Covid Vaccine Distribution

[JimJohnson]

I agree with first responders and medical personnel being first to get the vaccine.
The indication is now for the elderly to be second in line. I firmly disagree.
If you are retired, you have the ability to stay in quarantine. Give the vaccine to those out in the public so they can work and continue to feed their families, pay the bills etc.. They also will help stop the spread when they become immune.
I’m in the elderly group and have a medical condition that makes me in the high death risk group. That said, we have millions of workers in need of the vaccine to save their homes and families.
We older retirees should be last..... Before you ask, YES, I will be happy to give my place in the vaccination line to a working person.

[Altavia]

Unlikely anyone will change behavior at this point. The immediate goal is to reduce hospitalizations which is much more likely in the elderly.

[davem4616]

doubtful that the folks that horde the toilet paper are gonna step aside...

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

doubtful that the folks that horde the toilet paper are gonna step aside...

When they ask me to get my vaccine I'll gladly suggest they give my shot to the woman at the supermarket check-out who is supporting two kids with her husband, who also works retail.

Or the teacher in the Charter school who brings her own kids into the store, all wearing masks, every week after school lets out that day for their weekly shopping.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Bringing the death rate down is important,thus the elderly and vulnerable first

[blueash]

NYC firefighters who have seen what COVID does were just surveyed about wanting the vaccine. More than half would refuse it at this time wanting more information. While caution is always a consideration I am shocked that 55% would refuse the shots (https://www.firehouse.com/safety-health/news/21165341/poll-more-than-half-of-fdny-firefighters-will-refuse-vaccine).

Wherever they are getting information needs to be doing a better job of explaining vaccines and how intensively the ones coming on line have been evaluated for short term risk vs benefit. This, like everything else in America, is going to get political. The "don't trust the government" groups are going to refuse to get shots, to mask, to social isolate and listen to people who ACTUALLY know what they are talking about, not conspiracy mongers and bald faced liars.

Skepticism about the vaccine also runs high among FDNY EMS members.

“A few are anxious to get it, but there have been a few dozen (online) responses saying, ‘Thanks, but no thanks,' ” Oren Barzilay, president of the Uniformed EMTs, Paramedics and Fire Inspectors union, told the Post. “They were thankful it was not mandatory, because they don’t want to be looked at as test subjects.”

Barzilay added that he would be waiting to see about what independent studies reveal concerning possible side effects before taking the vaccine.

One veteran FDNY member told the Post that the resistance toward the vaccine is a source of frustration.

“The 55 percent doesn’t surprise me. They’re called the Bravest, not the Smartest,” the FDNY member said.

Independent studies may be well over a year away, probably longer. Vaccine efficacy data is collected almost exclusively by the CDC, and if you don't trust the government and believe the CDC is a scam, then you'll never have a source you believe. There have been nearly 100,000 people in the three vaccine trials that have been reported and no serious side effects have been found.

[billethkid]

Most vulnerable is a reasonable plan.
Has more immediate impact on medical capabilities/supplies/resources with a positive impact on the death rate.

[blueash]

Having gotten that off my chest, I'd like to correct OP as to the order recommended by the ACIP (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/COVID-02-Dooling.pdf) to receive vaccines.

First: Health Care Workers and residents of Long term care facilities This is called the 1a group
Health care workers includes:
• Hospitals
• Long-term care facilities
• Outpatient clinics
• Home health care
• Pharmacies
• Emergency medical services
• Public health

Long term care residents includes:
Skilled nursing facilities (~1.3 M beds)
• Assisted living facilities (~0.8 M beds)
• Other residential care (~0.9 M beds)

Next is the 1b group:

Phase 1b
Essential workers
(examples: Education Sector, Food & Agriculture, Utilities,
Police, Firefighters, Corrections Officers, Transportation)

Then the next group
Phase1c
Adults with high -risk medical conditions
Adults 65+

If this recommendation is finalized then well elderly are in the third group. The 1a group is estimated to require 48 million doses [24 million people]. The linked report does not list the number of doses needed for the 1b group. Neither vaccine is yet approved but there will be some decision in the next two weeks. Production is already underway as is some effort at distribution to have vaccine nearer to the target recipients. Pfizer has recently announced that it is having problems producing (https://nypost.com/2020/12/03/pfizer-cuts-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-in-half-after-supply-chain-issues/)the number of doses it thought it could make. States have been told (https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/health/first-covid-vaccine-shipments-inadequate/index.html) to expect far fewer doses than they initially were expected to receive.

Don't expect any vaccine to be available to the well senior group until early spring if the ACIP sticks to its initial thoughts. It might be even later.

Get your flu shot if you haven't. So far it has been a mild flu season likely to some extent as a result of the masking and distancing being used by some people for Covid control.

[jacksonbrown]

I agree with first responders and medical personnel being first to get the vaccine.

Are you sure, making them the guinea pigs?

Maybe there is another category of individuals who are more "deserving".

[graciegirl]

I agree with first responders and medical personnel being first to get the vaccine.
The indication is now for the elderly to be second in line. I firmly disagree.
If you are retired, you have the ability to stay in quarantine. Give the vaccine to those out in the public so they can work and continue to feed their families, pay the bills etc.. They also will help stop the spread when they become immune.
I’m in the elderly group and have a medical condition that makes me in the high death risk group. That said, we have millions of workers in need of the vaccine to save their homes and families.
We older retirees should be last..... Before you ask, YES, I will be happy to give my place in the vaccination line to a working person.

When should is used in a sentence it is a sign of a personal value system.

It is a very laudable thing to do, and I applaud the reasoning.

I don't know how it will work out, but I plan to take the offer when the invitation is extended to me. They chose the elderly because a higher percentage get very sick and die. I don't know if you are "elderly", the name rankles me. lol. but I know that taking the shot takes you off the possibility list of getting and giving that ornery virus. I also know that you probably have descendants who care deeply after your safety, and probably want to come and see you and hug you and hold your hands and bring you surprises.

I think most people are trying to do the right thing. I believe that a very small percentage of humans are selfish. I give the honor for the elderly's collective good character to the mothers who raised us and the fathers who applied logic and explanations and love and a lot of serious talking to's. I think my parents would want me to get the shot when it is offered. I know our grandchildren and children want us to take it and will be so relieved when we are immunized.

As I said. Mandates and value systems are useless to change another. I am counting on everyone being responsible and knocking this ******* virus to dead as a doornail.

Get the vaccine. As soon as you can.

Please.

[amexsbow]

Funny how the bureaucrats are holding up the vaccine here and the Brits start issuing shots tomorrow.

[Neils]

I agree with first responders and medical personnel being first to get the vaccine.

Are you sure, making them the guinea pigs?

Maybe there is another category of individuals who are more "deserving".

No worries. There is a group with higher priority than 1a. Those are the politicians and their staff members. You can bet that they will all “quietly” be vaccinated before Christmas.

[blueash]

I agree with first responders and medical personnel being first to get the vaccine.

Are you sure, making them the guinea pigs?

Maybe there is another category of individuals who are more "deserving".

It didn't take long for a posting of this type. The "guinea pigs" were the 100,000 people who volunteered to participate in the vaccine trials. The CDC and the ACIP will not release the vaccine without well done efficacy and safety studies. The studies will not be perfect nor will they be beyond scientific scrutiny and criticism. Risk will be balanced against benefit. Science will be applied and evidence based.

Consensus will be sought and differing opinions will be heard and not suppressed. This is how the system works. Conspiracy theories will get all the respect they deserve. Real evidence backed by real data will be vetted. The earth is round, it goes around the sun and the US really did land on the moon.

[graciegirl]

I agree with first responders and medical personnel being first to get the vaccine.

