How is your portfolio holding up?

[Babubhat]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.

[Stu from NYC]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.

When you consider inflation and paying taxes on the pitiful small interest rates available nothing is giving a positive return.

Markets go up and down and nobody can consistently figure out the highs and lows.

[retiredguy123]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.
40 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, 20 percent cash. My portfolio is down about 9 percent since the beginning of the year. Last year, it was up 10 percent for the year. Selling would mean huge capital gains. Fortunately, I live off of my pension.

[JoelJohnson]

I'll let you know in 5 years.

[Robbb]

Turns out bond funds were the "big lie" of the decade, all the risk none of the returns.

[manaboutown]

I am waiting for the market to bottom as I just sold a commercial property at an unbelievably low cap rate and now have cash to invest (after paying a huge tax bill).

Patience is a virtue, at least in this market.

Rents still coming in well. The houses I own are still appreciating according to Zillow for whatever that's worth. I sleep well at night.

[Stu from NYC]

I am waiting for the market to bottom as I just sold a commercial property at an unbelievably low cap rate and now have cash to invest (after paying a huge tax bill).

Patience is a virtue, at least in this market.

Rents still coming in well. The houses I own are still appreciating according to Zillow for whatever that's worth. I sleep well at night.

How in the world will you know when the market bottoms out? Dollar cost averaging works the best for times like this.

[RICH1]

65 year old Day traders are jumping off Step stools ! A good Broker is only as good as the Market…

[manaboutown]

How in the world will you know when the market bottoms out? Dollar cost averaging works the best for times like this.

I can't possibly know "the bottom" but am planning some purchases when P/E ratios drop to about their historical averages. At present it seems to me the market will drop further due to inflation, rising interest rates, issues due to the war in Ukraine and other factors.

[Babubhat]

"nothing is making money"? How about commodities?

Not today. Apple chart just broke support. Massive put buying 15 points below. Timber!

Prince would say going to party like it’s 1929.

History channel says:
The Market—And People—Were Overconfident

Some experts argue that at the time of the crash, stocks were wildly overpriced and that a collapse was imminent.

That same sense of reckless overconfidence extended to average consumers and small investors, too, leading to an “asset bubble.” The crash happened after a long period of rising market growth that led to consumer overconfidence.

In fact, after 1922, the stock market had increased by nearly 20 percent each year until 1929.

[Rainger99]

Everything is down! I lost more last month than i made my first three years of working (before taxes)!

[melpetezrinski]

Not today. Apple chart just broke support. Massive put buying 15 points below. Timber!

No, not today but one day declines in an asset class doesn't really warrant the claim that "nothing is making money". And yes, buying put options ARE making money, as well as, shorting the market.

[Babubhat]

No, not today but one day declines in an asset class doesn't really warrant the claim that "nothing is making money". And yes, buying put options ARE making money, as well as, shorting the market.

Sqqq has been the G.O.A.T

[Stu from NYC]

No, not today but one day declines in an asset class doesn't really warrant the claim that "nothing is making money". And yes, buying put options ARE making money, as well as, shorting the market.

Anything can make money until they dont.

[rustyp]

Let's assume you have less than 5 years to live would you get out of the market now and wait for volatility to stabilize and then get back in ? Riding out the market and waiting for a comeback makes no money. Getting out now and getting back in at a lower point makes money when the comeback comes. Staying in for the long term is a good strategy if you have a long term. So if you are willing to play the odds on the stock market per history why would one not be willing to play the odds on life expectancy per history ?

[Indy-Guy]

I-Bonds are now paying 9.62%. You buy them only from the US Treasury. Videos below explain how I-Bonds work in detail.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pIRjfHv834&t=300

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwNtVNj-4P4

[DAVES]

So few understand reality. You made 10% last year and lost 10% this year-10,000+10%=11,000. You then loose 10% 11,000-10%=9900
HUH 100 vanished.
Our CPI consumer price index is roughly 8%. It costs 8% more for the same goods. You pay that with after tax dollars. Take your top tax rate and add that to the 8% and that is what you need to make to be even.
Long term? Buffet is 86 and he advises he is buying, investing for long term? HUH covers that.
The stock market average, S&P 500 has been up every year for the past fifteen till now.
We are told long term the stock market always goes up. The peak of the great depression was 1932. I of course was not born. I read that if you stayed in the market in 1932 you recovered in 1968 so if you were 20 in 1932 you were roughly 60 when you recovered the money you lost.
I think all are uncomfortable. What to do and when to do it-BEATS ME. A good day in the market is losing less than the S&P. iT IS STILL A LOSS.

[Babubhat]

If you have 5 years to live you should spend like Brewsters Millions. Can’t take it with you

[Stu from NYC]

Let's assume you have less than 5 years to live would you get out of the market now and wait for volatility to stabilize and then get back in ? Riding out the market and waiting for a comeback makes no money. Getting out now and getting back in at a lower point makes money when the comeback comes. Staying in for the long term is a good strategy if you have a long term. So if you are willing to play the odds on the stock market per history why would one not be willing to play the odds on life expectancy per history ?

