Is the market going to crash?

[Becca9800]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

[GrumpyOldMan]

You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.

[retiredguy123]

You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.

[Tom52]

If you can't sleep well at night because you are worried about a market crash you have the wrong asset allocation. You just can't have it both ways. Just remember pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. Absolutely no one can accurately predict when the market will crash so you should begin adjusting your investments now if you are uncomfortable how they are allocated.

[Becca9800]

You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.

See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?

[Becca9800]

You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.

I sought out 2 "experts", one said pull, the other said hold.

[Becca9800]

If you can't sleep well at night because you are worried about a market crash you have the wrong asset allocation. You just can't have it both ways. Just remember pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. Absolutely no one can accurately predict when the market will crash so you should begin adjusting your investments now if you are uncomfortable how they are allocated.

I love ya, Tom but asset allocation and asset adjustment ain't my strong suits. That's why I sought expert advice, which was conflicting. I'm as dumb as they come when it comes to finance. I mean, I have a credit score in the 800s bc I have debt and pay my bills on time but beyond that.....

[Stu from NYC]

I love ya, Tom but asset allocation and asset adjustment ain't my strong suits. That's why I sought expert advice, which was conflicting. I'm as dumb as they come when it comes to finance. I mean, I have a credit score in the 800s bc I have debt and pay my bills on time but beyond that.....

Without knowing your net worth and your age hard to give advise.

Also no idea if you have a pension.

BTW your net worth is none of our business.

What you should do is stop being ignorant. Read some books and/or take a class in personal finance. A financial advisor would be a good thing for you but you need to have some knowledge of finances.

IMHO thinking that with interest rates being this low you are too conservative but that is me. Remember you need your assets to enjoy retirement.

[Becca9800]

Without knowing your net worth and your age hard to give advise.

Also no idea if you have a pension.

BTW your net worth is none of our business.

What you should do is stop being ignorant. Read some books and/or take a class in personal finance. A financial advisor would be a good thing for you but you need to have some knowledge of finances.

IMHO thinking that with interest rates being this low you are too conservative but that is me. Remember you need your assets to enjoy retirement.

Can you recommend a book, please?

[Tom52]

See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?

I believe by any definition you already have a conservative asset allocation. Long term you need enough in equities to stay ahead of inflation. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. My suggestion would be to ignore the financial talking heads.

[Becca9800]

I believe by any definition you already have a conservative asset allocation. Long term you need enough in equities to stay ahead of inflation. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. My suggestion would be to ignore the financial talking heads.

Really??? Thank you so much! I very much appreciate your opinion.

[tuccillo]

A basic book about asset allocation is:

"All About Asset Allocation" by Richard Ferri.

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

[retiredguy123]

See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.

[dewilson58]

:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Interesting advice without know an age.


:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[GrumpyOldMan]

I sought out 2 "experts", one said pull, the other said hold.

Did you vet the "experts". And that is not a surprise, ask 5 more and you will get 5 more types of advice.

And the absolute worst place to get advice on almost anything is online in a forum.

[Becca9800]

Did you vet the "experts". And that is not a surprise, ask 5 more and you will get 5 more types of advice.

And the absolute worst place to get advice on almost anything is online in a forum.
I mean how would I vet an expert? I don't know what I don't know. They were both recommendations from friends and that didn't pan out. So on the forum issue, I'm looking for majority. I understand the risk is still mine, simply looking for opinions.

[Becca9800]

It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.

Got it! Ensure investment in bonds are in those w <10 year maturity and NO annuities. 2 concepts never before heard. Thank you!!!!

[Becca9800]

A basic book about asset allocation is:

"All About Asset Allocation" by Richard Ferri.

So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

[Becca9800]

:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Interesting advice without know an age.


:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

So I'm 61 and retired w >3 years of monthly payments for health care coverage until Medicare kicks in at 65. Pension? Ha! Haha! I worked in health care for nearly 40 years, there is no pension to speak of. I def picked the wrong line of work. Me and the bank own two homes, my car is paid off and there is no other debt. I feel very fortunate though, so many are in much worse straights. IDK. Does that shed any light?

[Stu from NYC]

So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

How do you know if the so called expert is looking out for your best interests?

Do you have a close friend or relative you can trust to help you?

[Becca9800]

How do you know if the so called expert is looking out for your best interests?

Do you have a close friend or relative you can trust to help you?

I don't know that anyone has my best interests in mind! That's my #1 concern. The 2 experts I consulted were recommended by friends, they gave conflicting advice (see previous posts).

[tuccillo]

The book I suggested, or any number of other basic books, will help you start to understand what an advisor is suggesting. Investing a little time will be worthwhile.

So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Your 403B is in lieu of a pension. Since you're over 59-1/2 you can touch it without significant penalty if you really want to. But if you don't need to, you probably should just sit on it for awhile. See if you can hold out til you're eligible for Medicare, and then if you need it to cover the cost of part D or whatever they end up having in a few years, and to supplement your social security income, it'll be there for you.

[stevecmo]

To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.

[bandsdavis]

See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?

From what I know, that does not describe an "Aggresive", portfolio, but very conservative. If you are not working with a certified financial advisor, that's your first mistake. IMHO

[Carla B]

The suggestion to visit Bogleheads.org is a very good one, as is the one to read the Richard Ferri book. As I recall he was a pupil of John Bogle. Richard Ferri also runs a financial adviser firm. The Bogleheads forum which deals with new investor topics a lot. Not only do they discuss investment strategies there is discussion on personal finance, as well.

If you do a search on Investments in this forum, TOTV, you will gain a lot of knowledge right here, as well..

[Topspinmo]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.



Yes.

[Becca9800]

Your 403B is in lieu of a pension. Since you're over 59-1/2 you can touch it without significant penalty if you really want to. But if you don't need to, you probably should just sit on it for awhile. See if you can hold out til you're eligible for Medicare, and then if you need it to cover the cost of part D or whatever they end up having in a few years, and to supplement your social security income, it'll be there for you.

Right. That much I get. The real question.... do I leave my money where it is, is it safe from any market crash? Or do I need to move it to a safer place?

[Becca9800]

Yes.
Yes? Yes what?

[Becca9800]

From what I know, that does not describe an "Aggresive", portfolio, but very conservative. If you are not working with a certified financial advisor, that's your first mistake. IMHO

I think I'm OK w a conservative portfolio and I tried to hook up w a financial advisor but rec'd conflicting advice. Now what?

[Becca9800]

To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.

It helped! Thank you!

[Becca9800]

The book I suggested, or any number of other basic books, will help you start to understand what an advisor is suggesting. Investing a little time will be worthwhile.

Your advice is very worthwhile. I can't thank you enough! THANK YOU!!!

[Hiltongrizz11]

Can you recommend a book, please?

Dave Ramsey "The Total Money Makeover"

It may change your life and I hope it does!

[csricksdds]

A wise man once told me: "All assumptions are false, all assumptions are true - we must make assumptions"

[thevillages2013]

Can you recommend a book, please?
Investing for dummies:bigbow:

[dewilson58]

So I'm 61 and retired w >3 years of monthly payments for health care coverage until Medicare kicks in at 65. Pension? Ha! Haha! I worked in health care for nearly 40 years, there is no pension to speak of. I def picked the wrong line of work. Me and the bank own two homes, my car is paid off and there is no other debt. I feel very fortunate though, so many are in much worse straights. IDK. Does that shed any light?

Thank you for your service in our healthcare industry.
It's impossible for anyone to give financial advise without knowing your age.
Investing in your 20's, vs. 40's, vs. 60's is very different.
The advise on ths public social board is like a Clint Eastwood movie....The Good, The Bad, The Ugly.

Books are good for basic knowledge, don't buy the get rich books.
Good to have basic knowledge.

People you know are the best reference for financial advisors.

[GRACEALLEMAN]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
Have you ever heard of Vanguard? You need to get a hold of Vanguard investments. We've been with them for over 30 years and done very well very safe thorough knowledge. They have the lowest fee of any investment firm lower than Fidelity. Call Vanguard investments toll free number

[irishwonone]

You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.
Yes eventually the market will reset and prices will go down. Whatever goes up eventually goes down. We’re at all time highs so you should anticipate change.

