New house building will now slow down

[Lottoguy]

Look for ALL BUILDING MATERIAL used in new home construction to become harder to acquire. Priority will be give to those folks who had their homes destroyed or damaged by hurricane Ian.
This is will not effect current homes under contract since those materials are already on site or at the point of delivery. But, new contracts will have a much longer delivery time for that new house. So, don't expect new homes in just a few months. This hurricane really changed the game on new homes in Florida.

[Altavia]

Really - priority given by who?

Likely The Villages has long term contracts. The small builders will be hurt most.

[RICH1]

This slowdown you predict should
Increase the Value of our Homes..
many will move to the Established Inland Retirement Communities.

[Stu from NYC]

Really - priority given by who?

Likely The Villages has long term contracts. The small builders will be hurt most.

Agreed, unless govt takes control of purchasing building supplies business will go on as usual and with scarce supplies houses will cost more to build

[asianthree]

Look for ALL BUILDING MATERIAL used in new home construction to become harder to acquire. Priority will be give to those folks who had their homes destroyed or damaged by hurricane Ian.
This is will not effect current homes under contract since those materials are already on site or at the point of delivery. But, new contracts will have a much longer delivery time for that new house. So, don't expect new homes in just a few months. This hurricane really changed the game on new homes in Florida.

Unless someone has cash up front, many will be waiting for many months, before insurance and skilled workers start working on those homes. Those that can be repaired quickly will be first, those who are a total loss, will have to find builders to start a new project. That could take years.
Those whose insurance will not cover a rebuild, will be looking at selling their lot. Developer shouldn’t have issues considering they probably have contracts for building materials for multiple years

[Babubhat]

Unless someone has cash up front, many will be waiting for many months, before insurance and skilled workers start working on those homes. Those that can be repaired quickly will be first, those who are a total loss, will have to find builders to start a new project. That could take years.
Those whose insurance will not cover a rebuild, will be looking at selling their lot. Developer shouldn’t have issues considering they probably have contracts for building materials for multiple years

It’s a southwest Florida issue. Nothing more.

[Keefelane66]

The Villages is not the Center of the Universe maybe yours not mine.
Most people in the affected SW Florida area stated on the news were underinsured and only 80% did not have flood insurance. Just the cleanup will take months. Infrastructure repair to the barrier islands will take years just look a road construction in our immediate area.

[dewilson58]

The sky is falling, The sky is falling.


Materials will only be used for hurricane damage IF there is labor to construct.

The labor will not jus magically appear.....it will be transferred from other projects.

From a Macro view, materials will follow labor and be reassigned.

The Villages' labor is fairly fixed, so the material flow will continue.

But I do love, The sky is falling, The sky is falling posts.

:gc:

[Stu from NYC]

The sky is falling, The sky is falling.


Materials will only be used for hurricane damage IF there is labor to construct.

The labor will not jus magically appear.....it will be transferred from other projects.

From a Macro view, materials will follow labor and be reassigned.

The Villages' labor is fairly fixed, so the material flow will continue.

But I do love, The sky is falling, The sky is falling posts.

:gc:

Rumor has it sky fell awhile ago

[village dreamer]

maybe the 7% mortgage rates will slow things down a bit ?

[billethkid]

Hmmmmnnnn!
I wonder what the trend here in TV for the last 25 years would lead one to conclude!!?
I remember the last time new home building in TV 'SLOWED DOWN" TO 150 PER MONTH.

[Toymeister]

Look for ALL BUILDING MATERIAL used in new home construction to become harder to acquire. Priority will be give to those folks who had their homes destroyed or damaged by hurricane Ian.


According to KH, speaking about the victims of Ian, priority should be given based upon socioeconomic status and not actual need. If this comes to pass this would change who receives the building materials.

[Stu from NYC]

According to KH, speaking about the victims of Ian, priority should be given based upon socioeconomic status and not actual need. If this comes to pass this would change who receives the building materials.

Discrimination is just plain wrong.

[VApeople]

Discrimination is just plain wrong.

Unless they discriminate in my favor.

[VApeople]

maybe the 7% mortgage rates will slow things down a bit ?

No, the building will not slow down until interest rates are 13% like they were in the good old days of 1980.

[vintageogauge]

55% of the homes sold here are cash deals,

[ithos]

No, the building will not slow down until interest rates are 13% like they were in the good old days of 1980.

The difference this time is that the home prices are much higher.

Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio (US)

In 1984 it was 4.

Now it is almost 7.

So the housing market will collapse way before the interest rate gets that high especially during a recession.

[Iowatransplant]

It won’t just be in Florida or the SE. I owned a lumberyard in Iowa for almost 18 years. Natural disasters, especially hurricanes, affect material prices across the country for many months. Supply and demand dictate the prices and right now it is high demand and Llosa supply!

Pretty sure TV has large quantities booked ahead so impact for them will not be as great. The little guys are the ones who will get caught in the mess and suffer.

[RICH1]

maybe the 7% mortgage rates will slow things down a bit ?
But most our age are Cash buyers! The cheap money dried up!

[midiwiz]

Agreed, unless govt takes control of purchasing building supplies business will go on as usual and with scarce supplies houses will cost more to build

yeah that's right make sure the government takes control ..... yeesh.. yet another way to screw this up. How is it that anyone thinks that's the best answer???

but I digress..... that comment actually wasn't political it was logical

[jimbomaybe]

Rumor has it sky fell awhile ago

Th world officially ended 15 Aug 2021, however they can not turn off the lights until the lawyers finish and file the needed paper work, projected time table for that will be late Nov 2023

[me4vt]

North to Tennessee and NC, mainly Tennessee due to the taxes! This happened big time back in 2004.