How do you know if this is the bottom or what the market will do over say the next 5 years. If this is the bottom your strategy does not work.

That is why dollar cost averaging is a good idea for the smaller investor.

[DAVES]

Let's assume you have less than 5 years to live would you get out of the market now and wait for volatility to stabilize and then get back in ? Riding out the market and waiting for a comeback makes no money. Getting out now and getting back in at a lower point makes money when the comeback comes. Staying in for the long term is a good strategy if you have a long term. So if you are willing to play the odds on the stock market per history why would one not be willing to play the odds on life expectancy per history ?

The people SELLING ADVICE say all kinds of conflicting STUFF. If, you sell and then buy back you need to get not one but two things right. Sell at the right time and then
buy at the right time. As they tell us few get both right. However, what they do not say
is you do not need to catch the exact top or bottom. Close enough and you make far more than average.

Life expectancy, per history, is also a far more complex issue than most understand.
Life expectancy is an average. At one time in history, typically a mother would die, around every two births. infant mortality has dropped on AVERAGE. If, there are two people, one lives to 100 and one dies at 1 their average life is 50 years.

[DAVES]

Anything can make money until they dont.

We all know from experience many people do not know truth. What is your net worth? A reply $$$$$$$$. But what about what you owe. Net worth is assets less liabilities.

It is like fishing. Pictures, reality, prevents the fish from growing for years after it was caught and eaten.

[retiredguy123]

How do you know if this is the bottom or what the market will do over say the next 5 years. If this is the bottom your strategy does not work.

That is why dollar cost averaging is a good idea for the smaller investor.
Dollar cost averaging is a good strategy, but I think it works best when it is done for both buying and selling stocks. You buy stocks on a regular basis over a long period of time, the accumulation phase. Then, you hold the stocks for a long period of time. Then, you sell the stocks on a regular basis over a long period of time, the liquidation phase. Most people in retirement should be in the liquidation phase for their stocks.

[MrFlorida]

Wall Street Roulette, if the brokers knew where the market was going, they would all be rich....

[Babubhat]

Technical analysis. Don’t care what pundits think. Brokers should refund fees if they don’t make you money,

Algorithms are the bulk of trades. They buy strength and sell weakness. Emotionless

[Stu from NYC]

Dollar cost averaging is a good strategy, but I think it works best when it is done for both buying and selling stocks. You buy stocks on a regular basis over a long period of time, the accumulation phase. Then, you hold the stocks for a long period of time. Then, you sell the stocks on a regular basis over a long period of time, the liquidation phase. Most people in retirement should be in the liquidation phase for their stocks.

Interesting. In grad school spent a lot of time talking about dollar cost averaging but only on the buy side.

Why sell a fixed amount when you do not need the money on a fixed schedule, better to take out only when needed unless you are uncomfortable having too much money in equities and want to rebalance your portfolio.

[retiredguy123]

Interesting. In grad school spent a lot of time talking about dollar cost averaging but only on the buy side.

Why sell a fixed amount when you do not need the money on a fixed schedule, better to take out only when needed unless you are uncomfortable having too much money in equities and want to rebalance your portfolio.
My original retirement plan was to liquidate all stocks over time in retirement, and replace them with a laddered portfolio of bonds. But, my plan was derailed by the artificially low interest rates created by the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, I am able to live very comfortably on my obscenely high Federal pension.

[Babubhat]

People love pensions in down market. Let someone else deal with the risk

[coralway]

Technical analysis. Don’t care what pundits think. Brokers should refund fees if they don’t make you money,

Algorithms are the bulk of trades. They buy strength and sell weakness. Emotionless




Why the heck should brokers return fees if they don't make you $$? The ONLY person responsible for your finances is YOU !!!!!

If you are not competent enough to manage your own $$, don't blame others.

[Babubhat]

Why the heck should brokers return fees if they don't make you $$? The ONLY person responsible for your finances is YOU !!!!!

If you are not competent enough to manage your own $$, don't blame others.

I have never used a broker but too many do. That job should not exist. Glorified car salesman. They sell what the firm tells them to. Only pay for private equity

[tophcfa]

People love pensions in down market. Let someone else deal with the risk

Right up until the equity loaded pension fund becomes so underfunded it’s taken over by the pension benefit guarantee corp. and their benefits are cut to the low guaranteed cap.

[Babubhat]

Public pensions. Private pension are Stone Age. Many companies turned them into annuity. Too costly

[tophcfa]

Public pensions. Private pension are Stone Age. Many companies turned them into annuity. Too costly

I had 21 vested years in a private pension before it was discounted. The plans funding status is rapidly deteriorating with the market and my benefits will be cut substantially if it’s taken over by the PBGC. That’s the primary reason I took my savings out of equities a year ago, too much exposure through the plan. Another 10% correction in the market and I will begin to average in at cheaper levels.

