Evacuating FLA??

[Heartnsoul]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

[tuccillo]

The guidance from Miami (see link below) has the "cone of panic" twice the width of Florida on Tuesday afternoon and it is expected to be of tropical storm intensity. The latest GFS simulation has it making landfall on the eastern part of the FL panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. In summary, it is still pretty far out. Tell your friends to calm down.

HURRICANE ELSA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/205743.shtml?cone#contents)

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

[MrFlorida]

Hurricanes are part of living here .

[Arctic Fox]

Hurricanes are part of living here .

as is over-reacting - worrying that every tropical warning is going to be the "storm of the century"

[VApeople]

afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad.

Glad we are not living in glad.

[Stu from NYC]

The guidance from Miami (see link below) has the "cone of panic" twice the width of Florida on Tuesday afternoon and it is expected to be of tropical storm intensity. The latest GFS simulation has it making landfall on the eastern part of the FL panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. In summary, it is still pretty far out. Tell your friends to calm down.

HURRICANE ELSA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/205743.shtml?cone#contents)

Guess we will wait and panic at the last minute.

[EdFNJ]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this? Maybe "your friends" should check with the Nat'l Weather Service or the National Hurricane Center ???

You obviously have internet access so for more professional info than all the weather prognosticators here try these: :D

National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
National Weather Service (https://www.weather.gov/)

[Mortal1]

People have to do what makes them feel safe/comfortable. No place is safe from natural disasters.

[golfing eagles]

People have to do what makes them feel safe/comfortable. No place is safe from natural disasters.

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.

[tuccillo]

No need to ever panic. I gave you the link to the Miami hurricane center guidance. Use it.

Guess we will wait and panic at the last minute.

[golfing eagles]

Guess we will wait and panic at the last minute.

I assume you were being disingenuous. But seriously, no one should panic. After all, when they do evacuate for a hurricane, THIS is the place they evacuate those people TO

[Carla B]

One of the reasons we moved here was to "get away" from hurricanes in Southeast FL. Too few evacuation routes...either up I-95 or across Alligator Alley to SW Fl and then up I-75. Gridlock.

[villagetinker]

If you and your friends are in the villages, this is generally regarded as 'shelter in place' location. Irma came directly over TV a few years ago, wind gusts hit around 115 MPH, somewhere around 15 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. There was very little damage, some relatively minor flooding and the major power disruptions were in the historic areas. Also, we are inland and the storms lose intensity as they move over land. IMHO, the local television stations and papers have hurricane guides follow these, we are staying put.

[photo1902]

No need to ever panic. I gave you the link to the Miami hurricane center guidance. Use it.

///

[tuccillo]

The path of Irma was actually west of us - the center of the circulation did not pass directly over The Villages. At that point, it was probably a tropical storm in intensity and the exact path is really not of much consequence since the circulation was pretty wide but it is a misconception that the center of the circulation passed over The Villages.

If you and your friends are in the villages, this is generally regarded as 'shelter in place' location. Irma came directly over TV a few years ago, wind gusts hit around 115 MPH, somewhere around 15 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. There was very little damage, some relatively minor flooding and the major power disruptions were in the historic areas. Also, we are inland and the storms lose intensity as they move over land. IMHO, the local television stations and papers have hurricane guides follow these, we are staying put.

[CFrance]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.
How can you just assume he's a moron because he's bicycling with a mask on? I bet he doesn't get any dragonflies in his mouth!

[Garywt]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.
Only you can compare a hurricane to wearing a mask. Have you looked in the mirror…. Why do you care if someone is wearing a mask and then call them a moron for wearing it. Grow up.

[Carla B]

The path of Irma was actually west of us - the center of the circulation did not pass directly over The Villages. At that point, it was probably a tropical storm in intensity and the exact path is really not of much consequence since the circulation was pretty wide but it is a misconception that the center of the circulation passed over The Villages.

I'll listen to Tucillo. I think he's a meteorologist.

[golfing eagles]

Only you can compare a hurricane to wearing a mask. Have you looked in the mirror…. Why do you care if someone is wearing a mask and then call them a moron for wearing it. Grow up.

You grow up! Decisions about masks and hurricanes should be based on factual information, not "feelings".

[DAVES]

Only you can compare a hurricane to wearing a mask. Have you looked in the mirror…. Why do you care if someone is wearing a mask and then call them a moron for wearing it. Grow up.

Endless similar posts from this guy.

[DAVES]

Only you can compare a hurricane to wearing a mask. Have you looked in the mirror…. Why do you care if someone is wearing a mask and then call them a moron for wearing it. Grow up.

As I said a waste of time.

[Stu from NYC]

I assume you were being disingenuous. But seriously, no one should panic. After all, when they do evacuate for a hurricane, THIS is the place they evacuate those people TO

I was trying to be funny. The ground here is great at absorbing moisture and we feel very safe from hurricanes.

Now tornadoes or sink holes that is a horse of another color.

[tsmall22204]

Thats correct. If you PANIC every time a hurricane is mentioned, you are living in the wrong state.

[bobeaston]

A couple of days ago, the Villages Newcomers" hosted David Castro, Sumter County Emergency Management Director, for a discussion about what to do in emergencies.

One of the points he made was that recent tropical storm activity has not seriously harmed this area, that homes in The Villages are constructed to modern hurricane survival standards, and that the best thing for us is to shelter in our homes, not wander out in to the chaos of those jamming the highways trying to exit the area.

Watch the interview here: Emergencies in The Villages, Florida - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5g8tAGWoDR0) and/or visit the Sumter County Emergency Preparedness site for more info: Emergency Management | Sumter County, FL - Official Website (http://sumterprepares.com)

That site has preparedness tips and offers an alert service.

Mr. Castro mentioned that surrounding counties have very similar sites and advice.

[banjobob]

I hope this is a joke posting , the weather shows love to hype storms to get viewers , if a real hurricane is on the way you should have your supplies in place and follow officials directions.

[Hpy2BHere]

Glad we are not living in glad.

Where is glad?

[Travelingal702]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?
Oh Oh, time to run out and stock up on water, bread and toilet paper

[jswirs]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.

No offense intended here, but I have and will continue to trust my own common sense, (as you said, that which makes sense), before I trust any "Expert". I have not successfully ascended into my 70's by doing what others have deemed necessary. I have learned that too many "Experts" in this world are primarily experts in in their own success, be that success notoriety, financial, or both. "Experts" and "common sense" are not always congruent.

[davephan]

The hurricane is too far out till Sunday to know with more certainty about the risks.There are some things you can do now. Don’t drive around with a nearly empty gas tank. You can fill up your gas tank when it’s gone down to 3/4 full. Buy some five gallon gas cans and fill them up too. Make sure that you know your insurance information, in case you will need it.

We also keep about 20 cases of water, about 12 cases of paper towels, and about 12 cases of toilet paper. We don’t have our whole house electric generator yet, that we ordered in January, but we have flashlights and lanterns. We have a lot of non perishable food. We have a grill with a full propane tank, plus an extra propane tank.

At some point, you have to make the decision to evacuate or stay. Many people say if the hurricane is a category 4 or 5, they evacuate. If you wait too long to evacuate, it might be 5 mph for hundreds of miles. Along the way, there will be dead cars that are clogging up the roads that are simply unreliable cars, or they ran out of gas. Many people wait till their gas tank is empty before they refill their gas tank. That’s a bad habit. You might need those extra 5 gallon gas cans that are all full, if it takes hours to fill up your gas tank or the gas stations run out of fuel on the way up north. If you wait too long, it’s too dangerous to evacuate. If you evacuate too early, then you might have evacuated for nothing if the hurricane weakens or changed course away from your location. If you’re too stressed out, then it’s better to evacuate sooner than later.

[Annie66]

Guess we will wait and panic at the last minute.

Why panic ...... throw a party!

[scottiesrgreat@gmail.com]

:-(

[Annie66]

The path of Irma was actually west of us - the center of the circulation did not pass directly over The Villages. At that point, it was probably a tropical storm in intensity and the exact path is really not of much consequence since the circulation was pretty wide but it is a misconception that the center of the circulation passed over The Villages.

