Hazard a guess on what the future holds for house prices?

[manaboutown]

It has been an amazing run! When will it stop? Then what?

Anyone care to opine?

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-shiller-home-price-july-2021-130004846.html)

[Stu from NYC]

They will continue to go up until they go down.

And think down in the next few months.

[Koapaka]

I'm afraid with this inflation we are going to see the price of NOTHING including housing retreat/stabilize and those of us old enough to remember might think the inflation of the Carter administration and16% home loan rates and rationed gasoline issues of old were a walk in the park. :(

[inda50]

It seems to me that house prices and the stock market are intertwined, and more recently supply line shortages of labor and materials. Any one of these can start a cascade in the others. Right now they are all strong. Which will be the first to break ? There are a lot of people involved in and promoting the stock market, so it will probably keep clicking along until some thing unforeseen happens. Then there are housing prices. Just when I think they can't go any higher, they do. Usually competition in the building market keep prices from escalating, but due to all builders competing to find labor and materials, supply line shortages have added to the cost of doing business, so this inflates the cost of a new home. So I think the prices will continue to increase slowly for at least another 11 to 12 Months.

[manaboutown]

Materials are currently sometimes difficult to find and mostly priced higher than they were a brief time ago. Builders must comply with tighter building codes and environmental impact issues both of which add to costs. The supply-demand situation means the market is tight. Higher interest rates are on the horizon which may add downward pressure as folks can only pay so much a month. It is a conundrum.

[Toymeister]

Continuing price increases until the mid term Congress and Senate are seated. The future will be known until 2024 then. Wall Street hates uncertainty, as already pointed out the stock market is intertwined to some degree with home prices.

[daniel200]

It has been an amazing run! When will it stop? Then what?

Anyone care to opine?

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-shiller-home-price-july-2021-130004846.html)

It’s all about affordability. With home mortgage interest rates at record lows, more people can afford to buy (and bigger and more expensive).

IF interest rates take off to 6 or 8% there will be many priced out of the mortgage market because they can’t meet the monthly mortgage payment for the home they want to purchase.

I have mixed feelings on the future of interest rates. But a return to normal rates would have a negative impact on demand.

[Michael G.]

Those lucky snow birds.
When their ready to sell, they'll make thousands on the sale of their second house.

[RICH1]

Buy a pup tent & ammo...

[JP]

Car prices are starting to decline I'm thinking houses not far behind.

[Robnlaura]

Again a lot of chatter about a pending housing crash be careful of those fully vested in keeping home prices high realtors Zillow and realtor.com I believe we are in for a moderate correction. When gas hits $5 we will really be in trouble

[TNGary]

Again a lot of chatter about a pending housing crash be careful of those fully vested in keeping home prices high realtors Zillow and realtor.com I believe we are in for a moderate correction. When gas hits $5 we will really be in trouble

Good comment, many principles have an interest in keeping the prices high: Realtors, sellers, appraisers, loan companies, just to name a few it's a stacked deck long term.

Regarding future prognosis: less QE will move rates up. Supply will increase. The developer will adjust build rate down to keep the buyers in a demand mode.
Resales available will increase. Mid priced homes will continue to price increase. Panic buying of mid priced resale will moderate. High end stuff will have a slower price increase. Buyers who bought the high dollar homes to rent and are highly leveraged will need to liquidate as they will not be able to feed the negative cash flow and will not see appreciation off-setting the negative cash flow.

[terenceanne]

Another housing crash is ahead IMO

Everything is in line with people buying homes they can't afford because of low mortgage rates, Salaries have not increased, Home valuations are at silly levels - here in the villages we have regular homes selling for $700's $800's or more - Villas at crazy numbers. We could not buy our own house at this point........

[BlueStarAirlines]

Good comment, many principles have an interest in keeping the prices high: Realtors, sellers, appraisers, loan companies, just to name a few it's a stacked deck long term.

