Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Years worth of gains wiped out on some individual names:

TSLA -68%
META -66%
NFLX -51%
AMZN -50%
NVDA -50%
GOOGL -39%
MSFT -30%
AAPL -27%


DIS at 2014 levels
META at 2017 levels
NFLX at 2018 levels
CRM at 2018 levels
ADBE at 2020 levels
AMZN at 2018 levels
PYPL at 2017 levels
TWLO at 2018 levels
CRWD at 2020 levels
ROKU at 2018 levels
SHOP at 2019 levels
SQ at 2018 levels
DOCU at 2018 levels
OKTA at 2018 levels


The 2000 bear market lasted THREE years, with the worst year being year THREE.
2000: -10%
2001: -13%
2002: -23%

"The best thing that could happen to Equities is a CRASH
because we can just move on. Quickly, like in March 2020.
But no!

This time you have to suffer:
You have to pay for 10 years of federal reserve / government excesses
And by the end of this, you will be begging for a Crash."

- Marquis de Shrub

Keep your capital safe!

finance trader guy

[manaboutown]

:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:

[ureout]

I hope your advice is much better than your spelling


Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

[Robbb]

I hope your advice is much better than your spelling


Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

Yea but who cares, he makes some good points.

[Babubhat]

If you don’t have a longer timeframe you shouldn’t own stocks. It’s okay to bet against using ETF. Highly profitable this year.

[coralway]

There is always a bull market somewhere.

[manaboutown]

"More Market Pain Ahead" - Jason Trennert

WEALTHTRACK | Listen to Podcasts On Demand Free | TuneIn (https://tunein.com/podcasts/Markets-and-Investing/WEALTHTRACK-p998755/)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I hope your advice is much better than your spelling


Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

Ackshuahlee, i am at the end of my W-2 career, there are no more promotions, I almost told the VP for f* off with his full of crap lies, so the same goes for anyone else here. . i am not going to school, so i don't really care about spelling or spell check changes, or grades, or professors in prior lives thinking this is still a class room . .

so live with an extra a or other letter in a random word or two. . . besides, sometimes i spell words with Bahston ahkcents

[Babubhat]

Well a financial advisory firm in the villages news today seems to be doing well during the decline. Etfs are all you need.

No advisor should be a paid a cent if they can’t provide positive risk adjusted returns.

[manaboutown]

Well a financial advisory firm in the villages news today seems to be doing well during the decline. Etfs are all you need.

No advisor should be a paid a cent if they can’t provide positive risk adjusted returns.

You mean Skip West?

[rsmurano]

A lot of bad information in this thread.
For 1, if you are suffering, it’s your own fault. Everybody saw this coming. I got out last January when it was at its high. I hope this market crashes in 2023 because it’s going to be 1 heck of a buying opportunity later on. I do my own investing. If you are worried about riding the bad times out, you could have put trailing stop losses on your equities so if they go down X amount or X%, they would be sold. This takes the emotion out of buying and selling.
Or you could have sold everything.

As for the comment about all etfs being good or that’s all you need, is false. There are thousands of etfs and I bet right now most have fallen the same % as the market has. What is an etf but a collection of individual company stocks and the stock market is 10-30% down overall. Sure, there are some etfs making money because the company stocks that make up the etf are making money, but they are the minority.

This year, cash is king. I invested in 1 fund 2 different times this year and made close to 30% in 2 months each time then got out.

Some investors will tell you you can’t time the market which I agree. Like I said early on that I saw a disaster coming a year ago and acted on it. Now when things turn around, maybe the end of 2023 or maybe 2024, when I get back in, I will make a 30% or more profit instead of waiting for the market to make back 30% just to get even from the late 2021 highs.

[skarra]

A lot of bad information in this thread.
For 1, if you are suffering, it’s your own fault. Everybody saw this coming. I got out last January when it was at its high. I hope this market crashes in 2023 because it’s going to be 1 heck of a buying opportunity later on. I do my own investing. If you are worried about riding the bad times out, you could have put trailing stop losses on your equities so if they go down X amount or X%, they would be sold. This takes the emotion out of buying and selling.
Or you could have sold everything.