In reality, when a northbound hurricane, like Irma, passes to the west of you, the winds are more dangerous in that location (thus it is called the more dangerous semi-circle). The Hurricane winds are amplified by the speed of advance. The right side of a hurricane may see winds upwards of 20 MPH faster than in the approaching eye of the storm. Likewise, on the left side of the hurricane path, the winds are decreased by the speed of advance.

[thevillages2013]

The path of Irma was actually west of us - the center of the circulation did not pass directly over The Villages. At that point, it was probably a tropical storm in intensity and the exact path is really not of much consequence since the circulation was pretty wide but it is a misconception that the center of the circulation passed over The Villages.
Northeast eye wall is the strongest part of a hurricane . We were here for it and it wasn’t a walk in the park. Trees down, fences demolished. We will be riding this one out too if it comes here. What the last hurricane did as far as damage has nothing to do with what the next one has in store.

[chipd331]

like Ron white says
"YOU CAN'T FIX STUPID"!!!!!!!!!

[noslices1]

If you and your friends are in the villages, this is generally regarded as 'shelter in place' location. Irma came directly over TV a few years ago, wind gusts hit around 115 MPH, somewhere around 15 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. There was very little damage, some relatively minor flooding and the major power disruptions were in the historic areas. Also, we are inland and the storms lose intensity as they move over land. IMHO, the local television stations and papers have hurricane guides follow these, we are staying put.

I was here during Irma, but we didn’t get 115 mph winds. I think the max was somewhere between 65-75 mph. The “Eye” came right over the Villages, but it had flattened out, so the winds were not that bad.

[Rwirish]

Run and take cover now. This could be very, very bad. Run.

[RICH1]

Get new friends !

[Bogie Shooter]

Endless similar posts from this guy.

There are a lot of guys like that on here,

[allsport]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?


The first year I lived here we had 3 storms pass over. The first 2 I moved everything and it was just like a normal downpour. The 3rd time I did not move anything and that was the worst one and still nothing happened.
The biggest problem was a couple of years ago when the power went out for days in certain parts of TV that should have had stable power. Supposedly that has been fixed, the Lake Ella station was the SECO problem. I knew the people by name that I kept calling.
Tell your friends to relax, not nearly as bad as a tornado up north. We are too far off the water.

[tuccillo]

No, the center of the circulation did not come right over The Villages. It was just to the east of Crystal River and west of The Villages. This is actually tracked accurately because the NCEP accumulates forecasted path error statistics for the NWP models. Again, it really doesn't matter that much as the circulation was large and the intensity had dropped significantly.

Maps: Tracking Hurricane Irma’s Path Over Florida - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html)


I was here during Irma, but we didn’t get 115 mph winds. I think the max was somewhere between 65-75 mph. The “Eye” came right over the Villages, but it had flattened out, so the winds were not that bad.

[drcar41@aol.com]

Correct about this being an evacuation area (place for people to come) in Florida. Been here 16 years and rode out several. Stay calm and be smart. No need to bing buy gas and water.

[Eg_cruz]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?
European model has it breaking up over the Cuba mountains……
I think the weather man has a deal with the water companies…..I’ll scare them with the “quote unquote hurricane” and you sell them the water….okey deal

[Keysers]

When we lived in South Florida we evacuated inland TO Central Florida. We didn’t evacuate at all unless the storm was a Cat 3 or stronger.

[Altavia]

Correct about this being an evacuation area (place for people to come) in Florida. Been here 16 years and rode out several. Stay calm and be smart. No need to bing buy gas and water.

Exactly and probably why the emergency staging area for SECO is just south of the turnpike near the intersection of 470 and 501.

[Altavia]

At what point do they start to flood the golf courses?

[tuccillo]

Here is the latest guidance from Miami. They continue to keep it downgraded to a tropical storm once it gets up to our latitude and they keep the path mostly off shore. The run to run GFS guidance looks pretty consistent. At this point, we will probably see some gusty winds and showers. It is still far out - south of the Dominican Republic.

HURRICANE ELSA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/120029.shtml?cone#contents)

[J1ceasar]

Personally I would not live on either Coast as statistically they get hurricanes pretty much regularly every year or so and it can be pretty bad. For those of us living in Central Florida lake and Sumter. There is less cause for concern as well the hurricanes do come by the time they reach us they are tropical storms have lower intensity. I'm not saying they're not good but they're not as bad as because and we still can get 90 mph winds. In other words checking your lawn furniture and your gnomes. If you're a newer resident, you should always have a few extra gallons of water in your pantry and some extra cans of tuna fish, just because you never know what is going to be a power outage or a problem with the water for a few days. As a famous movie said " Don't panic" . We had a transformer go down in our community and half the homes were out for 20 plus hours. However that was only once in the 20 plus years I have been here

[Topspinmo]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

So, where they going to go? Unless it’s at least 500 miles west and 500 mile north how know won’t travel in the path and possibly run into spin off tornado? So far the tropical storms in middle of state has been like stormy windy day in Oklahoma. When storm approaches you in Oklahoma you prepare to get underground. Now, if I was right on coast I would be concerned. But, they knew that when moved to coast. IMO would be more concerned with spin off tornado than the hurricane around here.

[dewilson58]

No need to evacuate Florida, just hurry and harvest Cuban tobacco.

[Irishmen]

as is over-reacting - worrying that every tropical warning is going to be the "storm of the century"

this. Tornado of 2007 did more damage to TV than any named storm. Worst of it should we take a direct path will be extended power outages which has never happened since 1998.

[Billy1]

Encourage them to leave, less traffic when the real evacuation comes and more gas for us that stay. People that evacuate at the last minute well endure the hurricane in their car stuck in traffic on I75.

[Andyb]

Sounds like they, like many others, have been conditioned to fear, as been the case these last 2 years.

[Marathon Man]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.

The "Ridiculous Post of the Year" award is coming up later in the year. And the nominees are ...

[wirenail444]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

If your friends are panicking about this storm, they should reconsider living in Florida. These storms are common in the summer.

[Briand]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.

I suffer from pollen and dust allergies and have ALWAYS worn an N-95 mask when cycling and even playing golf. If there is a ‘moron’ around a mirror may help you find one….

[BellaDonna]

[QUOTE=golfing eagles;1967710]I assume you were being disingenuous. But seriously, no one should panic. After all, when they do evacuate for a hurricane, THIS is the place they evacuate those people TO[/QUOTE

Having lived in Key West for 31 years I can reassure you that the Orlando area is where we evacuated to.
We are not having the storm surges that coastal towns have.
Have lanterns, batteries, water, non perishable food, manual can opener. Make sure your propane tank for grill is full
and maybe a little butane stove. I would think this would be sufficient to reassure you that you safely ride out stormy weather. Feel Safe.

[Dana1963]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?
Before I would evacuate I would personally wait for the SHARPE supplement

[G.R.I.T.S.]

The path of Irma was actually west of us - the center of the circulation did not pass directly over The Villages. At that point, it was probably a tropical storm in intensity and the exact path is really not of much consequence since the circulation was pretty wide but it is a misconception that the center of the circulation passed over The Villages.

Irma was a cat 1 when she passed over central Fl.

[Lil GTO]

I have lived in hurricane alley for over 40 years. 20 years in SE Florida (palm beach county) 21 years in SE Texas (Houston area)never evacuated but watched thousands trapped in grid lock trying to several times.

Stayed home watched the hurricane on TV and never a shingle lifted so I say hurricane schmuricane I’m sticking to my standard hurricane preparedness plan. Nothing that’s my plan. No shutters, no bottled water, no batteries, no generator. No nuthin. Hurricane on. Peace out!

[Girlcopper]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?
Everyone can calm down. So Fl is out of the cone for now. Possible heavy rains for Broward n Palm Beach. And anyone who panics for a hurticane is new to Fl

[Bogie Shooter]

The hurricane is too far out till Sunday to know with more certainty about the risks.There are some things you can do now. Don’t drive around with a nearly empty gas tank. You can fill up your gas tank when it’s gone down to 3/4 full. Buy some five gallon gas cans and fill them up too. Make sure that you know your insurance information, in case you will need it.

We also keep about 20 cases of water, about 12 cases of paper towels, and about 12 cases of toilet paper. We don’t have our whole house electric generator yet, that we ordered in January, but we have flashlights and lanterns. We have a lot of non perishable food. We have a grill with a full propane tank, plus an extra propane tank.