I've been doing a lot of research and noticed housing prices are starting to drop in a handful of locations and most houses are on the market for longer than they have been the last year or so. I ran across this guy who has a pretty good series of videos. I found this one to be particularly interesting as I had read about Zillow entering the buying market, but had no idea to the extent. Its worth a watch- PROFIT from 2021 Housing Crash! (Here's How) - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTm0qV5lb7o)

It's not a matter of if but when.....

[Jeanette.U]

The house for sale on our street has had a $40k reduction recently.

[Dan2020]

It also was Carter not Reagan who battled for two years to pass legislation that gradually expanded competition in natural gas, oil, and electricity. U.S. inflation was fueled by rising energy prices between 1972 and 1979 linked to OPEC and instability in the Middle East.

[Bay Kid]

Funny money is what has been created in 7 short months. Everything will continue to go up except retirement income. Good time to buy TIPS.

[MrFlorida]

What goes up, must come down.... We've been through this before....

[Gray lady of the sea]

I couldn’t agree with you more !

[jbrown132]

Can’t wait for 10% CD’s

[Dlbonivich]

Interest rate is slated to rise 6 times over the next 2 years according to the Federal Reserve last Wednesday. That will slow things a little. As prices go up families will not be able to finance enough to buy the homes of older people who want to sell family homes and by retirement homes.

[dadoiron]

It has been an amazing run! When will it stop? Then what?

Anyone care to opine?

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-shiller-home-price-july-2021-130004846.html)
Can you say bubble?

[Kelevision]

Can you say bubble?

I’d say more of a boom than bubble. Supply supply supply, or should I say, lack thereof. Our country is like 5 million houses short, of the demand.

[Boomer]

This housing market (Whoops, I just caught a typo back there --I had typed 'hosing' market. . .Is there such a thing as a Freudian typo?) -- anyway, this housing market has an emotional component like none we have ever seen before.

Last go-round was fraught with screwy lending practices -- banks and mortgage companies having been given license to run amok with drive-by appraisals and stated-assets loans, mortgage rates at a low never seen before -- and then came the derivatives.

This time, those lending practices allegedly have been tightened, supposedly making mortgage qualification harder. This national housing market has been fast and crazy. It is creating what I believe to be an artificial sense of wealth in home equity. Can banks, and homeowners, resist HELOCs based on what I call phantom equity?

I just did a search of my own past posts. Since 2018-ish, I have thrown in an occasional mini-rant about about how I think the fact that corporations were/are spending a big bunch of that corporate tax-break money on stock buybacks is going to bite us in the azz. Stock buybacks have been creating an artificiality in the stock market -- resulting again in the psychology of phantom wealth. The old bull is tired, had been running for more than a decade -- on its own -- until the corporate tax breaks gave it more momentum than it deserved -- looks to me like it has been an old bull on steroids for a while.

Economic history tells us that the stock market and the housing market ride in tandem. We can only hope that what is coming will just be a deep breath. I personally think we need that -- just that -- but we have been living in Crazytown for years -- so who knows where we are headed.

Boomer

PS: The teetering can be felt right now. We are going to see -- already are seeing -- a scapegoating of the present. I wish more people would look at the big picture. But (sigh) a lot of people will think what they allow themselves to be told to think.

[nn0wheremann]

It has been an amazing run! When will it stop? Then what?

Anyone care to opine?

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-shiller-home-price-july-2021-130004846.html)
Think 2008. The market corrects, and seeks fiscal homeostasis with a vengeance.

[merrymini]

I’d say more of a boom than bubble. Supply supply supply, or should I say, lack thereof. Our country is like 5 million houses short, of the demand.

I would like to know where these 5 million people are now?

[manaboutown]

And Robert J. Shiller weighs in.