[Villages Kahuna]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.
You will never be able to avoid a loss to your portfolio in a major correction. You can greatly minimize the impact with a proper allocation—well chosen stocks and fixed income securities. You will not protect yourself by going “all cash” because you’ll miss the beginning of the correction and you’ll absolutely miss the beginning of what is usually a very quick recovery. And while you’re in cash, inflation will kill you. ALLOCATION is the key to minimizing the effect of a major correction!

[GizmoWhiskers]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.

Can't lose what you don't have.

[Outofjersey]

There is one group of people making more money than ever and seems to be a good investment at this time and that is the oil companies

[mkjelenbaas]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.
How do you think a portfolio is holding up - pull your head out of the sand!

[Babubhat]

They finally learned capital discipline but are constantly abused by federal and state governments. Historically high prices do not last. If the Russian guy is eliminated prices plummet

[jabacon6669]

My financial advisor several years ago told me to put my money in annuities. I can select my own strategies at the beginning of each portfolio year. For example: My portfolio renews in March. My strategies I selected 1. 20% declared (fixed) rate - 3.2%. 2. 40% Gold 1year Point to point. capped @7.75%, if gold goes down you loose zero. 3. S&P500 1year Point to Point capped 6.1%, if S&P goes down you loose zero. Other choices are, Real Estate 1year Point to Point 8.7%. they're are a couple of other choices with less risk that pay around 2.3%. Bottom line, market goes up you make money. Market goes down you don't loose. As a retiree this appears to me to be a safe and secure investment plan. I am with Great American Life Ins. Co. They just this past month got bought out by Mass Mutual. No changes to my two contracts.

[rustyp]

They finally learned capital discipline but are constantly abused by federal and state governments. Historically high prices do not last. If the Russian guy is eliminated prices plummet

The Russian / Afghan war lasted 10 years - 1981 - 1991.

[Golfer222]

buy low/sell high

[Stu from NYC]

My financial advisor several years ago told me to put my money in annuities. I can select my own strategies at the beginning of each portfolio year. For example: My portfolio renews in March. My strategies I selected 1. 20% declared (fixed) rate - 3.2%. 2. 40% Gold 1year Point to point. capped @7.75%, if gold goes down you loose zero. 3. S&P500 1year Point to Point capped 6.1%, if S&P goes down you loose zero. Other choices are, Real Estate 1year Point to Point 8.7%. they're are a couple of other choices with less risk that pay around 2.3%. Bottom line, market goes up you make money. Market goes down you don't loose. As a retiree this appears to me to be a safe and secure investment plan. I am with Great American Life Ins. Co. They just this past month got bought out by Mass Mutual. No changes to my two contracts.

Any idea how much your financial advisor made in commission from your "investments".

If the market goes up and in the long run it does, you will make money but not nearly as much as others who invest in other vehicles like mutual funds. Bet he showed you a 20 year trend of the market where annuities did the best. Nest time ask him what happens if he changes the 20 year period to several other periods.

Nothing wrong with a balance portfolio to limit your risk

There is an old saying about annuities, they are sold they are never bought.

[rsmurano]

Cash is kill. I pulled out every single cent out of my ira/401k accts in January 2022, a 77% portfolio pullout. I did put a few hundred thousand in an energy fund that has made almost 6 digit gains since February.
Dow is down 12%, Nasdaq 27% ytd. I will probably day trade a couple of tech stocks during this month but overall, until fundamentals change, we haven’t seen the bottom yet IMO

[retiredguy123]

My financial advisor several years ago told me to put my money in annuities. I can select my own strategies at the beginning of each portfolio year. For example: My portfolio renews in March. My strategies I selected 1. 20% declared (fixed) rate - 3.2%. 2. 40% Gold 1year Point to point. capped @7.75%, if gold goes down you loose zero. 3. S&P500 1year Point to Point capped 6.1%, if S&P goes down you loose zero. Other choices are, Real Estate 1year Point to Point 8.7%. they're are a couple of other choices with less risk that pay around 2.3%. Bottom line, market goes up you make money. Market goes down you don't loose. As a retiree this appears to me to be a safe and secure investment plan. I am with Great American Life Ins. Co. They just this past month got bought out by Mass Mutual. No changes to my two contracts.
A typical sales commission for selling an annuity is about 10 percent of the contract amount. They can pay such high commissions because there is usually a 7 to 10 year surrender fee for selling early. Also, the annual fees to the insurance company are much higher than other investments, and these fees are added on to the internal fund management fees. When they say you can't lose money, they are only referring to the market fluctuations, not the fees. So, the money you get back can be less than what you invested, but they will claim that you didn't actually lose money, you just had to pay the fees. But, my main complaint with annuities is that, it is a contract with an insurance company that is typically more than 100 pages, and they will not allow you to read it before you sign it. To me, that is a non-starter.

