Positivity Rate

[bob47]

Can somebody explain the meaning and significance of "positivity rate"? Is the the percent of people tested during some specific time period who have Covid? Is it the percent of people who ever had Covid? Is it something else?

The real question is, how does it relate to the percent of the population who at this instant in time have an active case of Covid? It seems to me that's the important thing to know.

[dewilson58]

Google is your friend.

[bob47]

Google is your friend.

According to various sources on Google, there is more than one way to calculate positivity rate. And there is no reference as to how it predicts what percent of the population has an active case of Covid. Not everyone with Covid gets themselves tested. Some people without Covid get tested more than once. And it matters whether that rate is reporting for one day or a rolling average for several days.

Maybe an MD can weigh in on this.

[Bogie Shooter]

And when we know……..then what do we do?
Kind of like chasing rainbows………….."

[dewilson58]

According to various sources on Google, there is more than one way to calculate positivity rate. And there is no reference as to how it predicts what percent of the population has an active case of Covid. Not everyone with Covid gets themselves tested. Some people without Covid get tested more than once. And it matters whether that rate is reporting for one day or a rolling average for several days.

It's a rate............historical rate, no prediction. :ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

Go to the CDC site and educate yourself............once accomplished, then what?? :icon_wink:

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Can somebody explain the meaning and significance of "positivity rate"? Is the the percent of people tested during some specific time period who have Covid? Is it the percent of people who ever had Covid? Is it something else?

The real question is, how does it relate to the percent of the population who at this instant in time have an active case of Covid? It seems to me that's the important thing to know.

Why do you think that some random old retired doctor on a community forum will know more about "positivity rate" than the currently employed specialists who update the masses on the CDC website?

[billethkid]

None of the reported rates address the issue of the same individual with multiple tests reporting positive results.

For example someone who has tested positive and retests to see if still positive. Hence one person generates multiple infections......when it is not the case....inflating infections, infection rates, positivity rates, new cases, etc.......

[JMintzer]

It's a rate............historical rate, no prediction. :ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

You spelled "hysterical" wrong... :1rotfl:

[dewilson58]

Capiche?

Not sure why you are nasty, but let me help you anyway.

The positivity rate is just a relationship of how many are positive out of those tested.

Nothing to do with the entire population.

Hope your day improves.

[dewilson58]

Why do you think that some random old retired doctor on a community forum will know more about "positivity rate" than the currently employed specialists who update the masses on the CDC website?

Old Bob jus doesn't get it.
It's just a rate based on tests given.
A Positivity Rate as nothing to do with the total population.

It's like asking why he can't get mustard out of a catsup bottle.

:shrug:

[golfing eagles]

Why do you think that some random old retired doctor on a community forum will know more about "positivity rate" than the currently employed specialists who update the masses on the CDC website?

Well..........you'd be surprised:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[JMintzer]

Well..........you'd be surprised:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

I'd never consider you to be "random"... :1rotfl:

[Luggage]

Our national expert dr. Fauci as flip-flopped many many times so how can you trust a national expert. What the op was asking was is a valid question.

Most people will tell you it's the percentage of people that have been tested in a certain time. That are positive in other words they have certain symptoms of The Big C or it's just a regular cold it's rather a meaningless statistic that governments love to gather. In my mind I would much rather know how full the hospitals are and when will monoclonal treatments be effective against the new or various variance as well as when we will get a shot created 4 future variants

[Waltdisney4life]

Oh yes the old are the numbers true? good luck on this one guys it’s been debated for the past 2 1/2 years! I no longer care!!!

[nick demis]

It's a rate............historical rate, no prediction. :ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

Go to the CDC site and educate yourself............once accomplished, then what?? :icon_wink:

"Go to the CDC site and EDUCATE yourself"? Is that a joke?

[nick demis]

Why do you think that some random old retired doctor on a community forum will know more about "positivity rate" than the currently employed specialists who update the masses on the CDC website?

Because the CDC has been proven to be nothing but a political lobbying group. The average high school grad probably has more expertise that the CDC.

[virtualcynthia]

Positivity rate shows a trend so that communities can plan resources—hospitals, staff, testing sites, vaccination sites. It’s like testing waste water to determine which communities might have more COVID. Like positivity rate, a snapshot of the number at any given point can be inaccurate if people go to the bathroom more in a your community.

[lindaelane]

Normally, it is the percent positive out of all who tested.

It bears no relationship to the positivity of the general population. If the "scare factor" was high, a higher number of people will test than normal, tbus a higher percen tof those who are not actually positive. (e.g., testing with any light sniffle, or even less) If "low", the opposite. We can't measure "scare factor" nor the percent of people who came in due to excess fear.

Other factors effect "who tests". Government may start requiring testing for participation in certain things, e.g., travel, and percent participating and thus needing a test would vary.

There is actually, usually, some relationship between the percent positive in testing and the spread of Covid in a population. But the variation is so huge that percent positive cannot give you a good estimate of Covid spread. The exception: if percent positive is very low or very high, these are indications that concern should be lower or higher, respectively, (since again, there is some relationship between testing positives and positives in a population, though it is far from exact.)