Home prices 'will see big declines in coming years,' expert predicts (https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/home-prices-will-see-big-declines-in-coming-years-225857861.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_11)

[pablo cruze]

I've been doing a lot of research and noticed housing prices are starting to drop in a handful of locations and most houses are on the market for longer than they have been the last year or so. I ran across this guy who has a pretty good series of videos. I found this one to be particularly interesting as I had read about Zillow entering the buying market, but had no idea to the extent. Its worth a watch- PROFIT from 2021 Housing Crash! (Here's How) - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTm0qV5lb7o)

It's not a matter of if but when.....
Thank you for sharing the link. I learned a lot from viewing the informative video. I like data driven discussions. Not only did he provide good insight regarding the market, but let us know how he came to the conclusion, so I can do likewise in the future.

Also, I learned how to filter Zillow for 'Zillow Owned' properties, that INVH is the largest real estate owner in the US, and how PUT options work.

Thinking of dismissing my current financial advisor, and start managing my equities on my own, starting with some PUT contracts for ZG and INVH. When they strike, I can use the profits to buy properties at reduced prices.

[pablo cruze]

Can’t wait for 10% CD’s
Can't wait for any appealing CD rate. I'd go 10 years for 6%.

[Stu from NYC]

I would like to know where these 5 million people are now?

Here and there.

Most likely renting

[Escape Artist]

Speaking from my own experience buying in the Villages in the spring, rapidly increasing home prices were driven by a socio-political panic situation. I wish I had bought earlier as home prices would have been lower with more availability in my price range.

[askcarl]

Buying Puts.... No.

Take a nice trip to Vegas and have more fun doing the same thing. Gambling with your $.

Carl

[Packer Fan]

Economic history tells us that the stock market and the housing market ride in tandem. We can only hope that what is coming will just be a deep breath. I personally think we need that -- just that -- but we have been living in Crazytown for years -- so who knows where we are headed.

Boomer

.

Although I disagree with a lot of your post, I am only going to point out one thing- this statement is just patently false. In the 70s, the stock market went NOWHERE for 10 years and housing prices skyrocketed ( My Dad sure loved that, since all his money was in his house) due to inflation.
Then in the crash of 2008, they both went down together. They zig an zag a lot independently of each other.

The only way they are tied together at all is through interest rates, which affect both markets.

[Packer Fan]

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.

[justjim]

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.

Nice post…:ho: A Bear Fan :bigbow:

[jdulej]

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.

Good post! I came here from California, where housing swings can be heart stopping. It is usually all about timing and not letting yourself get into a spot where you are forced to sell.
For work, I used to drive from Sacramento to Phoenix from time to time and on one drive, after the 2008 crash, drove through what looked like a wierd Nevada ghost town. Unpaved streets lined with brand new, 3-4,000 sq ft homes. All empty, many with the windows broken out. 5 years later I made the same detour and all those homes had been torn down and signs were up advertising a new housing development - crazy!
One thing I've noticed here in central Fl. The run-up seems to have been much faster and higher in TV than in the surrounding area. We now see designer homes pushing up past 1 million! TV may slow down a bit to let the other areas catch up, but I doubt it will stop or go down

[eweissenbach]

It has been an amazing run! When will it stop? Then what?

Anyone care to opine?

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-shiller-home-price-july-2021-130004846.html)
Good question and I’m glad you used the word “guess” because that is all ANYONE has. I am a former realtor and have a chartered financial consultant degree with thirty five years of financial services experience and, having said that, I have no idea how to answer your question. What I do know is I cannot today buy a home in TV, or pretty much anywhere else, at 2012 prices or even 2020 prices. I also cannot knowingly, today, buy a home at 2022, (23, 24 and on and on) prices. House prices tend to rise over time, though sometimes with temporary fallbacks. When I first began pricing houses in TV in 2009, I could have bought a lot of homes for a third the price they might sell for today. Of course there are hundreds of securities I could have purchased then that would be worth three times as much and more with a lot lower cost of ownership. Another thing I know is I am a leading baby boomer at 75, meaning the median boomer is 65 and the youngest is 55. That means there are still many millions of current and future retirees that are in the target market for The Villages. As more and more people move to TV it means more and more people who call, write, or go home and tell their friends, family, and ex coworkers how wonderful The Villages is (it seems the majority of people I meet who are relatively new residents say they came because a friend or family member invited them down and they fell in love). All that means nothing except to say, all we can deal with is today - no one knows or is guaranteed tomorrow so house prices are exactly what they are right now!