[retiredguy123]

Have you ever heard of Vanguard? You need to get a hold of Vanguard investments. We've been with them for over 30 years and done very well very safe thorough knowledge. They have the lowest fee of any investment firm lower than Fidelity. Call Vanguard investments toll free number
I agree that Vanguard would be a good way to go. But, Fidelity is also a good choice because they have an office in The Villages. You may feel more comfortable dealing with a live person. The first step would be to ask them to help you transfer all assets from your 403B account into an IRA account of no load funds, without changing your current asset allocation. Then, you will need a little knowledge to adjust your portfolio as needed.

[akerwin1909]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes
to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
First, I’d start reading everything there is about investing in the stock market. There’s no excuse for remaining ignorant of your investments. It’s so important that I would start learning immediately. You don’t have to become a broker just know what they are doing and whether it’s the right thing. Next, you should never be in an aggressive position if you’re over the age where
You rely on that investment. Whomever is your advisor is not doing right by you if they are still in an aggressive position now. That is just crazy. Please get wise and talk to a local person here who really k nonws how to treat senior’s money.

[Holly Richardson]

Becca, I’m an Allstate agent working from home in TV. Allstate has many financial products that can protect some of your assets. You can put some money in an annuity. There are various kinds with no risk and higher risk and a few years and longer terms. I’m not licensed to discuss them. We have experienced advisors that are happy to provide valuable information free of charge. Call me 954-437-9230 ext. 308 and I’ll set an appointment for you. I’d say take the free advice and then make a decision that meets your needs. I have an annuity with little risk I will use to supplement my social security when I’m 70.5. I felt the same way as you and pulled out some money from the stock market. I didn’t want all the risk and wanted extra income when I’m no longer working.

[Windguy]

See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
I would not call that an aggressive portfolio. Not even close.

A general rule of thumb I have used is to use volatile stocks only for money you won’t need for 10+ years. Money you will need sooner should be more conservative.

What is going on in the stock market right now is gambling pure and simple. People aren’t investing in good companies with strong fundamentals, but in companies who’s stock price is skyrocketing. They are betting that they will sell before everyone else does. And, the ones who will win this game are not likely to be folks like us. People are getting second mortgages to buy stock in worthless companies. The bubble will eventually burst and people will wake up one morning with a serious financial hangover.

[l2ridehd]

To answer your question, yes it will crash. You are currently fairly conservative with your investments. Read Ferri’s book on asset allocation. Read boogleheads.org web site. Understand what your invested in. If you can’t or don’t want to, put everything in Vanguard Life Strategy income or moderate growth fund until you do. Very safe, very conservative and will adjust as market changes. DO NOT TRY to time the market. No one has every been successful doing that.

[retiredguy123]

Becca, I’m an Allstate agent working from home in TV. Allstate has many financial products that can protect some of your assets. You can put some money in an annuity. There are various kinds with no risk and higher risk and a few years and longer terms. I’m not licensed to discuss them. We have experienced advisors that are happy to provide valuable information free of charge. Call me 954-437-9230 ext. 308 and I’ll set an appointment for you. I’d say take the free advice and then make a decision that meets your needs. I have an annuity with little risk I will use to supplement my social security when I’m 70.5. I felt the same way as you and pulled out some money from the stock market. I didn’t want all the risk and wanted extra income when I’m no longer working.
Sorry. But, I would definitely stay away from insurance companies and annuities for investing money.

[dewilson58]

I agree that Vanguard would be a good way to go. But, Fidelity is also a good choice because they have an office in The Villages. You may feel more comfortable dealing with a live person. The first step would be to ask them to help you transfer all assets from your 403B account into an IRA account of no load funds, without changing your current asset allocation. Then, you will need a little knowledge to adjust your portfolio as needed.

:bigbow:

[J1ceasar]

Start watching financial tv networks and go to your library . Many brokerages have free talks . Enjoy life and relax . And just because you have certain percentages does not mean your stocks are the correct ones for your lifestyle and age. Ask your brokers which stocks do you have and are they dividend stocks or growth stocks. Read read and read some more. Don't be rash and don't do anything wholeheartedly until you really understand what you're being told remember it's your money

[llamanca]

It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.

Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.

[Catalina36]

First off, Good luck in this market. If you were invested in 100% in stocks then you have done well. You did not state if you are retired or working full or part time. You just stated info about a account you have with a former employer. Now you may be getting nervous with the S&P and the Dow reaching new highs. Like someone else said you cannot time the market's ups and downs.

1st, I would recommend getting out of your 403B. Transfer your account into a low cost fund manager like Vanguard, Fidelity, or Charles Schwab. I just happened to choose Charles Schwab because they are local and I can meet face to face with a financial adviser when ever I want. Charles Schwab also has a ROBO Adviser which will maintain your % of invested portfolio. When I worked I was invested 100% in stocks because every week I was depositing dollars in my 401K. Right now I am invested 52% stocks 36% bonds and 12% cash in a money market. That's how Schwab's ROBO Adviser has me invested, a very low cost computer generated method of managing your account. Some other advisers want 1.25% annually to manage your account. To me that's highway robbery. They state, they try to outperform the S&P 500.

2nd, everyone's personal situation is different. Are you collecting a pension? Are you just collecting Social security? Are you withdrawing money our of your 403B every month to live on??
So to answer your question, No, I would not pull all of your money out of the stock market and place it in a MM account. I know someone who did just that in a panic right after the pandemic hit and the market dropped 25% or more. They missed out on the come back because they did not know when to get back in. Just remember it is extremely difficult / impossible to time the market. Stocks go up and stocks go down. Try and discuss your personal situation with a good financial advisor who will guide you based on your age and financial needs. Best of Luck, invest wisely.

[msilagy]

It almost sounds like Becca might be playing a game and the info/question not real.

[bonrich]

Becca9800,
I would look for and go with a Fee Based financial advisor. What they would do is sit down with you and go through your assets and liabilities, goals, age, all your financials and look at what you would need for your income going forward and making it last through the years. Also, they would find out your risk tolerance, what you can handle comfortably as an investment portfolio. Once that is done, then comes the mix, conservative can be 70% safe funds, 30% in the market for growth, giving you a monthly income to supplement SS and a pension if you have one. They would recommend different funds to go into based on what they have about you. Once in, tune up once a year and if all is going well, stay the course. Crash?, they call it a market correction now, eases the shock value. Will it happen, experts make a lot of money predicting.

[Boffin]

Yes, the market will go down. No one knows when.
No, you should not change your current holdings.
FYI: The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. The average length of a bull market is 973 days or about 2.7 years.

[Stu from NYC]

Sorry. But, I would definitely stay away from insurance companies and annuities for investing money.

Totally agree, Fidelity has an office in the villages sit down with someone there and let him start your education.

[Stu from NYC]

Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.

There is an old saying about annuities. They are sold and never bought.

Ask your advisor how much in commissions he will make selling you an annuity.

[terenceanne]

There are no experts - even Warren Buffet has lost Billions over the years. All you can do is take the advise of previous comments posted and get your ducks in a row....then keep your fingers crossed.
I believe there is another housing bubble coming though.

[retiredguy123]

Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.
I suspect that your advisor recommended an annuity because it has one of the highest commission rates of any investment that he/she can sell. Typically, someone who sells an annuity will receive a commission of about 10 percent of the money you "invest". Some people don't realize that an annuity is actually a life insurance policy issued by an insurance company. So, it is a "contract" rather than an actual investment in real assets like a mutual fund, stock, or bond. Annuities have very high built-in management fees, and they usually have high surrender charges, that require you to pay a penalty if you decide to withdraw your money within 7-10 years.

I would suggest that you ask your advisor to give you a copy of the "entire" annuity contract for you to read (not just the brochure). Chances are that he/she will refuse to do it. They know that if you read the contract in advance, you will probably refuse to sign it. So, they require you to buy the annuity before giving you the contract. Not a good way to sell a product.

[Girlcopper]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
Getting advice from strangers? Hire a financial advisor. Case closed

[Malsua]

Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.

Because the only people that make money on Annuities are those selling them.

It sounds great. You deposit X amount and get paid Y amount over a period of time, guaranteed! That's right, you'll never have to worry about not having money! It's perfect, free money!

