What we now know about how to fight the delta variant of COVID |

[Altavia]

Information Only

What we now know about how to fight the delta variant of COVID | Column (https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2021/08/10/what-we-now-know-about-how-to-fight-the-delta-variant-of-covid-column/)

An expert explains why vaccines — and masks — are so important, and why delta is different and more dangerous.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System.

I am in a unique position to report on what is going on with COVID-19, particularly the delta variant and why it’s so dangerous, and how it interacts with the vaccines. I’m the Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the entire Veterans Affairs system, with a specific role in advising on elements of COVID testing for the system.

As such, I have a front row seat to all of the latest data since we use that information to make our national-policy decisions. So, here are a few important points that help explain why you should get vaccinated and wear a mask. I’ll do my best to stitch this all together so it makes sense:

1. Like Gorilla Glue. The delta variant (lineage B.1.617.2) has a particular collection of mutations in the spike protein (that knob-like projection you see in renderings of the virus) that make it extremely effective in attaching to human cells and gaining entry. If the original COVID strains were covered in syrup, this variant is covered in ultrafast-drying Gorilla Super Glue (industrial strength).

2. 1,000 times higher. There are two recent publications which demonstrate that the viral loads in the back of the throats of infected patients are 1,000 times higher with the delta than with previous variants. I can tell you from data in my own labs, that is absolutely true. We are seeing viral signals we never saw last year using the exact same assays.

3. Much more infectious. This much higher load plus the ultra “stickiness” of the delta strains for adhering to human cells makes it remarkably more infectious than previous strains. You may have heard of R0 (Pronounced R naught) which is, in a nutshell, the number of people to which an infected person would be expected to transmit the virus. Early versions of the virus had a 2 to 2.5 R0 value. So one infected person would infect two or so people on average. Delta has an R0 of about eight! In the infectious disease world, that’s almost unheard of. Chickenpox and measles are about all we have ever seen that spread that efficiently from human to human. This changes the story line completely from earlier in the pandemic and makes this surge, in many ways, like a completely different pandemic event.

4. Five days. There is another recent publication out of Singapore with data that confirms something we suspected. I will explain more about the “why” on this below when I talk about vaccines, but the gist is this: The viral loads in the throats of vaccinated persons who become infected with delta rises at identical rates as in unvaccinated persons, but only for the first few days. After five days or so, the viral loads in the vaccinated person start to quickly drop whereas those in the unvaccinated person persist. This key set of observations is important for several reasons relating to vaccinated persons serving as vectors for spread (see below).

5. Young people. This pandemic, Round 2, is primarily being observed in younger patients than in Round 1. Our children’s hospitals are even already filling up or full. Because of the delta viral dynamics, it is much more capable of causing severe disease in a larger swath of the population. You spew enough of any human pathogen on someone without immunity, and it’s not going to end well. This sets up very poorly for the beginning of the school year — which has already started in Florida — and it scares me. Check that. It is actually terrifying. I sure hope we have vaccines for the 5- to 11-year-olds soon.

6. Vaccines work! Speaking of vaccines. Are they working? Yes! They are absolutely doing their expected job. We know a lot about vaccines for upper respiratory viruses, as we have been giving the population one every year for decades (influenza). To explain all of this, I need to provide some biological context. When you get a vaccine as a “shot,” the “antigen” in the vaccine leads to formation of an antibody response. You probably knew that. What’s important, though, is that it primarily leads to a specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) response. That’s the antibody type that circulates around in really high numbers in the blood, is located some in tissues and is more easily detectable by blood tests, etc.

What that shot does not do is produce an Immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibody response to the virus at the surface of the throat mucosa. That’s the antibody type that could prevent the virus from ever binding in the first place. As such, in a vaccinated person, the virus can still attach like it’s about to break into the house, but it doesn’t realize that there is an armed homeowner on the other side of the door. When that virus is detected, the IgG beats it up and clears it before the person gets very ill (or ill at all). (Sidebar: Anyone ever had their kid — or themselves — get the “Flumist” vaccine as their annual flu booster? The idea there is to introduce the antigens at the surface of the throat mucosa leading to that IgA response that will prevent infection from happening at all. Sounds good and still has a place, but it isn’t quite as effective overall as the shot.)

7. Preventing disease and death. The COVID-19 vaccines are designed to prevent disease/death through that IgG response (though it does also reduce infections somewhat). How good are the vaccines at doing all of this with delta? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has just released data addressing that very question. Punchline: They’re remarkably good! The vaccine shows an 8-fold reduction in the development of any symptomatic disease secondary to delta. For hospitalization, it is a 25-fold reduction. That’s 25 times! Remarkable. For death, it is also 25 times! This is a very effective pharmaceutical class when looking at overall efficacy toward the intended/expected purpose. When looking at the very tiny side effect profile, I’d personally consider it one of the best overall pharmaceuticals on the market in any class of drugs.

8. So, you’re vaccinated? First of all, a sincere, heart-felt thank you! But you may now ask, so why do I again need to wear a mask? We talked about disease, hospitalizations and death above, but what about infections themselves? The vaccines are now estimated to provide a 3-times reduction in infection. For reasons that I tried to make clear above, it isn’t surprising that the vaccine is less effective at preventing infection vs. preventing disease. We are indeed seeing detectable virus, at high levels, in asymptomatic, vaccinated persons when we test them prior to procedures, etc. We have a few that are mildly symptomatic, too.

While we now understand that the virus fades from the back of the throat pretty quickly in a vaccinated person, we also know that an infected, vaccinated person can transmit this very infectious virus to others for at least a couple of days. So, as before, you are being asked to wear a mask to primarily protect others.

We need you again to interrupt the transmission cycle of the virus, as you don’t know when you might be infectious. The vaccine alone cannot interrupt this cycle when there is a lot of virus in the community within unprotected persons.

9. What’s next? I live and practice in Iowa, and I see the tsunami wave on the horizon. It’s typical for respiratory viruses to begin in the southern United States (where it is hot and everyone clusters indoors in the air conditioning to escape the heat) and then creep north to affect those areas when it gets colder (and people go inside because it’s getting colder). If you live in the north and are not vaccinated, it is not too late, but it’s getting damn close. It’s also time to start wearing masks in public again (ugh...I hate it, too).

Those of you in the south, particularly in Florida, know that the tsunami is already on your shores. If you weren’t already off the beach, you might be in trouble. However, if you are there and haven’t yet been affected, run like hell to metaphorical higher ground — get vaccinated, wear a mask.

I beg of you, watch that wave and don’t ignore it. I have zero political agenda (I hate politics). I’m just a nerdy scientist and physician who loves you all, and I certainly don’t want to see a mass of my friends grieving — or dead — because I didn’t yell loud enough to get you and your families off that beach. So, run! (to your pharmacy ... driving is allowed). You don’t want any part of this thing without vaccine on board.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System. He is the past president of the Academy of Clinical Laboratory Physicians and Scientists (ACLPS) and chairs the National VA Clinical Microbiology Council in addition to his national roles referenced above. This is adapted from a Facebook post with permission of the author.

[Bonnevie]

thank you. a very good explanation that's easy for all to understand.

[Two Bills]

The problem is the same as a church congregation all singing from different song sheets.
Sounds awfull.
All sing off same songsheet.
Sounds heavenly.
To many experts, politicians, rights advocates, and looney tune followers all giving conflicting advice has reduced the Covid response to farcicall proportions.
Fleetwood Macs advice is good, 'Go your own way.'
Look after yourself!