At some point, you have to make the decision to evacuate or stay. Many people say if the hurricane is a category 4 or 5, they evacuate. If you wait too long to evacuate, it might be 5 mph for hundreds of miles. Along the way, there will be dead cars that are clogging up the roads that are simply unreliable cars, or they ran out of gas. Many people wait till their gas tank is empty before they refill their gas tank. That’s a bad habit. You might need those extra 5 gallon gas cans that are all full, if it takes hours to fill up your gas tank or the gas stations run out of fuel on the way up north. If you wait too long, it’s too dangerous to evacuate. If you evacuate too early, then you might have evacuated for nothing if the hurricane weakens or changed course away from your location. If you’re too stressed out, then it’s better to evacuate sooner than later.

This seems like over the top for people living in central Florida. Agree a good plan for living on the coasts.

[mrf6969]

I was here during Irma, but we didn’t get 115 mph winds. I think the max was somewhere between 65-75 mph. The “Eye” came right over the Villages, but it had flattened out, so the winds were not that bad.
You are correct and we got a ton of rain as everywhere in TV was flooded to some degree.

[airstreamingypsy]

as is over-reacting - worrying that every tropical warning is going to be the "storm of the century"

Right, thanks to the weather people who make them all sound like Armageddon.

[tuccillo]

When it passed to the west of us it may very well have been of tropical storm intensity. The winds were on the border between a tropical storm and cat1. It is really of no consequence.

Irma was a cat 1 when she passed over central Fl.

[Rose Ann Vinci Igoe]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

Where do I begin... Been in Florida 30 yrs... Lost my home with Hurricane Andrew 1992, CAT 5, that was Miami. Hurricane Season for Florida is June 1st to Nov 1st. Florida's serious Hurricane's usually happen in Late July through Mid Sept. They come up from Africa and either travel Up the Florida East Coast, or the Gulf. Southern Florida is the section that gets clipped, (IF) it comes close. Now Central Florida, is where we live, I came here to get out of the Hurricane's... majority of homes, 99.9% don't have hurricane shutters because (if) we are in the path, by the time it crosses over land to get here, it downsizes considerably, to just messy, windy but not high winds, and lots of rain. You would move your potted plants inward and lani chairs.. anything that is mobile. Now to relax you , Hopefully, if EVER its life threatening, we would get news of going to a designated Shelter (local)... we are not near water, so no problem with high water . There is a big difference in Home Insurance because we are not in the High Destruction zone from Hurricanes. My homeowners insurance decreased by $2000 a year, my friends were paying $7,000 for homeowners insurance.(in Miami). Now, a Category 1 and 2, can lift some roof tiles, some fences will come down, tree limbs.... its the Category 3, 4 and 5 that you need to take more seriously. We haven't lost power of phones, because most lines are underground. However, always, during the Hurricane Season, have a pantry back up for water, food (non perishable items) meds, pet food, TP, as well as flash lights etc. I rotate my stock as the season ends. If anything, in Central Florida your biggest issue is SINKHOLE... WE do have a few but not bad. So always plan for the worst and hope for the best. I had the Village Daily Sun do a news report 2-3 years ago on me , with what I went through and how to prepare for any up coming storms. I'll post if I can be talented enough computer wise. Also, keep important papers in a plastic bag, if ever you need to find them they will all be together. Make sure cell phone is charged ...

[Bogie Shooter]

At what point do they start to flood the golf courses?

When the water gets above your ankles, you can assume the course is closed……even if there is no sign.
Being on a closed course is trespassing………I read that somewhere.😈

[jojo]

I was glued to the news when the eye of Irma passed over us around 3 a.m. After the eye passed the wind appeared to change direction. We were worried about the water level from the lake behind our house. It was amazing afterward that although the debris field of mostly palm fronds was enormous, damage was minimal.

[Waltdisney4life]

Love the fear! Make sure you stay in front of the television and believe everything they tell you!

[Rose Ann Vinci Igoe]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

Log into Facebook | Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/roseanne.vinci/videos/10214498130750549/)

this is from the Villages Daily News, they did an interview of my experience with Hurricane Andrew and I also, went into how to prepare for Hurricane Season .... CLICK ON LOG INTO FACEBOOK" and the News report will come up.

[merrymini]

Media just going from one panic to another, foolish people.

[graciegirl]

This seems like over the top for people living in central Florida. Agree a good plan for living on the coasts.

I agree with Bogie, as usual.

[Dave Laluk]

Bring all your loose items in from outside. (patio furniture, etc.) Don't panic. The newer homes in The Villages are built to updated hurricane standards. Just prepare to hunker down for a day or so. Keep an eye on local news to see IF and WHERE evacuations are recommended or required. (Typically just on the coast and in low areas unless it's a Category 3 or higher.)

[tuccillo]

OK, let us review the facts.

1) There is a hurricane south of the Dominican Republic.
2) It is forecasted to move to the northwest and decrease in intensity to a tropical storm as it passes over Cuba.
3) It is forecasted to move into the Gulf and move northward off the west coast of Florida eventually making landfall. Current forecasts keep it at tropical storm intensity.
4) The cone of uncertainty is large and, starting Tuesday morning, nearly all of FL has the potential to be impacted.
5) You should be prepared with food and water and other supplies. This is good advice for all of the hurricane season.
6) You should continue to monitor the forecasts, which are updated several times per day.

Love the fear! Make sure you stay in front of the television and believe everything they tell you!

[graciegirl]

Love the fear! Make sure you stay in front of the television and believe everything they tell you!

Oh stop. It is legitimate for new people to wonder what are the usual preparations for a named storm.

Most people who have lived in Florida for five years or so would not think to evacuate The Villages. We don't have storm shutters here. We usually fare pretty well. The huge oak tree next to Laurel Manor Rec Center did fall during H. Irma. It is wise to have food that can be eaten without refrigeration or heat and to have enough clean water during Hurricane season here in central Florida, although The Villages usually do not have prolonged power outages. (In Irma the older sections did lose power and did have flooding)

The old saying..."You can hide from wind, but you need to run from water". The Villages flooded their own golf courses with their immense pumping system in order to keep homes safe from flooding, during Hurricane Irma.

[Swoop]

I had a house in Key Largo for 14 years and people there worried less about hurricanes than they do here. Irma was a Cat 5, as bad as they get, the eye passed very close to The Villages and yet it was just a bad storm here. There is an extremely high probability that Irma will be the worst hurricane that this area will see in any of our lifetimes. In Key Largo we had good reasons to worry. There was no land to weaken the hurricanes and the ocean storm surge could be as bad or worse than the winds. So relax, grab a good book and expect some wind and rain.

[Queenie504]

Panic and evacuate now!!!! Dont be ridiculous. Watch the news and listen to local authorities.

[DonnaNi4os]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

It’s early in the season. The hurricane needs hot water to strengthen which is why they are worse later in the season. Evacuation really isn’t necessary but whatever gives your friend peace of mind is what they should do. I’m not going anywhere and I’m not worried.

[Stu from NYC]

How can you just assume he's a moron because he's bicycling with a mask on? I bet he doesn't get any dragonflies in his mouth!

What about the guy driving in his car with his mask on? Will he give himself the virus?

[Tim C.]

TV isn't anywhere near the gulf or Atlantic. No reason to panic

[Stu from NYC]

We also keep about 20 cases of water, about 12 cases of paper towels, and about 12 cases of toilet paper. We don’t have our whole house electric generator yet, that we ordered in January, but we have flashlights and lanterns. We have a lot of non perishable food. We have a grill with a full propane tank, plus an extra propane tank.



You think you have enough tp?

[DonnaNi4os]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.

Have you considered that the cyclist may have severe allergies? The mask would help prevent his immune response to pollen. Time to stop judging what others do and start being kind.

[Spalumbos62]

You grow up! Decisions about masks and hurricanes should be based on factual information, not "feelings".


Here we go!! The little boy is out to play...with attitude...you grow up!...no you grow up!!
Who has popcorn?

[butlerism]

I live on a large preserve in SS.
The Tortoises are bitchin at me as I am digging my own Burrow.

[DonnaNi4os]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.

Perhaps the cyclist has severe allergies and the mask helps prevent pollen from making his allergies worse. We really need to stop judging people and learn to be kind. Calling him a moron really isn’t necessary now is it?

