Recession or No, Where do We go?

[jmaccallum]

Recession or No, Where do We go?

Inflation is up to 9%. The Fed is hiking rates to slow the economy and slow demand. Unemployment is down to good levels. Wages are up significantly after the Pandemic. Supply chain deficiencies continue to plague, yet many corporate sales numbers are up, though profits are squeezed or gone. Consumers still have cash in their pockets from various stimulations. So, where do we need to go?

In the 70’s, inflation ran wildly free to mortgage rates of 18%. Nixon enacted his wage and price freeze only to have both jump dramatically when the freeze ended. Nobody wanted a recession, and so politicians were like a deer in the headlights. Paul Volcker, chairman of the Fed at the time, finally drove the country into not one, but two, major recessions at the time in order to break the cycle of inflation. Probably one of the biggest reasons Jimmy Carter never saw a second term.

The Fed, today, is seeking fiscal management that will result in a “soft landing.” An admirable ambition, but is it possible?

After the Pandemic, labor shortages were acute, requiring hiring incentives to include higher wages and bonuses. Where would this increase in business expense come from? Nowhere but higher prices. It has to. Unlike the government, businesses must make a profit in order to survive. We all know that, or do we?

Economics is complicated, but also simple. Supply versus demand drives a free market economy. However, manipulations are entirely possible. Hence the price of gas today.

Americans were handed a lot of money, in the form of Pandemic stimulus, with really no where to spend it. Everyone was locked down at home. So some remodeling was done, a dishwasher here and refrigerator or washer and dryer there. Things that could be ordered online and delivered with assurances of sterilized delivery. But the bulk of the on-hand cash sat pent up waiting for the “great re-opening.” And society re-opened. Consumers wanted to spend the cash burning a hole in their pocket. The only problem was, that as consumers had been locked down, so had businesses. Employees were gone, factories sat idle. Raw material orders had been put on hold or even canceled. Nobody cared to think that as long as it took to shut things down, it would take that long or longer to revamp the supply chain.

A perfect storm. And not many saw it coming. Higher wages, hiring bonuses, ample cash in the hands of consumers, people ready to get out and spend, shuttered supply chains that couldn’t supply goods to spend the money on. How could there not be inflation? Economics is complicated, but also simple. Demand outstripping supply. Inflation.

So what do we do now? Inflation is rearing it ugly head. Consumers have cash to spend. The fickle stock market is crying that the sky is falling, and the inverse yield curve for bonds is a reality. It does hurt that our portfolio that was worth $1.5 million is now worth $1 million, or less.

I say, let there be a recession of sorts. Cool the market and cool demand. Raise interest rates and slow the whole thing. Slow the housing market now and slow all other demand. It’s the only way to bust inflation. Sales will decline, wages will drop, unemployment will increase somewhat, and maybe consumers will continue to save rather than spend, just a little. But as with the other 37 recessions our economy has survived, we will survive this one, too.

The biggest question will be fuel prices. That’s a hard one to bust. Prices will probably never return to pre-level prices. Consumers will either absorb or look for alternatives. Hello, electric cars! Which brings a whole new fuel supply need and resulting debate. But maybe we’ll see Long Haul Truckers begin to be a dinosaur of a career that grandparents tell their grandkids about, as we look toward more communal distribution systems such as high efficiency rail, and local off-loading. Anyway, if it happens, it will happen in the background with few consumers involved nor aware. All of us just want the shelves filled at Walmart.

Any thoughts, and given the parameters, how to invest?

[Two Bills]

Recession? Inflation?
Very similar to the Common Cold.
Lots of remedies to ease the problem, but no definitive cure.
Goes away in its own good time!

[Two Bills]

Duplicate.

[Blueblaze]

This is a manufactured storm of your own government's dumbassitude. The LAST thing we need is more interventions. If we're ever going to get out of this hole, we just need the FED to quit digging.

How to fix it? Repeat this mantra until it finally sinks in:

"Everything the Government does works in reverse".

[Bogie Shooter]

What is the source of OP……copied from?

[Djean1981]

Exactly.

[Tvflguy]

Recession or No, Where do We go?

