Housing market direction indicator

[Koapaka]

For those wondering if this housing market will slow down or stop anytime soon, interesting read.

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)

[DAVES]

For those wondering if this housing market will slow down or stop anytime soon, interesting read.

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)

Like most things we tend to believe what is now will always be so. It is like a perfect storm. Skilled labor shortage, low mortgage interest etc and high tax incentives. Any can change. Real estate and the stock market always go up-except when they don't. We bought in the villages 9 years ago and of course on paper our home is worth more than we paid. Reality, assuming I am still alive, I will need to live somewhere and that too wherever or whatever will also cost more.

[justjim]

For those wondering if this housing market will slow down or stop anytime soon, interesting read.

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)

I don’t have a “crystal ball” but for all the reasons cited in the article and adding The Villages (TV) specifically to where prices are going, I think prices will not go down or even level off for a couple of years. A lot of people still want to move to a warmer climate after they retire. Florida, Arizona, North and South Carolina, and Texas seem very popular places to live these days. Not to mention lower taxes in these States. However, taxes are also likely to be higher in these States in the future too. TV has gotten more expensive over the last fifteen years. The dream of retiring here may be beyond some retirees income than it was fifteen years ago and that is understandably sad.

[DAVES]

I don’t have a “crystal ball” but for all the reasons cited in the article and adding The Villages (TV) specifically to where prices are going, I think prices will not go down or even level off for a couple of years. A lot of people still want to move to a warmer climate after they retire. Florida, Arizona, North and South Carolina, and Texas seem very popular places to live these days. Not to mention lower taxes in these States. However, taxes are also likely to be higher in these States in the future too. TV has gotten more expensive over the last fifteen years. The dream of retiring here may be beyond some retirees income than it was fifteen years ago and that is understandably sad.

I seem to have a strange view on most things. Happiness is a choice we make. I've been poor. Truth I NEVER said I would be happy if only I could have. Money does not buy happiness it does make misery more fun and more affordable.

A home is a long term commitment. What to spend? For all of us it is a guess. There was that term house poor.

Taxes? We are ex-New Yorkers. We ran from a 6% state tax, a 3% city tax and real estate tax that would make you cry. Truth. HUH. I think Florida oranges are or were cheaper in New York.

We were happy there and are happy here. Snow is pretty. Should it ever snow here a snow shovel is called a manure shovel.

Nothing is ever perfect. I for one have far more than I ever thought I would.

Woulda, shoulda, coulda does not ever bring happiness

[rustyp]

For those wondering if this housing market will slow down or stop anytime soon, interesting read.

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)

Let's assume 2 people per household for the moment. If we are short 5 million homes where are these ten million people living now ?

[vintageogauge]

Let's assume 2 people per household for the moment. If we are short 5 million homes where are these ten million people living now ?

with their parents

[thevillages2013]

Let's assume 2 people per household for the moment. If we are short 5 million homes where are these ten million people living now ?
Tents:bigbow:

[Babubhat]

Lower priced homes are in demand and will not go down. Many reit with billions of capital buy them and rent them. Just hope they don’t come here

[Cschultz]

Coming across the border.

[Robnlaura]

Lot of talk about the housing bubble at the moment a lot of chatter on where it’s going .. the overall is that we are on the edge of a housing crash.. I tend to agree that this will happen. I get agents tell me that the villages don’t go down except they don’t tell you from 2006 to 2012 it did drop like a rock. Yes with the rest of the country from 2012 to today it’s gone up.. The Coming Housing Market Crash | How Bad It'll Be. - YouTube (https://youtu.be/yBGsl2TvNso)

[Barryb46]

let's assume 2 people per household for the moment. If we are short 5 million homes where are these ten million people living now ?
with their parents! :)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Where are they living? One of the problems is that the boomer population is living a lot longer and more affluently, ie, the villages, some with two houses, so when there was a turnover of houses to a younger generation in the past, is exacerbated with living longer and having more houses

not the same as the past, so that is why there is a shortage, and with the economics so favorable along with the working from home movement due to technology, that is the perfect storm. . .

trends move slowly, and trend disruptors also move slowly, until it hits a tipping point, and then the unknown event pushes it over. Read Malcom Gladwell book, the tipping point. Happens all the time.

[Coopcasa]

For those wondering if this housing market will slow down or stop anytime soon, interesting read.

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)

In citing the shortage, they use the term ‘single-family home’, which to me has typically meant a stand-alone home, not a condo or townhouse. So wondering if, in this context, single-family home also includes the latter?

[Luggage]

Up 100% one year! But you need to be a millionaire to live there.

[Luggage]

Happiness is have two cents and only spending one . You are in a great zone!!!! The rich people I know have great unhappiness in their lives, it's people like you and I had just get along that seemed to do the best

[Blackbird45]

Housing prices will always fluctuate.