[Spalumbos62]

I was trying to be funny. The ground here is great at absorbing moisture and we feel very safe from hurricanes.

Now tornadoes or sink holes that is a horse of another color.


Lol,lol.....a very fine quote from...............(come on people)...the wizard of Oz.

(Thank you...it brought a smile to me)

[Bacimom]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.

Or the cyclist may have discovered that wearing a mask helps minimize their allergies. From wearing masks, I definitely noticed a reduction in my allergies.

[butlerism]

Anoles. Snakes. Roaches. No food shortage. Toilet Paper .... Use my hand and a wash cloth
Wake up people.
You came form dirt, and dirt is where you are going.

Oh... wait... Charmin is on sale at Target.

Go away wimps........ please go away

[Spalumbos62]

The hurricane is too far out till Sunday to know with more certainty about the risks.There are some things you can do now. Don’t drive around with a nearly empty gas tank. You can fill up your gas tank when it’s gone down to 3/4 full. Buy some five gallon gas cans and fill them up too. Make sure that you know your insurance information, in case you will need it.

We also keep about 20 cases of water, about 12 cases of paper towels, and about 12 cases of toilet paper. We don’t have our whole house electric generator yet, that we ordered in January, but we have flashlights and lanterns. We have a lot of non perishable food. We have a grill with a full propane tank, plus an extra propane tank.

At some point, you have to make the decision to evacuate or stay. Many people say if the hurricane is a category 4 or 5, they evacuate. If you wait too long to evacuate, it might be 5 mph for hundreds of miles. Along the way, there will be dead cars that are clogging up the roads that are simply unreliable cars, or they ran out of gas. Many people wait till their gas tank is empty before they refill their gas tank. That’s a bad habit. You might need those extra 5 gallon gas cans that are all full, if it takes hours to fill up your gas tank or the gas stations run out of fuel on the way up north. If you wait too long, it’s too dangerous to evacuate. If you evacuate too early, then you might have evacuated for nothing if the hurricane weakens or changed course away from your location. If you’re too stressed out, then it’s better to evacuate sooner than later.


Where do you put all of this? (Not trying to be funny)...

[Spalumbos62]

No, the center of the circulation did not come right over The Villages. It was just to the east of Crystal River and west of The Villages. This is actually tracked accurately because the NCEP accumulates forecasted path error statistics for the NWP models. Again, it really doesn't matter that much as the circulation was large and the intensity had dropped significantly.

Maps: Tracking Hurricane Irma’s Path Over Florida - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html)


Who cares!!!!
It was years ago...do we need a "yes"- "no" match now?
If you truly are a meteorologist, please give current info.

[kenoc7]

Sorry, I don't buy that line. It's the same crap people say about masks. Who cares what makes YOU feel safe or ME feel safe. We need to do that which makes sense, that which is recommended by the experts, and do it at the time recommended. Today I saw a cyclist riding alone with a mask on. You might say "he's doing what makes him feel safe". But in reality, he is a total moron. Likewise , you can stay in your home when it is under a mandatory evacuation because you feel safe. Another case of being a moron. Sorry if that is offensive, but that's simply the facts of the situation.
Your attitude about masks is offensive!!!

[dewilson58]

Who cares!!!!
It was years ago...do we need a "yes"- "no" match now?
If you truly are a meteorologist, please give current info.

Wow.
Having a bad day, or a normal day?
Tucc provided and provides good info for Villagers.
If you don't like it, don't read it.
:ho:

[chriskean82]

Been in FL 23 years now. We evacuate for any that’s going to be a Cat 1 when it reaches us. That usually means a Cat 3 when it makes landfall. We are pretty much smack in the middle of FL. So a lot of weakening before it reaches The Villages. Plus, The Villages I laid out perfectly for storms. Between underground utilities, golf courses for water run off, nothing to worry about here. Just bring in anything that could possibly take flight, have 3-7 days of supplies and you’ll be fine. I remember when Irma came through. No real homes flooding, almost no power loss, and that was a Cat 4 when it made landfall and a strong Cat 1 weak Cat 2 when it made its way across The Villages.

[Spalumbos62]

Wow.
Having a bad day, or a normal day?
Tucc provided and provides good info for Villagers.
If you don't like it, don't read it.
:ho:


Has nothing to do with my day....if you read this whole thread it went back and fourth about the path of the storm. One says it was right over us, no it wasn't...yes it was....enough. sorry, but it was years ago....no one cares. What they truly care about isTuesday's weather, and with that he could be very helpful.
But thanks for inquiring about my day, otherwise (besides mild infractions from certain non helpful people), it's going great!

[Slk9786]

When was this kind of response warranted!

[dewilson58]

Has nothing to do with my day

Okay, so it's normal day & attitude for you.

You are new here.............during the last breeze, Tucc removed all the media hype and many, many, many Villagers enjoyed and respected his comments and thoughts.

That's who cares.

[rjm1cc]

Years ago my daughter was in college in Fl. Her first hurricane was coming. Cousin in GA police called her and said to evacuate to his home and she did. When she got back home no one else left and no problem. Next hurricane she sleep through.
The answer depends on how your area has done in the past and how likely flooding is. Seems like staying put is ok for this one.

[Ralpha]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?
I think it’s silly to panic over this storm. At worst, it might be a stage one hurricane, but more than likely a tropical storm. I would certainly hope that our homes are built good enough to withstand a stage one hurricane.
However, if we see that the winds are going to be severe enough to blow our lawn furniture, potted plants, etc around, we will secure them. We will rely on the media for information on what we should do.
I would suggest that we get supplies to sustain us through the storm. A few examples would be flashlights, water, non perishable food, etc.

[shideg]

Guess we will wait and panic at the last minute.

It's never too late to panic.

[tuccillo]

If you don't like the post then don't read it. I have given current information. You just need to read the posts. And, yes, I am a meteorologist. Undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a research scientist at NASA and the National Weather Service, where I developed numerical weather prediction computer models on supercomputers for research and operational forecasting.

I do try to provide some useful information when things get interesting. However, most of what you need to know you can obtain by watching the news.

Who cares!!!!
It was years ago...do we need a "yes"- "no" match now?
If you truly are a meteorologist, please give current info.

[vintageogauge]

It's the tornados you have to worry about not these little hurricanes.

[Nucky]

Okay, so it's normal day & attitude for you.

You are new here.............during the last breeze, Tucc removed all the media hype and many, many, many Villagers enjoyed and respected his comments and thoughts.

That's who cares.

My walk down memory lane brings me to a weather incident before Irma and we were only here about a month. We knew nobody but noticed everyone loading up to get outta town. Seeing this heightened our worry when Irma was coming toward us. Tuccillo was a major part of helping us keep our heads on. We were ready to stay and ride out the storm when we received a call from a friend who evacuated at his wife's and 95-year old mother's request to Tifton Ga.

After they arrived in Georgia he called me as said it may be a good idea to spend some time with them. We were in the car and the 5-hour ride took about 9 hours. We were and always will be grateful to them for their hospitality. The home that we arrived at had its own wing just for us. We were not roughing it at all.

My point. Everyone who lives here was new at one point. Some people are a little more stable than others. After 5 years I count myself as able to digest information from all sources and make a good decisions on my own. I didn't have that skill when I moved here.
So newbies ask all the questions you have. Many people are here to help you. For us, it was and still is Tuccillo and a few others.

People have different recollections about where they were during and after Irma and the time it was there and blah blah blah. Who cares. That one is done. Let's deal with what we have in front of us now. Let's try and be constructive with the posts in this thread.

So far it looks like we are staying. Five years ago I'd be packing the car already. :1rotfl: :pray:

[tuccillo]

Elsa has been downgraded to a tropical storm. The forecast track (see link below) remains about the same. The hurricane center average track error is 125 miles at 3 days. Best estimate at this point is a gusty rain event for parts of Florida. However, continue to listen to the news as 3-4 days out is still a long time.

TROPICAL STORM ELSA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/120029.shtml?cone#contents)

[Flgagg]

People have to do what makes them feel the most comfortable. Individual choice, individual decision.