[Escape Artist]

Good post! I came here from California, where housing swings can be heart stopping. It is usually all about timing and not letting yourself get into a spot where you are forced to sell. For work, I used to drive from Sacramento to Phoenix from time to time...

It sounds like you are from my neck of the woods :coolsmiley: I sold my home located in a suburb of Sacramento in the fall of 2020. I made some profit on it but had I waited six months I really could have cleaned up.

As for predictions that things will flatten out or continue with modest growth, it all depends on what happens on a federal level. Will the Fed raise interest rates, will there be tax increases in 2022, which might include figuring in your assets and investments?

I heard the government now wants basically all income and banking transactions to be monitored and reported to the IRS. Not just the usual $10,000 plus transaction, the threshold will be lowered and might include savings, IRAs, etc. so that might scare a lot of people. They gotta pay for those multi-trillion dollar spending sprees somehow!

[frose]

gas will be 6.50 a gallon, milk 7.00 a gal, inflation @ 20%, tax rates at never before seen rate, housing will tank.. 6 months maybe 8, stock market crash and will take housing with it.. Remember 2008?? It will seem like a great time compared to what will happen now.

[tophcfa]

gas will be 6.50 a gallon, milk 7.00 a gal, inflation @ 20%, tax rates at never before seen rate, housing will tank.. 6 months maybe 8, stock market crash and will take housing with it.. Remember 2008?? It will seem like a great time compared to what will happen now.

I am very concerned about both the stock market and housing bubbles created by prolonged artificially low interest rates and other irresponsible actions taken by the Federal Reserve. I am also very concerned about both our country and it’s residents seemingly incurable addiction to unsustainable debt. Unfortunately, fiscal discipline seems to be a thing of the past and something the younger generations have never known. The unfortunate result of this will be high inflation, a substantially weaker dollar, and significant asset bubble corrections.

That being said, the predictions in the above quoted post are extremely pessimistic, especially in the stated time frame. Buckle up!

[jdulej]

gas will be 6.50 a gallon, milk 7.00 a gal, inflation @ 20%, tax rates at never before seen rate, housing will tank.. 6 months maybe 8, stock market crash and will take housing with it.. Remember 2008?? It will seem like a great time compared to what will happen now.
Not gonna happen. No way. Todays Fed is too active. I know some hope it does to make the current admin look bad but the pres really does not have the power - it’s the fed. Remember, the 3.5 trillion (over 10 years) bill being pushed is less than 1/2 the defense budget which everyone seems fine with going up every year with little to show for it

[Escape Artist]

Not gonna happen. No way. Todays Fed is too active. I know some hope it does to make the current admin look bad but the pres really does not have the power - it’s the fed. Remember, the 3.5 trillion (over 10 years) bill being pushed is less than 1/2 the defense budget which everyone seems fine with going up every year with little to show for it

It won't be the last multi-trillion bill this administration will try to advance through the legislature.

[BlueStarAirlines]

I would like to know where these 5 million people are now?

Here is a hint...its not true and is another story line to justify the bubble- 5 Million Homes are MISSING! - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4O79ExgOXg)

[jdulej]

It won't be the last multi-trillion bill this administration will try to advance through the legislature.

I don't think so. Maybe in his second term. After the current bills pass, can't use reconciliation to push things through and next year is an election year anyway, so nothing will happen except bickering.

All we will see from now until the midterms are these current bills being passed and one Supreme Court judge getting replaced. After that it depends on how the election goes

[jbrown132]

Interesting question and nobody knows. A few notes.
1. I have "skin in the game" as I have a house in Fernandina that is strickly a rental in addition to my retirement home. I get calls weekly from Realtors, and the numbers are quite attractive. The fact I am not selling is partially due to what I will state below, but partially because I don't need the money right now, and will in 5 years. Plan on living in it for 2 years before I sell it. I hate taxes.