Inflation is up to 9%. The Fed is hiking rates to slow the economy and slow demand. Unemployment is down to good levels. Wages are up significantly after the Pandemic. Supply chain deficiencies continue to plague, yet many corporate sales numbers are up, though profits are squeezed or gone. Consumers still have cash in their pockets from various stimulations. So, where do we need to go?

In the 70’s, inflation ran wildly free to mortgage rates of 18%. Nixon enacted his wage and price freeze only to have both jump dramatically when the freeze ended. Nobody wanted a recession, and so politicians were like a deer in the headlights. Paul Volcker, chairman of the Fed at the time, finally drove the country into not one, but two, major recessions at the time in order to break the cycle of inflation. Probably one of the biggest reasons Jimmy Carter never saw a second term.

The Fed, today, is seeking fiscal management that will result in a “soft landing.” An admirable ambition, but is it possible?

After the Pandemic, labor shortages were acute, requiring hiring incentives to include higher wages and bonuses. Where would this increase in business expense come from? Nowhere but higher prices. It has to. Unlike the government, businesses must make a profit in order to survive. We all know that, or do we?

Economics is complicated, but also simple. Supply versus demand drives a free market economy. However, manipulations are entirely possible. Hence the price of gas today.

Americans were handed a lot of money, in the form of Pandemic stimulus, with really no where to spend it. Everyone was locked down at home. So some remodeling was done, a dishwasher here and refrigerator or washer and dryer there. Things that could be ordered online and delivered with assurances of sterilized delivery. But the bulk of the on-hand cash sat pent up waiting for the “great re-opening.” And society re-opened. Consumers wanted to spend the cash burning a hole in their pocket. The only problem was, that as consumers had been locked down, so had businesses. Employees were gone, factories sat idle. Raw material orders had been put on hold or even canceled. Nobody cared to think that as long as it took to shut things down, it would take that long or longer to revamp the supply chain.

A perfect storm. And not many saw it coming. Higher wages, hiring bonuses, ample cash in the hands of consumers, people ready to get out and spend, shuttered supply chains that couldn’t supply goods to spend the money on. How could there not be inflation? Economics is complicated, but also simple. Demand outstripping supply. Inflation.

So what do we do now? Inflation is rearing it ugly head. Consumers have cash to spend. The fickle stock market is crying that the sky is falling, and the inverse yield curve for bonds is a reality. It does hurt that our portfolio that was worth $1.5 million is now worth $1 million, or less.

I say, let there be a recession of sorts. Cool the market and cool demand. Raise interest rates and slow the whole thing. Slow the housing market now and slow all other demand. It’s the only way to bust inflation. Sales will decline, wages will drop, unemployment will increase somewhat, and maybe consumers will continue to save rather than spend, just a little. But as with the other 37 recessions our economy has survived, we will survive this one, too.

The biggest question will be fuel prices. That’s a hard one to bust. Prices will probably never return to pre-level prices. Consumers will either absorb or look for alternatives. Hello, electric cars! Which brings a whole new fuel supply need and resulting debate. But maybe we’ll see Long Haul Truckers begin to be a dinosaur of a career that grandparents tell their grandkids about, as we look toward more communal distribution systems such as high efficiency rail, and local off-loading. Anyway, if it happens, it will happen in the background with few consumers involved nor aware. All of us just want the shelves filled at Walmart.

Any thoughts, and given the parameters, how to invest?

Don’t mean to be crabby in the morning, but I dislike when a Poster either does their diatribe or copy/paste such loooonnnngggg things.

I’m retired and have time on my hands, but personally not for this. Unless the topic is of great interest I pass right thru. I’m done.

[retiredguy123]

I have no idea what the stock market will do. But, I just want to point out that, historically, the stock market has often bottomed out before the start of a recession, and continues to rise during the recession. That is because the stock market goes up and down based on predictions of future events, not based on current events. It is important to understand that concept.

[manaboutown]

Some people seem to be doing fine. I am taking a break from the heat over in Orange County, CA, staying cool in 72 degree ocean breezes for a couple more weeks. Midmorning Friday as I was driving on PCH in Newport Beach I noticed a brand new Rolls Royce Cullinan with temporary plates in the lane to the left of me and a Lamborghini Urus in the lane to my right. It feels to me the rich have been getting richer.

