Where did the hurricanes go

[sounding]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

[MartinSE]

///

It's not even worth responding.

[RICH1]

Well said MartinSE

[JMintzer]

There's this thing called "weather"... It changes from year to year...

Some years there are a lot of hurricanes (most of which flounder around in the Atlantic Ocean until they dissipate)...

Other years, several of them make landfall and many think the sky is falling...

This year happens to be a lull...

[walterray1]

Don't jinx us.

[sounding]

Don't worry, "jinx" does not control our climate -- the sun does. The data clearly shows that.

[LuvNH]

It's not too late. S
season is through September and maybe longer now.

[sounding]

Even though hurricanes can occur any month of the year, the official season is from June 1 through November 30. It's also interesting to note that for the last 6 years, the global "surface & ocean" temperature linear trend is down -- slight cooling -- as taken from NOAA data.

[Bogie Shooter]

Even though hurricanes can occur any month of the year, the official season is from June 1 through November 30. It's also interesting to note that for the last 6 years, the global "surface & ocean" temperature linear trend is down -- slight cooling -- as taken from NOAA data.

Melting ice……

[sounding]

Yes, some is melting while others are growing, especially the ones the media ignores -- such as the Petermann glacier for one -- which is all discussed in the Village Weather Club. But more importantly, for the various solar generated heating cycles, there is a "lag" affect -- from months to years to centuries -- depending on the length of the solar cycle studied. The current "melting" is because we are still thawing out from the Little Ice Age -- plus the fish are liking it because they have more space to live in.

[Tvflguy]

If we had 4 hurricanes so far this season — or NONE some would yell out Climate Change!!! Can’t win.

[MartinSE]

If we had 4 hurricanes so far this season — or NONE some would yell out Climate Change!!! Can’t win.

If it hits 110F in Florida this summer, someone will yell out Summer! Can't win.

[Keefelane66]

Climate denial is not a river in Egypt

[Woodbear]

I am all for climate change that includes less hurricanes. Guess I will hold off on my coal burning lithium mining car for now. Time to go fill up the truck.

[asianthree]

Lighting seems to be a bigger problem this year. Bonus with no hurricane, the food banks will be happy this year, with all the kits that will need to be donated :D.

[Dlbonivich]

If you read a little about this year’s weather you would know that the Saharan Dust Storm is what is keeping the tropical patterns from forming this year.

[Worldseries27]

don't jinx us.
agreed. Sounds like he misses them

[Worldseries27]

if you read a little about this year’s weather you would know that the saharan dust storm is what is keeping the tropical patterns from forming this year.
every time i see an african animal documentary and i see the panting animals i envision the hurricanes that will be formed by the african heat

[crash]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

I think the people in the Midwest with flooding and west with drought would have a different opinion. You are talking weather not climate.

[me4vt]

So you had to open your mouth Right!!!!!!!

[me4vt]

November 30th is the END of hurricane season!

[sounding]

That is only a particle factor. The only reason the media mentions this is because to mention the other reasons blows a hole in the man-made global warming hoax. These reasons are periodically discussed in the Weather Club -- including unusually strong and broad trade winds -- which forced the ITCZ farther south where storms can't form because lack of Coriolis Force. This wind shift pattern change is being driven by a changing polar vortex which is giving Greenland record snowfalls. The ENSO and PDO are getting colder than forecast -- and the AMO is just starting to cool. Bottom line -- no one can forecast long term weather or climate because we barely understand what is going on now -- and CO2 is plant food.

[Larchap49]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

Not CO2 it is the sands blowing off the Sahara lowering the moisture content of the air coming off the African coast. Affecting weather world wide.

[FredJacobs]

Most people might say that you are inviting the "evil eye." The worst of the hurricane season is yet to come - the peak is somewhere around September 10th.

[sounding]

An "evil eye" has no scientific meaning. Data, however, does ... the data shows that the earth has been in a slow cooling trend for the past 6 years.