As for the comment about all etfs being good or that’s all you need, is false. There are thousands of etfs and I bet right now most have fallen the same % as the market has. What is an etf but a collection of individual company stocks and the stock market is 10-30% down overall. Sure, there are some etfs making money because the company stocks that make up the etf are making money, but they are the minority.

This year, cash is king. I invested in 1 fund 2 different times this year and made close to 30% in 2 months each time then got out.

Some investors will tell you you can’t time the market which I agree. Like I said early on that I saw a disaster coming a year ago and acted on it. Now when things turn around, maybe the end of 2023 or maybe 2024, when I get back in, I will make a 30% or more profit instead of waiting for the market to make back 30% just to get even from the late 2021 highs.


You mention how you cannot time the market, and then talk about your gains when you time it just right. That’s BS.

Stick with stocks for the long term (preferably in index funds), and keep cash for short term bumps like this. Then gradually sell stocks at other times to maintain your life style.

[Babubhat]

In the long term we are all dead. Another meaningless term that should be banished. Life events can change quickly.

[retiredguy123]

Most financial advisors are hypocritical. They will tell you that "no one can time the market" and that "past returns are not an indication of future results". But, they totally ignore those concepts when providing investment advice.

[skarra]

In the long term we are all dead. Another meaningless term that should be banished. Life events can change quickly.

Nah … long term is 20-30 years. I’ll still be alive by then if I’m lucky/unlucky.

I plan for the worst case - living a long life into my 90’s. Not that I necessarily want that.

[Captainpd]

I hope your advice is much better than your spelling



Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns
The spelling police. How are things in your perfect world

[RICH1]

At our Age you shouldn’t be in the Stock market ….. Financial Advisors are milking you & your money

Bonds & wine …

[Babubhat]

And why do people not factor in that money is worth less the older you get? Your health and mobility are going to go downhill. Few will cheat Father Time here

[Blackbird45]

If you enter the stock market and rely on the increase and the decrease on the value of a stock, you are a gambler. As many have said the market has a history of profitably in the long run. I myself do not rely on the volitivity of a stock but am satisfied with dividends. You invest in a utility that might only return around 5%, it's not like hitting the lottery but it's better than what the bank is paying and unless there is a total collapse of the economy it's a more reliable barometer where you will find yourself financially at the end of the year. If the original poster does not want to lose sleep, he should look for another way to invest his money.

[tvbound]

You mention how you cannot time the market, and then talk about your gains when you time it just right. That’s BS.

Stick with stocks for the long term (preferably in index funds), and keep cash for short term bumps like this. Then gradually sell stocks at other times to maintain your life style.

"You mention how you cannot time the market, and then talk about your gains when you time it just right. That’s BS."


I am no longer amazed at the number of people who claim to have perfectly timed the markets, when a downturn or upturn occurs.

I'm sure that posting anonymously on boards, without needing to show/prove these perfect moves and amazing gains...is simply a pure coincidence. lol

Although he is hated by many, I'll just stick with that guy in Omaha's advice and primarily buy/hold - as it has served me very well in the last 40 years.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

If the original poster does not want to lose sleep, he should look for another way to invest his money.

Haven't lost sleep in over 20 years, did looze sleep back in the 2000 -2003 bear market, as I doubled my money and then lost it all. . still writing off the losses on my taxes. . .

Back then they said, keep 6 months of cash for a job loss, how about 3 years of not being able to find a job? Happened to my boss at a different time period as well.

financial disaster can happen to anyone, one might not be able to see how because the future is always uncertain. . . the trick is to maintain capital, there will be down years. . .

And yes, i have talked with plenty of people who time the market for a living, have been in live trading rooms with people trading for a living. . . . many live in FL. It requires a certain personality and lots of dedication, but it can be done, and with python software, writing trading algorithms is becoming easier and easier. . though my learning python is slow. . . with this stupid 10 hour a day job. Quitting in June after my 401K is fully funded for the year. .

hint: the options trading and expiration cycle has a huge influence on daily / weekly price action.

trading guy

[Andyb]

Yep, another crash around the corner and with the latest wasteful $1.7 Trillion spending bill, inflation will continue.
Odd, that most of these companies you stated are the ones ruining and running this country.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I am no longer amazed at the number of people who claim to have perfectly timed the markets, when a downturn or upturn occurs.


