“In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

[Boomer]

Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.

[ThirdOfFive]

Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.
Stomach? I'd say a few inches lower than the stomach.

There's a pair of 'em.

[dewilson58]

Up & Down

[Boomer]

Stomach? I'd say a few inches lower than the stomach.

There's a pair of 'em.

I knew — I just knew — some guy would say that, and I knew it would not take long. . .

Hey. . .Maybe I am better at predicting than I thought. :)

Boomer

[ThirdOfFive]

Some things are like that.

In Minnesota, any time from November to April, you can expect to hear "cold enough for ya?" at least five times a day.

[Boomer]

Some things are like that.

In Minnesota, any time from November to April, you can expect to hear "cold enough for ya?" at least five times a day.


Dontcha know. :)

Colloquial Boomer

[CoachKandSportsguy]

:boxing2:

you have to call the pocket shots in pool. . .

I knew — I just knew — some guy would say that, and I knew it would not take long. . .

Hey. . .Maybe I am better at predicting than I thought. :)

Boomer

Anytime i tried to tell my dad something new, shock him, he would reply "I thought that might be true." but would never say his thoughts out loud, or in any conversation with me before this, and he said it so often, that i labelled it as a "i am always right" auto-response. He of course wouldn't consider anything i said as potentially true when it disagreed with him, until he heard it on TV, only the TV was truth

:ohdear: :ohdear:

but good question, and then you need to save to see who is lucky. . :popcorn:

and always better lucky than good!

And lottery tickets is a strategy. . .

[tophcfa]

Up & Down

When your young there is plenty of time to wait for the roller coaster to climb back up after the big dip down.

[sail33or]

Well, logically inflation will reach a point a majority of folks will have to limit what they buy. Since all corporations' profits are based on the amount of things/services people buy, you would logically conclude that stocks will go down.

Right now stocks are benefiting from free money(no interest) to expand, forcing people to buy stocks because CD's pay zero interest, reaping the profits of inflation and huge government paydays for some businesses.

But logically stock's should go down and we all know the rich get out first and you are left with the empty bag. Just saying.

[coralway]

if you’re a day trader, you should be doing very well. This economy is exploding

[dewilson58]

But logically stock's should go down and we all know the rich get out first and you are left with the empty bag. Just saying.

With your "logic", logically you are out and you are not holding the bag.

:ho:

[manaboutown]

I read the first two books Peter Lynch wrote. He really worked hard at investing and of course was incredibly successful with the Magellan fund.

My first stock purchase was in 1959 at age 17. I remember the Nifty Fifty Nifty Fifty - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nifty_Fifty)

and the mostly bull market until the mid seventies at which time it seriously tanked and did not recover for years.

Warren Buffett gave a famous speech at a July 1999 Sun Valley get together of the superrich one year where he pointed out that the Dow on 12/31/64 was 874.12; on 12/31/81 it was 875. During this time the sales of the Fortune 500 companies had grown fivefold yet during the 17 years the Dow had gone nowhere.

In the past from time to time I ignored my gut telling me "no, no, no" but charged ahead anyway to make a devastatingly poor decision. For the most part I have learned from those costly actions to listen to my gut which I believe is really the whole of my subconscious brain and my higher power.

[dewilson58]

When your young there is plenty of time to wait for the roller coaster to climb back up after the big dip down.

Understand, at a certain age (different for everyone).

But I haven't seen a down Market I haven't been able to drive thru & out the other side and not be well ahead of any conservative investing model or thoughts.


:MOJE_whot:

[Velvet]

I knew — I just knew — some guy would say that, and I knew it would not take long. . .

Hey. . .Maybe I am better at predicting than I thought. :)

Boomer

Unless he is one of Dr Now’s 600 lb client, then he truly has two hanging stomachs.

My observation, market seems to swing with Covid fear and Covid waves. One can be slightly ahead by observing “canary” countries reaction. Other variables too, but lately it seems very Covid sensitive.

[justjim]

My simple plan for 2022: Stay diversified, stay calm and expect the unexpected in 2022. If health holds, play as much golf as able. Fore!

[Boomer]

I read the first two books Peter Lynch wrote. He really worked hard at investing and of course was incredibly successful with the Magellan fund.