[sounding]

Everyone only knows to blame the dust because that's all the media will reveal -- including the Weather Channel. The big question is ... why so much dust for such a long time -- and I already mentioned the other factors involved. You always have to ask "why" something is happening -- and not just stop at the dust. Note, the "dust" did not push the ITCZ farther south and it does not affect the cooling ENSO and PDO cycles -- the SUN does that.

[GmaLisaG]

Historically most CAT 4-5 were I. September

[Bogie Shooter]

That is only a particle factor. The only reason the media mentions this is because to mention the other reasons blows a hole in the man-made global warming hoax. These reasons are periodically discussed in the Weather Club -- including unusually strong and broad trade winds -- which forced the ITCZ farther south where storms can't form because lack of Coriolis Force. This wind shift pattern change is being driven by a changing polar vortex which is giving Greenland record snowfalls. The ENSO and PDO are getting colder than forecast -- and the AMO is just starting to cool. Bottom line -- no one can forecast long term weather or climate because we barely understand what is going on now -- and CO2 is plant food.
:what:

[AZ SLIM]

Everyone only knows to blame the dust because that's all the media will reveal -- including the Weather Channel. The big question is ... why so much dust for such a long time -- and I already mentioned the other factors involved. You always have to ask "why" something is happening -- and not just stop at the dust. Note, the "dust" did not push the ITCZ farther south and it does not affect the cooling ENSO and PDO cycles -- the SUN does that.

What bugs me the most about this is the arrogance of our so called "Government Experts". I kept a newspaper article from a few months ago where they predicted an above average season. Then another article a few days ago where they tried to explain why there have been no hurricanes yet, but still going to be an above average season. They claim to be good at predicting seasonal weather, but why did they miss the prediction of the sandstorms along with sea temperature? Another example of government incompetent predictions and guidelines over the last few years. Why should anyone listen to anything the gov't "experts" say any longer? I worked for the feds for 30 years in a land management agency. Their decisions are rarely correct. Look at the huge wildfires now days. Totally a result of government bad predictions and decisions for 100 years.

[Joe C.]

Climate change has been around since the earth was created. Remember the Ice Age when half of the northern hemisphere was covered in mile deep ice? I hardly think that man was responsible. It's only in today's world where the "experts" have their say in the media, that it's become politicized. The powers that be always need to give the masses something to fear, resulting in their demands for what they feel is "security". When I was a kid, it was always the nuclear holocaust hanging over our heads. Then it was insecticides and agricultural chemicals that was going to hurt us (remember Alar in the late 60's). Now it's 'climate change", previously termed "global warming". Al Gore is still around, putting the screws to us.

[carlsondg]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

let's blame global warming - or is it global cooling - I forget

[jammaiora]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.
Hey "Know it All", how long have you lived in Florida? In September, 2017 The Villages got hit with a hurricane. September and October are the height of hurricanes for Florida. In addition, all weather patterns have drastically changed because of CLIMATE CHANGE/GLOBAL WARMING. Don't you look at global news on weather and the drought throughout the world, not to mention the flooding in cities and towns in areas of the US. You must be inhaling too much of your car's exhaust!

[The Chipster]

Great, another ignorant, head-in-the-sand, climate change denier. What happened to our appreciation of hard science in this country?

[jrandall]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

Hurricane Andrew happened 30 years ago this week. It was the first hurricane of the season and devastating to South Florida. So this isn’t the first time in 30 years we have not had a Hurricane. As of this reply we have two waves coming from Africa right now.

[Dgodin]

Just be glad we've had a quiet season so far. Florida insurance companies and homeowners may not be able to withstand a bad season considering the issues Insurers are having here.

[mlmarr]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.
give it time..weather warfare has plenty of time to cook one up.. watch the east .

[airstreamingypsy]

///

It's not even worth responding.

It is mind boggling though.

[Chuckndianne]

If we had 4 hurricanes so far this season — or NONE some would yell out Climate Change!!! Can’t win.
And those 4 were in the Pacific. Zero in the Atlantic.

[rsimpson]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

They only discuss 'weather events' when it helps THEIR Narrative. "crickets...."