You will almost always make more money by investing your money in the same products within a mutual fund instead of an annuity. And, another thing that you need to consider is that any money you do make with an annuity will be taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. So, if you have capital gains, you don't get the tax advantage of a lower income tax rate like you do with mutual funds or other investment products.

[Zenmama18]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.

Lost a bunch this year so far and it wasn't even fun!

[JMintzer]

https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.1058426098.2262/mp,504x516,gloss,f8f8f8,t-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.u1.jpg

[Dr.Butler]

My 401 k has taken a hit, but I dont retire for another 18 years so....

[Stu from NYC]

My 401 k has taken a hit, but I dont retire for another 18 years so....

Its just a paper loss for now

[hrenner]

The elites and their hedge fund managers are still making millions regardless of which way the indices go. Chump retail investors are just told to stay in it for the "long term" Nothing is making money even cash when factoring in inflation and Real Estate will be the next index to correct. I won't inject politics of course by we all know why.
The whole world is struggling, so don't point fingers

[RVJim]

This thread topic or some variant of it pops up whenever there is market volatility. Unless you are trying to day trade or time the market, if you are watching your investments on a day to day basis and reacting to day to day changes you are doing it wrong. Keep one to two years of living expenses in cash and let the market do what it is going to do making small adjustments along the way. Watching your investments on a daily basis and reacting to it just creates emotion which can be expensive.

[RPDaly]

Cash is kill. I pulled out every single cent out of my ira/401k accts in January 2022, a 77% portfolio pullout. I did put a few hundred thousand in an energy fund that has made almost 6 digit gains since February.
Dow is down 12%, Nasdaq 27% ytd. I will probably day trade a couple of tech stocks during this month but overall, until fundamentals change, we haven’t seen the bottom yet IMO

You had perfect timing

[twoplanekid]

And what are we doing with your 1.7 plus billion ? I am a new member on the Investment Advisory Committee. The funds are well diversified over many sectors and have stayed in a short position for the most part. Have a sneak peek -> Coversheet (https://district.novusagenda.com/AgendaPublic/CoverSheet.aspx?ItemID=56304&MeetingID=2200)

[Dr.Butler]

It is ignorant to think the problem we are experiencing is not the cause of WH doings. It’s so easy to blame everybody else when failed policies exist when just a couple of years ago everything was going great.

A couple of years ago, the pandemic was essentially just starting, and the world was not on the brink of war. It is nothing short of hubris to think that The USA is central to what has occurred the world over. You wold be better served to learn from these events that we are ALL interconnected, and what impacts another nation has far reaching impacts.

[Babubhat]

Free money is always a disaster when it stops. Period. Ignored

[Taurus510]

When you consider inflation and paying taxes on the pitiful small interest rates available nothing is giving a positive return.

Markets go up and down and nobody can consistently figure out the highs and lows.
My financial advisor figured this one out. We talked at the end of last year, he suggested some moves we should be making, because he stated that by mid to late summer, we’d most likely be looking at record inflation and high interest rates. (I have no idea how he could’ve predicted that, but here we are). Ok, maybe I do know how he figured it out, but I digress.

[RVJim]

Free money is always a disaster when it stops. Period. Ignored

You are absolutely correct .. shutting off the PPP loans and pandemic assistance has had an effect. People got used to the free money doled out in 2020 and 2021. The resulting inflation has been a difficult pill to swallow but this is what happens when the economy is flooded with free money.

[jedalton]

99% correct but if it's a variable annuity you have to get a prospectus before you sign anything. Trying to understand it, is another thing

[Hdljet]

I have been in oil pipeline MLP’s and refiners since the market lows of COVID. 10% + distribution/dividends. No Bonds some cash. Energy conversion is a mistimed ideology for the nest 5 years at least.

[MidWestIA]

maybe to late gsp

[rustyp]

I have been in oil pipeline MLP’s and refiners since the market lows of COVID. 10% + distribution/dividends. No Bonds some cash. Energy conversion is a mistimed ideology for the nest 5 years at least.

Are you thinking that is good ? The S&P is up 70% since the lows of COVID.

[Caymus]

Dow Futures were up today until the April CPI was released. Maybe next month............

[Stu from NYC]

Dow Futures were up today until the April CPI was released. Maybe next month............

This is one of the reason I never even think to time the market, to much maybes

[OhioBuckeye]

The way prices keep going up, I say watch your spending until things get straightened out. Unless you have a lot of money saved up, then I would be very careful how I spend my money! We’re going through pretty tough times now. I’ve had people tell me that we lived an easy life & now we’re seeing how most of the world lives. But I say this is a bunch of hooie. I say someone is forcing this on us. Just my opinion !

[Taurus510]

So my portfolio wasn't really worth a lot more a couple of years ago and my expenses a lot less? Gee thanks for the reality check.