No one truly knows when a home has hit its highest point or when it will drop.
Until it actually happens there is no a true explanation for the cause anything prior are just assumptions.
If you are not a speculator and are looking for a home to live in pay whatever you thing is appropriate.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

I don’t have a “crystal ball” but for all the reasons cited in the article and adding The Villages (TV) specifically to where prices are going, I think prices will not go down or even level off for a couple of years. A lot of people still want to move to a warmer climate after they retire. Florida, Arizona, North and South Carolina, and Texas seem very popular places to live these days. Not to mention lower taxes in these States. However, taxes are also likely to be higher in these States in the future too. TV has gotten more expensive over the last fifteen years. The dream of retiring here may be beyond some retirees income than it was fifteen years ago and that is understandably sad. me. There are lots of wonderful places all around the villages to live ,I love the villager but for many who can’t afford to live here it’s not sad , it’s just life

[richdell]

Let's assume 2 people per household for the moment. If we are short 5 million homes where are these ten million people living now ?

Renting?

[Moderator]

To be clear: according to the powers that be, any reference to the border and people coming over it (or not) is considered to be political and will not be allowed. Infractions will be given. Have a nice day, and please follow the site rules.

[frose]

remember 2008. 35%loss on housing, inflation, oil prices.. 2021 will make that look like a cake walk..6$a gallon gas, housing WILL tank loosing around 38% of it's current value, 7.50 for a gallon of milk.. Look around it's already started. look at you grocery bill, cable bill, water bill, electricity bill.. we better wake up and do it soon. this will be a depression for the ages!!!!!

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

The sky is falling , the sky is falling , oh my

[jimjamuser]

For those wondering if this housing market will slow down or stop anytime soon, interesting read.

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)
There would be no shortage if those "deciders" did NOT want it that way. Extreme Zoning (that are for other than safety) keeps up the shortage. Innovative ideas like micro and mini homes and dome homes are rejected "out of hand". European homes are built, NOT on-site, but rather on factory assembly lines to have greater quality, safety, and LOWER cost.
Notice that in the early years of automobiles, each car was made "on-site" by hand. Then Henry Ford started the factory assembly line and cars became available to the general public. The same thing could be done for houses, but tradition and vested interests get in the way of progress.
And a roof over one's head is a better way out of poverty and health problems than driving a car!

[jimjamuser]

Like most things we tend to believe what is now will always be so. It is like a perfect storm. Skilled labor shortage, low mortgage interest etc and high tax incentives. Any can change. Real estate and the stock market always go up-except when they don't. We bought in the villages 9 years ago and of course on paper our home is worth more than we paid. Reality, assuming I am still alive, I will need to live somewhere and that too wherever or whatever will also cost more.
One could move to a small town in Alaska, Maine, or any state having ongoing migration and have lots of spending money left over. I remember one smart man at my swimming pool who a couple of years ago sold his house here in TV Land and move to some inexpensive resort in some Central American beach area. ( sorry I don't remember the exact country because I was NOT, personally interested)

[jimjamuser]

I don’t have a “crystal ball” but for all the reasons cited in the article and adding The Villages (TV) specifically to where prices are going, I think prices will not go down or even level off for a couple of years. A lot of people still want to move to a warmer climate after they retire. Florida, Arizona, North and South Carolina, and Texas seem very popular places to live these days. Not to mention lower taxes in these States. However, taxes are also likely to be higher in these States in the future too. TV has gotten more expensive over the last fifteen years. The dream of retiring here may be beyond some retirees income than it was fifteen years ago and that is understandably sad.
With Global Warming, South Carolina probably has about the climate and temperature that Florida had in the 1950s - that is to say that the summers are probably inhabitable in S. Carolina. Go Gamecocks!

[jimjamuser]

Let's assume 2 people per household for the moment. If we are short 5 million homes where are these ten million people living now ?
Immigration keeps population from staying constant and it always grows creating upward GNP and questionable "Quality of Life". Cycles of housing market rises and drops catch some that bought "too much house" living homeless in their cars and on the sidewalks and under bridges. That can be devastating to people trying to create wealth by owning a home and starting a family. And these recurring cycles harm the overall wealth and prosperity of US society - while having greater adverse effects on the many economic and ethnic factions making up the nation. And different states have different degrees of empathy toward the unlucky, unsuccessful lower end of the social spectrum - for example, varying amounts and time periods for unemployment benefits. The housing cycle is very difficult to predict and its effects are felt throughout society.