[Two Bills]

.........and all of us will be long gone before the right answer is known!
So why worry?

[gmnirr]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

The bad guys used HARP, in Alaska, to generate the worst hurricanes. The good guys took the complex over awhile ago.

[Siegfried]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

Is that a metaphysical fact or a psychological fantasy?

[Worldseries27]

an "evil eye" has no scientific meaning. Data, however, does ... The data shows that the earth has been in a slow cooling trend for the past 6 years.
i seem to remember being taught about multiple ice ages. Planet heats up, planet cools down. The rest is the sky is falling entrepreneurs who want to make trillions preaching this mantra when our own weather forecasters can't successfully predict to 100% 3 days out

[cherylncliff]

Even though hurricanes can occur any month of the year, the official season is from June 1 through November 30. It's also interesting to note that for the last 6 years, the global "surface & ocean" temperature linear trend is down -- slight cooling -- as taken from NOAA data.

Sea surface temp is rising and has been rising for the last several decades

Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature | US EPA (https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature)

[Keefelane66]

I can fix any Hurricane with a Sharpie or fix it with a Nuclear Bomb. I sort of stole that statement.

[Keefelane66]

Sea surface temp is rising and has been rising for the last several decades

Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature | US EPA (https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature)
I don’t know where John is getting his figures from “ According to NOAA's 2021 Annual Climate Report the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit ( 0.08 degrees Celsius) per decade since 1880; however, the average rate of increase since 1981 (0.18°C / 0.32°F) has been more than twice that rate.Jun 28, 2022” sometimes you can just make stuff up!

[jimjamuser]

If you read a little about this year’s weather you would know that the Saharan Dust Storm is what is keeping the tropical patterns from forming this year.
The Sahara dust storms are over now. Now we are beginning to get topical waves coming off the coast of Africa. Same thing as from Irma in 2017. So, it's not over till it's over - that is...... the hurricane season. Too early to put away your MREs, water bottles, gas cans, and flashlights.

[jimjamuser]

What bugs me the most about this is the arrogance of our so called "Government Experts". I kept a newspaper article from a few months ago where they predicted an above average season. Then another article a few days ago where they tried to explain why there have been no hurricanes yet, but still going to be an above average season. They claim to be good at predicting seasonal weather, but why did they miss the prediction of the sandstorms along with sea temperature? Another example of government incompetent predictions and guidelines over the last few years. Why should anyone listen to anything the gov't "experts" say any longer? I worked for the feds for 30 years in a land management agency. Their decisions are rarely correct. Look at the huge wildfires now days. Totally a result of government bad predictions and decisions for 100 years.
I agree about "bad government decisions". I tend to think about the decision to encourage excess population.

[jimjamuser]

Hey "Know it All", how long have you lived in Florida? In September, 2017 The Villages got hit with a hurricane. September and October are the height of hurricanes for Florida. In addition, all weather patterns have drastically changed because of CLIMATE CHANGE/GLOBAL WARMING. Don't you look at global news on weather and the drought throughout the world, not to mention the flooding in cities and towns in areas of the US. You must be inhaling too much of your car's exhaust!
The long term 30 year forecast for the US is for record heat. Even record heat in Chicago and Wisconsin. And for sea level rise affecting coastal Florida and Annapolis, Maryland. That is for the next 30 years - you think this summer was HOT, just wait a few more years. If I were age 50 to 60, I would seriously consider selling here and moving somewhere further north or getting a summer home or spending the summer in an RV up north. Central Florida is no longer a great place to spend the summer! You can thank man-made Global Warming, pollution from IC engines, and over-population worldwide and in the US. And that's the TRUTH !

[B-flat]

///

it's not even worth responding.

d-i-t-t-o!!

[B-flat]

The only reason the media mentions this is because to mention the other reasons blows a hole in the man-made global warming hoax. CO2 is plant food.

:bigbow:

[Normal]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

I’m thinking things are pretty good down here in Florida. Last winter was exceptional. Keep it up.