Go Brandon.
Yeah, I guess mine was an illusion as well. My portfolio looked a lot better at the end of the last administration than it looks one year into this one. But it’s merely an illusion. Thank God, I was worried there for no reason!

[ChrisTee]

Holding steady for the ride (I think we'll have a significant recession, but what do I know?)

[ChrisTee]

Have you looked at the money supply?

Unbelievable. The Federal Reserve increased the money supply higher than ever over the past 4+ years (QE started earlier but ramped up so much over the past 4+ years).... they've created so much money it's unbelievable. Unbelievable. In the form of mortgage backed securities (that are sold on the stock market! And purchased with taxpayer $ Hello!) and selling Treasuries.

The mainstream media doesn't hardly report this, but it is public record. Look it up under Federal Reserve money supply, or see the recent papers written by professors at Harvard, Stanford, etc. Our government keeps spending - regardless of party - they spend and spend and are "printing Monopoly money" to pay for it. Seems like we're in deep - too deep?

[rustyp]

So my portfolio wasn't really worth a lot more a couple of years ago and my expenses a lot less? Gee thanks for the reality check.

Go Brandon.

Yeah, I guess mine was an illusion as well. My portfolio looked a lot better at the end of the last administration than it looks one year into this one. But it’s merely an illusion. Thank God, I was worried there for no reason!

The federal debt increase by year:

2018 + $1.3T
2019 + $1.2T
2020 + $5.0T
2021 + $1.9T
2022 + $0.8 T YTD

A quick refresher - The CARES relief act was passed on March 27 2020.

[Tbrazie]

Stocks and bonds in bear market. Crypto and commodities getting crushed today. Housing prices have topped. Cash and being short look like the only positive returns. Big liquidity trap.
Been doing this for a long time managing family trusts.
My suggestion is to buy dividend producing stocks in this kind of a market and keep 50% in cash. I switched to this about three months ago.
I am not a financial advisor so this is just my thinking.

[vintageogauge]

I held tight during the last two and came out of it pretty well so I'll sit tight through this one too.

[Stu from NYC]

I held tight during the last two and came out of it pretty well so I'll sit tight through this one too.

Doing same thing just not adding to our portfolio for the moment.

[Boomer]

Do you know what a Black Swan is?

If not, look it up.

We have had 2 in 2 years. 2 big ones. Huge factors.

Boomer

[Garywt]

I really don’t look too much into anything. I converted my 401k to an IRA when I retired. I have spent most of it between paying things off and buying things. We live off my pension, disability and my wife’s paychecks. I own 2 houses, 2 campers and a boat. If money is needed I can sell any of them. When I die my wife gets my insurance and she can sell anything that she want to.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

IRA is up 10% from the beginning of the year, looking to accelerate up if all works out correctly. A really good ETF to buy is $LBAY, both long and short. Taxable account is up less but up, maybe 5%, and haven't checked 401K but it should be down less than 10%.

sold all long equity last august, starting seeing that the risk return was very high and not worth holding equities, in 401K and IRA. .

bear market rally starting point somewhere between 3700 and 3850, S&P500 fair market valuation was around 3500, but now falling with supply chain shortages again. . . most likely goes to undervalued, so bottom somewhere starting with a 2 for a generational low to put all cash back into equities

good luck, its not your father's market any more.

[tophcfa]

Have you looked at the money supply?

Unbelievable. The Federal Reserve increased the money supply higher than ever over the past 4+ years (QE started earlier but ramped up so much over the past 4+ years).... they've created so much money it's unbelievable. Unbelievable. In the form of mortgage backed securities (that are sold on the stock market! And purchased with taxpayer $ Hello!) and selling Treasuries.

The mainstream media doesn't hardly report this, but it is public record. Look it up under Federal Reserve money supply, or see the recent papers written by professors at Harvard, Stanford, etc. Our government keeps spending - regardless of party - they spend and spend and are "printing Monopoly money" to pay for it. Seems like we're in deep - too deep?

Yup, the media doesn’t report the root cause of inflation. They blame it on the pandemic, supply chain issues, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, etc…. Sure, those things all contribute to inflation, but extreme irresponsibility by the Federal Reserve and out of control deficit spending by the government since around 2008 is the real cause. Unfortunately, the same reasons for the cause are also the reasons inflation is not transitory and will be a long term burden.

[Babubhat]

A Stablecoin crashed yet they want to let you put crypto in retirement accounts. Brilliant

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

I don’t know or care anything about the market , that’s why I have vanguard index funds for 30 years, covering all the markets , the group was always conservative , but now even more so but I still have some money going into funds every month, no worries ever besides if things get really bad I could learn to cook , I eat out or get takeout almost every night and considering a lot of those nights out I have a date i I’m probably spending $ 2,500 a month just on food and that sounds low to me

[Stu from NYC]

I don’t know or care anything about the market , that’s why I have vanguard index funds for 30 years, covering all the markets , the group was always conservative , but now even more so but I still have some money going into funds every month, no worries ever besides if things get really bad I could learn to cook , I eat out or get takeout almost every night and considering a lot of those nights out I have a date i I’m probably spending $ 2,500 just on food and that sounds low to me

Your doing great but could probably double or triple your food cost to get what you are spending.

