AIR BNB investment bubble popping will pop the housing bubble?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble | ZeroHedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/airbnb-bubble-popping-will-pop-housing-bubble)

Interesting, maybe. . .

[Velvet]

Oh, PLEASE, pop the damn AirBnB bubble in TV already! I’m already for a “lower” value on my house which doesn’t change a thing it’s hypothetical until I sell, but a higher quality of life, which is an everyday experience, for me.

[Randall55]

[QUOTE=Velvet;2250219]Oh, PLEASE, pop the damn AirBnB bubble in TV already! I’m already for a “lower” value on my house which doesn’t change a thing it’s hypothetical until I sell, but a higher quality of life, which is an everyday experience, for me.[/QUOTE

Agreed. Hope it stops sooner than later. People are predicting the starting price of homes in the Villages will be 1 million by 2030. If this happens, people will be homeless. A rising cost of a home affects the property taxes and upkeep. Can you imagine how much it will cost to put on a new roof on an older home? Greed destroys.

[JMintzer]

Agreed. Hope it stops sooner than later. People are predicting the starting price of homes in the Villages will be 1 million by 2030. If this happens, people will be homeless. A rising cost of a home affects the property taxes and upkeep. Can you imagine how much it will cost to put on a new roof on an older home? Greed destroys.

Who are these "people" predicting this?

https://img.memegenerator.net/instances/43319692.jpg

[margaretmattson]

Who are these "people" predicting this?

https://img.memegenerator.net/instances/43319692.jpg I do not believe it is merely a prediction at this point. Home prices are dropping. A few months ago, my daughter's home was listed for $525,000. Today, $480,000. She took too long to put it on the market. New(ish) home built in 2019. No tacky interior decor. Looks brand new. Nice floors, natural stone counters. 2500 sq ft. Beautiful home. She now has to decide to keep it on the market or take it off. Higher interest rates and cost of moving is difficult without a sizeable profit on her home.

There just aren't many buyers out there. Who can blame them? Why give up a home with a ridiculously low interest rate and buy one with a huge interest rate? Doesn't make sense especially if you have a family.

[JMintzer]

I do not believe it is merely a prediction at this point. Home prices are dropping. A few months ago, my daughter's home was listed for $525,000. Today, $480,000. She took too long to put it on the market. New(ish) home built in 2019. No tacky interior decor. Looks brand new. Nice floors, natural stone counters. 2500 sq ft. Beautiful home. She now has to decide to keep it on the market or take it off. Higher interest rates and cost of moving is difficult without a sizeable profit on her home.

There just aren't many buyers out there. Who can blame them? Why give up a home with a ridiculously low interest rate and buy one with a huge interest rate? Doesn't make sense especially if you have a family.

2500 sq ft under air? And she can't get $500K for it? What Village? Something seems off...

[margaretmattson]

2500 sq ft under air? And she can't get $500K for it? What Village? Something seems off... My Daughter's home! Not in the villages. It is in Trinity, Fl, about 2 hours from here. The OP is not specifically about any area just what is happening throughout the country. STR strategy is to hold on to the home for a year or so and sell it for major profit. Now, it is predicted they will sell for whatever they can get to alleviate having to pay the costs to keep homes for a longer, unknown amount of time. This will reduce the costs of homes (on average) throughout the country.

[BrianL99]

The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble | ZeroHedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/airbnb-bubble-popping-will-pop-housing-bubble)

Interesting, maybe. . .

Is anyone aware of the source of this article? The author's name is Tyler Durden.

Tyler Durden is a character in the movie Fight Club.

It's mind boggling how gullible people in TV & especially on this site, really are.

If it appeared on the Internet or TV, it must be true and it gets posted on Talk of The Villages.

This article was written by someone who has little or no understand of the real estate market, but instead, relies on buzz words and arcane arguments, to make himself appear credible. He's not.

Zero Hedge - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge)

Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/us-accuses-financial-website-of-spreading-russian-propaganda?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner)

Is Zero Hedge a Russian Trojan Horse? | The New Republic (https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse)

U.S. Reportedly Accuses Financial Blog Zero Hedge Of Publishing Russian Propaganda (https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/02/15/us-reportedly-accuses-financial-blog-zero-hedge-of-publishing-russian-propaganda/?sh=4faacc4ad2c4)

I'm shocked I haven't read a report on ToV this week, regarding the new search for the Loch Ness Monster.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Is anyone aware of the source of this article? The author's name is Tyler Durden.