[billethkid]

Media/talking point parroting VS informed knowledge.

____________________________________________
:censored:

[DaleDivine]

I’m thinking things are pretty good down here in Florida. Last winter was exceptional. Keep it up.

:agree: :BigApplause::BigApplause:

[midiwiz]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

where is that icon..... hmmmm..... you know the one with the guy banging his head against the wall.....

[jimkerr]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

Another dumb post.

[Vermilion Villager]

Yes, some is melting while others are growing, especially the ones the media ignores -- such as the Petermann glacier for one -- which is all discussed in the Village Weather Club. But more importantly, for the various solar generated heating cycles, there is a "lag" affect -- from months to years to centuries -- depending on the length of the solar cycle studied. The current "melting" is because we are still thawing out from the Little Ice Age -- plus the fish are liking it because they have more space to live in.

Anybody know where I can get my computer repaired? I just spilled my morning coffee on the keyboard laughing so hard!!!! :a20::1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[Vermilion Villager]

Yes, some is melting while others are growing, especially the ones the media ignores -- such as the Petermann glacier for one -- which is all discussed in the Village Weather Club. But more importantly, for the various solar generated heating cycles, there is a "lag" affect -- from months to years to centuries -- depending on the length of the solar cycle studied. The current "melting" is because we are still thawing out from the Little Ice Age -- plus the fish are liking it because they have more space to live in.

Really Sounding?!?!?!?! Maybe you all in the Village Weather Club/Flat Earth Society should take a look see at this then huh?? NASA - Ice Island Calves off Petermann Glacier (https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/petermann-calve.html#:~:text=On%20Aug.,the%20northwestern%20 coast%20of%20Greenland).

[jimjamuser]

Really Sounding?!?!?!?! Maybe you all in the Village Weather Club/Flat Earth Society should take a look see at this then huh?? NASA - Ice Island Calves off Petermann Glacier (https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/petermann-calve.html#:~:text=On%20Aug.,the%20northwestern%20 coast%20of%20Greenland).
Yes! Dazzle them with REAL knowledge. Kudos!

[kkingston57]

Not CO2 it is the sands blowing off the Sahara lowering the moisture content of the air coming off the African coast. Affecting weather world wide.

Without this being said on TV, this dust has appeared to me to be much worse this year. Several weeks ago, on a clear day, the sky looked more brown than blue.

[jimjamuser]

i seem to remember being taught about multiple ice ages. Planet heats up, planet cools down. The rest is the sky is falling entrepreneurs who want to make trillions preaching this mantra when our own weather forecasters can't successfully predict to 100% 3 days out
Ice ages are NOT meaningful in this situation. It is only in the last 50 years that man made POLLUTION from overpopulation and IC engines and other sources has been powerful enough to increase Global Warming. The NEXT 30 years are predicted to have RECORD heat in the US. That will cause lots of problems, such as owning beachfront property. This year, we are seeing insurance companies pulling out of Florida and raising rates. Insurance companies are VERY practical about their future predictions - they are NOT just crying WOLF for no good reason. Conclusion......man-made Global Warming is REAL !!!!!

[Kenswing]

Ice ages are NOT meaningful in this situation. It is only in the last 50 years that man made POLLUTION from overpopulation and IC engines and other sources has been powerful enough to increase Global Warming. The NEXT 30 years are predicted to have RECORD heat in the US. That will cause lots of problems, such as owning beachfront property. This year, we are seeing insurance companies pulling out of Florida and raising rates. Insurance companies are VERY practical about their future predictions - they are NOT just crying WOLF for no good reason. Conclusion......man-made Global Warming is REAL !!!!!

Relax. Mother Nature is good at protecting herself. If she doesn't like what we're doing she'll just get rid of us. Nothing you can do about it. But I know how much you like to pontificate, so carry on..