[gatorbill1]

I have no idea what the stock market will do. But, I just want to point out that, historically, the stock market has often bottomed out before the start of a recession, and continues to rise during the recession. That is because the stock market goes up and down based on predictions of future events, not based on current events. It is important to understand that concept.

Inflation will come down as inventory gets back to normal at suppliers, which it is.
Both parties probably gave us too much extra money to spend, but I am not giving it back. Increased interest rates will help along with increased inventory.

[RICH1]

The Stock Market will collapse like we have never seen before! Invest in America buy Land! Technology has ruined us…..

[coralway]

The Market has been very profitable since mid-July to those who pay attention. You could have a bundle by just shorting TSLA since early May, or buying AAPL calls. Heck, the technology sector as a whole is up over 11% in the last month.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

MOST of the "inflation" has been the rising cost of gasoline. There's your storm right there. Take a look at Exxon and Chevron's RECORD profits this past quarter.

They jacked up the prices because they could, and reaped the rewards while you were all too busy whining about politics to notice.

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

[jmaccallum]

What is the source of OP……copied from?

Not copied. All my own words from the tipity tapity typing of my own fingers. :024:

Sorry it was sooooo loooong. :bowdown:

:1rotfl:

[ElDiabloJoe]

Some people seem to be doing fine. I am taking a break from the heat over in Orange County, CA, staying cool in 72 degree ocean breezes for a couple more weeks. Midmorning Friday as I was driving on PCH in Newport Beach I noticed a brand new Rolls Royce Cullinan with temporary plates in the lane to the left of me and a Lamborghini Urus in the lane to my right. It feels to me the rich have been getting richer.

PCH through Newport, Laguna and north Dana Point (Monarch Beach) has always been a Saturday afternoon parade of high end cars making their way to and from Fashion Island. I've watched it for many years from various locales in those three areas.

[njbchbum]

snipped

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

[gatorbill1]

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

Just about anywhere near TV in Florida, probably not where you might be?. Saw it at Shell, WaWa etc.

[Caymus]

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

I use GasBuddy when I travel

Best Gas Prices & Local Gas Stations in The Villages, FL (https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/florida/the-villages)

[manaboutown]

PCH through Newport, Laguna and north Dana Point (Monarch Beach) has always been a Saturday afternoon parade of high end cars making their way to and from Fashion Island. I've watched it for many years from various locales in those three areas.

True that! On Saturdays just about any exotic sports cars one can think of and incredible hot rods cruise PCH. The hot rodders meet at some donut shop in Huntington Beach I think.

Anyway these were $$$ SUVs about 10:30 a.m. on a weekday out among the hoi polloi in the usual assortment of Mercedes Benzes, BMWs, Audis and such so they got my attention.

Back in 2007-2009 during the Great Recession I was living in Newport Beach and owned a Cayenne S. I remember taking it into the dealer on PCH which also sold Audis and Bentleys. Their lot must have had 20-30 Bentley Continental GTC convertibles in it. I had never seen the like of it as their lot inventory was usually just a few. So, I asked the service guy what was going on. His response: "Oh, those are the mortgage brokers' cars." Apparently that type of car was the "in vehicle" leased by mortgage brokers who were making money hand over fist at that time. Then in a flash, the boom time was over and they had to turn them in.

This recession feels different, so far anyway, and it is quite early. Katie bar the door. Anything can happen IMHO.

[nick demis]

MOST of the "inflation" has been the rising cost of gasoline. There's your storm right there. Take a look at Exxon and Chevron's RECORD profits this past quarter.

They jacked up the prices because they could, and reaped the rewards while you were all too busy whining about politics to notice.

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.
What about the previous several quarters that they lost money, or doesn't that count?

[Stu from NYC]

MOST of the "inflation" has been the rising cost of gasoline. There's your storm right there. Take a look at Exxon and Chevron's RECORD profits this past quarter.

They jacked up the prices because they could, and reaped the rewards while you were all too busy whining about politics to notice.

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

Way to simple analysis of where this inflation came from. Bottom line is too much money chasing too few goods.