[ROCKMUP]

:blahblahblah::blahblahblah::blahblahblah:
Give it 30 seconds and it will all change again.

How about you take care of you and not worry about anyone else

[Boomer]

Information Only

What we now know about how to fight the delta variant of COVID | Column (https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2021/08/10/what-we-now-know-about-how-to-fight-the-delta-variant-of-covid-column/)

An expert explains why vaccines — and masks — are so important, and why delta is different and more dangerous.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System.

I am in a unique position to report on what is going on with COVID-19, particularly the delta variant and why it’s so dangerous, and how it interacts with the vaccines. I’m the Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the entire Veterans Affairs system, with a specific role in advising on elements of COVID testing for the system.

As such, I have a front row seat to all of the latest data since we use that information to make our national-policy decisions. So, here are a few important points that help explain why you should get vaccinated and wear a mask. I’ll do my best to stitch this all together so it makes sense:

1. Like Gorilla Glue. The delta variant (lineage B.1.617.2) has a particular collection of mutations in the spike protein (that knob-like projection you see in renderings of the virus) that make it extremely effective in attaching to human cells and gaining entry. If the original COVID strains were covered in syrup, this variant is covered in ultrafast-drying Gorilla Super Glue (industrial strength).

2. 1,000 times higher. There are two recent publications which demonstrate that the viral loads in the back of the throats of infected patients are 1,000 times higher with the delta than with previous variants. I can tell you from data in my own labs, that is absolutely true. We are seeing viral signals we never saw last year using the exact same assays.

3. Much more infectious. This much higher load plus the ultra “stickiness” of the delta strains for adhering to human cells makes it remarkably more infectious than previous strains. You may have heard of R0 (Pronounced R naught) which is, in a nutshell, the number of people to which an infected person would be expected to transmit the virus. Early versions of the virus had a 2 to 2.5 R0 value. So one infected person would infect two or so people on average. Delta has an R0 of about eight! In the infectious disease world, that’s almost unheard of. Chickenpox and measles are about all we have ever seen that spread that efficiently from human to human. This changes the story line completely from earlier in the pandemic and makes this surge, in many ways, like a completely different pandemic event.

4. Five days. There is another recent publication out of Singapore with data that confirms something we suspected. I will explain more about the “why” on this below when I talk about vaccines, but the gist is this: The viral loads in the throats of vaccinated persons who become infected with delta rises at identical rates as in unvaccinated persons, but only for the first few days. After five days or so, the viral loads in the vaccinated person start to quickly drop whereas those in the unvaccinated person persist. This key set of observations is important for several reasons relating to vaccinated persons serving as vectors for spread (see below).

5. Young people. This pandemic, Round 2, is primarily being observed in younger patients than in Round 1. Our children’s hospitals are even already filling up or full. Because of the delta viral dynamics, it is much more capable of causing severe disease in a larger swath of the population. You spew enough of any human pathogen on someone without immunity, and it’s not going to end well. This sets up very poorly for the beginning of the school year — which has already started in Florida — and it scares me. Check that. It is actually terrifying. I sure hope we have vaccines for the 5- to 11-year-olds soon.

6. Vaccines work! Speaking of vaccines. Are they working? Yes! They are absolutely doing their expected job. We know a lot about vaccines for upper respiratory viruses, as we have been giving the population one every year for decades (influenza). To explain all of this, I need to provide some biological context. When you get a vaccine as a “shot,” the “antigen” in the vaccine leads to formation of an antibody response. You probably knew that. What’s important, though, is that it primarily leads to a specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) response. That’s the antibody type that circulates around in really high numbers in the blood, is located some in tissues and is more easily detectable by blood tests, etc.

What that shot does not do is produce an Immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibody response to the virus at the surface of the throat mucosa. That’s the antibody type that could prevent the virus from ever binding in the first place. As such, in a vaccinated person, the virus can still attach like it’s about to break into the house, but it doesn’t realize that there is an armed homeowner on the other side of the door. When that virus is detected, the IgG beats it up and clears it before the person gets very ill (or ill at all). (Sidebar: Anyone ever had their kid — or themselves — get the “Flumist” vaccine as their annual flu booster? The idea there is to introduce the antigens at the surface of the throat mucosa leading to that IgA response that will prevent infection from happening at all. Sounds good and still has a place, but it isn’t quite as effective overall as the shot.)

7. Preventing disease and death. The COVID-19 vaccines are designed to prevent disease/death through that IgG response (though it does also reduce infections somewhat). How good are the vaccines at doing all of this with delta? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has just released data addressing that very question. Punchline: They’re remarkably good! The vaccine shows an 8-fold reduction in the development of any symptomatic disease secondary to delta. For hospitalization, it is a 25-fold reduction. That’s 25 times! Remarkable. For death, it is also 25 times! This is a very effective pharmaceutical class when looking at overall efficacy toward the intended/expected purpose. When looking at the very tiny side effect profile, I’d personally consider it one of the best overall pharmaceuticals on the market in any class of drugs.

8. So, you’re vaccinated? First of all, a sincere, heart-felt thank you! But you may now ask, so why do I again need to wear a mask? We talked about disease, hospitalizations and death above, but what about infections themselves? The vaccines are now estimated to provide a 3-times reduction in infection. For reasons that I tried to make clear above, it isn’t surprising that the vaccine is less effective at preventing infection vs. preventing disease. We are indeed seeing detectable virus, at high levels, in asymptomatic, vaccinated persons when we test them prior to procedures, etc. We have a few that are mildly symptomatic, too.

While we now understand that the virus fades from the back of the throat pretty quickly in a vaccinated person, we also know that an infected, vaccinated person can transmit this very infectious virus to others for at least a couple of days. So, as before, you are being asked to wear a mask to primarily protect others.

We need you again to interrupt the transmission cycle of the virus, as you don’t know when you might be infectious. The vaccine alone cannot interrupt this cycle when there is a lot of virus in the community within unprotected persons.

9. What’s next? I live and practice in Iowa, and I see the tsunami wave on the horizon. It’s typical for respiratory viruses to begin in the southern United States (where it is hot and everyone clusters indoors in the air conditioning to escape the heat) and then creep north to affect those areas when it gets colder (and people go inside because it’s getting colder). If you live in the north and are not vaccinated, it is not too late, but it’s getting damn close. It’s also time to start wearing masks in public again (ugh...I hate it, too).

Those of you in the south, particularly in Florida, know that the tsunami is already on your shores. If you weren’t already off the beach, you might be in trouble. However, if you are there and haven’t yet been affected, run like hell to metaphorical higher ground — get vaccinated, wear a mask.

I beg of you, watch that wave and don’t ignore it. I have zero political agenda (I hate politics). I’m just a nerdy scientist and physician who loves you all, and I certainly don’t want to see a mass of my friends grieving — or dead — because I didn’t yell loud enough to get you and your families off that beach. So, run! (to your pharmacy ... driving is allowed). You don’t want any part of this thing without vaccine on board.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System. He is the past president of the Academy of Clinical Laboratory Physicians and Scientists (ACLPS) and chairs the National VA Clinical Microbiology Council in addition to his national roles referenced above. This is adapted from a Facebook post with permission of the author.



Thank you. Good, clear explanation. I wonder if the "My mind is made up. Don't confuse me with the facts" crowd in residence here on TOTV will read it.