[MidWestIA]

From the NWS site at the PEAK IRMA wind

Leesburg Airport Spanish Springs The Villages
Day Time Wind Day Time Wind
11 17:53 SW 17 G 28 11 17:10 E 22 G 30
11 16:53 SW 21 G 28 11 16:50 E 16 G 30
11 15:53 SW 22 G 36 11 15:50 E 20 G 29
11 14:53 SW 22 G 36 11 14:50 E 21 G 29
11 13:53 SW 26 G 39 11 13:30 E 20 G 33
11 12:53 SW 24 G 37 11 12:50 E 25 G 36
11 11:53 SW 25 G 41 11 11:50 E 22 G 37
11 10:53 SW 31 G 46 11 10:50 E 24 G 39
11 9:53 S 35 G 49 11 9:50 E 26 G 43
11 8:53 S 29 G 48 11 8:50 NE 32 G 41
11 7:53 S 33 G 52 11 7:50 NE 25 G 45
11 6:53 S 40 G 52 11 6:50 E 25 G 45
11 5:53 S 32 G 51 11 6:10 E 24 G 54
11 4:53 SE 38 G 59 11 5:50 E 31 G 43
11 3:53 SE 43 G 69 11 5:30 E 33 G 51
11 2:53 E 38 G 53 11 5:10 E 32 G 54
11 1:53 E 37 G 62 11 4:50 E 36 G 51
11 0:53 E 35 G 53 11 3:50 E 28 G 44
10 23:53 NE 31 G 48 11 2:50 NE 32 G 43
10 22:53 NE 40 G 61 11 1:50 NE 31 G 44
10 21:53 NE 41 G 59 11 0:50 NE 28 G 39
10 20:53 NE 37 G 49 10 23:50 NE 26 G 41
10 19:53 NE 24 G 43 10 22:50 NE 37 G 54
10 18:53 E 20 G 31 10 22:30 NE 28 G 41
10 17:53 NE 15 G 26 10 22:10 NE 25 G 38
10 16:53 NE 25 G 39 10 21:50 NE 28 G 45
10 21:30 NE 26 G 40
10 21:10 NE 29 G 52
10 20:50 NE 23 G 37
10 20:30 NE 22 G 35
10 20:10 NE 22 G 36
10 19:50 NE 17 G 33
10 19:30 NE 18 G 35
10 19:10 NE 20 G 29
10 18:50 NE 21 G 37
10 18:30 NE 16 G 23
10 18:10 NE 13 G 26
10 17:50 NE 18 G 28
10 17:30 NE 14 G 23
10 17:10 NE 13 G 21
10 16:50 NE 17 G 28





If you and your friends are in the villages, this is generally regarded as 'shelter in place' location. Irma came directly over TV a few years ago, wind gusts hit around 115 MPH, somewhere around 15 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. There was very little damage, some relatively minor flooding and the major power disruptions were in the historic areas. Also, we are inland and the storms lose intensity as they move over land. IMHO, the local television stations and papers have hurricane guides follow these, we are staying put.

[graciegirl]

From the NWS site at the PEAK IRMA wind

Leesburg Airport Spanish Springs The Villages
Day Time Wind Day Time Wind
11 17:53 SW 17 G 28 11 17:10 E 22 G 30
11 16:53 SW 21 G 28 11 16:50 E 16 G 30
11 15:53 SW 22 G 36 11 15:50 E 20 G 29
11 14:53 SW 22 G 36 11 14:50 E 21 G 29
11 13:53 SW 26 G 39 11 13:30 E 20 G 33
11 12:53 SW 24 G 37 11 12:50 E 25 G 36
11 11:53 SW 25 G 41 11 11:50 E 22 G 37
11 10:53 SW 31 G 46 11 10:50 E 24 G 39
11 9:53 S 35 G 49 11 9:50 E 26 G 43
11 8:53 S 29 G 48 11 8:50 NE 32 G 41
11 7:53 S 33 G 52 11 7:50 NE 25 G 45
11 6:53 S 40 G 52 11 6:50 E 25 G 45
11 5:53 S 32 G 51 11 6:10 E 24 G 54
11 4:53 SE 38 G 59 11 5:50 E 31 G 43
11 3:53 SE 43 G 69 11 5:30 E 33 G 51
11 2:53 E 38 G 53 11 5:10 E 32 G 54
11 1:53 E 37 G 62 11 4:50 E 36 G 51
11 0:53 E 35 G 53 11 3:50 E 28 G 44
10 23:53 NE 31 G 48 11 2:50 NE 32 G 43
10 22:53 NE 40 G 61 11 1:50 NE 31 G 44
10 21:53 NE 41 G 59 11 0:50 NE 28 G 39
10 20:53 NE 37 G 49 10 23:50 NE 26 G 41
10 19:53 NE 24 G 43 10 22:50 NE 37 G 54
10 18:53 E 20 G 31 10 22:30 NE 28 G 41
10 17:53 NE 15 G 26 10 22:10 NE 25 G 38
10 16:53 NE 25 G 39 10 21:50 NE 28 G 45
10 21:30 NE 26 G 40
10 21:10 NE 29 G 52
10 20:50 NE 23 G 37
10 20:30 NE 22 G 35
10 20:10 NE 22 G 36
10 19:50 NE 17 G 33
10 19:30 NE 18 G 35
10 19:10 NE 20 G 29
10 18:50 NE 21 G 37
10 18:30 NE 16 G 23
10 18:10 NE 13 G 26
10 17:50 NE 18 G 28
10 17:30 NE 14 G 23
10 17:10 NE 13 G 21
10 16:50 NE 17 G 28

The wind was strong enough during Irma that a gust blew over a very large Live Oak Tree next to Laurel Manor. I am not good with guessing but It towered over Laurel Manor and had huge roots. It was indeed fortunate that it fell away from the building and the building had been evacuated. How tall you'all think that tree was? 90 foot???

AND I copied Tucillo's credentials. I am so grateful for his background and his experience when we are faced with these issues on the Forum. I know that even with all knowledge, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes do whatever they want to.

I tend to worry about stuff and I really didn't worry much about Irma. Elsa has NO business being here at all. She is a Snow Queen and way outa her realm.


Tucillo.

If you don't like the post then don't read it. I have given current information. You just need to read the posts. And, yes, I am a meteorologist. Undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a research scientist at NASA and the National Weather Service, where I developed numerical weather prediction computer models on supercomputers for research and operational forecasting.

I do try to provide some useful information when things get interesting. However, most of what you need to know you can obtain by watching the news.

[Velvet]

Okay, so it's normal day & attitude for you.

You are new here.............during the last breeze, Tucc removed all the media hype and many, many, many Villagers enjoyed and respected his comments and thoughts.

That's who cares.

Yup! I feel a sense of relief when Tucc chimes in. Experience and wisdom is good enough for me.

[Bogie Shooter]

When was this kind of response warranted!
Which one???

[Spalumbos62]

Okay, so it's normal day & attitude for you.

You are new here.............during the last breeze, Tucc removed all the media hype and many, many, many Villagers enjoyed and respected his comments and thoughts.

That's who cares.

Please reread my comment:
I have great admiration for this person , and meteorologist in general. The who cares was bc people were fighting back and forth about the path of a very very old storm, not his ability.
Having a great day, fingers crossed here in TV, where I live, not orlando.

[jrzeis@tampabay.rr.com]

Unless you plan to leave the state you are already in the place that is an ideal spot to evacuate to. If storm surge manages to make it this far inland then I would recommend you close your eyes and cross your fingers. Unless you happen to be the older sections of TV the building code should mitigate most issues related to wind unless you forgot to bring in any missiles waiting in your yard to crash through your sliding glass doors. I'm pretty sure the naysayers will disagree and tell you the only safe place to go is Utah which of course will also have issues. Don't be stupid and put masking tape in a 'X' pattern on your windows, everyone knows it has to be a circle.

[Gulfcoast]

Bring in yard flags, wreaths or anything else that might be blown around. Check flashlights and make sure you have batteries in the event of a power outage. Fill your car up with gas. Fill up containers (like empty milk jugs) with water and freeze. Have some bottled water and have some food in your pantry like a loaf of bread and peanut butter. Be sure to have some extra pet food. Refill and pick up any prescriptions. Be sure that shrubs/trees close to the house are trimmed - they will be less likely to break from the wind and they won't be rubbing against the house/gutters during the storm.

If there are power outages or downed trees blocking roadways you'll be all set.