[jimjamuser]

Relax. Mother Nature is good at protecting herself. If she doesn't like what we're doing she'll just get rid of us. Nothing you can do about it. But I know how much you like to pontificate, so carry on..
Some philosopher several centuries ago said that population will be controlled by wars and pestilence. Covid killed over one million people in the US recently. And the US is in a proxy war with Russia that could lead to a World War that could kill many more MILLIONS. Those factors could act to control population. Increased Global Warming predicted for the next 30 years could produce more and deadlier HURRICANES in the US and the world, effectively killing many more people. Global Warming could cause mass climate migration and the resulting clash of groups and nations - resulting in MORE deaths.

The psychology of the US state of the union can be seen in the fact that the last 3 or 4 US generations have stated a worry that their next, future generation will be less well off than they were. This is proof positive of US UNRESOLVED problems affecting society. Global Warming and potential increased destruction to life and property in Florida caused by HURRICANES are just TWO of the unresolved problems that US leaders have allowed to increase and fester. Problems that go back about 50 years or more. Outsourcing and willful destruction of unions have decimated the middle class and driven the US to the top position of wealth disparity among 1st world countries. The world AND our enemies see how weak the US has become. We used to lead, now we are sliding backwards.

[MillerD]

Season ends Nov 30th. Resident since 1969

[Worldseries27]

season ends nov 30th. Resident since 1969
your sort of our adam/eve

[Nucky]

I'm just glad that a certain poster is not doing his Smokey the Bear duties in the area above the land of The Fruits & Nuts on the west coast.

If there was ever a bad subject to bring up at this time of the year then this would be it and the timing was just magnificent. Thanks for NOTHING! Hurricanes are not really the best subject to bring up although it is your right to do so!

[Taltarzac725]

Some philosopher several centuries ago said that population will be controlled by wars and pestilence. Covid killed over one million people in the US recently. And the US is in a proxy war with Russia that could lead to a World War that could kill many more MILLIONS. Those factors could act to control population. Increased Global Warming predicted for the next 30 years could produce more and deadlier HURRICANES in the US and the world, effectively killing many more people. Global Warming could cause mass climate migration and the resulting clash of groups and nations - resulting in MORE deaths.

The psychology of the US state of the union can be seen in the fact that the last 3 or 4 US generations have stated a worry that their next, future generation will be less well off than they were. This is proof positive of US UNRESOLVED problems affecting society. Global Warming and potential increased destruction to life and property in Florida caused by HURRICANES are just TWO of the unresolved problems that US leaders have allowed to increase and fester. Problems that go back about 50 years or more. Outsourcing and willful destruction of unions have decimated the middle class and driven the US to the top position of wealth disparity among 1st world countries. The world AND our enemies see how weak the US has become. We used to lead, now we are sliding backwards.

People cannot seem to agree on the science so often little gets accomplished. Or two steps ahead and often four back.

[ShaSha]

If you read a little about this year’s weather you would know that the Saharan Dust Storm is what is keeping the tropical patterns from forming this year.

Yes. We read and we listen.
Lucky so far. September and October - fingers crossed!!!

[ShaSha]

Not worth time and trouble. Not even funny!!!

[Taltarzac725]

Ice ages are NOT meaningful in this situation. It is only in the last 50 years that man made POLLUTION from overpopulation and IC engines and other sources has been powerful enough to increase Global Warming. The NEXT 30 years are predicted to have RECORD heat in the US. That will cause lots of problems, such as owning beachfront property. This year, we are seeing insurance companies pulling out of Florida and raising rates. Insurance companies are VERY practical about their future predictions - they are NOT just crying WOLF for no good reason. Conclusion......man-made Global Warming is REAL !!!!!

Weather News -- ScienceDaily (https://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/weather/)

I do find the links that seem to be backed up with studies by reliable scholars better than some other resources.

Maybe we can dig for the best ones.

[Woodbear]

The temperatures of this current inter-glacial period is amongst the lowest ever measured. The planet has been much warmer w/o man ever present. All anyone needs to know we live on a dynamic, ever-changing planet.

[jimjamuser]

The temperatures of this current inter-glacial period is amongst the lowest ever measured. The planet has been much warmer w/o man ever present. All anyone needs to know we live on a dynamic, ever-changing planet.
If people lived for 150,000 years, then this chart would be informative.