2. This runup in prices was caused by low interest rates, high demand, and low supply. Basic econ 101. It is NOT a villages phenomenon but is going on everywhere.
3. The Villages issue is compounded by the fact 10,000 baby boomers a day are retiring, but offset by the fact the developer builds a LOT of houses.
4. Low interest rates will rise, slowing buying, but not so much in the villages, since over half the houses are cash transactions.
5. High Demand will not change - Millenials are forming families at a VERY high rate, and in TV, retirements will continue strong for the next 12-15 years or so.
6. Low Supply may change in TV if the developer ramps up, but with low availability of people this may not change much. In the rest of the country, builders are VERY wary of building. They are still at below 70% of pre 2008 levels. They also can't find workers. My opinion is the build rate won't go up much.

Throw in the fact that lenders are NOT making anywhere near the bad loans they made in the housing crisis.

So my prediction is as follows - prices will level off to more normal increases. I predict 5-7% a year in The Villages, 2-3% everywhere else. There will be no crash. Those prognosticating that are basing it on a once in a lifetime crash in 2008. We might see a one year lull in prices where there is no inflation in TV in maybe 2023. Thats the most that will happen. I am keeping that extra house because it rents really well(because many rental owners have sold), and if it goes up even 2-3%, it beats cash and bonds......
TV real estate is also a good diversifier from Stocks and Bonds.
You asked, there it is.
What happens if if inflation is up to say 6-8 percent a year an interest rates climb to the same or higher rates. It can only do one thing to the economy and house prices.

[rsmurano]

We are in an area that is booming and will continue to boom while other states will/have start coming down.
Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and other red states are seeing an influx of people that are moving out of blue states like California, NY, New Jersey, and others. Another reason we are going n good shape is that the prices of our homes are a bargain for people leaving NY and California, and when the housing market starts crashing, it will hit those states 1st. The west is already starting to see home inventories building which means it’s going to be a buyers market/lower prices.

[merrymini]

The smartest gov in the country, newsom, just signed a housing bill which allows multiple homes to be built on a single family lot. That should help the situation in ca, zoning gets thrown out the window. His thank you to the people who kept him in office.

[jdulej]

The smartest gov in the country, newsom, just signed a housing bill which allows multiple homes to be built on a single family lot. That should help the situation in ca, zoning gets thrown out the window. His thank you to the people who kept him in office.

Check your California bashing at the door and check the actual facts. California is booming. Running budget surpluses and returning tax money to the taxpayers. But, affordable housing simple does not exist near the major urban centers. Something needed to be done, and his move to impact zoning is a good first step. I don't think you'll see concrete tenements going up in the suburbs any time soon

[manaboutown]

10 US Cities Spending Big Money on New Housing Construction (https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/10-us-cities-spending-big-140012736.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_11)

New construction in the Tampa to Orlando belt is booming!

[nick demis]

It has been an amazing run! When will it stop? Then what?

Anyone care to opine?

US home price growth reaches new high for fourth consecutive month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-shiller-home-price-july-2021-130004846.html)

Are you talking about the US home prices or The Villages home prices?

[inda50]

Are you talking about the US home prices or The Villages home prices?
I came across this today. A short video and he gets to the interesting point about half way through. I think it's an interesting analysis.

[frose]

keep dreaming

[Escape Artist]

Check your California bashing at the door and check the actual facts. California is booming. Running budget surpluses and returning tax money to the taxpayers. But, affordable housing simple does not exist near the major urban centers. Something needed to be done, and his move to impact zoning is a good first step. I don't think you'll see concrete tenements going up in the suburbs any time soon

California is not "booming". It has one of the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the country. Changing zoning at a state level is not something a governor should do and if he was really serious about improving housing stock he'd reduce state regulations, taxes and fees for new construction or any type of development which are among the highest in the nation.