(Editing to add: Make sure to charge your cellphone, too)

[dewilson58]

Please reread my comment:
I have great admiration for this person , and meteorologist in general. The who cares was bc people were fighting back and forth about the path of a very very old storm, not his ability.

Originally Posted by Spalumbos62 View Post
Who cares!!!!
It was years ago...do we need a "yes"- "no" match now?
If you truly are a meteorologist, please give current info.

Re-read.
Looking for the admiration......jus can't find it. :ohdear:

[Ben Franklin]

We've lived 30 years in southwest Florida and only ever evacuated for two 'canes. The last one we evacuated for was a Cat 5. Our evacuation actually brought us to TV land, and we basically stayed. I don't think we would evacuate for a hurricane from here, unless it was a cat 5 headed directly at us from 90 degrees off the coast. You don't have to worry about storm surge here, and by the time a 'cane hits land, it starts to wind down.

[Fenster]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

I’m so glad. I’m so glad. I’m glad I’m glad. I’m glad.
Cream, 1966, et al

[Iowabuddy]

This post can’t be for real

[taruffi57]

I've been in Cen. Fl. for 52 yrs. and have actually never been IN a hurricane.

[Spalumbos62]

Lol,lol.������������������������������������

[askcarl]

WunderMap(R) | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=17.3&lon=-73&wxstn=0&satellite=1&hur=1)

[Joe C.]

Don't worry about hurricanes in TV. By the time they get here, the winds have lessened their strength.
And as far as listening to the "experts", what they recommend is what most people with common sense already know and do. The "experts" always talk down to the lowest intelligence. Also you CAN do what makes you feel comfortable. I for one, love storms.....the hurricanes, blizzards, ice storms, and even a typhoon at sea.....I thrive in weather like that.

[rsibole]

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

Hurricane Advice:

During the hurricane you can send text msg to 32665 to your timeline to let others know u are safe without signing into Facebook or using a lot of phone battery.

Any water coming up from the ground into your house will not be covered by your homeowners insurance. If you have no Flood Insurance . . .
1. File ASAP with your homeowners.
2. Receive a denial notice.
3. Take denial and file with FEMA. Asap. You can't file until you have a denial letter from your homeowners insurance . If you have no insurance then just file immediately with FEMA
4. Take 1,000,000 pictures of the damage, including personal property and document everything. Put pictures in an elec file easily accessed by your email.
5. Start cleanup. (Sheetrock FIRST and drying house). Damaged personal property needs to be kept for view by the adjuster. You can toss Sheetrock flooring insulation but put on the side of the road in a pile for collection in a few weeks. DO NOT MAKE REPAIRS NO MATTER WHAT FEMA SAYS if you will need an SBA loan (fema loan is an SBA loan). If you won't need an SBA loan you can repair and save receipts (renting blowers/dryers, sprayers for bleach, etc count). SBA cannot approve loans on homes where even one thing has been added/replaced!! Note: you CAN replace personal property. Just cannot replace parts of the house.
6. When applying for fema, best to do at the office they will set up. Take all documents including loan papers deeds and proof of identity. You can bring your estimate of work to be done at that time if you want. If not just list things: 22" Sheetrock and insulation on 2200sf Home; wood flooring 2200sf, baseboards 110', 35' lower wooden cabinets etc. Then tell them you want to apply for an SBA loan there. The rep will be there. Have an idea of amount for building and for personal property. Have a list of damaged items.
7. The fema/SBA inspector will come to your place and you show them everything. At some point you might need a written estimate.
8. FEMA meantime will send you some money, prob for housing plus money to fix the basics, I.e. Sheetrock.
9. When they call you to finalize papers, be ready to file the documents yourself at the courthouse. It's easy and super cheap. Then you wait. Still you cannot make repairs. They'll call and tell you when it's approved.
10. SBA will approve you and dispense money in stages depending on your damage. You'll have to show receipts (from cleanup and replacing personal property counts too) where you've spent the fema money and then the SBA first portion before they release the next one. Keep your receipts. Good luck.
An SBA loan is a good loan. Around 1.5% in many cases. Also, if you do not have sand bags to prevent water from entering your house you can fill trash bags with water and tie them tightly which will work.

And don’t forget you have 40-50 gallons of fresh water in your hot water tank . . . . . good luck!

[Dlbonivich]

Have them tune into Dennis Philips in Tampa. He is on Facebook. He is the voice of reason weatherman. I love him. 23 years in Florida and I find him the best. No bull crap, just the truth

[Villageswimmer]

If you don't like the post then don't read it. I have given current information. You just need to read the posts. And, yes, I am a meteorologist. Undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a research scientist at NASA and the National Weather Service, where I developed numerical weather prediction computer models on supercomputers for research and operational forecasting.

I do try to provide some useful information when things get interesting. However, most of what you need to know you can obtain by watching the news.

You shouldn’t have to defend yourself. You’re the most knowledgeable and intelligent person on this thread. Thank you for sharing your expertise.

And you retain your dignity and don’t stoop so low as to call people names.

[tvbound]

Of all the places to be when a hurricane hits Florida, I would think that with The Villages being pretty much in the middle of the state and knowing how quickly they dissipate over land, it would be one of the safer places. I also recall reading something back when we were researching where to fully retire, that Jacksonville FL. hasn't had a direct hit in a very long time. I recall it because it seemed that being on the coast it would be vulnerable, but apparently there's something kind of unique regarding where it is located. I think it was about 15 or so years ago that I read that, because I believe in the same article it mentioned that just south of there (Daytona Beach area?) did get hit pretty hard from one that barrelled in straight from the east.

[JMintzer]

Oh Oh, time to run out and stock up on water, bread and toilet paper

You forgot milk... Or is that only for when it snows? :icon_wink:

[tuccillo]

Yes, Jacksonville is in a pretty good location. The coastline bends westward and results in Jacksonville having the same longitude as eastern Ohio. Hurricanes are typically moving north around that latitude so it is difficult to get one in there. Not impossible, however. I seem to recall a cat1 getting in there 10 or 15 years ago, or so. I have wondered if the Navy chose that area for the Kings Bay sub base because of the protected nature of the coastline.

Of all the places to be when a hurricane hits Florida, I would think that with The Villages being pretty much in the middle of the state and knowing how quickly they dissipate over land, it would be one of the safer places. I also recall reading something back when we were researching where to fully retire, that Jacksonville FL. hasn't had a direct hit in a very long time. I recall it because it seemed that being on the coast it would be vulnerable, but apparently there's something kind of unique regarding where it is located. I think it was about 15 or so years ago that I read that, because I believe in the same article it mentioned that just south of there (Daytona Beach area?) did get hit pretty hard from one that barrelled in straight from the east.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

How can you just assume he's a moron because he's bicycling with a mask on? I bet he doesn't get any dragonflies in his mouth!

Or maybe he spent much of the last year wearing one and works in a job where he's still required to wear one, and he's just so used to wearing it he's like "screw it" and doesn't bother taking it off til he gets home.

Or he could be a complete absolute genius, but thinks it's a kick to make people think he's a moron by wearing a mask while he rides his bike. He's probably just laughing at the people making the snide remarks.

[EdFNJ]

We also keep about 20 cases of water, about 12 cases of paper towels, and about 12 cases of toilet paper. If you need to keep so much toilet paper you definitely need to change your eating habits! :1rotfl: I don't think we use 12 cases in a year!

[Jean G]

Haha! New to FL is my guess. This one is a big nothing-burger.

[tuccillo]

There is not much change in the forecasted track and it is likely to stay at tropical storm intensity. Miami has it hitting FL around Tampa, or a bit north of Tampa, on Tuesday evening and then moving to the northeast. That would put the center of the circulation north of us as it moves towards the SE Georgia coast. The GFS suggests 2-4 inches of rain for us and gusty winds.

[rogerk]

Lived in The Villages, which is in Florida the last time I checked, for over 20 years. We have never had an evacuation order or even advised to evacuate. Our part of the state is the safe haven people on the coast evacuate to.

Be careful reading general information provided by even the State. It doesn’t usually apply to the entire state of Florida.