LOL! since the inception of ZeroHedge, the owner of the site has always posted under the pseudonym Tyler Durden. . nothing new but the tone of the site and the author's desires. The site publishes all negative finance and other provocative articles from many anonymous or not sources. . :evil6: appeals to those whose brain overemphasizes negative than positive news, or susceptible to conspiracy theories.

And if you think this web site only posts serious or quality news and only serous news and not pot stirring low quality news at times. . . :popcorn:

[ThirdOfFive]

LOL! since the inception of ZeroHedge, the owner of the site has always posted under the pseudonym Tyler Durden. . nothing new but the tone of the site and the author's desires. The site publishes all negative finance and other provocative articles from many anonymous or not sources. . :evil6: appeals to those whose brain overemphasizes negative than positive news, or susceptible to conspiracy theories.

And if you think this web site only posts serious or quality news and only serous news and not pot stirring low quality news at times. . . :popcorn:
Interesting. As Sir Winston Churchill once so famously noted, “a lie can get halfway around the world before the truth can get its pants on”.

I’m no businessperson (thank goodness my wife is) but a whole lot of these prognostications smack not of fact and truth but instead, wishful thinking. Those who may be envious of acquaintances or neighbors who own rental properties (airb&bs included) may tend toward the “bubble” popping. House-flippers may tend toward the price increase side of things. And so on. It is called confirmation bias and we all engage in it to a point. We may WANT something to happen, so we gravitate toward those “experts” whose predictions line up with what, consciously or unconsciously, we desire.

For myself, I’m neutral. If my neighbor makes a bundle renting out four or five houses that he had the foresight to buy over the last ten years, more power to him. I dabbled in that market a few years back but am too darned old to even think about going through the headaches associated with it again.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

[Papa_lecki]

My Daughter's home! Not in the villages. It is in Trinity, Fl, about 2 hours from here. The OP is not specifically about any area just what is happening throughout the country. STR strategy is to hold on to the home for a year or so and sell it for major profit. Now, it is predicted they will sell for whatever they can get to alleviate having to pay the costs to keep homes for a longer, unknown amount of time. This will reduce the costs of homes (on average) throughout the country.

Home’s are priced lower due to interest rates - you can afford a lot more at 2.3% vs 7.3%.
If you refinanced in 2018, you’re not moving. When rates come down, prices will go up.

The AirBNB “bubble” is purely a function of 1) people buying a home during covid for remote work, then being asked to come back in the office, so they AirBnB’d the home - too much inventory and 2) inflation making vacations not affordable. So ABNB homes in resorts (Orlando, Jersey Shore, San DIego) have high vacancy rates, and owners can’t afford to hold them.

ABNB in the Villages is a different economy, people are still coming here (it’s not really a resort). Actually, the economy will make ABNB more valuable here, no need to buy a house for a 2 month snowbird visit, just ABNB.

[Caymus]

Something needs to change.

[Stu from NYC]

Do believe value of our home down due to higher interest rates.

[Velvet]

Interesting. As Sir Winston Churchill once so famously noted, “a lie can get halfway around the world before the truth can get its pants on”.

I’m no businessperson (thank goodness my wife is) but a whole lot of these prognostications smack not of fact and truth but instead, wishful thinking. Those who may be envious of acquaintances or neighbors who own rental properties (airb&bs included) may tend toward the “bubble” popping. House-flippers may tend toward the price increase side of things. And so on. It is called confirmation bias and we all engage in it to a point. We may WANT something to happen, so we gravitate toward those “experts” whose predictions line up with what, consciously or unconsciously, we desire.

For myself, I’m neutral. If my neighbor makes a bundle renting out four or five houses that he had the foresight to buy over the last ten years, more power to him. I dabbled in that market a few years back but am too darned old to even think about going through the headaches associated with it again.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

Absolutely disagree! The Villages was built from its inception to be residential homes. Not a rental business to soil the lifestyle.

[Randall55]

Home’s are priced lower due to interest rates - you can afford a lot more at 2.3% vs 7.3%.
If you refinanced in 2018, you’re not moving. When rates come down, prices will go up.

The AirBNB “bubble” is purely a function of 1) people buying a home during covid for remote work, then being asked to come back in the office, so they AirBnB’d the home - too much inventory and 2) inflation making vacations not affordable. So ABNB homes in resorts (Orlando, Jersey Shore, San DIego) have high vacancy rates, and owners can’t afford to hold them.