[Taltarzac725]

If people lived for 150,000 years, then this chart would be informative.

That would be one long beard and the moustache would reach from Boston to Seattle if you were standing in Omaha .

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.
Jinx

[asianthree]

Next week looks like your concern of no named storms, May change.

So hang on to your hats, and get in your golf, before the tunnels are swamped, and the course is too wet.

Then get to the grocery and sweep the shelves :a040:

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Reminds me of this clip. lol

https://youtu.be/v5N3fKVz-Z4?t=84

be careful what ya ask for.

[sounding]

While flaming cars are interesting -- this season's hurricane season is way below expectations -- which is partially because the earth has been cooling for the last 7 years. Worse yet, NOAA refuses to acknowledge that the Euro Model has been far more correct about Ian than the American GFS model -- this is because the American model still wrongly believes CO2 controls the climate. You can watch the Euro model out-perform the GFS via Windy.Com

[Keefelane66]

I saw about 10 different spaghetti models early this morning now about 5 approaching storm may hit between Ft Myers and Tampa.
No one's talking CO2 but you.

[billethkid]

Weather forecasting is as accurate as measuring clouds.

[sounding]

That's because the media has done a great job of hiding NOAA's suicidal belief that CO2 controls weather and climate. This is why the GFS has been very wrong on Ian, while the Euro model has been more accurate from the start. Here is some background about the failing GFS modeling system, which the media ignores -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvcoX2N2g1E

[sounding]

We can measure clouds -- but we can not accurate duplicate them in computer models. Worse yet, is when you add CO2 as contributing factor -- the models fail even faster.

[jimbomaybe]

let's blame global warming - or is it global cooling - I forget
Ether way you are right,, just a matter of waiting for the proper time,, remember when we were told ,, by experts that by now we would be freezing starving ,in the dark??

[MorTech]

For the first time in 30 years -- no hurricanes at this date. It's amazing how well increasing CO2 has been decreasing tropical storm activity.

Not exactly right...Higher global temperatures *cause* higher atmospheric CO2 and H2O which causes decreased temperature deltas in the atmosphere which diminishes turbulent weather. Global temperature and atmospheric CO2 is very low compared to 600K year average...By about 9F from optimal for biolife.

[sounding]

Bingo - you are correct. My CO2 comment was meant to get folks thinking about the absurdities of man-made climate change. Yes, a warmer world does reduce the Equator-Pole temperature gradient, which in turn reduces severe weather -- this is because the Poles warm faster than the Equator. You are also correct in that we are currently experiencing very low CO2 levels compared to the past, which is why greenhouses pump in extra CO2 to make plant growth more efficient. Due to our poor public climate education system, very few realize that we are in 2.5 million year Pleistocene Ice Age, where most of earth's history had no polar ice caps. This and much more is discussed in the Villages Weather Club ... The Villages Weather Club (https://www.theweatherclubvillages.com)

[Keefelane66]

Ether way you are right,, just a matter of waiting for the proper time,, remember when we were told ,, by experts that by now we would be freezing starving ,in the dark??
Yes and Soundings is still trying to convince us summers are getting cooler

[sounding]

Yes -- that is correct -- the summers are getting cooler. It is obvious to those who look at data. Just go to the "Florida Climate Center" and look at the trend of "maximum" temperatures. But that's just in Florida. It can also be seen at the national level just by looking at archived data stored by NOAA -- all located at Asheville, NC -- where I used to coordinate with while in the Air Force. For those who don't have the time to download, plot, and analyze the data, here is a short video of what you'll find ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs-K_tadveI

[kkingston57]

While flaming cars are interesting -- this season's hurricane season is way below expectations -- which is partially because the earth has been cooling for the last 7 years. Worse yet, NOAA refuses to acknowledge that the Euro Model has been far more correct about Ian than the American GFS model -- this is because the American model still wrongly believes CO2 controls the climate. You can watch the Euro model out-perform the GFS via Windy.Com

Agree the EURO Models out perform the GFS Models. Models are built/programmed based upon atmospheric condtions and sea water temperagture at the time of the storm with super computers. Never heard that these models has anything which would link direct affect of CO2 on present condions.