Are you sure, making them the guinea pigs?

Maybe there is another category of individuals who are more "deserving".

I AM SO UPSET BY THIS Post.

Thousands and thousands and thousands of people have been used in the trials. 70,000 sticks in my mind for either Pfizer or Moderna. Trials were stopped twice with issues and they resumed carefully monitored.

READ THE SCIENCE and not the rhetoric and propaganda. Seek the answers from valid sources.

And no one will force anyone to take the shot.

The vaccine to protect us against the brand new Corona Virus called Covid-19 I consider safe and highly effective. (above 90% from two of the three front runners) It has been noted that we may be sore and have a fever and very tired for a few days, but it passes. One vaccine is a series of two, and I worry about a lot of people taking the second one.....knowing people as I do.

I am so relieved that the vaccine has been researched, and checked and tested and is now available. I cannot wait to hold out my upper arm.

[John41]

I agree with first responders and medical personnel being first to get the vaccine.
The indication is now for the elderly to be second in line. I firmly disagree.
If you are retired, you have the ability to stay in quarantine. Give the vaccine to those out in the public so they can work and continue to feed their families, pay the bills etc.. They also will help stop the spread when they become immune.
I’m in the elderly group and have a medical condition that makes me in the high death risk group. That said, we have millions of workers in need of the vaccine to save their homes and families.
We older retirees should be last..... Before you ask, YES, I will be happy to give my place in the vaccination line to a working person.

I think the first to get the vaccine will be the next, present and some past presidents on television to boost confidence. I agree frontline workers should be the first, those in nursing homes and medical facilities and then seniors ( prefer that term to elderly which has negative connotations). We will get the vaccine as soon as possible. Overall, I think Villagers have done a good job wearing masks and social distancing, but eager for clubs to resume as normal.

[tophcfa]

I am very concerned that the vaccine is not going to be what we are hoping for. When the CEO of Moderna was asked how long the vaccine would provide protection against Covid infection, he said they were not sure, but their expectation is for only three months after receiving the second dose. I found that to be rather discouraging, perhaps I am missing something?

[tvbound]

I completely agree with those who are on the front lines (medical personnel, first responder's), many who are at their breaking point, getting the vaccine first. Although I am in the "elderly" group that are toward the front of the line to get it next, I hope that changes and I will happily step aside so that those who have been deemed "essential" and have continued working to make it easier for me to stay safe at home (store and retail workers, delivery people, mass transportation workers, etc.) - regardless of age.

Those of us who have been fortunate enough to be able to basically stay out of harm's way, but are simply upset that "life isn't normal, therefore I should be able to get the vaccine so that I can get back to doing what I want," are being very selfish in my honest opinion. There is absolutely no comparison, regarding those who have simply been inconvenienced, to so many others (often working at lower paying jobs) and don't have the luxury of becoming bored by staying home. Along with our healthcare workers and first responders, these people who have seen an out-sized percentage of their demographic affected by this pandemic - are the real heroes.

As for those who are conspiracy driven, or gullible (about a lot of things), in the big picture it might be a benefit that you've chosen not to get the vaccine - as that means more for those who do want and need it.

[JimJohnson]

When should is used in a sentence it is a sign of a personal value system.

It is a very laudable thing to do, and I applaud the reasoning.

I don't know how it will work out, but I plan to take the offer when the invitation is extended to me. They chose the elderly because a higher percentage get very sick and die. I don't know if you are "elderly", the name rankles me. lol. but I know that taking the shot takes you off the possibility list of getting and giving that ornery virus. I also know that you probably have descendants who care deeply after your safety, and probably want to come and see you and hug you and hold your hands and bring you surprises.

I think most people are trying to do the right thing. I believe that a very small percentage of humans are selfish. I give the honor for the elderly's collective good character to the mothers who raised us and the fathers who applied logic and explanations and love and a lot of serious talking to's. I think my parents would want me to get the shot when it is offered. I know our grandchildren and children want us to take it and will be so relieved when we are immunized.

As I said. Mandates and value systems are useless to change another. I am counting on everyone being responsible and knocking this ******* virus to dead as a doornail.

Get the vaccine. As soon as you can.

Please.


I’m sorry my name rankles you; however, due to a dolt it is what it is, or are you referring to elderly? In any event, I plan to start a band here in The Villages called the Elderly Brothers, hence I’m getting the name in the minds of possible patrons.

[Stu from NYC]

When our turn comes we will take the vaccine.

For the process to work it must flow as simply as possible. Just because someone defers taking it does not mean that your idea of a more worthy person gets it immediately

[graciegirl]

I’m sorry my name rankles you; however, due to a dolt it is what it is, or are you referring to elderly? In any event, I plan to start a band here in The Villages called the Elderly Brothers, hence I’m getting the name in the minds of possible patrons.

Your name is Elderly?

You play drums don't you?

[jimjamuser]

NYC firefighters who have seen what COVID does were just surveyed about wanting the vaccine. More than half would refuse it at this time wanting more information. While caution is always a consideration I am shocked that 55% would refuse the shots (https://www.firehouse.com/safety-health/news/21165341/poll-more-than-half-of-fdny-firefighters-will-refuse-vaccine).

Wherever they are getting information needs to be doing a better job of explaining vaccines and how intensively the ones coming on line have been evaluated for short term risk vs benefit. This, like everything else in America, is going to get political. The "don't trust the government" groups are going to refuse to get shots, to mask, to social isolate and listen to people who ACTUALLY know what they are talking about, not conspiracy mongers and bald faced liars.



Independent studies may be well over a year away, probably longer. Vaccine efficacy data is collected almost exclusively by the CDC, and if you don't trust the government and believe the CDC is a scam, then you'll never have a source you believe. There have been nearly 100,000 people in the three vaccine trials that have been reported and no serious side effects have been found.
Unfortunately, we are in a period of "Truth Decay" from which we are spiraling out of control. AND we may NEVER spiral back into control.

[JimJohnson]

Your name is Elderly?

You play drums don't you?

I’m not entirely sure due to my advanced years, but then, What’s in a name? I hope you can remember me for who I am and not for what I am called.

[jimjamuser]

Having gotten that off my chest, I'd like to correct OP as to the order recommended by the ACIP (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/COVID-02-Dooling.pdf) to receive vaccines.

First: Health Care Workers and residents of Long term care facilities This is called the 1a group
Health care workers includes:
• Hospitals
• Long-term care facilities
• Outpatient clinics
• Home health care
• Pharmacies
• Emergency medical services
• Public health

Long term care residents includes:
Skilled nursing facilities (~1.3 M beds)
• Assisted living facilities (~0.8 M beds)
• Other residential care (~0.9 M beds)

Next is the 1b group:

Phase 1b
Essential workers
(examples: Education Sector, Food & Agriculture, Utilities,
Police, Firefighters, Corrections Officers, Transportation)

Then the next group
Phase1c
Adults with high -risk medical conditions
Adults 65+

If this recommendation is finalized then well elderly are in the third group. The 1a group is estimated to require 48 million doses [24 million people]. The linked report does not list the number of doses needed for the 1b group. Neither vaccine is yet approved but there will be some decision in the next two weeks. Production is already underway as is some effort at distribution to have vaccine nearer to the target recipients. Pfizer has recently announced that it is having problems producing (https://nypost.com/2020/12/03/pfizer-cuts-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-in-half-after-supply-chain-issues/)the number of doses it thought it could make. States have been told (https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/health/first-covid-vaccine-shipments-inadequate/index.html) to expect far fewer doses than they initially were expected to receive.

Don't expect any vaccine to be available to the well senior group until early spring if the ACIP sticks to its initial thoughts. It might be even later.