News articles are showing up about insurance companies planning to raise out-of-pocket costs for the unvaccinated who end up needing medical treatment for Covid. Once FDA approval is announced, that should do it. I hope. There is also talk of raising premiums for the unvaccinated.

I have been concerned that all of us would see premium increases due to having to carry those who choose to continue to freeload on the responsible behavior of the vaccinated. We all know insurance companies do not lose money.

[nick demis]

Thank you. Good, clear explanation. I wonder if the "My mind is made up. Don't confuse me with the facts" crowd in residence here on TOTV will read it.

News articles are showing up about insurance companies planning to raise out-of-pocket costs for the unvaccinated who end up needing medical treatment for Covid. Once FDA approval is announced, that should do it. I hope. There is also talk of raising premiums for the unvaccinated.

I have been concerned that all of us would see premium increases due to having to carry those who choose to continue to freeload on the responsible behavior of the vaccinated. We all know insurance companies do not lose money.

And what about the reports and articles from experts that disagree with this article (and I bet there are plenty), are they wrong? Maybe, maybe not. I have no faith in either side since they all claim they know best. Someone earlier posted the best response "go your own way". As someone that went to school as a physics major, I am shamed by the politicizing of science.

[shut the front door]

Thank you. Good, clear explanation. I wonder if the "My mind is made up. Don't confuse me with the facts" crowd in residence here on TOTV will read it.

News articles are showing up about insurance companies planning to raise out-of-pocket costs for the unvaccinated who end up needing medical treatment for Covid. Once FDA approval is announced, that should do it. I hope. There is also talk of raising premiums for the unvaccinated.

I have been concerned that all of us would see premium increases due to having to carry those who choose to continue to freeload on the responsible behavior of the vaccinated. We all know insurance companies do not lose money.

What about all the fat people who continue to freeload on the responsible behavior of those who choose a healthier lifestyle? According to the National Institutes of Health, obesity and overweight together are the second leading cause of preventable death in the United States.

[MDLNB]

Thank you. Good, clear explanation. I wonder if the "My mind is made up. Don't confuse me with the facts" crowd in residence here on TOTV will read it.

News articles are showing up about insurance companies planning to raise out-of-pocket costs for the unvaccinated who end up needing medical treatment for Covid. Once FDA approval is announced, that should do it. I hope. There is also talk of raising premiums for the unvaccinated.

I have been concerned that all of us would see premium increases due to having to carry those who choose to continue to freeload on the responsible behavior of the vaccinated. We all know insurance companies do not lose money.


So the real truth is the dollar, huh? Worried about how much it will cost you, and not really the common good after all, right?

[Two Bills]

What about all the fat people who continue to freeload on the responsible behavior of those who choose a healthier lifestyle? According to the National Institutes of Health, obesity and overweight together are the second leading cause of preventable death in the United States.

Never heard of anyone catching 'fat' from a fat infected carrrier!':icon_wink:

[Bucco]

So the real truth is the dollar, huh? Worried about how much it will cost you, and not really the common good after all, right?

The tremendous increase in health care that will be explosive as a result of this whole mess will affect everybody

[Bucco]

And what about the reports and articles from experts that disagree with this article (and I bet there are plenty), are they wrong? Maybe, maybe not. I have no faith in either side since they all claim they know best. Someone earlier posted the best response "go your own way". As someone that went to school as a physics major, I am shamed by the politicizing of science.

This country could have and would have been a model for the entire world.

We cut ourselves off from the world and politicized it from the start.

But it is a shame and most assuredly, history will reflect it that way.

[SkBlogW]

Thank you. Good, clear explanation. I wonder if the "My mind is made up. Don't confuse me with the facts" crowd in residence here on TOTV will read it.

News articles are showing up about insurance companies planning to raise out-of-pocket costs for the unvaccinated who end up needing medical treatment for Covid. Once FDA approval is announced, that should do it. I hope. There is also talk of raising premiums for the unvaccinated.

I have been concerned that all of us would see premium increases due to having to carry those who choose to continue to freeload on the responsible behavior of the vaccinated. We all know insurance companies do not lose money.

Oh You mean the "my minds made up don't confuse me with facts" crowd that still thinks the laws of physics are suspended when it's pointed out that covid spreads through very fine aerosols that go through masks like gnats through a chain link fence?

Or how bout the ones who insist masks work to stop covid infections even though real world data shows the complete opposite?

90465

The obesity and diabetic epidemics in America are what causes higher insurance rates. Obesity is what caused our covid death rate to soar over most countries.

CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized for Covid were overweight or obese

Covid: CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized were overweight or obese (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html)

I know! Lets tell all fat people to lose at least 50 pounds or their covid hospital bills are not covered. :MOJE_whot:

[Velvet]

OP, if I remember correctly you were in the trials when we didn’t know if the vaccine could really have severe permanent side effects or even kill. That is courage.

Later you kept sharing bits of your knowledge to help us understand more about this virus.

I am very grateful for both the information and the resulting advice. I do believe there will be Covid-deaf individuals who will dismiss whatever as they chose not to hear. Not to see. It is not a matter of belief because science doesn’t hinge on belief. Interpretation maybe. For the rest of us, please keep posting.

[Bill14564]

Oh You mean the "my minds made up don't confuse me with facts" crowd that still thinks the laws of physics are suspended when it's pointed out that covid spreads through very fine aerosols that go through masks like gnats through a chain link fence?

Or how bout the ones who insist masks work to stop covid infections even though real world data shows the complete opposite?

90465

The obesity and diabetic epidemics in America are what causes higher insurance rates. Obesity is what caused our covid death rate to soar over most countries.

CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized for Covid were overweight or obese

Covid: CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized were overweight or obese (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html)

I know! Lets tell all fat people to lose at least 50 pounds or their covid hospital bills are not covered. :MOJE_whot:

What percentage of the U.S. population is considered overweight or obese? Is 78% significant or is it more of a cross section?

[SkBlogW]

What percentage of the U.S. population is considered overweight or obese? Is 78% significant or is it more of a cross section?

CDC says:

The US obesity prevalence was 42.4% in 2017 – 2018.

From 1999 –2000 through 2017 –2018, US obesity prevalence increased from 30.5% to 42.4%. During the same time, the prevalence of severe obesity increased from 4.7% to 9.2%.

Obesity-related conditions include heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and certain types of cancer. These are among the leading causes of preventable, premature death.

The estimated annual medical cost of obesity in the United States was $147 billion in 2008. Medical costs for people who had obesity was $1,429 higher than medical costs for people with healthy weight.

Adult Obesity Facts | Overweight & Obesity | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html)

We are the most obese nation on earth except for some island nations in the South Pacific and Kuwait.

Is 78% significant? Obviously. I think obesity at 78% of hospitalized covid patients is the highest for any comorbidity other than maybe old age. Not sure what you mean by cross section. It means if you eat too many quadruple burgers with extra sauce and get covid, you are likely to end up in the hospital.

[Bill14564]

CDC says:

The US obesity prevalence was 42.4% in 2017 – 2018.

From 1999 –2000 through 2017 –2018, US obesity prevalence increased from 30.5% to 42.4%. During the same time, the prevalence of severe obesity increased from 4.7% to 9.2%.

Obesity-related conditions include heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and certain types of cancer. These are among the leading causes of preventable, premature death.

The estimated annual medical cost of obesity in the United States was $147 billion in 2008. Medical costs for people who had obesity was $1,429 higher than medical costs for people with healthy weight.