My first stock purchase was in 1959 at age 17. I remember the Nifty Fifty Nifty Fifty - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nifty_Fifty)

and the mostly bull market until the mid seventies at which time it seriously tanked and did not recover for years.

Warren Buffett gave a famous speech at a July 1999 Sun Valley get together of the superrich one year where he pointed out that the Dow on 12/31/64 was 874.12; on 12/31/81 it was 875. During this time the sales of the Fortune 500 companies had grown fivefold yet during the 17 years the Dow had gone nowhere.

In the past from time to time I ignored my gut telling me "no, no, no" but charged ahead anyway to make a devastatingly poor decision. For the most part I have learned from those costly actions to listen to my gut which I believe is really the whole of my subconscious brain and my higher power.


And boring, old-fashioned dividend investors slept right through it.

I assume Buffett had been buying, buying, buying throughout that time and reinvesting dividends from those steady, old workhorses he was holding.

(Yes. I know that Berkshire's dividends are reinvested not paid out to investors.)

Boomer

[jimbomaybe]

I read the first two books Peter Lynch wrote. He really worked hard at investing and of course was incredibly successful with the Magellan fund.

My first stock purchase was in 1959 at age 17. I remember the Nifty Fifty Nifty Fifty - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nifty_Fifty)

and the mostly bull market until the mid seventies at which time it seriously tanked and did not recover for years.

Warren Buffett gave a famous speech at a July 1999 Sun Valley get together of the superrich one year where he pointed out that the Dow on 12/31/64 was 874.12; on 12/31/81 it was 875. During this time the sales of the Fortune 500 companies had grown fivefold yet during the 17 years the Dow had gone nowhere.

In the past from time to time I ignored my gut telling me "no, no, no" but charged ahead anyway to make a devastatingly poor decision. For the most part I have learned from those costly actions to listen to my gut which I believe is really the whole of my subconscious brain and my higher power.
My first purchase was many decades ago , no internet, talked to as many people who seemed and probably did know more than me (easy to do even today!) ended up buying TRW, I did OK,, broker talked me out of Berkshire Hathaway,, oh well

[Chi-Town]

Since November 2020 the Dow is up 10,000 and the S&P 1000. May be time to take some profits and see how 2022 is going. Remember. You don't make money until you sell.

[manaboutown]

Since November 2020 the Dow is up 10,000 and the S&P 1000. May be time to take some profits and see how 2022 is going. Remember. You don't make money until you sell.

and you don't pay taxes on the gain until you sell!

[Tom52]

Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.

Up or down I will accept either, totally without panic if it becomes a down year. We have already won the game.

Just call me Iron Belly

[rsmurano]

I've been a person who buys good stuff and leaves it alone, never rebalance just to rebalance, sold because of other issues. Never sold a share during the 2007/2008 depression, never sold a share during 2020 because you knew it will be a "v" shaped recovery. Now, I'm thinking of selling almost everything because of the environment. Scares of people wanting to tax unrealized gains even in your IRA accounts. Now I think, I don't need to make another dime in the market to live comfortably so why take a big chance.

[M2inOR]

Up & Down

The best market prediction I recall is the old ad featuring Eliot Janeway...

Announcer: Mr Janeway, is the market headed up or down?

Janeway: Yes, but not right away.

[Gunny2403]

At 72 I have implemented a disinvesting plan that started three years ago. Expect to totally be out of the market in 10 years. Mix moved to 1.0 or lower Beta.

[Foxmd]

Peter Lynch's always said buy stocks that you know from your daily life. He put Fidelity investments on the map with his stellar performance for Magellan fund. The other great investor was Bob Farrell of Merrill Lynch.

[jbrown132]

Maybe it’s just me but I feel 2022 has the potential for being a very bad year in the market. There is no doubt the Fed is going to start raising interest rates. You have Russia sitting on the border of the Ukraine waiting to invade. There is a possibility that China will invade Taiwan after the Winter Olympics, and just a lot of unrest in the world. If gas prices continue to rise everything you continue to go up in price and who knows we’re Covid is heading. So to me there is two much uncertainty in the world to be aggressive in the markets. Really don’t know what to do about investments.