No one times the market perfectly, but having a win loss ratio about 55% and having small losses and larger gains is all that is needed. Its not for everyone nor for many, but that doesn't mean no one. The outcome isn't binary, but it is easy to confuse a bull market with smarts, versus luck. . .

Even the longest investment streak with Bill Miller had a single down year, but higher every other year involves some buying / selling (or equity timing) of individual stocks. . And that's the job of an active management fund, to buy and sell stocks for gains and minimizes losses.

The phrase "No one can time the market!" is a marketing phrase to convince/sell to the mutual fund / active management customers to give portfolio managers their money so that they can do it.

If you don't think you are being manipulated by advertising, just repeating that phrase means you are.

[tvbound]

No one times the market perfectly, but having a win loss ratio about 55% and having small losses and larger gains is all that is needed. Its not for everyone nor for many, but that doesn't mean no one. The outcome isn't binary, but it is easy to confuse a bull market with smarts, versus luck. . .

Even the longest investment streak with Bill Miller had a single down year, but higher every other year involves some buying / selling (or equity timing) of individual stocks. . And that's the job of an active management fund, to buy and sell stocks for gains and minimizes losses.

The phrase "No one can time the market!" is a marketing phrase to convince/sell to the mutual fund / active management customers to give portfolio managers their money so that they can do it.

If you don't think you are being manipulated by advertising, just repeating that phrase means you are.

The most important word in my post is "claim," with the second most being "anonymous." lol

I do fully understand though, your point about the marketing phrases used to try and get people to use a company to manage their investments. I have found that there is no one who is more interested in my investments and financial stability than myself, which is why I have never used anyone else.

I also didn't mean to imply that I never change funds/individual stocks, as I do occasionally depending on what I see/think are trends. With the advent of the internet and the massive amount of info that is now available, even for those of us who are not privy to what is basically (but legal) 'insider info' and microsecond trades - I can't imagine paying someone to manage my money.

[OhioBuckeye]

Yea, & when will they start on our bank accounts, they’re coming !

[jimjamuser]

Yea but who cares, he makes some good points.
Yes, there are some very good points, and logically the longer the post, the MORE likely that there is an insignificant error or two. Short posts rarely have speling errors.

Tee Hee.........pun intended.

[Blackbird45]

Haven't lost sleep in over 20 years, did looze sleep back in the 2000 -2003 bear market, as I doubled my money and then lost it all. . still writing off the losses on my taxes. . .

Back then they said, keep 6 months of cash for a job loss, how about 3 years of not being able to find a job? Happened to my boss at a different time period as well.

financial disaster can happen to anyone, one might not be able to see how because the future is always uncertain. . . the trick is to maintain capital, there will be down years. . .

And yes, i have talked with plenty of people who time the market for a living, have been in live trading rooms with people trading for a living. . . . many live in FL. It requires a certain personality and lots of dedication, but it can be done, and with python software, writing trading algorithms is becoming easier and easier. . though my learning python is slow. . . with this stupid 10 hour a day job. Quitting in June after my 401K is fully funded for the year. .

hint: the options trading and expiration cycle has a huge influence on daily / weekly price action.

trading guy

I was not trying to put you down.

It depends on what you’re looking for and what is the final goal. My wife and I have been retired for over 12 years. We live in the Villages and have a comfortable life that is fully cover by our pension and social security. We also have 401Ks which we only draw the RMD that is required. As I said in an earlier posting we are not speculators in the market but rely on dividends that is totally reinvested. Eventually one of use will pass on and at that point the dividends will cover cost the of lost income. When we are both gone our children will be left with a decent inheritance. Granted we don’t have a 50’ boat or a second home in the Bahamas, but we have a happy life without any worries. If I had to do it over again and was younger there are legal ways to make guaranteed return on your investments other than the stock market.

[jimjamuser]

If you don’t have a longer timeframe you shouldn’t own stocks. It’s okay to bet against using ETF. Highly profitable this year.
It is possible to make money as a short-term trader. I was only able to do it once on only 1 stock opportunity. It was a long time ago when I devoted a lot of TIME to following the stock market. I watched Fast Money twice a day plus other financial shows. It got to be a lot of work. To be a short-term trader, you have to be an expert to the point of NOT having a life. It is MUCH better for your mental health to be a long-term trader. As Warren Buffet has said, "pick good companies that you understand and hold them FOREVER".