Fed will cool down the economy by raising interest rates and watch how much housing prices will come down. Recession will be mild or severe but way to early to predict

[Stu from NYC]

What about the previous several quarters that they lost money, or doesn't that count?

You are right economics should be a required course in school.

[B-flat]

Here in Rhode island we are paying 4.34 per gallon give or take. BJs wholesale where we get gas is at $4.21 today. I checked Gas Buddy and seems in Ocala and TV it is in the $3.50 range.

[Topspinmo]

MOST of the "inflation" has been the rising cost of gasoline. There's your storm right there. Take a look at Exxon and Chevron's RECORD profits this past quarter.

They jacked up the prices because they could, and reaped the rewards while you were all too busy whining about politics to notice.

Prices have been coming down, they're still high but you can get a gallon of gas for just over $3.50 now, compared to the high of $4.85 a month and a half ago for the same octane level at the same gas station.

Stock market controls price of crud oil not Exxon or chevron or any other company.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Where is that gas station? Please advise.

BJ's on 441 across from The Villages Regional Hospital.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Stock market controls price of crud oil not Exxon or chevron or any other company.

Exxon on Friday said that its refining profits — earnings that come from processing crude oil into gasoline and other fuels — surged to $5.3 billion, from a loss of $865 million a year ago. At Chevron, refining profits were $3.5 billion in the second quarter, up from $839 million the year before.

Crude oil gets refined into other petroleum products. From a loss of $865M in 2021 to a profits of $5.3B is not the result of stock markets controlling the price of crude oil. It's the result of Exxon charging more for post-refinery petroleum. Gasoline at the pumps isn't the only product that comes from crude oil. Synthetic plastics are the result of the refining process as well, and plastics made from the refining process of crude oil are found in every household, every automobile, every computer, every cell phone, every company in the country. Even the handle of your desktop stapler is probably made from synthetic plastic.

This is part of the reason inflation is so high, because the oil companies have raised their prices on ALL petroleum products. Not just gasoline.

[retiredguy123]

Some people seem to be doing fine. I am taking a break from the heat over in Orange County, CA, staying cool in 72 degree ocean breezes for a couple more weeks. Midmorning Friday as I was driving on PCH in Newport Beach I noticed a brand new Rolls Royce Cullinan with temporary plates in the lane to the left of me and a Lamborghini Urus in the lane to my right. It feels to me the rich have been getting richer.
I'm doing fine, and I drive a Ford.

[krick093]

Real Estate Investment Trusts, Energy Partnerships and Corp preferred shares are all providing decent dividends without too much stock price volatility.

[Worldseries27]

where is that gas station? Please advise.
circle k 466a as of saturday

[Langwelld]

Had the Biden administration committed to an organized transition to green energy while keep our energy independence and all the other policies of the previous administration in place, none of this economic turmoil would have occurred.

Recession or No, Where do We go?

Inflation is up to 9%. The Fed is hiking rates to slow the economy and slow demand. Unemployment is down to good levels. Wages are up significantly after the Pandemic. Supply chain deficiencies continue to plague, yet many corporate sales numbers are up, though profits are squeezed or gone. Consumers still have cash in their pockets from various stimulations. So, where do we need to go?

In the 70’s, inflation ran wildly free to mortgage rates of 18%. Nixon enacted his wage and price freeze only to have both jump dramatically when the freeze ended. Nobody wanted a recession, and so politicians were like a deer in the headlights. Paul Volcker, chairman of the Fed at the time, finally drove the country into not one, but two, major recessions at the time in order to break the cycle of inflation. Probably one of the biggest reasons Jimmy Carter never saw a second term.

The Fed, today, is seeking fiscal management that will result in a “soft landing.” An admirable ambition, but is it possible?

After the Pandemic, labor shortages were acute, requiring hiring incentives to include higher wages and bonuses. Where would this increase in business expense come from? Nowhere but higher prices. It has to. Unlike the government, businesses must make a profit in order to survive. We all know that, or do we?

Economics is complicated, but also simple. Supply versus demand drives a free market economy. However, manipulations are entirely possible. Hence the price of gas today.