Or not. Annuities are almost ALWAYS bad investments. You hand over a pile to a company that invests your money, turns a huge profit and leaves you with some scraps. They are always capped on upside gain and your return almost never includes any dividends a stock or index may produce.

They would only make sense if you need to produce income for someone incapable of even the slightest bit of management. If you had a child of limited mental capacity and needed to ensure they could live after you're gone. That kind of thing. That said, there are better options in trusts and such, much beyond the scope of this original post.

To the OP: Yes, the market will crash. You have to ask yourself will you need your funds to actively live or can you weather an 18 month downturn(including your own mortality). If you can weather a crash, then "balls to the wall". In that case, get some low cost index funds or ETFs, like Vanguard VTI or an S&P 500 fund, put 90% in there, 10% in money market and enjoy the returns. That's Warren Buffet's strategy and mine too. Although I'm young enough, I have 95% of my investments in index funds and growth funds.

Conventional wisdom is you start to get more and more conservative as you age. A family member has not done that and in the last 25 years has seen his original retirement money quadruple. He literally has 4x as much money now than he did when he retired. He's 86 now, and still mostly in index funds but has toned down to about 20% in bonds, 10% in cash.

[MandoMan]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Stay where you are. There are periodic “market adjustments” where people get scared and decide to do what they call “profit taking.” Plenty of people then panic and sell. But if they hold on, chances are that in a week or two or a month the market will be higher than it was. Remember that last year there was a huge crash of a third when the Dow was nearing 30,000. A lot of people sold off everything is it dropped, a lot of that when it was near the bottom. They lost 30%. Could you survive if your funds dropped 30% and stayed there? Of course you could! But it’s not likely to drop like that again in your lifetime. Still, those who sold with the market down lost their money. Those who didn’t sell had a pretty good year, despite that drop. At this moment the Dow is at 34,466. That is a really big rise since the last election, just as there was a big one after the election before that. They worried and moaned, but they didn’t sell, and it was a smart move.

I’m invested the same way you are. If I had listened to estate planners in 2015, I would have moved more and more of my money into bonds and “less risky” funds. If I had done that, I would have about half of what I have now and I wouldn’t be able to afford to live here. If I had put the money into an annuity, I would have about half the monthly income I have now just taking some of the growth out of my fund, which keeps on growing. I assume it will fall. And then it will go up again.

Be brave. Stay the course! Don’t reinvest in risky investments with big pay-outs like the Bernie Madoff thing. Don’t reinvest in things that aim to just keep your money “safe” (relatively) by keeping it where it also won’t grow much.

[TNLAKEPANDA]

I recommend Parady Financial for a review of your financial situation. They are a zero pressure company. We divided our investments between stocks and annuities. The sun 🌞 is shining on us.

[LG999]

Since you are “ignorant” as you say, it is possible that your $ is already invested properly. Or nearly so. Maybe just needs some adjusting.

Perhaps you could try to learn about the market & economics in general. Try to educate yourself. Start reading. Look up terminology you do not understand. Then you will at least be able to ask intelligent questions of your investment company or advisor or whoever handles your $.

There are many beginner books. After you have read some, you could start reading the Wall Street Journal online or delivered.

[BrianNotFromNYC]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
There are so many variables, and since no one here knows your situation or age, answers are perfect, or perfectly wrong. The allocation in your fund is not what I would pick, but an advisor picked it based on your fear of the future value, versus the goals of maintaining original value. Risk. The allocation you have is like, bonds are blah but safe, stocks are less safe but have been growing, and stable or cash is like, useless but quickly available? So leave it all where it is and start doing some reading on allocation choices over time. Then decide to change if you want. But to your original question, the stock market is long overdue to "correct" meaning go down some, or a lot. The main reason it has not is that no one wants to be in Bonds. They pay historically low interest. But, if I had a less foggy crystal ball, I can predict with certainty that eventually inflation is going to come home to roost due to the excess spending and stimulus money in the USA. When it does (it is already) and the Fed tightens money supply to try and check it, Bond Rates will rise. Fear will begin to move money from stocks to bonds, and the market will "correct" for 6 months to a year. When? Well it is overdue and the crystal ball is foggy. If you are scared of all this and can't do more research, consider moving some investments out of mutual funds and into direct stock ownership. Allocate that money to blue chip dividend payers. These will pay you dividends regardless of the ups and downs of the individual stock price. Meaning, let's say you put 5000 in pretend stock XXXX that buy 500 shares, each paying $1 dividends annually. If in five years the "value" dropped to 3,000, you still will get $500 annually in dividends because you still own 500 shares. If that same 5000 was put in mutual funds that tanked 30 or 40%, you will own less "shares" in the fund, and get less dividends. I dislike Mutual funds, but understand that do more asset diversification. But it comes at a cost (fees) and never, ever, fare will in a correction. And when the market recovers again, you never fully recover. Back to stock XXXX, you owned 500 shares as the price went up and down, and the only opportunity you los, is selling at a profit if you just sit tight.

[rustyp]

Do not use LPL Financial (there is an office in Spanish Springs). After years of having an account up north with them I decided I wanted it transferred to TV. I had to interview with them to accept me. Accept what - I am a customer now ! When I told them I wanted to park my money in a money market fund they politely advised me we were probably not a good match. That is when I decided to move on to another organization. It took over 30 days for them to perform a transfer of funds and $180 charge to to do so. Get this $15 FedEx to send a check. Send a check - you are in the finance business. Hit the computer button. $125 paperwork fee. $40 yearly account charge of which I just paid the 2020 fee less than 30 days prior but now I have to pay all of 2021 - not a proration. Run for the hills from LPL Financial.

[Accidental1]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Please talk to friends, ex-colleagues from work, and family to try and find an advisor you can trust. Then tell him about your market fears and give him all the information he needs to do his job (assets, income, debt, anticpated longevity etc.). Allow him to put together a plan and execute it. You can read along the way if you want to learn more about the markets. The plan will need to change over time due to changes in your age and market conditions. I'm 63 and have been with my advisor for about 20 years. At one point I thought I'd try and manage my assets myself but quickly learned I didn't have the stomach for it, or knowledge to do it. My advisor has talked me down several times when I wanted to cash out of stock funds (at the wrong times) and he's been right every time. Also, please ignore opinions found here on your asset allocation. Nobody here has enough of your personal information (which you shouldn't share anyway) to make any resonable judgements. Hire an advisor; in my opinion it's well worth the cost for folks that don't have the inclination or knowledge to do it themselves.

[Proveone]

Where are you "reading" the Stock Market is going to "Crash"? Did you instead hear it on Fox Noise or Noise Max cable. You better get another financial adviser.

[JanetMM]

Keep in mind if any investment advisor had all the answers they wouldn’t still be working. They would be retired with everyone else working for them. No one can really predict “the Market” because it runs off emotion al reaction to real and unreal events and a world wide reaction to those events. It will go up, it will go down, it will self-correct. “Spread your wealth around” then don’t watch the market daily. That is what your financial guy is supposed to do.

[ProfessorDave]

Few things. Bases on what you shared you got good advice from Tom and Grumpy. Ignore the cheap seats advice like knowing your age. You explained enough to know a conservative portfolio is best for you. Don't try to time the market. Stick with your plan. Good luck. And chill... you are in The Villages... God's gift to retirees.

[JoelJohnson]

A finance professor once told my class to "never invest beyond the sleeping point", in other words, if you have so much invested in the stock market that you can't sleep at night, take some out until you can.

[Albrita]

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

I relied on Vanguard for three decades and even consolidated Fidelity to Vanguard. Everything was converted to a IRA. I have no idea what Lincoln has for fees for the Mutual funds you probably have but Vanguard has the lowest in the industry the best I can figure. Go to Vanguard.Com as they have a lot of free information, meaning even without an account. I also use Vanguard Brokerage and trade for free. They have helped me sleep better!

Hope that helps.[/QUOTE]

[Fltpkr]

My suggestion is to check out the forum on Bogleheads. There are many sharp folks that post there with practical advice. Look for threads dealing with newbie or novice investors. Like any forum, do a lot or reading and form your own plan if you can. Otherwise, a fixed fee financial advisor who is a fiduciary may be a good starting point.

[ronl911]

This is the best answer in the entire thread. Pay the fee, see what they have to say, and go from there. A fiduciary is required by law to act in your best interests. Most likely, you will agree with their recommendations.