ABNB in the Villages is a different economy, people are still coming here (it’s not really a resort). Actually, the economy will make ABNB more valuable here, no need to buy a house for a 2 month snowbird visit, just ABNB. We shall see. None of us have a crystal ball. If we did, we would all be rich.

[Papa_lecki]

Do believe value of our home down due to higher interest rates.

Assuming a $3,000 monthly budget...

-2.65% mortgage rate in Jan 2021 could have bought you a home worth $641k.

-7.23% mortgage rate today could buy you a home worth $434k.

That's a $207k (32%) decline in purchasing power.

[bcsnave]

Assuming a $3,000 monthly budget...

-2.65% mortgage rate in Jan 2021 could have bought you a home worth $641k.

-7.23% mortgage rate today could buy you a home worth $434k.

That's a $207k (32%) decline in purchasing power.

Stu, what is this "mortgage" thing that speak of? I am not familar with that.

P.S. Please support my new business venture https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/2250369-post179.html

[Normal]

The Florida market is starting to saturate with investments. You can make better gains elsewhere.

[JMintzer]

Stu, what is this "mortgage" thing that speak of? I am not familar with that.

P.S. Please support my new business venture https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/2250369-post179.html

People selling their homes in order to buy in TV will be affected, resulting in less purchase power...

[Stu from NYC]

Stu, what is this "mortgage" thing that speak of? I am not familar with that.



Something we had when wearing a younger mans clothes.

[Stu from NYC]

Assuming a $3,000 monthly budget...

-2.65% mortgage rate in Jan 2021 could have bought you a home worth $641k.

-7.23% mortgage rate today could buy you a home worth $434k.

That's a $207k (32%) decline in purchasing power.

On a 3000/month budget would not want either home. Food would not be affordable.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I’m no businessperson (thank goodness my wife is) but a whole lot of these prognostications smack not of fact and truth but instead, wishful thinking.

By definition, prognostications are never facts nor truths, because they are about the future, and the future hasn't happened yet.

Moreover, the future is always uncertain, sometimes more uncertain than at other times. Anyone who states a human behavioral future event with black and white certainty, probably, but not certainly, wants to sell you something.

But discussions about the future, when framed as a probability or risk, has much more validity, but still not a certainty. . and a 50/50 probability, is basically an unknown probability, because both outcomes are even, ergo, unknown or random or binary, either it does or doesn't, which has no value.

so you are correct with the obvious. .

[JMintzer]

On a 3000/month budget would not want either home. Food would not be affordable.

Pretty sure that $3000 budget is a line item for housing costs. Not their total monthly spending allowance...

[Stu from NYC]

Pretty sure that $3000 budget is a line item for housing costs. Not their total monthly spending allowance...

Not clear from original post but if total income bank would be nuts to approve either mortgage.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Assuming a $3,000 monthly budget...
-2.65% mortgage rate in Jan 2021 could have bought you a home worth $641k.
-7.23% mortgage rate today could buy you a home worth $434k.
That's a $207k (32%) decline in purchasing power.

That's mortgage only, insurance and taxes by region affect the total purchasing ability. . in FL with insurance doubling, the home size affordability is also dwindling

DOesn't apply to all cash buyers, 40% of americans don't have a mortgage on their homes. . Also questionable application when moving from a higher cost of living location to a lower cost of living area. . also doesn't apply when downsizing boomer. .

so. . interest rates play a 60 % part, but not the only part and demand can overwhelm supply locally. . meaning none of this is applicable under certain constraints. . specifically moving higher to lower COL and using cash.

[Randall55]

Something we had when wearing a younger mans clothes.When mortgage interest rates are high, people pay cash for the home.

When interest rates are 2% many people get a mortgage. With a large sum of cash, you can invest and make well over 2% interest.

[tophcfa]

Time will tell regarding the prediction. Personally, I hope the prediction is wrong. I don’t want the market for investments in residential homes used for short term rentals to pop, I want it to explode like a nuclear bomb was dropped on it.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Time will tell regarding the prediction. Personally, I hope the prediction is wrong. I don’t want the market for investments in residential homes used for short term rentals to pop, I want it to explode like a nuclear bomb was dropped on it.

OK, well, hmmm, not sure you are clear enough. . .
but :agree:, the stock would be a great short!