Americans were handed a lot of money, in the form of Pandemic stimulus, with really no where to spend it. Everyone was locked down at home. So some remodeling was done, a dishwasher here and refrigerator or washer and dryer there. Things that could be ordered online and delivered with assurances of sterilized delivery. But the bulk of the on-hand cash sat pent up waiting for the “great re-opening.” And society re-opened. Consumers wanted to spend the cash burning a hole in their pocket. The only problem was, that as consumers had been locked down, so had businesses. Employees were gone, factories sat idle. Raw material orders had been put on hold or even canceled. Nobody cared to think that as long as it took to shut things down, it would take that long or longer to revamp the supply chain.

A perfect storm. And not many saw it coming. Higher wages, hiring bonuses, ample cash in the hands of consumers, people ready to get out and spend, shuttered supply chains that couldn’t supply goods to spend the money on. How could there not be inflation? Economics is complicated, but also simple. Demand outstripping supply. Inflation.

So what do we do now? Inflation is rearing it ugly head. Consumers have cash to spend. The fickle stock market is crying that the sky is falling, and the inverse yield curve for bonds is a reality. It does hurt that our portfolio that was worth $1.5 million is now worth $1 million, or less.

I say, let there be a recession of sorts. Cool the market and cool demand. Raise interest rates and slow the whole thing. Slow the housing market now and slow all other demand. It’s the only way to bust inflation. Sales will decline, wages will drop, unemployment will increase somewhat, and maybe consumers will continue to save rather than spend, just a little. But as with the other 37 recessions our economy has survived, we will survive this one, too.

The biggest question will be fuel prices. That’s a hard one to bust. Prices will probably never return to pre-level prices. Consumers will either absorb or look for alternatives. Hello, electric cars! Which brings a whole new fuel supply need and resulting debate. But maybe we’ll see Long Haul Truckers begin to be a dinosaur of a career that grandparents tell their grandkids about, as we look toward more communal distribution systems such as high efficiency rail, and local off-loading. Anyway, if it happens, it will happen in the background with few consumers involved nor aware. All of us just want the shelves filled at Walmart.

Any thoughts, and given the parameters, how to invest?

[Dgodin]

A couple of things. Pent up demand wasn't driven as much by stimulus checks as by families who retained their jobs during the pandemic but had nowhere to spend their money. Now the genie is out of the bottle, much like the boom after WWII.

Truckers will lose their jobs but more probably to automation. Expect self driving trucks in the future.

I'd rather live through a recession marked by high employment and inflation than stable prices and high unemployment.

[rsmurano]

We are in a recession! The recession is not caused by just gas prices, have you seen the increases in beef, eggs, cars, used cars, and hundreds of other items? Many of these items have gone up much more than gas. People don’t realize that when oil production was slashed last year, this causing the thousands of items that are made from oil to go up in price. Look at diesel, everything that uses 18 wheelers for transport has to go up. How about salary increases, when you pay a burger flipper $15 hr, you will see everything on the menu increase in price, which means, the buying power when wages were $8 hr are the same when salaries increase to $15 hr; businesses and corporations will increase prices to compensate for the increase, so basically nobody is better off but the people in fixed incomes are the 1’s to get hurt.
As for the market, big deal the market was up 10% last month, Nasdaq is still down 20%, Dow 10%. These have been bear rallies, we are nowhere close to being done with declines.
People need to see what’s going on behind the scenes to see why things are much worse. Have you seen car loan delinquencies? 2008 all over again. Banks are loaning 160% of car value and people are taking advantage of it with the average car payment around $720 a month. Now with everything much more expensive, people can’t afford it and they stopped making car payments.
As for employment, you can’t keep looking in the rear view mirror, look at companies now forcing layoffs. When we get into a recession, companies stop hiring and start layoffs which is happening now.

[joelfmi]

You know who to blame for that

[rsmurano]

Yup!

[manaboutown]

I'm doing fine, and I drive a Ford.

I have noticed a couple of Ford GTs on PCH although they are quite rare, even there. They are awesome to say the least.2020 Ford GT Buyer's Guide: Reviews, Specs, Comparisons (https://www.motortrend.com/cars/ford/gt/2020/)

[retiredguy123]

I have noticed a couple of Ford GTs on PCH although they are quite rare, even there. They are awesome to say the least.2020 Ford GT Buyer's Guide: Reviews, Specs, Comparisons (https://www.motortrend.com/cars/ford/gt/2020/)
I have a 2017 Ford Escape that cost $27,000 new. I checked the price of a new one, and KBB says the fair price for the same 2022 model is $39,000, and you can no longer get a built-in GPS. I think I will keep it a few more years.