[jimjamuser]

///

[jimjamuser]

Where are they living? One of the problems is that the boomer population is living a lot longer and more affluently, ie, the villages, some with two houses, so when there was a turnover of houses to a younger generation in the past, is exacerbated with living longer and having more houses

not the same as the past, so that is why there is a shortage, and with the economics so favorable along with the working from home movement due to technology, that is the perfect storm. . .

trends move slowly, and trend disruptors also move slowly, until it hits a tipping point, and then the unknown event pushes it over. Read Malcom Gladwell book, the tipping point. Happens all the time.
Not all trends move S-L-O-W-L-Y. I read the book, "the Black Swan", about the SUDDEN subprime crash. Also, the CV Pandemic CRASHED pretty rapidly on our shores. And we may or may NOT recover depending on a small portion of America that seems intent at driving America into the ditch of human History.

[Blueblaze]

10,000 boomers retire every day. Meanwhile, 20,000 foreign invaders cross the border every day into the welcoming arms of the folks who were hired to keep them out.

There's some math in there that says boomers are going to continue to get good price for their old house, and Florida is going to have a hard time building new houses fast enough to give them some place to retire to.

And on top of all that, we have a FED pumping 5 trillion bucks a year into an already inflated economy.

Yes, this bubble will burst someday. But until it does, I don't know a better place to put my retirement savings than Florida real estate. I don't think you can stack enough gold in your closet safe to do you much good when inflation hits Carter levels.

[Bogie Shooter]

10,000 boomers retire every day. Meanwhile, 20,000 foreign invaders cross the border every day into the welcoming arms of the folks who were hired to keep them out.

There's some math in there that says boomers are going to continue to get good price for their old house, and Florida is going to have a hard time building new houses fast enough to give them some place to retire to.

And on top of all that, we have a FED pumping 5 trillion bucks a year into an already inflated economy.

Yes, this bubble will burst someday. But until it does, I don't know a better place to put my retirement savings than Florida real estate. I don't think you can stack enough gold in your closet safe to do you much good when inflation hits Carter levels.

What did your first paragraph add to your post ?

[Blueblaze]

What did your first paragraph add to your post ?

Math. Look it up. It's a thing.

[Robnlaura]

55% of the buyers are small investors today in a down market who’s gonna sell first. Low rates caused the last crash just saying

[JMintzer]

What did your first paragraph add to your post ?

Probably at least a warning, if not a "time out"...

[Blueblaze]

Probably at least a warning, if not a "time out"...

Sorry if I triggered anybody, but I was born in America. I can read a little Orwellian, but my accent in Newspeak is indecipherable. So I find it easier to just say things in English. Frankly, I don't even know what the current Newspeak word for "Foreign Invasion" is these days. Are they still calling 20,000 people a day illegally invading a foreign country "migrants"? They've been using it on Fox News, so if it's not wrongthink by now, it soon will be.

Does use of English rather than Newspeak warrant a timeout ? I thought that was just for being political. It's hard to tell what's OK in a world where getting a shot is a political act.

I was just trying to explain the math that indicates that retirement real estate is likely to be a safe place to put your money. Our population grew by a third in the last 20 years, while the birth rate was negative. In English, the word for that is "invasion". But whatever you want to call it, when there are more people who need a house than there are houses that exist, houses are going to be a good investment.

It's something we should all consider in our retirement plans, regardless of which language we speak.

[JMintzer]

Sorry if I triggered anybody, but I was born in America. I can read a little Orwellian, but my accent in Newspeak is indecipherable. So I find it easier to just say things in English. Frankly, I don't even know what the current Newspeak word for "Foreign Invasion" is these days. Are they still calling 20,000 people a day illegally invading a foreign country "migrants"? They've been using it on Fox News, so if it's not wrongthink by now, it soon will be.

Does use of English rather than Newspeak warrant a timeout ? I thought that was just for being political. It's hard to tell what's OK in a world where getting a shot is a political act.

I was just trying to explain the math that indicates that retirement real estate is likely to be a safe place to put your money. Our population grew by a third in the last 20 years, while the birth rate was negative. In English, the word for that is "invasion". But whatever you want to call it, when there are more people who need a house than there are houses that exist, houses are going to be a good investment.

It's something we should all consider in our retirement plans, regardless of which language we speak.

"Newspeak" has nothing to do with your blatant political posts, which are not allowed on this website...

[Blueblaze]

"Newspeak" has nothing to do with your blatant political posts, which are not allowed on this website...

Well, no doubt you've already reported my politically incorrect use of English in Oceania, so problem solved, right?

[Normal]

Prices are here to stay. The last “bubble burst” wasn’t similar in any way or fashion. A shortage of 5 million plus houses, isn’t going to repair itself anytime soon.