But, picking a portfolio of INDIVIDUAL stock is also difficult. That's why God made ETFs. And be aware that a MILD recession is predicted for 2023.

[jimjamuser]

There is always a bull market somewhere.
Today, there is a bull market FOR betting AGAINST a bull market.

[jimjamuser]

A lot of bad information in this thread.
For 1, if you are suffering, it’s your own fault. Everybody saw this coming. I got out last January when it was at its high. I hope this market crashes in 2023 because it’s going to be 1 heck of a buying opportunity later on. I do my own investing. If you are worried about riding the bad times out, you could have put trailing stop losses on your equities so if they go down X amount or X%, they would be sold. This takes the emotion out of buying and selling.
Or you could have sold everything.

As for the comment about all etfs being good or that’s all you need, is false. There are thousands of etfs and I bet right now most have fallen the same % as the market has. What is an etf but a collection of individual company stocks and the stock market is 10-30% down overall. Sure, there are some etfs making money because the company stocks that make up the etf are making money, but they are the minority.

This year, cash is king. I invested in 1 fund 2 different times this year and made close to 30% in 2 months each time then got out.

Some investors will tell you you can’t time the market which I agree. Like I said early on that I saw a disaster coming a year ago and acted on it. Now when things turn around, maybe the end of 2023 or maybe 2024, when I get back in, I will make a 30% or more profit instead of waiting for the market to make back 30% just to get even from the late 2021 highs.
To me, this was a high-quality post with a lot of good usable advice. I would just like to add my comment.........the ORIGINAL ETFs like SPY and QQQ will DEFINITELY go down as much as the general stock market because they ARE the general stock market. There are some ETFs that are a subsector of the market, like maybe all the coal stock or all the chips stock or etc that MAY go up or down more or less than say SPY.

[jimjamuser]

In the long term we are all dead. Another meaningless term that should be banished. Life events can change quickly.
Long-term is a LOOSE definition. It can be from 3 years to forever (theoretically since you may want to pass wealth down to your descendants).

[cjrjck]

An entire generation has grown up without truly understanding the risks of certain investments, especially the stock market due to a Fed policy where the focus has been on protecting equities at all cost. Only runaway inflation forced the Fed to change course and now reality is setting in for millions of people. History tells us the stock market will turn around at some point. Younger people should be patient. Retirees probably should not have been as exposed to the volatile stock market unless they could afford to weather a bear run.

[jimjamuser]

Yep, another crash around the corner and with the latest wasteful $1.7 Trillion spending bill, inflation will continue.
Odd, that most of these companies you stated are the ones ruining and running this country.
In today's modern world, many factors EXTERNAL to US control have been a large cause of inflation. The US economy swims in the sea of the WORLD'S economy and world geopolitical events.

[HandyGrandpap]

An entire generation has grown up without truly understanding the risks of certain investments, especially the stock market due to a Fed policy where the focus has been on protecting equities at all cost. Only runaway inflation forced the Fed to change course and now reality is setting in for millions of people. History tells us the stock market will turn around at some point. Younger people should be patient. Retirees probably should not have been as exposed to the volatile stock market unless they could afford to weather a bear run.

This is a great thread. Years ago one had to dig into the back pages of the newspapers to find stock market info. As noted above, the fed does have an eye on equities which thus puts a bit of the thumb on the scale for equities.

[Fastskiguy]

I'm not sure I remember a time when so many people were so sure a crash is coming. I mean, it's a given, right?

Joe

[Babubhat]

The it rarely goes down 2 years in a row crowd preaching on television. Let technical analysis guide you. zero emotion and algorithms rule,

Cheap money misallocates assets. The reversal has come. Hope is not a strategy

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

The last time my Intel stock was this low was back in 2014. Thankfully, I acquired the initial shares somewhere around 1989/1990, when the shares were a fraction of their current value. And they've doubled, and split twice since then.

Not impressed with their current value. But I haven't lost anything and I'm still ahead of the game.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I'm not sure I remember a time when so many people were so sure a crash is coming. I mean, it's a given, right?