Get your flu shot if you haven't. So far it has been a mild flu season likely to some extent as a result of the masking and distancing being used by some people for Covid control.
Great post, by the way! Long-term care facilities personnel and residents SHOULD be among those 1st vaccinated - because they are indoor "super spreader" areas. They also need the money, being currently withheld by the Federal Government, to ensure that they have the HVAC capacity to turn over the air frequently and create negative air pressure.

[Byte1]

Just my opinion right now, and that could change given new information, but I believe that the vaccine should go to those that are most vulnerable. What I mean is that if hospitalization and death occurs in a certain age group, I believe they should get it first. Since it hardly effects children, I would suggest that they be given it as soon as possible after those most vulnerable down to the least vulnerable. I realize that there are those that may be in contact with infected also, and I believe they should be in the upper tier when it comes to priority. That said, there are exceptions to any rule. I believe that we all should relax and just take it when offered. Personally, since I have a great immune system I would give my vaccine to my spouse. And since I do not allow panic and hysteria rule my life (what's left of it) I do not see the point of speculation or even demanding. On the one hand, I hear those that don't trust the vaccine and on the other hand I hear those that are demanding their place in line. And some of them are in both categories. The only reason I care about the vaccine is so that we can hear the last of this mandatory mask mandate that so many screamers demand. I wish to live life normally without having to pretend that I care about wearing masks to satisfy others.
Remember, the vaccine dosage count is not limited to 50 million doses. They will be steadily manufacturing, producing and shipping thousands of doses a day the whole time the vaccinations are being distributed. If you don't get in on the first wave of vaccinations, wait a bit and it will be first come first served before you know it. And does it really matter which version of it you get? After all, the results of these vaccines have tested better than any of our Flu vaccines that usually average between 40-60% effective. These are in the 90's% effective.
No reason to argue over who deserves the vaccine first. You'll get your turn at bat.

[jimjamuser]

Funny how the bureaucrats are holding up the vaccine here and the Brits start issuing shots tomorrow.
The US Health and Human Services is the standard of the World. The British are very good also. They take a only SLIGHTLY different approach to the same problem. What's your hurry? The ordinary American citizen is expected to get a vaccine by June. Personally, I think that it will be more like Dec. 2021. Already we are seeing glitches. NOTHING in life goes as quickly as planned. Does it in your life?

[jimjamuser]

No worries. There is a group with higher priority than 1a. Those are the politicians and their staff members. You can bet that they will all “quietly” be vaccinated before Christmas.
Agreed, good post.

[jimjamuser]

No worries. There is a group with higher priority than 1a. Those are the politicians and their staff members. You can bet that they will all “quietly” be vaccinated before Christmas.
Also, we peons will Not be getting Regeneron when we get CV.

[jimjamuser]

I’m sorry my name rankles you; however, due to a dolt it is what it is, or are you referring to elderly? In any event, I plan to start a band here in The Villages called the Elderly Brothers, hence I’m getting the name in the minds of possible patrons.
Great band name!

[Byte1]

I’m not entirely sure due to my advanced years, but then, What’s in a name? I hope you can remember me for who I am and not for what I am called.

Probably better than being called Jim Jones. :1rotfl:

[blueash]

I am very concerned that the vaccine is not going to be what we are hoping for. When the CEO of Moderna was asked how long the vaccine would provide protection against Covid infection, he said they were not sure, but their expectation is for only three months after receiving the second dose. I found that to be rather discouraging, perhaps I am missing something?

Perhaps you could provide a link to where you got this information about what the CEO of Moderna said as I can't find it. I suspect your statement is wrong. I suspect the CEO said the duration of protection is unknown which is obvious as they have only given it to test participants a few months ago so it is impossible to know if it lasts six months or 6 years. I suspect the CEO said they had good evidence of three months protection after the second shot NOT that they expected it to stop being effective at that time. So your source please?

[asianthree]

Sorry coming from the front line, any essential workers need to be first.

Retired do not have a family to support, can shelter in place, and their income comes every month no matter what.

Those who can’t put food on their table, and their children are going hungry because of no income, or are working, taking risk, should be first.

I also believe we need to get the education system back to normal, so they should come next.

I stepped out of the first responders, so will gladly wait until the last or bypass altogether. To ensure those who are on the front lines come first.

But there are some who will say ME first, because I am special.

[billethkid]

By stepping aside it is a false notion someone else will come first (or sooner).
Noble idea but that is not how it works.
When one steps aside all there is, is one less in the line of the then current group.....all others will follow by their category....whether anybody steps aside or not.

[asianthree]

By stepping aside it is a false notion someone else will come first (or sooner).
Noble idea but that is not how it works.
When one steps aside all there is, is one less in the line of the then current group.....all others will follow by their category....whether anybody steps aside or not.

I have the ability to be vaccinated the day it arrives.I am #57 of 980. Everyone in our fishbowl will be vaccinated within 2 hours. But I am anaphylactic to the flu vaccine, I will not be in any category for my own well-being.
Plus being exposed to actual patients who were positive for 5 months, 16 hour days, 7 days a week, gives you a different perspective, than the general population. I actually know how many hours I was exposed, sometimes with less PPE than one should expect.
So no false notion, # 58 get the vaccine even if the don’t want it, or fired on the spot.

[Velvet]

In my opinion, the initial vaccine supply should be offered to those who are the most vulnerable. Health care workers who are always being exposed, and those who will most likely die from the virus. The factors associated with death have been studied, the most vulnerable can be identified. They need it first because that is where we will get the biggest bang for our investment. Each life is worth saving. Especially since we are talking only about a few months or so until anyone will be able to get it.

[tophcfa]

Perhaps you could provide a link to where you got this information about what the CEO of Moderna said as I can't find it. I suspect your statement is wrong. I suspect the CEO said the duration of protection is unknown which is obvious as they have only given it to test participants a few months ago so it is impossible to know if it lasts six months or 6 years. I suspect the CEO said they had good evidence of three months protection after the second shot NOT that they expected it to stop being effective at that time. So your source please?

I heard it from the news anchor while watching the 5:00 news on NBC. I am certain of what the news anchor said. I don't have a link that I can provide you. I try not to get my news from the internet, I don't trust the news sources.

[stanley]

I heard it from the news anchor while watching the 5:00 news on NBC. I am certain of what the news anchor said. I don't have a link that I can provide you. I try not to get my news from the internet, I don't trust the news sources.

Funny

[jaj523]

The internet! Are you kidding me? And I don't trust television news either. i try to go to the original sources. CDC, etc.

[JimJohnson]

Sorry coming from the front line, any essential workers need to be first.

Retired do not have a family to support, can shelter in place, and their income comes every month no matter what.

Those who can’t put food on their table, and their children are going hungry because of no income, or are working, taking risk, should be first.

I also believe we need to get the education system back to normal, so they should come next.

I stepped out of the first responders, so will gladly wait until the last or bypass altogether. To ensure those who are on the front lines come first.

But there are some who will say ME first, because I am special.

:bigbow:

[biker1]

We have lockdowns because the coronavirus picks on those who are elderly and/or have serious health issues and we are trying to protect them. If you vaccinate that group first then the motivation for lockdowns is removed. Also, less than 20% of the population is 65 or over (the vulnerable) - it is easier to vaccinate them because the relative numbers are small. Contracting the coronavirus has few consequences for those who are healthy and under the age of 50. Vaccinating healthcare workers is also a priority for the obvious reasons. The CDC guidelines on who should be vaccinated first is pretty much in line with what Florida has announced.

Sorry coming from the front line, any essential workers need to be first.

Retired do not have a family to support, can shelter in place, and their income comes every month no matter what.