And then there is the situation of blue tarp cities of illegal aliens which could amount to almost 2 million people this year.
‘Never’ before: 1.85 million illegal border crossings projected, 10,000 in one camp | Washington Examiner (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/never-before-1-85-million-illegal-border-crossings-projected-10-000-in-one-camp)

They have to live somewhere. I don’t look to seeing any financial collapse on the horizon.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

remember 2008. 35%loss on housing, inflation, oil prices.. 2021 will make that look like a cake walk..6$a gallon gas, housing WILL tank loosing around 38% of it's current value, 7.50 for a gallon of milk.. Look around it's already started. look at you grocery bill, cable bill, water bill, electricity bill.. we better wake up and do it soon. this will be a depression for the ages!!!!!and so has our generation and yet most are still doing okay , there are always the prophets of doom screaming just wait the next one coming is going to be the worst and maybe it will be but people will survive and prosper anyway because we are resilient

[manaboutown]

55% of the buyers are small investors today in a down market who’s gonna sell first. Low rates caused the last crash just saying

The federal government had an inane agenda at that time that literally forced lenders to loan money to people who did not qualify for the loans. So they complied, of course profiting themselves in one way or another.

[jdulej]

I am from Northern California, land of boom and bust. I know people who paid $900k for a home only to be forced to sell it for $400K and see that same house sell again for over a million. The key (or a key) I think is to make sure you are not in a position to be forced to do anything, and you need to have the balls to watch your paper wealth go up in smoke. 2008 was a great example. There are still people who are terrified of the stock market and have what little they have left sitting in a .5% saving account.
All that said, TV is starting to look interesting. We are sitting on a paper gain that way outstrips the rest of Florida as far as I can tell. If our $400k house will sell in a day for $900k, and I can buy a $600K house that's bigger/better anywhere else in Fl (maybe not next to mar-a-lago), why don't I? The only reason is the amenities, but (this is just my personal feeling) they are starting to look a bit worn out to me.

[Bogie Shooter]

"Newspeak" has nothing to do with your blatant political posts, which are not allowed on this website...

:beer3:What he said……..

[frose]

pay attention to what is going on.. inflation will be at 15%.. gas prices 6$ a gallon, milk 7.50$ a gallon.. look at what interest rates are and the amount of funny money this government is printing. building supplies 250% increase ...think back to 2008 and you'll get it!!

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Seriously?

5 Grindell Ave, Dennis Pt, MA 02639 | Zillow (https://www.zillow.com/homes/5-Grindell-Ave-Dennis-Pt,-MA-02639_rb/55867592_zpid/)

this market is continuing higher due to boomers retiring with money and living longer and just check out this house,
we just rented it for a week. notice the current value, which is accurate based upon sales on the same block, and the sq feet and lot size. Built in the 1930s

puts TV to shame with price per sq foot.

[jswirs]

For those wondering if this housing market will slow down or stop anytime soon, interesting read.

America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)

What goes up, must come down. Case in point: We bought a house in Ocean City, NJ, in the mid-90's. By the year 2000 the value of that house was escalating by about $50,000.00 per year. About 6 years later the bubble broke, and what was worth, at one time, about about $640,000.00 dropped to about $450,000.00. Still, MUCH more that what we paid in the mid-90's, but yes, I believe this bubble will also break as well.

[Normal]

If inflation is funding the market drive the houses won’t decrease in price. I have never seen a general decrease in prices across everything and my “Spidey Senses” say inflation as about to kick into high gear.

[Robnlaura]

Lol that’s funny contrary to every depression known to man .. good spider senses

[Timothyimitchell]

Lol that’s funny contrary to every depression known to man .. good spider senses

Patio villas still available in The new Fenney. Markets stabilizing? Less desirable area? Peak in pricing? I say a combination of the three. With less desirable area at the top. I think had these been in Citrus Grove or St. Catherine, very few would be unsold.

[vintageogauge]

Patio villas still available in The new Fenney. Markets stabilizing? Less desirable area? Peak in pricing? I say a combination of the three. With less desirable area at the top. I think had these been in Citrus Grove or St. Catherine, very few would be unsold.

They just released the villas in Hammock of Fenney, they are still priced very high and are selling quickly. We purchased an investment villa 20 months ago at $192,000 the exact duplicate of that villa and without a washer and drier was sold immediately at $253,000 in Hammock. Villas are in demand, if anything is slowing down it's the high six figure homes and even those are selling, just taking a little longer.

[Timothyimitchell]

They just released the villas in Hammock of Fenney, they are still priced very high and are selling quickly. We purchased an investment villa 20 months ago at $192,000 the exact duplicate of that villa and without a washer and drier was sold immediately at $253,000 in Hammock. Villas are in demand, if anything is slowing down it's the high six figure homes and even those are selling, just taking a little longer.

Take it from an out of state shopper. Catherine and Grove villas were sold in a day. Sometimes hours. Fenney have made it 2 days. So far. Lol. Just making a comment on my observations. No offense.

[Normal]

Prices won’t drop for several reasons:

There is an overall shortage of housing across the country
Inflationary movement is happening
The retirement aged population is increasing
Costs for building new structures are here to stay

[gego3650]

living in Fla since 60s I can tell you prices will fall again.Have seen this sudden increase numerous times