[collie1228]

I would have three comments. One, your investment mix is far from aggressive. In fact, I would consider it quite conservative. Two, everyone talks about a "market crash", but that is very misleading. Market "corrections" (a ten percent or more decrease in overall value) are a normal occurrence, and most knowledgeable investors know that they are actually healthy for markets. Trying to time investments around market corrections is a fools errand. And three, you should find a fiduciary financial advisor who must put your interests before their own. In other words, a fiduciary must give you advice without concern for their possible commissions from investments they suggest. You will have to pay this advisor, but you can generally trust the advice.

[jcgrether]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Many good suggestions on how to learn about investing or finding an advisor. However, there may be an easy way to get reasonable advice.

A 403b account is an employer sponsored plan that was typically provided by health, education and governmental type employers. It is, or was, also known as a tax sheltered annuity and used to only be offered through annuity companies. Today, I think many or most 403b plans have both annuity companies (like Lincoln Financial) and mutual fund companies (like Vanguard and Fidelity) to choose from. Before you try and find a professional advisor (a great suggestion by the way) you might contact your HR department at your employer as they may have assistance available.

Annuities are not bad investment vehicles for some situations, but they are more expensive than using a straight low-cost mutual fund family like Vanguard or Fidelity. Some annuities do have the ability to limit the downside potential of market volatility and for some people, this might be attractive.

I would start with your employer and see if they have someone that can help explain the fundamentals that should be considered in your situation.

Good luck

[Joe C.]

I'm by no means a financial wizard. Been retired 19 years, and have only used 30k of my principal in my retirement fund. My recommendation is to contact Blackston Financial (they are on Rt.466) and talk with one of their fiduciary persons. You have nothing to loose, and a lot to gain as far as finances and knowledge. Do it now, before the crap hits the fan.

[cj1040]

Agree

[Becca9800]

Wow! I'm overwhelmed by the many responses AND by all the knowledge out there. I've read every word of every response, please know that I sincerely appreciate your tips and your time to respond. THANK YOU!!!

Alrighty then, I feel better knowing my money is safe where it's at. It may not be in the best place but I no longer feel an urgent need to move it. And while I didn't want to have to know this stuff, I recognize that I must have at least a basic understanding. Next order of business: read the recommended books (I'm actually a bit excited by the idea of new knowledge) and then begin the hunt for a trusted advisor.

Thanks to each of you again!

[meridian5850]

Can you recommend a book, please?

This book will help.

Amazon.com (https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/0470919019/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1)

FYI, my 85 y.o. mother has an advisor she's used for years and he's done right by her. After she sold her home in OH and moved down here in Feb. she had me invest the proceeds from her home sale. I put her in Vanguard's Wellesley Income Fund, which has a good mix of stocks and bonds. Stocks make up almost 40% of it and the rest is bonds/cash. It's a fund with a good performance history, well managed and lets me sleep at night. My wife and I also have a position in it.

[Old Bob]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

I agree with Tom. Your portfolio is in good shape. Relax, and don't listen to all of the experts.

[rlcooper70]

Realize that you don't have to be a genius to succeed in the markets. Fidelity did an internal study a few years ago and found that the accounts that did best over time were those that were in "contested estates" ... meaning that no trades were allowed during contestation. In other words ... your plan should be to decide on a percentage of your assets to put in equity markets (mutual funds) and then do it. Forget timing the market (too complicated). And realize that paying someone to tell you which mutual funds to use is a waste of money. Go to the Fidelity office and get free advice.

[kendi]

You will always get conflicting opinions for most anything. Best course is to educate yourself at least to the point of being able to choose how much of your investments should be aggressive vs conservative. Then find an adviser who aligns with your thinking

[Dilligas]

You are asking financial advice from people who do not know you, your needs, your portfolio, your desires. Please. If you don’t trust your current financial advisor, get another one you trust. Then give the CFA your desires and your fears. The market and your portfolio will go up and down but over the long run should go up. Take financial news as information, not advice. Remember, media (print, digital, and TV) have the primary goal of selling advertising or subscriptions. Read on how markets work (not how to get rich) and why, by economics, supply & demand, political policies, and global news. That will help you better understand your CFA.

[DAVES]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

There will be all kinds of conflicting advice. Gone are the days where you could build a portfolio of treasury bonds and they would pay the rate of inflation plus 2%. Last time I looked a 10 year treasury was paying 1.4% and the CPI (consumer price index) was 5%.
You pay your bills AFTER TAXES are TAKEN. Depending on your TOP TAX bracket you need to make 5% plus your top tax bracket TO BE EVEN.

Advisors? The first question to ask is how are they paid. As much as they seem to like you, they too need to earn money. Some, too many, are commission salesmen claiming to be financial advisors. Those pushing annuities. The reason is very simple, the commissions are put of sight. Twenty percent is normal. Realize what that means you give them say 10,000 and they promise you say 7%. REALITY they have 10,000 less 20%
commission so 8,000 need to earn $700.

I do not know you. I do not know what you have or what you need. I do not know what is in what they call an aggressive retirement portfolio. You can easily get reviews of that fund on places like Morningstar and or Seeking Alpha. In a 403B there are probably several options. You do not need to have all you have in one option.

Fortunately. Today we have easy access to far more information than in the past, just using your computer.

Anyone giving you information on this site. Ask their motive. You should not provide
sufficient information on a public site for anyone to give you proper guidance. The point of my post.

[sjstorey76]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

The first thing you MUST realize is your 403 B is subject to a25% tax anytime to take money out! 403B is one of the worst being taxed….you may need to discuss options on it, because 25%. Is a huge number to pay tax to the government!

[Joe C.]

Why not get a fiduciary (don't go with a financial advisor)....there's a BIG difference.
And get the advice BEFORE reading the books. In other words, don't put the cart in front of the horse.

A financial advisor (certainly not all of them) may charge a commission up front, and take his money and leave your investment up to luck. Many advisors do "front end loading", and/or advise you to invest with their prime concern being them making money off of your investment.
A fiduciary doesn't do that, and by law, must answer to the state for any "screw ups" and possibly loose their license.

Just my 2 cents...(but with inflation, worth 25 cents).

[llamanca]

It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.

Just curious as to your thoughts on not transferring to an annuity. I have considered doing so. Don't want to make a mistake. Please expand. Thank you.

[dshoberg]

Can you recommend a book, please?
The Truth About Money by Ric Edelman is a very good educational reference to understanding money....

[juddfl]

Are you in high risk? Invest in a low to medium risk. Especially if you are an older senior citizen. Make sure you diversify. In other words invest your money in multiple stocks. If one goes down, another might go up. Also have bonds and cash. The most important thing for me is to have is, "Stops", put in. This way if one of your accounts starts to lose too much money, it will kick in and be sold and put into cash before you lose it all. It stops by what percentage you have set up. I use Gary Edwards at Wells Fargo. His number is 352-259-3000. He made it very easy for me to understand how my money was invested. Make an appointment to just talk to him. You don't have to invest with them.

[MidWestIA]

With your experience do the minimum decide % for stocks for example 30% then 70% bonds. Put the stocks in a total stock index like VTI then the the rest in total bond index like DODIX or BND and leave it. When stocks crash and VTI is just 25% move 5% of the bond into it or vice versa maybe every 6 months or after alot noise about the market. NEVER sell otherwise if you stay in with bad times you'll do fine.

BUT if you live on the 403b keep 2 years worth in a money market or high yield online savings like ally so you don't take out in bad times

I make the most money reallocating from bonds to stocks in like 2008 or 2020

[DAVES]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Further OPINION from me.
Terms like I'm ignorant frankly is not so. Too many people THINK they know but in reality they do not know that they do not know.
I need a financial guru. No you need to learn to prevent advisors from taking advantage of you. There is no shortage of tricks to line their pockets.
A 403B, you need to review what is available and FEES you are paying.
Others mentioned Fidelity. The three biggest brokerages are Fidelity,T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard. If, I am right, it does not matter, Vanguard is the biggest of the three, Fidelity is second and T.Rowe is third. It does not matter because all three of them are huge.
A big plus for Fidelity is that they have an office in Lake Sumter Landing. Far as I know T. Rowe has closed all their offices and Vanguard never had any.
I think it is a big plus to be able to set up an appointment and speak to a HUMAN face to face. Government forms as in a 403B a mistake is well a pain to correct. I have Fidelity guide me filling them out.