Those who can’t put food on their table, and their children are going hungry because of no income, or are working, taking risk, should be first.

I also believe we need to get the education system back to normal, so they should come next.

I stepped out of the first responders, so will gladly wait until the last or bypass altogether. To ensure those who are on the front lines come first.

But there are some who will say ME first, because I am special.

[graciegirl]

I heard it from the news anchor while watching the 5:00 news on NBC. I am certain of what the news anchor said. I don't have a link that I can provide you. I try not to get my news from the internet, I don't trust the news sources.

CNBC interview of CEO of Moderna on November 30.

Interview with Stephane Bancel - Bing video (https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Interview+with+Stephane+Bancel&docid=608037330870996936&mid=D84F0A2879BAB2A864EAD84F0A2879BAB2A864EA&view=detail&FORM=VIRE)

[l2ridehd]

I have looked at several of these plans for distribution and none are perfect. I will follow what ever Florida decides. I hope health care workers are first. There are several groups that make sense for second. I have reviewed one state plan that shows prisons are second. That one I disagree with. Yes they are more vulnerable, but most are young and in good health. My vote for second would be teachers, essential workers and then those that touch the general population like store clerks and restaurant employees. The elderly probably should be 3rd to lower the strain on health care facilities. But as stated I will follow what ever this state decides.

It doesn’t matter how they setup the sequence someone will complain about it.

[jimjamuser]

Sorry coming from the front line, any essential workers need to be first.

Retired do not have a family to support, can shelter in place, and their income comes every month no matter what.

Those who can’t put food on their table, and their children are going hungry because of no income, or are working, taking risk, should be first.

I also believe we need to get the education system back to normal, so they should come next.

I stepped out of the first responders, so will gladly wait until the last or bypass altogether. To ensure those who are on the front lines come first.

But there are some who will say ME first, because I am special.
As far as the education system goes in that post.........there are a lot of background facts missing. Namely, since there has been ZERO research YET on the effects of the vaccine on young children - CHILDREN are NOT getting the vaccine until PROVEN SAFE for them!!!!! They are CURRENTLY cleared by Medical Science to go to school because they have a natural immunity (for a yet unknown reason) to COVID-19. It is the ADULT teachers, janitors, and security guards that are at RISK when schools open. Therefore, young school age children will be the LAST to need a vaccine!

[jimjamuser]

As far as the education system goes in that post.........there are a lot of background facts missing. Namely, since there has been ZERO research YET on the effects of the vaccine on young children - CHILDREN are NOT getting the vaccine until PROVEN SAFE for them!!!!! They are CURRENTLY cleared by Medical Science to go to school because they have a natural immunity (for a yet unknown reason) to COVID-19. It is the ADULT teachers, janitors, and security guards that are at RISK when schools open. Therefore, young school age children will be the LAST to need a vaccine!
There is also an extremely big, big, big fact that came out today. Last summer, Pfizer offered a 2nd batch of vaccines to the US Government, which DECLINED the offer. Then Europe bought them. So Pfizer may NOT have a 2nd batch available for the US until maybe (?) June. Pretty bad advanced planning by the US.

[John41]

There is also an extremely big, big, big fact that came out today. Last summer, Pfizer offered a 2nd batch of vaccines to the US Government, which DECLINED the offer. Then Europe bought them. So Pfizer may NOT have a 2nd batch available for the US until maybe (?) June. Pretty bad advanced planning by the US.

The US already had enough vaccine to vaccinate the most vulnerable by the target date of the end of 2020. That was the goal. So it shared the excess with Europe just as it did with the extra ventilators the US produced.

[jimjamuser]

The US already had enough vaccine to vaccinate the most vulnerable by the target date of the end of 2020. That was the goal. So it shared the excess with Europe just as it did with the extra ventilators the US produced.
As of last summer, it seemed likely the developed-in-Germany-Pfizer-to-be-distributed vaccine would LIKELY (?) be the 1st available to the US vaccine. The US also had 4 or 5 other US manufacturers with a vaccine, including J and J. The US leadership, apparently, wanted to diversify its sponsorship bets. But, it still, looking back, may have been a mistake to not put Pfizer under additional US contracts rather than allow Europe to outflank us and buy up Pfizer's 2nd batch. The whole 1st world was, and still is, in a bidding war for CV vaccine, even Canada has bid for many doses of ALL upcoming vaccines. The 3rd world is out of luck for a while - until less expensive vaccines are available.

Unfortunately, in a Global economy, there can be CV spread from 3rd world to 1st and back again.

[Velvet]

We are only as strong as our weakest link. As long as there are any people with Covid we are still in danger. It took just one person at a Wuhan market (if that is where this virus came from) one person on the other side of the globe, to result in 15 million infections and many, many deaths in the US. And Covid is not done yet!

[Velvet]

The reason why people sometimes retract what they wrote is because they may have thought better of their reply. Especially if they wrote in the heat of the moment.

Or, the reply is only relevant for a short time etc.

[jimjamuser]

We are only as strong as our weakest link. As long as there are any people with Covid we are still in danger. It took just one person at a Wuhan market (if that is where this virus came from) one person on the other side of the globe, to result in 15 million infections and many, many deaths in the US. And Covid is not done yet!
I agree. Progress makes the world a smaller place each year.

[jimjamuser]

There is a general problem with vaccine distribution in the US that will not be of the same magnitude of a problem as it will be in other countries like Australia and New Zealand. The US has a greater problem. The US has let its CV problem spread much more than other countries. We have the world's worse problem. WE are #1 in cases per 100,000 people.

Experts are using this analogy.......the CV vaccine availability is like giving a Fire Dept. a strong, capable fire hose, which is a good thing! They can quickly use that strong hose to put out a house fire. The problem comes up when they try to use it to fight a raging forest fire. Think of Australia as the house fire and the US as the ranging forest fire.

Basically, I believe that here in the US we have allowed our CV problem to grow too far. The vaccines will NOT be in enough quantity to quickly overcome our prior poor response to our CV problem. There are more problems going forward - distribution problems - staff to administer the shots - anti-vaccine forces - conspiracy theory propaganda and etc.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Florida has done one of the worst jobs at reducing the risk of the virus, which is why it was THE #1 hotspot shortly after a post I recall proclaimin "it's only 14 deaths" and remained in the top 5 hotspots in the country for months. Now, it's back to being a hotspot. We didn't tighten restrictions soon enough. We didn't keep them tight long enough. And, we didn't tighten them enough, when they were tightened.

The entire state of Florida should've had an indoor mask mandate, and limited outdoor restrictions, from the first month that we learned the virus came to this country.

I'm not about to put my life in the trust of the government that made those decisions. My right to health is more important than my freedom to not wear a mask. You might not feel your health is more important than my freedom to not wear a mask, but thankfully for you, I also have the freedom TO wear one.

[jimjamuser]

Florida has done one of the worst jobs at reducing the risk of the virus, which is why it was THE #1 hotspot shortly after a post I recall proclaimin "it's only 14 deaths" and remained in the top 5 hotspots in the country for months. Now, it's back to being a hotspot. We didn't tighten restrictions soon enough. We didn't keep them tight long enough. And, we didn't tighten them enough, when they were tightened.

The entire state of Florida should've had an indoor mask mandate, and limited outdoor restrictions, from the first month that we learned the virus came to this country.

I'm not about to put my life in the trust of the government that made those decisions. My right to health is more important than my freedom to not wear a mask. You might not feel your health is more important than my freedom to not wear a mask, but thankfully for you, I also have the freedom TO wear one.
We have never before in my lifetime needed strong Federal and State government and leadership than we do right now. Even the cold war days of the 50s and 60s it did NOT feel so up close and personal as this Plague today. TV Land has been spared and has gotten WAY more complacent than Miami or even Chicago, where they can FEEL the presence of deadly danger! I get called "chicken little" and pollyannish because I do not watch Factless News and absorb the propaganda of "act normal" and live the happy talk way. I will stubbornly try to express views that I think are good for humanity, even though I was never before a "do-gooder". I will morph into one during this period of stress and trauma.


