Recession or just pandemic recovery?

[gatorbill1]

I believe we are now in a pandemic recovery period. Remember, we have not had a pandemic in over 100 years so the economic experts did not know what to call what we are going through now, so all the talk has been recession.
No matter what party is in power or who the person is in power is irrelevant.
This is all NEW.

[Arctic Fox]

I believe we are now in a pandemic recovery period. Remember, we have not had a pandemic in over 100 years so the economic experts did not know what to call what we are going through now, so all the talk has been recession.

Pandemic caused supply chain issues, exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine

This is not a real recession and they should not be treating it as one

[Keefelane66]

The whole world is in recovery since the pandemic subsided. Supply and Demand everyone is requiring more product excessive demand creates shortages. Recently WalMart stocked up on clothing, electronics, yard furniture because of demand the previous year shortfalls. Due to increases in demand for daily staples FOOD, petroleum they are experiencing short falls in demand for clothing, electronics, furniture expect lower prices to deplete stock.
Fuel prices are coming down there is still a short fall in chip making for vehicles which may be resolved in Congress by finally returning production to US manufacturing FINALLY it all takes time. Again the Government is subsiding Companies to return this required commodity just as we bailed out the auto and banking in 2009. Sometimes the Government does work.

[justjim]

Economists love to debate these issues regarding the “R” word. Clearly the pandemic and Ukraine are arguably making this different from any other “R” in the past. Inflation is for real but appears to be slowing so the economy is not falling off the cliff and the Market will comeback given a bit of time. U.S. is way ahead the rest of the world. Finally, having more jobs than workers really makes this situation different from any so called down turns of the past. Fore

[Toymeister]

The definition of recession, two quarters of negative growth, was established in 1974 by the bureau of labor statistics. That definition has stood 48 years until a week ago when, for political spin, it suddenly was not the definition (sarcasm off).

WE ARE IN A RECESSION.

[Byte1]

Yep, the pandemic has been an excuse used for the last two years. Hmmm, wonder why. There is no way that we can have a decent discussion on this subject without it becoming political, so I will opt out of this one.

[Two Bills]

It is a world wide problem, and whoever was running the show would have been in the same boat.
Most of us have been in same situation before, and have survived to fight another day.
Sun will still rise again tomorrow.

[Timothyimitchell]

Oh it's a recession. Those job postings will disappear very soon. When that happens,it'll get ugly very quickly. Our grandkids are gonna have a tough go of it.

[Arctic Fox]

The definition of recession, two quarters of negative growth, was established in 1974 by the bureau of labor statistics. That definition has stood 48 years until a week ago when, for political spin, it suddenly was not the definition (sarcasm off).

That is merely a simplification of what was actually said:

In 1974 the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:

In terms of duration—declines in real G.N.P. for 2 consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six‐month period.

In terms of depth—A 1.5 per cent decline in real G.N.P.; a 15 per cent decline non-agricultural employment; a two‐point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6 percent.

In terms of diffusion—A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75 per cent of industries, as measured over six‐month spans, for 6 months or longer.

[Mortal1]

Thinking this is "new" is a huge mistake. George Santayana said, ""Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." This sort of problem has existed for centuries and will always exist as those who have learned from the past die and a few generations later make the same mistake...call it "negative common sense."

[EastCoastDawg]

Thinking this is "new" is a huge mistake. George Santayana said, ""Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." This sort of problem has existed for centuries and will always exist as those who have learned from the past die and a few generations later make the same mistake...call it "negative common sense."

In 1974, the biggest contributor to the economy was heavy manufacturing.

In 2022 it is healthcare and technology.

Applying the same rules to a very different economy might not work.

[ThirdOfFive]

It is official. The economy has shrunk for two straight quarters. All political rationalizations about the cause(s) aside, we are IN a recession.

[npwalters]

The OP is comparing unlike items. We are in a recession CAUSED (in part) by a pandemic.

[tophcfa]

The definition of recession, two quarters of negative growth, was established in 1974 by the bureau of labor statistics. That definition has stood 48 years until a week ago when, for political spin, it suddenly was not the definition (sarcasm off).

WE ARE IN A RECESSION.

You got that right toymeister. The root cause of the recession is irresponsible fiscal and monetary police since the recovery from the housing market crash in 2007/08. The excuse is the pandemic and Putin’s war, which have added to the problem, but aren’t the cause. People living in the bubble don’t see the extent of the problems the typical real world citizens are experiencing. The recession is driven by hyperinflation and the inflation is not transitory. Consumer spending will continue to decline as many people are broke after feeding their family and filling their gas tanks so they can commute to work. More pain will be coming to much of our nation when the cold season arrives and heating oil tanks need to be filled.

[kkingston57]

In 1974, the biggest contributor to the economy was heavy manufacturing.

In 2022 it is healthcare and technology.

Applying the same rules to a very different economy might not work.

Interesting thought. Also jobs in 1974, particularly manufacturing, were long term, as oppposed to jobs in 2022.

[Haggar]

An excellent link to "are we in a recession or not?"

GDP: So are we in a recession, or not? - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/economy/gdp-recession-fed/index.html)

[Blueblaze]

I've lived through too many recessions to remember them all. I waited in line for gas in the 70's. I lived through the Nixon-Carter inflation and the Reagan cure.

But I have never seen empty shelves at Wal-Mart or a baby formula shortage. I have never seen 100% inflation at the grocery store while the gooberment told me is was 8%. I have never see a foreign invasion of 2,000,000 aliens a year. I have never seen my country print 5 trillion dollars to pay people not to work.

There is no doubt that it's "different this time". But we've seen this, too, and it's got nothing to do with that stupid fake pandemic that only killed the same people who already had one foot in the grave.

This is what it looks like when a country comes unglued. We watched in happen to the Soviet Union 30 years ago, for the exact same reasons -- government lies and corruption.

[manaboutown]

Recession. The situation is beyond awful and reprehensible.