[Stu from NYC]

Why not get a fiduciary (don't go with a financial advisor)....there's a BIG difference.
And get the advice BEFORE reading the books. In other words, don't put the cart in front of the horse.





How does she understand the advise from an advisor if she does not understand investing at all?

[rustyp]

Why not get a fiduciary (don't go with a financial advisor)....there's a BIG difference.
And get the advice BEFORE reading the books. In other words, don't put the cart in front of the horse.

A financial advisor (certainly not all of them) may charge a commission up front, and take his money and leave your investment up to luck. Many advisors do "front end loading", and/or advise you to invest with their prime concern being them making money off of your investment.
A fiduciary doesn't do that, and by law, must answer to the state for any "screw ups" and possibly loose their license.

Just my 2 cents...(but with inflation, worth 25 cents).


Is there such a thing as "an official fiduciary license" ? If so what are the requirements and who issues the license ? I have asked many advisors are you a fiduciary. No one has ever said no back. What I do get is a list of this organization and that training etc. However what I don't see is a common piece of paper like in the Doctor's office on the wall that clearly says Doctor Degree of Medicine.

[dtyler8010]

Warren Buffet says that the purpose of market analysts is to make fortune-tellers look good.

[Spalumbos62]

How does she understand the advise from an advisor if she does not understand investing at all?



Who said she was a she?

[toeser]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.


I have been an investor for 55 years and was once a stock broker. My entire career was in finance. The simple truth is that no one knows when or how much the next crash will be. If the next crash were to be on the scale of 2008, then nothing is safe. While there were small number of exceptions, virtually everything went down in that crash.

If you really cannot afford to lose the money, then 100% of it should not be in the stock market. I know that 2.5% to 3% in absolutely safe bonds sucks, but at least you will still have your principal. Remember, if your advisors are wrong, neither will write you checks to cover losses.

Having said all that, I expect that the market will do O.K. for the next couple of years. We certainly could have a correction of 10% at any time, but I don't see a 2008 looming anytime soon.

[cbmerl]

I believe by any definition you already have a conservative asset allocation. Long term you need enough in equities to stay ahead of inflation. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. My suggestion would be to ignore the financial talking heads.

I agree. It appears that you are already conservatively invested. That's about the right mix for a conservative portfolio. You referred to it as aggressive. Maybe you were confused. I wouldn't worry about your money, unless you can not afford to lose even a tiny amount. Most times we make up what we lose within a reasonable time. Hope this helps.

[retiredguy123]

Just curious as to your thoughts on not transferring to an annuity. I have considered doing so. Don't want to make a mistake. Please expand. Thank you.
See Post No. 55.

[MrFlorida]

If the so called investment people knew what the market was going to do, they would be millionaires.

Wall Street Roulette.

[DAVES]

So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

As I've already said far as Lincoln check what you are paying for management fees. Whatever it is are you getting value for what you are paying? Your post indicates they are of no value to you. It might be your fault. You should be able to call Lincoln and the manager of your 403B and get advice.

On a 403B, check what I say, you should be able to transfer YOUR money into a self directed IRA with no tax penalties. I assume you are no longer working. I doubt your employer is still putting money into your retirement account.

[DAVES]

Who said she was a she?

It makes no difference-does it?

[DAVES]

So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....

Aggressive retirement portfolio. Sound to me like you are in a retirement date fund where they re balance based on your age. Your numbers 46.77 bonds, 27.47 bonds 25.76% cash. You have or should have or can get a statement of what you hold.
Might be interesting to run it through Morningstar fund x-ray, it is FREE and see what they say about your allocation. It should be close to what you say your allocation is.

[Two Bills]

Who said she was a she?

She said she was a she, and not a he in opening post.
However that may not cover all the gender requirements of the person in question.
Bathroom arrangements have so far definitely not been discussed!:icon_wink:

[DAVES]

If the so called investment people knew what the market was going to do, they would be millionaires.

Wall Street Roulette.

Being a millionaire does not mean what it once did. Remember that old TV show THE MILLIONAIRE. The premise was some wealthy person would anonymously give worthy people a check for a million and they were set for life. Today, due to inflation that check is now roughly a sixth of a million160,000.

[DAVES]

Warren Buffet says that the purpose of market analysts is to make fortune-tellers look good.

Reality re: Warren Buffet.
Listed as the greatest stock picker, He has a staff that explores and investigate the data.
He of course pays for that.

You could not, I cannot pay the salaries of his staff.

Buffet recently said do as I say not as I do. He did not beat the S&P average this year.
He has said publicly you/we should simply buy one of the index funds.

Buffet has also said that was a mistake I lost 45 million on that stock.
Was I to loose 45 million there would be a lot of people wondering how they were so stupid as to lend me that much money.

Even the adverb Buffet like is well nuts. You do not even trade in the same market as Buffet does. Nor do you need to disclose what you hold and what you are buying or selling.

[rustyp]

Back to the original question - is the stock market going to crash ? Answer historically is yes. The market has corrected every 4 - 7 years. The more important question is when ? Majority of scholars agree you can not time the market. However I predict by the end of this year. When all the protection for renters not paying rent and banks not able to foreclose expires ( I think around Sept?) landlords will find the renters are never going to pay back the rent. Where will that extra money for them to do so come from ? Landlords will have a sour taste and realize they are not in control of their own investment. Now couple loss of rent with loss of control and the realization the real estate market is red hot there will be a rush to sell to recoup. The rush to sell will flood the market with real estate and the housing market will crash. Many people equate high house values to wealth and that feel good feeling subconsciously drives them to spend. When the housing market crashes it will drastically stop the spending and bingo - crash.

[dewilson58]

Except the OP....................very entertaining thread. :yuck:

[stevesliders]

Talk to Kelley Pyles at Royal Fund Managment. 352-750-1637

[jimjamuser]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
If you can't "afford to lose it in a crash" as you stated - then you should have zero or a max of 10% in stocks. You need 90% in BONDS. I prefer to use ETFs (electronically traded funds) specifically for BONDS. The best way to buy and trade BONDS is to get an internet broker (like Ameritrade) and buy 2 ETFs.......BND, which is ALL US bonds, and BNDX, which is ALL European bonds. That IS a simple yet elegant system. You have VERY low risk and small STEADY GAINS. And you can convert to cash in 5 minutes by simply selling it yourself with a couple clicks of your mouse. Take care!

[jimjamuser]

You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.
Cool dog Grumpy look at my advice to her. But BND and BNDX.........VERY low risk - almost zero. And yes timing the market is tough and risky. That's why the former CEO of Vanguard designed ETFs. Brilliant dude!!!!!!

[jimjamuser]

See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
If you are worried......drop the stocks down to 15%. And don't buy INDIVIDUAL stocks. Buy the ETFs for ALL the Nasdaq (QQQ) and for ALL of New York Exchange (SPY).

[lindaelane]

(1) I am not sure why this portfolio is called "Aggressive" unless asset allocation changed over time and you are quite senior. Something seems wrong here. Aggressive means not conservative. (2) I strongly second the recommendation for Dave Ramsey "Total Money Makeover". (3) If you have $250,000 you can find a professional who is a "fiduciary" to work with. They must be a "ficuciary" of you could be put in products not appropriate for you, which give good commissions to the finance person. (4) There is nothing wrong with a good annuity, but they are very complex and good ones are hard to find. There is, however, a type of annuity called a SPIA - basically, you give then X amount of dollars and they give you X amount of dollars a month for life, no matter what happens. They are insurance products and none has defaulted in over 150 years, so you are safe in a SPIA but your rate of return will not be high and you must hold it for about 20 years, on average, to get back what you put in. Without taking a lower rate, if you die, you do not get back what is left of what you put in. Some conservative investors believe they should have an annuity to cover "basics" (house, utilities, gas, food, etc.) and other investments to purchase beyond basics. (5) Do you have a budget? This is important. Know your basic budget and what you can afford to spend beyond that. (6) You cannot know if the market is going to crash. If I were you, I would assume that half of what I have in stocks, and a third of what I have in bonds, **could** disappear and not come back for 8-10 years or so, but that that dire event is under 50 percent probable. Who actually knows how probable? Then I would decide how much I want to risk in order to get investment returns. (7) I might consider putting the rest of my money in TIPS, but I do not use TIPS so you should consult a professional about them. TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities - they go up with inflation but not more than inflation.