If I am wrong and this is NOT a period of great stress and trauma, then OK, cool, I am not perfect. I have been wrong before. I have also been stubborn before!!!!!!!

[Velvet]

We have never before in my lifetime needed strong Federal and State government and leadership than we do right now. Even the cold war days of the 50s and 60s it did NOT feel so up close and personal as this Plague today. TV Land has been spared and has gotten WAY more complacent than Miami or even Chicago, where they can FEEL the presence of deadly danger! I get called "chicken little" and pollyannish because I do not watch Factless News and absorb the propaganda of "act normal" and live the happy talk way. I will stubbornly try to express views that I think are good for humanity, even though I was never before a "do-gooder". I will morph into one during this period of stress and trauma.


If I am wrong and this is NOT a period of great stress and trauma, then OK, cool, I am not perfect. I have been wrong before. I have also been stubborn before!!!!!!!

And, thank you for doing that.

[asianthree]

As far as the education system goes in that post.........there are a lot of background facts missing. Namely, since there has been ZERO research YET on the effects of the vaccine on young children - CHILDREN are NOT getting the vaccine until PROVEN SAFE for them!!!!! They are CURRENTLY cleared by Medical Science to go to school because they have a natural immunity (for a yet unknown reason) to COVID-19. It is the ADULT teachers, janitors, and security guards that are at RISK when schools open. Therefore, young school age children will be the LAST to need a vaccine!

Sorry I know I need to be more direct in my post. Higher education need to get back to classes. They are adults, their education is at a standstill with online classes. With zero hands on chemistry, and cadaver labs, to name a few, students are stagnant in their education.

[graciegirl]

Florida has done one of the worst jobs at reducing the risk of the virus, which is why it was THE #1 hotspot shortly after a post I recall proclaimin "it's only 14 deaths" and remained in the top 5 hotspots in the country for months. Now, it's back to being a hotspot. We didn't tighten restrictions soon enough. We didn't keep them tight long enough. And, we didn't tighten them enough, when they were tightened.

The entire state of Florida should've had an indoor mask mandate, and limited outdoor restrictions, from the first month that we learned the virus came to this country.

I'm not about to put my life in the trust of the government that made those decisions. My right to health is more important than my freedom to not wear a mask. You might not feel your health is more important than my freedom to not wear a mask, but thankfully for you, I also have the freedom TO wear one.

Florida is the third most populous State in the Union. California and Texas have greater population and the State of New York has less, but the State of New York has many more deaths.

As of today.
Deaths from Covid in Florida. 19,627
Deaths from Covid in New York. 34,637

[jimjamuser]

Sorry I know I need to be more direct in my post. Higher education need to get back to classes. They are adults, their education is at a standstill with online classes. With zero hands on chemistry, and cadaver labs, to name a few, students are stagnant in their education.
Yes definitely. We agree. Thank you!

[jimjamuser]

Florida is the third most populous State in the Union. California and Texas have greater population and the State of New York has less, but the State of New York has many more deaths.

As of today.
Deaths from Covid in Florida. 19,627
Deaths from Covid in New York. 34,637
NYC had more CV brought in from Europe when leadership was worried about China in the spring. Florida never had those problems. NY state reacted well ASAP. Florida never had a good reaction and blundered around like drunken sailors in their CV response! Completely apples and oranges (Florida oranges)

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Florida is the third most populous State in the Union. California and Texas have greater population and the State of New York has less, but the State of New York has many more deaths.

As of today.
Deaths from Covid in Florida. 19,627
Deaths from Covid in New York. 34,637

I'm not concerned -at all- about deaths. People die every day. People in the Villages are years closer to death than any other 70-square-mile patch in the country, on average, just by virtue of the fact that they're mostly seniors.

I'm concerned with people SURVIVING the sickness with life-long permanent lung and heart damage. I'm concerned with families suffering needlessly. I'm concerned with people not being allowed to say goodbye to those loved ones who are dying. I'm concerned - in short - with the LIVING.

I don't want to get sick, and survive, and end up having to carry around an air tank in my purse for the rest of my life. I don't want my husband to get sick, and be told his heart scarring is so bad that he'll never be able to play golf again.

I also don't want to have to spend my life inside my house, being afraid that some idiot with Covid who refuses to wear a mask or social distance is going to start coughing right when he passes me in the bread aisle at Walmart.

If you can't breathe when you wear a mask, then you shouldn't be out in public. You're WAY too sick to be in the presence of other people who aren't wearing THEIR masks.

If you can breathe when you wear a mask, then - wear a mask.

I know of ONE person who might be exempt - and that's someone with something horribly wrong with his nose, who probably wouldn't be able to endure the pain of having something touching it. Him, I have compassion for. Everyone else? Nope. Wear a mask. If you don't wear a mask, and you get sick, then my thoughts and prayers will be for whatever family or friends you have who tried to get you to wear a mask, to no avail.

[Two Bills]

The US already had enough vaccine to vaccinate the most vulnerable by the target date of the end of 2020. That was the goal. So it shared the excess with Europe just as it did with the extra ventilators the US produced.

The US shared nothing.
Europe ordered and paid for vaccine, from Phizer, just as they have orders with all vaccine producers as their products are certified safe.
Business is business.

[JimJohnson]

NYC had more CV brought in from Europe when leadership was worried about China in the spring. Florida never had those problems. NY state reacted well ASAP. Florida never had a good reaction and blundered around like drunken sailors in their CV response! Completely apples and oranges (Florida oranges)

I agree. Florida started out slow, but due to incompetence we are now in big trouble.

[JimJohnson]

The US shared nothing.
Europe ordered and paid for vaccine, from Phizer, just as they have orders with all vaccine producers as their products are certified safe.
Business is business.

The US Leadership turned down the offer of additional vaccine shipments from Phizer, so other countries bought it up.

[Lottoguy]

They should add the people who work in the hospital distribution network to the first group. These people supply the hospitals, etc. If they get sick your not going to get your much needed supplies. I worked in this industry and we are the backbone of the supply chain.

[Bill14564]

Would anyone who feels their group is NOT critical and should go last please raise your hand?

The hospitals are being overwhelmed by those who get sick enough to require it - some of them die. Others get sick and recover, others don't realize they are sick, and still others have already been infected and have developed an immunity.

Let's aim the vaccine where it will have the most impact. Put those likely to take up hospital space and those likely to die at the front of the line. Test everyone for antibodies first and not spend the initial allotment of vaccine on those who have them. Put those least likely to be severely impacted, like children or most of those under 40, towards the end. Yeah, not popular, but there is science to support it.

[Two Bills]

The US Leadership turned down the offer of additional vaccine shipments from Phizer, so other countries bought it up.

The main point I was disputing with the other poster was the word 'shared.'
It was sold.

[JimJohnson]

:MOJE_whot:Would anyone who feels their group is NOT critical and should go last please raise your hand?

The hospitals are being overwhelmed by those who get sick enough to require it - some of them die. Others get sick and recover, others don't realize they are sick, and still others have already been infected and have developed an immunity.

Let's aim the vaccine where it will have the most impact. Put those likely to take up hospital space and those likely to die at the front of the line. Test everyone for antibodies first and not spend the initial allotment of vaccine on those who have them. Put those least likely to be severely impacted, like children or most of those under 40, towards the end. Yeah, not popular, but there is science to support it.