Adult Obesity Facts | Overweight & Obesity | CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html)

We are the most obese nation on earth except for some island nations in the South Pacific and Kuwait.

Is 78% significant? Obviously. I think obesity at 78% of hospitalized covid patients is the highest for any comorbidity other than maybe old age. Not sure what you mean by cross section. It means if you eat too many quadruple burgers with extra sauce and get covid, you are likely to end up in the hospital.

Your statistic was overweight or obese at 78%. Obesity is 42% but there is some percentage of the population that contributes to the overweight category. If the combined overweight or obese percentage of the US is in the 70s then your statistic looks more like a random sampling than a significant indicator.

Unfortunately, I have forgotten the equations for determining statistical significance.

[Swoop]

Your statistic was overweight or obese at 78%. Obesity is 42% but there is some percentage of the population that contributes to the overweight category. If the combined overweight or obese percentage of the US is in the 70s then your statistic looks more like a random sampling than a significant indicator.

Unfortunately, I have forgotten the equations for determining statistical significance.
According to the CDC: “Having obesity may triple the risk of hospitalization due to a COVID-19 infection“

[SkBlogW]

Your statistic was overweight or obese at 78%. Obesity is 42% but there is some percentage of the population that contributes to the overweight category. If the combined overweight or obese percentage of the US is in the 70s then your statistic looks more like a random sampling than a significant indicator.

Unfortunately, I have forgotten the equations for determining statistical significance.

Not my statistic, the CDC calculated that one.

Covid: CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized were overweight or obese (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html)

The agency found the risk for hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths was lowest among individuals with BMIs under 25. The risk of severe illness “sharply increased,” however, as BMIs rose, particularly among people 65 and older, the agency said.

[Bill14564]

According to the CDC: “Having obesity may triple the risk of hospitalization due to a COVID-19 infection“

Not my statistic, the CDC calculated that one.

Covid: CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized were overweight or obese (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html)

The agency found the risk for hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths was lowest among individuals with BMIs under 25. The risk of severe illness “sharply increased,” however, as BMIs rose, particularly among people 65 and older, the agency said.

Just a little hard to reconcile that when the study showed the distribution in covid hospitalizations was similar to the distribution in the population. Would be useful to see the study and the actual data.

[SkBlogW]

Just a little hard to reconcile that when the study showed the distribution in covid hospitalizations was similar to the distribution in the population. Would be useful to see the study and the actual data.

Millions of Americans have had covid, only a small percentage (5%?) of them get really sick, go to hospital and/or die. Of this cohort, 78% are overweight or obese.

[Bill14564]

Millions of Americans have had covid, only a small percentage (5%?) of them get really sick, go to hospital and/or die. Of this cohort, 78% are overweight or obese.

Something like 70% of Americans are overweight or obese. If someone blindly picked 148,000 people they are likely to find that around 70% are overweight or obese. "Random" is never really random so the percentages would not be exactly the same. The question is whether 78% is higher in a statistically significant sense.

Looking at it from the other direction:
There are millions of Americans. Perhaps (I can't find the data) 30% of them fall into the the category of not overweight or obese. A study of about 148,000 patients found that only 22% of them fell into the category of not overweight or obese. Either the wording on the article was poor (distinct possibility) or the study found that the demographics of the hospitalized patients closely matched the demographics of Americans as if they were randomly picked off the street with no regard to weight.

Note that one of the limitations of the study was it could only consider patients where height and weight were listed. The data could be biased towards overweight or obese as the hospitals look for comorbidities. In other words, the hospital *might* list height and weight for overweight and obese patients more often than for patients who had a more "healthy" weight.

[Swoop]

Something like 70% of Americans are overweight or obese. If someone blindly picked 148,000 people they are likely to find that around 70% are overweight or obese. "Random" is never really random so the percentages would not be exactly the same. The question is whether 78% is higher in a statistically significant sense.

Looking at it from the other direction:
There are millions of Americans. Perhaps (I can't find the data) 30% of them fall into the the category of not overweight or obese. A study of about 148,000 patients found that only 22% of them fell into the category of not overweight or obese. Either the wording on the article was poor (distinct possibility) or the study found that the demographics of the hospitalized patients closely matched the demographics of Americans as if they were randomly picked off the street with no regard to weight.

Note that one of the limitations of the study was it could only consider patients where height and weight were listed. The data could be biased towards overweight or obese as the hospitals look for comorbidities. In other words, the hospital *might* list height and weight for overweight and obese patients more often than for patients who had a more "healthy" weight.

Let’s look at the demographics of those who have died from Covid as reported by the CDC. 78% were overweight or obese, with the odds 3X greater for obese people. Of those who died, they averaged 2.4 comorbidities. Those were primarily, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and hypertension.
This is not a cross section of the general population. It is primarily overweight, unhealthy individuals. Spin that any way you want to make yourself feel better…

[Aces4]

The tremendous increase in health care that will be explosive as a result of this whole mess will affect everybody

Yeah, premiums will soar and providers, medical clinics, hospitals and supplies will be strained but it has nothing to do with covid.

[Bill14564]

Let’s look at the demographics of those who have died from Covid as reported by the CDC. 78% were overweight or obese, with the odds 3X greater for obese people. Of those who died, they averaged 2.4 comorbidities. Those were primarily, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and hypertension.
This is not a cross section of the general population. It is primarily overweight, unhealthy individuals. Spin that any way you want to make yourself feel better…

Primarily overweight, unhealthy individuals *IS* a cross section of the general population.

The ratios matter and those haven't been as easy to find but if 42% are obese (CDC info) then it wouldn't be hard to believe that another 30% are just overweight. If 72% of the general population is overweight or obese and 78% of covid deaths were overweight or obese then, from these numbers, the covid deaths appear to match the demographics of the general population.

It is not my intention to make a claim about the risk of covid, only that the numbers presented do not appear to support the assertion that weight is a significant factor. It might be, but that can't be seen from these numbers.

[Michread]

The Vaccine Causes The Virus To Be More Dangerous (https://rumble.com/vkfz1v-the-vaccine-causes-the-virus-to-be-more-dangerous.html)

[Bucco]

Yeah, premiums will soar and providers, medical clinics, hospitals and supplies will be strained but it has nothing to do with covid.

And I was replying to MDLNB who made a retort to Boomer.
——++++————-

“So the real truth is the dollar, huh? Worried about how much it will cost you, and not really the common good after all, right?”
——————————

It was an unfair critique.

[Boomer]

The Vaccine Causes The Virus To Be More Dangerous (https://rumble.com/vkfz1v-the-vaccine-causes-the-virus-to-be-more-dangerous.html)



Your link is from a far right source. It is important not to ju$t $imply cite a $ource the$e days — you need to really con$ider what’$ behind it.

If you would like to learn more about Robert Malone and his claims, google his name and theatlantic.com and you will find an article that I hope will give you some more to think about.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Millions of Americans have had covid, only a small percentage (5%?) of them get really sick, go to hospital and/or die. Of this cohort, 78% are overweight or obese.

Millions have had COVID-19, only a small percentage (5%?) get really sick, go to the hospital and/or die. Of this cohort, 100% have inhaled air.

Every single one of them have inhaled air. That's statistically more significant than the mere 78% that are overweight or obese.

Therefore, breathing causes 100% of all hospitalized/dead COVID patients.