[Keefelane66]

I’m getting a little concerned that my landscaper hasn’t raised his monthly landscape fees.

[RVJim]

A Stablecoin crashed yet they want to let you put crypto in retirement accounts. Brilliant

I don’t think there is any “wanting” people to invest in crypto but I do think people should be able to if they so desire. I don’t think the government or any other entity should prevent people from doing what they want with regard to investing. If you lose money, thats on you. I don’t expect guardrails in my financial life.

[tophcfa]

I don’t think there is any “wanting” people to invest in crypto but I do think people should be able to if they so desire. I don’t think the government or any other entity should prevent people from doing what they want with regard to investing. If you lose money, thats on you. I don’t expect guardrails in my financial life.

The investment industry wants people to invest in things they can make management fees, commissions, transaction fees, etc… on. The government wants people to invest in things they can regulate, monitor, and tax.

[Boomer]

A Stablecoin crashed yet they want to let you put crypto in retirement accounts. Brilliant

People can get into a lot of trouble in their retirement accounts. That’s what I was using (403(b) to buy dot-com funds in the 1990s. I have written about that fiasco before. I did not invest everything in dot-com, but when that bubble popped, it hurt, not only my balance, but my ego. It was all my fault. And that is how it should be. Lesson learned.

While individual choice in investing is one thing, the investing done at the state level, with money being paid into pension funds, etc., should be completely transparent. I also think that type of state-level investing should have parameters………

Those who manage public pension funds should be under a microscope. There are problems in several states now. Other People’s Money in the hands of high risk takers does not bode well. Also, there are high commissions being paid out of OPM. In the case of state pension funds, people pay in and hope for the best. Some states are letting the wolves guard the sheep.

It happens with other public funds, too. Ohio about 20 years ago, had “Coingate” with the workers’ comp fund.

Anyway, state retirement funds need guardrails. Some of them have been known to do stupid, lazy, high risk, or shady things with Other People’s Money.

Boomer

[ChrisTee]

Yup, the media doesn’t report the root cause of inflation. They blame it on the pandemic, supply chain issues, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, etc…. Sure, those things all contribute to inflation, but extreme irresponsibility by the Federal Reserve and out of control deficit spending by the government since around 2008 is the real cause. Unfortunately, the same reasons for the cause are also the reasons inflation is not transitory and will be a long term burden.

You got it. The current inflation is very much about the money supply. M2 is way out of control and directly related to the inflation we're experiencing. Inflation is well over 8% and the value of the US dollar is eroding - losing value every day. It may not end that well for some, and it will hurt our kids. We all know the government can't just spend $ and print $ forever - it will retard and then collapse the economy at some point.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

You will never be able to avoid a loss to your portfolio in a major correction. You can greatly minimize the impact with a proper allocation—well chosen stocks and fixed income securities. You will not protect yourself by going “all cash” because you’ll miss the beginning of the correction and you’ll absolutely miss the beginning of what is usually a very quick recovery. And while you’re in cash, inflation will kill you. ALLOCATION is the key to minimizing the effect of a major correction!

Typed like a portfolio manager who is paid to manage money with portfolio limitations of minimum required investment amounts.

Being in cash avoiding a 10% drawdown offsets the loss in cash purchasing by maintaining total portfolio value versus losing portfolio value. you can lose portfolio value in more than one way.

because you’ll miss the beginning of the correction and you’ll absolutely miss the beginning of what is usually a very quick recovery.

maybe, but that statement is the most widely used self justification for managing other people's money and discouraging customer withdrawing assets upon which a pm gets paid.

If you moved to cash for excessive valuation, high risk in future returns, i suspect that one can use the same methods for getting back into the market with undervaluation and low risk in future returns.

the last 40 years of markets were great, but also not the entire history of capitalism, wealth inequality, and speculation -> all of which have been seen before and will be seen again.

finance guy

i am adding that with all the investment literature, software, data, etc, retail investors can educate themselves much more than at anytime in the past, and as such raise their investment acumen enough to make positive expectational investments, which portfolio managers want to continue to maintain as the dumb investment crowd, and want to keep you as a retail investor convinced you are dumb and the PM is the smart money. the inequality divide in this case is shrinking rapidly if you want to do the work.

[manaboutown]

Interesting comment by Coach about portfolio managers' compensation.

Ten or fifteen years ago long time professional musician friends of mine sold a huge home on acreage in Mesa, AZ to downsize. They had (and still have) a financial advisor who they trust and like. She was upset they wanted to use part of the proceeds to buy a Bosendorfer grand piano for $80,000. The piano was in terrific shape, had been played in The Blue Note, autographed by Herbie Hancock and was worth the price. The lady of the house teaches piano and violin and plays both in gigs all over the PHX area so I am sure the piano could be depreciated to offset their income taxes. The advisor seemed to protesteth too much. It felt to me like the advisor was in part compensated by the size of their portfolio and did not want to see it reduced in any way, even for a good purpose.