:MOJE_whot:

[DeanFL]

.
.
In MY opinion (after all "they" have put us thru this year) POLITICIANS nationwide should be the Very LAST individuals to receive the vaccine in the USA.


the order recommended by the ACIP

First: Health Care Workers and residents of Long term care facilities This is called the 1a group
Health care workers includes:
• Hospitals
• Long-term care facilities
• Outpatient clinics
• Home health care
• Pharmacies
• Emergency medical services
• Public health

Long term care residents includes:
Skilled nursing facilities (~1.3 M beds)
• Assisted living facilities (~0.8 M beds)
• Other residential care (~0.9 M beds)

Next is the 1b group:

Phase 1b
Essential workers
(examples: Education Sector, Food & Agriculture, Utilities,
Police, Firefighters, Corrections Officers, Transportation)

Then the next group
Phase1c
Adults with high -risk medical conditions
Adults 65+

[Byte1]

We are only as strong as our weakest link. As long as there are any people with Covid we are still in danger. It took just one person at a Wuhan market (if that is where this virus came from) one person on the other side of the globe, to result in 15 million infections and many, many deaths in the US. And Covid is not done yet!

Surely you do not believe the myth that ONE person at the Wuhan market is responsible for the pandemic?:shocked:

[Byte1]

We have never before in my lifetime needed strong Federal and State government and leadership than we do right now. Even the cold war days of the 50s and 60s it did NOT feel so up close and personal as this Plague today. TV Land has been spared and has gotten WAY more complacent than Miami or even Chicago, where they can FEEL the presence of deadly danger! I get called "chicken little" and pollyannish because I do not watch Factless News and absorb the propaganda of "act normal" and live the happy talk way. I will stubbornly try to express views that I think are good for humanity, even though I was never before a "do-gooder". I will morph into one during this period of stress and trauma.
If I am wrong and this is NOT a period of great stress and trauma, then OK, cool, I am not perfect. I have been wrong before. I have also been stubborn before!!!!!!!

Some Americans are just weak and NEED someone to tell them what to do. Some do not have enough sense to make decisions on their own. What a shame.

[Velvet]

Some Americans are just weak and NEED someone to tell them what to do. Some do not have enough sense to make decisions on their own. What a shame.

We learn from each other. We are not born with knowledge. That is why we have an education system and government. But... that does not mean we don’t do our own assessments.

[Byte1]

We learn from each other. We are not born with knowledge. That is why we have an education system and government. But... that does not mean we don’t do our own assessments.

Not really relevant to the point, is it? The statement is about someone needing the gov to tell them what to do. Like I said, weak folks need supervision for the smallest decisions.

[Velvet]

I guess I am not looking at only one government ie. the one in the US. There are good governments and bad ones. It is dangerous to follow a dictatorial or fascist or Communist government as they have no good intentions for the general public. But a democratic country’s government usually has the general population’s interest at heart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. Those individuals who react, just because someone tells what to do, remind me of toddlers. They don’t evaluate, they just say, “Don’t tell me what to do!” There is a reason why with ALL the available resources, being in many ways FIRST among the nations of the world, the US is probably having the most difficulty controlling this virus on the globe.

[jimjamuser]

The US shared nothing.
Europe ordered and paid for vaccine, from Phizer, just as they have orders with all vaccine producers as their products are certified safe.
Business is business.
That is correct. Good post!

[jimjamuser]

I guess I am not looking at only one government ie. the one in the US. There are good governments and bad ones. It is dangerous to follow a dictatorial or fascist or Communist government as they have no good intentions for the general public. But a democratic country’s government usually has the general population’s interest at heart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. Those individuals who react, just because someone tells what to do, remind me of toddlers. They don’t evaluate, they just say, “Don’t tell me what to do!” There is a reason why with ALL the available resources, being in many ways FIRST among the nations of the world, the US is probably having the most difficulty controlling this virus on the globe.
True......that !

[John41]

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed there are two effective vaccines to fight Covid19 as well as a surplus of ventilators that we shared with the world. We could have ordered Pfizer to hoard all the Covid19 vaccine for the US but generously shared it with other nations at a fair price to reflect the cost of production. The best government program since the Marshal Plan.

[John41]

I guess I am not looking at only one government ie. the one in the US. There are good governments and bad ones. It is dangerous to follow a dictatorial or fascist or Communist government as they have no good intentions for the general public. But a democratic country’s government usually has the general population’s interest at heart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. Those individuals who react, just because someone tells what to do, remind me of toddlers. They don’t evaluate, they just say, “Don’t tell me what to do!” There is a reason why with ALL the available resources, being in many ways FIRST among the nations of the world, the US is probably having the most difficulty controlling this virus on the globe.

Highest reported cases per 100,000 people

Andorra 9,255
Luxembourg 6,331
Montenegro 6,196
Bahrain 5,614
French Polynesia 5,440
San Marino 5,328
Belgium 5,188
Czech 5,186
Qatar 5,040
Armenia 4,842

[coffeebean]

We have never before in my lifetime needed strong Federal and State government and leadership than we do right now. Even the cold war days of the 50s and 60s it did NOT feel so up close and personal as this Plague today. TV Land has been spared and has gotten WAY more complacent than Miami or even Chicago, where they can FEEL the presence of deadly danger! I get called "chicken little" and pollyannish because I do not watch Factless News and absorb the propaganda of "act normal" and live the happy talk way. I will stubbornly try to express views that I think are good for humanity, even though I was never before a "do-gooder". I will morph into one during this period of stress and trauma.


If I am wrong and this is NOT a period of great stress and trauma, then OK, cool, I am not perfect. I have been wrong before. I have also been stubborn before!!!!!!!

I have read several of your posts and would like to comment on your verbiage of "TV Land". I find that "term" offensive for some reason. I apologize in advance if your intent is not to belittle our community which is called The Villages.

[Velvet]

Highest reported cases per 100,000 people

Andorra 9,255
Luxembourg 6,331
Montenegro 6,196
Bahrain 5,614
French Polynesia 5,440
San Marino 5,328
Belgium 5,188
Czech 5,186
Qatar 5,040
Armenia 4,842

Are you also considering scale? The number of individuals affected. Nobody beats the US unfortunately.

[Two Bills]

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed there are two effective vaccines to fight Covid19 as well as a surplus of ventilators that we shared with the world. We could have ordered Pfizer to hoard all the Covid19 vaccine for the US but generously shared it with other nations at a fair price to reflect the cost of production. The best government program since the Marshal Plan.

Considering it was a German research company that the vaccine originated from, that was very generous of Phizer and the US.
Shame the Lysol injections never worked out!

[elevatorman]

Considering it was a German research company that the vaccine originated from, that was very generous of Phizer and the US.
Shame the Lysol injections never worked out!
Not to mention most of the Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in Belgium.

[John41]

Are you also considering scale? The number of individuals affected. Nobody beats the US unfortunately.

The proper metric for measuring the impact is cases per hundred not total cases. If a country had 10,000 citizens and half died of Covid 19 that would be 5,000 deaths much, much less than the US but I don’t think anyone with a basic grammar school math knowledge would say the small country handled it better than the US.

[John41]

Considering it was a German research company that the vaccine originated from, that was very generous of Phizer and the US.
Shame the Lysol injections never worked out!

Nothing you wrote contradicts the fact the under the DPA the US could have put itself first in line and hoarded all the vaccine for itself. The allocations were done jointly with our allies and reasonable prices set. The Biden administration, to its credit, has decided to extend Operation Warp Speed because it has been so successful.

[Two Bills]

Not to mention most of the Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in Belgium.

All UK vaccine was from Belgium.