[dewilson58]

Up & Down

Stock Market Crash Coming? 7 Wall Street Pros Make Their Predictions (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stock-market-crash-coming-7-wall-street-pros-make-their-predictions/ar-AASeuML?cvid=310a2288c2e84dc0dacf5acefa52e9f0&ocid=winp1taskbar)

[rsmurano]

You can’t predict the market but my gut feeling is that it’s different today than the past. I’m a vanguard fan and invest in mostly index funds the last 20 years. I’ve been selling off my taxable accounts for the last few years to keep my bucket system in tact in good times and bad. Normally I live off dividends and don’t have to sell any shares when the market is bad.
If you read last months AARP newsletter, they interviewed Jim Cramer who has always been bullish on stocks. He sold off more than half his portfolio for cash and what’s left is in index funds. This is what I wanted to do this past year and in this climate, it will happen this coming qtr

[Boomer]

Stock Market Crash Coming? 7 Wall Street Pros Make Their Predictions (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stock-market-crash-coming-7-wall-street-pros-make-their-predictions/ar-AASeuML?cvid=310a2288c2e84dc0dacf5acefa52e9f0&ocid=winp1taskbar)




Thank you for that link, dewilson58. I read Charlie Munger’s part first and will get to the rest later.

Charlie agrees with me. This is the craziest time we have seen since the dotcom era. . .

I still have flashbacks of my young arrogance in those days. I thought those dotcom stocks were amazing. One of my funds returned 100% very quickly. Did I get out? Oh, nooooo. I just kept on bubble-dancing. Duh. It is true what they say about experience being the best teacher.

(At least I had not bet the farm. Only the butter and egg money.)

All the buzz about cryptocurrency has that dotcom feel for me. Charlie does not like it either. I guess it is that unreal feel that makes some of us — who have seen a lot of markets — uninterested in crypto.

Meanwhile, I think PG is hitting its all-time high today. I keep wondering why PG is not splitting. PG, up or down, longtime holders probably are not going anywhere because the check really has been in the mail, every quarter, since PG went public in 1890 — and the dividend has been increased for 65 consecutive years. Of course, there are far more exciting stocks when it comes to growth. But the psychology of a split could let new dividend investors tiptoe in.

Boomer Whipple

[nn0wheremann]

Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

[jimjamuser]

Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.
One expert predicts down at some point and then a HUGE rise like in the S+P to 6,000. Pretty bold prediction!

[Gac57]

I've only been investing in individual stocks for 3 years and I'm not very good at it. Pretty aggressive investments.

[manaboutown]

Years ago I read "The Money Masters" and some sequels by John Train. I learned a lot. Each one seemed to have a different approach.

"The Quants" amazed me. Amazon.com (https://www.amazon.com/Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Street-Destroyed/dp/0307453383)

[jimjamuser]

That is true. Inflation could possibly come down because the product slow down at the ports and from lack of drivers becomes more efficient, which causes prices to drop.

[jimjamuser]

if you’re a day trader, you should be doing very well. This economy is exploding
Many things are exploding.

[jimjamuser]

Unless he is one of Dr Now’s 600 lb client, then he truly has two hanging stomachs.

My observation, market seems to swing with Covid fear and Covid waves. One can be slightly ahead by observing “canary” countries reaction. Other variables too, but lately it seems very Covid sensitive.
Russia on the border of The Ukraine could heat up and spook the market.

[kkingston57]

My self described conservative(not political) broker has a motto. He likes to sleep at night. He likes preferred stocks which pay out 5-7% a year.

[DAVES]

Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.

I do hold stocks. Truth because of government actions it is a house of cards. Gone are pensions replaced by 401Ks, 403b kind of stuff. Heck if you have a pension, you may be shocked to realize the money to pay you is invested in the stock market. It is sort of like the 1920;s everyone is in the stock market whether it know it or not. The 1920s prosperity, ended with the incomprehensible misery of the 1930's depression. We must believe it will not happen. People of the 1920's knew the stock market only goes up.
History shows they were wrong. Lose the farm? The farm was your family roots. It was all you knew, it was how you fed your family.