In another thread I posted I had recently sold a real estate property and put the proceeds into a brokerage account. For years it had been a relatively small account and what I added was sizable by most people's standards. The very next business day a financial advisor at the firm both phoned and emailed and wanted to meet with me. I have to chuckle as no one from the firm had ever previously contacted me for any reason over the many years my account was small. lol. He offered to be my "contact", help me use the website, answer any questions I had and so on. I said OK, he could be my contact. He then went on and started to ask the usual qualifying questions about my investment experience and whether I wanted growth, value, blah, blah, blah. I told him I was 80 years old, had invested in the stock market on my own since I was in high school and was doing just fine, that I was mostly a real estate guy but planned on selling a couple more properties to simplify my life. When I casually mentioned I had bought a few shares of BRK back in the '80s he thought that was the price I paid! I said, no, I had bought some during the 1980s. I told him I had a couple other brokerage accounts which held most of my stock. He then repeatedly asked me to consolidate and it put it all into his firm. I declined and told him I had seen banks and brokerage houses go under and would never put all my eggs in one basket. What astonished me was the pressuring to put it all with his firm. Bingo, more bucks for him.

[Nucky]

We're fine so far. :pray:

[retiredguy123]

I like the Fisher Investments commercials where they say "we do better when you do better". True, but they still get the same percentage of your portfolio even when you lose money. I have never paid anyone for financial advice, except for the built in management fees in a no load mutual fund, called the expense ratio. Vanguard Investments has the lowest expense ratios for almost all mutual fund companies. By the way, when you read the prospectus for a fund, the expense ratio must be listed on the first page or two of the document. Also, look for 12b1 fees, which are fees charged to the fund to advertise the fund. I prefer funds that do not have any 12b1 fees, and also don't have a load fee, which is a fee to buy shares in the fund. I don't see any reason to pay these fees.

[Stu from NYC]

So called financial advisor like dumb investors otherwise how would they sell them annuities.

Can make a case for fee only advisors who should not have a reason to steer you in a way that makes them extra money.

[Ecuadog]

I am trying to figure out how to convince my wife that a diet of just rice & beans is truly meant for us.

[Babubhat]

Any financial advisor get an immediate hang up

[retiredguy123]

Any financial advisor get an immediate hang up
I once got a call from a local financial advisor with a large investment company. I asked him if he knew that he was violating Federal law by calling a number on the the do-not-call list. He was shocked. He didn't even realize that the local calls he was making were illegal.

[ChrisTee]

I am trying to figure out how to convince my wife that a diet of just rice & beans is truly meant for us.

It's the after effects of that diet that give me pause....

[Stu from NYC]

I once got a call from a local financial advisor with a large investment company. I asked him if he knew that he was violating Federal law by calling a number on the the do-not-call list. He was shocked. He didn't even realize that the local calls he was making were illegal.

Wow so strange he would not know this

[CoachKandSportsguy]

A colleague friend of mine worked many years at Fidelity HQ, as an accountant. Told me many stories. Has a Fido money manager. Once asked the Fido mm if he should pay off the college loan early to avoid paying the rent on borrowed money. Fido mm told him absolutely not, not to remove any money from his investment account and instead, stop spending and start saving more any way he could. he is two + years away from retirement as are we. . . rented money is not your friend when on Social security and in good physical shape.

LOL! another former fidelity colleague 20 years younger, just got a call from his fido mm within the last two weeks, recommending investments since the market was down.

Also, he told me the highest turnover was just after annual bonus payout. . . hmmm. . .gotta wonder about motivations with people managing other people's money.

In my November meeting with Fido mm stated that Fido didn't see a recession in the near future, true, but risk can increase very quickly, and especially at high valuations after 40 years of declining interest rates, which do have lower limits. .

[tvbound]

Since the time my company started matching my 401K back in the mid 80's (free money is always a good thing), I mostly was in the 'high risk/high reward' crowd. As retirement approached a couple of years ago though and knowing that my children & grandchildren would be OK, that we have enough to do whatever we want, I slowly transitioned to more conventional/conservative options. While the gains didn't mirror the short-term explosive run-ups (and volatility) lately, in the last few months, I don't regret my choices one bit. Lots of constant reading and research (still occurring), made me believe that I was the person most interested in MY money - so have stayed away from any money management "professionals."

[tvbound]

The small twang of the fear of missing out during recent run-ups that I've had occasionally after becoming more conservative, have totally went away after the last week or so - and especially after today. What a massacre and I just hope things settle down soon. Actually, now might be a good time to use some play money to get back into a few of the higher risk/reward areas.