If you think so highly of California, why did you leave and move to Florida, of all places? You should have stayed to enjoy all the benefits and bounty the Golden State has to offer (such as clean, well-run cities!) while reveling in Newsom's glorious triumph (paid for by special interests). :ohdear:

[TimeForChange]

If builders can get the supplies they will overbuild and housing prices will go down. I spent forty years in the building supply manufacturing business and saw this happen numerous times. In 2001 this Country built almost 1.6 million new homes. Sheet rock, bricks, insulation, shingles and numerous other materials were in short supply and even on allocation to contractors. In 2008 the Country built half that many due to over supply.

[eweissenbach]

If builders can get the supplies they will overbuild and housing prices will go down. I spent forty years in the building supply manufacturing business and saw this happen numerous times. In 2001 this Country built almost 1.6 million new homes. Sheet rock, bricks, insulation, shingles and numerous other materials were in short supply and even on allocation to contractors. In 2008 the Country built half that many due to over supply.

And in 2011 The Villages sold 11% of all new homes sold in the entire country! Unique market here.

[manaboutown]

California is not "booming". It has one of the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the country. Changing zoning at a state level is not something a governor should do and if he was really serious about improving housing stock he'd reduce state regulations, taxes and fees for new construction or any type of development which are among the highest in the nation.

If you think so highly of California, why did you leave and move to Florida, of all places? You should have stayed to enjoy all the benefits and bounty the Golden State has to offer (such as clean, well-run cities!) while reveling in Newsom's glorious triumph (paid for by special interests). :ohdear:

"But Ferrigno, for all his impeccable connections, has become fed up with what he describes as the 'dramatic decline' in LA. He and wife Carla recently sold their £3 million home in Santa Monica and moved into a 7,146 sq ft mansion two hours north of LA.

Carla says: 'One morning around 7am I opened the curtains in our beautiful Santa Monica home and looking up at me from our driveway were three gang members with tattoos on their faces sitting on our retaining wall. They were cat-calling me and being vulgar. I motioned I was going to call the police and they just laughed, flicking their tongues at me and showing me their guns.'

Her husband added: 'We put the house up for sale after 40 wonderful years and moved north. We feel lucky to have made it out. Now we are in a wonderful place and very happy.'"

From: Hollywood Apocalypse: The rich and famous are fleeing in droves | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8631063/Hollywood-Apocalypse-rich-famous-fleeing-droves.html)

[Stu from NYC]

Check your California bashing at the door and check the actual facts. California is booming. Running budget surpluses and returning tax money to the taxpayers. But, affordable housing simple does not exist near the major urban centers. Something needed to be done, and his move to impact zoning is a good first step. I don't think you'll see concrete tenements going up in the suburbs any time soon

Hmmm people seem to be leaving California in droves. Why is that?

[Dana1963]

The smartest gov in the country, newsom, just signed a housing bill which allows multiple homes to be built on a single family lot. That should help the situation in ca, zoning gets thrown out the window. His thank you to the people who kept him in office.
Remember the Morse Syndicate tried the same here. Called apartments and homes south of 44 are getting closer together.

[Nick B]

Again a lot of chatter about a pending housing crash be careful of those fully vested in keeping home prices high realtors Zillow and realtor.com I believe we are in for a moderate correction. When gas hits $5 we will really be in trouble
The sooner the better too many on the road.

[Nick B]

"But Ferrigno, for all his impeccable connections, has become fed up with what he describes as the 'dramatic decline' in LA. He and wife Carla recently sold their £3 million home in Santa Monica and moved into a 7,146 sq ft mansion two hours north of LA.

Carla says: 'One morning around 7am I opened the curtains in our beautiful Santa Monica home and looking up at me from our driveway were three gang members with tattoos on their faces sitting on our retaining wall. They were cat-calling me and being vulgar. I motioned I was going to call the police and they just laughed, flicking their tongues at me and showing me their guns.'

