Labor statistics do not mean anything

[JimJoe]

Labor statistics do not mean anything. Today the BLS announced the jobless claims dropped by 27,000, great news?? BUT most media are not reporting that 9 states did NOT report this week, including California. California and Virginia ESTIMATED theirs, and the Federal Gov estimated the other 7 states. A reporter on CNBC just suggested some investors may consider that suspicious. YA THINK!!!
No wonder small investors are fleeing the stock market in droves. These kind of statistics PLUS the Flash crash that never has been explained means growing distrust.
What do you all think of this "good news" Jobless claims numbers released today? Do you think the main stream media is covering this accurately?
JJ

Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein

[Taj44]

This belongs in Political.

[JimJoe]

This belongs in Political.

I just realized there is an investment talk forum and that is where this belongs. Sorry it was posted in General non villages discussion.
I want to alert investors to this issue. Is that political?
I object to the suggestion it belongs in Political which is restricted. This is not political and I do not want my speech restricted.
I am pointing out how the jobless claims number was released and investors relied on it. I learned about this problem by watching CNBC. I think these types of problems show why small investors are leaving the stock market.
Why do you want it moved to political? I am not saying anything about any political party or person.

[Chi-Town]

Anytime you mention mainstream media and Federal Government in a post there is a tendency that it becomes political even though that was not the intention.

[l2ridehd]

I agree that this is not political, it is investment related. If you look at the jobless claims for the past 24 months, they have always been revised a few weeks after they are reported for one reason or another. This may have been happening forever, but because the news seems to be bad most of the time, it has got more focus lately. But in almost every case the initial report has been more favorable then when the final number is reported. Probably works the same way when it is going in the other direction as well. But they seem to hipe how it has improved, the market goes up a bit and then they saw "oops" it really is XXX which is not so good. Then the market swings back down. I am sure somewhere they are brokers who use this to make money on every swing.

[JimJoe]

I agree that this is not political, it is investment related. If you look at the jobless claims for the past 24 months, they have always been revised a few weeks after they are reported for one reason or another. This may have been happening forever, but because the news seems to be bad most of the time, it has got more focus lately. But in almost every case the initial report has been more favorable then when the final number is reported. Probably works the same way when it is going in the other direction as well. But they seem to hipe how it has improved, the market goes up a bit and then they saw "oops" it really is XXX which is not so good. Then the market swings back down. I am sure somewhere they are brokers who use this to make money on every swing.

I have no problems with the estimates if it is made clear they ARE estimates and why they are estimates. I know there are revisions, but investors have a right to know what the numbers really mean, and especially if the origin of that weekly number changes in a particular week because of a holiday. I think the better approach would have been to release the 41 state number, and the 9 state estimates separately.
Investors have a right to know the facts and I think most of the media did investors a disfavor today, and may have created more distrust in investment information unnecessarily.

[Yoda]

I think that this is very important to investors. They may not be participating in political.

What would you do if the president was killed, put it in political?

Yoda

[getdul981]

I believe I saw somewhere that the figures are inaccurate anyway. They don't take into account the people that are unemployed and no longer looking for a job or the people on unemployment who's benefits have expired.

[Boomer]

Hi JimJoe,

I am a small investor who has not fled the market. 'Small' is the operative word here. I have been in it for a long time. But never totally.

I save myself a lot of aggravation by paying absolutely no attention to what the media says. The 24/7 demand for information, no matter how worthless, has created a gaping maw that the networks scramble to fill with whatever they can grab. The Power of Babble....that's all it is.

And as far as the market's response to the media goes, more often than not it makes absolutely no sense. I have seen the market behave like a self-absorbed, hideously greedy :censored: by sending a stock price higher immediately after an announcement of job cuts. It is that knee-jerk response to the bottom line rather than to the big picture. I do not like to see that happen. I find it ugly, weird, and sad when it does. I tend to look at the big picture. But it happens.

As far as stock-picking goes, I know I don't really know. But I also know that nobody else really knows either. I have to understand what I buy, and I have to feel like I like it enough to want to keep it for a while, a long while usually. I do not have any formulas. My guess is that the market might take a little dip sometime this fall, and if it does, I am all set to go shopping again. Just a little shopping. But i will buy boring stuff you can bet. (And please remember....I do not know anything.)

And now, it is time for one of my shameless confessions........

Even though I am here self-righteously proclaiming that I pay no attention to the media now, I must confess that a very long time ago, I had a little crush on Louis Rukeyser. I was young. He was not. But I glued myself to his television show. He never yelled like a lunatic. He never got a wild-horse look in his eyes. He had a wonderful voice and he made me feel like I could really get into this stock market thing.

When I read this thread start, I admit that I thought about Lou and started feeling a little nostalgic and so I looked him up. I found this little video from a long time ago. But for me, the discussion there still makes a lot of sense. You are invited to join me for a look-back at Lou. If you scroll down through the article, you will find a video of Louis Rukeyser talking with Peter Lynch and also another guy who has some really interesting things to say. (Gotta love the hair.)

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/remembering-louis-rukeyser/

Boomer