I didn't check the price of a Rolls Royce or Lamborghini. My dad would turn over in his grave if he thought I was driving one of those "cheap foreign cars".

[EscapedfromMO]

I have always stayed in the market. Never selling when going down Never trying to time the market. Buy and hold. Almost entirely investing in quality, high return mutual funds. I recently changed part of my portfolio to increase my income by purchasing high dividend ETF's. Specifically GlobalX covered call ETF's of the four major index's. All four are averaging about a 20% dividend paid monthly. Just my 2 cents.

[manaboutown]

I have a 2017 Ford Escape that cost $27,000 new. I checked the price of a new one, and KBB says the fair price for the same 2022 model is $39,000, and you can no longer get a built-in GPS. I think I will keep it a few more years.

I didn't check the price of a Rolls Royce or Lamborghini. My dad would turn over in his grave if he thought I was driving one of those "cheap foreign cars".

Well the base price on the RR Cunninan is over $350,000; the base price of the Lamborghini Urus is over $225,000. Both are way above my pay grade.

I am still driving a 2017 SUV. It runs and drives just fine. I bought it in late December of 2016 trading in a 2004 model I had owned 13 years.

[jmaccallum]

I have always stayed in the market. Never selling when going down Never trying to time the market. Buy and hold. Almost entirely investing in quality, high return mutual funds. I recently changed part of my portfolio to increase my income by purchasing high dividend ETF's. Specifically GlobalX covered call ETF's of the four major index's. All four are averaging about a 20% dividend paid monthly. Just my 2 cents.

I’m also very much liking dividends these days. My old man (RIP) always said when approaching retirement, build wealth, eliminate debt and look to dividends for a little additional income. I’ll have to check that out. Sounds like it might be worth a bit more than just 2 cents.

[retiredguy123]

Well the base price on the RR Cunninan is over $350,000; the base price of the Lamborghini Urus is over $225,000. Both are way above my pay grade.

I am still driving a 2017 SUV. It runs and drives just fine. I bought it in late December of 2016 trading in a 2004 model I had owned 13 years.
My dad would still call them "cheap foreign cars".

[prendymom]

ok thank you. :)

[jimjamuser]

I don't believe that it is possible to talk about inflation without talking about oil and gasoline. Oil and gasoline increases mean shipping cost increases added to any imported or domestically produced item that must be delivered to the consumer. To talk about oil price increases one needs to mention the Ukraine War, which has driven up the worldwide cost of oil and gasoline. Also, Russia has drastically cut back its supply of natural gas to Europe, which can add to worldwide inflation. The Russian attack on the Ukraine started the recent inflation cycle because WAR causes UNCERTAINTY about the supply of goods through world trade. Fear of less supply has driven prices upward.
........Since the Ukraine supplies about 40% of the world's wheat, the uncertainty of that continuing has driven many food products upward. It is predicted to cause food shortages and STARVATION in Africa - which could cause mass migration of starving people toward Europe. The resulting chaos could further drive prices upward.

The US economy is HIGHLY dependent and intertwined with the world economy (more than most people realize). So, there is a good chance that US inflation will remain high as compared to the period pre-war in Ukraine. And likely inflation will NOT settle down until sometime after that WAR is resolved. As far as the stock market goes, I moved to cash and bonds about 1 year ago. I will wait until both the US and the world get over this cycle of chaos before jumping back into the stock market

[jimjamuser]

This is a manufactured storm of your own government's dumbassitude. The LAST thing we need is more interventions. If we're ever going to get out of this hole, we just need the FED to quit digging.

How to fix it? Repeat this mantra until it finally sinks in:

"Everything the Government does works in reverse".
It will probably become a recession soon. The US economy depends on the world economy and visa-versa. The
US economy is NOT sealed in some hermetically sealed container. Oil and wheat prices affect all of the world's prices on about everything - goods and services. The US is ONLY 4% of the world's population.