[me4vt]

Nope but, over 90% think they are!

[Altavia]

Counterbalanced by the slow down in new home construction elsewhere due to interest rates hikes.

Lumber cost that has recently dropped due to this.

[La lamy]

I agree that new builds may take longer because of both labor and material scarcity. I feel so sad for all those whose homes were devastated to shreds. It'll be years before all is normal again. And like a friend of ours, they may give up on Florida coastline altogether.

[Stu from NYC]

yeah that's right make sure the government takes control ..... yeesh.. yet another way to screw this up. How is it that anyone thinks that's the best answer???

but I digress..... that comment actually wasn't political it was logical

BTW I am certainly not an advocate of more govt interference in business, all they will do is mess things up

[Stu from NYC]

It won’t just be in Florida or the SE. I owned a lumberyard in Iowa for almost 18 years. Natural disasters, especially hurricanes, affect material prices across the country for many months. Supply and demand dictate the prices and right now it is high demand and Llosa supply!

Pretty sure TV has large quantities booked ahead so impact for them will not be as great. The little guys are the ones who will get caught in the mess and suffer.

Would bet that if lumber prices in general up builders would price new homes to market conditions

[Oceancouple]

We lived on a barrier island for 26 years. In 2004 became a nightmare for us. Our home was damaged 60 percent, not only did we have that cost but, additional cost of repairing our condo community. Assessments were crazy and many people, were unable to pay assessments and sold. Some condos costs ranged from 10,000 100,000 which were due within 6 months to rebuild. This hurricane has caused much more damage than we had, and my heart goes out to those folks. But living on or near the water has risks and you have to understand the consequences. Not only costs to rebuild but changes in building codes and insurance.
One of the biggest reasons we moved here.

[golfing eagles]

According to KH, speaking about the victims of Ian, priority should be given based upon socioeconomic status and not actual need. If this comes to pass this would change who receives the building materials.

Actually, I'm going to give VP giggles a break on this one. What she actually said was just as stupid (te-he-he), but not specifically directed at Ian recovery. Her premise was that small countries with "people of color" bear an unfair burden in floods from hurricanes (which she blames on global warming, of course), and therefore should get priority in rebuilding. Some people have extrapolated that to mean poor neighborhoods in SW Florida should get priority as well. In all fairness, she probably was thinking that, but didn't say it. (left-handed compliment finished:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:)

[OhioBuckeye]

Lottoguy, building material harder to acquire, look at the prices. Some places a 8’x4’ sheet of plywood is $100.

[Stu from NYC]

Actually, I'm going to give VP giggles a break on this one. What she actually said was just as stupid (te-he-he), but not specifically directed at Ian recovery. Her premise was that small countries with "people of color" bear an unfair burden in floods from hurricanes (which she blames on global warming, of course), and therefore should get priority in rebuilding. Some people have extrapolated that to mean poor neighborhoods in SW Florida should get priority as well. In all fairness, she probably was thinking that, but didn't say it. (left-handed compliment finished:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:)

She thinks? Who knew?

[joelfmi]

Where are you getting your facts from according to the press, I heard just the reverse.

[jimjamuser]

Unless someone has cash up front, many will be waiting for many months, before insurance and skilled workers start working on those homes. Those that can be repaired quickly will be first, those who are a total loss, will have to find builders to start a new project. That could take years.
Those whose insurance will not cover a rebuild, will be looking at selling their lot. Developer shouldn’t have issues considering they probably have contracts for building materials for multiple years
I imagine that many of the people in a barrier island or Fort Meyers whose home was a total loss will end up selling their lot. Insurance won't make them 100% whole and new construction will have to be up to new safety standards, like a stilt-type elevated basement - which will cost more than the original house. And the cost of materials will be higher. So, only someone with a high-paying job in that area, plus large savings and/or excellent credit will be able to rebuild.

That probably means somewhat of a migration to north central Florida or further north for many. People currently living up north that are ready for retirement soon will be seeing the televised scenes of destruction in Florida, which could discourage their moving to Florida. So, as far as The Villages goes, it looks like there will be 2 opposing forces determining new resident growth. It will be hard to tell which way that will go? And there is also the prospect of a possible recession in 2023?

[chrissy2231]

We will be paying a BAZILLION dollars on our home owners even if we didn't have a claim.

[Laker14]

We will be paying a BAZILLION dollars on our home owners even if we didn't have a claim.

I think you mean a "Brazillion" dollars....what with inflation and all....

[Margterrymcg]

Look for ALL BUILDING MATERIAL used in new home construction to become harder to acquire. Priority will be give to those folks who had their homes destroyed or damaged by hurricane Ian.
This is will not effect current homes under contract since those materials are already on site or at the point of delivery. But, new contracts will have a much longer delivery time for that new house. So, don't expect new homes in just a few months. This hurricane really changed the game on new homes in Florida.

I expect a migration of homeowners in South Florida northwards to The Villages to put some ground between themselves and landfall of future hurricanes

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

A large influx of residents to central Florida is expected as, after experiencing Ian, many people that live on the coasts are going to want to move inland.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increase in building in The Villages.

[Robbb]

Agreed, unless govt takes control of purchasing building supplies business will go on as usual and with scarce supplies houses will cost more to build

Your kidding, right?