Safe place to put your money. In the past you would build a treasury bond ladder. Truly simple bonds maturing at different times. You would use treasuries-zero risk, they were backed by gold or silver and they would pay roughly 2% more than the rate of inflation.
Today, the cpi, consume price index, is 7%.a ten year treasury is paying 1.7%. You have to pay that 7% with after tax money so you need 9% or more to pay that 7% inflation. Social Security gave you/us a roughly 5% raise. It is historically large. Only problem is it is not enough to pay the inflated costs . The stock market IS NOT A SAFE PLACE but due to inflation you have no choice but to swim with the sharks and hope they do not realize they are looking to feed on you.

[Boomer]

The Villages Investment Education Club will meet Thursday, 1/27, 3:00, at Sea Breeze. This meeting will be a dividend discussion.

Boomer

[sail33or]

Well, I am going to help you guys out but I know there are less than smart among you.

At our age we should be 100% in CD's and live happily ever after. But as you know, the Government has made interest rates .0001 percent.

We are in unprecedented times. The old rules do not apply. We are so deep in debt, mathematically it can never be repaid.

There is a Woke War on Oil. Logically (for you intelligent folks) this means a squeeze on the very thing all things depend. It will go up and up and up. No matter what. The world must have it. Buy Exxon and consider it a CD.

[Stu from NYC]

Well, logically inflation will reach a point a majority of folks will have to limit what they buy. Since all corporations' profits are based on the amount of things/services people buy, you would logically conclude that stocks will go down.

Right now stocks are benefiting from free money(no interest) to expand, forcing people to buy stocks because CD's pay zero interest, reaping the profits of inflation and huge government paydays for some businesses.

But logically stock's should go down and we all know the rich get out first and you are left with the empty bag. Just saying.

Have to disagree with your last sentence. Stock market goes up and goes down but long run it has gone up. Just have to stay the course. Too many people get out when it goes down and never go back in until it is up a bunch.

Timing the market does not work.

[Stu from NYC]

Well, I am going to help you guys out but I know there are less than smart among you.

At our age we should be 100% in CD's and live happily ever after. But as you know, the Government has made interest rates .0001 percent.

We are in unprecedented times. The old rules do not apply. We are so deep in debt, mathematically it can never be repaid.

There is a Woke War on Oil. Logically (for you intelligent folks) this means a squeeze on the very thing all things depend. It will go up and up and up. No matter what. The world must have it. Buy Exxon and consider it a CD.

Conservatism is ok but 100% in CD's is prescription for most people running out of money.

[Koapaka]

Well, I am going to help you guys out but I know there are less than smart among you.

At our age we should be 100% in CD's and live happily ever after. But as you know, the Government has made interest rates .0001 percent.

We are in unprecedented times. The old rules do not apply. We are so deep in debt, mathematically it can never be repaid.

There is a Woke War on Oil. Logically (for you intelligent folks) this means a squeeze on the very thing all things depend. It will go up and up and up. No matter what. The world must have it. Buy Exxon and consider it a CD.

Spot on! We are heavily investing in oil, nickel and copper. All 3 play into energy needs for both electric and standard transportation requirements. The US and several other countries seem to be all in on the electric vehicle goals (demands?) based on "global warming", but the rest of the world will continue to demand oil to keep moving. Anyone who believes for a moment India and Africa are putting electric charging station needs at the top of their wish list is seriously delusional. So 2-4% of the world will force electric on those they can, while the other 90+ precent of the world struggle to find a gallon of gas to keep their world moving. The copper and nickel are both required for all these batteries that will be required should this all electric dream ever see the light of day (and I have serious doubts about that, but that is a different conversation) .

From Jan 2016 to 18 Jan 2022 the S&P is up 147%, while bitcoin is up 12,438%. Yes, this recent correction ("lost" 20% on paper) was painful to watch, but still WAY ahead. In fact, considered this correction a "fire sale" moment and bought more.

I am a HODLer with crypto investments, so all my gains/losses have been on paper only. These will be left to our grandkids (along with the lesson of investing well) hopefully.

I guess there are those that are comfortable clinging to the old way of doing things, but we have done far better in investing diversification than we would ever have seen sticking to the stock market and conventional investing alone.

We owned rental properties for a time as investments, but very grateful to have divested of them before the "COVID non-eviction curse" (pure luck on our part).

Funny, our crypto education and adventures started out as a form of entertainment fun & learning about "that new fang dangled stuff". Has paid us better returns than the investments we pay someone to help us manage. Go figure.