[zendog3]

True crashes, as opposed to normal market fluctuations, occur when something is fundamentally wrong in the market. These are not hard to spot, it is just that people don't want to see them coming. The tech bubble, the housing bubble, savings and loan crash.Anyone with half a brain could see them coming a year in advance. What do we have to worry about now? For decades the Republicans were for balanced budgets and the Dems were for investment. Then Ragan busted the budget and lowered taxes. Then Trump gave a huge tax break to the rich and lowered taxes, Now,the Dems are spending without raising taxes. That is a recipe for a crash. Average people are spending $500 K for houses. That is unsustainable. Above it all, wealth inequality is out of control 56 Americans own more of the nations wealth than 60% of the total population. Those things have crash written all over them.

Concerning investment. You are old. You need low risk, low fee investments. Don't pay a financial advisor. Educate yourself, then open an account with Vanguard and put your money in a market matching EFT or mutual fund. Safe, good returns, no fees.

The fees charged by a financial advisor eat into your earnings. They make it hard to see the fees they charge, but your money is putting their kids through Stanford.

[jimjamuser]

Can you recommend a book, please?
There is a book about Warren Buffet that is good. He also has an ETF like FUND that is as solid as SPY. It is designated BRKB

[jimjamuser]

Can you recommend a book, please?
There is a book by Somebody(?) Graham that is an all-time classic. It is quite technical.

[jimjamuser]

It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.
Yes, AVOID annuities. Run away if some so-called adviser mentions the word!!!!!!!!

[jimjamuser]

Did you vet the "experts". And that is not a surprise, ask 5 more and you will get 5 more types of advice.

And the absolute worst place to get advice on almost anything is online in a forum.
Come on Grumpy - my advice is good! Everyone loves your dog.

[jimjamuser]

So..... if my money is w Lincoln Financial, in an Aggressive Retirement portfolio (46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value) is it imperative that I understand asset allocation? Or can I trust Lincoln? This is truly a case of I don't know what I don't know. Honestly, I don't want to understand it, I want to be able to trust the experts. But as with all things, in the end.....
About 50% BONDS is NOT close to AGGRESSIVE. 90% stocks IS aggressive. You said you did NOT want that!!!!!!

[nan27]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
Hi Becca - Many people are in the same boat as you. I don't know your age; however, if you are in your 60's, I'm in your ballpark. :) I can tell you that I started investing in the stock market many years ago when I didn't know what the heck that I was doing. Thankfully, I somehow have made quite a bit; and that is with significant losses a few times.

We have most of our investments with a discount broker, Fidelity Investments. I myself have a significant portion of my investments in index funds and ETF's. I think that is something you should consider. I have invested in S&P 500 index fund, balanced index fund (both stocks and bonds), health index fund, NASDAQ ETF. All have done quite well.

You could call Fidelity Investments and talk to a representative there and explain exactly what you have said in your post. They should be able to guide you how to invest. I want to warn you though: I would not recommend their "professionally" managed arm. You pay for that, whether your investments gain or lose.

They will be happy to transfer your money to their company and guide you as to what type of funds in which to invest, depending on your risk tolerance.

[jimjamuser]

To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.
Inflation has been non-existent for many recent years. It has ticked up a little recently (from a low base). That's why the market is up big-time. She sounds (to me) like she NEEDS about 15% in stocks. Since she has ACKNOWLEDGED that she is naive (in the market) and open to exploitation by many local brokers.

[jimjamuser]

To be upfront, I know absolutely nothing about Lincoln Financial. If your asset allocation is truly 27/73 (stocks/fixed income) and they are calling that their "aggressive portfolio", I would look elsewhere.

Having said that, 27/73 would be considered very conservative but may be appropriate if it lets you sleep at night. However, most advisors say you need at least 40-50% equities (stocks) to keep up with inflation.

I would suggest you visit bogleheads.org . John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard. Spend some time on the forum. Introduce yourself and ask questions. Explore the Wiki. There is also a recommended reading list.

Hope that helps.
Most advisors like you to buy INDIVIDUAL stocks so they can make maximum profits and KEEP turning you over!!!!!!

[jimjamuser]

Right. That much I get. The real question.... do I leave my money where it is, is it safe from any market crash? Or do I need to move it to a safer place?
The only thing that may be safer than ETFs for bonds would be maybe(?) GOLD and there is an ETF for that even. I don't think that is necessary in today's economy.

[jimjamuser]

Your advice is very worthwhile. I can't thank you enough! THANK YOU!!!
The Village HAD (or may still have) an investment CLUB. I used to go to many of their meetings. Many SMART investors were there SHARING their knowledge. You might be intimidated at first by how advanced they are.

[Stu from NYC]

There is a book by Somebody(?) Graham that is an all-time classic. It is quite technical.

Benjamin

He is a good book to start with

[jimjamuser]

Yes, the market will go down. No one knows when.
No, you should not change your current holdings.
FYI: The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. The average length of a bull market is 973 days or about 2.7 years.
I don't think so. I think that Bull markets average 11 years. This current one exceeds that.

[Bob G]

NO advisor has ever beaten the market long term.

[jimjamuser]

True crashes, as opposed to normal market fluctuations, occur when something is fundamentally wrong in the market. These are not hard to spot, it is just that people don't want to see them coming. The tech bubble, the housing bubble, savings and loan crash.Anyone with half a brain could see them coming a year in advance. What do we have to worry about now? For decades the Republicans were for balanced budgets and the Dems were for investment. Then Ragan busted the budget and lowered taxes. Then Trump gave a huge tax break to the rich and lowered taxes, Now,the Dems are spending without raising taxes. That is a recipe for a crash. Average people are spending $500 K for houses. That is unsustainable. Above it all, wealth inequality is out of control 56 Americans own more of the nations wealth than 60% of the total population. Those things have crash written all over them.

Concerning investment. You are old. You need low risk, low fee investments. Don't pay a financial advisor. Educate yourself, then open an account with Vanguard and put your money in a market matching EFT or mutual fund. Safe, good returns, no fees.

The fees charged by a financial advisor eat into your earnings. They make it hard to see the fees they charge, but your money is putting their kids through Stanford.
Pretty good post - Zen Doggy Dog. You are correct. The wealth disparity IS the US's greatest and most URGENT problem. That's why people look favorably on the 50s and 1960s when wealth was distributed MOSTLY evenly throughout the middle class. Note: unions were active then and off-shoring had NOT yet started. US society IS on a knife's edge today due to wealth disparity and other factors. The stock market works fine for the upper 10% of America. It CAN work for the middle class, but they MUST be SHARP! Home ownership has NEVER worked for the lower classes so they are volatile in this volatile time. Other US problems are Global Warming and overpopulation! Incidentally, Warren Buffet has warned of the excess population for many years. Check the Wickipedia entry on Buffet about this!

[jimjamuser]

Hi Becca - Many people are in the same boat as you. I don't know your age; however, if you are in your 60's, I'm in your ballpark. :) I can tell you that I started investing in the stock market many years ago when I didn't know what the heck that I was doing. Thankfully, I somehow have made quite a bit; and that is with significant losses a few times.

We have most of our investments with a discount broker, Fidelity Investments. I myself have a significant portion of my investments in index funds and ETF's. I think that is something you should consider. I have invested in S&P 500 index fund, balanced index fund (both stocks and bonds), health index fund, NASDAQ ETF. All have done quite well.

You could call Fidelity Investments and talk to a representative there and explain exactly what you have said in your post. They should be able to guide you how to invest. I want to warn you though: I would not recommend their "professionally" managed arm. You pay for that, whether your investments gain or lose.

They will be happy to transfer your money to their company and guide you as to what type of funds in which to invest, depending on your risk tolerance.
I agree with THAT post. Just 2 or so ETFs are all that is NEEDED.

[jimjamuser]

Benjamin

He is a good book to start with
Thank you Stu !!!!!