[skippy05]

There are tens of thousands of OLD mobile homes built in 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s that have survived every single "hurricane" that has come to the Central Florida route in all these years. Why wouldn't your friend's block-built or stick-built home in the Villages fare just as well as those? The truth is "hurricanes" that make it to Central Florida are a bunch of hype and worry about nothing. Just take a tour of the abundant 55 and over mobile home parks in Eustis, Tavares, Mount Dora, Leesburg and see for yourself. How is it that all these old things were not blown off the map years ago if these Central Florida "hurricanes" are so dangerous? Answer: They are not.

[golfing eagles]

Tell your friends a better idea than evacuating Florida is maybe to simply rent out one of tens of thousands of mobile homes in any of the 55 age restricted mobile home parks in Central Florida to use as a storm shelter. There are tens of thousands of them built in 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s which have survived every single hurricane that has come the Central Florida route in all these years. Think deeply about the fact that all those are still standing and wonder 'why' and 'how' it is possible that all those still stand today...unscratched and unscathed.

Really??? Well, if it's just the same to you, I'll stay in my newly constructed to structurally survive cat 3 winds home and you can stay in a trailer when a hurricane comes through here. Good luck with that!

[NoMoSno]

Thankfully it's on a path that will not greatly hamper rescue efforts going on in Miami.

[davephan]

You think you have enough tp?

Yes! We have plenty of toilet paper, paper towels, and drinking water. Several months ago, there was a “run” on toilet paper. The prices were jacked up on those items. At the time, I didn’t keep much toilet paper in stock. Once I get “burned”, I never get “burned” again. I don’t believe in living “hand to mouth”. Some people only have a burned out light bulb in their refrigerator!

We ordered a whole house generator in January, and are still waiting for the installation. There’s a backlog on those types of items.

Before moving to Florida in December, I’d watch crowds of people buying water, flashings, gasoline, food, and other supplies at the last minute. Those people live “hand to mouth” and they live their lives being unprepared.

When my gas tank reaches half full, I fill up the tank. I’ve been doing that since high school for over 50 years, when I first started driving. I’ve never run out of gas, except with the test drive of my first car that I bought. During the test drive, the car ran out of gas right in front of a gas station that was next door to the used car dealer. Over the years, I’ve seen many fools that run out of gas. Those fools always wait till their gas tank is empty before they think about filling it up to half full.

[tvbound]

Yes, Jacksonville is in a pretty good location. The coastline bends westward and results in Jacksonville having the same longitude as eastern Ohio. Hurricanes are typically moving north around that latitude so it is difficult to get one in there. Not impossible, however. I seem to recall a cat1 getting in there 10 or 15 years ago, or so. I have wondered if the Navy chose that area for the Kings Bay sub base because of the protected nature of the coastline.

As I recall, that was part of the explanation on why they have seemed to dodge any direct hits.

[vintageogauge]

Yes! We have plenty of toilet paper, paper towels, and drinking water. Several months ago, there was a “run” on toilet paper. The prices were jacked up on those items. At the time, I didn’t keep much toilet paper in stock. Once I get “burned”, I never get “burned” again. I don’t believe in living “hand to mouth”. Some people only have a burned out light bulb in their refrigerator!

We ordered a whole house generator in January, and are still waiting for the installation. There’s a backlog on those types of items.

Before moving to Florida in December, I’d watch crowds of people buying water, flashings, gasoline, food, and other supplies at the last minute. Those people live “hand to mouth” and they live their lives being unprepared.

When my gas tank reaches half full, I fill up the tank. I’ve been doing that since high school for over 50 years, when I first started driving. I’ve never run out of gas, except with the test drive of my first car that I bought. During the test drive, the car ran out of gas right in front of a gas station that was next door to the used car dealer. Over the years, I’ve seen many fools that run out of gas. Those fools always wait till their gas tank is empty before they think about filling it up to half full.

Maybe those "FOOLS" couldn't afford to keep their tanks half full, may someone else was driving the cars that belonged to those "FOOLS" and ran their tank low, maybe those "FOOLS" had a broken gas gauge and couldn't afford to fix it. No reason to call anyone a fool that had the misfortune to run out of gas.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Hilton Head SC had that same rumor when we visited. Went kayaking and the local guide spun the same story as a pseudo expert on the area pontificating to tourists in rentals. I replied that HH only hasn't been hit yet, and HH took a near direct hit the next month.

Its an historical statistic that really means nothing about the future.

[golfing eagles]

Maybe those "FOOLS" couldn't afford to keep their tanks half full, may someone else was driving the cars that belonged to those "FOOLS" and ran their tank low, maybe those "FOOLS" had a broken gas gauge and couldn't afford to fix it. No reason to call anyone a fool that had the misfortune to run out of gas.

And maybe those "FOOLS" didn't want to add to a panic and double the length of the gas line unnecessarily, and maybe those "FOOLS" didn't want to hoard toilet paper and paper towels so as to deprive others while they had hundreds of rolls in their garage, and maybe those "FOOLS" won't be hoarding water, batteries and canned goods as the hurricane approaches. But it's nice to know there are still people with the "me first" attitude:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:. Makes you wonder who the bigger "FOOL" is:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[CoachKandSportsguy]

tuccillo,

ever run into Joe Sienkoweitz, masters in meteorology studying hurricanes, and worked at NOAA in south FL and Washington DC?

sportsguy

[JMintzer]

Really??? Well, if it's just the same to you, I'll stay in my newly constructed to structurally survive cat 3 winds home and you can stay in a trailer when a hurricane comes through here. Good luck with that!

https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/d5de38dcacff3b8cb0ab344f13cc0e4a.jpg

[davephan]

Maybe those "FOOLS" couldn't afford to keep their tanks half full, may someone else was driving the cars that belonged to those "FOOLS" and ran their tank low, maybe those "FOOLS" had a broken gas gauge and couldn't afford to fix it. No reason to call anyone a fool that had the misfortune to run out of gas.

If they can’t afford to fill their gas tank, then they need to be responsible people and work longer and harder to earn enough money to live their lives in a responsible manner. If you’re gas gauge is broken, you use your trip odometer, and reset the trip odometer every time you fill up your tank. I’ve been resetting my trip odometer every time I fill my gas tank for at least 40 years. It gives you a redundant means of knowing how much fuel you have.

One time, I tried to help one of those fools on the shoulder of a freeway, that ran out of gas. I could have gotten myself killed doing that for a fool. I never did that again.

During the period of time decades ago, when the gasoline prices rose from 50 cents a gallon to a dollar a gallon, there were pilots of single engine airplanes that ended up running out of fuel. They landed their aircraft on the freeways in the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. The FAA changed the rules for pilots. If they have to land on a road because they ran out of fuel, then they lose their pilots license permanently. Shortly after the rules were changed, the pilots of the single engine planes stopped landing on the freeways because they ran out of fuel. The risk of losing their pilots license permanently caused a change in those pilots behavior, and they no longer had to land away from an airport, due to running out of fuel.

[golfing eagles]

If they can’t afford to fill their gas tank, then they need to be responsible people and work longer and harder to earn enough money to live their lives in a responsible manner.

One time, I tried to help one of those fools on the shoulder of a freeway, that ran out of gas. I could have gotten myself killed doing that for a fool. I never did that again.

During the period of time decades ago, when the gasoline prices rose from 50 cents a gallon to a dollar a gallon, there were pilots of single engine airplanes that ended up running out of fuel. They landed their aircraft on the freeways in the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. The FAA changed the rules for pilots. If they have to land on a road because they ran out of fuel, then they lose their pilots license permanently. Shortly after the rules were changed, the pilots of the single engine planes stopped landing on the freeways because they ran out of fuel. The risk of losing their pilots license permanently caused a change in those pilots behavior, and they no longer had to land away from an airport, due to running out of fuel.

So is your suggestion that anyone who has to call for road service due to an empty tank lose their driver's license permanently?????

[davephan]

So is your suggestion that anyone who has to call for road service due to an empty tank lose their driver's license permanently?????

No, I’m not suggesting that people that run out of gasoline on the roads lose their driver’s license permanently. But that rule makes sense for private pilots.

However, I think it would be reasonable for people that run out of fuel in their cars be ticketed by the police. People that are irresponsible and run out of gas on the shoulders of the roads put other drivers on the roads at additional risks.

[golfing eagles]

No, I’m not suggesting that people that run out of gasoline on the roads lose their driver’s license permanently. But that rule makes sense for private pilots.