I just laugh when everyone mentions tulips about Bitcoin. These are the exact same people that continue to invest in the USD believing it is backed by something tangible, while believing cryptos are "different". NEWS FLASH, that all ended when Nixon took the USD off of the gold standard in the 70's.

When the US Gov can no longer pump money into T-Bills, you will find out just how incorrect that assumption is.

Unfortunately, I think we are all going to be seeing that s#&t show play out sooner than expected. Thanks Brandon.

How any of us retired and on fixed incomes fare when the dust settles is anyone's guess.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Well, FYI for dividend stocks, dividends paid out of increased debt versus cash from operations is not a sustainable mgmt decision. ie, see GE, General Electric which did just that. Only invest in companies with dividends from cash flow from operations, that's not the earnings per share, the answer is on the cash flow statement.

Market timing does work, but its not for everyone because you have to reprogram your lizard brain, the linear extrapolation part which humans have built into their survival reactions. . . Trust me, I had to go through that the hard way, which most traders and market timers do. Cost me personally 1/2 Million . . Market timing long term trends, ie multi year trends, is the way to go. This January was very profitable for me on the short side, day trading, as there are short term signals embedded in options stats, option greeks and other market data points which can signal certain movements. . . its not easy, its very hard to do consistently, but keep the trade sizes below the risk of ruin, and practice the skill and one can learn it. There is no educational course to qualify anyone, as trading is all a learned skill because you have to retain your brain's normal survival skills that fear is good and greed is bad. FYI, SP500 fair market value, is about 3000 to 3500, depending upon earnings with normal non pandemic expenses ratios, which i will then put my 401K from all cash bonds back into stocks, which i pulled out of last August.

Inflation is an imbalance of supply and demand, like a unicycle, the seat moves and the wheel moves. Only when they are in perfect balance does inflation not move. . . demand is the seat, supply is the wheel. . the problem with most TV aged inhabitants is that they associate inflation with the 1970's inflation spiral. increasing inflation from 2% to 5% is not an inflation spiral, due to fed actions and temporary supply chain disruptions. Both can be reversed

However, the inflation engine right now which will be with us for awhile is labor inflation. two long term effects: shrinking human population, even here in the US, and the job/education imbalance between blue collar and office jobs. Technology is displacing human jobs, I have done it personally with programming, taking a 4-6 hour manual job and replacing it with 15 minute programming and key strokes, to overnight automation coding. The lack of specialized manual labor and a shrinking labor supply will persist, and keep an inflation floor. . . the hidden effect is that fewer middle class white collar consumers will mean that maintaining current corporate growth rates will require hire retail prices. . . so something has to give in awhile. .

[rustyp]

Well, FYI for dividend stocks, dividends paid out of increased debt versus cash from operations is not a sustainable mgmt decision. ie, see GE, General Electric which did just that. Only invest in companies with dividends from cash flow from operations, that's not the earnings per share, the answer is on the cash flow statement.

Market timing does work, but its not for everyone because you have to reprogram your lizard brain, the linear extrapolation part which humans have built into their survival reactions. . . Trust me, I had to go through that the hard way, which most traders and market timers do. Cost me personally 1/2 Million . . Market timing long term trends, ie multi year trends, is the way to go. This January was very profitable for me on the short side, day trading, as there are short term signals embedded in options stats, option greeks and other market data points which can signal certain movements. . . its not easy, its very hard to do consistently, but keep the trade sizes below the risk of ruin, and practice the skill and one can learn it. There is no educational course to qualify anyone, as trading is all a learned skill because you have to retain your brain's normal survival skills that fear is good and greed is bad. FYI, SP500 fair market value, is about 3000 to 3500, depending upon earnings with normal non pandemic expenses ratios, which i will then put my 401K from all cash bonds back into stocks, which i pulled out of last August.