[ChrisTee]

That's the ticket. No one has your best interests more than you.

Index funds are an easy solution for those who can set their AA and sit tight. And an index fund almost always performs better than an actively managed account -
from Finra - "In any given year, most actively managed funds do not beat the market. In fact, studies show that very few actively managed funds provide stronger-than-benchmark returns over long periods of time, including those with impressive short term performance records."
So no FA's needed!!!

[Ecuadog]

I am now viewing the local gators as food. Should incorporate well with my rice & beans diet.

[Stu from NYC]

I am now viewing the local gators as food. Should incorporate well with my rice & beans diet.

When the head gators find this out they will think of you as food also.

In other words run Forrest run.

[DAVES]

Wall Street Roulette, if the brokers knew where the market was going, they would all be rich....

Things have changed dramatically recently. Commission free trades are readily available.
Long gone is where you need to trade in lots of 100 shares to get the best price. Also, gone for most people are pensions replaced by IRAs, Roth IRAS, 401Ks, 403Bs, I'm sure I missed some.

Would all be rich? In a stock fund, or etf, the broker makes a percentage of the money in the fund. It is the same percentage whether you the investor make money or not.

Far as RICH. Does anyone but me remember that show THE MILLIONARE? The plot was there was an anonymous philanthropist who would give a million to some worthy person and they were set for life. Today, they would take tax out of it at the highest tax rate and what was left, you could buy a home.

[retiredguy123]

Things have changed dramatically recently. Commission free trades are readily available.
Long gone is where you need to trade in lots of 100 shares to get the best price. Also, gone for most people are pensions replaced by IRAs, Roth IRAS, 401Ks, 403Bs, I'm sure I missed some.

Would all be rich? In a stock fund, or etf, the broker makes a percentage of the money in the fund. It is the same percentage whether you the investor make money or not.

Far as RICH. Does anyone but me remember that show THE MILLIONARE? The plot was there was an anonymous philanthropist who would give a million to some worthy person and they were set for life. Today, they would take tax out of it at the highest tax rate and what was left, you could buy a home.
The Millionaire was a great show. As I recall, they always said that the guy giving the money paid any taxes due, so the money was not taxable to the recipient. But, the actual income tax rates in the 1950's, when the show aired, were much higher at the million dollar income level than they are today. Although, gifted money is not taxable income anyway. Also, the decision to give money to someone was not based on the recipient of the money being worthy or in need of the money.

[Stu from NYC]

Things have changed dramatically recently. Commission free trades are readily available.
Long gone is where you need to trade in lots of 100 shares to get the best price. Also, gone for most people are pensions replaced by IRAs, Roth IRAS, 401Ks, 403Bs, I'm sure I missed some.

Would all be rich? In a stock fund, or etf, the broker makes a percentage of the money in the fund. It is the same percentage whether you the investor make money or not.

Far as RICH. Does anyone but me remember that show THE MILLIONARE? The plot was there was an anonymous philanthropist who would give a million to some worthy person and they were set for life. Today, they would take tax out of it at the highest tax rate and what was left, you could buy a home.

As I recall it didnt work out well for most of the recipients

[Caymus]

I am now viewing the local gators as food. Should incorporate well with my rice & beans diet.

Never had gator. Does it taste like "chicken"?

[tophcfa]

Good, powder is still dry and waiting for the right time to light it up.

[Stu from NYC]

Never had gator. Does it taste like "chicken"?

Frogs taste like chicken, gator taste like the other white meat or so I have been told

[Babubhat]

Technical analysis is your edge. Most trading is algorithms. Any commentator on tv needs the boot when saying I think or it should, etc.. nothing more than a guess.

[Stu from NYC]

Technical analysis is your edge. Most trading is algorithms. Any commentator on tv needs the boot when saying I think or it should, etc.. nothing more than a guess.

Since nobody can consistently time the market what else do we have but opinions to go by?

I would rather invest in a basket of stocks picked by someone with a good long term track record.

[Robbb]

Since nobody can consistently time the market what else do we have but opinions to go by?

I would rather invest in a basket of stocks picked by someone with a good long term track record.


Why? unless they have insider information they are only guessing. That's kind of like saying the guy next to me at the roulette table keeps winning betting red so I will bet red.

[retiredguy123]

Why? unless they have insider information they are only guessing. That's kind of like saying the guy next to me at the roulette table keeps winning betting red so I will bet red.
Some investment companies will create 10 different mutual funds where the odds are that at least one of them will be successful. And, that is the one that they will market to their customers. I have always invested in index funds instead of funds managed by stock pickers.

[Stu from NYC]

Some investment companies will create 10 different mutual funds where the odds are that at least one of them will be successful. And, that is the one that they will market to their customers. I have always invested in index funds instead of funds managed by stock pickers.

I have several mutual funds, stay with those that have a good long term track record. Long term do a bit better than their pier groups. If they do not perform over some period of time we say bye and go on to another.