Her husband added: 'We put the house up for sale after 40 wonderful years and moved north. We feel lucky to have made it out. Now we are in a wonderful place and very happy.'"

From: Hollywood Apocalypse: The rich and famous are fleeing in droves | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8631063/Hollywood-Apocalypse-rich-famous-fleeing-droves.html)
From the things that never happen file. Oy Vay

[manaboutown]

Surprise, surprise? 'Home prices will grow a further 16%' by end of next year: Goldman forecast (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-will-grow-a-further-16-by-end-of-next-year-goldman-forecast-203019920.html)

[RICH1]

Can’t wait for 10% CD’s
how long do you plan on living?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

up and then down then sideways for awhile, then up and then sideways for awhile, then down. .

timestamp it!

finance guy

[frose]

gas is already 3.50, groceries up 25%.. this is going to get real bad real fast.

[frose]

take off those rose colored glasses and look around.. gas 3.50, groceries up 25%, no cars at the dealers, empty shelves in the stores, back orders from amazon.. this will be very bad very soon.

[kkingston57]

Another housing crash is ahead IMO

Everything is in line with people buying homes they can't afford because of low mortgage rates, Salaries have not increased, Home valuations are at silly levels - here in the villages we have regular homes selling for $700's $800's or more - Villas at crazy numbers. We could not buy our own house at this point........

This situation is not the same as in the early 2000's when banks were not underwriting loans, not requring a down payment, not verifying employment etc. Market is going to stabilize/go down slighlty but will not crash like crash in and around 2006.

[LateBoomer]

Goldman Sachs just predicted last week a slowing of the market, but it will still grow another 16% in 2022

[manaboutown]

Investors Rush To Buy Nearly 1 In 4 Homes | ZeroHedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-rush-buy-nearly-1-4-homes)

[ThirdOfFive]

take off those rose colored glasses and look around.. gas 3.50, groceries up 25%, no cars at the dealers, empty shelves in the stores, back orders from amazon.. this will be very bad very soon.
One would hope not--but having lived through the Carter years I see some scary similarities between that time and now. Runaway inflation is a killer.

Along those lines...we are looking at investing in gold and silver bullion coins as a hedge against inflation. Can anyone recommend reputable coin dealers in The Villages? We've contacted one by Email whose website promised an answer "within 48 hours": this was a week ago and still nothing.

[Koapaka]

One would hope not--but having lived through the Carter years I see some scary similarities between that time and now. Runaway inflation is a killer.

Along those lines...we are looking at investing in gold and silver bullion coins as a hedge against inflation. Can anyone recommend reputable coin dealers in The Villages? We've contacted one by Email whose website promised an answer "within 48 hours": this was a week ago and still nothing.


Your best bet if you are serious about buying physical silver and gold would be Kitco.com. There you can order anything you want, but you will find that the premiums drive the per oz price up given the supply and demand, so it fluctuates.

[ThirdOfFive]

Your best bet if you are serious about buying physical silver and gold would be Kitco.com. There you can order anything you want, but you will find that the premiums drive the per oz price up given the supply and demand, so it fluctuates.
Thanks.

[ex34449]

No one knows the future, all just guesses. I will say this though. I just sold our home near Crystal River for a ridiculously high price. Far more than it was worth and I should have asked more. Had a contract on it within 60 minutes of it being listed.

[MrFlorida]

[QUOTE=Michael G.;2010211]Those lucky snow birds.
When their ready to sell, they'll make thousands on the sale of their second house.[/QUOTY

Yes they will make more, but also pay more, it's all relative.

[davem4616]

Buy a pup tent & ammo...


or move to San Francisco...they'll give you a free tent...and you don't even have to wear a flower in your hair if you're going there anymore

[Stu from NYC]

or move to San Francisco...they'll give you a free tent...and you don't even have to wear a flower in your hair if you're going there anymore

Will they throw in my own private outhouse?