Inflation is an imbalance of supply and demand, like a unicycle, the seat moves and the wheel moves. Only when they are in perfect balance does inflation not move. . . demand is the seat, supply is the wheel. . the problem with most TV aged inhabitants is that they associate inflation with the 1970's inflation spiral. increasing inflation from 2% to 5% is not an inflation spiral, due to fed actions and temporary supply chain disruptions. Both can be reversed

However, the inflation engine right now which will be with us for awhile is labor inflation. two long term effects: shrinking human population, even here in the US, and the job/education imbalance between blue collar and office jobs. Technology is displacing human jobs, I have done it personally with programming, taking a 4-6 hour manual job and replacing it with 15 minute programming and key strokes, to overnight automation coding. The lack of specialized manual labor and a shrinking labor supply will persist, and keep an inflation floor. . . the hidden effect is that fewer middle class white collar consumers will mean that maintaining current corporate growth rates will require hire retail prices. . . so something has to give in awhile. .


You seem quite knowledgeably in finance. Are you presently selling financial instruments? In the state of Florida ? If you are selling what are your credentials ? Education, licenses, fiduciary, specialties. etc.

[PugMom]

With your "logic", logically you are out and you are not holding the bag.

:ho:

i agree. you MUST sit & wait it out. i know it gets tougher every morning when that bell rings, @ least the last week or 2, but as a wise member here uses on their tagline--this too, shall pass. i'm hanging onto my stock no matter what.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

FYI, passive investments doesn't scale, and when attempted, such as now, will cause increased volatility by reducing trading float. . same demand, cut the supply in half, prices get more volatile based upon active management demand/supply valuations. . . So investing and trading doesn't scale forever, is non linear, has physical and virtual limits, for normal human survival brains, is counter intuitive. . . makes it a very difficult game to win [b]consistently[b/], but you don't have to win, you just have to survive and avoid the pitfalls.

The first key is that due to survivorship bias, the market has an inherent growth bias, which is from bottom left to top right.
The second key is that the daily market goes up 70% of the time from buying, limited to daily dollars
the daily market goes down 30% of the time, from lack of buying at prior prices. . . unlimited downside potential

if the down moves are 2-3X percentage of the up moves. . it pays to just avoid or profit from the down days. . . so identifying those days and weeks are the key to survival and consistent growth.

simple. . right?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

You seem quite knowledgeably in finance. Are you presently selling financial instruments? In the state of Florida ? If you are selling what are your credentials ? Education, licenses, fiduciary, specialties. etc.

When you see me selling something, please turn me in. and I have answered this question before. . . Typing that I did something is not selling something, its a statement of historical fact. Telling you that I am doing something, is not selling anything. now I know who the google lawyer is . .

Corporate finance professional 30 years , operational BS and 8 years petroleum operational experience. MBA in finance, have worked valuing companies to buy and sell at a holding company, buying and selling financial companies. Have published a market forecasting article, and have traded options and stocks for 40 years . . with trading and investing experience in more than equities.

you don't need a license to understand the market, you don't need a license to type about markets, otherwise the investment club would be in violation as well.

And i took my Linkedin profile down since the next two years is my last rodeo, and workign in finance in critical national infrastructure makes me a russian or otherwise hacking and phishing target. . have seen it, I will attend the investment club when i retire in TV/ / so you are warned, and please assemble your legal team to monitor whatever I say or do. . . just be sure to pay for their lunch to make it worthwhile

[rustyp]

When you see me selling something, please turn me in. and I have answered this question before. . . Typing that I did something is not selling something, its a statement of historical fact. Telling you that I am doing something, is not selling anything. now I know who the google lawyer is . .

Corporate finance professional 30 years , operational BS and 8 years petroleum operational experience. MBA in finance, have worked valuing companies to buy and sell at a holding company, buying and selling financial companies. Have published a market forecasting article, and have traded options and stocks for 40 years . . with trading and investing experience in more than equities.

you don't need a license to understand the market, you don't need a license to type about markets, otherwise the investment club would be in violation as well.

And i took my Linkedin profile down since the next two years is my last rodeo, and workign in finance in critical national infrastructure makes me a russian or otherwise hacking and phishing target. . have seen it, I will attend the investment club when i retire in TV/ / so you are warned, and please assemble your legal team to monitor whatever I say or do. . . just be sure to pay for their lunch to make it worthwhile

Thank you. Your financial advice seems very sound and backed by experience. If you were a professional in the business I was interested in being a potential client. Sorry I did not see your disclosure of not selling financial instruments or services. I am very cautious about taking financial advice from amateurs (overwhelming the majority claim they are winners) or advisors that represent a certain type of instrument. Now I know your not a professional advisor but simply a successful amateur I can continue my search for a professional with accountability and integrity including not measuring their success from market lows - it's like snipe hunting.