Because statistics, amirite?

[Malsua]

Or how bout the ones who insist masks work to stop covid infections even though real world data shows the complete opposite?

:

Unless and until the mask mandates require N95, they are a joke. Paper and cloth masks do essentially zero to prevent infection. They are a bit of source control, but if you are coughing and sneezing, stay the hell home. I know that I don't let other people sneeze in my mouth either, so I don't need someone else to wear a mask to prevent it.

I am vaxxed. I support these vaccines, but If I were a woman or a family member was pregnant or about to become that way, I'd hold off until afterward. Sorry, I've heard enough DIRECT person experience from women I know that have had their cycles thrown into chaos after getting vaxxed. It took one woman I know almost 3 months to get back to normal. Not saying not to get vaxxed, saying there's something there, what, I don't know, but it's not worth it for sub 30YO to take that risk if she plans on having a baby.

[Swoop]

Primarily overweight, unhealthy individuals *IS* a cross section of the general population.

The ratios matter and those haven't been as easy to find but if 42% are obese (CDC info) then it wouldn't be hard to believe that another 30% are just overweight. If 72% of the general population is overweight or obese and 78% of covid deaths were overweight or obese then, from these numbers, the covid deaths appear to match the demographics of the general population.

It is not my intention to make a claim about the risk of covid, only that the numbers presented do not appear to support the assertion that weight is a significant factor. It might be, but that can't be seen from these numbers.
I would like to see the data that supports your claim that the average person in the US has at least two of either, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes or hypertension…

[Malsua]

According to the CDC: “Having obesity may triple the risk of hospitalization due to a COVID-19 infection“

Every time you hear about some 12 year old who died of covid, take a look at the pictures. It's not some kid who's got pictures of little league or football practice, mountain climbing, etc. it's typically a kid whose parents let them eat themselves into double their appropriate body weight. There are exceptions, but obesity is CLEARLY a leading cause of death in Covid patients and there is a ton of data that backs it up.

[Bill14564]

I would like to see the data that supports your claim that the average person in the US has at least two of either, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes or hypertension…

I did not make that claim.

Hopefully, that aggregation of personal health information is not available on the internet, at least for living individuals.

As I stated in the post you quoted, my point is only about the 78% number given in the particular study.

[Swoop]

I did not make that claim.

Hopefully, that aggregation of personal health information is not available on the internet, at least for living individuals.

As I stated in the post you quoted, my point is only about the 78% number given in the particular study.
I posted that 78% of Covid deaths were among the overweight and obese and if you were obese you were 3X more likely to be hospitalized. My post also stated that those who died from Covid averaged 2.4 of the following comorbidities; heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and hypertension.
You replied: That *IS* a cross section of the US population!!

So, show me where the average American has 2.4 of those health issues.

You can’t. And my statement remains the same. Covid deaths are predominantly among people who are overweight and in poor health. That is statistically true.

[Bill14564]

I posted that 78% of Covid deaths were among the overweight and obese and if you were obese you were 3X more likely to be hospitalized. My post also stated that those who died from Covid averaged 2.4 of the following comorbidities; heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and hypertension.
You replied: That *IS* a cross section of the US population!!

So, show me where the average American has 2.4 of those health issues.

You can’t. And my statement remains the same. Covid deaths are predominantly among people who are overweight and in poor health. That is statistically true.

As I stated, I hope the data to "show me where" does not exist on the internet. (Though I will note, again, that I did not make any claim about 2.4 comorbidities)

Your statement that covid deaths are predominantly among people who are overweight and in poor health remains true and the statement that 78% of hospitalized covid patients in one study were overweight or obese (CDC) may also be true. My statement is also true that if approximately 78% of the American population is overweight or obese then weight alone is not an indicator of covid hospitalization.

[Swoop]

As I stated, I hope the data to "show me where" does not exist on the internet. (Though I will note, again, that I did not make any claim about 2.4 comorbidities)

Your statement that covid deaths are predominantly among people who are overweight and in poor health remains true and the statement that 78% of hospitalized covid patients in one study were overweight or obese (CDC) may also be true. My statement is also true that if approximately 78% of the American population is overweight or obese then weight alone is not an indicator of covid hospitalization.
How about the statement from the CDC that says if you are obese, you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid?

[Bill14564]

How about the statement from the CDC that says if you are obese, you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid?

That statement is not proven by an article that shows the demographics of patients matches the demographics of the US population.

Perhaps the article was poorly written. Perhaps the statistics were bad. Perhaps any number of things. As I wrote previously, it is not my intention to make a claim about the risk of covid, only that the numbers presented do not appear to support the assertion that weight is a significant factor. It might be, but that can't be seen from these numbers.

[ThirdOfFive]

I posted that 78% of Covid deaths were among the overweight and obese and if you were obese you were 3X more likely to be hospitalized. My post also stated that those who died from Covid averaged 2.4 of the following comorbidities; heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and hypertension.
You replied: That *IS* a cross section of the US population!!

So, show me where the average American has 2.4 of those health issues.

You can’t. And my statement remains the same. Covid deaths are predominantly among people who are overweight and in poor health. That is statistically true.
"You can’t. And my statement remains the same. Covid deaths are predominantly among people who are overweight and in poor health. That is statistically true. "

It is. And it is probably the ONLY statistic in this whole mess that is for the most part unchangeable.

...Which points out the problem with this entire "discussion". It has degenerated over time to, at best, dueling statistics. At worst, it is people basically choosing up sides and cherry-picking statistics that support their beliefs while ignoring those numbers which do not. It has been evident for some time now that the number of people looking not for information but for VALIDATION is the problem with this whole COVID "discussion".

I choose not to see it by numbers. Instead I see it in terms of our basic freedoms as Americans. The numbers mean nothing to me.

[shut the front door]

Never heard of anyone catching 'fat' from a fat infected carrrier!':icon_wink:

Fat is a personal choice, as is vaccinating. Apples to apples.

[Swoop]

That statement is not proven by an article that shows the demographics of patients matches the demographics of the US population.

Perhaps the article was poorly written. Perhaps the statistics were bad. Perhaps any number of things. As I wrote previously, it is not my intention to make a claim about the risk of covid, only that the numbers presented do not appear to support the assertion that weight is a significant factor. It might be, but that can't be seen from these numbers.

How can you use this tag line on your posts, and ignore the facts.
“COVID: Some people insist on denying what is right before their eyes. I am not trying to convince you, I am trying to provide real, verifiable data for any who care to see it.”
🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
According to the CDC, if you are obese, you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid…

[Bill14564]

How can you use this tag line on your posts, and ignore the facts.
“COVID: Some people insist on denying what is right before their eyes. I am not trying to convince you, I am trying to provide real, verifiable data for any who care to see it.”
🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
According to the CDC, if you are obese, you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid…

I am not ignoring any facts at all.

Read what I wrote: I did not attempt to dispute the CDC statement. My point is they could not support that statement with a survey that shows 78% of hospitalized patients are overweight or obese.

If you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid when you are overweight or obese then the survey would show that nearly 90% of hospitalized patients are overweight or obese. That particular study did not show that. That particular study does not support the 3X assertion. The 3X assertion may be correct but other data must have been used to derive it.

[lkagele]

Your link is from a far right source. It is important not to ju$t $imply cite a $ource the$e days — you need to really con$ider what’$ behind it.

If you would like to learn more about Robert Malone and his claims, google his name and theatlantic.com and you will find an article that I hope will give you some more to think about.