[manaboutown]

or move to San Francisco...they'll give you a free tent...and you don't even have to wear a flower in your hair if you're going there anymore

The streets of San Francisco ain't like they used to be...

[manaboutown]

Zillow’s House Flipping Hits a Snag as the Red-Hot U.S. Housing Market Shows Signs It’s Cooling (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillow-house-flipping-hits-snag-161631387.html)

[Catalina36]

Yes the Real Estate Market has gone up crazy in the last 8 months. Now the question? Where is the Real Estate Market heading and will the prices retreat?? One thing you need to remember The Villages Real Estate Market is in a different category then most other locations. While I believe the Real Estate Market has stabilized in other areas. I believe The Villages Real Estate value will continue to rise. Remember supply and demand. It's all about, the "Baby Boomers" are Retiring and looking for a great location like The Villages to retire to. Like every "Villages homeowner" already knows. When buying a home in The Villages your not just buying a new home, Your Buying "A Life Style". No other location has what the Villages offers it's homeowners.

[Catalina36]

LOOK OUT, A half million / 500,000 are coming from Afghanistan. YIKES.

[LateBoomer]

just reported this morning - housing permits/starts tumbled in September. This makes existing stock even more valuable

[Dan2020]

LAST WEEK’S NEWS that Social Security recipients will receive a 5.9% cost-of-living adjustment for 2022 might seem like a nonevent. After all, those larger monthly checks will be fully devoured by today’s higher prices.

Or maybe not.

September’s report for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation for medical care services—a big cost for retirees—was quite tame over the past 12 months, rising less than 1%. Seniors also spend significantly less on transportation, so they’re less harmed by the past year’s 15% surge in the cost of new and used cars and trucks, as well as motor vehicle parts.

On the downside, younger retirees—or, at least, those willing to travel during the pandemic—have likely felt the brunt of the 18% jump in the cost of “lodging away from home.” One plus for travelers: A strong U.S. dollar has made overseas excursions less pricey. Those in their 60s usually travel more, while those ages 75 and up tend to spend a higher amount on health care.

Next year may be kinder to all consumers. According to Bank of America analysts, core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy items—will rise 4.3% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022. The Federal Reserve, which looks at a somewhat different inflation measure, expects core inflation to be even lower.

What does all this mean? Arguably, those receiving Social Security checks are getting a pretty good deal. They’re receiving a 5.9% raise, while their cost of living appears to be climbing at a slower rate.

Coming Out Ahead - HumbleDollar (https://humbledollar.com/2021/10/coming-out-ahead/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-alert-email-wednesday)

[manaboutown]

US home construction declines 1.6% in September | FOX 56 Lexington (https://foxlexington.com/ap-feeds/ap-business/us-home-construction-declines-1-6-in-september/)

Homebuilding slows as materials shortages linger | Fox Business (https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-starts-building-permits-september-2021?cmpid=fb_fbn&fbclid=IwAR0oNFKJnsvFOLNDt3h2wxUWV8Kw4xDXw1UhkYNLW Epm-B3S9vT8TprJ3Hw)

[manaboutown]

US existing home sales rebound in September, rise 7% (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-september-2021-140035537.html)

[manaboutown]

'Home prices will grow a further 16%' by end of next year: Goldman forecast (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-will-grow-a-further-16-by-end-of-next-year-goldman-forecast-203019920.html?ncid=dcm_23910565_309105303_4735534 14_136036780)

[Normal]

The FED has to correct for inflationary pressure with lending rates; that and printing money are the only tools they have. When interest rates are raised, after Yellen gets out of the way, purchases and purchasers will be pressured to close and then slow. That said, home prices won’t necessarily drop because of the pressure and because of the supply chain issues created. Labor rates for new construction, lack of availability, lack of building supplies and demand will make prices slowly increase. The stock market won’t necessarily have much of a say I afraid. What you see now, will only go higher. History only seems to repeat itself. House prices never really declined after the 70’s either.