Joe

I guess you missed the OP on that specific topic:

"The best thing that could happen to Equities is a CRASH
because we can just move on. Quickly, like in March 2020.

But no!

This time you have to suffer:
You have to pay for 10 years of federal reserve / government excesses
And by the end of this bear market, you will be begging for a Crash."

- Marquis de Shrub

What this means is that if the market went down 1/2% per day, the down would be relentless, day after day, and the human brain would extrapolate this trend to zero. .

The 70s had this type of bear market, 2000-2003 was similar. . .
looks like maybe every 20-30 years we have a relentless bear market

trading guy

[rsmurano]

If you don’t understand the stock market, you shouldn’t be in it and you shouldn’t pay someone to manage your money when you don’t have a clue what they are doing. Most financial advisors have a business model to make money whether you do or not. How many investors are paying advisors this year while you are losing big?
I’m a boglehead which means I mainly invest in a few (I think it was around 8) index funds mainly from vanguard that are low risk, high returns, low cost, high dividend, no loads, and very low turnover (for taxes) and I held some of these for 20 years until this year.
I also buy individual stocks that I know well like apple for example.
As for knowing what’s going on in the market, it’s not hard to know that you should have sold apple a year ago and you shouldn’t be in the Nasdaq this past year (in general terms). When apple gets into the $110-$120 area, I’ll buy, and if I miss it, I miss it.
Have you seen the multiple bear market rallies this year? You could have made good money if you got in and then got out before the market tanked again.
Timing the market: I will wait and will miss the early turnaround that will occur in the future (maybe wait for a 5% gain before getting back in) so I will not be able to sell at the all time high or buy at the all time lows, but it will be a few % either way before I react. Having cash gives you 2 benefits: you aren’t losing big right now (and when it gets bad you can kiss off dividends like what happened in the 2000 and 2008 downturns) and cash will give me the opportunity to buy funds/stocks at a much cheaper price than what I sold them for

[Fastskiguy]

I guess you missed the OP on that specific topic:

"The best thing that could happen to Equities is a CRASH
because we can just move on. Quickly, like in March 2020.

But no!

This time you have to suffer:
You have to pay for 10 years of federal reserve / government excesses
And by the end of this bear market, you will be begging for a Crash."


Oh awesome, no stock market crash next year, thanks! Finally some good news!

Joe

[tophcfa]

I have been expecting a big time crash for a while now that has not YET materialized. Since we should be able to live fairly comfortably on our savings, the pension from my employer, and Social Security, I have our savings portfolio positioned very conservatively (cash, the equity in our two homes, three cars, three golf carts, tractor, ATV’s, motorcycle, and other assorted toys, and a health inventory of gold). With the benefit of hindsight, I definitely got out of equities prematurely but have no regrets as I sleep well at night with no worries, especially during 2022. Another reason I keep our savings portfolio so conservative is because the future viability of both my pension and social security are directly linked to the health of equities. I don’t wish financial pain on anyone, but I would very much welcome a big time market crash. First, it would bring inflation to its knees, and second, it would be very nice to get back into equities at much more reasonable levels that should provide long term lower risk growth.

On a side note, does anyone remember the days when a responsible Federal Reserve managed interest rates so that savers could buy risk free Treasuries and earn a real inflation adjusted rate of return of 3 or 4 percent? How nice would that be today, I’d buy a bunch of Treasure notes and bonds if I could earn 12 or 13%. Oh well, life is good, time to finish packing the car so we can hit the road first thing tomorrow morning and get to our home in the Villages for the rest of the winter : )

[jimjamuser]

I'm not sure I remember a time when so many people were so sure a crash is coming. I mean, it's a given, right?

Joe
Well, there is the concept of, "self-fulfilling prophecy" which could come into play at any time. If enough people would suddenly THINK / BELIEVE that the market is going DOWN, then they would all rush to SELL their stock holdings ........and the stock market would drop and you have an instant recession.

[jimjamuser]

The last time my Intel stock was this low was back in 2014. Thankfully, I acquired the initial shares somewhere around 1989/1990, when the shares were a fraction of their current value. And they've doubled, and split twice since then.