[Velvet]

The proper metric for measuring the impact is cases per hundred not total cases. If a country had 10,000 citizens and half died of Covid 19 that would be 5,000 deaths much, much less than the US but I don’t think anyone with a basic grammar school math knowledge would say the small country handled it better than the US.

Nope, because Covid is spread by people, the proper metric is density. Too bad we do not have stats by density of population. Look at New York, if you want to look at a smaller geographic area, for example.

I understand it is hard to accept that this beautiful country is suffering to this extent, and I have every hope that the vaccine will help. It depends on many people’s attitude to what extent and how soon we will recover.

[John41]

Nope, because Covid is spread by people, the proper metric is density. Too bad we do not have stats by density of population. Look at New York, if you want to look at a smaller geographic area, for example.

I understand it is hard to accept that this beautiful country is suffering to this extent, and I have every hope that the vaccine will help. It depends on many people’s attitude to what extent and how soon we will recover.

I’ll try to make it simple.There are two countries one large the other small.

In the small country 50% of the residents die from Covid 19.
In the large country 1% of the residents die from Covid 29.

In which country would one be more likely to die from Covid 19?

This is very basic grammar school math. If math wasn’t you strong suit I understand, but that is as simple as it gets and I can’t help you further. Sorry.

[Velvet]

I’ll try to make it simple.There are two countries one large the other small.

In the small country 50% of the residents die from Covid 19.
In the large country 1% of the residents die from Covid 29.

In which country would one be more likely to die from Covid 19?

This is very basic grammar school math. If math wasn’t you strong suit I understand, but that is as simple as it gets and I can’t help you further. Sorry.

You are missing the point. If one country has everyone living in a high rise, and the other one, people are spread out as in rural areas. Or like Zukerman and Oprah, have half an island estates.... where do you think there will be more Covid?

Don’t give up, try to think it through. I appreciate your input.

(And both in economics and engineering we did use math extensively. I do follow what you are saying.)

[John41]

government as they have no good intentions for the general public. But a democratic country’s government usually has the general population’s interest at heart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. Those individuals who react, just because someone tells what to do, remind me of toddlers. They don’t evaluate, they just say, “Don’t tell me what to do!” There is a reason why with ALL the available resources, being in many ways FIRST among the nations of the world, the US is probably having the most difficulty controlling this virus on the globe.


You are missing the point. If one country has everyone living in a high rise, and the other one, people are spread out as in rural areas. Or like Zukerman and Oprah, have half an island estates.... where do you think there will be more Covid?

Don’t give up, try to think it through. I appreciate your input.

(And both in economics and engineering we did use math extensively. I do follow what you are saying.)

Let’s back up to your original post, reprinted above in part , where you postulate that democratic governments generally care for their citizens. I agree with you on that point.

Then you state that the US is a) having probably the most difficult time controlling Covid 19 in the world because b) some citizens rebel at following rules like wearing masks. I agree with you on part (b) but on what basis do you state (a) is true? You imply total Covid cases then change your mind and state density is the criteria.

We both have scientific backgrounds so would you please give a hypothetical example with numbers in the formula you would use to calculate your definition of density? I’m going to take a guess and say you would like to take a density function for each very small delta area of the US and some mortality function for the same delta area and with some combined function integrate or sum over all delta areas in the US or whatever country being studied.

[Aloha1]

NOTHING, that ANY State or Country has done, has stopped this virus. Not lockdowns, not masks, NOTHING. So get off the denigration of our Governor and President.

By eliminating the usual Government agency slow dance, this Administration has facilitated the development of MULTIPLE vaccines. By June, anyone who wants it will have it. Have you all lost your common sense? Do you really need Big Brother to tell you what to do?

I am sick and tired of hearing the same rants from the same suspects on this forum. If you are all such experts why aren't you volunteering to "fix" the problem? Give it a rest.

Rant out.

[Velvet]

government as they have no good intentions for the general public. But a democratic country’s government usually has the general population’s interest at heart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. Those individuals who react, just because someone tells what to do, remind me of toddlers. They don’t evaluate, they just say, “Don’t tell me what to do!” There is a reason why with ALL the available resources, being in many ways FIRST among the nations of the world, the US is probably having the most difficulty controlling this virus on the globe.




Let’s back up to your original post, reprinted above in part , where you postulate that democratic governments generally care for their citizens. I agree with you on that point.

Then you state that the US is a) having probably the most difficult time controlling Covid 19 in the world because b) some citizens rebel at following rules like wearing masks. I agree with you on part (b) but on what basis do you state (a) is true? You imply total Covid cases then change your mind and state density is the criteria.

We both have scientific backgrounds so would you please give a hypothetical example with numbers in the formula you would use to calculate your definition of density? I’m going to take a guess and say you would like to take a density function for each very small delta area of the US and some mortality function for the same delta area and with some combined function integrate or sum over all delta areas in the US or whatever country being studied.

Yes, but people are not identical. The effect of density also depends on socioeconomic class etc. All high rises building populations are not alike. Therefore a calculus integral would not reflect the probability of Covid cases per area correctly, in my opinion.

What I was thinking was that there are large geographic areas in the US which have a low density for population. I know you may say that “per capita” takes that into account. My thinking is there are many factors which determine an equivalent comparison of different countries or even counties.

My guess is you may have an applied science type of background from your suggestion. In the social sciences we tend to use statistical analysis, regressive equations because more dissimilar factors can be included.

[John41]

NOTHING, that ANY State or Country has done, has stopped this virus. Not lockdowns, not masks, NOTHING. So get off the denigration of our Governor and President.

By eliminating the usual Government agency slow dance, this Administration has facilitated the development of MULTIPLE vaccines. By June, anyone who wants it will have it. Have you all lost your common sense? Do you really need Big Brother to tell you what to do?

I am sick and tired of hearing the same rants from the same suspects on this forum. If you are all such experts why aren't you volunteering to "fix" the problem? Give it a rest.

Rant out.

I agree that Operation Warp Speed has been a success , but the government has the responsibility in part for public health information like wearing masks being advisable to slow the spread of the virus. Agree that only the vaccine will facilitate herd immunity and eliminate this virus. But also agree we need to consider if the government information has purposes other than health.

[John41]

Yes, but people are not identical. The effect of density also depends on socioeconomic class etc. All high rises building populations are not alike. Therefore a calculus integral would not reflect the probability of Covid cases per area correctly, in my opinion.

What I was thinking was that there are large geographic areas in the US which have a low density for population. I know you may say that “per capita” takes that into account. My thinking is there are many factors which determine an equivalent comparison of different countries or even counties.

My guess is you may have an applied science type of background from your suggestion. In the social sciences we tend to use statistical analysis, regressive equations because more dissimilar factors can be included.


Originally when I read your post I thought it was a criticism of Operation Warp Speed because we had a large total of Covid 19 cases. After rereading it I think your intent was to say that the total would be much lower if everyone wore a mask and didn’t act like rebellious teenagers.

I agree regression or statistical analysis would be the most practical way of proving your hypotheses which is, I think,

“If everyone wears a mask, then the number of Covid 19 cases will be reduced by X percent.”

As you point out this is a multivariate regression analysis and the t-test would be used to test the statistical significance of each coefficient and the assumption of linearity in the coefficients would have to be investigated as well. (as best I remember)

A stratified sampling approach would be needed for statistical analysis again because of
the non homogeneity of the population.

Either way it sounds like it is too complicated to give an answer in a short timeframe, more like a public health PhD thesis. I think that’s why simpler metrics like cases per hundred thousand or totals are used. Maybe AI will help make those computations easier in the future.

We always wear masks and haven’t had friends over since March. Very boring but necessary.

My background is math/physics undergrad and finance/economics graduate . Worked in an engineering department.