I wouldn't necessarily consider The Atlantic to be a reliable source. It's left leaning and the article referenced is an opinion piece. An opinion by a well informed author but an opinion nonetheless.

I wouldn't entirely dismiss Malone. Even The Atlantic concedes he was a pioneer in the science behind these vaccines. I'm a simple layman for sure but as far as I can tell, everything he's saying in that podcast follows the information presented by the OP.

From what I've seen and read about Malone, his primary theme is that we should be focusing on treatment rather than having a reliance simply on vaccines. He believes there are repurposed drugs out there that are very effective in treating early stage COVID. And, for whatever reasons, Fauci, the FDA and the CDC are not relaying that important information to the general public.

[Swoop]

I am not ignoring any facts at all.

Read what I wrote: I did not attempt to dispute the CDC statement. My point is they could not support that statement with a survey that shows 78% of hospitalized patients are overweight or obese.

If you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid when you are overweight or obese then the survey would show that nearly 90% of hospitalized patients are overweight or obese. That particular study did not show that. That particular study does not support the 3X assertion. The 3X assertion may be correct but other data must have been used to derive it.

Comprehension Bill. If you are OBESE, you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid. NOT if you are obese or overweight. If you are OBESE you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid.

[Velvet]

When Covid was first really noticed (around March 2020) there was a bariatric surgeon, Dr Vuong, from Texas who treated over weight patients. He noticed (and posted many you tube videos why this happened) that his relatively young but overweight patients, after a long successful fight to lose weight, dropped like flies from Covid. The doctor explained how being obese permanently damages lung cells and makes one so susceptible to dying from Covid. His YouTube on “How Covid-19 kills-I’m a surgeon…” was a wake-up call for me as some of my family is quite over weight.

[Bill14564]

I posted that 78% of Covid deaths were among the overweight and obese and if you were obese you were 3X more likely to be hospitalized. My post also stated that those who died from Covid averaged 2.4 of the following comorbidities; heart disease, lung disease, diabetes and hypertension.
You replied: That *IS* a cross section of the US population!!

So, show me where the average American has 2.4 of those health issues.

You can’t. And my statement remains the same. Covid deaths are predominantly among people who are overweight and in poor health. That is statistically true.

Comprehension Bill. If you are OBESE, you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid. NOT if you are obese or overweight. If you are OBESE you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid.

If OBESE make up 42% of the population and were 3X more likely to be hospitalized then the overweight or OBESE percentage would only be in the 84% to 87% range. Now we're getting close to a statistically insignificant difference from 78% which again shows that these data do not prove the 3X statement.

And one FINAL time: I am not disputing the 3X statement, I am disputing that this survey demonstrates that statement.

[Swoop]

If OBESE make up 42% of the population and were 3X more likely to be hospitalized then the overweight or OBESE percentage would only be in the 84% to 87% range. Now we're getting close to a statistically insignificant difference from 78% which again shows that these data do not prove the 3X statement.

And one FINAL time: I am not disputing the 3X statement, I am disputing that this survey demonstrates that statement.

Bill, are you really having trouble comprehending? If you are OBESE you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid.
You are 3X more likely than anyone who is NOT obese to be hospitalized.
If you are OBESE your chances of being hospitalized with Covid TRIPLES.
So if you use the CDC’s numbers, 69% of Covid hospitalizations are people who were OBESE.

[Bill14564]

Bill, are you really having trouble comprehending? If you are OBESE you are 3X more likely to be hospitalized with Covid.
You are 3X more likely than anyone who is NOT obese to be hospitalized.
If you are OBESE your chances of being hospitalized with Covid TRIPLES.
So if you use the CDC’s numbers, 69% of Covid hospitalizations are people who were OBESE.

And the CDC number from the article was 78% of hospitalizations were overweight or obese. Since 69% are obese then only 9% of the hospitalizations were simply overweight. But about 30% - 35% of the US population is overweight so it follows that you are LESS likely to be hospitalized if you are overweight.

But that doesn't make sense, does it?

So there is something wrong with the numbers, and probably the numbers in the survey.

[Bill14564]

Since I seem to have hijacked the thread, here is the original post to bring things back around. I will have nothing more to say about the 78% number.

Information Only

What we now know about how to fight the delta variant of COVID | Column (https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2021/08/10/what-we-now-know-about-how-to-fight-the-delta-variant-of-covid-column/)

An expert explains why vaccines — and masks — are so important, and why delta is different and more dangerous.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System.

I am in a unique position to report on what is going on with COVID-19, particularly the delta variant and why it’s so dangerous, and how it interacts with the vaccines. I’m the Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the entire Veterans Affairs system, with a specific role in advising on elements of COVID testing for the system.

As such, I have a front row seat to all of the latest data since we use that information to make our national-policy decisions. So, here are a few important points that help explain why you should get vaccinated and wear a mask. I’ll do my best to stitch this all together so it makes sense:

1. Like Gorilla Glue. The delta variant (lineage B.1.617.2) has a particular collection of mutations in the spike protein (that knob-like projection you see in renderings of the virus) that make it extremely effective in attaching to human cells and gaining entry. If the original COVID strains were covered in syrup, this variant is covered in ultrafast-drying Gorilla Super Glue (industrial strength).

2. 1,000 times higher. There are two recent publications which demonstrate that the viral loads in the back of the throats of infected patients are 1,000 times higher with the delta than with previous variants. I can tell you from data in my own labs, that is absolutely true. We are seeing viral signals we never saw last year using the exact same assays.

3. Much more infectious. This much higher load plus the ultra “stickiness” of the delta strains for adhering to human cells makes it remarkably more infectious than previous strains. You may have heard of R0 (Pronounced R naught) which is, in a nutshell, the number of people to which an infected person would be expected to transmit the virus. Early versions of the virus had a 2 to 2.5 R0 value. So one infected person would infect two or so people on average. Delta has an R0 of about eight! In the infectious disease world, that’s almost unheard of. Chickenpox and measles are about all we have ever seen that spread that efficiently from human to human. This changes the story line completely from earlier in the pandemic and makes this surge, in many ways, like a completely different pandemic event.

4. Five days. There is another recent publication out of Singapore with data that confirms something we suspected. I will explain more about the “why” on this below when I talk about vaccines, but the gist is this: The viral loads in the throats of vaccinated persons who become infected with delta rises at identical rates as in unvaccinated persons, but only for the first few days. After five days or so, the viral loads in the vaccinated person start to quickly drop whereas those in the unvaccinated person persist. This key set of observations is important for several reasons relating to vaccinated persons serving as vectors for spread (see below).

5. Young people. This pandemic, Round 2, is primarily being observed in younger patients than in Round 1. Our children’s hospitals are even already filling up or full. Because of the delta viral dynamics, it is much more capable of causing severe disease in a larger swath of the population. You spew enough of any human pathogen on someone without immunity, and it’s not going to end well. This sets up very poorly for the beginning of the school year — which has already started in Florida — and it scares me. Check that. It is actually terrifying. I sure hope we have vaccines for the 5- to 11-year-olds soon.

6. Vaccines work! Speaking of vaccines. Are they working? Yes! They are absolutely doing their expected job. We know a lot about vaccines for upper respiratory viruses, as we have been giving the population one every year for decades (influenza). To explain all of this, I need to provide some biological context. When you get a vaccine as a “shot,” the “antigen” in the vaccine leads to formation of an antibody response. You probably knew that. What’s important, though, is that it primarily leads to a specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) response. That’s the antibody type that circulates around in really high numbers in the blood, is located some in tissues and is more easily detectable by blood tests, etc.