[PugMom]

You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.

what he said--excellent info. there are stocks that will always earn $$ no matter what the climate is in the country

[Janie123]

The market is like a roller coaster and the only ones that get hurt are the ones who jump off. Read The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey

[rustyp]

The market is like a roller coaster and the only ones that get hurt are the ones who jump off. Read The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey

Dave Ramsey - shock jock

I retired at 52 yrs old. Doing fine without "financial advisors" at 17 years latter. One must ask themselves why am I listening to you when I'm living the golden lifestyle and you are still hawking. Dave Ramsey is no spring chicken. Oh but he loves what he does. Really watch his demeanor.

[wmcgowan]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Go see Edelman Financial and get an appraisal on/of your situation:
Talk With One of Our Financial Advisors. No Cost. No Obligation (https://www.edelmanfinancialengines.com/b/lp/?sem_account_id=7959694373&sem_campaign_id=1616939480&sem_ad_group_id=120439069913&sem_device_type=c&sem_keyword=edelman%20financial&sem_matchtype=e&sem_placement=&sem_ad_id=504406851032&sem_network=g&sem_target_id=kwd-13848872738&sem_feed_item_id=&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpcb&utm_term=edelman%20financial&utm_campaign=TS_B_Brand_EdelmanFinancialEngines_Ex actMatch&adgroup=&keyword=edelman%20financial&utm_device=c&advisor=Financial+Advisor&product=Investment+Plan&campaign_phone=8885052276&kwid=&PID=23266&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIxPib-NSQ8QIVh5WzCh1Q_wjwEAAYASAAEgInZvD_BwE)

[Tom52]

I don't think so. I think that Bull markets average 11 years. This current one exceeds that.

A bear market is defined as a drop of at least 20% from recent highs of major indexes DOW or S&P. This happened most recently in March thru August 2020, so this bull market is not yet a year old.

[wmcgowan]

Can you recommend a book, please?

The Truth About Money:
Access to this page has been denied. (https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-truth-about-money_ric-edelman/291120/item/4209846/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-Ivwk9aQ8QIVDJfICh1AZQUaEAYYASABEgJzN_D_BwE#idiq=42 09846&edition=5903362)

[DAVES]

Go see Edelman Financial and get an appraisal on/of your situation:
Talk With One of Our Financial Advisors. No Cost. No Obligation (https://www.edelmanfinancialengines.com/b/lp/?sem_account_id=7959694373&sem_campaign_id=1616939480&sem_ad_group_id=120439069913&sem_device_type=c&sem_keyword=edelman%20financial&sem_matchtype=e&sem_placement=&sem_ad_id=504406851032&sem_network=g&sem_target_id=kwd-13848872738&sem_feed_item_id=&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpcb&utm_term=edelman%20financial&utm_campaign=TS_B_Brand_EdelmanFinancialEngines_Ex actMatch&adgroup=&keyword=edelman%20financial&utm_device=c&advisor=Financial+Advisor&product=Investment+Plan&campaign_phone=8885052276&kwid=&PID=23266&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIxPib-NSQ8QIVh5WzCh1Q_wjwEAAYASAAEgInZvD_BwE)

You get nothin for nothin. Some never learn that. Took me two times. One was free stamps that used to be on matchbook covers. The other was free land in Florida.
I did get the stamps and I did spend a few bucks with them for the FREE STAMPS.

Land in Florida, that was amusing. The scams were all over the place for land that was literally underwater. They were hounding me until my dad told them the truth I was like 13 at the time and my allowance was ????? somewhere between a quarter or a dollar per week.

The information you give them, age, net worth, where your money is now and how much
you have is worth a fortune to them. It is amusing, spell your name slightly wrong and you will be able to have an idea about where they sell your should PRIVATE INFORMATION.

[DAVES]

Dave Ramsey - shock jock

I retired at 52 yrs old. Doing fine without "financial advisors" at 17 years latter. One must ask themselves why am I listening to you when I'm living the golden lifestyle and you are still hawking. Dave Ramsey is no spring chicken. Oh but he loves what he does. Really watch his demeanor.

Not in my league. Warren Buffet, often listed as the greatest stock picker. The guy is 86 years old. He regularly says he buys for long term. Does he have a different actuarial table than the rest of us?

[DAVES]

Pretty good post - Zen Doggy Dog. You are correct. The wealth disparity IS the US's greatest and most URGENT problem. That's why people look favorably on the 50s and 1960s when wealth was distributed MOSTLY evenly throughout the middle class. Note: unions were active then and off-shoring had NOT yet started. US society IS on a knife's edge today due to wealth disparity and other factors. The stock market works fine for the upper 10% of America. It CAN work for the middle class, but they MUST be SHARP! Home ownership has NEVER worked for the lower classes so they are volatile in this volatile time. Other US problems are Global Warming and overpopulation! Incidentally, Warren Buffet has warned of the excess population for many years. Check the Wickipedia entry on Buffet about this!

Much of what we think and remember is simply false or at least not MY reality. I was born in 1950. My dad was a wounded WWII COMBAT vet who did two tours of duty in the Philippines. He was one of less than 50 guys in his original battalion, roughly 600 men, to survive WWII.

My parents according to our press raise me wrong. I was taught you work for what you need and what you want. My parents helped to pay for my college education. I worked through college and at summer jobs and paid the rest. On graduation. planning on taking time off I got a note from the bank congratulations on your graduation, you first loan payment is due, if I recall it was in two months. In today's dollars I owed 91,000.
Real number 13,000 x 7.

I was an overnight success, it only took me 45 years if hard work and savings. There is no shortage of opportunity.

Envy, thought that someone else owes you. It is of far more value to learn how others succeeded rather than wasting time trying to justify stealing what others have produced.

Re: global warming, over population.
More sad typical thought Since 1950 the year of my birth the population has roughly doubled 180 million to 350 million today. Blacks were 6% of the population Today 13%
roughly four times.

Sadly typical politically correct mind control. The thought is not what I can, what I should do but what someone else should do.

The evil 1% so often parroted. Sadly TYPICAL hate tactics. Unite the mindless MOB against 1%. Well you still have hope that 99% will parrot your HATE and vote for you.

Hate is a powerful mindless tool. It has been used successfully throughout history.
Interesting reality. Hitler in his insane HATE said the Jews were the route of all evil.
United in HATE his people followed him. Few objected. Everyone want to be in the in group. Children were most easily influenced. The numbers are interesting. Hitler and his people murdered half the Jews in Europe. Being great at record keeping we know 6 million Jews were murdered. Simple math so there were 12 million Jews in Europe.
In 1945 the population of Europe was 450 million people. Jews were thus 5% of the population.

Hum same exact tactics 1% vs 5% is the problem.

The numbers were we to take everything the top 1% have. Send them to the ovens as Hitler did, it would not pay half of our current national debt.

[valuemkt]

See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?

An allocation such as yours would not be called an AGGRESSIVE Portfolio, regardless of your age. If, as you say, this is your complete savings (save perhaps your house), it might actually be called too conservative. An "old" rule of thumb had a 60% stock / 40% bond allocation for retirees, others had percentages based upon your age... eg if you were 70, maybe only 30% stocks, 80 - 20% STOCKS.. But that was when you could get a decent amount of interest on fixed income investments (bond like) and also do something called Laddered CDs, whereby you could also get a decent amount of interest by purchasing bank certificates of deposit with varying maturities.

Are you currently protected on the downside ? Yes.. Let's say this account is today worth $ 100,000. (The numbers are the same with $1 million or 10million). That means you have $27,500 invested in stocks. If the stock market totally crashed and went down 50%, your account value would "only" be down $ 13,750, since the bulk of it isnt affected by stock market turbulence. If anything, however, you can be a victim of inflation, as neither your bonds nor your cash . stable value yield much more than zero. If we do have a surge in inflation, your bond portfolio would most likely go down as well, as interest rates would rise, causing bond prices to fall. You might want to consider a "fee only" financial planner.. someone that IS NOT a stock broker that can assess your financial situation.. eg current course and speed, will you outlive your portfolio (bad) or will your portfolio outlive you (better). They will be able to put your spending and savings into perspective so that you will be able to Sleep well at night (SWAN) knowing that your financial affairs are in good order.