An example: Country (or county, etc) A could have 10 percent positive tests. County (or county) B could have 20 percent positive tests. But their Covid rates could be the same. It was just that fewer people tested in Country B, and those coming in tended to be sicker and have Covid more often. But if Country (or county) C has 90 percent positive tests, it's safe to assume Covid is more rampant there than in Counties A or B, though you can't say exactly how much more rampant.

[golfing eagles]

It's a rate
Go to the CDC site and educate yourself

yep
92431

[Packer Fan]

Its the percent of the tests given that are positive. It is just another statistic to keep you scared. Anyone paying attention knows that you would rather have Covid now than the Flu. Have several employees out with Covid and the flu in past month. Covid is a mild cold and they are back in 5 days. 2 employees with the flu are still sick after 2 weeks. The Flu has reappeared with a vengeance

[donassaid]

Don't you mean "go to the CDC and uneducated yourself thru their misinformation?

[Cliff Fr]

With the pandemic quickly becoming endemic that is far less deadly I don't think the positivity rate is very useful information now. It's becoming like tracking the positivity rate of the common cold, IMO.

[billethkid]

With the pandemic quickly becoming endemic that is far less deadly I don't think the positivity rate is very useful information now. It's becoming like tracking the positivity rate of the common cold, IMO.

be-eye-en-gee-oh!

[Old Bob]

Old Bob jus doesn't get it.
It's just a rate based on tests given.
A Positivity Rate as nothing to do with the total population.

It's like asking why he can't get mustard out of a catsup bottle.

:shrug:

Old Bob hasn't even posted in this thread!!!!!

[Rodneysblue]

:popcorn::popcorn:Can somebody explain the meaning and significance of "positivity rate"? Is the the percent of people tested during some specific time period who have Covid? Is it the percent of people who ever had Covid? Is it something else?

The real question is, how does it relate to the percent of the population who at this instant in time have an active case of Covid? It seems to me that's the important thing to know.

:popcorn::popcorn:

[Rodneysblue]

Don't you mean "go to the CDC and uneducated yourself thru their misinformation?
:clap2:
Changes day to day.

[dewilson58]

Old Bob hasn't even posted in this thread!!!!!

well hello official old bob...............welcome!!!

:ho:

[JMintzer]

Old Bob hasn't even posted in this thread!!!!!

Slacker... :icon_wink:

[dewilson58]

"Go to the CDC site and EDUCATE yourself"? Is that a joke?

No Joke.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Positivity rate: tests taken and have a positive result
If tests taken represent a random sample, then if the number of tests are large enough to be statistically significant, a positive rate can estimate the general population positivity rate within degrees of freedom errors

In general, there are three test populations with the different parameters below:
1) a person gets tested i / walks into a general testing site, no doctor evaluation
2) a person calls his / her doctor, describes symptoms, doctor recommends getting tested after passing symptom checker
(this is the normal evaluation and testing process for most communicable diseases)
3) a person is going into the hospital for a procedure, and is required to be tested for procedure requirements by nurses, doctors, recovery isolation, etc. to prevent further spread.

1) most random and most statistically representative of the general population
2) rate expected to be high after passing a symptom check, the more tests in this procedure, the more positive tests, potentially the higher the rate. this is the standard non covid test request by a doctor. . this test can be labeled for covid
3) this tests represents the with covid testing rate, and in general is not large enough to be statistically population, but is usually in line with with the general population rate, with wider degrees of freedom for fewer numbers of tests.

The published number, single point, is a blend of these three tested populations, and the published rate will be effected by the size of each population, and in general, can be generalized to the direction up or down, of the population rate of infection. .

Source: coachk's hospital testing populations classifications and test results which are published daily.

stats guy

[tvbound]

To the consternation of a certain demographic, every day adds more proof that regarding Covid death rates/ICU cases - we are in a "pandemic of the unvaccinated."

[bob47]

Positivity rate: tests taken and have a positive result
If tests taken represent a random sample, then if the number of tests are large enough to be statistically significant, a positive rate can estimate the general population positivity rate within degrees of freedom errors

In general, there are three test populations with the different parameters below:
1) a person gets tested i / walks into a general testing site, no doctor evaluation
2) a person calls his / her doctor, describes symptoms, doctor recommends getting tested after passing symptom checker
(this is the normal evaluation and testing process for most communicable diseases)
3) a person is going into the hospital for a procedure, and is required to be tested for procedure requirements by nurses, doctors, recovery isolation, etc. to prevent further spread.

1) most random and most statistically representative of the general population
2) rate expected to be high after passing a symptom check, the more tests in this procedure, the more positive tests, potentially the higher the rate. this is the standard non covid test request by a doctor. . this test can be labeled for covid
3) this tests represents the with covid testing rate, and in general is not large enough to be statistically population, but is usually in line with with the general population rate, with wider degrees of freedom for fewer numbers of tests.

The published number, single point, is a blend of these three tested populations, and the published rate will be effected by the size of each population, and in general, can be generalized to the direction up or down, of the population rate of infection. .

Source: coachk's hospital testing populations classifications and test results which are published daily.

stats guy

Thanks for providing an answer with some meat on the bones.