What that shot does not do is produce an Immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibody response to the virus at the surface of the throat mucosa. That’s the antibody type that could prevent the virus from ever binding in the first place. As such, in a vaccinated person, the virus can still attach like it’s about to break into the house, but it doesn’t realize that there is an armed homeowner on the other side of the door. When that virus is detected, the IgG beats it up and clears it before the person gets very ill (or ill at all). (Sidebar: Anyone ever had their kid — or themselves — get the “Flumist” vaccine as their annual flu booster? The idea there is to introduce the antigens at the surface of the throat mucosa leading to that IgA response that will prevent infection from happening at all. Sounds good and still has a place, but it isn’t quite as effective overall as the shot.)

7. Preventing disease and death. The COVID-19 vaccines are designed to prevent disease/death through that IgG response (though it does also reduce infections somewhat). How good are the vaccines at doing all of this with delta? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has just released data addressing that very question. Punchline: They’re remarkably good! The vaccine shows an 8-fold reduction in the development of any symptomatic disease secondary to delta. For hospitalization, it is a 25-fold reduction. That’s 25 times! Remarkable. For death, it is also 25 times! This is a very effective pharmaceutical class when looking at overall efficacy toward the intended/expected purpose. When looking at the very tiny side effect profile, I’d personally consider it one of the best overall pharmaceuticals on the market in any class of drugs.

8. So, you’re vaccinated? First of all, a sincere, heart-felt thank you! But you may now ask, so why do I again need to wear a mask? We talked about disease, hospitalizations and death above, but what about infections themselves? The vaccines are now estimated to provide a 3-times reduction in infection. For reasons that I tried to make clear above, it isn’t surprising that the vaccine is less effective at preventing infection vs. preventing disease. We are indeed seeing detectable virus, at high levels, in asymptomatic, vaccinated persons when we test them prior to procedures, etc. We have a few that are mildly symptomatic, too.

While we now understand that the virus fades from the back of the throat pretty quickly in a vaccinated person, we also know that an infected, vaccinated person can transmit this very infectious virus to others for at least a couple of days. So, as before, you are being asked to wear a mask to primarily protect others.

We need you again to interrupt the transmission cycle of the virus, as you don’t know when you might be infectious. The vaccine alone cannot interrupt this cycle when there is a lot of virus in the community within unprotected persons.

9. What’s next? I live and practice in Iowa, and I see the tsunami wave on the horizon. It’s typical for respiratory viruses to begin in the southern United States (where it is hot and everyone clusters indoors in the air conditioning to escape the heat) and then creep north to affect those areas when it gets colder (and people go inside because it’s getting colder). If you live in the north and are not vaccinated, it is not too late, but it’s getting damn close. It’s also time to start wearing masks in public again (ugh...I hate it, too).

Those of you in the south, particularly in Florida, know that the tsunami is already on your shores. If you weren’t already off the beach, you might be in trouble. However, if you are there and haven’t yet been affected, run like hell to metaphorical higher ground — get vaccinated, wear a mask.

I beg of you, watch that wave and don’t ignore it. I have zero political agenda (I hate politics). I’m just a nerdy scientist and physician who loves you all, and I certainly don’t want to see a mass of my friends grieving — or dead — because I didn’t yell loud enough to get you and your families off that beach. So, run! (to your pharmacy ... driving is allowed). You don’t want any part of this thing without vaccine on board.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System. He is the past president of the Academy of Clinical Laboratory Physicians and Scientists (ACLPS) and chairs the National VA Clinical Microbiology Council in addition to his national roles referenced above. This is adapted from a Facebook post with permission of the author.

[Wyseguy]

The problem is the same as a church congregation all singing from different song sheets.
Sounds awfull.
All sing off same songsheet.
Sounds heavenly.
To many experts, politicians, rights advocates, and looney tune followers all giving conflicting advice has reduced the Covid response to farcicall proportions.
Fleetwood Macs advice is good, 'Go your own way.'
Look after yourself!

You see, I believe different voices, allowing people to explore different viewpoints, not censoring people, I believe that is beautiful. Everyone being forced to read the same script sounds a bit like fascism to me.

[Wyseguy]

Your statistic was overweight or obese at 78%. Obesity is 42% but there is some percentage of the population that contributes to the overweight category. If the combined overweight or obese percentage of the US is in the 70s then your statistic looks more like a random sampling than a significant indicator.

Unfortunately, I have forgotten the equations for determining statistical significance.

Using a two tailed test, if I recall correctly (it has been awhile since I studied this without a computer:
Come up with a null hypothesis.
Create an alternative hypothesis.
Arrive at the significance level.
State the test you will use
Determine sample size
determine standard deviation..
Arrive at the t-score and the degrees of freedom
Use a t-table marked with the sd and the two ends sd/.5
Why are we doing this?

[Velvet]

You see, I believe different voices, allowing people to explore different viewpoints, not censoring people, I believe that is beautiful. Everyone being forced to read the same script sounds a bit like fascism to me.


“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”


― Daniel Patrick Moynihan

[Velvet]

Using a two tailed test, if I recall correctly (it has been awhile since I studied this without a computer:
Come up with a null hypothesis.
Create an alternative hypothesis.
Arrive at the significance level.
State the test you will use
Determine sample size
determine standard deviation..
Arrive at the t-score and the degrees of freedom
Use a t-table marked with the sd and the two ends sd/.5
Why are we doing this?

Trying to deflect from the topic, that’s what it looks like to me. And … it’s not working.

[Boffin]

Information Only

What we now know about how to fight the delta variant of COVID | Column (https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2021/08/10/what-we-now-know-about-how-to-fight-the-delta-variant-of-covid-column/)

An expert explains why vaccines — and masks — are so important, and why delta is different and more dangerous.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System.

I am in a unique position to report on what is going on with COVID-19, particularly the delta variant and why it’s so dangerous, and how it interacts with the vaccines. I’m the Special Assistant to the National Director of Pathology and Lab Medicine for the entire Veterans Affairs system, with a specific role in advising on elements of COVID testing for the system.

As such, I have a front row seat to all of the latest data since we use that information to make our national-policy decisions. So, here are a few important points that help explain why you should get vaccinated and wear a mask. I’ll do my best to stitch this all together so it makes sense:

1. Like Gorilla Glue. The delta variant (lineage B.1.617.2) has a particular collection of mutations in the spike protein (that knob-like projection you see in renderings of the virus) that make it extremely effective in attaching to human cells and gaining entry. If the original COVID strains were covered in syrup, this variant is covered in ultrafast-drying Gorilla Super Glue (industrial strength).

2. 1,000 times higher. There are two recent publications which demonstrate that the viral loads in the back of the throats of infected patients are 1,000 times higher with the delta than with previous variants. I can tell you from data in my own labs, that is absolutely true. We are seeing viral signals we never saw last year using the exact same assays.

3. Much more infectious. This much higher load plus the ultra “stickiness” of the delta strains for adhering to human cells makes it remarkably more infectious than previous strains. You may have heard of R0 (Pronounced R naught) which is, in a nutshell, the number of people to which an infected person would be expected to transmit the virus. Early versions of the virus had a 2 to 2.5 R0 value. So one infected person would infect two or so people on average. Delta has an R0 of about eight! In the infectious disease world, that’s almost unheard of. Chickenpox and measles are about all we have ever seen that spread that efficiently from human to human. This changes the story line completely from earlier in the pandemic and makes this surge, in many ways, like a completely different pandemic event.