Original post now ironic. Florida is now facing 155 mph storm and if track stayed at or near Tampa, people in TV would be facing possible catastrophic damages.

[sounding]

True, but only for those who choose to live along nature's playground -- the sea shore. This is why we live in TV land. The Euro currently says this ... Ian is forecast to pass by TV midnight Thursday as it transitions from Cat 1 to TS as it hits Daytona Beach. Remember, Irma passed us a a weakening Cat 1 and changed to a TS after moving farther north. Winds for us are forecast sustained 35 mph and gusts to 60 mph. Plus, during Irma, we were on the right side (or dirty side) during its passage -- while with Ian we will be on the weaker side (the left side of movement). If the model holds true, I expect no worse conditions than what we had with Irma.

[tvbound]

Yes -- that is correct -- the summers are getting cooler. It is obvious to those who look at data. Just go to the "Florida Climate Center" and look at the trend of "maximum" temperatures. But that's just in Florida. It can also be seen at the national level just by looking at archived data stored by NOAA -- all located at Asheville, NC -- where I used to coordinate with while in the Air Force. For those who don't have the time to download, plot, and analyze the data, here is a short video of what you'll find ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs-K_tadveI


"Yes -- that is correct -- the summers are getting cooler. It is obvious to those who look at data. "


Umm, no, that is totally incorrect. Suggest more research with legitimate sources - not just from climate denier/conspiracy sites.

U.S. sweltered through third-hottest summer on record | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-sweltered-through-third-hottest-summer-on-record)

[KAM+6]

True, but only for those who choose to live along nature's playground -- the sea shore. This is why we live in TV land. The Euro currently says this ... Ian is forecast to pass by TV midnight Thursday as it transitions from Cat 1 to TS as it hits Daytona Beach. Remember, Irma passed us a a weakening Cat 1 and changed to a TS after moving farther north. Winds for us are forecast sustained 35 mph and gusts to 60 mph. Plus, during Irma, we were on the right side (or dirty side) during its passage -- while with Ian we will be on the weaker side (the left side of movement). If the model holds true, I expect no worse conditions than what we had with Irma.

What about the rainfall totals to an already saturated ground and are the retention ponds at near capacity? What say you.

[Keefelane66]

"Yes -- that is correct -- the summers are getting cooler. It is obvious to those who look at data. "


Umm, no, that is totally incorrect. Suggest more research with legitimate sources - not just from climate denier/conspiracy sites.

U.S. sweltered through third-hottest summer on record | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-sweltered-through-third-hottest-summer-on-record)
The answer you will get is thermometer was in wrong location to accurately record temperature.

[sounding]

Instead of believing the "narrative" just try plotting the "data" for yourself. There is no conspiracy with data. Here is the Florida Climate Center data ... Downloadable Data - Florida Climate Center (https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/climate-data-access-tools/downloadable-data) And here is the national NOAA data site ... Index of /pub/data/ushcn/v2.5 (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5/) Let me know what you find.

[KAM+6]

What about the rainfall totals to an already saturated ground and are the retention ponds at near capacity? What say you.


Soundings, maybe you missed my question. The concern in TV is the rainfall amount projected to be 13 inches.

[sounding]

Sounds good to me. SE Florida is still in a drought. Don't forget to turn your lawn sprinkles off.

[Velvet]

I guess whoever was looking for more hurricanes in TV had their prayer answered. I just love that no matter what happens, we can always blame it on climate change. And then, of course, blame climate change on people.

[KAM+6]

Sounds good to me. SE Florida is still in a drought. Don't forget to turn your lawn sprinkles off.


But but but!!This is not SE Florida. Hopefully we can accommodate 13" of water.

[oldtimes]

I guess whoever was looking for more hurricanes in TV had their prayer answered. I just love that no matter what happens, we can always blame it on climate change. And then, of course, blame climate change on people.

