibility of the virus. Full disclosure.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Or, it could mean that no one attending the rally carried the virus.

Yes, perhaps. But according to the FL Department of Health (Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)), the statewide positivity rate is about 4%. I agree it would be great if nobody in the crowd yesterday was positive, but wouldn't you say it's against the odds?

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Yes, perhaps. But according to the FL Department of Health (Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak (https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/)), the statewide positivity rate is about 4%. I agree it would be great if nobody in the crowd yesterday was positive, but wouldn't you say it's against the odds?

Yeah if it's 10,000 people (supposedly there might have been more but let's just stick with the nice round number)...

and even if the ACTUAL rate is 2% and the 4% is overblown (which some people like to claim, so let's roll with it)...

Then that'd be 2 out of every 100 people testing positive. So that'd be 20 out of every 1000, and 200 out of every 10,000.

So you'd be looking at around 200 people testing positive for the coronavirus at that rally of 10,000 people.

And those 200 people are now all clumped together with 9,800 of their closest friends, happily spreading the virus to 2% of 9,800 people. And THOSE 196 people (2% of 9,800) are now spreading it to ... and you can do the math.

Suffice it to say, at the end of the month, you're looking at another 1000 or more people who WOULD test positive for the coronavirus, IF they got tested. But since many don't show any symptoms, they might not bother getting tested. Instead, they'll spread it to the next batch of 10,000 people, who will spread it to the next batch of 9,800 people, and so on, and so on.

This is how, and why, there are spikes in the virus positivity rates again.

[Mrprez]

Yeah if it's 10,000 people (supposedly there might have been more but let's just stick with the nice round number)...

and even if the ACTUAL rate is 2% and the 4% is overblown (which some people like to claim, so let's roll with it)...

Then that'd be 2 out of every 100 people testing positive. So that'd be 20 out of every 1000, and 200 out of every 10,000.

So you'd be looking at around 200 people testing positive for the coronavirus at that rally of 10,000 people.

And those 200 people are now all clumped together with 9,800 of their closest friends, happily spreading the virus to 2% of 9,800 people. And THOSE 196 people (2% of 9,800) are now spreading it to ... and you can do the math.

Suffice it to say, at the end of the month, you're looking at another 1000 or more people who WOULD test positive for the coronavirus, IF they got tested. But since many don't show any symptoms, they might not bother getting tested. Instead, they'll spread it to the next batch of 10,000 people, who will spread it to the next batch of 9,800 people, and so on, and so on.

This is how, and why, there are spikes in the virus positivity rates again.
You are assuming that nobody was wearing a mask. That wasn’t the case.

[coffeebean]

I have heard from several sources that it was many more than ten thousand.
I have heard our president say (from his own mouth) that he has had crowds of 30,000 to 40,000 people attending his rallies (that have been staged on tarmacs at airports). Those crowds don't look anywhere near that size. I wonder if he is adding a zero where it shouldn't be.

[EdFNJ]

A few days old but relevant to this topic: LINK: Trump’s campaign made stops nationwide. Then coronavirus cases surged. (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/10/22/trumps-campaign-made-stops-nationwide-then-coronavirus-cases-surged/3679534001/)

[EdFNJ]

I have heard our president say (from his own mouth) that he has had crowds of 30,000 to 40,000 people attending his rallies (that have been staged on tarmacs at airports). Those crowds don't look anywhere near that size. I wonder if he is adding a zero where it shouldn't be. Not possible .... he counted them all.
Fact check: Photo claiming to show large Trump rally in [Ocala] Florida is of Swiss music festival.

LINK: Fact check: Viral image is Swiss festival, not Trump rally in Florida (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/21/fact-check-viral-image-swiss-festival-not-trump-rally-florida/3704618001/)
A reverse Google image search reveals that the photo is actually from a music festival called "Street Parade" in Switzerland.
The original photo was taken in 2018 at a Zurich lake, according to Street Parade's website, where similar bird's-eye photos of the event are available.

[coffeebean]

Yeah if it's 10,000 people (supposedly there might have been more but let's just stick with the nice round number)...

and even if the ACTUAL rate is 2% and the 4% is overblown (which some people like to claim, so let's roll with it)...

Then that'd be 2 out of every 100 people testing positive. So that'd be 20 out of every 1000, and 200 out of every 10,000.

So you'd be looking at around 200 people testing positive for the coronavirus at that rally of 10,000 people.

And those 200 people are now all clumped together with 9,800 of their closest friends, happily spreading the virus to 2% of 9,800 people. And THOSE 196 people (2% of 9,800) are now spreading it to ... and you can do the math.

Suffice it to say, at the end of the month, you're looking at another 1000 or more people who WOULD test positive for the coronavirus, IF they got tested. But since many don't show any symptoms, they might not bother getting tested. Instead, they'll spread it to the next batch of 10,000 people, who will spread it to the next batch of 9,800 people, and so on, and so on.

This is how, and why, there are spikes in the virus positivity rates again.

I get it. It's like a pyramid scheme. Unfortunately, there are those that do not understand your point and have no clue how this virus spread is a numbers game. I wish to hell I was clueless like that! Then I could go out and enjoy life without worrying about wearing a mask and no worries about social distancing.

Oh, to live a pre-Covid life again. Ahhhhhhh. But alas. I do get the numbers game. Damn!!!!

[Villagevip]

But, but they took our temps for the plandemic, as we went though the security gates....So there is no reason, to clutch your pearls..

[Mulliganguy]

You can bet that even if there’s negligible new cases that the media will blow it up to make it sound much worth.

[SacDQ]

Based on your assumption and the length of time since Covid-19 was identified how much time does the human race have left?

[Scott O]

We attended Mike Pence’s Rally a couple of weeks ago and they all said the same negative things! Well what do you know, there was no spike or significant change! The people who have watched the fake news that does nothing but continue to focus on the CCP and terrorize those who want to be! We know the ones who are choosing to wear the masks for continued virtue signaling and trying to claim they are the good boys and girls. The rest of us want to move on with our lives, turn the TV OFF and quit being controlled!! If you are worried stay home or put your gear on or whatever makes you feel better and move on...quit fixating...

[Hiltongrizz11]

Or it could affirm findings that how they (CDC/WHO) thought the virus spread is incorrect.

But then that means questioning the government and it's motives and we can't do that now can we?

[Rosebud1949]

So far your experiment failed 225,000 or more deaths. Why add to them with close contact rallies, travelling from state to state. Dicing with death in some cases. Not for those who are sensible, and fighting to stay healthy and alive.

Regarding the visit yesterday with an estimated 10,000 attendees: it will be an interesting test of how prevalent and contagious the virus really is. Presumably, the majority of attendees are from the Villages, so if there’s a sudden spike in positivity rates 2-14 days from now, it’ll be logical to trace it to yesterday’s event.

The potential good news, for me anyway, is if there is NO such spike, it could confirm that our fear of this virus just may be overblown, at least when it comes to being in crowds outdoors. An interesting experiment that I hope we're all watching.

[billyb1950]

I have heard our president say (from his own mouth) that he has had crowds of 30,000 to 40,000 people attending his rallies (that have been staged on tarmacs at airports). Those crowds don't look anywhere near that size. I wonder if he is adding a zero where it shouldn't be.

When he mentions the estimated attendance, it includes those within the ropes and those outside the ropes. Straight from his mouth.