4. Five days. There is another recent publication out of Singapore with data that confirms something we suspected. I will explain more about the “why” on this below when I talk about vaccines, but the gist is this: The viral loads in the throats of vaccinated persons who become infected with delta rises at identical rates as in unvaccinated persons, but only for the first few days. After five days or so, the viral loads in the vaccinated person start to quickly drop whereas those in the unvaccinated person persist. This key set of observations is important for several reasons relating to vaccinated persons serving as vectors for spread (see below).

5. Young people. This pandemic, Round 2, is primarily being observed in younger patients than in Round 1. Our children’s hospitals are even already filling up or full. Because of the delta viral dynamics, it is much more capable of causing severe disease in a larger swath of the population. You spew enough of any human pathogen on someone without immunity, and it’s not going to end well. This sets up very poorly for the beginning of the school year — which has already started in Florida — and it scares me. Check that. It is actually terrifying. I sure hope we have vaccines for the 5- to 11-year-olds soon.

6. Vaccines work! Speaking of vaccines. Are they working? Yes! They are absolutely doing their expected job. We know a lot about vaccines for upper respiratory viruses, as we have been giving the population one every year for decades (influenza). To explain all of this, I need to provide some biological context. When you get a vaccine as a “shot,” the “antigen” in the vaccine leads to formation of an antibody response. You probably knew that. What’s important, though, is that it primarily leads to a specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) response. That’s the antibody type that circulates around in really high numbers in the blood, is located some in tissues and is more easily detectable by blood tests, etc.

What that shot does not do is produce an Immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibody response to the virus at the surface of the throat mucosa. That’s the antibody type that could prevent the virus from ever binding in the first place. As such, in a vaccinated person, the virus can still attach like it’s about to break into the house, but it doesn’t realize that there is an armed homeowner on the other side of the door. When that virus is detected, the IgG beats it up and clears it before the person gets very ill (or ill at all). (Sidebar: Anyone ever had their kid — or themselves — get the “Flumist” vaccine as their annual flu booster? The idea there is to introduce the antigens at the surface of the throat mucosa leading to that IgA response that will prevent infection from happening at all. Sounds good and still has a place, but it isn’t quite as effective overall as the shot.)

7. Preventing disease and death. The COVID-19 vaccines are designed to prevent disease/death through that IgG response (though it does also reduce infections somewhat). How good are the vaccines at doing all of this with delta? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has just released data addressing that very question. Punchline: They’re remarkably good! The vaccine shows an 8-fold reduction in the development of any symptomatic disease secondary to delta. For hospitalization, it is a 25-fold reduction. That’s 25 times! Remarkable. For death, it is also 25 times! This is a very effective pharmaceutical class when looking at overall efficacy toward the intended/expected purpose. When looking at the very tiny side effect profile, I’d personally consider it one of the best overall pharmaceuticals on the market in any class of drugs.

8. So, you’re vaccinated? First of all, a sincere, heart-felt thank you! But you may now ask, so why do I again need to wear a mask? We talked about disease, hospitalizations and death above, but what about infections themselves? The vaccines are now estimated to provide a 3-times reduction in infection. For reasons that I tried to make clear above, it isn’t surprising that the vaccine is less effective at preventing infection vs. preventing disease. We are indeed seeing detectable virus, at high levels, in asymptomatic, vaccinated persons when we test them prior to procedures, etc. We have a few that are mildly symptomatic, too.

While we now understand that the virus fades from the back of the throat pretty quickly in a vaccinated person, we also know that an infected, vaccinated person can transmit this very infectious virus to others for at least a couple of days. So, as before, you are being asked to wear a mask to primarily protect others.

We need you again to interrupt the transmission cycle of the virus, as you don’t know when you might be infectious. The vaccine alone cannot interrupt this cycle when there is a lot of virus in the community within unprotected persons.

9. What’s next? I live and practice in Iowa, and I see the tsunami wave on the horizon. It’s typical for respiratory viruses to begin in the southern United States (where it is hot and everyone clusters indoors in the air conditioning to escape the heat) and then creep north to affect those areas when it gets colder (and people go inside because it’s getting colder). If you live in the north and are not vaccinated, it is not too late, but it’s getting damn close. It’s also time to start wearing masks in public again (ugh...I hate it, too).

Those of you in the south, particularly in Florida, know that the tsunami is already on your shores. If you weren’t already off the beach, you might be in trouble. However, if you are there and haven’t yet been affected, run like hell to metaphorical higher ground — get vaccinated, wear a mask.

I beg of you, watch that wave and don’t ignore it. I have zero political agenda (I hate politics). I’m just a nerdy scientist and physician who loves you all, and I certainly don’t want to see a mass of my friends grieving — or dead — because I didn’t yell loud enough to get you and your families off that beach. So, run! (to your pharmacy ... driving is allowed). You don’t want any part of this thing without vaccine on board.

Dr. J. Stacey Klutts is a clinical associate professor of pathology and clinical microbiology at the University of Iowa and is the chief of the Pathology and Laboratory Service for the Central Iowa VA Health Care System. He is the past president of the Academy of Clinical Laboratory Physicians and Scientists (ACLPS) and chairs the National VA Clinical Microbiology Council in addition to his national roles referenced above. This is adapted from a Facebook post with permission of the author.

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[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Pretty straight-forward to me. What we know, and what we've known even before the vaccines were formulated.

The best way to handle COVID is prevention. The most efficient way, we knew then, and know now, would be for at least 80% of the population to get a vaccine as soon as logistically possible, with the people most at risk of SPREADING the disease, to be vaccinated first. While we wait for that to happen, we mask, wash our hands, and keep a social distance.

Nothing has changed. We still should mask, wash our hands, and keep a social distance while we wait for 80% of the population to be vaccinated.

If we had all been vaccinated months ago, we could've been mostly unmasked, been able to hug our family/friends/neighbors, but you still should wash your hands a couple times a day plus after going to the bathroom, because that's just good hygiene.

[Boffin]

Ivermectin

[Two Bills]

You see, I believe different voices, allowing people to explore different viewpoints, not censoring people, I believe that is beautiful. Everyone being forced to read the same script sounds a bit like fascism to me.

Car rides must be exciting with you driving!:icon_wink:

[Altavia]

Nothing has changed. We still should mask, wash our hands, and keep a social distance while we wait for 80% of the population to be vaccinated.


Unfortunately, a learning from the article is since the Delta varient generates a three log ncrease in viral load, herd Immunity will require greater than 85-90% of the global population have immunity which is unlikely to happen.

3. Much more infectious. This much higher load plus the ultra “stickiness” of the delta strains for adhering to human cells makes it remarkably more infectious than previous strains. You may have heard of R0 (Pronounced R naught) which is, in a nutshell, the number of people to which an infected person would be expected to transmit the virus. Early versions of the virus had a 2 to 2.5 R0 value. So one infected person would infect two or so people on average. Delta has an R0 of about eight! In the infectious disease world, that’s almost unheard of. Chickenpox and measles are about all we have ever seen that spread that efficiently from human to human. This changes the story line completely from earlier in the pandemic and makes this surge, in many ways, like a completely different pandemic event."