Exactly, they are trying to tell us that hurricanes have gotten worse because of climate change but if you google strongest hurricanes you will see this is not a new occurrence it is just hyped more.

Strongest U.S. Hurricanes

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana;
Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana;
Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida;
1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas;
1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

[tuccillo]

Numerical Weather Prediction models include subroutines to compute the heating (or cooling) rates from longwave and shortwave radiation. The longwave codes account for the effects of CO2 and the CO2 level in an input (along with specific humidity, temperature, modeled clouds, etc.). I don't recall what value I used when I was doing model development at NCEP. CO2 is an important part of the radiative transfer calculations that are performed in these codes. A previous post that suggesting some sinister element to the inclusion of CO2 in the radiative transfer calculations is comical, at best. The ECMWF IFS model (in it's many versions) has had a small performance advantage over the NCEP GFS code (in it's many versions) for the last 40 years as measured by the 500mb anomaly correlation coefficient. Both models have improved over the years at about the same rate. However, it is a little bit like comparing apples to oranges. The IFS has a later data dump and I believe they dedicate more computing resources to the simulation than NCEP because NCEP has many more modeling requirements.

Agree the EURO Models out perform the GFS Models. Models are built/programmed based upon atmospheric condtions and sea water temperagture at the time of the storm with super computers. Never heard that these models has anything which would link direct affect of CO2 on present condions.

Original post now ironic. Florida is now facing 155 mph storm and if track stayed at or near Tampa, people in TV would be facing possible catastrophic damages.

[oldtimes]

Numerical Weather Prediction models include subroutines to compute the heating (or cooling) rates from longwave and shortwave radiation. The longwave codes account for the effects of CO2 and the CO2 level in an input (along with specific humidity, temperature, modeled clouds, etc.). I don't recall what value I used when I was doing model development at NCEP. CO2 is an important part of the radiative transfer calculations that are performed in these codes. A previous post that suggesting some sinister element to the inclusion of CO2 in the radiative transfer calculations is comical, at best. The ECMWF IFS model (in it's many versions) has had a small performance advantage over the NCEP GFS code (in it's many versions) for the last 40 years as measured by the 500mb anomaly correlation coefficient. Both models have improved over the years at about the same rate. However, it is a little bit like comparing apples to oranges. The IFS has a later data dump and I believe they dedicate more computing resources to the simulation than NCEP because NCEP has many more modeling requirements.

So nice to see you posting. I always appreciate your insights as well as Mike’s Weather Page when we have a hurricane.

[Velvet]

Numerical Weather Prediction models include subroutines to compute the heating (or cooling) rates from longwave and shortwave radiation. The longwave codes account for the effects of CO2 and the CO2 level in an input (along with specific humidity, temperature, modeled clouds, etc.). I don't recall what value I used when I was doing model development at NCEP. CO2 is an important part of the radiative transfer calculations that are performed in these codes. A previous post that suggesting some sinister element to the inclusion of CO2 in the radiative transfer calculations is comical, at best. The ECMWF IFS model (in it's many versions) has had a small performance advantage over the NCEP GFS code (in it's many versions) for the last 40 years as measured by the 500mb anomaly correlation coefficient. Both models have improved over the years at about the same rate. However, it is a little bit like comparing apples to oranges. The IFS has a later data dump and I believe they dedicate more computing resources to the simulation than NCEP because NCEP has many more modeling requirements.

Just when you’re needed most, you’re back! :)

[kkingston57]

Exactly, they are trying to tell us that hurricanes have gotten worse because of climate change but if you google strongest hurricanes you will see this is not a new occurrence it is just hyped more.

Strongest U.S. Hurricanes

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana;
Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana;
Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida;
1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas;
1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

Noted Charlie and Andew. Both were fast moving small storms. Ian just hit with 155 mph and affected much larger area of Florida and was in SW Florida for hours. No matter what happens, $ amounts of damages will increase exponentially due to more and more people moving into Florida.