The US government is NOT to blame. The more likely entity to blame would be the oil and gas industry and distributors than MIGHT ? have taken advantage and jacked the price of gasoline up. But, they may have just adjusted prices upward to include an UNCERTAINTY margin due to the war in the Ukraine.

[jimjamuser]

Stock market controls price of crud oil not Exxon or chevron or any other company.
Crude oil is a worldwide commodity, the price of which is (I believe) set by the COMMODITIES EXCHANGE located in London.

[Boomer]

Dividends pay you to wait.

Boomer

[jimjamuser]

Dividends pay you to wait.

Boomer
A company that is not making profits will cut dividends before it declares bankruptcy. Strong companies can continue to pay dividends - weak companies can not.

[manaboutown]

Just saw an Aston Martin SUV, a DBX 707, at Trader Joe's in Crystal Cove today. It looked both beautiful and impressive. I was unaware Aston Martin manufactured them. Apparently their SUVs now outsell their sports cars. It appears to be a bargain considering all it offers!

"Aston Martin DBX 707 Is a 697-HP V8-Powered Guilty Pleasure. As other automakers look to the future, Aston Martin is still giving us its past. Standard DBX already outsells all of Aston Martin's more traditional sports cars, and the 707 variant aims to be the world's fastest SUV, priced at $239,086.Apr 19, 2022"

From: Aston Martin DBX 707 Is a Guilty Pleasure (https://www.autoweek.com/news/sports-cars/a39749918/aston-martin-dbx-707-drive-review/)

[Stu from NYC]

A company that is not making profits will cut dividends before it declares bankruptcy. Strong companies can continue to pay dividends - weak companies can not.

A company that does not have the cash flow to cover dividends needs to cut them or end them or face financial disaster.

[RVgirl]

Not copied. All my own words from the tipity tapity typing of my own fingers. :024:

Sorry it was sooooo loooong. :bowdown:

:1rotfl:

Personally, I thought your post was very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[PugMom]

Exxon on Friday said that its refining profits — earnings that come from processing crude oil into gasoline and other fuels — surged to $5.3 billion, from a loss of $865 million a year ago. At Chevron, refining profits were $3.5 billion in the second quarter, up from $839 million the year before.

Crude oil gets refined into other petroleum products. From a loss of $865M in 2021 to a profits of $5.3B is not the result of stock markets controlling the price of crude oil. It's the result of Exxon charging more for post-refinery petroleum. Gasoline at the pumps isn't the only product that comes from crude oil. Synthetic plastics are the result of the refining process as well, and plastics made from the refining process of crude oil are found in every household, every automobile, every computer, every cell phone, every company in the country. Even the handle of your desktop stapler is probably made from synthetic plastic.

This is part of the reason inflation is so high, because the oil companies have raised their prices on ALL petroleum products. Not just gasoline.

she's correct, you guys. i just read the same thing in the foreign press. not too much we can do about it except reopen the pipeline

[PugMom]

It will probably become a recession soon. The US economy depends on the world economy and visa-versa. The
US economy is NOT sealed in some hermetically sealed container. Oil and wheat prices affect all of the world's prices on about everything - goods and services. The US is ONLY 4% of the world's population.

The US government is NOT to blame. The more likely entity to blame would be the oil and gas industry and distributors than MIGHT ? have taken advantage and jacked the price of gasoline up. But, they may have just adjusted prices upward to include an UNCERTAINTY margin due to the war in the Ukraine.

i believe we are in recession now, & have been for some months. just my opinion :shrug:

[Stu from NYC]

i believe we are in recession now, & have been for some months. just my opinion :shrug:

In grad school we were taught that two consecutive quarters of negative GNP growth is a recession. It is called by the national bureau of economic research.

[Keefelane66]

she's correct, you guys. i just read the same thing in the foreign press. not too much we can do about it except reopen the pipeline
The pipeline was never closed. A second pipeline was planned never started and the petroleum (Canadian tar sands) was for export to China.

[Caymus]

Another bad CPI. Fed should raise at least another 1%. Recession looks a little more likely.

Access Denied (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/bond-yields-dip-following-news-of-lower-inflation-expectations.html)