[davem4616]

during a routine physical exam decades ago, my primary care guy and I started talking about investing...he had an interesting observation

'Leaving all my money in the stock market feels like putting it on a table in Vegas'

there was a memo that went out about diversification a few years back

There's lots of advice out there, best I've heard is develop a plan, and stick with it

[MrFlorida]

We call it " Wall Street Roulette"

[tophcfa]

Well, FYI for dividend stocks, dividends paid out of increased debt versus cash from operations is not a sustainable mgmt decision. ie, see GE, General Electric which did just that. Only invest in companies with dividends from cash flow from operations, that's not the earnings per share, the answer is on the cash flow statement.

Market timing does work, but its not for everyone because you have to reprogram your lizard brain, the linear extrapolation part which humans have built into their survival reactions. . . Trust me, I had to go through that the hard way, which most traders and market timers do. Cost me personally 1/2 Million . . Market timing long term trends, ie multi year trends, is the way to go. This January was very profitable for me on the short side, day trading, as there are short term signals embedded in options stats, option greeks and other market data points which can signal certain movements. . . its not easy, its very hard to do consistently, but keep the trade sizes below the risk of ruin, and practice the skill and one can learn it. There is no educational course to qualify anyone, as trading is all a learned skill because you have to retain your brain's normal survival skills that fear is good and greed is bad. FYI, SP500 fair market value, is about 3000 to 3500, depending upon earnings with normal non pandemic expenses ratios, which i will then put my 401K from all cash bonds back into stocks, which i pulled out of last August.

Inflation is an imbalance of supply and demand, like a unicycle, the seat moves and the wheel moves. Only when they are in perfect balance does inflation not move. . . demand is the seat, supply is the wheel. . the problem with most TV aged inhabitants is that they associate inflation with the 1970's inflation spiral. increasing inflation from 2% to 5% is not an inflation spiral, due to fed actions and temporary supply chain disruptions. Both can be reversed

However, the inflation engine right now which will be with us for awhile is labor inflation. two long term effects: shrinking human population, even here in the US, and the job/education imbalance between blue collar and office jobs. Technology is displacing human jobs, I have done it personally with programming, taking a 4-6 hour manual job and replacing it with 15 minute programming and key strokes, to overnight automation coding. The lack of specialized manual labor and a shrinking labor supply will persist, and keep an inflation floor. . . the hidden effect is that fewer middle class white collar consumers will mean that maintaining current corporate growth rates will require hire retail prices. . . so something has to give in awhile. .

Three thoughts on the above. First, it’s nice to see someone still doing detailed fundamental analysis (tearing apart a companies income statement, balance sheet, and sources and uses of funds) to identify exactly what sources of funds are being used to pay dividends. Second, your inflation argument is mostly correct, but is missing one key component. When looking at supply and demand, one must consider money supply into the demand equation for goods and services. The irresponsible actions of the Federal reserve, since the recovery of the housing market bubble burst in 2007/2008, of non stop pumping trillions of new dollars into the money supply (termed quantitative easing) has dramatically increased the money supply to unprecedented and dangerous levels. Those actions created so much more money supply, all chasing the same goods and services, that hyper inflation was eventually inevitable regardless of shortages in supply chains or labor. Think of your unicycle example, the circumference of the wheel of the cycle (money supply) has been increased dramatically, so every pedal covers much more ground (translated into everything costs more). Third, you remind me of me when I was still working. By that, I mean work has you trapped not being able to schedule your free time to be outdoors getting exercise all day. Your channeling all the time work has you trapped by a computer into analysis and trading. I get it, been there and done that, and extremely glad those days are over. Now that my schedule is mine, and not dictated by an employer, I put our savings in index funds and forget about them. Now I can use the time to figure out how to squeeze in exercising the dog, working on the yard, swimming laps, golfing, a bike ride, and doing some weight training every day. Dude, you need to retire, it’s sooooooooo liberating : )

[dewilson58]

during a routine physical exam decades ago, my primary care guy and I started talking about investing...he had an interesting observation

'Leaving all my money in the stock market feels like putting it on a table in Vegas'



Hopefully he is better his pointer finger than investment philosophy.