[Velvet]

Originally when I read your post I thought it was a criticism of Operation Warp Speed because we had a large total of Covid 19 cases. After rereading it I think your intent was to say that the total would be much lower if everyone wore a mask and didn’t act like rebellious teenagers.

I agree regression or statistical analysis would be the most practical way of proving your hypotheses which is, I think,

“If everyone wears a mask, then the number of Covid 19 cases will be reduced by X percent.”

As you point out this is a multivariate regression analysis and the t-test would be used to test the statistical significance of each coefficient and the assumption of linearity in the coefficients would have to be investigated as well. (as best I remember)

A stratified sampling approach would be needed for statistical analysis again because of
the non homogeneity of the population.

Either way it sounds like it is too complicated to give an answer in a short timeframe, more like a public health PhD thesis. I think that’s why simpler metrics like cases per hundred thousand or totals are used. Maybe AI will help make those computations easier in the future.

We always wear masks and haven’t had friends over since March. Very boring but necessary.

My background is math/physics undergrad and finance/economics graduate . Worked in an engineering department.

Of course. In complete agreement.... which as you know is very unusual for two individuals in economics. :)

[John41]

Of course. In complete agreement.... which as you know is very unusual for two individuals in economics. :)

Thanks for the interesting discussion.

[Bucco]

Thanks for the interesting discussion.

I thank you and Velvet for allowing us readers to share in what was an interesting and thought provoking conversation.

[Aloha1]

I also, thank the both of you for a reasoned SCIENTIFIC discussion. I do disagree on one point, that masks reduce cases. That is empirically true initially, however as evidenced by current results in countries that previously had mandatory lockdowns and mask wearing, all it did was delay the inevitable march of the virus.

[John41]

I also, thank the both of you for a reasoned SCIENTIFIC discussion. I do disagree on one point, that masks reduce cases. That is empirically true initially, however as evidenced by current results in countries that previously had mandatory lockdowns and mask wearing, all it did was delay the inevitable march of the virus.

I agree masks and lockdowns only delay the virus as we now know, at least at the mask participation levels of the general population. But, that was the only tool available (plus hand washing and social distancing) to slow the rate of infection. Even a small reduction in that rate can have an enormous impact on total number of Covid 19 cases.

Now that vaccines are available thanks to Operation Warp Speed they might produce herd immunity and eventual elimination of the virus. Hopefully, the virus will not mutate to something more deadly like ebola and revisit us. First priority of the new administration needs to be stepped up research which I think is the plan. What disturbs me the most is the politics inserted into this pandemic.

We were complacent and nature gave us a rude awakening.

[Aloha1]

I agree masks and lockdowns only delay the virus as we now know, at least at the mask participation levels of the general population. But, that was the only tool available (plus hand washing and social distancing) to slow the rate of infection. Even a small reduction in that rate can have an enormous impact on total number of Covid 19 cases.

Now that vaccines are available thanks to Operation Warp Speed they might produce herd immunity and eventual elimination of the virus. Hopefully, the virus will not mutate to something more deadly like ebola and revisit us. First priority of the new administration needs to be stepped up research which I think is the plan. What disturbs me the most is the politics inserted into this pandemic

We were complacent and nature gave us a rude awakening.

I agree especially with concern that the presumptive replacement at the top may slow down such research and end up reinstating too much bureaucracy and slowing progress down.

[Hoosierb4]

I also, thank the both of you for a reasoned SCIENTIFIC discussion. I do disagree on one point, that masks reduce cases. That is empirically true initially, however as evidenced by current results in countries that previously had mandatory lockdowns and mask wearing, all it did was delay the inevitable march of the virus.
Delaying the "march of the virus" saves lives. The medical community gets more time to learn how to treat it, so the death rate is much reduced, and drug companies get time to develop vaccines. Places that got hit early had high death rates (Italy and New York, for example).

[jimjamuser]

I agree especially with concern that the presumptive replacement at the top may slow down such research and end up reinstating too much bureaucracy and slowing progress down.
Some people need to get their heads out of our national propaganda network. Their brains are melting as they keep parroting out 1/2 truths and lies. Ring in the new year with joyous tidings of "finally" goodwill toward man.

[stanley]

Some people need to get their heads out of our national propaganda network. Their brains are melting as they keep parroting out 1/2 truths and lies.

And some people need to stop thinking their "opinion" is the truth and the only one that matters.

[jimjamuser]

Nothing you wrote contradicts the fact the under the DPA the US could have put itself first in line and hoarded all the vaccine for itself. The allocations were done jointly with our allies and reasonable prices set. The Biden administration, to its credit, has decided to extend Operation Warp Speed because it has been so successful.
The US made its decision to NOT BUY Pfizer's 2nd batch of vaccine. So, Europe swooped in and bought them up. The motives were profit by Pfizer and intelligent negotiation and action by Europe. The US outsmarted itself - that's all - no credit to the US for humanitarian, caring motives. WE always think that as a country we are helping others. But, it is not since WW2 that WE actually did that. Now, of course, some individual non-profit US organizations help in the world (like the Bill Gates Foundation). But, somehow(?) Gates has become a pariah here in TV Land? And John Kerry and other noble citizens?

[jimjamuser]

You are missing the point. If one country has everyone living in a high rise, and the other one, people are spread out as in rural areas. Or like Zukerman and Oprah, have half an island estates.... where do you think there will be more Covid?

Don’t give up, try to think it through. I appreciate your input.

(And both in economics and engineering we did use math extensively. I do follow what you are saying.)
Zuckerberg, I believe?

[stanley]

Gates has become a pariah here in TV Land? And John Kerry and other noble citizens?

John Kerry? :ohdear: I wonder who are the other "noble" citizens you are thinking about

[jimjamuser]

NOTHING, that ANY State or Country has done, has stopped this virus. Not lockdowns, not masks, NOTHING. So get off the denigration of our Governor and President.

By eliminating the usual Government agency slow dance, this Administration has facilitated the development of MULTIPLE vaccines. By June, anyone who wants it will have it. Have you all lost your common sense? Do you really need Big Brother to tell you what to do?

I am sick and tired of hearing the same rants from the same suspects on this forum. If you are all such experts why aren't you volunteering to "fix" the problem? Give it a rest.

Rant out.
The simple truth is that the US has had the world's worse reaction to the CV emergency handed to the world. Canada has minimal problems compared to the US. There has been for years an IRRATIONAL idea that the US is best at EVERYTHING. - That is a myth. - it is called ethnocentrism and jingoism - your particular country ABOVE all others. Your Ohio State football team is better than mine. Your religion is better than mine. Your race is superior to mine. That ALL is why we have racism problems right now. We have division of leadership problems right now. WE BLEW the CV problem. WE are BLOWING the Global Warming problem. And, truth be told, the US is a LAUGHING STOCK among nations, not the best #1. Why hide the truth from yourselves?

[stanley]

And, truth be told, the US is a LAUGHING STOCK among nations, not the best #1. Why hide the truth from yourselves?

Proof please.

[jimjamuser]

Yes, but people are not identical. The effect of density also depends on socioeconomic class etc. All high rises building populations are not alike. Therefore a calculus integral would not reflect the probability of Covid cases per area correctly, in my opinion.

What I was thinking was that there are large geographic areas in the US which have a low density for population. I know you may say that “per capita” takes that into account. My thinking is there are many factors which determine an equivalent comparison of different countries or even counties.

My guess is you may have an applied science type of background from your suggestion. In the social sciences we tend to use statistical analysis, regressive equations because more dissimilar factors can be included.
if I were a judge in this debate I would vote for you.

[Moderator]

This one has long strayed from the topic of distribution.

Another one bites the dust.

Moderator