[lgordon013]

The best advice that can be given to you is 1) talk to friends and see who they use or 2) utilize the services of a Mutual Fund Company like Fidelity or Vanguard. Both have online information to learn about the stock market and also they have advisors that you can talk with. There happens to be a Fidelity office in Lake Sumter. Your money is too precious to take advice from non professionals.

[jimhurtt@twc.com]

Becca: in my opinion that is an excellent allocation of your allocation. Rule of thumb is your age should determine percentage. For example if you are 65 years old then 65% of your holdings should be in what would be considered safe investments, i.e. bonds, money market, etc.. The other 35% could be placed in stocks so you could some short term growth potential.

[Toymeister]

Becca,
I would study the best practices of large 401k (403b) and mimic those plans.

The largest in the world and best 401k plan has all of its allocation plans for all age targeted plans on line by asset class.

You can view it on Home | Thrift Savings Plan (http://www.tsp.gov). The thrift savings plan was started in 1984 when Federal employees were shifted from a solid pension plan to a weak one with a 401k. It is free of all political influence. The other element of success for TSP is low operating cost. Vanguard investments comes the closest to this commercially

[Miriam2940]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

You DO need someone who is knowledgeable about investments. I recommend Senior Financial, a small firm who takes an interest in helping you stay afloat for the rest of your life. I was in the same boat, I knew little about stocks and the stock market. My husband handled all that but now he was gone and I was clueless. They really helped. Jean Darrell owns the firm but my advisor is Josh Cruz, the phone number is 866-829-3337
Good luck!

[J1ceasar]

Actually many dividend stocks can lose a lot of value and cut their dividends so I would be extremely careful and even if you only have 20% in stocks make sure it's spread it around to at least 10 different stocks or wanted to good mutual funds or spiders

[J1ceasar]

As many people have said you probably have a pretty good allocation depending on your age quantity of money and if you have other retirement benefits. I would say if you're living in The villages and you have SS and the money in the bank you're doing okay. There are many other risks as you approach older age as I say including debilitating diseases and long-term healthcare in a home. Both you can buy insurance for but it will be very expensive today probably at your senior age. The other thing you don't talk about is if you have good children. And I mean good. Sons and daughters that will come visit you or take you in if you get dementia or reach your late 90s and need day by day help. These are things I don't worry about as I know I have three great children as well as a wife. There are many people that marry somebody 10 or 20 years younger for this reason. If you have a lot of capital I wouldn't necessarily do this but it's just another thought.

[Malsua]

Becca: in my opinion that is an excellent allocation of your allocation. Rule of thumb is your age should determine percentage. For example if you are 65 years old then 65% of your holdings should be in what would be considered safe investments, i.e. bonds, money market, etc.. The other 35% could be placed in stocks so you could some short term growth potential.

Age is really a bad way to set your allocation. I realize this prior "method" was simply a surrogate for Health and risk tolerance but it is a poor investment strategy. There are sickly 50 year olds and healthy 80 year olds. There are rich 50 year olds and poor 80 year olds and the opposite.

If you can weather a market correction and you can live without your retirement funds age adjusting your asset into bonds, which have not performed much at all in recent years, means you're just leaving money on the table and probably actually losing money due to inflation.

The same goes for money market/cash. If you need the liquid assets, fair enough, keep in there what you need but if you don't, put it somewhere it's going to earn. There are fairly conservative mutual funds that consistently return 4-6% even in flat and bear markets.

It's a risk/reward calculation and basing it on age without factoring in a lot of other details of your life and needs doesn't do anyone any good.

There is no question you should go more conservative with age, this issue is how much and 35% in growth for a healthy 65YO is bad, as is 50% in stocks for a sickly 50YO.

[meridian5850]

The Truth About Money by Ric Edelman is a very good educational reference to understanding money....


I agree and we refer to this book from time to time. Have read several of his books. Very easy to read and understand. Ric does a good job explaining things.

[Laurel Maryland]

I found this book helpful: "The 5 Mistakes Every Investor Makes and How to Avoid Them. Getting Investing Right." by Peter Mallouk, JD.MBA. Publisher is Wiley Publications

[Becca9800]

Aggressive retirement portfolio. Sound to me like you are in a retirement date fund where they re balance based on your age. Your numbers 46.77 bonds, 27.47 bonds 25.76% cash. You have or should have or can get a statement of what you hold.
Might be interesting to run it through Morningstar fund x-ray, it is FREE and see what they say about your allocation. It should be close to what you say your allocation is.

Hi DAVES! I ran my holdings thru the Morningstar fund x-ray. NOTE: nearly 26% of my total investments are in Lincoln's Stable Value Account, no ticker symbol(it's an annuity :shocked:), and I don't know how the Morningstar assessment was affected by not including 1/4 of my holdings.

Asset Allocation: Your portfolio is moderately risky.
Diversification: Your overall portfolio style: Core. For most investors, maintaining such broad-based market exposure is a prudent way to invest.
Fees & Expenses: The mutual funds in your portfolio tend to have very low expense ratios.
World Regions: You have a fairly healthy stake in foreign stocks.

Thanks for the suggestion to take that look!

To All, again a big thanks for the opinions and gentle prods. I have more knowledge today than I did 2 days ago (reading until my eyes crossed) but still have a looooonnng way to go. Thanks again, very appreciated!

[SERENITY52]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
I heard a rule of thumb is to keep your age as a percentage in conservative sectors

[bp243]

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

According to my CFP advisor, the rule of thumb for investments is to consider your age which takes into account the possibility of a crash. Based on 100, if you are 70 then 70% of your $ should be in as safe a place as possible (money markets, bank, etc). The other 30% can be in stocks, bonds and other more volatile choices. A correction will typically happen often, although a true crash takes years to recover which is why the rule of thumb seems to work.

[retiredguy123]

Hi DAVES! I ran my holdings thru the Morningstar fund x-ray. NOTE: nearly 26% of my total investments are in Lincoln's Stable Value Account, no ticker symbol(it's an annuity :shocked:), and I don't know how the Morningstar assessment was affected by not including 1/4 of my holdings.

Asset Allocation: Your portfolio is moderately risky.
Diversification: Your overall portfolio style: Core. For most investors, maintaining such broad-based market exposure is a prudent way to invest.
Fees & Expenses: The mutual funds in your portfolio tend to have very low expense ratios.
World Regions: You have a fairly healthy stake in foreign stocks.

Thanks for the suggestion to take that look!

To All, again a big thanks for the opinions and gentle prods. I have more knowledge today than I did 2 days ago (reading until my eyes crossed) but still have a looooonnng way to go. Thanks again, very appreciated!
If 26 percent of your 403B account is in an annuity, that is even more reason to transfer the money to an personal IRA with Vanguard or Fidelity. You should be able to cash out the 403B, get rid of the annuity, and take control of your own money. But, make sure Vanguard or Fidelity does a direct transfer with no income tax consequences.

[Becca9800]

If 26 percent of your 403B account is in an annuity, that is even more reason to transfer the money to an personal IRA with Vanguard or Fidelity. You should be able to cash out the 403B, get rid of the annuity, and take control of your own money. But, make sure Vanguard or Fidelity does a direct transfer with no income tax consequences.

Retiredguy123, that was exactly the response I knew I'd get from you and a few others, hence the shocked eyes when confessing to the holding! I absolutely will follow your advice. I've been reading about annuities and everything you and the others wrote was backed up. Now I'm going to stop beating myself for my ignorance, I also read that many did just what I did, make regular contributions and let someone else manage the investments. But now it's more important to me that I know where my money is. Somewhere along the way I got old enough to retire, I didn't think it would happen so fast. I appreciate all your advice and the time you took to pass it along. Thank you!!

[PugMom]

i got the exact opposite from his message. much food for thought can't be disposed of so quickly

[dewilson58]

Full Speed Ahead.

Heavily invested in stocks.

Rock 'n Roll

2021 Midyear Outlook | Wells Fargo Investment Institute (https://www.wellsfargo.com/investment-institute/2021-midyear-outlook/)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Depends upon the definition of crash. . . hyperbole for sure!
5% correction by the end of the year definitely.
10% correction by year end, probably,
20% correction, maybe,
30% correction not likely but probability is never zero

So, now, what are you going to do at each level, based upon your age, your financial needs and your financial assets?

If you don't know, then you need a CFP for some guidance as to your own personal situation. . . which is not a TOTV place to educate yourself.

good luck