However, I think it would be reasonable for people that run out of fuel in their cars be ticketed by the police. People that are irresponsible and run out of gas on the shoulders of the roads put other drivers on the roads at additional risks.

Sounds very reasonable. But you KNOW there are those that are going to post that that is regressive taxation, oppression of the lower economic classes and I'm sure there's at least one who will call it racist.:ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

[Stu from NYC]

Sounds very reasonable. But you KNOW there are those that are going to post that that is regressive taxation, oppression of the lower economic classes and I'm sure there's at least one who will call it racist.:ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

Just one???

[golfing eagles]

Just one???

Well, 1 for sure, 7 or 8 possible

[tuccillo]

No, I don't know him. I have been gone for some time.

tuccillo,

ever run into Joe Sienkoweitz, masters in meteorology studying hurricanes, and worked at NOAA in south FL and Washington DC?

sportsguy

[fishon]

If you run away, where will you get your Delta jab?
Or your Epsilon?
Ad infinity jab?

[asianthree]

This tread really jumped the shark fro evacuating FL

[Stu from NYC]

This tread really jumped the shark fro evacuating FL

All that needed to be said about evacuation was said so it moved into more interesting stuff.

[Papa_lecki]

This tread really jumped the shark fro evacuating FL

It’s safe to say, somewhere around 90 to 125 posts on a thread and the thread spins off the tracks.
Admins should lock any thread once it hits 100 - at some point, the original question is answered

[CFrance]

What about the guy driving in his car with his mask on? Will he give himself the virus?
I've done that, from sheer laziness. Going from Lowe's to Aldi's to Walgreens, all on 466A. You just don't know why that guy has his mask on. Maybe somebody farted in his car.

[Happinow]

You all……please tune in every morning to watch meteorologist Eric Burris at 8:00 on his Facebook page. He tells it like it is, NO HYPE. You will get the most accurate info. He also gives updates as needed. Make your plans from there.

[JMintzer]

I've done that, from sheer laziness. Going from Lowe's to Aldi's to Walgreens, all on 466A. You just don't know why that guy has his mask on. Maybe somebody farted in his car.

A mask won't keep that out!

Don't ask me how I know...

[CFrance]

A mask won't keep that out!

Don't ask me how I know...
:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[Tom359]

Lived through Hurricane Andrew when we were in Miami. My rule of thumb is that anything CAT 3 or above gets my attention. CAT 1 and 2 are just "be prepared to be without power for a few days", anything higher can be significantly different. Tropical Storm or CAT 1 don't even get my attention.

[patfla06]

Lived through Hurricane Andrew when we were in Miami. My rule of thumb is that anything CAT 3 or above gets my attention. CAT 1 and 2 are just "be prepared to be without power for a few days", anything higher can be significantly different. Tropical Storm or CAT 1 don't even get my attention.

Exactly!
I’ve lived in Florida 24 years (17 in Tampa) and I’m storm weary. :ohdear:

[Tim C.]

just rain....for those who evacuated...panic much? :)

[billethkid]

We know the media loves a captive audience and they use fear as an attraction or retainer.

They are very adept at making a banquet out of a ham sandwich!!

[skip0358]

Why in the devil would you even think of evacuating Florida especially from a tropical storm. MAYBE relocate inland IF you were on the coast and the Mother storm was coming. Geez take a step back and relax.

[davem4616]

most of the homes in TV are safe to hunker down in during a hurricane, exception being the modular homes in the historic section

in 2017 we hunkered down here when TV took a direct hit with a hurricane...we had absolutely no damage...our home is block construction, not stick...but even the stick homes held up. The design of the roofs is critical, the developer got it right

back in 2008 we hunkered down during a Cat 5 direct hit from Wilma when we were in Ft Lauderdale, no damage (again in a block house construction)

if you're uncomfortable staying after listening to the Weather Channel on the television then seek higher ground that is away from the projected path....I do sense that the Weather Channel has become far too dramatic over the years and has a tendency to scare the heck out of people.

best job in the world is being a weather forecaster....if you're wrong and the storm misses, you get a pass,...if you nailed it and you get hit, everybody thinks you're great and says thanks. it's a win/win

[tuccillo]

Irma was either a cat1 or a tropical storm when it was closest to The Villages and was not a "direct hit" on The Villages. The track of the center of the circulation was west of us - closer to Crystal River than The Villages. As I have previously stated, this is of little actual consequence since the circulation was pretty wide when it was nearest to us. The true track of the center of the circulation matters for forecast verification purposes.

Wilma was not a cat5 hurricane over Florida. It was a cat2 or cat3 over FL and exited FL around Boca, IIRC. It was moving to the east/northeast after coming out of the Gulf.

There is no "right" or "wrong" with weather forecasting. We deal with probabilities of events happening. All forecasts have error bars, either implicitly or explicitly stated, and the errors decrease as we get close to the actual event. I know people want "yes" and "no" answers but few things in science work that way.

Weather forecasting is based, in part, on numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid motion plus computations of radiative transfer, parameterized turbulence including boundary layer effects, and phase change of water. This is an initial value problem where the initial state is known with various epsilons and is inherently a chaotic system, which places limits on predictability.

most of the homes in TV are safe to hunker down in during a hurricane, exception being the modular homes in the historic section

in 2017 we hunkered down here when TV took a direct hit with a hurricane...we had absolutely no damage...our home is block construction, not stick...but even the stick homes held up. The design of the roofs is critical, the developer got it right

back in 2008 we hunkered down during a Cat 5 direct hit from Wilma when we were in Ft Lauderdale, no damage (again in a block house construction)

if you're uncomfortable staying after listening to the Weather Channel on the television then seek higher ground that is away from the projected path....I do sense that the Weather Channel has become far too dramatic over the years and has a tendency to scare the heck out of people.

best job in the world is being a weather forecaster....if you're wrong and the storm misses, you get a pass,...if you nailed it and you get hit, everybody thinks you're great and says thanks. it's a win/win

[Seamus6]

I'm in Maryland and probably won't get down to TV for years but this is my hurricane preparedness plan for where I live:

Whole House generator. Check
90-120 days of food. Check (I'm a foodie with a lot of room in the house)
30 days of wine. Check
30 days of beer. Check
120 days of vodka. Check
120 days of rum. Check
.....100 other alcoholic items down the list...
360 days of backup alcohol. Check
6 rolls Toilet paper. Check. (not a lot of room left in the house after buying everything else) but also have a few reams of printer paper and last years tax return.

[Topspinmo]

I've done that, from sheer laziness. Going from Lowe's to Aldi's to Walgreens, all on 466A. You just don't know why that guy has his mask on. Maybe somebody farted in his car.


Masks don’t stop gas:icon_wink: only gas mask does :)

[JMintzer]

I'm in Maryland and probably won't get down to TV for years but this is my hurricane preparedness plan for where I live:

Whole House generator. Check
90-120 days of food. Check (I'm a foodie with a lot of room in the house)
30 days of wine. Check
30 days of beer. Check
120 days of vodka. Check
120 days of rum. Check
.....100 other alcoholic items down the list...
360 days of backup alcohol. Check
6 rolls Toilet paper. Check. (not a lot of room left in the house after buying everything else) but also have a few reams of printer paper and last years tax return.

Where in MD?

I think I just found my soul mate...

P.S. I have plenty of toilet paper to contribute to the effort...

[Seamus6]

Where in MD?

I think I just found my soul mate...

P.S. I have plenty of toilet paper to contribute to the effort...


We live in the People's Republic of Baltimore County thinking about TV for the future.

[JMintzer]

We live in the People's Republic of Baltimore County thinking about TV for the future.

Damn, in SW MoCo... A bit too far... Those long distance relationships never work... :icon_wink:

We've already made our "for the future" purchase. Still in the "honeymoon/vacation home" phase... Working on the exit strategy for the permanent move...

[Seamus6]

Damn, in SW MoCo... A bit too far... Those long distance relationships never work... :icon_wink:

We've already made our "for the future" purchase. Still in the "honeymoon/vacation home" phase... Working on the exit strategy for the permanent move...


It won't be quick enough for us if it were tomorrow. I love our neighborhood and neighbors but our county and state.....not so much

I hope you are able to transition to TV full-time as soon as you desire.