Not impressed with their current value. But I haven't lost anything and I'm still ahead of the game.
You don't completely lose until you would sell at a point below your initial price purchase. But, you could lose PARTIALLY from the recent high to IF you sold today. It is probably too late to SELL, so I would HOLD like apparently, you are doing. Intel should go back up after a likely recession, which is predicted to be a minor recession.

[jimjamuser]

I guess you missed the OP on that specific topic:

"The best thing that could happen to Equities is a CRASH
because we can just move on. Quickly, like in March 2020.

But no!

This time you have to suffer:
You have to pay for 10 years of federal reserve / government excesses
And by the end of this bear market, you will be begging for a Crash."

- Marquis de Shrub

What this means is that if the market went down 1/2% per day, the down would be relentless, day after day, and the human brain would extrapolate this trend to zero. .

The 70s had this type of bear market, 2000-2003 was similar. . .
looks like maybe every 20-30 years we have a relentless bear market

trading guy
I have one LITTLE disagreement. Many people believe that the FED "CONTROLS" the US economy. My meager self and many real US economists believe that the FED merely "nibbles" around the edges of the US economy. AND it certainly does NOT control the world economy. Now it IS true that many other world countries seem to pattern their prime rate similarly to the US - today Japan and China being the exceptions. Nevertheless, I still see that as merely other countries "nibbling" around the edges of their economies. As I mentioned in a prior post I believe that the US economy swims in a sea of the World Economy. The US and the US FED do NOT control that World Economy. World events and world psychology about future predictions of good or bad economies are in CONTROL, not the Fed.

[jimjamuser]

If you don’t understand the stock market, you shouldn’t be in it and you shouldn’t pay someone to manage your money when you don’t have a clue what they are doing. Most financial advisors have a business model to make money whether you do or not. How many investors are paying advisors this year while you are losing big?
I’m a boglehead which means I mainly invest in a few (I think it was around 8) index funds mainly from vanguard that are low risk, high returns, low cost, high dividend, no loads, and very low turnover (for taxes) and I held some of these for 20 years until this year.
I also buy individual stocks that I know well like apple for example.
As for knowing what’s going on in the market, it’s not hard to know that you should have sold apple a year ago and you shouldn’t be in the Nasdaq this past year (in general terms). When apple gets into the $110-$120 area, I’ll buy, and if I miss it, I miss it.
Have you seen the multiple bear market rallies this year? You could have made good money if you got in and then got out before the market tanked again.
Timing the market: I will wait and will miss the early turnaround that will occur in the future (maybe wait for a 5% gain before getting back in) so I will not be able to sell at the all time high or buy at the all time lows, but it will be a few % either way before I react. Having cash gives you 2 benefits: you aren’t losing big right now (and when it gets bad you can kiss off dividends like what happened in the 2000 and 2008 downturns) and cash will give me the opportunity to buy funds/stocks at a much cheaper price than what I sold them for
I especially agree about MOST financial advisors. I agree about relying mainly on ETFs and Vanguard pioneered them. This is an EXCELLENT post that TV Landers should read and take to heart. It is "drop the Mike" material"!!!!!!

[jimjamuser]

I have been expecting a big time crash for a while now that has not YET materialized. Since we should be able to live fairly comfortably on our savings, the pension from my employer, and Social Security, I have our savings portfolio positioned very conservatively (cash, the equity in our two homes, three cars, three golf carts, tractor, ATV’s, motorcycle, and other assorted toys, and a health inventory of gold). With the benefit of hindsight, I definitely got out of equities prematurely but have no regrets as I sleep well at night with no worries, especially during 2022. Another reason I keep our savings portfolio so conservative is because the future viability of both my pension and social security are directly linked to the health of equities. I don’t wish financial pain on anyone, but I would very much welcome a big time market crash. First, it would bring inflation to its knees, and second, it would be very nice to get back into equities at much more reasonable levels that should provide long term lower risk growth.

On a side note, does anyone remember the days when a responsible Federal Reserve managed interest rates so that savers could buy risk free Treasuries and earn a real inflation adjusted rate of return of 3 or 4 percent? How nice would that be today, I’d buy a bunch of Treasure notes and bonds if I could earn 12 or 13%. Oh well, life is good, time to finish packing the car so we can hit the road first thing tomorrow morning and get to our home in the Villages for the rest of the winter : )
Good post and drive safely.